The future of the Yankees: David Phelps

Before my recent post "Are there any impact players waiting in the NYY minors?", I had never heard of David Phelps. But, now I have a feeling that David Phelps will be the next Phil Hughes.

Let's start the comparisons: Hughes is 6'5, while Phelps is 6'3. Obviously those 2 inches make a difference, but it's close. Hughes had a 2.37 minor league ERA, while Phelps has a 2.41 minor league ERA. Hughes had a .795 winning % in the minors, while Phelps has an .800 winning %. Hughes had a 2.2 career BB/9 in the minors, while Phelps has a 2.1 career BB/9 in the minors. Hughes had a 0.3 HR/9 in the minors while Phelps has a 0.5 HR/9. The list goes on.

Obviously there ae some differences. Hughes is a much bigger man than Phelps, weighing 230 pounds compared to 190 and is much more of a power pitcher. He had a 10.0 career K/9 in the minors compared to Phelps' 7.1. Also, Hughes has allowed much fewer hits than Phelps, posting a 6.0 H/9 compared to 8.2 by Phelps. But, Phelps has improved that to 6.0 in '10.

So, I've compared him with Phil Hughes, but just who is David Phelps?

David Phelps was a 14th round draft pick by the Yankees in 2008 out of Notre Dame. He was assigned to the Short Season-A Staten Island Yankees, and started off with a bang. He went 8-2 with a 2.72 ERA and 52 K's in 15 starts and 72.2 IP. In '09, Phelps did even better, going 13-4 with a 2.38 ERA and 122 K's in 26 starts and 151 IP between the Low-A Charleston Riverdogs and the High-A Tampa Yankees.

Phelps has outdone himself once again in '10. He has gone 3-0 with a 2.13 ERA and 52 K's in 10 starts and 63.1 IP for the Double-A Trenton Thunder. He just keeps getting better and better.

After posting an untouchable 0.00 ERA in 3 games from the GCL Yankees in '04, Phil Hughes had a 2.19 ERA in '05, a 2.16 ERA in '06, and a 1.91 ERA in '07. Obviously Phelps isn't as good of a prospect as Hughes was since Hughes was a 1st round pick and Phelps was a 14th round pick, but Phelps' ERA dropping every year has to remind you a little bit of Hughes.

The one thing that might be going against David Phelps: his age. He's only 23 years old, but he's less than 4 months younger than Hughes. But, that might be a blessing in disguise. When he reaches the majors, he'll be more developed than Hughes was when he was called up at age 21, as evidenced by his horrendous '08 (0-4, 6.62 ERA) in what was supposed to be his first full major league season. But, will Phelps be anywhere near as good as Hughes? I think he has a shot to perform at a similar level as Hughes at the major league level.

If Phelps finishes off his great '10 in Double-A and then starts out well at Triple-A in 2011, I think he will be called up to the majors, probably as a reliever. We'll have to see what happens.

Is Marlins prospect Mike Stanton ready for the majors?

In this post I will answer 2 questions: Is Marlins outfield prospect Mike Stanton ready for the majors right now? and How great of a slugger has he been so far in his minor league career?

Stanton has really gotten off to a great start in Double-A Jacksonville. He has hit .301 with 11 doubles, 18 homers, 48 RBI, 34 runs, and a .431 OBP in 47 games. Stanton has led the minors in homers most of the year. Also, he's averaging over 1 RBI per game, which is amazing. In addition, he has posted a perfect 1.000 Fld% in the outfield. He has primarily played RF, but he has also played 2 games in LF.

The question with Stanton is his contact rate. As evidenced by Stanton's just 11 doubles compared to his 18 homers, Stanton really doesn't make a lot of contact, but when he does make contact, he very often hits homers. He is 52 hits so far in '10 and he has 18 homers. So, 35% of his hits are homers. Also, Stanton has homered at a rate of once every 9.6 at-bats, a very good rate. Stanton really has the potential to be a great power hitter in the majors, but will he make enough contact to maintain a good BA?

For his minor league career, 27% of Stanton's hits have been homers and he has homered at a rate of once every 13.7 at-bats. Let's compare those numbers to the numbers of some major league sluggers. During his major league career, 29% of Ryan Howard's hits have been homers and he has homered at a rate of once every 12.6 at-bats. For Prince Fielder, 23% of his hits have been homers, and he has homered at a rate of once every 15.4 at-bats. For Alex Rodriguez (not including his juiced years of '01 to '03), 22% of his hits have been homers, and he has homered at a rate of once every 15.3 at-bats. (Unrelated note: A-rod has 434 career homers without steroids, so in my opinion, he will need to reach 500 homers without steroids to be a legitimate Hall of Famer. He currently has 590 homers including steroids, so in my opinion, homer number 656 will be the homer that makes him a Hall of Famer.) For Albert Pujols, 21% of his hits have been homers and he has homered at a rate of once every 14.1 at-bats. For Ken Griffey Jr., 23% of his hits in his career have been homers, and he has homered at a rate of once every 15.6 at-bats. Stanton seems to be most similar to Ryan Howard, but maybe a few homers worse. Howard has averaged 44 homers per full season, so maybe Stanton could average 42 homers per full season. Still, that's a lot of homers and if he's anywhere near as good as Howard, he'll be a great player.

We'll have to see what the Marlins do. Stanton has great numberts so far in Double-A, but the Marlins might want to move him up to Triple-A first. Whether he is called up within a couple of months from now this season or callled up next year, he will show great power in the majors and be a Rookie of the Year candidate. The only question with him is his contact rate.