2011 MLB Preview: Chicago Cubs

102 years. The Cubs have gone 102 years without a World Series championship. In 2010, the Cubs weren't even close to even making the playoffs, let alone make a run at the World Series, going just 75-87, 5th in the NL Central. The Cubs are a different team now after acquiring Matt Garza in a trade with the Rays and Carlos Pena as a free agent while re-signing Kerry Wood. Will it be enough to propel the Cubs back to the playoffs?

Catcher:

The 2008 NL Rookie of the Year, 28 year old catcher Geovany Soto, finally came back to have a good season after a sophomore slump. Soto hit .280 with 18 doubles, 17 homers, 53 RBI, and a .393 OBP in 105 games. He was on the 15-day DL two separate times with a right shoulder injury, so you have to hope he can stay healthier because obviously, he's a better option than any of the Cubs' backup catchers. But, why did Soto go from a .285 BA in 2008 to a .218 BA in 2009 back up to a .280 BA in '10? It's nice for Soto and the Cubs that it happened, but why did it happen? What happened was his BAbip (batting average on balls in play) went from .332 in '08 to .246 in '09, back up to a .324 BAbip in '10. (The league average is .300.) But, why did that happen? Basically, what happened was that Soto had such an awful season in 2009 that it couldn't be predicted by any regular means. His LD% (line drive percentage) was an above-average 21% in his rookie season, but fell to just 16% in 2009 (the league average is 19%). In 2010, Soto's LD% came back with a vengeance, spiking all the way up to 25%. When Soto got a pitch to hit in 2010, he didn't often miss. But, that spike in LD% coincided with a decrease in IP% (in-play percentage). Soto's IP% was 63% in 2008, and actually went up to 64% in 2009. Soto traded some hard hits for more contact in 2009, and needless to say it didn't work out. In 2010, Soto traded quite a bit of contact for his high LD%, posting just a 58% IP%. (Keep in mind that Soto was putting the ball in play at a below-average rate from the beginning. The league average for IP% is 69%.) But, since that 58% IP% came along with the highest walk rate of his career (16.0% of his plate appearances compared to 12.9% in '09 and 11.0% in '08), it was certainly OK. How much can you complain about a .280 BA and a .393 OBP? In terms of his 17 homers in '10 though, he was very lucky to hit that many, needing a 12.1% HR/FB (percentage of balls hit to the outfield that went for homers). When he hit 23 homers in 2008, he had a 10.6% HR/FB. His HR/FB returned to right around neutral in 2009, falling to just 7.9%. That decline in 2009 had much more to do with his lack of hard contact rather than anythign else. Maybe his HR/FB will fall back down to around 10% in 2011, but if Soto stays healthy, he'll be OK. But, there's one more thing that could possibly be an issue: aLI (average leverage index- the average amount of pressure a player is under per game; 1.0 is average). In 2008, Soto primarily batted 5th, 6th, and 7th (but also occasionally 8th), and he was under a lot of pressure on the playoff-bound Cubs, having a 1.05 aLI. In 2009, Soto, despite his poor performance, batted primarily 5th, 6th, and 7th (but only almost never 8th), and had a 1.10 aLI. But in 2010, Soto batted primarily 7th and 8th, and had easily the lowest aLI of his career, .96. Soto took advantage of pitchers thinking that he wasn't such a good hitter anymore since he was batting in the latter part of the lineup, and was able to get some nice hits. We'll have to see where in the lineup Soto bats in '10, and if he bats higher up, he'll have to live up to the pressure. Soto is a decent defender, considering he posted a .995 Fld% at catcher in '10, but he had just a 22% CS%. He did allow only 2 passed balls. Because of his low CS%, Soto is just a decent defensive catcher. Overall, Geovany Soto was a good player in '10. He'll be a good player again in '11 as long as he can stay healthy, keep his LD% up, and survive higher-leverage situations if he's moved up in the lineup.

Soto will be backed up by Koyie Hill, who has been his regular replacement at catcher the past 2 seasons when he has suffered from injury or poor performance. Luckily for Soto, Hill was never able to prove himself as even a decent player when he has received starts. Hill, a 32 year old that came up in the Dodgers organization, hit just .214 in '10 with 13 doubles, 1 homer, 17 RBI, and just a .254 OBP in 77 games. It's not like Hill was very unlucky or something along those lines in '10- he had a .292 BAbip. Hill did have a 21% LD% and a 67% IP%, but he had a terrible 50.4% GB% (ground ball percentage). You could compare that to Soto's 36.0% GB% in 2010. Hill is an awful hitter, but most backup catchers earn their money defensively anyway. In 2010 though, Hill was awful defensively, posting a league average .992 Fld% with just an 18% CS% and 4 passed balls. Hill did have a .995 Fld% with a 40% CS% and just 2 passed balls in 2009, but that doesn't take away from how awful Hill was defensively in '10. Hill better rebound defensively, because his offense certainly won't (he has a career .215 BA in 256 career major league games). Hill needs a rebound defensively just to be an average big league backup, considering how bad of a hitter he is. Koyie Hill can give Soto an off-day every week or two, but if Soto gets hurt and he's forced to step in as the starter, the Cubs are in deep trouble.

First base:

From 2007 to 2010 with the Tampa Bay Rays, Carlos Pena's BA went down from .282 in '07 all the way down to .196 in '10. Can he rebound offensively with the Cubs? Pena, who will turn 33 in May, hit just .196 in '10 with 18 doubles, 28 homers, 84 RBI, and a .325 OBP in 144 games. Why did he hit just .196? He had just a .222 BAbip. But why did he have just a .222 BAbip? Turns out that Pena had the same problem in '10 that Soto had in '10- trading some hard hits for more contact. From 2007 to 2009, Pena had a 22% LD% and just a 49% IP%. In 2010, he had just a 17% LD%, but a 52% IP%. It's sort of ironic that Pena had his best IP% in a full season since 2004 with the Tigers in the year in which he posted the worse BA of his career. Pena had a 44.9% GB% in 2010. He had just a 29.0% GB% in 2009. Will Pena be able to get his BA back to at least back to the .227 BA that he had in '09 this season? If he wants to be a good hitter again, Pena has to hit more line drives. When he's at the plate, he can't worry about contact- he has to wait for his pitch and hit it well when he gets it. Everybody hates strikeouts, but Cubs fans while have to deal with Pena striking out around 160 times in 2011. If Pena can just get back to his approach from '07 to '09, he'll go down as a great signing for the Cubs. (In case you were wondering, Pena's 18.1% HR/FB in '10 was a bit below his 20.0% HR/FB the past 3 seasons, but Pena will definitely rebound in that regard. Defensively, it's hard to complain about Pena. He posted an above average .995 Fld% in '10 with above-average range (8.58 range factor per game [RF/G] compared to the league average of 7.41), but somehow he had a -2.5 UZR (don't ask me to explain ultimate zone rating). No matter what UZR says, it's hard to consider Pena a below-average defender. But, as long as Pena rebounds offensively, it doesn't matter too much exactly how good he does defensively. Carlos Pena needs to get back to hitting the ball hard in 2010, even if it costs him some amount of contact, and if he does, he'll end up being a great signing for the Cubs.

Pena will be backed up by the Cubs' primary infield backup, Jeff Baker, who is a natural second baseman, but who has experience at all 4 corner positions (although he'll primarily play just second base, first base, and third base). Baker, who will turn 30 in June, hit .272 in '10 with 13 doubles, 4 homers, 21 RBI, and a .326 OBP in 79 games. He had a .340 BAbip, but his career BAbip is .334, so it really wasn't that high (he has a 20% career LD%). Defensively, Baker posted just a .903 Fld% at third base, but was perfect in 26 games at second base while showing outstanding range (5.47 RF/9 compared to the 4.78 league average at second base), and he was also perfect in 4 games at first base and 4 in the outfield. For his career, Baker has a great .989 Fld% at second base with great range, a .939 Fld% at third base with above-average range, a .990 Fld% at first base with good range, and a .979 Fld% in 37 games in the outfield between left field and right field, showing poor range. Baker is a decent hitter, and he's very good defensively at second while being serviceable at the 4 corner positions. Jeff Baker is a good backup for the Cubs.

Second base:

25 year old Blake DeWitt, acquired from the Dodgers at the trade deadline in the Ted Lilly deal, hit .261 between the Dodgers and Cubs in '10 with 24 doubles, 5 homers, 52 RBI, 5 triples, and a .336 OBP in 135 games. DeWitt had a .313 BAbip, so he wasn't very lucky, but still, he hit just .261 with no other significant talents. He did have a 21% LD% and a 71% IP%, but no matter how many positive stats I say, DeWitt still hit .261. The one piece of goods news for the Cubs was that DeWitt had just a 3.2% HR/FB in 2010. When he had a closer-to-average 6.4 HR/FB in 2008, he hit 9 homers. DeWitt is not a good player, but maybe he would have at least some amount of value if he could hit double-digit homers. Defensively, DeWitt posted a below-average .979 Fld% at second base, although he did show slightly above-average range (4.83 RF/9 compared to the league average of 4.78). DeWitt was once an outstanding third baseman for the Dodgers, posting a great .969 Fld% at third base in 2008 (compared to the league average of .955) with a 3.10 RF/9 that was tops among NL third basemen. But, with Aramis Ramirez entrenched at third, DeWitt is stuck at second. DeWitt will be backed up by Jeff Baker, who could possibly take away significant playing time from DeWitt if his struggles continue. Blake DeWitt is a decent player at best for the Cubs.

Third base:

Aramis Ramirez used to be when of the best players in baseball. In 2006, Ramirez had arguably the best season of his career, hitting .291 with 38 doubles, a career-high 38 homers, a career-high 119 RBI, 93 runs, and a .352 OBP in 157 games. After the season, the Cubs re-signed Ramirez to a 5 year, 72 million dollar contract with a 16 million option for the 6th year. The first couple of seasons in the contract went well, with Ramirez hitting .310 with 26 homers and 101 RBI in '07, and .289 with 27 homers and 111 RBI in '08. But in '09, everything went wrong for Ramirez. He missed 11 games early in the season with a couple of minor injuries, but on May 9th, he suffered a dislocated left shoulder that sidelined him until July 6th. Ramirez also missed 14 days the rest of the year with various other injuries. Ramirez appeared in just 82 games, hitting .317 with 15 homers and 65 RBI. At least when he was healthy, he did well. But in 2010, while Ramirez was mostly healthy, the level of performance was just not there. Ramirez hit .241 with 21 doubles, 25 homers, 83 RBI, and just a .294 OBP in 124 games. Injuries have made Ramirez into a shadow over his former self. Ramirez had just a .245 BAbip in '10, compared to his .287 career BAbip. His low BAbip was because of just a 16% LD%, the lowest of his career. And unlike Soto and Pena, it didn't come with an increase in IP%. He had a 70% IP%, the third-lowest of his career. His career IP% is 73% and he had a 75% IP%. In my opinion and in the opinion of many others, there's no way Ramirez ever gets back to being a star. If everything goes right in 2011, maybe Ramirez will stay healthy and hit .280 with 25 homers and drive in 100 runs. But, chances are he'll only play in around 100 games hit around .250, hit maybe 17 homers and drive in 70 runs. Maybe even that's optimistic. Defensively, Ramirez posted just a .939 Fld% at third base in '10 with just a 2.21 RF/G compared to the league average of 2.54. Ramirez has always been a below-average defender (.948 career Fld%, .251 RF/G), but in 2010, he took that to new levels. Ramirez will be backed up by Baker. 2011 is Ramirez's contract year. It's unfortunate that in all likelihood, Ramirez will be fighting through an injury-riddled season and be signing a minor league contract with someone next offseason even though he'll be just 33 years old.

Shortstop:

Young shortstop Starlin Castro had a very good rookie year in '10, hitting .300 with 31 doubles, 3 homers, 41 RBI, 5 triples, 10 stolen bases, and a .347 OBP in 125 games. Castro, who will turn 21 on March 24th, was the the youngest player in the NL but still ranked 10th in the league in BA. Castro had a .346 BAbip in '10, but that was because of a 20% LD% and a great 78% IP%. Wait a second- he had a 51.3% GB%. How did he manage to hit .300 with such a high ground ball rate? Was he just really lucky in '10? Well, although you may not have noticed it because of Castro's low amount of stolen bases, but he's very fast. He stole 28 bases in his only full minor league season. Castro was among the league leaders in the NL with 25 infield hits. As long as Castro can keep beating out those infield hits, he'll be fine. Defensively however, Castro needs work. He posted just a .950 Fld% at SS compared to the league average of .972, although he did post slightly above-average range (4.33 RF/G compared to the league average of 4.31). He made the second-most errors in the NL (behind Nats shortstop Ian Desmond). The Cubs have to hope that Castro's poor range in 2010 was just an aberration. After all, he did have a 4.74 RF/G at shortstop in the minors. Hopefully the Cubs coaching staff can fix Castro's defensive problems. Castro is a good player overall for the Cubs, but while he looks to improve offensively in 2011, his poor defense could hold him back.

Castro will be backed up by Darwin Barney. Barney, a 25 year old middle infielder, hit .241 in 30 games for the Cubs with 4 doubles, no homers, 2 RBI, and a .294 OBP. Barney posted a .976 Fld% between shortstop, second base, and third base, with both of his errors coming at second base. At Triple-A Iowa, Barney hit .299 with 24 doubles, 2 homers, 49 RBI, 4 triples, 72 runs, 11 stolen bases, and a .333 OBP in 114 games. He posted a .970 Fld% at shortstop in the minors (exactly the league average). Barney posted just a 4.14 RF/G compared to the 4.27 RF/G that was the NL's league average at shortstop. You have to hope that his poor range at second was somewhat of a fluke, especially considering he owns a 4.32 RF/G in the minors. Barney was perfect in 2 games at second base. Darwin Barney doesn't seem like a great backup, considering his not a great hitter and he's only decent defensively, but at least he's a better defensive shortstop than Baker, and he'll be good enough as a backup for the Cubs.

Left field:

Alfonso Soriano, now 35 years old, had a bounce-back year of sorts in '10, hitting .258 with 40 doubles (his most since 2007), 24 homers, 79 RBI, and a .322 OBP in 147 games (his most since 2006). Soriano was healthy in 2011, missing just 6 games due to injury, and it paid off. It's unfortunate for him that he's nothing compared to the player he used to be. Remember when Soriano used to be a player that had a chance to go 40-40 every single year? Soriano went 39-41 in 2002, 38-35 in 2003, 36-30 in 2005, and then finally 46-41 in 2006. He was just 24-5 in 2010. Soriano had a .295 BAbip with an 18%, so there's no reason to think his BA will ever climb back up to his .277 career average again. Soriano had a 10.4% HR/FB in '10, a bit short of his 11.7% career HR/FB, so maybe Soriano's best-case scenario in 2011 has him hitting 30 homers. Soriano is still a decent hitter, but he won't be anywhere near the player he's supposed to be based on his contract (which still has 4 years and 72 million dollars remaining). Defensively, Soriano was pretty awful, posting just a .968 Fld% compared to the league average of .985 for left fielders, with poor range (1.70 RF/9 ocmpared to the league average of 2.17). It's sad that Alfonso Soriano, who used to be one of the best players in baseball, is now a decent player at best.

Soriano will be backed up by Tyler Colvin and either Reed Johnson or Fernando Perez, who are competing for the Cubs 5th outfielder job. Colvin, OK now after the broken bat incident, had a nice rookie season, hitting .254 with 18 doubles, 20 homers, 56 RBI, 5 triples, 6 stolen bases, and a .316 OBP in 135 games. The 26 year old outfielder had a .296 BAbip in '10 despite a 17% LD% and a 61% IP%, so he may never hit too much better than he did in '10. He also had an astronomical 15.6% HR/FB, so he might have hit homers at a lesser rate in coming years (not that he won't ever hit 20 homers- he received just 394 plate appearances in 2010). It's clear that Colvin just isn't that good of a player. Defensively, Colvin is pretty awful, considering he posted a .967 Fld% between all 3 outfield positions in '10 with poor range in left field and center field. He posted just a .952 Fld% in right field. Colvin seems like he'll be best suited in a backup role unless he makes huge improvements both offensively and defensively. Johnson, back with the Cubs after playing for the LA Dodgers in 2010, hit .262 in '10 with 11 doubles, 2 homers, 15 RBI, and a .291 OBP in 102 games. He did miss most of August with back spasms. He was actually perfect defensively in the outfield in '10 and even showed above-average range in left field. He's a solid backup as long as he stays healthy. Perez, acquired in the Matt Garza trade, spent all of 2010 at the Rays' Triple-A Durham, hitting just .223 with 11 doubles, 4 homers, 32 RBI, 24 stolen bases, and a .280 OBP in 116 games. Perez, who will turn 28 in April, hit .288 with 43 stolen bases at Durham in 2008, but then missed almost all of '09 after undergoing surgery for a dislocated wrist, playing in just 17 games in the minors and 18 in the majors. Maybe he was still suffering after-effects in '10.That must be the reason, especially considering Perez had a .287 BAbip. Defensively, Perez owns a .978 career Fld% in the outfield overall with solid range, so he's a decent player. In 37 career major league games (coming '07 and '08), he has not made a single error, so that's a good sign. Nevertheless, it doesn't appear that Perez is better than Johnson at all, so he'll probably be stuck in the minors to begin the year. The Cubs have solid depth behind Soriano.

Centerfield:

After signing with the Cubs in '10 after a career-year with the Texas Rangers, there was certainly some amount of doubt that Marlon Byrd would keep up his solid production, especially because not only was he leaving Arlington, but also he was turning 32. While maybe he didn't have as good year overall in '10, he certainly lived up to the billing, hitting .293 with 39 doubles, 12 homers, 66 RBI, 84 runs, and a .346 OBP in 152 games. Byrd had a .335 BAbip to help bring his BA up to .293 from .283 in '10. His LD% remained the same at 19% from '09 to '10, but the reason his BAbip went up from .308 to .335 was because his IF/FB (percentage of fly balls in the infield [i.e. percentage of fly balls that were popups]) shot down from 13% to 5%. Byrd improved his IP% from 73% in '09 to 75% in '10. Basically what happened was that Byrd made more contact in '10 than in '09 and more solid contact because although his LD% didn't increase, his IF/FB went down quite a bit. But, that increase in contact caused Byrd's HR/FB to go down from 8.5% to 5.6% from '09 to '10. That's why he went from 20 homers in '09 to 12 homers in '10. Still, Byrd is definitely a solid offensive player. Byrd is more well known for his stellar defense, and 2010 was no difference as he posted an above-average .992 Fld% in centerfield with above average range (2.69 RF/9 compared to the league average of 2.59). He also had 6 outfield assists.Byrd is a very good player on both sides of the ball for the Cubs. Byrd will be backed up by Johnson or Perez. Marlon Byrd's stellar play has made the Cubs look good for signing him to a 3-year contract.

Right field:

2011 is the last year of Kosuke Fukudome's contract. He better produce offensively if he wants to stay in the US. Fukudome, who will turn 34 in April, hit .263 in '10 with 20 doubles, 13 homers, just 44 RBI, and a .371 OBP in 130 games. How he couldn't manage to drive in 50 runs is beyond me. He actually had his worst BAbip in the States, just .287, but still posted his best BA. His 17% LD% was also his lowest in the US, and his 11% IF/FB was the highest, so pretty much what happened was everything evened out for Fukudome and he proved to be a decent player. However, his 9.6% HR/FB was easily the highest of his career. Fukudome proved in '10 that he's at least an average major leaguer offensively. Defensively, Fukudome was rock-solid, posting a significantly above-average .995 Fld% with average range (2.14 RF/9 compared to the league average of 2.17). He's a good player. He'll be backed up by Colvin and Johnson or Perez. Fukudome needs one more solid season to prove that he belongs on a major league team (if he doesn't want to return to Japan). He should be able manage that in 2011.

Starting rotation:

Ryan Dempster, who will turn 34 in May, didn't do anything besides put up another solid season in 2010, going 15-12 with a 3.85 ERA and 208 K's compared to 86 walks allowed in 34 starts and 215.1 IP. He allowed 198 hits, 8.3 per 9 innings, and 25 homers, a 1.0 HR/9. Dempster was actually pretty unlucky in 2011, allowing a .298 BAbip despite just a 14% LD%. He also allowed a good 47.4% GB%. Dempster only real problem, homers allowed (which led to his 3.99 FIP [fielding independent equivalent of ERA]), was actually a fluke, considering he allowed a 9.2% HR/FB compared to his career HR/FB to 7.8%. Dempster is really a good pitcher. Dempster is even a solid hitting pitcher. He did hit just .136 with 2 RBI, but he had 16 sac bunts. Ryan Dempster is a solid ace and deserves to start Opening Day for the Cubs.

Lining up as the Cubs' second starter in the rotation is 27 year old right-hander Matt Garza, acquired this offseason in the big trade with the Rays. Garza went 15-10 in '10 with a 3.91 ERA and 150 K's compared to 63 walks in 32 starts, 1 relief appearances and 204.2 IP. Garza alllowed 193 hits, an 8.5 H/9, and 28 homers, a bad 1.2 HR/9. It certainly wasn't a great performance by Garza, but it was his second-best ERA for a full season behind his 3.70 ERA in 2008. However, Garza posted his worst GB% in a season since 2006 (35.8%), and his worse FIP since '06 as well (4.42). Garza allowed a .273, certainly below the league average, but exactly at his average for the past 3 seasons. Could it be that Garza was just really lucky with the Rays? Garza allowed that .273 BAbip despite allowing a 20% LD%, a 69% IP%, and a 39% GB%. But, he did have an above-average 16% IF/FB. He also allowed just a 7.9% HR/FB during that time period. Also, you have to factor in that Garza is going from Tropicana Park, a pitcher's ballpark to Wrigley Field, which we all know is a hitter's park. It would seem that in switching between the two ballparks and factoring how, his ERA is going to start looking a lot more like his FIP's have been to the past 3 years (4.32). But, that would be if his BAbip actually returns to neutral. Considering Garza has posted a BAbip in the .270's for three consecutive years, will he be putting up those type of BAbip's for the foreseeable future? He better, or he'll be a huge disappointment for the Cubs.

Carlos Zambrano had a bizarre season in '10. He started the season in the rotation as the Cubs' ace, but after 4 starts in which he posted a 7.45 ERA, he was relegated to the bullpen. Zambrano posted a 4.15 ERA and 4 holds in 13 relief appearances between late April and late May. Zambrano then posted a 5.01 ERA in 5 starts after he returned to the rotation in June, but after that sub-par performance, the Cubs sent him down to the minor leagues for 4 relief appearances. But after he came back, he finally was himself again, he posted a 4.91 ERA in 3 relief appearances (primarily because he allowed a .500 BAbip) before he returned to the Cubs rotation once again. In 11 starts between August and September, going 8-0 with just a 1.41 ERA. At the end of it all, Zambrano actually had a good year, going 11-6 with a 3.33 ERA (his lowest since 2005), 117 K's, 69 walks, and 4 holds in 20 starts and 16 relief appearances. He allowed 119 hits, an 8.3 H/9, and just 7 homers, a 0.5 HR/9. He had a .309 BAbip, primarily because he allowed a 21% LD%, but he did have a 64% IP% and a 43.6% GB%. As long as he can stay consistently good, Zambrano will rise up to be the Cubs' ace once again. Considering that he's turning 30 in June and he has a vesting option in his contract if he finishes 1st or 2nd in the Cy Young voting this year, it would certainly be in his best interests and obviously the Cubs' if he can get back to being that great albeit crazy pitcher we all know him as. Good thing Zambrano is no slouch with the bat. Zambrano had another great hitting year for a pitcher in '10, hitting .231 with 1 homer, 6 RBI, and 2 sac bunts. It was a far cry from his two consecutive Silver Slugger seasons in '08 and '09 (in which he hit 4 homers each year), but it was still a good season for Zambrano. Carlos Zambrano is primed for a resurgence in 2011.

28 year old righty Randy Wells had a bit of a sophomore slump in 2010, but he still had a decent year, going just 8-14, but with a 4.26 ERA and 144 K's compared to 63 walks in 32 starts and 194.1 IP. He allowed 209 hits, over a hit per inning at 9.7 per 9, and 19 homers, a decent ratio of 0.9 per 9. Again, those are decent stats, but Wells went 12-10 with a 3.05 ERA, 104 K's, 46 walks, 165 hits allowed (9.0 H/9), and 14 homers allowed (0.8 HR/9) in 27 starts and 165.1 IP in his rookie year of 2009. What happened? Well, Wells allowed a .315 BAbip compared to a .292 BAbip his rookie year. His LD% climbed from 17% to 19%, but that should have been mostly canceled out because Wells IP% against him fell from 75% to 72%. His GB% also remained around the same, falling slightly from 47.9% to 46.9%. So what happened? His IF/FB and DP% (percentage of double plays out of opportunities) fell from 13% and 16% respectively to 9% and 7%. In addition, his LOB% dropped. LOB%, strand rate of base runners allowed, fell from 76.0% to 72.0%. When combine all those with Wells increase in HR/FB from 5.9% to 6.5%, that's why his ERA went up significantly. When everything evens out, hopefully Wells can get his ERA at least under 4.00 again. With the bat, Wells is a halfway-decent hitting pitcher, considering he hit .173 in '10 with 3 RBI and 9 sac bunts. Randy Wells is a pretty good pitcher for the Cubs.

Carlos Silva and Andrew Cashner are competing for the 5th slot in the Cubs rotation.

Silva had a decent year in 2010 despite missing almost all of August with cardiac ablation surgery, going 10-6 for the Cubs with 80 K's (a career high 6.4 K/9), and just 24 walks in 21 starts and 113 IP. He allowed 120 hits, a 9.6 H/9, and 11 homers, a 0.9 HR/9. Silva, who will turn 31 in late April did allow a .309 BAbip despite an 18% LD% and a 48.2% GB%. However, Silva did allow a 74% IP%. One potential problem with Silva going forward is HR/FB- he's bound to allow a few more homers in 2011 considering he allowed a 6.5% HR/FB in '10. Still, Silva is a decent pitcher overall and a perfectly fine 5th starter. But, what's worrying the Cubs and their fans has been Silva's performance so far this spring. Silva has an awful 15.88 ERA in 11.1 spring training innings, allowing 4 home runs. That's what has given Andrew Cashner an opportunity.

Cashner, a 24 year old right-hander, began 2010 so well between Double-A Tennessee and Triple-A Iowa, going 6-1 with a 2.05 ERA in 9 starts and 2 relief appearances that he was quickly promoted to the major league club. With the Cubs, Cashner went 2-6 with a 4.80 ERA, 50 K's, 30 walks, and 16 holds in 53 relief appearances and 54.1 IP. Other than a stretch from July 27th to August 23rd in which Cashner was the unluckiest pitcher in baseball, allowing a .515 BAbip, Cashner did well, posting a 2.42 ERA with a .243 BAbip before that terrible stretch and a 1.53 ERA with a .279 BAbip after it. If he remains in the bullpen in 2011, Cashner should be able to piece it all together and have a very good season. But how would Cashner do in the rotation? In his minor league career, Cashner appeared in 43 games, 39 of which were starts, and he went 10-7 with a 2.79 ERA, 153 K's, 80 walks, 139 hits allowed (7.1 H/9), and 3 homers (a minuscule 0.2 HR/9) in 177.1 IP. He did have a .271 BAbip (there's no website that lists how many sac flies Cashner allowed in the minors, so that .271 number could be a few points off), so he was somewhat lucky. But at Double-A, where Cashner spent the most time, he had a 3.15 ERA, although he did have a .253 BAbip. Looking at that, Cashner maybe would have a high-3.00's ERA if he was starter in the majors (based on his BAbip evening out and the level switch). That would be better than Silva. Cashner is pitching to a High-3.00's ERA so far in spring training, posting a 3.97 ERA in 11.1 IP. Cashner will be given a long look for the 5th starter job, and if he does win the job, Silva will surely be traded. If Silva is given the nod, Cashner will have a spot in the bullpen.

Bullpen:

Kerry Wood always wanted to come back. The 33 year old right-hander turn down more lucrative offers from several teams to come back to the Cubs for the low price of just 1.5 million dollars on a 1-year contract. Sounds like a bit of a bargain for the Cubs. Wood began 2010 the Indians, but during camp, he suffered a shoulder strain and was out until May. From May until mid-July, Wood really struggled, appearing in 23 games saving 8 of 11 games, and posting a 6.30 ERA before he re-aggravated his shoulder strain and was put on the DL again. Wood didn't go off the DL until July 31st, when he was traded to the Yankees for two players to be named later. Once he arrived in New York, everything changed. Wood was healthy and was a dominant force in the Yankee bullpen, going 2-0 with 9 holds and just a 0.69 ERA in 24 relief appearances. Kerry Wood, the dominant pitcher, was back, albeit as a setup man. He'll play the same role in 2011, setting up Carlos Marmol. Overall in 2010, Wood went 3-4 with a 3.13 ERA, 49 K's, 29 walks, 35 hits allowed (6.8 H/9), 4 homers allowed (0.8 HR/.9), 10 holds, and 8 saves in 47 relief appearances and 46 IP. How will he do in 2011? Overall in 2010, batters had a .272 BAbip against Wood. He allowed a league average 19% LD% and a below-average 39% GB%, but the reason that Wood was so good was that he allowed just a 57% IP%. That 57% IP% goes right along with his 56% career IP%. That's one of the reasons why Wood has been a great pitcher in his career, at least for short stretches (with another reason being his 10.4 career K/9). Wood was somewhat lucky another regard in '10- HR/FB. He had a 6.3% HR/FB in '10 compared to his 8.6% career HR/FB. But the real potential problem for Wood in 2011 revolves around his LOB%. Wood allowed an extremely high 5.7 BB/9 in '10. How did he managed a low-3.00's ERA overall in '10 despite that high walk rate? An 81.4% LOB%. Wood's career LOB% is 76.3%. Despite all this, when everything evens out, Wood could have as good a year or better in 2011 when everything evens out. Wood was not anywhere near as bad as his stint in Cleveland in 2010 or as good as his stint with the Yankees. He obviously won't put up an ERA under 2.00 or anything, but he could certainly put up an ERA under 3.00. The worst-case scenario (unless he gets hurt) is Wood putting up his 3.45 career ERA as a reliever. While the Cubs would obviously want Wood to have a great year, whether he has an ERA under 3.00 or over 3.40, he'll be an effective setup man to help bridge the gap between the starters and Carlos Marmol. Kerry Wood certainly won't put up the 0.69 ERA that he had with the Yankees last season in 2011, but as long as he stays healthy, he'll be a good reliever for the Cubs.

28 year old lefty Sean Marshall had an outstanding year for the Cubs in 2010, going 7-5 with a 2.65 ERA, 90 K's, just 25 walks, 58 hits allowed (7.0 H/9), 3 homers allowed (0.4 HR/9), 22 holds, and 1 save in 80 relief appearances and 74.2 IP. Marshall did this all while allowing a .297 BAbip. Marshall actually allowed a 23% LD%, but he had a great 52.2% GB% and he allowed a good 60% IP%. He also allowed a 74.3% LOB% that wasn't too far off from Marshall's career average of 72.1%. But, Marshall was extremely lucky in terms of HR/FB. He allowed just a 3.6% HR/FB compared to his 8.6% career HR/FB. He also allowed just a 4.9% XBH% (extra base hit percentage among batters faced) compared to the league average of 7.9% and his career average of 7.5%. When everything evens out, Marshall will certainly have a higher ERA, probably over 3.00. Even so, he's a good reliever, but he won't be one of the best lefty relievers in the majors in '10. Sean Marshall is due for a bit of a let-down in 2011, but he'll still be a good reliever for the Cubs.

I was at Thomas Diamond's major league debut this past season, an August 3rd start at Wrigley Field against the Milwaukee Brewers. Diamond, who will turn 28 in April, had a decent debut, allowing 3 runs on 7 hits in 6 innings, striking out 10 and walking 3 in a 4-3 loss to the Brewers. But, in his next 2 starts, Diamond allowed 9 combined earned runs in 7 combined innings. Those were his final starts of the year. Diamond was then relegated to the bullpen, where he did do better, but better is a comparative word. He went 1-0 with a 5.63 ERA and no holds. Is there any hope for Diamond in 2011? Well, Diamond had a .378 BAbip in '10, but he did allow an awful 25% LD%. According to that, it would appear the Diamond is just destined to be an awful reliever. However, Diamond allowed just a 54% IP%, a 65.2% LOB%, and a 9.4% HR/FB. When those all even out, hopefully Diamond will at least be a decent reliever. The best-case scenario for Diamond in 2011 is probably his 2009 season in the minors at Double-A Frisco in the Texas Rangers organization. At Frisco in '09, Diamond went 1-3 with a 3.63 ERA, 50 K's, 37 walks, 43 hits allowed (8.7 H/9), 3 homers allowed (0.6 HR/9), and 1 save (I can't find how many holds he had) in 32 relief appearances and 44.2 IP. Hopefully his control would be better though if he did put up similar numbers to that in 2011- he had an awful 7.5 BB/9. In '08 at Frisco, Diamond had a 72.3% LOB% and a 4.52 FIP. You have to think Diamond will be much better in 2011, giving the Cubs some decent long-relief innings, putting up an ERA in the low-4.00's or high-3.00's. Thomas Diamond should be a decent long reliever for the Cubs in 2011.

There are 5 relievers competing for the final two spots on the Cubs' pitching staff: Marcos Mateo, Jim Russell, Scott Maine, Jeff Samardzija, and Casey Coleman.

Mateo, who will turn 27 in April, had a good season in the minors in '10, going 0-1 with a 3.15 ERA, 45 K's, just 7 walks, 35 hits allowed (9.2 H/9), 2 homers allowed (0.5 HR/9), and 4 saves in 25 relief appearances, 1 of which was at Rookie ball, 16 of which were at Double-A Tennessee, and 8 of which were at Triple-A Iowa, along with 1 start at Tennessee. Mateo was promoted to the majors in August, and it did not go well. He went 0-1 with a 5.82 ERA, 26 K's, 9 walks, 20 hits allowed (8.3 H/9), 6 homers allowed (2.5 HR/9) and 1 hold in 21 relief appearances and 21.2 IP. He actually allowed just a .275 BAbip despite a 21% LD%. But that was counteracted by a 55% IP%. Really, the reason Mateo struggled was homers allowed, but of course he was unlucky in allowing 2.5 homers per 9 innings. He allowed an unbelievable 17.6% HR/FB. Wow. He also allowed a 9.7% XBH%. When everything evens out, Mateo should be fine and be able to post a low-3.00's ERA at the major league level. In addition to what I'm saying, Mateo has a 1.80 ERA in 5 spring training relief appearances and 5 IP, so he has a very strong case for making the roster. Marcos Mateo has the potential to be a pretty good reliever for the Cubs if he makes the team.

Russell spent almost all of 2010 on the big league roster for the Cubs, and it did not go well. The 25 year old lefty went 1-1 in '10 with a 4.96 ERA, 42 K's, 11 walks, 55 hits allowed (10.1 H/9), 11 homers allowed (2.0 HR/9), and 6 holds in 57 relief appearances and 49 IP. Russell allowed a .297 BAbip, allowing a 19% LD% and a 68% IP%, but he was unlucky in terms of LOB% and HR/FB. Russell had just a 60.4% LOB% and a 11.8% HR/FB. When everything evens out, Russell should be much better in 2011. Unfortunately for Russell, he's getting killed so far in spring training, considering he has a 7.56 ERA in 3 relief appearances and 1 start. His hopes for the Cubs roster are hanging by a thread. He better start improving a lot in the latter part of spring training if he wants to make the team and have a chance to atone for his bad 2010. But even if he doesn't make the team out of spring training, we will see him in the majors at some point in 2011. Russell might be bound to rebound in 2011 when his luck evens out, but because of his awful performance so far this spring, he may not get the chance, at least to begin the year.

Another lefty, 26 year old Scott Maine, had a very nice season in the minors in 2011, going 4-2 with a 3.14 ERA, 62 K's, 25 K's, 45 hits allowed (7.1 H/9), 5 homers allowed (0.8 HR/9), and 10 saves in 45 relief appearances and 57.1 IP. He was then promoted to the majors, and he continued to pitch well, going 0-0 with a 2.08 ERA, 11 K's, 5 walks, 9 hits allowed (6.2 H/9), 1 homer allowed (0.7 HR/9), and 3 holds in 13 relief appearances and 13 IP. He didn't appear in too many pressure situations, having just a .5 aLI, but he actually allowed a .000 BA against him in the at-bats against him in high leverage and medium leverage situations. Overall in the majors in '10, Maine allowed just a .216 BAbip, even though he allowed an 18% LD% and a 69% IP%. But, Maine allowed a great 55.3% GB%. Maine was lucky in terms of BAbip, but not exceedingly lucky. Maine was also lucky in terms of LOB%, having a pretty high 79.4% LOB%. His HR/FB was around neutral at 6.7%. When everything evens out, Maine will certainly have a higher ERA in '10, but he should still post an ERA under 3.00 (consider that his ERA would have to go up .92 to get to 3.00). Maine has allowed a 6.00 ERA in 6 relief appearances and 6 IP, but he still has a good chance of making the Cubs' roster. Scott Maine has a chance to be a good reliever for the Cubs in 2011 if he can make the team.

Samardzija, the 26 year old right-hander and ex. Notre Dame wide receiver, had a very disappointing season in '10. At Triple-A Iowa, Samardzija was just decent, going 11-3 with a 4.37 ERA, 102 K's, 67 walks, 86 hits allowed (7.0 H/9), and 9 homers allowed (0.7 HR/9) in 20 starts, 15 relief appearances, and 111.1 IP. In 7 major league games, 3 of which were starts, Samardzija was terrible, posting an 8.38 ERA, and walking 20 while striking out just 9. Samardzija was a promising young reliever after posting a 2.28 ERA in 26 major league relief appearances in '08, but since then, Samardzija has a 7.83 ERA in 22 relief appearances and 5 starts in the majors. What happened? While his BAbip, LD%, and IP% have varied, his HR/FB, LOB%, and GB% have gone in the wrong directions. His HR/FB was actually 0.0 in '08, but has been 10.9% since then. His LOB% was 70% in '08, but went down to 63.2% in '09 and just 56.2% in '10. His GB% went down from 45.7% to 41.2% to just 30.7% in '10. These trends are certainly not encouraging. Will Samardzija ever be an effective big league reliever? The Cubs certainly hope so, but it's certainly no sure thing. Samardzija has a 6.43 ERA in 7 spring training relief appearances and 7 IP, so it's unlikely that he'll make the Cubs out of spring training. He better get back on track at Triple-A Iowa in '11. Jeff Samardzija is unlikely to help the Cubs out of the bullpen in 2011.

Coleman, a 23 year old righty, had a pretty good season as as starter at High-A Iowa in '10, going 10-7 with a 4.07 ERA, 59 K's, and 35 walks in 20 starts and 117.1 IP. He allowed 106 hits, an 8.1 H/9, and 10 homers, a 0.8 HR/9. Coleman's problem is that he doesn't strike anybody out. He had just a 4.5 K/9 in 2010 and owns just a 5.2 K/9 for his career. Coleman also appeared in 12 major league games, 8 of which were starting, going 4-2 with a 4.11 ERA, 27 K's, and 25 walks in 57 IP. He actually had a 3.33 ERA as a starter compared to an 8.64 ERA as a reliever, although is K/9 went up from 4.1 as a starter to 5.4 as a reliever. Coleman is a decent starter, but the Cubs don't have any room in their rotation for Coleman and he doesn't profile well in the bullpen. Coleman has a 6.43 ERA in 3 relief appearances and 7 IP so far in spring training. Casey Coleman is going to be a 5th starter for the Cubs or some other major league team some day, but that's probably not going to happen in 2011.

I would guess that Mateo and Main make the Cubs' bullpen out of spring training.

Closer:

28 year old hard-throwing right-hander Carlos Marmol had his first great season as a closer in '10, going 2-3 with a 2.55 ERA, 138 K's (an unbelievable 16.0 K/9), 52 walks (6.0 BB/9), 40 hits allowed (just a 4.6 H/9), just 1 homer allowed (0.1 HR/9), and 38 saves (5 blown saves) in 77 relief appearances and 77.2 IP. Is Marmol due for an encore in 2011? You would think that because Marmol allowed just a 4.6 H/9, he was extremely lucky in terms of BAbip. He was not at all, allowing a .293 BAbip, the highest of his career. Marmol did allow a league-average 19% LD%, but he allowed just a 40% IP% that easily canceled that out. Marmol was just plain incredible in terms of allowing so few hits. However, Marmol was lucky in allowing just 1 homer, having a 1.4% HR/FB. He also allowed just a 3.3% XBH%. But, Marmol wasn't necessarily that lucky. He had a 2.5% HR/FB and a 4.5% XBH% in 2009. Marmol just did not allow very much hard contact. Marmol might not be quite as good in 2011, but he should still have a great year and post an ERA under 2.90 once again, maybe even reaching 40 saves. Unless Marmol melts down and starts walking every single batter (like he did in 2009, allowing a 7.9 BB/9), Marmol will have another great year in 2011. Carlos Marmol is a great closer for the Cubs.

Overview:

The Cubs will be a good team in 2011. They have a good lineup, although their defense isn't great. The top three in their rotation are very good, and the back end is pretty good as well. Their bullpen is solid, with Marmol slamming the door. The Cubs are a good team, not a great team, but they still have a chance to win the NL Central or the NL Wild Card. Will they make the playoffs? Again, they have a chance, but it certainly won't be easy.

2010 Record: 75-87

Prediction: 87-75, 3rd in NL Central

The Cubs will make the playoffs if...Soriano and Ramirez show some flashes of their former glory and have greats years, Dempster has another very good year, Garza steps up for his new team, Zambrano is a dependable starter for the entire season, Wood has another very good year as a setup man, Marmol has an even better year as a closer.