Dan Uggla is a great player right now. He is the only second baseman in MLB history to hit 30 homers in 4 different seasons. In '10, he set career highs with 33 homers, 105 RBI, a .287 BA, and a .369 OBP. Although there are questions about his defense, his great offense at 2B certainly outweighs those concerns. It seems like a no-brainer that the Marlins should sign him long-term. But, Uggla is going to be 31 on March 11th. Still, the Marlins offered Uggla a 4-year, 48 million dollar contract extension and he declined it. Now the Marlins are looking to possibly trade Uggla. What should they do?
If Uggla was 2 or more years younger, I have no doubt that the Marlins would add in the 5th year to the contract to satisfy him. But, he's 31. Maybe he'll have a few more amazing seasons in him, but his decline is coming sooner rather than later. Late bloomer stories are nice, but in sports, they put you at a disadvantage. Again, don't get me wrong, Uggla is a great player, but he's not some 25 year old hotshot 2nd baseman. If he was 25 right now, the Marlins would offer him the same 6-year, 70 million dollar extension that they gave to Hanley Ramirez at age 25. Even if he was 28 like Robinson Cano is right now (Cano's birthday was October 22nd), he would get an enormous extension like the one that Cano is about to get from the Yankees. Even if he was one year younger he would have had more leverage in the negotiation and the Marlins would have offered him a bigger deal! But, he's 31. It's certainly unfortunate for him, but it's true.
Really, it's all the Arizona Diamondbacks' fault. The Diamondbacks drafted Uggla in the 11th round of the 2001 draft out of the University of Memphis. They started him at Short Season-A Yakima and he did pretty well, hitting .277 with 21 doubles, 5 homers, 40 RBI, 8 SB, and a .341 in 72 games. In '02, Uggla was promoted to Low-A South Bend, but he struggled hitting just .199 with 5 doubles, 2 homers, 10 RBI, 0 SB, and a .299 OBP in 53 games. Why did the Diamondbacks leave him there for 53 games? After 53 games, they finally understood that he needed a change of scenery, and they promoted him to High-A Lancaster, where he showed some improvement, hitting .228 with 7 doubles, 3 homers, 16 RBI, 3 SB, and a .311 OBP in 54 games. In '03, the Diamondbacks sent Uggla back to Lancaster at age 23, and the move certainly paid off, as he hit .290 with 31 doubles, 23 homers, 90 RBI, 7 triples, 24 SB, 104 runs, and a .355 OBP in 134 games. Uggla was able to develop some confidence and finally tap into his potential.
2004 was when the Diamondbacks messed up Uggla. They sent Uggla back to Lancaster to begin the year right after he dominated at that level. Hitting .290 with 23 homers isn't enough? And they kept him there for 37 games! After 37 dominant games in which Uggla hit .336, they finally promoted him to Double-A El Paso, where he hit .258 with 12 doubles, 4 homers, 30 RBI, 10 SB, and a .301 OBP in 83 games. Are those good numbers? Certainly not, but what if he had 37 more games to adjust? In '05, he hit .297 at Double-A Tennessee (the affiliate moved) with 33 doubles, 21 homers, 87 RBI, 15 SB, 81 runs, and a .378 OBP in 135 games. After the season, Uggla was left off the D-backs' 40-man roster, and he was selected by the Marlins in the Rule 5 draft, starting a great career.
What if Uggla had been promoted to Double-A to begin '04? Well, let me present these 2 scenarios: Uggla struggles to begin '04 at Double-A, but he adjusts and ends up hitting .280 with 15 homers. He is promoted to the big league roster in September. He is the D-backs' starting 2nd baseman in '05 (moving Craig Counsell to SS and forcing Royce Clayton on the bench), and the D-backs don't trade for Orlando Hudson. Uggla becomes the team's star 2nd baseman, winning the NL Rookie of the Year in '05, beating out Ryan Howard, and they lock him up long term in either '07, '08, or '09. Uggla would have gotten an extra season in the majors and been more likely to get a nice long-term deal. Or, let's say Uggla struggles mightily both offensively and defensively in September of '04 and the D-backs elect to keep him off the 40-man roster. The Marlins draft him in the Rule 5 draft, and Uggla still wins the NL Rookie of the Year in '05, starting a great major league career.
Bottom line, Uggla should have been a starter in the majors one year earlier and it's unfortunate for him that it didn't happen because he isn't getting as much money as he would have if he was one year younger.
Monday, November 15, 2010
Saturday, November 13, 2010
Maybin to Padres
The Florida Marlins have traded CF Florida Maybin to the Padres in exchange for relievers Ryan Webb and Edward Mujica. This comes right on the heels of their trade with the Red Sox in which they traded LHP Andrew Miller, who, like Maybin, was also acquired in the Miguel Cabrera trade, and received another reliever, lefty Dustin Richardson. Full post on that trade here: Marlins-Red Sox trade (see sidebar).
Maybin, the 10th overall pick by the Tigers in '05, has yet to show his enormous potential at the major league level. Maybin is a five-tool prospect, but none of those tools have shown up consistently in the majors. In '10 at age 23, he hit just .234 with 7 doubles, 8 homers, 28 RBI, 9 SB, and a .302 OBP in 82 games. He posted a below-average .982 Fld% in centerfield, although he did show great range and post 4 outfield assists. He hit .250 with 12 doubles, 4 homers, 13 RBI, just 1 SB, and a .318 OBP in 54 games in '09. That season, he posted a .992 Fld% in CF, but just 1 outfield assist. The thing about Maybin is that if you look at his minor league stats, you would think that he would be a star. In 114 Double-A games over 2 seasons, Maybin hit .283 with 16 doubles, 17 homers, 57 RBI, 8 triples, 21 SB, 82 runs, and a .384 OBP. Any team would like a player like that in the majors. At Triple-A in 115 games over 2 seasons, Maybin hit .325 with 24 doubles, 7 homers, 62 RBI, 10 triples, 13 SB, 65 runs, and a .401 OBP. That also would be a great season! The Padres hope that Maybin will finally harness his potential and put up seasons like the minor league stats above in the majors.
Webb had a very good season in '10, going 3-1 with a 2.90 ERA and 44 K's in 54 relief appearances and 59 IP. He didn't strike out too many batters (just 6.7 per 9), but walked just 19. His one problem was hits allowed- he allowed 64 hits, well over a hit per inning. The Padres must think that he won't be able to post an ERA under 3.00 again while allowing so many hits.
Mujica posted a ridiculous 12.0 K/BB ratio in '10 (72 K's versus 6 walks in 69.2 IP), but he went just 2-1 with a 3.62 ERA in 49 relief appearances. He allowed less than a hit per inning, but he allowed 14 home runs. Mujica is the kind of reliever that has such great control that you think he could be something special. But, he has to work on his command within the strike zone. If the Marlins could straighten him out, he could be a closer candidate considering Leo Nunez's struggles in '10 (3.46 ERA, 8 blown saves).
This trade makes sense on both sides. The Padres got the CF that they desperately needed while the Marlins got some needed bullpen help. The Marlins traded a player who has had his struggles while the Padres traded players that have done well in the majors, but have particular problems. I think that this will be an OK trade for the Marlins- Webb and Mujica are good relievers, but this trade could be a steal for the Padres if Maybin lives up to his potential.
Maybin, the 10th overall pick by the Tigers in '05, has yet to show his enormous potential at the major league level. Maybin is a five-tool prospect, but none of those tools have shown up consistently in the majors. In '10 at age 23, he hit just .234 with 7 doubles, 8 homers, 28 RBI, 9 SB, and a .302 OBP in 82 games. He posted a below-average .982 Fld% in centerfield, although he did show great range and post 4 outfield assists. He hit .250 with 12 doubles, 4 homers, 13 RBI, just 1 SB, and a .318 OBP in 54 games in '09. That season, he posted a .992 Fld% in CF, but just 1 outfield assist. The thing about Maybin is that if you look at his minor league stats, you would think that he would be a star. In 114 Double-A games over 2 seasons, Maybin hit .283 with 16 doubles, 17 homers, 57 RBI, 8 triples, 21 SB, 82 runs, and a .384 OBP. Any team would like a player like that in the majors. At Triple-A in 115 games over 2 seasons, Maybin hit .325 with 24 doubles, 7 homers, 62 RBI, 10 triples, 13 SB, 65 runs, and a .401 OBP. That also would be a great season! The Padres hope that Maybin will finally harness his potential and put up seasons like the minor league stats above in the majors.
Webb had a very good season in '10, going 3-1 with a 2.90 ERA and 44 K's in 54 relief appearances and 59 IP. He didn't strike out too many batters (just 6.7 per 9), but walked just 19. His one problem was hits allowed- he allowed 64 hits, well over a hit per inning. The Padres must think that he won't be able to post an ERA under 3.00 again while allowing so many hits.
Mujica posted a ridiculous 12.0 K/BB ratio in '10 (72 K's versus 6 walks in 69.2 IP), but he went just 2-1 with a 3.62 ERA in 49 relief appearances. He allowed less than a hit per inning, but he allowed 14 home runs. Mujica is the kind of reliever that has such great control that you think he could be something special. But, he has to work on his command within the strike zone. If the Marlins could straighten him out, he could be a closer candidate considering Leo Nunez's struggles in '10 (3.46 ERA, 8 blown saves).
This trade makes sense on both sides. The Padres got the CF that they desperately needed while the Marlins got some needed bullpen help. The Marlins traded a player who has had his struggles while the Padres traded players that have done well in the majors, but have particular problems. I think that this will be an OK trade for the Marlins- Webb and Mujica are good relievers, but this trade could be a steal for the Padres if Maybin lives up to his potential.
Marlins-Red Sox trade
In a swap of left-handed pitchers from the 2006 draft the Florida Marlins have traded Andrew Miller, the 6th overall pick from that draft by the Detroit Tigers, to the Boston Red Sox for Dustin Richardson, a 5th round pick.
Miller, acquired by the Marlins in the Miguel Cabrera trade, has appeared in the majors for parts of the last 5 seasons, but has posted just a 5.84 ERA, including a 8.54 ERA in 7 starts and 2 relief appearances for the Marlins in '10. Miller's main downfall has been hits allowed- he has allowed 10.3 hits per 9 innings in the majors including 14.1 hits per 9 in '10. Miller, who once had so much promise, even posted a 5.35 ERA and 9.4 hits allowed per 9 in the minors in '10. He is just 25, but he's just gone straight down.
Richardson, a reliever, had a good season in '10. going 3-0 with a 2.66 ERA in 32 relief appearances in the minors in '10, striking out 56 in 44 IP, and going 0-0 with a 4.15 ERA in 26 relief appearances for the Red Sox, striking out 12 in 13 IP. He's a decent reliever, and at 26 going on 27, he could have a bright future as a lefty specialist.
The Marlins must feel that Miller can't be fixed. His college stats (27-9 with a 2.76 ERA at UNC), showed his tremendous potential, but he's just been a disaster in the majors. They got what they thought that was the best possible value that they could get for him. The Red Sox must think that they can fix Miller. They basically just traded away a pitcher that will likely go straight to the Marlins' bullpen for a project. Can Miller be fixed? As a Yankee fan, I sure hope not.
Miller, acquired by the Marlins in the Miguel Cabrera trade, has appeared in the majors for parts of the last 5 seasons, but has posted just a 5.84 ERA, including a 8.54 ERA in 7 starts and 2 relief appearances for the Marlins in '10. Miller's main downfall has been hits allowed- he has allowed 10.3 hits per 9 innings in the majors including 14.1 hits per 9 in '10. Miller, who once had so much promise, even posted a 5.35 ERA and 9.4 hits allowed per 9 in the minors in '10. He is just 25, but he's just gone straight down.
Richardson, a reliever, had a good season in '10. going 3-0 with a 2.66 ERA in 32 relief appearances in the minors in '10, striking out 56 in 44 IP, and going 0-0 with a 4.15 ERA in 26 relief appearances for the Red Sox, striking out 12 in 13 IP. He's a decent reliever, and at 26 going on 27, he could have a bright future as a lefty specialist.
The Marlins must feel that Miller can't be fixed. His college stats (27-9 with a 2.76 ERA at UNC), showed his tremendous potential, but he's just been a disaster in the majors. They got what they thought that was the best possible value that they could get for him. The Red Sox must think that they can fix Miller. They basically just traded away a pitcher that will likely go straight to the Marlins' bullpen for a project. Can Miller be fixed? As a Yankee fan, I sure hope not.
Friday, November 12, 2010
Will Jesus Montero be a servicable major league catcher?
Everyone loves 2011 rookie Jesus Montero's bat, but not everyone is sure about his defense. Montero will likely be a Yankee for a long time, but will he be the starting catcher for the Yankees for that period of time as well? No matter what your opinion is off Jorge Posada and his defense, he was starting catcher for the Yankees for 13 seasons. That's certainly a long time. Will Montero even be the starting catcher for 5 years?
Let's talk about offensive-minded catchers. Posada and Jason Varitek have played their whole careers under that category. Everyone wants that Johnny Bench or Joe Mauer who does it all- both win Gold Gloves and win those homer titles or batting titles. But, are we happy with those Carlton Fisk's and Mike Piazza's who maybe will win one Gold Glove if they're lucky (Fisk was certainly lucky his rookie year), but will be a feared hitter who keeps winning Silver Sluggers. What's interesting is that the best catchers do both. Neither Fisk and Piazza won a batting title or a homer title. Do you know the only offensive categories that Piazza ever led the league in? Well at first glance at Piazza's page on baseball-reference.com, just OPS+ in '95 and '97 and double playsg grouded into in '99. Sure, upon further review Piazza led the NL in offensive WAR in 1997 and AB per homer in '95, but wow. When we think of Mike Piazza, we think of one of the greatest catchers to play the game (if not the incident with Roger Clemens). How could he lead the league in so few offensive categories? Without even going into more complicated stats, Mauer has led the AL in batting 3 times, OBP once, OPS once, OPS+ once, and even sac flies once. And he has a lot of his career still ahead of him! The fans like offensive catchers. You get mad when they mess up defensively, but you love their homers and other big hits. But, you'd much rather have a two-way catcher. They play well defensively AND get those big hits. Montero is obviously an offensive catcher. Do the Yankees have a two-way catcher coming up? I want to say Austin Romine, but he apparently can't catch the ball. Gary Sanchez and J.R. Murphy might be good defensive catchers eventually, but they're quite a while away. The Yankees, at least for the next few seasons, will be stuck with an offensive catcher again.
But, the Yankees have had a history of offensive catchers. From Bill Dickey to Yogi Berra to Elston Howard the Yankees have had a ton of offensive catchers in their history. Why not have another one? How cbad an Montero be? Let's compare Montero's minor league stats to Posada's. If Montero's stats are as good or better, maybe he could be a fringe-average big league catcher like Posada has been. Posada posted a .977 Fld% in the minors, a 6.9 range factor per game ratio, 83 passed balls, and a 29% CS% in 6 minor league seasons. Montero has posted a .994 Fld% in the minors with a range factor per game ratio of 7.75, 41 passed balls, and a 23 CS% in 4 minor league seasons. Posada has done much better in the majors, posting a .992 Fld%, a 6.80 range factor per game ratio, 142 passed balls, and a 28% CS% in 16 seasons. Could Montero make that type of jump? The Yankees believe that Montero will be a serviceable catcher. He better be.
Let's talk about offensive-minded catchers. Posada and Jason Varitek have played their whole careers under that category. Everyone wants that Johnny Bench or Joe Mauer who does it all- both win Gold Gloves and win those homer titles or batting titles. But, are we happy with those Carlton Fisk's and Mike Piazza's who maybe will win one Gold Glove if they're lucky (Fisk was certainly lucky his rookie year), but will be a feared hitter who keeps winning Silver Sluggers. What's interesting is that the best catchers do both. Neither Fisk and Piazza won a batting title or a homer title. Do you know the only offensive categories that Piazza ever led the league in? Well at first glance at Piazza's page on baseball-reference.com, just OPS+ in '95 and '97 and double playsg grouded into in '99. Sure, upon further review Piazza led the NL in offensive WAR in 1997 and AB per homer in '95, but wow. When we think of Mike Piazza, we think of one of the greatest catchers to play the game (if not the incident with Roger Clemens). How could he lead the league in so few offensive categories? Without even going into more complicated stats, Mauer has led the AL in batting 3 times, OBP once, OPS once, OPS+ once, and even sac flies once. And he has a lot of his career still ahead of him! The fans like offensive catchers. You get mad when they mess up defensively, but you love their homers and other big hits. But, you'd much rather have a two-way catcher. They play well defensively AND get those big hits. Montero is obviously an offensive catcher. Do the Yankees have a two-way catcher coming up? I want to say Austin Romine, but he apparently can't catch the ball. Gary Sanchez and J.R. Murphy might be good defensive catchers eventually, but they're quite a while away. The Yankees, at least for the next few seasons, will be stuck with an offensive catcher again.
But, the Yankees have had a history of offensive catchers. From Bill Dickey to Yogi Berra to Elston Howard the Yankees have had a ton of offensive catchers in their history. Why not have another one? How cbad an Montero be? Let's compare Montero's minor league stats to Posada's. If Montero's stats are as good or better, maybe he could be a fringe-average big league catcher like Posada has been. Posada posted a .977 Fld% in the minors, a 6.9 range factor per game ratio, 83 passed balls, and a 29% CS% in 6 minor league seasons. Montero has posted a .994 Fld% in the minors with a range factor per game ratio of 7.75, 41 passed balls, and a 23 CS% in 4 minor league seasons. Posada has done much better in the majors, posting a .992 Fld%, a 6.80 range factor per game ratio, 142 passed balls, and a 28% CS% in 16 seasons. Could Montero make that type of jump? The Yankees believe that Montero will be a serviceable catcher. He better be.
Thursday, November 11, 2010
DeJesus to the A's
The Oakland Athletics have acquired OF David DeJesus from the Kansas City Royals in exchange for RHP Vin Mazzaro and LHP Justin Marks.
DeJesus, who will turn 31 on December 20th, had a nice but injury shortened season for the Royals in 2010, hitting .318 with 23 doubles, 5 homers, 37 RBI, and a .384 OBP in 91 games. He injured his thumb during a 10-4 loss to the Yankees on June 22nd and had to undergo surgery. DeJesus had his best season in '08, when he hit .307 with 25 doubles, 12 homers, 73 RBI, 11 steals, and a .366 OBP in 135 games. He hit .281 with 28 doubles, 13 homers, 71 RBI, 9 triples, and a .347 OBP in 144 games. Defensively, DeJesus has not made an error since '08. His 15.3 Ultimate Zone Rating was second in the majors in '09 to Carl Crawford, but was negative 0.1 in '10. He is not a great player, but he can be a solid contributor on a good team.
Mazzaro has been very inconsistent both at the major league and minor league levels. Mazzaro, a 3rd round pick, went 9-9 at Low-A his first pro season in '06, but posted a 5.05 ERA. He then went 9-12 with a 5.33 ERA at High-A in '07. But then, Mazzaro had an incredible season in '08, 15-6 with a 2.74 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A. 2-2 with a 2.38 ERA in 9 starts and a relief appearance in '09 at Triple-A, Mazzaro was promoted to the majors where he went 4-9 with a 5.32 ERA in 17 starts. In '10, Mazzaro started out at Triple-A again, where he went 3-1 with a 3.13 ERA in 6 starts and a relief appearance, before being recalled to the majors. Mazzaro went 6-8 for the A's in '10, with a 4.27 ERA in 18 starts and 6 relief appearances. He was 6-3 with a 3.45 ERA on June 24th, but went just 0-6 with a 5.37 ERA the rest of the season. Keep in mind that Mazzaro isn't your average 24 year old fireballer. Mazzaro has posted just a 6.8 K/9 in the minors and a 5.8 K/9 in the majors. That wouldn't be that bad, but he doesn't have great control either. He has a 3.7 career BB/9, and his career K/BB ratio is just 1.55. If the Royals can somehow fix Mazzaro's control, he could be a good back of the rotation starter.
Marks is a lefty strikeout machine, but at least to this point in his career, he has not been effective. A 2009 3rd round pick, Marks had the worst pro debut I've ever seen that same season, pitching in 1 game at Rookie ball, a start, and giving up 6 runs in 0.0 IP for an infinity ERA. Yeah, infinity. Well, from there Marks could only be better. Not that he was that good in '10- he went 6-13 with a 4.87 ERA in 24 starts and a relief appearance between Low-A and High-A. The only reasons Marks has any value is because he struck out 136 batters in 129.1 IP in '10, good for a 9.5 K/9, and he posted a 2.78 K/BB ratio. If the Royals can somehow fix him, he could be a great pitcher. How many lefty starters strike out over a batter per inning?
The Royals are in a rebuilding mode, and had no need for DeJesus. They decided to trade him for 2 pitchers that need help, but certainly have potentially. The Royals are taking the gamble that Mazzaro and Marks will pan out. But, they wouldn't have done this trade if they didn't think they could fix them.
DeJesus, who will turn 31 on December 20th, had a nice but injury shortened season for the Royals in 2010, hitting .318 with 23 doubles, 5 homers, 37 RBI, and a .384 OBP in 91 games. He injured his thumb during a 10-4 loss to the Yankees on June 22nd and had to undergo surgery. DeJesus had his best season in '08, when he hit .307 with 25 doubles, 12 homers, 73 RBI, 11 steals, and a .366 OBP in 135 games. He hit .281 with 28 doubles, 13 homers, 71 RBI, 9 triples, and a .347 OBP in 144 games. Defensively, DeJesus has not made an error since '08. His 15.3 Ultimate Zone Rating was second in the majors in '09 to Carl Crawford, but was negative 0.1 in '10. He is not a great player, but he can be a solid contributor on a good team.
Mazzaro has been very inconsistent both at the major league and minor league levels. Mazzaro, a 3rd round pick, went 9-9 at Low-A his first pro season in '06, but posted a 5.05 ERA. He then went 9-12 with a 5.33 ERA at High-A in '07. But then, Mazzaro had an incredible season in '08, 15-6 with a 2.74 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A. 2-2 with a 2.38 ERA in 9 starts and a relief appearance in '09 at Triple-A, Mazzaro was promoted to the majors where he went 4-9 with a 5.32 ERA in 17 starts. In '10, Mazzaro started out at Triple-A again, where he went 3-1 with a 3.13 ERA in 6 starts and a relief appearance, before being recalled to the majors. Mazzaro went 6-8 for the A's in '10, with a 4.27 ERA in 18 starts and 6 relief appearances. He was 6-3 with a 3.45 ERA on June 24th, but went just 0-6 with a 5.37 ERA the rest of the season. Keep in mind that Mazzaro isn't your average 24 year old fireballer. Mazzaro has posted just a 6.8 K/9 in the minors and a 5.8 K/9 in the majors. That wouldn't be that bad, but he doesn't have great control either. He has a 3.7 career BB/9, and his career K/BB ratio is just 1.55. If the Royals can somehow fix Mazzaro's control, he could be a good back of the rotation starter.
Marks is a lefty strikeout machine, but at least to this point in his career, he has not been effective. A 2009 3rd round pick, Marks had the worst pro debut I've ever seen that same season, pitching in 1 game at Rookie ball, a start, and giving up 6 runs in 0.0 IP for an infinity ERA. Yeah, infinity. Well, from there Marks could only be better. Not that he was that good in '10- he went 6-13 with a 4.87 ERA in 24 starts and a relief appearance between Low-A and High-A. The only reasons Marks has any value is because he struck out 136 batters in 129.1 IP in '10, good for a 9.5 K/9, and he posted a 2.78 K/BB ratio. If the Royals can somehow fix him, he could be a great pitcher. How many lefty starters strike out over a batter per inning?
The Royals are in a rebuilding mode, and had no need for DeJesus. They decided to trade him for 2 pitchers that need help, but certainly have potentially. The Royals are taking the gamble that Mazzaro and Marks will pan out. But, they wouldn't have done this trade if they didn't think they could fix them.
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
Will Jeter rebound in 2011?
Everyone knows that Jeter had a off-year in 2010. He hit just .270, his worst BA since 1995 (.250 in 15 games). Will he ever be a .300 hitter again?
First off, let me just clarify that Jeter's 2010 season wasn't THAT bad. His 111 runs were his most since 118 in 2006. His 30 doubles were his most since '07. But, that being said, his .340 OBP was also his worst since '95, his 515 outs made were the most of his career, his 107 K's were his most since '05, he posted his lowest slugging percentage of his career (.370), and he grounded into the 2nd-most double plays of any season of his career, 22 (only behind 24 in '08). In addition, Jeter went his most at-bats per homer, 66.3, since '95 (he had no homers in '95), and his most at-bats per RBI, 9.9, in any season of his career. So, now that we have a perspective of Jeter's 2010 season compared to the rest of his career, we can ask this question: did Jeter have a bad season because of bad luck or because he's beginning to decline?
Did Jeter have bad luck in 2010? Well, his .307 BAbip (BA on balls in play) was the lowest of any season in his career. And, not by a small margin. His previous career low was .324 in '95, and keep in mind that his BAbip's the last 4 years were .368 in '09, .333 in '08, .367 in '07, and a ridiculous .391 BAbip in '06. Those four BAbip's correlate perfectly to Jeter's BA in those years. He hit .343 in '06 because of the ridiculous .391 BAbip, .322 in '07 because of the great .367 BAbip, just .300 in '08 because his BAbip went down .34 to .333, and then .334 in '09 because his BAbip went back up to .368. Keep in mind that BAbip is almost all luck. As they say, "you can only hit the ball, you can't aim it." So, by that reasoning, Jeter was very unlucky in '10.
But, an important factor in BAbip is line drive percentage- although some line drives are caught, most line drives are base hits. Jeter's LD% in 2010 was just 16%, the lowest of his career. That's very low compared to his 22% LD% for his career. Although LD% isn't as clearly connected to BA as BAbip, going back to our '06 to '09 example for Jeter's career, Jeter's LD% was 21% in '06 when he hit .343, 22% in '07 when he hit .322, just 19% when he hit just .300, and 21% when he hit .334 in '09. Jeter just isn't hitting line drives as often anymore. His 5.8% of hits for extra bases in '10 was tied for the lowest percentage of his career, with '08. According to that, Jeter appears to definitely be in decline. He just can't hit as many line drives anymore.
Is Jeter in decline? Well, from June until September of 2010, Jeter hit .242. But, he rebounded to hit .287 in September (and the regular season games in October). Will Jeter ever hit .300 again? Maybe not. But, maybe that .287 BA in September could be what Jeter has left in the tank. Jeter certainly had bad luck in '10, most notably from June until September when he had just a .275 BAbip. But, even when his BAbip shot up to .351 in September, he still hit just .287. Jeter's decline is just beginning, but still he's in a decline. I don't think he'll ever hit .300 again, but I think that his luck will turn around in 2011 and he'll hit around .290.
First off, let me just clarify that Jeter's 2010 season wasn't THAT bad. His 111 runs were his most since 118 in 2006. His 30 doubles were his most since '07. But, that being said, his .340 OBP was also his worst since '95, his 515 outs made were the most of his career, his 107 K's were his most since '05, he posted his lowest slugging percentage of his career (.370), and he grounded into the 2nd-most double plays of any season of his career, 22 (only behind 24 in '08). In addition, Jeter went his most at-bats per homer, 66.3, since '95 (he had no homers in '95), and his most at-bats per RBI, 9.9, in any season of his career. So, now that we have a perspective of Jeter's 2010 season compared to the rest of his career, we can ask this question: did Jeter have a bad season because of bad luck or because he's beginning to decline?
Did Jeter have bad luck in 2010? Well, his .307 BAbip (BA on balls in play) was the lowest of any season in his career. And, not by a small margin. His previous career low was .324 in '95, and keep in mind that his BAbip's the last 4 years were .368 in '09, .333 in '08, .367 in '07, and a ridiculous .391 BAbip in '06. Those four BAbip's correlate perfectly to Jeter's BA in those years. He hit .343 in '06 because of the ridiculous .391 BAbip, .322 in '07 because of the great .367 BAbip, just .300 in '08 because his BAbip went down .34 to .333, and then .334 in '09 because his BAbip went back up to .368. Keep in mind that BAbip is almost all luck. As they say, "you can only hit the ball, you can't aim it." So, by that reasoning, Jeter was very unlucky in '10.
But, an important factor in BAbip is line drive percentage- although some line drives are caught, most line drives are base hits. Jeter's LD% in 2010 was just 16%, the lowest of his career. That's very low compared to his 22% LD% for his career. Although LD% isn't as clearly connected to BA as BAbip, going back to our '06 to '09 example for Jeter's career, Jeter's LD% was 21% in '06 when he hit .343, 22% in '07 when he hit .322, just 19% when he hit just .300, and 21% when he hit .334 in '09. Jeter just isn't hitting line drives as often anymore. His 5.8% of hits for extra bases in '10 was tied for the lowest percentage of his career, with '08. According to that, Jeter appears to definitely be in decline. He just can't hit as many line drives anymore.
Is Jeter in decline? Well, from June until September of 2010, Jeter hit .242. But, he rebounded to hit .287 in September (and the regular season games in October). Will Jeter ever hit .300 again? Maybe not. But, maybe that .287 BA in September could be what Jeter has left in the tank. Jeter certainly had bad luck in '10, most notably from June until September when he had just a .275 BAbip. But, even when his BAbip shot up to .351 in September, he still hit just .287. Jeter's decline is just beginning, but still he's in a decline. I don't think he'll ever hit .300 again, but I think that his luck will turn around in 2011 and he'll hit around .290.
Monday, November 8, 2010
Iwakuma to the A's
The Oakland Athletics have won the bidding for Japanese RHP Hisashi Iwakuma. Iwakuma isn't your average Japanese star pitcher coming from Japan. He went 13-6 with a 3.25 ERA, but just 121 K's in 24 starts and 169 IP. He gave up 169 hits, more than a hit per inning, although he did walk just 43. Contrast him to other big name Japanese starters Daisuke Matsuzaka, who struck out 200 in 186.1 IP his last year in Japan, and Hideo Nomo, who struck out 126 in 114 IP his last year in Japan and 276 in 243.1 IP in his last full year in Japan. Iwakuma's strikeout rate in his last year in Japan is not even comparable to Kei Igawa's stats in his last year in Japan. Igawa struck out 194 in 209 IP, an 8.4 K/9, compared to Iwakuma's 6.4 K/9. To go through a few other active Japanese pitchers, Hideki Okajima had a 10.5 K/9, Kenshin Kawakami had an 8.6 K/9, Takashi Saito had a 7.9 K/9, Hisanori Takahashi also had a 7.9 K/9, while Koji Uehara had a 7.3 K/9, and Hiroki Kuroda, 6.2 K/9. Let's look at those last 4 guys. Kawakami has been up and down as a starter in the big leagues, while Saito, Takahashi, and Uehara have enjoyed success in the big leagues as relievers, and Kuroda has been a successful starter. Among that group, the A's obviously hope that Iwakuma will be most like Kuroda.
The comparison between Iwakuma and Kuroda goes further. Iwakuma posted a 2.3 BB/9 in Japan in '10, similar to Hiroki Kuroda's 2.1 BB/9 in his last year in Japan. Kuroda's career BB/9 in the majors is also 2.1. Could Iwakuma also maintain his 2.3 BB/9? Interestingly, Kuroda's strikeout rate has gone up from 6.2 per 9 to 6.6 per 9 in America. Could the same thing also happen to Iwakuma?
In comparing Iwakuma to Kuroda, I'm realizing this: Iwakuma isn't going to be a big league superstar unless he really becomes a much better pitcher against big league hitters. He will be a nice 3rd starter, posting an ERA in the low to mid 3.00's (Kuroda's ERA in the big leagues has ranged from 3.39 to 3.76). He won't blow away hitters, but he'll get outs. Iwakuma's hype isn't anywhere near what Dice-K's hype was when he came to the US. But, considering Matsuzaka's struggles, Iwakuma certainly has as good of a chance as he does to be "the next great Japanese pitcher".
The comparison between Iwakuma and Kuroda goes further. Iwakuma posted a 2.3 BB/9 in Japan in '10, similar to Hiroki Kuroda's 2.1 BB/9 in his last year in Japan. Kuroda's career BB/9 in the majors is also 2.1. Could Iwakuma also maintain his 2.3 BB/9? Interestingly, Kuroda's strikeout rate has gone up from 6.2 per 9 to 6.6 per 9 in America. Could the same thing also happen to Iwakuma?
In comparing Iwakuma to Kuroda, I'm realizing this: Iwakuma isn't going to be a big league superstar unless he really becomes a much better pitcher against big league hitters. He will be a nice 3rd starter, posting an ERA in the low to mid 3.00's (Kuroda's ERA in the big leagues has ranged from 3.39 to 3.76). He won't blow away hitters, but he'll get outs. Iwakuma's hype isn't anywhere near what Dice-K's hype was when he came to the US. But, considering Matsuzaka's struggles, Iwakuma certainly has as good of a chance as he does to be "the next great Japanese pitcher".
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