Once you get there, you will do anything to get back.
As a Yankee fan, I remember Jay Gibbons as one of the outfielders on the Orioles team that kept finishing in 4th place in the AL East, only in front of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. He was a good player, hitting .247 with 28 homers and 68 RBI in his 2nd year in '02, and hitting .277 with 23 homers and 100 RBI in '03. After hitting just .246 with 10 homers and 47 RBI because of injuries in '04, Gibbons rebounded to hit .277 with 26 homers and 79 RBI in '05. Gibbons played in just 90 games in '06 because of injuries, hitting .277 with 13 homers and 46 RBI. But, in September, his life changed. Former relief pitcher Jason Grimsley told federal agents that Gibbons, among others, used steroids. Gibbons denied the reports.
After hitting .230 with 6 homers and 6 homers and 28 RBI in 84 games, Gibbons was named in the Mitchell Report. Sports Illustrated reported that Gibbons used HGH and steroids from '03 to '05, with '03 and '05 being 2 of his best 3 seasons. He was released by Orioles in Spring Training of '08.
He was so desperate that he wrote this letter to all 30 MLB teams:
Writing this letter is both painful and humiliating. It has been almost six weeks since my release from the Orioles and I am still unable to land any opportunity at a second chance to play the game that I love.
I am young, healthy and determined. I have acknowledged and apologized for the mistake that I made and writing this letter should be proof enough that I have indeed suffered for my mistake.
I have faith and hope that some team will give me the chance to prove that I can not only be a productive player but also be a stellar member of their organization. My faith in a second chance has inspired me to work harder than I have at any time in my life. My faith has gotten me through this most difficult period in my life.
All I need is a chance -- any chance -- anywhere. I am more than willing to begin the process of proving that I can and will be a productive major league player by playing in the minor leagues.
As you know, I have played seven seasons in the big leagues and have hit 20-plus homeruns in three seasons and have hit .277 in three seasons (2003, 2005 and 2006). At 31 years old, I have NO DOUBT that my best baseball is ahead of me.
I know that my agents at ACES have tried to land me an opportunity in the minor leagues but have been met with negative responses by each and every Organization. I am not blind to the fact that I have made a mistake and that mistake has raised doubt about my character and ability. It is important that you know that my indiscretions, while regretful, were made in an effort to heal a nagging wrist injury. I would encourage you to speak with anyone in this game, including players, coaches, front office etc. who know me. I am confident that everyone you speak with will vouch for my character.
I respectfully and humbly request that you grant me the chance to play for your organization. I am so willing to prove myself as a player, and a person, that I will donate ALL of my minor league earnings to your Club's charity. In the event that I earn the right to play at the major league level, I will gladly donate a significant sum to that same charity.
Once again, all I need is a chance and I will prove that I can be an extremely productive player and a great addition to your organization.
Please feel free to contact me directly [phone number omitted]. Thank you for your time and consideration.
Sincerely,
Jay Gibbons
Even though he used steroids, reading that letter almost made me cry. No team signed Gibbons to even to a minor league deal and he instead played with the independent Long Island Ducks. He hit .280 with 5 homers and 19 RBI in 27 games for the Ducks before finally being signed to a minor league deal by the Brewers. He hit very well for Triple-A Nashville in the Brewers organization hitting .312 with 5 homers and 15 RBI in 29 games. He was a free agent after the year, and signed to a minor league contract by the Marlins in January of '09. But, the Marlins released him in mid-March, and he was signed by the independent Newark Bears. He couldn't even hit well for the Bears, hitting just .233 with 4 homers and 19 RBI in 40 games. At 32, he appeared to be washed up.
Still, for some reason he was signed to a minor league contract by the Dodgers in January '10. The move certainly paid off. Gibbons hit a ridiculous .347 for Triple-A Albuquerque, with 19 homers and 83 RBI. He was promoted to the majors on August 8th, he hit .280 with 5 homers and 17 RBI. The Dodgers re-signed him to a 1-year contract worth $650,000 with incentives.
Even in a country of second chances, no one, maybe not even Gibbons himself, thought he would get back. He has become an inspiration. An inspiration to everyone who has made a mistake- all of us. No one is perfect. When you make a mistake, you have to persevere through it and get back to who you were before. You can fall all the way down, but if you're a good person and you're sincere, like Gibbons, you can realistically get all back up.
Monday, November 8, 2010
Friday, November 5, 2010
Bizarre Blue Jays-Rockies trade
The Rockies traded catcher Miguel Olivo to the Blue Jays for a player to be named. It doesn't sound like anything special, right? Well, it certainly was.
The Blue Jays declined Olivo's 2011 option, making him a free agent. (What? They just traded a player to be named for nothing!) Why did they do that? Well, Miguel Olivo is a Type-B free agent, so the Blue Jays traded a player to be named to potentially get a supplemental draft pick in June. Before that happens, they have to offer Olivo salary arbitration, and he has to decline it and sign with another team. But, what if he accepts the arbitration? Well, then Olivo would be an expensive backup to rookie catcher J.P. Arencibia, and the Blue Jays would probably try to trade him again. This trade is a calculated gamble by the Jays. If Olivo declines arbitration, Toronto will get an a supplemental draft pick in exchange for some random prospect. That's potentially a great trade. But, if Olivo accepts arbitration, that's potentially a disaster for them. The one thing in Toronto's favor is that Olivo will probably want to be a starter somewhere rather than be a backup in Toronto. I think it was a good gamble by the Jays. In all likelihood, the Jays will get a supplemental pick in exchange for a low-rated prospect.
The Blue Jays declined Olivo's 2011 option, making him a free agent. (What? They just traded a player to be named for nothing!) Why did they do that? Well, Miguel Olivo is a Type-B free agent, so the Blue Jays traded a player to be named to potentially get a supplemental draft pick in June. Before that happens, they have to offer Olivo salary arbitration, and he has to decline it and sign with another team. But, what if he accepts the arbitration? Well, then Olivo would be an expensive backup to rookie catcher J.P. Arencibia, and the Blue Jays would probably try to trade him again. This trade is a calculated gamble by the Jays. If Olivo declines arbitration, Toronto will get an a supplemental draft pick in exchange for some random prospect. That's potentially a great trade. But, if Olivo accepts arbitration, that's potentially a disaster for them. The one thing in Toronto's favor is that Olivo will probably want to be a starter somewhere rather than be a backup in Toronto. I think it was a good gamble by the Jays. In all likelihood, the Jays will get a supplemental pick in exchange for a low-rated prospect.
Thursday, November 4, 2010
Dustin Ackley dominates the AFL
2009 number 2 overall pick 2nd baseman Dustin Ackley has finally lived up to his potential. In his first minor league season, the Mariners prospect was hitting just .203 on May 27th at Double-A. It was such a big deal that I did a post on it! (http://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/655065-whats-going-on-with-mariners-top-prospect-dustin-ackley). But, Ackley rebounded to do OK at Double-A, hitting .263 with 21 doubles, 2 homers, 28 RBI, 8 SB, and a .389 OBP in 82 games. He was then promoted to Triple-A, and did better, hitting .274 with 12 doubles, 5 homers, 23 RBI, 2 SB, and a .338 OBP in 52 games. After starting off badly at Double-A, he rebounded and did even better at Triple-A. Still, he didn't play like a #2 overall pick should. Well, Ackley has finally started playing like a #2 overall pick in the Arizona Fall League. He has hit .400 with 4 doubles, 3 homers, 11 RBI, and a .554 OBP in 12 games. That's ridiculous. He's tied for 4th in the AFL in BA, tied for 2nd in homers, tied for 10th in RBI (with among others Yankee prospect Brandon Laird), and leads the AFL in OBP. This is the Ackley everyone expected.
So, why did he struggle during the minor league season? Because he was a 1st baseman and outfielder in college. He had to adjust to 2nd base defensively and because of that adjustment, he struggled at the plate for a while. Once he made the adjustment, he got back to being the great hitter he was in college.
So, why did he struggle during the minor league season? Because he was a 1st baseman and outfielder in college. He had to adjust to 2nd base defensively and because of that adjustment, he struggled at the plate for a while. Once he made the adjustment, he got back to being the great hitter he was in college.
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
Matt Kemp to the Yankees?
The rumor is that the Dodgers will trade CF Matt Kemp over the offseason. Could the Yankees make a run at him?
Every rumor has to start with the Yankees. Kemp doesn't appear to be a fit, but the Yankees could consider trading Nick Swisher. Swisher has been a great personality in the clubhouse, and he does have power, but there's no way the Yankees wouldn't at least consider including him in a trade for a talent like Kemp. Kemp only had 3 less homers than Swisher's 29 in '10, and the same amount of RBI (89). Plus, Kemp has logged 168 games in RF, posting a .973 Fld%, but a league-average .982 Fld% in 70 combined games in '08 and '09. He could be OK in right defensively. The Yankees would then have a very fast outfield of Gardner, Granderson, and Kemp. (Before anyone asks, a Gardner-Granderson-Crawford outfield would not work because they have a combined 0 games in RF. But, if Swisher is traded, Jayson Werth could definitely play RF, since it's been his primary position since '07.) So, what could the Dodgers get in return for Kemp. Well, pretty much anything they wanted besides Jesus Montero. My guess would be a package of something like Swisher, C Austin Romine, and OF Melky Mesa (a player who could eventually be a Kemp-like player if he pans out) for Kemp and OF Jamie Hoffmann (back to the Yankees after being returned after the Rule 5 draft). Let's analyze this theoretical trade.
Swisher had an all-star season in '10, hitting .288 with 33 doubles, 29 homers, 89 RBI, 91 runs, and a .359 OBP in 150 games. He posted a slightly-above average .986 Fld% in RF. He's certainly a good player. Do the Yankees want to trade him, even for Kemp?
Romine, the Yankees' 2nd best catching prospect besides Montero, had a decent season in '10, hittting .268 with 31 doubles, 10 homers, 69 RBI, 61 runs, and a .324 OBP in 115 games. He posted a .994 Fld% at catcher, and a 23% CS%. He allowed 6 passed balls. Although those sould like good defensive stats, I've heard that he has had trouble handling good fastballs. That is definitely a problem. If you're worried that Montero may never be a full-time catcher, Gary Sanchez and J.R. Murphy are coming. The Yankees really don't need Romine.
Mesa, the other Melky, has been an interesting prospect. After hitting a .221 in his first 3 minor league seasons at Rookie ball and SS-A ball, He burst on to the scene at age 22 at Low-A in '09, hitting just .225, but with 24 doubles, 20 homers, 74 RBI, 7 triples, 76 runs, 18 SB, and a .308 OBP in 133 games. In '10, he did even better, hitting .260 with 21 doubles, 19 homers, 74 RBI, 9 triples, 81 runs, 31 SB, and a reasonable .338 OBP in 121 games. He owns just a .975 career Fld% in CF, but he posted a .985 Fld% there in '10. He would have been a good prospect if it weren't for those 3 lost seasons. Still, at 23 (he will turn 24 in January), he has a little time to develop. If he could put up his '09 and '10 numbers in the majors in let's say 2013, he could be a Matt Kemp-like player. It seems like a pretty good deal for the Dodgers if they get a former All-Star in Swisher, and a likely All-Star in Romine in addition to a possible Matt Kemp-esque player who if he does get to that level will be an All-Star.
Hoffmann had a nice season at Triple-A hitting .310 with 36 doubles, 8 homers, 74 RBI, 91 runs, 17 SB, and a .369 OBP in 139 games. He is a tremendous defensive outfielder, as he posted a great .996 Fld% in CF with 5 outfield assists. You would think that the Dodgers would want to keep him, but he's 26, and didn't even earn a September call-up in '10. Seems like trade bait to me.
Kemp, a 26 year old righty hitter, appeared in all 162 games for the Dodgers, hitting .249 with 25 doubles, 28 homers, 89 RBI, 6 triples, 150 hits, 82 runs, 19 SB (15 CS), a .310 OBP, a below-average .985 Fld% in CF, and just 3 outfield assists. Kemp is what he is. He has power and speed, but not a tremendous amount of either. Still, any player who could potentially put up a 30-30 season is a good player. Kevin Long could maybe fix his swing, and the Yankees could have far and away the best outfield in the majors, possibly an outfield that could all 3 be All-Stars in the same season. Picture that. As a Yankee fan, do you want the Yankees to trade for Kemp now? Is it a longshot? Maybe, but there's a chance. A chance of the trade happening and a chance that something special will happen in the Yankee outfield.
Every rumor has to start with the Yankees. Kemp doesn't appear to be a fit, but the Yankees could consider trading Nick Swisher. Swisher has been a great personality in the clubhouse, and he does have power, but there's no way the Yankees wouldn't at least consider including him in a trade for a talent like Kemp. Kemp only had 3 less homers than Swisher's 29 in '10, and the same amount of RBI (89). Plus, Kemp has logged 168 games in RF, posting a .973 Fld%, but a league-average .982 Fld% in 70 combined games in '08 and '09. He could be OK in right defensively. The Yankees would then have a very fast outfield of Gardner, Granderson, and Kemp. (Before anyone asks, a Gardner-Granderson-Crawford outfield would not work because they have a combined 0 games in RF. But, if Swisher is traded, Jayson Werth could definitely play RF, since it's been his primary position since '07.) So, what could the Dodgers get in return for Kemp. Well, pretty much anything they wanted besides Jesus Montero. My guess would be a package of something like Swisher, C Austin Romine, and OF Melky Mesa (a player who could eventually be a Kemp-like player if he pans out) for Kemp and OF Jamie Hoffmann (back to the Yankees after being returned after the Rule 5 draft). Let's analyze this theoretical trade.
Swisher had an all-star season in '10, hitting .288 with 33 doubles, 29 homers, 89 RBI, 91 runs, and a .359 OBP in 150 games. He posted a slightly-above average .986 Fld% in RF. He's certainly a good player. Do the Yankees want to trade him, even for Kemp?
Romine, the Yankees' 2nd best catching prospect besides Montero, had a decent season in '10, hittting .268 with 31 doubles, 10 homers, 69 RBI, 61 runs, and a .324 OBP in 115 games. He posted a .994 Fld% at catcher, and a 23% CS%. He allowed 6 passed balls. Although those sould like good defensive stats, I've heard that he has had trouble handling good fastballs. That is definitely a problem. If you're worried that Montero may never be a full-time catcher, Gary Sanchez and J.R. Murphy are coming. The Yankees really don't need Romine.
Mesa, the other Melky, has been an interesting prospect. After hitting a .221 in his first 3 minor league seasons at Rookie ball and SS-A ball, He burst on to the scene at age 22 at Low-A in '09, hitting just .225, but with 24 doubles, 20 homers, 74 RBI, 7 triples, 76 runs, 18 SB, and a .308 OBP in 133 games. In '10, he did even better, hitting .260 with 21 doubles, 19 homers, 74 RBI, 9 triples, 81 runs, 31 SB, and a reasonable .338 OBP in 121 games. He owns just a .975 career Fld% in CF, but he posted a .985 Fld% there in '10. He would have been a good prospect if it weren't for those 3 lost seasons. Still, at 23 (he will turn 24 in January), he has a little time to develop. If he could put up his '09 and '10 numbers in the majors in let's say 2013, he could be a Matt Kemp-like player. It seems like a pretty good deal for the Dodgers if they get a former All-Star in Swisher, and a likely All-Star in Romine in addition to a possible Matt Kemp-esque player who if he does get to that level will be an All-Star.
Hoffmann had a nice season at Triple-A hitting .310 with 36 doubles, 8 homers, 74 RBI, 91 runs, 17 SB, and a .369 OBP in 139 games. He is a tremendous defensive outfielder, as he posted a great .996 Fld% in CF with 5 outfield assists. You would think that the Dodgers would want to keep him, but he's 26, and didn't even earn a September call-up in '10. Seems like trade bait to me.
Kemp, a 26 year old righty hitter, appeared in all 162 games for the Dodgers, hitting .249 with 25 doubles, 28 homers, 89 RBI, 6 triples, 150 hits, 82 runs, 19 SB (15 CS), a .310 OBP, a below-average .985 Fld% in CF, and just 3 outfield assists. Kemp is what he is. He has power and speed, but not a tremendous amount of either. Still, any player who could potentially put up a 30-30 season is a good player. Kevin Long could maybe fix his swing, and the Yankees could have far and away the best outfield in the majors, possibly an outfield that could all 3 be All-Stars in the same season. Picture that. As a Yankee fan, do you want the Yankees to trade for Kemp now? Is it a longshot? Maybe, but there's a chance. A chance of the trade happening and a chance that something special will happen in the Yankee outfield.
Friday, October 29, 2010
Another review of the Granderson-Austin Jackson trade
Before the 2009 season, the Yankees traded top prospect CF Austin Jackson and LH reliever Phil Coke to Detroit and RHP Ian Kennedy to Arizona in exchange for Curtis Granderson. The Tigers also traded RHP Edwin Jackson for RHP Max Scherzer and LH reliever Daniel Schlereth.
Why did the Yankees do the trade? They already had a top-flight centerfielder in Jackson who was ready for the majors!
Yesterday I was thinking and it finally came to me- Brett Gardner was the key to the trade for the Yankees. (Wait, what?) Yes, Brett Gardner, who wasn't even part of the trade, was the key to the trade for them. We'll get back to this point in a moment. First, let's analyze the trade for all the teams involved.
Jackson had a great rookie year, .293 with 34 doubles, 4 homers, 41 RBI, 10 triples, 181 hits, 103 runs, 27 SB, and a .345 OBP in 151 games. But, he led the AL with 170 strikeouts. How can a player with just 4 homers lead the AL in strikeouts? But, you could argue, he still hit .293. Well, let's compare Jackson to Curtis Granderson. Granderson led the AL in strikeouts in '06, his first full season, hitting .260. But, the next season in '07, he finished 7th in the league in strikeouts and hit .302. But, in '08 he hit .280, and in '09 and '10, he has hit under .250. Will the same thing happen to Jackson? For the time being at least, he's a good player.
Granderson missed time with a groin injury in '10, but Kevin Long fixed his swing and he had a nice year. He hit .247 with 17 doubles, 24 homers, 67 RBI, 7 triples, 76 runs, 12 SB, and a .324 OBP in 136 games. He struck out 116 times. He hit .249 with 30 homers and 71 RBI in 160 games in '09, striking out 141 times. He is what he is. He's a good defensive CF with a lot of power and some speed. He of course strikes out a lot, but he's a good player.
Coke had a pretty good year as a workhorse lefty reliever, going 7-5 with a 3.76 ERA, 53 'K's, and 2 saves in 73 relief appearances, 1 start, and 64.2 IP. He walked only 26 for a 2-1 K/BB ratio, and allowed just 2 homers, but he allowed 67 hits, more than a hit per inning. It was better than his '09 season when he went 4-3 with a 4.50 ERA in 72 relief appearances for the Yankees, giving up 10 home runs. Strangely, he allowed just 44 hits in 60 IP. The Yankees clearly traded Coke because he's just not good. They were able to acquire Boone Logan, so they don't even miss him.
Kennedy had a good rookie season for the Diamondbacks, going 9-10 with a 3.80 ERA and 168 K's in 32 starts and 194 IP. He also allowed just 163 hits, way less than a hit per inning, and 70 walks, good for a better than 2-1 K/BB ratio. But, he gave up 26 home runs and led the NL with 16 wild pitches. He's an OK pitcher. The Yankees didn't think he was of any use to them, so they traded him. They knew they had guys like Ivan Nova and Andrew Brackman coming up from the minors. It did turn out that they could have used him after Vazquez was a disaster.
Edwin Jackson had a very interesting season. He went 6-10 with a 5.16 ERA for Arizona and 4-2 with a 3.24 ERA after being traded to the Chicago White Sox. He threw a no-hitter, but he allowed 8 walks and threw 149 pitches. He struck out 181, but he walked 70, allowed more than a hit per inning, and he allowed 21 home runs. The trade was a disaster for Arizona.
Scherzer had a good season for Detroit, going 12-11 with a 3.50 ERA and 184 K's in 31 starts and 195.2 IP. He allowed just 174 hits, way less than a hit per inning. Scherzer did walk 70, but he still had a K/BB ratio better than 2.5. Detroit made a great deal in getting this guy.
Schlereth had a good season at Triple-A Toledo, going 1-3 with a 2.37 ERA and 60 K's in 39 relief appearances and 49.1 IP. But, he walked 34, a high average of 6.2 per 9. He did well in a big league tryout for Detroit, going 2-0 with a 2.89 ERA in 18 relief appearances. He's a pretty good prospect, but he definitely has to work on his control.
It's clear who the winner is in this trade. The Tigers traded away 2 veterans in Granderson and Edwin Jackson for a starting CF in Austin Jackson that's a very different player than Granderson, but just as good, a starter pitcher in Scherzer that's probably better than Edwin Jackson, a lefty to be in the bullpen now in Coke, and a lefty that will be in the bullpen soon, in Schlereth. They are the clear winners in this trade. The Yankees got their guy in Granderson, and he did well, so it apparently wasn't a terrible trade for them. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks had just a terrible trade, as Edwin Jackson under-performed for them. Although Kennedy did well, they gave up a good big league pitcher in Scherzer and a lefty reliever who could eventually be a setup man, and maybe even a closer.
So, now to Brett Gardner, the key to the trade for the Yankees. Austin Jackson is a good player, but he has so little power. So does Gardner. Did the Yankees need both Jackson and Gardner? No. They would have had a very speedy outfield, but they would've had 2 starting players with 5 or less homers. When was the last time the Yankees had 2 guys like that? 1997, when Joe Girardi, Luis Sojo, and Tim Raines had 1, 2, and 4 homers respectively. Even then, Sojo and Raines both played under 80 games. In 1996, the Yankees had Girardi and Mariano Duncan who both hit 2 homers in addition to Gerald Williams who hit 5 homers in 99 games. Clearly, the Yankees can win with 2 players like that, but they probably preferred not to. Jackson was a more tradable player so they traded him instead of Gardner. In Granderson, the Yankees acquired a player with power who was a great hitter for Yankee stadium. The Yankees don't play small ball- they play "power ball". The Yankees probably would've liked to keep Coke, but they were willing to trade him (and Kennedy, who they had no use for) to do the Austin Jackson- Granderson swap. Jackson is a triples hitter, so he's great for Comerica, while Granderson has enough power to hit 35 homers in Yankee Stadium. Although there's no way to say that the Tigers weren't the winners in this trade, the Yankees accomplished exactly what they wanted so it was a good trade for them as well.
Why did the Yankees do the trade? They already had a top-flight centerfielder in Jackson who was ready for the majors!
Yesterday I was thinking and it finally came to me- Brett Gardner was the key to the trade for the Yankees. (Wait, what?) Yes, Brett Gardner, who wasn't even part of the trade, was the key to the trade for them. We'll get back to this point in a moment. First, let's analyze the trade for all the teams involved.
Jackson had a great rookie year, .293 with 34 doubles, 4 homers, 41 RBI, 10 triples, 181 hits, 103 runs, 27 SB, and a .345 OBP in 151 games. But, he led the AL with 170 strikeouts. How can a player with just 4 homers lead the AL in strikeouts? But, you could argue, he still hit .293. Well, let's compare Jackson to Curtis Granderson. Granderson led the AL in strikeouts in '06, his first full season, hitting .260. But, the next season in '07, he finished 7th in the league in strikeouts and hit .302. But, in '08 he hit .280, and in '09 and '10, he has hit under .250. Will the same thing happen to Jackson? For the time being at least, he's a good player.
Granderson missed time with a groin injury in '10, but Kevin Long fixed his swing and he had a nice year. He hit .247 with 17 doubles, 24 homers, 67 RBI, 7 triples, 76 runs, 12 SB, and a .324 OBP in 136 games. He struck out 116 times. He hit .249 with 30 homers and 71 RBI in 160 games in '09, striking out 141 times. He is what he is. He's a good defensive CF with a lot of power and some speed. He of course strikes out a lot, but he's a good player.
Coke had a pretty good year as a workhorse lefty reliever, going 7-5 with a 3.76 ERA, 53 'K's, and 2 saves in 73 relief appearances, 1 start, and 64.2 IP. He walked only 26 for a 2-1 K/BB ratio, and allowed just 2 homers, but he allowed 67 hits, more than a hit per inning. It was better than his '09 season when he went 4-3 with a 4.50 ERA in 72 relief appearances for the Yankees, giving up 10 home runs. Strangely, he allowed just 44 hits in 60 IP. The Yankees clearly traded Coke because he's just not good. They were able to acquire Boone Logan, so they don't even miss him.
Kennedy had a good rookie season for the Diamondbacks, going 9-10 with a 3.80 ERA and 168 K's in 32 starts and 194 IP. He also allowed just 163 hits, way less than a hit per inning, and 70 walks, good for a better than 2-1 K/BB ratio. But, he gave up 26 home runs and led the NL with 16 wild pitches. He's an OK pitcher. The Yankees didn't think he was of any use to them, so they traded him. They knew they had guys like Ivan Nova and Andrew Brackman coming up from the minors. It did turn out that they could have used him after Vazquez was a disaster.
Edwin Jackson had a very interesting season. He went 6-10 with a 5.16 ERA for Arizona and 4-2 with a 3.24 ERA after being traded to the Chicago White Sox. He threw a no-hitter, but he allowed 8 walks and threw 149 pitches. He struck out 181, but he walked 70, allowed more than a hit per inning, and he allowed 21 home runs. The trade was a disaster for Arizona.
Scherzer had a good season for Detroit, going 12-11 with a 3.50 ERA and 184 K's in 31 starts and 195.2 IP. He allowed just 174 hits, way less than a hit per inning. Scherzer did walk 70, but he still had a K/BB ratio better than 2.5. Detroit made a great deal in getting this guy.
Schlereth had a good season at Triple-A Toledo, going 1-3 with a 2.37 ERA and 60 K's in 39 relief appearances and 49.1 IP. But, he walked 34, a high average of 6.2 per 9. He did well in a big league tryout for Detroit, going 2-0 with a 2.89 ERA in 18 relief appearances. He's a pretty good prospect, but he definitely has to work on his control.
It's clear who the winner is in this trade. The Tigers traded away 2 veterans in Granderson and Edwin Jackson for a starting CF in Austin Jackson that's a very different player than Granderson, but just as good, a starter pitcher in Scherzer that's probably better than Edwin Jackson, a lefty to be in the bullpen now in Coke, and a lefty that will be in the bullpen soon, in Schlereth. They are the clear winners in this trade. The Yankees got their guy in Granderson, and he did well, so it apparently wasn't a terrible trade for them. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks had just a terrible trade, as Edwin Jackson under-performed for them. Although Kennedy did well, they gave up a good big league pitcher in Scherzer and a lefty reliever who could eventually be a setup man, and maybe even a closer.
So, now to Brett Gardner, the key to the trade for the Yankees. Austin Jackson is a good player, but he has so little power. So does Gardner. Did the Yankees need both Jackson and Gardner? No. They would have had a very speedy outfield, but they would've had 2 starting players with 5 or less homers. When was the last time the Yankees had 2 guys like that? 1997, when Joe Girardi, Luis Sojo, and Tim Raines had 1, 2, and 4 homers respectively. Even then, Sojo and Raines both played under 80 games. In 1996, the Yankees had Girardi and Mariano Duncan who both hit 2 homers in addition to Gerald Williams who hit 5 homers in 99 games. Clearly, the Yankees can win with 2 players like that, but they probably preferred not to. Jackson was a more tradable player so they traded him instead of Gardner. In Granderson, the Yankees acquired a player with power who was a great hitter for Yankee stadium. The Yankees don't play small ball- they play "power ball". The Yankees probably would've liked to keep Coke, but they were willing to trade him (and Kennedy, who they had no use for) to do the Austin Jackson- Granderson swap. Jackson is a triples hitter, so he's great for Comerica, while Granderson has enough power to hit 35 homers in Yankee Stadium. Although there's no way to say that the Tigers weren't the winners in this trade, the Yankees accomplished exactly what they wanted so it was a good trade for them as well.
Thursday, October 28, 2010
Yankees decline options on Berkman, Johnson
The Yankees have declined their options on designated hitters Lance Berkman and Nick Johnson. What does that mean for 2011?
I think that there are 2 possibilites: either that the Yankees will use a combination of Jesus Montero and Jorge Posada at catcher and DH, or the Yankees are about to sign a big name free agent to be the DH. Let's go through both possibilities.
Jessus Montero is ready. As I said in my recent post "Introducing the 2011 AL Rookie of the Year: Jesus Montero", Montero is a just a great hitter and an improving defensive catcher. He overcame a terrible start at Triple-A to still put up his usual great year. Posada certainly isn't the player he once was, but he still hit 18 homers in '10. Maybe he could hit 25 or more homers if he catches much less. But, to advocate against it, he hit a homer every 25.5 at-bats as a DH versus every 20.77 at-bats as a catcher. But, since the Yankees have to have Posada on the roster (he's not just going to retire with another year on his contract, and he's untradable), they might as well DH him as often as possible so they don't have to deal with his terrible defense (.986 Fld%, 15% CS%). It will be a nice send-off for Posada, and a nice experience for Montero.
Or, the Yankees could look to the free agent market for an answer at DH. Montero will be in the big leagues in '10, so he will be the starter at catcher, with Posada backing him up and playing some DH, and the free agent playing mostly DH, with some games at his natural position. Let's look at some options for that potential free agent.
Adam Dunn: Dunn is a 40+ homer who plays terrible defense. He hit .260 with 38 homers and 103 RBI in '10 and a .267 with 38 and 105 RBI in '09. The previous 4 years before that, he hit exactly 40 homers every year. He's a very consistent hitter. Just how bad is he defensively? He did post a just a slightly below average Fld% (.990) at 1B in '10! Well, in '09, he posted a terrible .986 Fld% at 1B, a terrrible .953 Fld% in LF, and a disastrous .935 Fld% in RF. He can play the field if neccesary, but it's better to have him DH. Of course, he will command a big contract. Also, what will you do with Posada if Dunn is playing every day? I don't think Dunn is a good option.
Johnny Damon: Damon said that he would want to come back to the Yankees, and he may have a chance. After a bad year, the Yankees might be one of a few teams willing to give him even semi-regular playing time. Damon hit just .271 in '10, with 36 doubles, 8 homers, 51 RBI, 11 SB, 81 runs, and a .355 OBP in 145 games with the TIgers. The Yankees could use Damon as a backup outfielder and a part-time DH along with Posada. He did hit .417 as a substitute player in the middle of a game in '10. Also, Damon got just 8 million dollars from the Tigers after hitting .282 with 28 homers and 82 RBI in '09. He could be a huge bargain for the Yankees. I'm not sure if it's a great fit, but it could work.
Hideki Matsui: Would Matsui come back to the Yankees? He had a pretty good year with the Angels in '10 at age 36, hitting .274 with 21 homers and 84 RBI. But, would he be OK with moving down in the batting order? Even if Matsui became the regular DH for the Yankees again, Posada would take away some DH at-bats and he would hit 6th or 7th. I don't think could work.
Jim Thome: Thome had a pretty good year in '10, with Thome hitting .283 with 25 homers and 59 RBI at age 39. He coul command a relatively big contract, at least for a player his age. He has some pop, but would he be a part time player on the Yankees if another team offers him a starting DH job? I would seriously doubt it.
None of the free agents are a great option, and of course, before possibly signing any of these free agents, the Yankees have to work on re-signing Jeter and Rivera, and signing Cliff Lee (or trading for some other top-flight pitcher). That's a pretty a pretty big obstacle, so I think the Yankees will do the 1st option: Montero and Posada and catcher and DH. With that being said, the Yankees will put their best possible team out there. If Cashman sees a fit in one of the free agents, he won't be afraid to sign him and greatly reduce Posada's at-bats. I still think the Yankees will go with Montero at catcher, Posada at catcher and DH, and a guy like Marcus Thames getting some DH at-bats as well.
I think that there are 2 possibilites: either that the Yankees will use a combination of Jesus Montero and Jorge Posada at catcher and DH, or the Yankees are about to sign a big name free agent to be the DH. Let's go through both possibilities.
Jessus Montero is ready. As I said in my recent post "Introducing the 2011 AL Rookie of the Year: Jesus Montero", Montero is a just a great hitter and an improving defensive catcher. He overcame a terrible start at Triple-A to still put up his usual great year. Posada certainly isn't the player he once was, but he still hit 18 homers in '10. Maybe he could hit 25 or more homers if he catches much less. But, to advocate against it, he hit a homer every 25.5 at-bats as a DH versus every 20.77 at-bats as a catcher. But, since the Yankees have to have Posada on the roster (he's not just going to retire with another year on his contract, and he's untradable), they might as well DH him as often as possible so they don't have to deal with his terrible defense (.986 Fld%, 15% CS%). It will be a nice send-off for Posada, and a nice experience for Montero.
Or, the Yankees could look to the free agent market for an answer at DH. Montero will be in the big leagues in '10, so he will be the starter at catcher, with Posada backing him up and playing some DH, and the free agent playing mostly DH, with some games at his natural position. Let's look at some options for that potential free agent.
Adam Dunn: Dunn is a 40+ homer who plays terrible defense. He hit .260 with 38 homers and 103 RBI in '10 and a .267 with 38 and 105 RBI in '09. The previous 4 years before that, he hit exactly 40 homers every year. He's a very consistent hitter. Just how bad is he defensively? He did post a just a slightly below average Fld% (.990) at 1B in '10! Well, in '09, he posted a terrible .986 Fld% at 1B, a terrrible .953 Fld% in LF, and a disastrous .935 Fld% in RF. He can play the field if neccesary, but it's better to have him DH. Of course, he will command a big contract. Also, what will you do with Posada if Dunn is playing every day? I don't think Dunn is a good option.
Johnny Damon: Damon said that he would want to come back to the Yankees, and he may have a chance. After a bad year, the Yankees might be one of a few teams willing to give him even semi-regular playing time. Damon hit just .271 in '10, with 36 doubles, 8 homers, 51 RBI, 11 SB, 81 runs, and a .355 OBP in 145 games with the TIgers. The Yankees could use Damon as a backup outfielder and a part-time DH along with Posada. He did hit .417 as a substitute player in the middle of a game in '10. Also, Damon got just 8 million dollars from the Tigers after hitting .282 with 28 homers and 82 RBI in '09. He could be a huge bargain for the Yankees. I'm not sure if it's a great fit, but it could work.
Hideki Matsui: Would Matsui come back to the Yankees? He had a pretty good year with the Angels in '10 at age 36, hitting .274 with 21 homers and 84 RBI. But, would he be OK with moving down in the batting order? Even if Matsui became the regular DH for the Yankees again, Posada would take away some DH at-bats and he would hit 6th or 7th. I don't think could work.
Jim Thome: Thome had a pretty good year in '10, with Thome hitting .283 with 25 homers and 59 RBI at age 39. He coul command a relatively big contract, at least for a player his age. He has some pop, but would he be a part time player on the Yankees if another team offers him a starting DH job? I would seriously doubt it.
None of the free agents are a great option, and of course, before possibly signing any of these free agents, the Yankees have to work on re-signing Jeter and Rivera, and signing Cliff Lee (or trading for some other top-flight pitcher). That's a pretty a pretty big obstacle, so I think the Yankees will do the 1st option: Montero and Posada and catcher and DH. With that being said, the Yankees will put their best possible team out there. If Cashman sees a fit in one of the free agents, he won't be afraid to sign him and greatly reduce Posada's at-bats. I still think the Yankees will go with Montero at catcher, Posada at catcher and DH, and a guy like Marcus Thames getting some DH at-bats as well.
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
Who will win the World Series?
Giants-Rangers in the World Series. I want to find the person who predicted that matchup from the beginning of the playoffs, let alone at the beginning of the season. Anyway, who's going to win?
Catcher: Bengie Molina vs. Buster Posey
Molina is a 13-year veteran, and his age (35) definitely showed in '10. He hit just .249 with 12 doubles, 5 homers, 36 RBI, and just a .297 OBP in 118 games, ironically between the Giants and Rangers. But, he has played very well in the playoffs, hitting .357 with a homer and 2 RBI in the ALDS, and .313 with a homer and 5 RBI in the ALCS. He is still a good defensive catcher, as he posted a.993 Fld%, a 23% CS%, and just 4 passed balls. He still has some gas in the tank.
Posey, on the other hand, is playing his rookie season. And what a rookie season it was. He hit .305 with 23 doubles, 18 homers, 67 RBI, and a .357 OBP in 108 games. He has hit .282 with 3 RBI in the playoffs. Posey is also a very good diffensive catcher, as he posted a .991 Fld% in '10 with a 37% CS% and just 1 passed ball. He's a great player with a great career ahead of him.
Advantage: Giants
1st basemen: Mitch Moreland vs. Aubrey Huff
Moreland had a pretty good rookie season, hitting .255 with 4 doubles, 9 homers, 25 RBI, and a .364 OBP in 47 games. (Project thsoe numbers over a full season, and he would have hit .255 with 14 doubles, 31 homers, and 86 RBI.) He has hit .303 with 4 RBI in the playoffs. He has posted a pretty good .993 Fld% at 1B. He's a nice young player who has made Rangers fans all but forget Justin Smoak (traded in the Cliff Lee deal).
At 33, Huff is no longer in his prime, but if you looked at his numbers you wouldn't know. He had a great year in '10, hitting .290 with 35 doubles, 26 homers, 86 RBI, and a .385 OBP in 157 games. He has done OK in the playoffs, hitting .256 with 4 RBI. He is a good defensive 1st baseman, as he posted a .996 Fld% in '10. Eventually, he's going to slow down, but not right now.
Advantage: Giants
2nd basemen: Ian Kinsler vs. Freddy Sanchez
Kinsler missed time with a groin injury, but still had a nice year. He hit .286 with 20 doubles, 9 homers, 45 RBI, 15 SB, and a .382 OBP in 102 games. In '09, he went 30-30, hitting 31 homers and stealing 31 bases. He has had a great postseason, hitting .342 with 3 homers and 9 RBI. He is a pretty good defensive 2B, as he posted a slightly-above average .985 Fld%. He is a very good player and a feared hitter in the Rangers lineup.
Sanchez had a pretty good season in '10, hitting .292 with 22 doubles, 7 homers, 47 RBI, and a .342 OBP in 111 games. He has hit .268 with an RBI in his first postseason. He is still a great defensive 2B, as he as posted a .991 Fld% in '10. He is hampered by a shoulder injury right now. Sanchez is a good player, especially in terms of BA and defense.
Advantage: Rangers
3rd basemen: Michael Young vs. Pablo Sandoval
Young had an great year in '10, hitting .284 with 36 doublles, 21 homers, 91 RBI, 99 runs, and a .330 OBP in 157 games. He has hit .255 with a homer and 7 RBI in the playoffs so far, but .333 in the ALCS. He's a slightly below average defensive 3B, as he posted a .950 Fld% there in '10. Young is still a great player, despite being past his prime and at his 3rd defensive position.
Sandoval had a very disappointing year in '10, hitting .268 with 34 doubles, 13 homers, 63 RBI, and a .323 OBP in 152 games. That came one year after hitting .330 with 44 doubles, 25 homers, 90 RBI and a .387 OBP in 153 games in '09. He has hit just .214 in the playoffs, but he had a key 2-run double in the NLCS. He's actualy a slighty above average 3B, as he posted a .961 Fld%. We know from '09 that Sandoval is a great player who can jump-start the Giants' lineup.
Advantage: Rangers
Shortstop: Elvis Andrus vs. Juan Uribe
Andrus had a nice Sophomore season in '10, hitting .265 with 15 doubles, 0 homers, 35 RBI, 32 SB, 88 runs, and a .342 OBP in 147 games. He has hit .333 with 3 RBI and 7 SB in the playoffs, although he was picked off twice by the Yankees in the ALCS. He's an average defensive SS, as his .976 Fld% in '10 was .003 better than the league average at SS. He is a good leadoff hitter who sets the table for the big hitters behind him.
Suprisingly, almost shockingly, Uribe had the best season of his career as he entered his prime in '10. He hit just .248, but with 24 doubles, 24 homers, 85 RBI, and a .310 OBP in 148 games. But, he hit just .071 in the NLDS with an RBI and just ,214 with a homer and 3 RBI in the NLCS. He is a well above-average defensive SS, as he posted .984 Fld% there in '10, in addition to a .957 Fld% at 3B (slightly above average) and a 1.000 Fld% in 24 games at 2B. He's a good player.
Advantage: Toss-up. They're such different players.
Left Field: Nelson Cruz vs. Pat Burell
Cruz, despite missing time with a hamstring injury, had a great year in '10, hitting .318 with 31 doubles, 22 homers, 78 RBI, 17 SB, and a .374 OBP in 108 games. He's also been amazing in the playoffs, hitting .375 with 5 homers and 8 RBI. He's a below-average defender in RF (.979), but he posted a perfect 1.000 Fld% in LF during the regular season and has often played LF in the playoffs. He's a great player in the middle of the Texas lineup.
Burell had an OK year in '10, hitting .252 with 21 doubles, 20 homers, 64 RBI, and a .348 OBP in 120 games between Tampa and Texas. He hit .200 with a homer and 3 RBI against the Braves in the NLDS, and .211 with an RBI against the Phillies, his former team, in the NLCS. He is an average fielder in LF, posting a .985 Fld%. Burell, at 33 years old, is in decline, but he still has some pop.
Advantage: Rangers
Centerfield: Josh Hamilton vs. Andres Torres:
Hamilton had a ridiculous year in '10, hitting .359 with 40 doubles, 32 homers, 100 RBI, 186 hits, 95 runs, and a .411 OBP in 133 games. He missed the vast majority of September with broken ribs that are still bothering him, at least to some extent. Not that it's possible to tell just from his playoff stats. After hitting just .111 with an RBI in the ALDS against the Rays, he exploded in the ALCS against the Yankees, hitting .350 with 4 homers and 7 RBI. He posted just a .979 Fld% in LF in '10, but a 1.000 Fld% in CF, where he has played in the playoffs. He is just an incredible player.
Torres had a good first full season in the big leagues at age 32. A former Ranger (8 games), Torres hit .268 with 43 doubles, 16 homers, 63 RBI, 8 triples, 84 runs, 26 SB, and a .343 OBP in 139 games. After hitting ,125 in the NLDS, he hit .350 in the NLCS. He has no homers or RBI's in the playoffs, and just 1 SB against 3 CS's. He is a great defensive CF, as he posted a .995 Fld% there in addition to 1.000 Fld%'s in RF and LF. He's a good player, but frankly, he's not anywhere near as good as Hamilton.
Advantage: Rangers
Right Field: David Murphy/Jeff Francoeur vs. Cody Ross
Murphy and Francoeur have been platooning in RF for the Rangers during the playoffs. Murphy, the lefty, hit .291 with 26 doubles, 12 homers, 65 RBI, 14 SB, and a .358 OBP in 138 games. He has hit .200 with a homer and 2 RBI in the playoffs so far. Francoeur, the righty, hit .249 with 18 doubles, 13 homers, 65 RBI, 8 SB, and a .300 OBP in 139 games between the Mets and Rangers. He has hit just .167 with an RBI in the playoffs. Murphy posted a .995 Fld% between all 3 outfield positions, while Francoeur, a one-time Gold Glover, posted a .988 Fld% in RF, but with 11 outfield assists, tops among NL right fielders. Murphy and Francoeur are OK players.
Ross hit .269 with 28 doubles, 14 homers, 65 RBI, 9 SB and a .322 OBP in 153 games between the Marlins and the Giants. He's playing out of his mind in the playoffs right now, hitting .324 with 4 homers and 8 RBI. A natural CF (.994 career Fld%), Ross posted a below average .982 Fld% in RF. He's always been a good player (20 homers in '08 and '09), but right now he's becoming a playoff star.
Advantage: Giants
Total: Rangers 4, Giants 3, 1 toss-up
Vladimir Guerrero will be the DH for Texas. He had a truly great season, hitting .300 with 27 doubles, 29 homers, 115 RBI, 93 runs, and a .345 OBP. But, will the Rangers play him in RF in San Francisco? He posted just a .933 Fld% in 17 games in RF. He's a great hitter, but he could be just a pinch-hitter in San Francisco.
Pitchers:
Aces (Games 1 and 5 unless they go on short rest): Cliff Lee vs. Tim Lincecum
Lee had somewhat of an off-year, going 12-9 with a 3.18 ERA and 185 K's in 28 starts and ironically 212.1 IP. He also had 7 complete games. Of course Lee is probably the best postseason pitcher ever. He went 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA in the ALDS and 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in the ALCS. For his career, he's 7-0 with a 1.26 ERA in 8 starts. He's just ridiculous in the playoffs.
Lincecum also had an off-year '10, at least by his standards. The 2-time defending Cy Young Award winner went 16-10 with a 3.43 ERA and 231 K's (tops in the NL) in 33 starts and 212.1 IP. He has gone 2-1 with a 1.93 ERA in the playoffs. He's undoubtedly a great pitcher.
Advantage: Rangers
Number 2 starters (Games 2 and 6): C.J. Wilson vs. Matt Cain
Wilson had a great first full year as a starter. He went 15-8 with a 3.35 ERA and 170 K's in 33 starts and 204 IP. He led the AL with 93 walks. He has 1-1 with a 3.93 ERA in the playoffs. He's a good pitcher, but he has to improve those playoff numbers.
Cain had a great season in '10, going 13-11 with a 3.14 ERA and 177 K's in 33 starts and 223.1 IP. He has been untouchable, going 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in 2 starts. He's a great pitcher that provides a very good 1-2 punch with Lincecum.
Advantage: Giants
Number 3 starters (games 3 and 7): Colby Lewis vs. Jonathan Sanchez
Lewis had a nice season in '10, going 12-13 with a 3.72 ERA and 196 K's in 32 starts and 202 IP. It was his first season in the majors since '07 because he was in Japan in '08 and '09. He has had an amazing postseason, going 2-0 with a 1.45 ERA in 3 starts. He has played very well.
Sanchez had his first great year as a starter. He went 13-9 with a 3.07 ERA and 205 K's in 33 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 193.1 IP. He has gone 0-1 with a 2.93 ERA in the playoffs. He's a very good pitcher.
Advantage: Toss-up. Sanchez had a better regular season, but Lewis has been better in the playoffs.
Number 4 starters (game 4): Tommy Hunter vs. Madison Bumgarner
Hunter had a good year, going 13-4 with a 3.72 ERA and 68 K's in 22 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 128 innings. He missed April and May with an oblique injury. But, he has been killed in the playoffs, going 0-1 with a 6.14 ERA. He'll have to at least get back to his regular season numbers. He's an OK pitcher.
Bumgarner had a good year also, going 7-6 with a 3.00 ERA and 86 K's in 18 starts and 111 IP after being called up on June 26th. He has gone 0-0 with a 3.55 ERA in the playoffs. He's young, but he has pitched well.
Advantage: Giants
Total- Giants 4, Rangers 3 (let's say the 'advantage' pitchers win all their matchups and Lewis and Sanchez split their 2 games)
Bullpen:
Closer: Neftali Feliz vs. Brian Wilson
Feliz had a great rookie season, going 4-3 with a 2.73 ERA, 71 K's, and 40 saves in 70 relief appearances and 69.1 IP. He has gone 0-0 with a 2.08 ERA in the playoffs (no saves). He's a good young closer.
Wilson had a amazing season as the Giants' closer, going 3-3 with a 1.81 ERA, 93 K's, and 48 saves in 70 relief appearances and 74.2 IP. Those 48 saves led the NL. He has been perfect in the playoffs, going 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 5 saves. He might be the best closer in baseball right now.
Advantage: Giants
Other key members of bullpen:
Rangers: Darren O'Day (6-2, 2.03), Darren Oliver (Lefty; 1-2, 2.48), Alexi Ogando (4-1, 1.30)
Giants: Sergio Romo (5-3, 2.18), Santiago Casilla (7-2, 1.95), Javier Lopez (Lefty; 2-0, 1.42)
Advantage: Rangers
Prediction: Giants in 7- their starting pitching is better, and their hitting and bullpen aren't that much worse.
Catcher: Bengie Molina vs. Buster Posey
Molina is a 13-year veteran, and his age (35) definitely showed in '10. He hit just .249 with 12 doubles, 5 homers, 36 RBI, and just a .297 OBP in 118 games, ironically between the Giants and Rangers. But, he has played very well in the playoffs, hitting .357 with a homer and 2 RBI in the ALDS, and .313 with a homer and 5 RBI in the ALCS. He is still a good defensive catcher, as he posted a.993 Fld%, a 23% CS%, and just 4 passed balls. He still has some gas in the tank.
Posey, on the other hand, is playing his rookie season. And what a rookie season it was. He hit .305 with 23 doubles, 18 homers, 67 RBI, and a .357 OBP in 108 games. He has hit .282 with 3 RBI in the playoffs. Posey is also a very good diffensive catcher, as he posted a .991 Fld% in '10 with a 37% CS% and just 1 passed ball. He's a great player with a great career ahead of him.
Advantage: Giants
1st basemen: Mitch Moreland vs. Aubrey Huff
Moreland had a pretty good rookie season, hitting .255 with 4 doubles, 9 homers, 25 RBI, and a .364 OBP in 47 games. (Project thsoe numbers over a full season, and he would have hit .255 with 14 doubles, 31 homers, and 86 RBI.) He has hit .303 with 4 RBI in the playoffs. He has posted a pretty good .993 Fld% at 1B. He's a nice young player who has made Rangers fans all but forget Justin Smoak (traded in the Cliff Lee deal).
At 33, Huff is no longer in his prime, but if you looked at his numbers you wouldn't know. He had a great year in '10, hitting .290 with 35 doubles, 26 homers, 86 RBI, and a .385 OBP in 157 games. He has done OK in the playoffs, hitting .256 with 4 RBI. He is a good defensive 1st baseman, as he posted a .996 Fld% in '10. Eventually, he's going to slow down, but not right now.
Advantage: Giants
2nd basemen: Ian Kinsler vs. Freddy Sanchez
Kinsler missed time with a groin injury, but still had a nice year. He hit .286 with 20 doubles, 9 homers, 45 RBI, 15 SB, and a .382 OBP in 102 games. In '09, he went 30-30, hitting 31 homers and stealing 31 bases. He has had a great postseason, hitting .342 with 3 homers and 9 RBI. He is a pretty good defensive 2B, as he posted a slightly-above average .985 Fld%. He is a very good player and a feared hitter in the Rangers lineup.
Sanchez had a pretty good season in '10, hitting .292 with 22 doubles, 7 homers, 47 RBI, and a .342 OBP in 111 games. He has hit .268 with an RBI in his first postseason. He is still a great defensive 2B, as he as posted a .991 Fld% in '10. He is hampered by a shoulder injury right now. Sanchez is a good player, especially in terms of BA and defense.
Advantage: Rangers
3rd basemen: Michael Young vs. Pablo Sandoval
Young had an great year in '10, hitting .284 with 36 doublles, 21 homers, 91 RBI, 99 runs, and a .330 OBP in 157 games. He has hit .255 with a homer and 7 RBI in the playoffs so far, but .333 in the ALCS. He's a slightly below average defensive 3B, as he posted a .950 Fld% there in '10. Young is still a great player, despite being past his prime and at his 3rd defensive position.
Sandoval had a very disappointing year in '10, hitting .268 with 34 doubles, 13 homers, 63 RBI, and a .323 OBP in 152 games. That came one year after hitting .330 with 44 doubles, 25 homers, 90 RBI and a .387 OBP in 153 games in '09. He has hit just .214 in the playoffs, but he had a key 2-run double in the NLCS. He's actualy a slighty above average 3B, as he posted a .961 Fld%. We know from '09 that Sandoval is a great player who can jump-start the Giants' lineup.
Advantage: Rangers
Shortstop: Elvis Andrus vs. Juan Uribe
Andrus had a nice Sophomore season in '10, hitting .265 with 15 doubles, 0 homers, 35 RBI, 32 SB, 88 runs, and a .342 OBP in 147 games. He has hit .333 with 3 RBI and 7 SB in the playoffs, although he was picked off twice by the Yankees in the ALCS. He's an average defensive SS, as his .976 Fld% in '10 was .003 better than the league average at SS. He is a good leadoff hitter who sets the table for the big hitters behind him.
Suprisingly, almost shockingly, Uribe had the best season of his career as he entered his prime in '10. He hit just .248, but with 24 doubles, 24 homers, 85 RBI, and a .310 OBP in 148 games. But, he hit just .071 in the NLDS with an RBI and just ,214 with a homer and 3 RBI in the NLCS. He is a well above-average defensive SS, as he posted .984 Fld% there in '10, in addition to a .957 Fld% at 3B (slightly above average) and a 1.000 Fld% in 24 games at 2B. He's a good player.
Advantage: Toss-up. They're such different players.
Left Field: Nelson Cruz vs. Pat Burell
Cruz, despite missing time with a hamstring injury, had a great year in '10, hitting .318 with 31 doubles, 22 homers, 78 RBI, 17 SB, and a .374 OBP in 108 games. He's also been amazing in the playoffs, hitting .375 with 5 homers and 8 RBI. He's a below-average defender in RF (.979), but he posted a perfect 1.000 Fld% in LF during the regular season and has often played LF in the playoffs. He's a great player in the middle of the Texas lineup.
Burell had an OK year in '10, hitting .252 with 21 doubles, 20 homers, 64 RBI, and a .348 OBP in 120 games between Tampa and Texas. He hit .200 with a homer and 3 RBI against the Braves in the NLDS, and .211 with an RBI against the Phillies, his former team, in the NLCS. He is an average fielder in LF, posting a .985 Fld%. Burell, at 33 years old, is in decline, but he still has some pop.
Advantage: Rangers
Centerfield: Josh Hamilton vs. Andres Torres:
Hamilton had a ridiculous year in '10, hitting .359 with 40 doubles, 32 homers, 100 RBI, 186 hits, 95 runs, and a .411 OBP in 133 games. He missed the vast majority of September with broken ribs that are still bothering him, at least to some extent. Not that it's possible to tell just from his playoff stats. After hitting just .111 with an RBI in the ALDS against the Rays, he exploded in the ALCS against the Yankees, hitting .350 with 4 homers and 7 RBI. He posted just a .979 Fld% in LF in '10, but a 1.000 Fld% in CF, where he has played in the playoffs. He is just an incredible player.
Torres had a good first full season in the big leagues at age 32. A former Ranger (8 games), Torres hit .268 with 43 doubles, 16 homers, 63 RBI, 8 triples, 84 runs, 26 SB, and a .343 OBP in 139 games. After hitting ,125 in the NLDS, he hit .350 in the NLCS. He has no homers or RBI's in the playoffs, and just 1 SB against 3 CS's. He is a great defensive CF, as he posted a .995 Fld% there in addition to 1.000 Fld%'s in RF and LF. He's a good player, but frankly, he's not anywhere near as good as Hamilton.
Advantage: Rangers
Right Field: David Murphy/Jeff Francoeur vs. Cody Ross
Murphy and Francoeur have been platooning in RF for the Rangers during the playoffs. Murphy, the lefty, hit .291 with 26 doubles, 12 homers, 65 RBI, 14 SB, and a .358 OBP in 138 games. He has hit .200 with a homer and 2 RBI in the playoffs so far. Francoeur, the righty, hit .249 with 18 doubles, 13 homers, 65 RBI, 8 SB, and a .300 OBP in 139 games between the Mets and Rangers. He has hit just .167 with an RBI in the playoffs. Murphy posted a .995 Fld% between all 3 outfield positions, while Francoeur, a one-time Gold Glover, posted a .988 Fld% in RF, but with 11 outfield assists, tops among NL right fielders. Murphy and Francoeur are OK players.
Ross hit .269 with 28 doubles, 14 homers, 65 RBI, 9 SB and a .322 OBP in 153 games between the Marlins and the Giants. He's playing out of his mind in the playoffs right now, hitting .324 with 4 homers and 8 RBI. A natural CF (.994 career Fld%), Ross posted a below average .982 Fld% in RF. He's always been a good player (20 homers in '08 and '09), but right now he's becoming a playoff star.
Advantage: Giants
Total: Rangers 4, Giants 3, 1 toss-up
Vladimir Guerrero will be the DH for Texas. He had a truly great season, hitting .300 with 27 doubles, 29 homers, 115 RBI, 93 runs, and a .345 OBP. But, will the Rangers play him in RF in San Francisco? He posted just a .933 Fld% in 17 games in RF. He's a great hitter, but he could be just a pinch-hitter in San Francisco.
Pitchers:
Aces (Games 1 and 5 unless they go on short rest): Cliff Lee vs. Tim Lincecum
Lee had somewhat of an off-year, going 12-9 with a 3.18 ERA and 185 K's in 28 starts and ironically 212.1 IP. He also had 7 complete games. Of course Lee is probably the best postseason pitcher ever. He went 2-0 with a 1.13 ERA in the ALDS and 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in the ALCS. For his career, he's 7-0 with a 1.26 ERA in 8 starts. He's just ridiculous in the playoffs.
Lincecum also had an off-year '10, at least by his standards. The 2-time defending Cy Young Award winner went 16-10 with a 3.43 ERA and 231 K's (tops in the NL) in 33 starts and 212.1 IP. He has gone 2-1 with a 1.93 ERA in the playoffs. He's undoubtedly a great pitcher.
Advantage: Rangers
Number 2 starters (Games 2 and 6): C.J. Wilson vs. Matt Cain
Wilson had a great first full year as a starter. He went 15-8 with a 3.35 ERA and 170 K's in 33 starts and 204 IP. He led the AL with 93 walks. He has 1-1 with a 3.93 ERA in the playoffs. He's a good pitcher, but he has to improve those playoff numbers.
Cain had a great season in '10, going 13-11 with a 3.14 ERA and 177 K's in 33 starts and 223.1 IP. He has been untouchable, going 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in 2 starts. He's a great pitcher that provides a very good 1-2 punch with Lincecum.
Advantage: Giants
Number 3 starters (games 3 and 7): Colby Lewis vs. Jonathan Sanchez
Lewis had a nice season in '10, going 12-13 with a 3.72 ERA and 196 K's in 32 starts and 202 IP. It was his first season in the majors since '07 because he was in Japan in '08 and '09. He has had an amazing postseason, going 2-0 with a 1.45 ERA in 3 starts. He has played very well.
Sanchez had his first great year as a starter. He went 13-9 with a 3.07 ERA and 205 K's in 33 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 193.1 IP. He has gone 0-1 with a 2.93 ERA in the playoffs. He's a very good pitcher.
Advantage: Toss-up. Sanchez had a better regular season, but Lewis has been better in the playoffs.
Number 4 starters (game 4): Tommy Hunter vs. Madison Bumgarner
Hunter had a good year, going 13-4 with a 3.72 ERA and 68 K's in 22 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 128 innings. He missed April and May with an oblique injury. But, he has been killed in the playoffs, going 0-1 with a 6.14 ERA. He'll have to at least get back to his regular season numbers. He's an OK pitcher.
Bumgarner had a good year also, going 7-6 with a 3.00 ERA and 86 K's in 18 starts and 111 IP after being called up on June 26th. He has gone 0-0 with a 3.55 ERA in the playoffs. He's young, but he has pitched well.
Advantage: Giants
Total- Giants 4, Rangers 3 (let's say the 'advantage' pitchers win all their matchups and Lewis and Sanchez split their 2 games)
Bullpen:
Closer: Neftali Feliz vs. Brian Wilson
Feliz had a great rookie season, going 4-3 with a 2.73 ERA, 71 K's, and 40 saves in 70 relief appearances and 69.1 IP. He has gone 0-0 with a 2.08 ERA in the playoffs (no saves). He's a good young closer.
Wilson had a amazing season as the Giants' closer, going 3-3 with a 1.81 ERA, 93 K's, and 48 saves in 70 relief appearances and 74.2 IP. Those 48 saves led the NL. He has been perfect in the playoffs, going 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 5 saves. He might be the best closer in baseball right now.
Advantage: Giants
Other key members of bullpen:
Rangers: Darren O'Day (6-2, 2.03), Darren Oliver (Lefty; 1-2, 2.48), Alexi Ogando (4-1, 1.30)
Giants: Sergio Romo (5-3, 2.18), Santiago Casilla (7-2, 1.95), Javier Lopez (Lefty; 2-0, 1.42)
Advantage: Rangers
Prediction: Giants in 7- their starting pitching is better, and their hitting and bullpen aren't that much worse.
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