Dunn to White Sox

The Chicago White Sox have signed 1B Adam Dunn to a 4-year, 56 million dollar deal. Dunn is one of the premier power hitters in the majors right now, having averaged 40 homers and 101 RBI the last 7 seasons. He also posted a .381 OBP over that same stretch. He's certainly a great offensive player, but considering the fact that he's replacing Paul Konerko, will he improve the White Sox?

Let's compare the stats of Dunn and Konerko. Dunn hit .260 with 36 doubles, 38 homers, 103 RBI, 85 runs, and a .356 OBP (his career low) in 158 games for the Nats. He posted a below-average .990 fielding percentage (Fld%) in 153 games at first base. Konerko hit .312 with 30 doubles, 39 homers, 111 RBI, 89 runs, and a .393 OBP (his career high) in 149 games. Using OPS+, Konerko was much more valuable than Dunn, posting a 158 OPS+ to Dunn's 138. He posted a league-average .994 Fld% in 125 games at first base. The cold hard stats say that Konerko was better than Dunn in '10. It's hard to disagree.

So, will Dunn make the White Sox' offense better than it was in '10? No. But, the White Sox made the right move in signing Dunn over Konerko. Why? There are 2 factors: 1) Dunn is 4 years younger than Konerko; and 2) Konerko had a career year. When next season begins, Dunn will be 31 and Konerko will be 35. Common sense says that Dunn has more good years left in him than Konerko. Also, although Konerko had a better year than Dunn in '10, he may not do that again. His career averages per full season are a .288 BA with 28 homers and 90 RBI (I took out 1997 when he appeared in 6 games, but kept 1998, when he appeared in 75). Dunn has hit .250 with 35 homers and 88 RBI. If both players return to their career averages, Konerko will still be better because he has a better BA and more RBI per season, but you have to keep in mind that the White Sox are better than Dunn's previous teams, the Reds and Nationals (along with the D-backs for half a season) were much worse than the White Sox so Dunn will get more RBI's and he has averaged 101 RBI the last 7 seasons. His career average for RBI's is skewed because he averages 57 RBI per season from '01 to '03. Also, you have to expect Konerko to begin declining within a couple years, so the Dunn will definitely be better over the next 4 seasons.

In conclusion, although it may look like the White Sox are actually going to regress offensively by signing Dunn over Konerko, the move is definitely the right one because Dunn will definitely be better than Konerko over the life of his contract.

Yankees decline options on Berkman, Johnson

The Yankees have declined their options on designated hitters Lance Berkman and Nick Johnson. What does that mean for 2011?

I think that there are 2 possibilites: either that the Yankees will use a combination of Jesus Montero and Jorge Posada at catcher and DH, or the Yankees are about to sign a big name free agent to be the DH. Let's go through both possibilities.

Jessus Montero is ready. As I said in my recent post "Introducing the 2011 AL Rookie of the Year: Jesus Montero", Montero is a just a great hitter and an improving defensive catcher. He overcame a terrible start at Triple-A to still put up his usual great year. Posada certainly isn't the player he once was, but he still hit 18 homers in '10. Maybe he could hit 25 or more homers if he catches much less. But, to advocate against it, he hit a homer every 25.5 at-bats as a DH versus every 20.77 at-bats as a catcher. But, since the Yankees have to have Posada on the roster (he's not just going to retire with another year on his contract, and he's untradable), they might as well DH him as often as possible so they don't have to deal with his terrible defense (.986 Fld%, 15% CS%). It will be a nice send-off for Posada, and a nice experience for Montero.

Or, the Yankees could look to the free agent market for an answer at DH. Montero will be in the big leagues in '10, so he will be the starter at catcher, with Posada backing him up and playing some DH, and the free agent playing mostly DH, with some games at his natural position. Let's look at some options for that potential free agent.

Adam Dunn: Dunn is a 40+ homer who plays terrible defense. He hit .260 with 38 homers and 103 RBI in '10 and a .267 with 38 and 105 RBI in '09. The previous 4 years before that, he hit exactly 40 homers every year. He's a very consistent hitter. Just how bad is he defensively? He did post a just a slightly below average Fld% (.990) at 1B in '10! Well, in '09, he posted a terrible .986 Fld% at 1B, a terrrible .953 Fld% in LF, and a disastrous .935 Fld% in RF. He can play the field if neccesary, but it's better to have him DH. Of course, he will command a big contract. Also, what will you do with Posada if Dunn is playing every day? I don't think Dunn is a good option.

Johnny Damon: Damon said that he would want to come back to the Yankees, and he may have a chance. After a bad year, the Yankees might be one of a few teams willing to give him even semi-regular playing time. Damon hit just .271 in '10, with 36 doubles, 8 homers, 51 RBI, 11 SB, 81 runs, and a .355 OBP in 145 games with the TIgers. The Yankees could use Damon as a backup outfielder and a part-time DH along with Posada. He did hit .417 as a substitute player in the middle of a game in '10. Also, Damon got just 8 million dollars from the Tigers after hitting .282 with 28 homers and 82 RBI in '09. He could be a huge bargain for the Yankees. I'm not sure if it's a great fit, but it could work.

Hideki Matsui: Would Matsui come back to the Yankees? He had a pretty good year with the Angels in '10 at age 36, hitting .274 with 21 homers and 84 RBI. But, would he be OK with moving down in the batting order? Even if Matsui became the regular DH for the Yankees again, Posada would take away some DH at-bats and he would hit 6th or 7th. I don't think could work.

Jim Thome: Thome had a pretty good year in '10, with Thome hitting .283 with 25 homers and 59 RBI at age 39. He coul command a relatively big contract, at least for a player his age. He has some pop, but would he be a part time player on the Yankees if another team offers him a starting DH job? I would seriously doubt it.

None of the free agents are a great option, and of course, before possibly signing any of these free agents, the Yankees have to work on re-signing Jeter and Rivera, and signing Cliff Lee (or trading for some other top-flight pitcher). That's a pretty a pretty big obstacle, so I think the Yankees will do the 1st option: Montero and Posada and catcher and DH. With that being said, the Yankees will put their best possible team out there. If Cashman sees a fit in one of the free agents, he won't be afraid to sign him and greatly reduce Posada's at-bats. I still think the Yankees will go with Montero at catcher, Posada at catcher and DH, and a guy like Marcus Thames getting some DH at-bats as well.

Strasburg dominates in his first MLB start

Strasburg's line pretty much tells it all: 7.0 IP, 4 hits, 2 runs, 0 walks, and 14 strikeouts. Yeah, that's right, 14 strikeouts. 2/3 of his outs in the game were via the strikeout. 0 walks- how incredible is that! 14 strikeouts and 0 walks. That's an infinity K/BB! 14/0! Not to mention that his K/9 after that 1 start is now a ridiculous 18.0. A couple more stats: Strasburg started off with a strike to 16 of 24 batters and had a very good 5-2 ground-ball ratio. Wait a second- only 7 combined ground balls and fly balls in a 7 inning start! Well, when you strike out 14, you can do that. His only mistake was a changeup right over the plate to Delwyn Young which resulted in a 2-run homer. Strasburg got the win with help from homers by Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Dunn, and Josh Willingham. The final score of the game was 5-2.

Just present Strasburg with the NL Rookie of the Year award right now. I'm impressed. I might even have to admit that I was wrong about Strasburg in my recent post about him (Nats prospect Stephen Strasburg makes his MLB debut). He'll be the NL ROY- you can book that.