Is Marlins prospect Mike Stanton ready for the majors?

In this post I will answer 2 questions: Is Marlins outfield prospect Mike Stanton ready for the majors right now? and How great of a slugger has he been so far in his minor league career?

Stanton has really gotten off to a great start in Double-A Jacksonville. He has hit .301 with 11 doubles, 18 homers, 48 RBI, 34 runs, and a .431 OBP in 47 games. Stanton has led the minors in homers most of the year. Also, he's averaging over 1 RBI per game, which is amazing. In addition, he has posted a perfect 1.000 Fld% in the outfield. He has primarily played RF, but he has also played 2 games in LF.

The question with Stanton is his contact rate. As evidenced by Stanton's just 11 doubles compared to his 18 homers, Stanton really doesn't make a lot of contact, but when he does make contact, he very often hits homers. He is 52 hits so far in '10 and he has 18 homers. So, 35% of his hits are homers. Also, Stanton has homered at a rate of once every 9.6 at-bats, a very good rate. Stanton really has the potential to be a great power hitter in the majors, but will he make enough contact to maintain a good BA?

For his minor league career, 27% of Stanton's hits have been homers and he has homered at a rate of once every 13.7 at-bats. Let's compare those numbers to the numbers of some major league sluggers. During his major league career, 29% of Ryan Howard's hits have been homers and he has homered at a rate of once every 12.6 at-bats. For Prince Fielder, 23% of his hits have been homers, and he has homered at a rate of once every 15.4 at-bats. For Alex Rodriguez (not including his juiced years of '01 to '03), 22% of his hits have been homers, and he has homered at a rate of once every 15.3 at-bats. (Unrelated note: A-rod has 434 career homers without steroids, so in my opinion, he will need to reach 500 homers without steroids to be a legitimate Hall of Famer. He currently has 590 homers including steroids, so in my opinion, homer number 656 will be the homer that makes him a Hall of Famer.) For Albert Pujols, 21% of his hits have been homers and he has homered at a rate of once every 14.1 at-bats. For Ken Griffey Jr., 23% of his hits in his career have been homers, and he has homered at a rate of once every 15.6 at-bats. Stanton seems to be most similar to Ryan Howard, but maybe a few homers worse. Howard has averaged 44 homers per full season, so maybe Stanton could average 42 homers per full season. Still, that's a lot of homers and if he's anywhere near as good as Howard, he'll be a great player.

We'll have to see what the Marlins do. Stanton has great numberts so far in Double-A, but the Marlins might want to move him up to Triple-A first. Whether he is called up within a couple of months from now this season or callled up next year, he will show great power in the majors and be a Rookie of the Year candidate. The only question with him is his contact rate.

The glory years of Jose Lima

Jose Lima, who passed away at age 37 yesterday from a heart attack, mostly wasn't anything special during his career. But, for two years he was one of the best pitchers in baseball.

During his career, Lima appeared to be a bad pitcher. In his career, he was 89-102 with a 5.26 ERA. But, from 1998 to 1999, he had 2 very good years. In 1998, he burst on to the scene after 2 sub-par years as a reliever, in 1996 for the Tigers and 1997 for the Astros. But, in 1998 with the Astros, he was converted into a starter and had a great year, going 16-8 with a 3.70 ERA and 169 K's in 33 starts and 233.1 IP. He averaged over 7 innings per start, striking out 6.5 batters per 9 innings and walking just 1.2. His 5.28 K/BB ratio was the best in the NL. He didn't get any Cy Young votes that year, but no one on the list posted an ERA over 2.90. (Tom Glavine won the 1998 NL Cy Young award, and Trevor Hoffman finished 2nd.)

In 1999, Lima had a great first half, going 13-4 with a 3.23 ERA and 96 K's in 19 starts and 139.1 IP and was named to the NL all-star team. He pitched 1 inning in the all-star game, giving up no runs on just 1 hit. His 2nd half wasn't as good as he went 8-6 with a 4.04 ERA and 91 K's in 16 starts and 107 IP. Still, overall on the year, Lima went 21-10 with a 3.58 ERA and 187 K's in 35 starts and 246.1 IP. He finished 4th in the NL Cy Young voting to Randy Johnson, Mike Hampton, and Kevin Millwood. It was an incredible year for him. He was so good that his salary was doubled in 2000 to over 5 million dollars. But, he never lived up to that contract.

In 2000 he went just 7-16 with a 6.65 ERA. He continued to struggle in '01 and '02, going 10-18 between the 2 years with a 6.18 ERA. He showed some flashes of his former glory in '03, going 8-3 with a 4.91 ERA. In '04, Lima finally put it back together. He went 13-5 with a 4.07 ERA and 93 K's in 24 starts, 12 relief appearances, and 170.1 IP. It wasn't all-star quality, but it appeared he could at least be a decent pitcher. But, he finished up his MLB career with 5-16 with a 6.99 ERA with the Royals in '05, and an 0-4 record and a 9.87 ERA with the Mets in '06. After toiling in the minors in '07 and '08, he was done.

Jose Lima was a great pitcher, but just for a brief time. Every other season of his career besides 1, he was a bad pitcher. But, for those 2 years, he was a great pitcher, one of the best in the NL.

(Lima reportedly was on the list of the 103 names who tested positive for steroids in '03. Did he juice and that was the reason he was so good for just 2 years? I can't say for sure, but that definitely was a possibility.)