I just did a post on whether Marlins prospect Mike Stanton is ready for the majors, so it got me thinking about the Marlins outfield. Then I saw the stats on the Marlins left fielder, 2009 NL Rookie of the Year Chris Coghlan. He is really doing bad. What's going on?
Marlins LF Chris Coghlan was called to the majors on May 8th, 2009, going 2 for 4. But, after starting off with a bang, Coghlan really slowed down. He was hitting just .143 on May 23rd, and just .212 on May 31th. But then he hit .294 in June to improve his BA to .262. But then he hit .231 in July which sent his BA down to .252. The Marlins were waiting to see which Coghlan they would see- the May and July version who struggled, or the June version who did fine. Coghlan showed that he really would excel, as he hit .385 in August and .390 in September/October. He finished batting .321 with 31 doubles, 6 triples, 9 homers, 47 RBI, 8 SB, 84 runs, and a .390 OBP in 128 games. He did have some struggles defensively in left field, as he posted just .977 Fld% (league average: .982). Still, he was good enough to win the NL Rookie of the Year award over J.A. Happ, Tommy Hanson, and others. The Marlins had big expectations for him entering this year.
Right now in 2010, Coghlan is hitting just .237 with 6 doubles, 3 homers, 15 RBI, 6 stolen bases, and a .284 OBP in 49 games. His power numbers and stolen bases are on pace to be better than '09, but the .237 BA and .284 OBP are very low. Last year at this time, Coghlan was hitting just .213, but with a much better .356 OBP. Also, since Coghlan debuted on May 8th, his 49th game with July 1st. He was hitting .262 after 49 games with a .360 OBP. Coghlan has struggled before, but not like this. Let's look into the stats to find out what's going on.
Let's start with some very clear differences between Coghlan '09 season and his '10 season. In '09, he got very lucky- he hit .365 on balls in play, but in '10 his BA on balls in play is .294, a big difference. In '09, Coghlan, who bats lefty, hit .323 against righties and .316 against lefties. It didn't make that much of a difference whether he was facing a righty or a lefty- in both cases he did well. But in '10, Coghlan has hit just .250 against righties and .204 against lefties. He's bad overall so far in '10, but now also lefties neutralize him. That obviously is a big problem.
Now, let's look at Coghlan's clutch stats. In '09, Coghlan hit .352 with runners in scoring position. But in those situations in '10, Coghlan has hit just .174. In '09, Coghlan hit .342 with runners on base, compared to .250 so far in '10. Also, Coghlan hit .308 with 2 outs and runners and scoring position in '09, but he has hit just .176 in those situations in '10.
In 2009, there were 427 times where Coghlan hit a ball in play excluding sac bunts and sac flies (it could have been a foul ball caught by fielders). About 48.2% of those hits were grounders, about 27% of them were fly balls, about 23.4% were line drives, and 1.4% of his hits were bunts. So far in '10, Coghlan has hit 145 balls in play besides sac flies and sac bunts. About 59.3% of those hits have been grounders, 20% of those hits have been fly balls, about 19.3% have been line drives, and about 1.4% have been bunts. So, he's hitting grounders at a way higher rate in '10, and that has caused him to hit fewer fly balls and fewer line drives.
So, to sum up this post, the reason Coghlan is doing much worse in '10 than '09 is that unlike '09, lefties are neutralizing him, he is hitting much worse in the clutch, and he is hitting ground balls at a much higher rate. He'll just have to work with his hitting coach to fix those problems.
Here's the link to the Mike Stanton post: http://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/659425-is-marlins-prospect-mike-stanton-ready-for-the-majors.
Showing posts with label Mike Stanton. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mike Stanton. Show all posts
Wednesday, June 2, 2010
Tuesday, June 1, 2010
Is Marlins prospect Mike Stanton ready for the majors?
In this post I will answer 2 questions: Is Marlins outfield prospect Mike Stanton ready for the majors right now? and How great of a slugger has he been so far in his minor league career?
Stanton has really gotten off to a great start in Double-A Jacksonville. He has hit .301 with 11 doubles, 18 homers, 48 RBI, 34 runs, and a .431 OBP in 47 games. Stanton has led the minors in homers most of the year. Also, he's averaging over 1 RBI per game, which is amazing. In addition, he has posted a perfect 1.000 Fld% in the outfield. He has primarily played RF, but he has also played 2 games in LF.
The question with Stanton is his contact rate. As evidenced by Stanton's just 11 doubles compared to his 18 homers, Stanton really doesn't make a lot of contact, but when he does make contact, he very often hits homers. He is 52 hits so far in '10 and he has 18 homers. So, 35% of his hits are homers. Also, Stanton has homered at a rate of once every 9.6 at-bats, a very good rate. Stanton really has the potential to be a great power hitter in the majors, but will he make enough contact to maintain a good BA?
For his minor league career, 27% of Stanton's hits have been homers and he has homered at a rate of once every 13.7 at-bats. Let's compare those numbers to the numbers of some major league sluggers. During his major league career, 29% of Ryan Howard's hits have been homers and he has homered at a rate of once every 12.6 at-bats. For Prince Fielder, 23% of his hits have been homers, and he has homered at a rate of once every 15.4 at-bats. For Alex Rodriguez (not including his juiced years of '01 to '03), 22% of his hits have been homers, and he has homered at a rate of once every 15.3 at-bats. (Unrelated note: A-rod has 434 career homers without steroids, so in my opinion, he will need to reach 500 homers without steroids to be a legitimate Hall of Famer. He currently has 590 homers including steroids, so in my opinion, homer number 656 will be the homer that makes him a Hall of Famer.) For Albert Pujols, 21% of his hits have been homers and he has homered at a rate of once every 14.1 at-bats. For Ken Griffey Jr., 23% of his hits in his career have been homers, and he has homered at a rate of once every 15.6 at-bats. Stanton seems to be most similar to Ryan Howard, but maybe a few homers worse. Howard has averaged 44 homers per full season, so maybe Stanton could average 42 homers per full season. Still, that's a lot of homers and if he's anywhere near as good as Howard, he'll be a great player.
We'll have to see what the Marlins do. Stanton has great numberts so far in Double-A, but the Marlins might want to move him up to Triple-A first. Whether he is called up within a couple of months from now this season or callled up next year, he will show great power in the majors and be a Rookie of the Year candidate. The only question with him is his contact rate.
Stanton has really gotten off to a great start in Double-A Jacksonville. He has hit .301 with 11 doubles, 18 homers, 48 RBI, 34 runs, and a .431 OBP in 47 games. Stanton has led the minors in homers most of the year. Also, he's averaging over 1 RBI per game, which is amazing. In addition, he has posted a perfect 1.000 Fld% in the outfield. He has primarily played RF, but he has also played 2 games in LF.
The question with Stanton is his contact rate. As evidenced by Stanton's just 11 doubles compared to his 18 homers, Stanton really doesn't make a lot of contact, but when he does make contact, he very often hits homers. He is 52 hits so far in '10 and he has 18 homers. So, 35% of his hits are homers. Also, Stanton has homered at a rate of once every 9.6 at-bats, a very good rate. Stanton really has the potential to be a great power hitter in the majors, but will he make enough contact to maintain a good BA?
For his minor league career, 27% of Stanton's hits have been homers and he has homered at a rate of once every 13.7 at-bats. Let's compare those numbers to the numbers of some major league sluggers. During his major league career, 29% of Ryan Howard's hits have been homers and he has homered at a rate of once every 12.6 at-bats. For Prince Fielder, 23% of his hits have been homers, and he has homered at a rate of once every 15.4 at-bats. For Alex Rodriguez (not including his juiced years of '01 to '03), 22% of his hits have been homers, and he has homered at a rate of once every 15.3 at-bats. (Unrelated note: A-rod has 434 career homers without steroids, so in my opinion, he will need to reach 500 homers without steroids to be a legitimate Hall of Famer. He currently has 590 homers including steroids, so in my opinion, homer number 656 will be the homer that makes him a Hall of Famer.) For Albert Pujols, 21% of his hits have been homers and he has homered at a rate of once every 14.1 at-bats. For Ken Griffey Jr., 23% of his hits in his career have been homers, and he has homered at a rate of once every 15.6 at-bats. Stanton seems to be most similar to Ryan Howard, but maybe a few homers worse. Howard has averaged 44 homers per full season, so maybe Stanton could average 42 homers per full season. Still, that's a lot of homers and if he's anywhere near as good as Howard, he'll be a great player.
We'll have to see what the Marlins do. Stanton has great numberts so far in Double-A, but the Marlins might want to move him up to Triple-A first. Whether he is called up within a couple of months from now this season or callled up next year, he will show great power in the majors and be a Rookie of the Year candidate. The only question with him is his contact rate.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)