The Houston Astros had a terrible first half in '10, going 36-53, 5th in the NL Central. They were in last place until June 8th. But, in the second half, the Astros were a decent team, going 40-33 in the second half, finishing 76-86, 3rd in the division. Will that second half propel them into contention in 2011?
Catcher:
The Astros have always had great expectations for Jason Castro. Castro was the 10th overall pick out of Castro Valley High School (Castro Valley, California) in the 2008 MLB draft. Entering 2009, he was Baseball America's 53rd-best prospect in the minors, and entering 2010, he was 41st. He was widely ranked as the top prospect in the Astros organization. His time is now. Castro, now 23, made his major league debut in '10, but he didn't do as well as expected, hitting .205 with 8 doubles, 2 homers, 8 RBI, and a .286 OBP in 67 games. Defensively though, Castro played pretty well, posting a .996 Fld% and a 37% CS%. But, he allowed 7 passed balls. So, Castro didn't apparently play very well in his big league debut. But, stats can be deceiving. Castro had a .250 BAbip. He was unlucky. Also, Castro had an above-average 20% LD%, so you would expect him to have a BAbip at least slightly over .300. Castro also had a slightly-above average 70% IP%. Castro was not just unlucky in terms of BAbip, but also in terms of HR/FB. He had just a 2.9% HR/FB. When everything is neutralized, Castro was going to be be fine. Defensively, hopefully someone can work with him on blocking balls, and unless he's Jorge Posada, he was going to be fine in that regard as well. But, Castro hurt his right knee this past Wednesday, tearing his ACL and medial meniscus. Castro could be out for all of 2011.
Castro was going to be be backed up by Humberto Quintero. Quintero is a 31 year old career backup. He hit .234 in '10 with 10 doubles, 4 homers, 20 RBI, and just a .262 OBP in 88 games. He's good defensively, and 2010 was no exception, considering he posted a .992 Fld%, 35% CS%, and he allowed 4 passed balls. He's a decent backup catcher, but it doesn't appear that he could step in as a starter.
J.R. Towles was actually Houston's opening day catcher in '10, but after hitting .191 with 3 doubles, 1 homer, 8 RBI, and a .235 OBP in 17 games, he was sent down to Double-A Corpus Christi where he almost immediately broke a bone in his hand, ending his season. Towles is healthy now. Could he potentially take over for Castro at catcher in 2011 and be effective this time? There isn't really enough of a sample size for Towles in the majors (he's never played more than 54 games in a season), so let's look at his minor league stats. Towles hasn't even had a full minor league season since 2007. That year, Towles hit .287 with 15 doubles, 11 homers, 62 RBI, 14 stolen bases (13 CS), and a .393 OBP in 100 games. Towles had a .312 BAbip that year, so he wasn't overly lucky. If he could somehow put up numbers anywhere near that in the majors, the Astros would be happy. Towles had a .297/.390/.470 (BA/OBP/SLG) line in the minors, but you can't like his .189/.273/.327 line in 101 major league games. But, he did have just a .220 BAbip, although you can't like his 12% LD%. Maybe with more chance, Towles could put everything together. If not, the Astros will probably have to make a trade. Towles is pretty good defensively, owing a .995 MLB Fld%, and a .992 FLd% in the minors, both with a 29% CS%. Castro had the potential to be a very good player for the Astros in 2011, but with him hurt, the positon of catcher is a huge question mark for the team.
First base:
Brett Wallace is the most well-traveled 24 year old you have ever seen. The 24 year old was the 13th overall pick by the Cardinals in the 2008 MLB draft. Before the trade deadline in 2009, Wallace was traded to the A's in the Matt Holliday deal. That offseason, he was traded to Toronto in the Halladay-Lee trade (he was traded to Toronto for Michael Taylor, a prospect who the Blue Jays had just acquired from the Phillies). Then, at the 2010 trade deadline, he was traded to Houston (on the heels of the Roy Oswalt trade), where he finally made his big league debut, hitting .222 with 6 doubles, 2 homers, 13 RBI, and a .286 OBP in 51 games. His main claim to fame was that he was hit by 7 pitches while walking just 8 times. Wallace's 2010 stats certainly weren't great, but as we learned with Castro, stats can be deceiving. Is it the same story with Wallace? No. He had a .326 BAbip. He needed a .326 BAbip to hit .222! He had just a 17% LD% and just a 58% IP%. It was a small sample size, but he was terrible in 2010. He did have a 4.4% HR/FB, so he was pretty unlucky in that regard, but even if that had been at neutral in 2010, he still wouldn't have had a good year (he would have had another homer or two, another couple RBI, and maybe a .230 BA at best). Based on these stats, you have to be worried about Wallace as a big league regular. But, it was a small sample size, 159 plate appearances. In the minors, Wallace had .304 BA and a .350 BAbip. He was lucky. But, in 2009, he wasn't so lucky. He had just a .272 BAbip. That season, he posted his lowest BA in the minors, but he certainly survived, hitting .293. You have to hope that Wallace will make some kind of adjustment at the big league level in 2011. Defensively, Wallace owns a .992 Fld% in the majors and a .993 Fld% in the minors at first base, both right around the league average. He's decent defensively.
Wallace will be backed up by Jeff Keppinger and Brian Bogusevic. Keppinger, who will turn 31 in April, is expected to miss the first six weeks of the 2011 season after undergoing foot surgery. Keppinger was Houston's primary second baseman in '10, hitting .288 with 34 doubles, 6 homers, 59 RBI, and a .351 OBP in 137 games. He posted a very good .990 Fld% at second base. After Bill Hall was signed, Keppinger was pushed into a utility role. Keppinger is very good defensively at his natural position, second base, owning a .989 career Fld%, and he also has experience at every other position besides centerfield, pitcher and catcher. Keppinger is a very good backup, and if Wallace fails to meet expectations again, Keppinger could possibly step in as the starter.
Bogusevic has finally gotten to the majors after a very interesting journey through the minors. Bogusevic, 27, was the 24th overall pick in the 2005 draft- as a pitcher. After an awful pro debut in 2005 at Short Season-A (0-2, 7.59 in 13 RA's), Bogusevic made strides in '06 and '07, going 12-13 with a 4.62 ERA, a 7.1 K/9, a 3.4 BB/9, and a 0.6 HR/9 in 47 starts and 220 IP between SS-A, Low-A, High-A, and Double-A. But, after going 2-6 with a 5.50 ERA in 17 starts at Double-A in 2008, the Astros converted Bogusevic to the outfield, and the results were certainly encouraging. Between High-A and Double-A, He hit .347 with 12 doubles, 4 homers, 26 RBI, 9 stolen bases, and a .432 OBP in 59 games. He did have a .398 BAbip and it was such a small sample size that still nobody could be sure whether the conversion to the outfield would be successful. Bogusevic made just 1 error defensively between right field and centerfield. In 2009, the Astros promoted Bogusevic to Triple-A, and while he couldn't duplicate his .347 BA and .432 OBP, he still had a decent year, hitting .271 with 25 doubles, 6 homers, 53 RBI, 22 stolen bases, and a .342 OBP in 138 games. He still had a .341 BAbip, but at least he proved to be a decent player with a reasonable BAbip (rather than his unreal .398 BAbip in '08). Defensively, he was perfect in centerfield while posting a .970 Fld% (5 errors) in left field. In 2010, Bogusevic hit .277 at Triple-A with 26 doubles, 13 homers, 57 RBI, 91 runs, 23 stolen bases, and a .364 OBP in 131 games. His BAbip went down to an even more reasonable .329, and he still had a good season. Bogusevic was perfect defensively at all three outfield positions, and he also posted a .991 Fld% while playing first base for the first time as a pro. He had a very good minor league season, and it was good enough to earn him a September call-up. He hit just .179 in 31 plate appearances, but 3 of his 5 hits were doubles. He was perfect defensively in the outfield. Bogusevic has nothing left to prove in the minors, so you have to think he'll make the Astros in some capacity in 2011. He can play first base and the outfield well defensively, and what he lacks in power, he makes up in speed. There are several scenarios where Bogusevic ends up starting somewhere for the Astros. If Wallace fails, he could either take over for him at first base and be among the most wrongly-positioned players in baseball. (How many first baseman don't hit 20 homers and instead steal 20 bases?) Or, Carlos Lee could move to first base and Bogusevic could play left field. We'll have to see what happens, but no matter how everything plays out, Bogusevic will be an effective player for the Astros, whether as a backup or a starter. Brett Wallace has one more chance to prove himself as a big league first baseman, and if he fails, the Astros will replace him in a heartbeat.
Second baseman:
This offseason, the Astros signed Bill Hall to a 1 year, 3 million dollar contract with a mutual option for 2012. Hall will be a regular second baseman for the first time in his career. Hall played every position besides first base and catcher for Boston in 2011, and he hit .247 with 16 doubles, 18 homers, 46 RBI, 9 stolen bases, and a .316 OBP in 119 games. He accumulated 382 plate appearances because of the injuries to Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury. Hall had a league average .300 BAbip, so you would think that unless he's lucky or unlucky in 2011, he should hit around .250 again. But, Hall posted a significantly above-average 22% LD% (he also has a 22% career LD%), so you would think he would have a considerably higher BAbip. I wouldn't be that surprised if Hall could hit .270 or .280 with average luck based on his line drive rate. But, two other factors were a problem for Hall in 2011. He had a 13.2% HR/FB, the second-highest of his career to his '06 season when he hit 35 homers, and he posted just a 58% IP%, way off from the league average of 69%. Based on these stats, Hall's LD% and IP% will cancel out and he'll hit around .250 again, and he'll hit around 20 homers because he'll have more AB's in 2011 than he did in '10. Obviously though, Hall could make an adjustment. As a pitcher, Halll appeared in 1 game, pitching 1 perfect inning. Defensively, he posted an above-average .988 Fld% in left field, but he posted just a .966 Fld% at second base with poor range and was below-average at every other position he played. That has to be at least somewhat worrisome for the Astros. In 155 career games at second base, Hall has a .960 Fld%. But, Hall set a career-high with just 51 games at second base in 2011. Maybe with regular time at the position he would improve. Hall will be backed up Keppinger. Hall will be at least a decent player for the Astros in 2011.
Third base:
26 year old Chris Johnson came out of nowhere to have a nice rookie season for the Astros in 2010, hitting .308, tops among MLB rookies, with 22 doubles, 11 homers, 52 RBI, and a .337 OBP in 94 games. But, entering 2010, Johnson had never hit .300 at any level as a pro (he hit .326 in 38 Triple-A games in 2010). Was his .300 BA a fluke? At first glance, yes. He had a crazy .387 BAbip. But, there was a clear reason for his high BAbip: he had an incredible 26% LD%. To put that in perspective, Albert Pujols owns 'just' a 21% LD%. Johnson mashes line drives like there's no tomorrow. I can't find LD% for minor league players anywhere, but it seems pretty clear that Johnson has made an adjustment from his minor league days, just like most players do. Maybe Johnson won't manage a .387 BAbip again in 2011, but it certainly seems like he'll be able to post BA's around .300 for years to come. Johnson's power in '10 was no fluke either, considering he had a 7.7% HR/FB. Johnson is a good offensive player for the Astros. But, I haven't mentioned his defense yet. Johnson posted just a .909 Fld% at third base in '10. His 18 errors were second-most in the NL. And its not like he showed great range either: the league average RF/9 (range factor per 9 innings) for third baseman in '10 was a 2.54. Johnson's RF/9 was just 2.02. He's a terrible defensive third baseman. But, is he that bad? How did he manage just a .909 Fld% compared to the league average of .953? What's very strange is that Johnson owns a .936 career Fld% at third base in the majors with an above-average RF/G (range factor per game). That's still bad, but not terrible. But, in 2010 in the minors, Johnson posted just a .905 Fld%. What happened to Johnson defensively in 2010? My guess would be that while he was on an offensive tear, he lost focus defensively. He had a .947 Fld% in the minors with decent range as recently in 2009. This season, I'm sure Johnson will improve defensively and still hit around .300 offensively with at least 15 or 20 homers. He's a good player for the Astros. Johnson will be backed up by Keppinger. Chris Johnson is not just the name of the Tennessee Titans' 2000-yard rusher; it's also the name of the Astros' solid third baseman.
Shortstop:
This offseason, the Astros acquired middle infielder Clint Barmes from the Astros from the Rockies in exchange for Felipe Paulino. The question I asked in my Rockies preview was 'why would the Rockies trade their starting second baseman for a starting pitcher they didn't need?' (not an exact quote from my other post). The answer from the Rockies perspective was that Paulino is actually much better than the 'regular' stats say he is. How about the Astros perspective. Why didn't they value Paulino as much as the Rockies do? Well, as we'll see later, the Astros have an abundance of decent starting pitching, and Tommy Manzella was not the answer at shortstop for them. But, is Barmes that much better? In 2010, Barmes, who will turn 32 on March 6th, hit just .235 with 21 doubles, 8 homers, 50 RBI, 3 stolen bases (2 CS), and just a .305 OBP in 133 games. Manzella hit .225 with 7 doubles, 1 homer, 21 RBI, 0 stolen bases (1 CS), and a .267 OBP in 83 games. OK, Barmes was better, but he was pretty bad himself. In 2009 though, Barmes had a career-year of sorts, hitting .245 with 32 doubles, 23 homers, 76 RBI, 12 stolen bases (10 CS), and a .294 OBP in 154 games. It's hard to like that .294 OBP, though. The Astros are obviously hoping he can get back to that level. Barmes' BAbip didn't decrease very much from 2009 to 2010, going zdown .08 from .271 to .263, although his HR/FB shot down from 9.3% to 4.4%. It's interesting that Barmes owns just a .281 career BAbip despite a 20% LD%, 22% in both '09 and '10. If everything evens out, Barmes could theoretically hit .270 with 20 homers. Of course, that would probably be with an OBP right around .300. That would still be decent. But, we haven't mentioned one key factor for Barmes: the Coors factor. How will Barmes hit after leaving Mile High? Baseball-Reference's Neutralized Batting tool had him hitting just .229 in '10 if he had played on a neutral field. He would have hit .223 on the 2010 Astros. If he hits that badly, he would be just as bad offensively as Manzella! The Astros have to hope that Barmes' BAbip goes back up to .300 or better after a two-year hiatus. If that happens, Barmes could still have a decent year for Houston. I wish I could say that there's some possibility of Manzella improving offensively, but he had a pretty-neutral .302 BAbip. Also, he had a below-average 18% LD%. He hit .270 because with a .317 BAbip in the minors.There's some possibility he just had an awfully-timed off-year (considering it cost him his starting job), but even if he hit .270, Manzella has no power and not much speed (he stole 12 or more bases in 3 minor league seasons). His value was supposed to be his defense. Manzella was slightly above-average in 2011, posting a .973 Fld% compared to the league average of .971, and a 4.38 RF/9 compared to the league average of 4.31, but that's not nearly enough to offset his poor offense. For Barmes though, his incredible defense makes up for his poor OBP (he really needs to rebound otherwise). But, Barmes owns just a .975 Fld% overall. Why? He gets to balls that practically no other players in the majors would get to. At second base, his primary position the past couple of years, Barmes has a .982 career Fld%, below the league average of .984, but his RF/9 is a crazy 5.13 compared to the 4.84 league average. Same story at shortstop, his primary position as a pro. He owns a .969 Fld%, a few points under the .974 league average, but his RF/9 is an unbelievable 4.99, compared to the league average of 4.43. Barmes will be an asset to the Astros because of his power that's bound to rebound, and his amazing defense. Manzella will back him up. Clint Barmes is a good player overall for the Astros.
Left field:
Carlos Lee was a very good player throughout the first three seasons of his 6 year, 100 million dollar contract, but in 2010, the 4th season of the contract, Lee's performance didn't measure up to the rest of his career. He hit just .246 with 29 doubles, 24 homers, 89 RBI, and just a .291 OBP in 157 games. Lee has a .287/.339/.495 (BA/OBP/SLG) line for his career, but in '10 he was just at just .246/.291/.417. He still had decent power numbers, but what happened to his BA, OBP, and SLG? It's not like he was in decline before 2010, considering he had a .305/.354/.524 line from '07 to '09. If you've been paying any attention while you've been reading this post, you should already be asking the question I'm about to ask: was Lee unlucky? What his BAbip? Lee had just a .238 BAbip, so he was certainly unlucky. If he had had his .286 career BAbip in '10, he could have hit much closer to his regular .287 BA, and obviously his OBP would have been higher accordingly. But, one problem: he had just a 16% LD% in '10, the lowest of his career. Lee has a good 20% career LD%, but in 2010, he was below 18% for the second time in three years. Maybe Lee really was in decline the past couple years, but was able to hide it with a .292 BAbip, above his career average. Lee wasn't so lucky in 2010, and accordingly, he hit just .246. While Lee's BAbip and LD% shot down, his IP% actually stayed right around his career-high of 82% in 2009, staying at 81%, a very good number.
In case you don't know Carlos Lee very well as a player, he doesn't strike out. He has never struck out 100 or times in any season of his career. Because Lee doesn't strike out at all, Lee has a great 76% career IP%, and accordingly, his BAbip has a lot to do with his batting average. (Homers count for BA, but not IP% and BAbip because they are not in play.) Let's compare Lee's career BA's and BAbip's. In 1999, he hit .293 BA with .311 BAbip, while he had a .301 BA and a .322 BAbip in 2000, a .269 BA and a .279 BAbip in 2001, a .264 BA and a .260 BAbip in 2002, a .291 BA and a .295 BAbip in 2003, a .305 BA and a .310 BAbip in 2004, a .265 BA and a .259 BAbip in 2005, a .300 BA and a .281 BAbip in 2006, a .303 BA and a .290 BAbip in 2007, a .314 BA and a .299 BAbip in 2008, a .300 BA and a .290 BAbip in 2009, and in 2010, Lee hit .246 BA with a .238 BAbip. Put those all together, and Lee has a .287 career BA and a .286 career BAbip. There has been a direct correlation between Lee's BA and BAbip. When Lee's BAbip went down to .260 and .259 respectively in 2002 and 2005, it went back up to .295 and .281 respectively and 2003 and 2006. Why couldn't Lee's BAbip rebound in 2011 just like it rebounded in '03 and '06 and get his BA back up to its normal level? Well, there are two problems: first of all, Lee was 27 and 30 respectively in 2003 and 2006 when his BAbip rebounded, but now he's 34. Secondly, you have to look at Lee's line drive percentages those three years. Lee was the unluckiest player in baseball in 2002, having a .260 BAbip despite an amazing 25% LD%, so of course his BAbip was bound to rebound. In 2005, he had an 18% LD%, so his BAbip had to rebound, but it rebounded more modestly, to .281. In 2010, I'll repeat, Lee had just a 16% LD%. A player with a 16% LD% should have around a .240 BAbip unless he's fast and gets many infield hits, or he's very lucky. Lee might rebound a bit in 2011, but not by that much. He's just isn't as good of a hitter as he used to be. I would predict something like a .260 BA, a .250 BAbip, and a .315 OBP for Lee in 2011. Good thing he's still a pretty good power hitter and he'll probably hit over 20 homers and drive in 80 or more runs for the 12th consecutive season as long as he stays healthy. Defensively, Lee was once a halfway decent defender, considering he owns a .984 career Fld% in left field that was exactly the league average, albeit with below-average range, but he's awful now, considering he posted just a .969 Fld% in left field in 2010 with a 1.55 RF/9 compared to the league average of 1.82. Lee is just a decent player overall nowadays.
Lee will be backed up by Bogusevic and Jason Michaels. Michaels is a decent player, considering his .267/.341/.415 line. He has been an outfield backup pretty much his whole career, with his lone season as a starter being in 2006 as a member of the Indians. In 2010, Michaels hit .253 with 14 doubles, 8 homers, 26 RBI, and a .310 OBP in 106 games for the Astros. Michaels has always been an above-average defender in the outfield, but that was not that case in 2010. He had a perfect 1.000 Fld%, but with bad range. For the second straight year, Michaels posted a -0.4 dWAR, and this is from a player who once posted a great 1.7 dWAR (in 2005). At age 34 going on 35 (in May), Michaels isn't the player he used to be, and he's just a decent backup at this point of his career. At least the Astros are only paying him. $900,000. Carlos Lee isn't nearly the player he used to be, but he's still a decent player for the Astros.
Center field:
'Oh, you missed it. Michael Bourn was just here.' Michael Bourn is one of the best base stealers in baseball. He has stolen 40 or more bases each of the past three seasons, including 61 in 2009 and 52 in 2010, both of which led the league.The 28 year old speedster was successful on 82% of his stealing attempts, so certainly his base stealing helped the team. In terms of overall hitting, Bourn isn't great, but he's certainly good enough considering his speed. He hit .265 in '10 with 25 doubles, 2 homers, 38 RBI, 6 triples, 84 runs, the aforementioned 52 stolen bases (12 CS), and a .341 OBP in 141 games. Among his 142 hits, 41 of them were infield hits and 10 of them were bunt hits. In 2009, Bourn was better across the board, hitting .285 with 27 doubles, 3 homers, 35 RBI, 12 triples, 97 runs, 61 stolen bases (12 CS), and a .354 OBP in 157 games. 46 of Bourn's 173 hits were infield hits, and 17 of his hits were bunt hits. Why did Bourn hit .20 better in '09 than in '10. Well, first off, although he got a higher percentage of infield hits in '10 compared to '09, 28.9% compared to 26.6%, he got a lesser percentage of bunt hits, 7% compared to 10%. Oh yeah, and there's BAbip. Bourn's BAbip was a crazy .366 in '09. When it went to .329 in '10, of course his BA went down .20 to .265. Wait a second- Bourn has been really lucky the past couple years. Was it because of a good line drive rate? Well, his LD% did decrease from 17% to 15% from '09 to '10, so his BAbip should have gone down, but how did he still have such a high BAbip? The forced answer is that he legs out so many infield and bunt hits. But, what if he doesn't get as many of those types of hits? When Bourn had a .290 BAbip in 2008, he hit just .228. Is that bound to happen in 2011 when his BAbip finally returns to neutral? In 2008, 43% of Bourn's hits were either infield hits or bunt hits. He became too dependent on those types of hits. He had just a paltry 13% LD% that year. Bourn has to be a real hitter, not just a speedster. Even when he hit .228, he still stole 41 bases, but in order to be a real top-flight base stealer, he has to get on base more. The infield hits are nice, but he has to hit more line drives. He can't be bunting and hitting those soft grounders all the time. Think about it this way: if Bourne could hit .300, he could steal maybe 70 bases with is speed. Bunting is obviously an important part of his game, but he has to be able to be an effective legitimate hitter the rest of the time. Defensively, Bourn certainly uses his speed well. He had an above-average .992 Fld% in centerfield in '10 with incredible range (2.78 RF/9 compared to the league average of 2.59). Baseball-Reference gave him a crazy 2.4 dWAR, tops in baseball, and the 103rd best mark ever for a single season. He's an incredible defender. Bourn will be backed up by Bogusevic and Michaels. Michael Bourn has his faults offensively, but overall, he uses his great speed as a huge advantage and he's a very good player.
Right field:
Hunter Pence, who will turn 28 on April 14th, has been a pretty consistent player the past 3 years, hitting 25 homers each year. He hit .282 for the second consecutive season in 2010, with 29 doubles, 25 homers, 91 RBI, 93 runs, 18 stolen bases, and a .325 OBP in 156 games. He had a .304 BAbip, so this is who Pence is as a player. He did have an above-average 11.7% HR/FB, but that was his lowest HR/FB since 2007. Pence had a good 74% IP%, but just a 15% LD%. Those numbers basically cancel out. Pence is a pretty good player offensively, and it seems like he'll always be a pretty good player offensively.Defensively, Pence is an above-average defender, but it doesn't always appear that way. He posted a 2.29 RF/9 in '10 compared to the league average of 2.10 for right fielders, but he posted just a .983 Fld%. Pence has become relatively well known for his arm in the outfield. He was 3rd among NL right fielders with 9 assists, but that was his fewest amount of assists since 2007. He led NL right fielders with 16 assists in both 2009 and 2010. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he gets back to that number in 2011. Pence will be backed up by Bogusevic and Michaels. Pence is a pretty good right fielder for the Astros.
Starting rotation:
Wandy Rodriguez was the undisputed ace of the Astros after the Roy Oswalt trade. Now, you can't be so sure. The 32 year old southpaw went just 11-12 in '10, but with a 3.60 ERA, and 178 K's compared to just 68 walks in 32 starts and 195 IP. He allowed 183 hits, an 8.4 H/9, and 16 homers, a good 0.7 HR/9. Rodriguez would only be a second or even a third starter and many other teams, but he's still a good pitcher. Rodriguez allowed a .307 BAbip and a 6.3% HR/FB, so he wasn't really lucky or unlucky. He did allow a 21% LD%, but that was canceled out by a 66% IP%. He's legitimately a good pitcher. Rodriguez is also a decent hitter. He hit .190 in '10 with 4 RBI and 9 sac bunts. Wandy Rodriguez is a good pitcher for the Astros, but he isn't good enough to be an ace for a playoff team.
Could Brett Myers be that ace? At age 30, Myers had his first very good year in the majors. He went 14-8 with a 3.14 ERA, and 180 K's compared to 66 walks (just better than Rodriguez) in 33 starts and 223.2 IP. He allowed 212 hits, 8.5 per 9, and 20 homers, 0.8 per 9. Myers finished 10th in the NL Cy Young Award voting, and he ranked 8th in the NL with a 4.6 pitching WAR, just 0.1 behind his ex-teammate Cole Hamels. But, especially considering it was his first very good year, did Myers just get really lucky in '10? His .292 BAbip was close to neutral, and his 6.6% HR/FB as well, so he really wasn't lucky. He allowed a slightly above-average 70% IP%, but he allowed just a 16% LD%. If he can stay healthy, Myers has the potential to put up numbers like his 2010 season for the next few years. Myers is a decent hitter as well, considering he hit .177 in '10 with 2 RBI and 11 sac bunts. Myers was a very good pitcher for the Astros in '10, but the question is whether he can continue that in 2011.
J.A. Happ is a step down from Myers and Rodriguez, but he's a pretty good pitcher in his own right. The 28 year old lefty went 6-4 in '10 with a 3.40 ERA, 70 K's, and 47 walks in 16 starts and 87.1 IP. He allowed 73 hits, a 7.5 H/9, and 8 homers, a 0.8 HR/9. He missed quite a bit of time with Phillies with a forearm strain before being traded to the Astros in the Roy Oswalt trade. The big question with Happ is whether he will ever be able to get back to his 2009 levels, when he went 12-4 with a 2.93 ERA and 119 K's compared to 56 walks in 23 starts, 12 RA's, and 166 IP. He allowed 149 hits that year, a 8.1 H/9, and 20 homers, a 1.1 HR/9. The very interesting thing for Happ from '09 to '10 was his H/9. It decreased to 8.1 to 7.5 despite a decrease of just .003 in BAbip and an increase in LD% from 17% to 20%. Turns out that Happ was actually unlucky in terms of hits allowed in 2009. The decrease in homers was simply because of HR/FB- his HR/FB decreased from 8.0% to 6.3% from '09 to '10. Happ also improved in K/9 from 6.5 to 7.2, ground ball rate (38.4% GB%, 0.62 GB/FB, and 0.85 GO/AO in '09 to a 39.0% GB%, 0.65 GB/FB, and a 0.90 GO/AO in '10), and IP%, which decreased from 70% to 65% from '09 to '10. Happ's real problem were his walk rate (which increased from a 3.0 BB/9 to a 4.8 BB/9), and his LD%, which I already mentioned. Happ's decline in walk rate and LD% were certainly a big reason why his ERA went up by 0.47, but considering his decline in walk rate was pretty much canceled out by his increase in K/9 and decrease in H/9, and despite his increase in LD%, his BAbip actually lowered, there had to have been another reason for his increase in ERA. The reason was how he pitched with runners in scoring position. In 2009, 83% of all the runners that reached second against Happ did not score (i.e. they were either stranded on base or tagged or forced out on the bases). Happ allowed just a .158 BA against him with runners in scoring positon. The low BA with RISP was primarily because of a .181 BAbip. In 2010, things evened out a lot more. 69% of the runners who reached second against Happ did not score. Happ allowed a still good .247 BA against him in those situations, allowing .262 BAbip. Happ got extremely lucky with RISP in 2009, and when that evened out in 2010, his ERA went up accordingly. Expect Happ to be more like the pitcher he was in '10 rather than in '09 going forward. Another proof that Happ just got very lucky in '09 was his FIP (fielding independent pitching- read it like an ERA). In 2009, he had a 4.33 FIP- he was lucky enough to have a 2.93 ERA because the Phillies played good defense behind Happ. When he played 2010 primarily with the Astros, who are worse defensively than the Phillies, he actually had a slightly better 4.32 FIP, but the Astros didn't play as well defensively behind him, and accordingly, he had a 3.40 ERA. Happ 2009 was pretty much a fluke, but Happ is still a pretty good pitcher. Don't ask Happ to do anything with the bat- he hit .000, yeah .000, in 26 AB's, although he did have a walk and 3 sac bunts. Happ is a pretty good pitcher for the Astros, but he's not as good as his 2009 stats might have indicated.
There are five candidates for the last two spots in the Astros' rotation: Bud Norris and Nelson Figueroa, who played important roles for the Astros in 2010, Rule 5 draft picks Aneury Rodriguez from the Rays and Lance Pendleton from the Yankees, and Ryan Rowland-Smith, signed as a free agent for just $725,000 this offseason.
I guess Bud Norris wasn't that bad for the Astros in '10. The 26 year old right-hander went 9-10 with a 4.92 ERA and 158 K's compared to 77 walks in 27 starts and 153.2 IP. He allowed 151 hits, an 8.8 H/9, and 18 homers, a 1.1 HR/9. His numbers were pretty decent- besides his ERA. He did have a 4.5 BB/9, but that was cancled out by a great 9.3 K/9. How did he post a 4.92 ERA? Well, first of all, he had a .318 BAbip, so he was a bit unlucky, but he still allowed less than a hit per inning. Norris allowed just a 15% LD%, so he was actually really unlucky to allow a BAbip over .300. In terms of his homers allowed, he allowed an 8.6 HR/FB, so he was also unlucky in that regard. He also allowed just a 61% IP%, so that was not his problem. Turns out that he had the same problem Happ had in '10, but to an extreme level. Just 61% of the runners who reached second against Norris did not score. Batters hit .327 against Norris with RISP, mostly because of a .383 BAbip. He also had a decent 4.17 FIP. Norris is not as bad as his 2010 stats. Maybe he's not a great pitcher, but he's certainly a decent one. Norris is also a halfway-decent hitting pitcher, considering he hit .159 in '10 with 2 RBI and 10 sac bunts. When everything evens out, Bud Norris will be much better in 2011, and he is a good candidate for the Astros' 4th starter job.
Nelson Figueroa hasn't worked exclusively or even nearly exclusively as a starter as a pro since 2000, when he started 24 minor league games and relieved in 1 while starting 3 major league games. At age 36 going on 37, Figueroa has an opportunity to be a full-time starting for the first time in his career. In '10, Figueroa went 7-4 between the Phillies and Astros (he was selected off waivers) with a 3.29 ERA, 73 K's, 34 walks, 0 holds, and 1 save in 20 RA's, 11 starts, and 93 IP. He allowed 84 hits, an 8.1 H/9, and 10 homers, a 1.0 HR/9. He had a 3.26 ERA as a starter versus a 3.34 ERA as a reliever. For his career, he has a 15-27 record and a 4.65 ERA as a starter and a 3.42 ERA, 1 hold, and 1 save as a reliever. In 2010, Figueroa had a .278 BAbip against him, a 19% LD% against him, and a 7.6 HR/FB. Those stats aren't quite evened out, but they're relatively close. Could Figueroa post at sub-4.00 ERA if given a chance to be the Astros' 5th starter? There's a possibility. Especially considering Figueroa has been mostly a reliever in his career, Figueroa had a really good offensive season for a pitcher in '10, hitting .235 with 5 sac bunts. Figueroa could be a decent pitcher for the Astros if he's given a chance to be a full-time starter for the first time in his career.
23 year old right-hander Aneury Rodriguez had probably his best overall season in the minors in '10, going 7-5 with a 3.71 ERA, 100 K's, 51 walks, 113 hits (8.2 H/9), and 10 homers allowed (0.7 HR/9) in 19 starts, 10 RA's, and 123.2 IP between Double-A Montgomery and Triple-A Durham in the Rays organization. (He had a 3.80 ERA at Triple-A.) If Rodriguez could put up a 3.71 ERA in the majors, that would certainly be good, but could he? Rodriguez has a 4.56 minor league ERA for his career. Was 2010 a fluke? He had a .281 BAbip against him in 2010, certainly a reasonable number, but he had a 73.1% strand rate (total bases against him/runs scored against him), easily the highest of his minor league career. Is the high strand rate the beginning a trend or a fluke? That has yet to be determined. If so, Rodriguez could be an effective big league pitcher. Rodriguez has never batted as a pro. Rodriguez has potential, but he's a question mark for the Astros, and he may be returned to the Rays.
Lance Pendleton, a 27 year old right-hander, had a pretty good season in the Yankees organization in '10, going 12-5 between Double-A Trenton and Triple-A Scranton-Wilkes Barre with a 3.61 ERA, 133 K's, 57 walks, 124 hits allowed (7.2 H/9), and 15 homers allowed (0.9 HR/9) in 27 starts, 2 RA's, and 154.2 IP. His BAbip was .256 in the minors in '10. Pendleton was clearly lucky, especially since his previous low for BAbip was .288. His FIP was 3.75, relatively close to his ERA. But, that 3.75 FIP was the highest of his career. Maybe if these were Pendleton's Triple-A stats, I would have more confidence in him, but 23 of his 29 appearances came at Double-A. Pendleton could potentially be a pretty good pitcher, but he's even more of a question mark than Aneury Rodriguez. He also has never batted as a pro. Pendleton is a complete question mark for the Astros, and it's unlikely that they don't return him to the Yankees.
Ryan Rowland-Smith, a 28 year old Australian southpaw, was downright awful for the Mariners in '10. There's honestly no word to properly describe his performance. He went 1-10 with a 6.75 ERA, 49 K's, 45 walks, 141 hits allowed (11.6 H/9), and 25 homers allowed (2.1 HR/9) in 20 starts, 7 RA's, and 109.1 IP. He managed a -3.6 pitching WAR. Oh my gosh. Please tell me his was really unlucky. Oh shoot- he had a .304 BAbip in '10. He wasn't unlucky in that regard. And you know what! He was actually lucky to have that .304 BAbip! He allowed a 22% LD%! (Enough with the exclamation points.) He also allowed a 73% IP%.Where Rowland-Smith was unlucky was in terms of HR/FB. He allowed an 11.1% HR/FB, significantly exceeding the MLB average and his previous career-high of 7.0% in 2008. Even so, how did he managed a 6.75 ERA? He managed a 3.62 ERA from 2007 to 2009, so what happened in 2010? All the stats I've mentioned are a factor, but one stat I didn't mention was XBH% (extra base hits/plate appearances). Rowland-Smith allowed a crazy 12.8% XBH%. From '07 to '09, he had an 8.0% XBH%, just above the MLB average of 7.8%. When you allow that many more extra base hits then the average MLB pitcher, you'll allow at least a few more runs per 9 innings, hence the terrible 6.75 ERA. His low strikeout rate (4.0 K/9), and relatively high walk rate (3.6 BB/9) are a real problem, but once his XBH% evens out, he'll at least be a decent pitcher. Nevertheless, he has no business being the Astros' 5th starter. Rowland-Smith does have a 3.68 ERA in 68 career relief appearances. Maybe he could contribute in the bullpen. Also, in the bullpen, he wouldn't have to embarrass himself at the plate (.000 BA in 4 AB's). Ryan Rowland-Smith is due for somewhat of a bounce-back in 2011, but that's more likely to happen in the Astros' bullpen rather than their rotation.
Norris should definitely be the Astros' 4th starter, and either Figueroa or Aneury Rodriguez should be the 5th starter.
Bullpen:
27 year old right-hander Wilton Lopez had a great year for the Astros in '10, going 5-2 with a 2.96 ERA, 50 K's (6.7 K/9), just 5 walks (a ridiculous 0.7 BB/9), 14 holds, and 1 save in 68 RA's and 67 IP. He allowed 66 hits, an 8.9 H/9, but just 4 homers, a 0.5 HR/9. It was Lopez's rookie season, and if he keeps pitching like he did in 2010, he'll be a sought-after reliever. But, will he be able to repeat his 2010 performance? Did he do so well in 2010 because he was lucky? Before I say anything else, I have to acknowledge that Lopez is a sinker-baller and a pretty good one too (55.7% GB%, 1.26 GB/FB, 1.64 GO/AO). He allows a lot of balls in play (77 IP%). As you might expect from a sinker-baller, he allowed a slightly above-average BAbip (.308). He also allowed just a 16% LD%. Factor that in with his extremely low walk rate, and he's a very good pitcher. But, how did he allow just a 0.5 HR/9? Well, he did have a slightly below-average 5.1% HR/FB in '10, but not that low (MLB average is 7.7%). Lopez is just a very good relief pitcher. Wilton Lopez is an effective setup man for the Astros.
Jeff Fulchino was the exact opposite of Lopez in '10. The 31 year old righty went 2-1 in '10 with a 5.51 ERA, 46 K's (8.7 K/9), 22 walks allowed (4.2 BB/9), and 5 holds in 50 RA's and 47.1 IP. He allowed 50 hits, a 10.1 H/9, and 7 homers, a bad 1.3 HR/9. He clearly allowed too many walks, hits, and homers. But, this is from a reliever who posted a 3.40 ERA and 12 holds in 2009. What happened? First of all, he allowed a .333 BAbip, quite a bit above average, while actually allowing an 18% LD% that was better than the league average. That's certainly one way in which Fulchino was unlucky. He also allowed a better-than-average 64% IP%. The second way that Fulchino was unlucky was in terms of HR/FB. Fulchino wasn't as unlucky as Rowland-Smith, but he allowed a 9.0 HR/FB. It seems like when everything evens out, Fulchino will be a pretty good pitcher again. He's not a great pitcher, but he should certainly post an ERA in the 3.00's in 2010. Good job by the Astros sticking with Fulchino. Jeff Fulchino is a pretty good middle reliever for the Astros.
Mark Melancon, acquired from the Yankees in the Lance Berkman trade, had a pretty good year in '10, going 2-0 with a 4.22 ERA, 22 K's (9.3 K/9), 8 walks (3.4 BB/9), and 8 holds in 22 RA's and 21.1 IP between the Yankees and Astros. He allowed 19 hits, 8.0 per 9, and 2 homers, 0.8 per 9. If you take out Melancon's two appearances with the Yankees in which he allowed 4 earned runs in 4 innings, Melancon had a 3.12 ERA. He happened to have two bad appearances with the Yankees before being traded, but he was sharp with the Astros. Overall with the Astros, he went 2-0 with the aforementioned 3.12 ERA, 19 K's (9.9 K/9), 8 walks (4.2 BB/9), 12 hits allowed (6.2 H/9), 1 homer allowed (0.5 HR/9), and 8 holds in 20 RA's and 17.1 IP. Melancon allowed a .298 BAbip overall, .262 with the Astros. How did Melancon manage that low BAbip with the Astros? Melancon did allow a 19% LD%, but that came along with a ground ball rate that was above the league average (46.5% GB%, 0.87 GB/FB, 1.21 GO/AO). Maybe Melancon was a bit lucky, but not by a ridiculous amount. Even if Melancon's BAbip ever does spike above .300, his very good strikeout rate (9.9 K/9 in '10, and 8.8 K/9 in the minors) should keep his ERA under 3.50 as long as he's OK otherwise. Melancon was lucky in terms of homers allowed with the Astros, allowing a 5.6% HR/9, but he doesn't allow very many fly balls anyway because of his good ground ball rate, and again, he strikes out so many batters, so his ERA shouldn't go up more than a few points when his HR/FB evens out. Melancon is juggling a few potential problems, but it appears that he'll be fine. Mark Melancon is a good reliever for the Astros.
Fernando Abad will be the Astros' lefty specialist in '10. The 25 year old southpaw went 0-1 in '10 with a 2.84 ERA, 12 K's (5.7 K/9), 5 walks (2.4 BB/9), 14 hits allowed (6.6 H/9), 3 homers allowed (1.4 HR/9), and 6 holds in 22 RA's and 19 IP in his rookie season in the big leagues (he was on an active roster for over 30 days, so despite throwing just 19 innings, he lost his rookie eligibility). Those are very good stats, but the first thing that jumps out at you when you delve deeper is of course, his BAbip. Abad had just a .196 BAbip against him in '10. Was he lucky or what? Actually, Abad wasn't all that lucky. Abad allowed just a 10% LD%, nearly half the league average. He did allow a 74% IP%, but a crazy 20% of the fly balls he allowed were on the infield (league average, 13%). Abad was unlucky in terms of homer rate among fly balls (9.4 HR/FB), but even so, he was so dominant because of his microscopic line drive rate and great popup rate. He was also heloped out by an 87.8 LOB%. Abad's 2.35 ERA in 19 Triple-A appearances prove that he wasn't a complete fluke in 2010. Maybe when everything evens out, Abad won't be quite as good a reliever as he was in 2010, but he seems like he could be a pretty good lefty specialist for the Astros for at least the next couple years. Fernando Abad is a pretty good lefty in the bullpen for the Astros.
25 year old Enerio Del Rosario is the clear frontrunner for the final spot in the Astros' bullpen. Del Rosario, acquired from the Reds in September for cash considerations, appeared in 11 games in 2010 between the Reds and Astros, going 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA, 4 K's (3.6 K/9), 4 walks (3.6 BB/9), 17 hits allowed (15.3 H/9), 0 homers allowed, and 0 holds in 11 RA's and 10 IP. He was pretty terrible (how did he manage a 4.50 ERA?), but it was such a small sample size. Let's look at his minors stats from '10. At Triple-A Louisville in the Reds organization, Rosario went 4-4 with a 3.09 ERA, 34 K's (4.8 K/9), 17 walks (2.4 BB/9), 61 hits allowed (8.6 H/9), 7 homers allowed (1.0 HR/9), and 6 saves in 50 RA's and 64 IP. He allowed a .266 BAbip in '10 in the minors, in sharp contrast to the .436 BAbip he allowed in the majors. Del Rosario is a ground ball pitcher (55.3% GB%, 1.24 GB/FB, and 2.00 GO/AO in the majors in '10), so you wouldn't expect him to post a BAbip that much under .300, but his 2010 minors stats are probably his upside. I would expect an ERA around 4.00 or 4.50 for Del Rosario in the majors in '11. Enerio Del Rosario at best is a decent pitcher, but he's a fine player as the last pitcher on the roster for the Astros.
Closer:
After splitting time with Matt Lindstrom at closer for the Astros in '10, 31 year old right-hander Brandon Lyon has the closer job all by his lonesome in 2011. Lyon had a good year in 2010, going 6-6 with a 3.12 ERA, 54 K's, 31 walks, 68 hits allowed, 2 homers allowed, 19 holds, and 20 saves in a career-high 79 RA's and 78 IP. As you probably noticed though, I ommitted Lyon's rate stats in the previous sentence. He had a 6.2 K/9, a 3.6 BB/9, a 7.8 H/9, and a 0.2 HR/9. Those strikeout and walk rates are completely unimpressive. My first guess, if I didn't know Lyon at all as a pitcher, would be that he must force a lot of ground balls. But, he had just a 39.9% GB%, 0.66 GB/FB, and 0.88 GO/AO in '10, all below-average. In reality, Lyon was so good because of a 16% IF/FB (fly balls on the infield percentage, i.e. popups on the infield and line drives that an infielder could catch and/or make a play on). That was Lyon's second consecutive season with a 16% IF/FB, but his career average is just 13% and the MLB average the past few years has been 12%. His IF/FB wouldn't be such a problem if he didn't allow so many line drives. Well, he does, or at least he did in '10. He allowed a 20% LD% in '10. His IF/FB helped him get a .276 BAbip in '10. If his IF/FB goes back to his career average and his LD% either stays where it is and reverts to his career average (an even worse 21% LD%), Lyon will be in trouble in 2011, and he could even allow a hit per inning for the first time since 2008 with the D-backs. Lyon also allowed a 72% IP%. What was Lyon's real redeeming quality? Well, after going through the other rate stats, there's just 1 left: Lyon's 0.2 HR/9, a very good rate. But, he needed to be lucky to put up that number as well, allowed just a 1.7% HR/FB. Based on everything I just said, it seems that when everything evens out for Lyon in 2011, he will post a considerably worse ERA (an ERA of at least a run higher), and would be lucky to save 30 games and last in the closer spot all year. That sounds relatively similar to Lyon's 2008 season. In 2008, Lyon went 3-5 with a 4.70 ERA, 44 K's (6.7 K/9), 13 walks (2.0 BB/9), 75 hits allowed (11.4 H/9), 7 homers allowed (1.1 HR/9), 3 holds, and 26 saves in 61 RA's and 59.1 IP. That season, he allowed a .342 BAbip, 20% LD%, 10% IF/FB, 6.3% HR/FB, a 39.8% GB%, a 0.67 GB/FB, and a .80 GO/AO. That would not be that bad of a season, but what about Lyon's 2009 with the Tigers? In 2009, Lyon went 6-5 with a 2.86 ERA, 57 K's (6.5 K/9), 31 walks (3.5 BB/9), 56 hits allowed (6.4 H/9), 7 homers allowed (0.8 HR/9), 15 holds, and 3 saves in 65 RA's and 78.2 IP. That season, he allowed a .231 BAbip, 18% LD%, 16% IF/FB, 7.4% HR/FB, a 47.2% GB%, a 0.91 GB/FB, and a 1.36 GO/AO. The big difference for Lyon was a much improved ground ball rate. I don't think Lyon is likely to have as season as bad his 2008 or as good as his 2009, so you have to expect a compromise. Let's say Lyon returns to his .296 career BAbip, gets his LD% back down to the league average of 19%, has his career 6.2% HR/FB, his career 42.1% GB%, .73 GB/FB, a 1.00 GO/AO. That would come out to something like a high 3.00's ERA, 30 saves exactly, nearly a hit per inning (maybe an 8.8 H/9) and a 1.0 HR/9 (with his K/9 and BB/9 staying right around his career averages of 5.9 and 2.9 respectively). That would certainly be a decent season for Lyon, and the Astros would be happy with that. Brandon Lyon is a decent closer for the Astros.
Overview:
The Astros are a decent offensive team, but nothing special. Defensively, the Astros have some studs (such as Clint Barmes and Michael Bourn), but also some severe holes (such as Carlos Lee, as of right now, Chris Johnson, and possibly Brett Wallace). The Astros have a pretty good top 3 in their rotation, but they don't have an established ace anymore, and their bottom two are questionable. The Astros have a league-average bullpen. Based on all these factors, it's pretty clear that the Astros are an OK team, but nothing better. They'll improve in 2011, but not anywhere enough to make a run at the postseason.
2011 record: 76-86
Prediction: 81-81, 5th in NL Central
The Astros will contend if... they get decent production at the catcher position, Brett Wallace finds himself at the big league level, Chris Johnson is better defensively while keeping up his offensive production, Carlos Lee gets back to hitting at close to .300 while at least showing effort defensively, Bourn steals 60 bases again, Myers pitches as well as he did in 2010, Wandy Rodriguez follows suit, Bud Norris and the 5th starter pitch decently, the bullpen pitches to the best of its ability, Lyon saves 30+ games.
Wednesday, March 9, 2011
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
2011 MLB Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates
Do the Pirates have any hope of making the playoffs in '10? No. Do they have any chance of finishing .500 or better? No. So, how will they do? How bad will they be? Let's find out.
Catcher:
Chris Snyder or Ryan Doumit? Take your pick. Neither? The Pirates sure wish that was a choice. Snyder recently turned 30 and owns a .229 career BA. Doumit turns 30 on April 3rd and owns a .268 BA. In 2010, Snyder hit .207 with 9 doubles, 15 homers, 48 RBI, and a .320 OBP in 105 games between the D-backs and Pirates. Doumit hit 251 with 22 doubles, 13 homers, 45 RBI, and a .331 OBP in 124 games or the Pirates. Snyder posted a .995 Fld% at catcher with a 23% CS% and 6 passed balls. Doumit posted a .990 Fld% at catcher with just a 12% CS%, and 9 passed balls and just a .929 Fld% in right field. Doumit is a better hitter, while Snyder is a much better defender. Could they platoon? Snyder is a righty hitter while Doumit is a switch hitter. Snyder has hit .220 versus righties compared to .248 versus lefties in his career. Doumit has hit .272 versus righties compared to .256 versus lefties. I guess Snyder could start against lefties and Doumit against righites. Either way, they're not that great. It's not like the Jeff Mathis-Mike Napoli platoon where Mathis was a great defender and Napoli was a great hitter. Snyder might be a great defender, but Doumit is just a decent hitter himself. The Pirates certainly have a bad situation at catcher.
First base:
34 year old Lyle Overbay, signed this offseason to a one-year, 5 million dollar contract, is lined up to be the Pirates' first baseman in 2011. Overbay had a decent year for the Blue Jays in 2010, hitting .243 with 37 doubles, 20 homers, 67 RBI, and a .329 OBP in 154 games. He posted an above-average .996 Fld% at first base. He had a .285 BAbip in '10, so he pretty much is what he is at this point of his career. Overbay will be backed up by Steven Pearce. Pearce, who will turn 28 in April, hit .276 in the majors in '10 with 2 doubles, 0 homers, 5 RBI, and a .395 OBP in 15 major league games. He made one error at first base in 86 chances, which amounted to a below-average .988 Fld%, not that it makes a huge difference. In the minors, between High-A (2 games) and Triple-A (35 games), Pearce hit .331 with 16 doubles, 3 homers, 17 RBI, 7 stolen bases, and a .428 OBP. He missed time with several injuries, including a knee injury that required surgery that ended his season in August. The Pirates have two players who can play first base besides Overbay who will definitely be on the roster, Garrett Jones and Matt Diaz, but Jones will start in right field and Diaz in the primary backup in the outfield. So, based on that, Pearce has a chance to make the roster with a good spring training. We'll have to see what happens. Overbay will be a pretty good first baseman in 2011 for the Pirates.
Second base:
25 year old Neil Walker had a great rookie season, hitting .296 with 29 doubles, 12 homers, 66 RBI, and a .349 OBP in 110 games. Walker had a .340 BAbip, which would normally be very worrying, but he had a 23% LD% (league-average 19%), and a 71% IP% (league average 69%), so he should be pretty much fine. He posted a .985 Fld% defensively at second base (league average .984), albeit with below-average range. Walker was good enough to finish 5th in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. Walker's backup will be 26 year old Josh Rodriguez. Rodriguez, the first overall pick in the 2010 Rule 5 draft, spent all of 2010 in the minors, hitting .297 between Double-A (21 games) and Triple-A (86 games) with 30 doubles, 13 homers, 57 RBI, 6 stolen bases, and a .378 OBP. Defensively, he played second base, third base, shortstop, centerfield, right field, and left field, so he'll play all over the place as a utility player for the Pirates. He's a below-average fielder across the board, but he's best at second base (.976 career Fld%). He's a pretty good hitter, so as long as he survives defensively, he'll be a good backup. Walker is a good second baseman for the Pirates.
Third base:
Pedro Alvarez, 24, also had a good rookie season for the Pirates, hitting .256 with 21 doubles, 16 homers, 64 RBI, and a .326 OBPin 95 games. Between the minors and majors he hit 29 homers and drove in 117 runs. It all sounds good, right? Well, there are a couple of worrying factors. Alvarez needed a .341 BAbip to his .256. He had a crazy 14.8 HR/FB. And, he posted just a 55 IP% and a 14% LD% while striking out 30.8% of the time (league average 18.5%). Alvarez can obviously improve as a hitter, but if his BAbip and HR/FB return to neutral while his IP% and LD% remain the same, Alvarez could conceivably hit .200 with just 15 homers for a full season. But, considering that Alvarez hit 40 homers in 192 minor league games, you have to think that either a) he just hits the ball in a way that more of his fly balls go for home runs and/or b) he's a good enough hitter to adjust. He posted just a .938 Fld% defensively, but he showed outstanding range. He has tremendous talent. He'll be backed up by Rodriguez. Alvarez is a good talent, and hopefully he'll make strides in 2011.
Shortstop:
Ronny Cedeno, who recently turned 28, had a pretty terrible year in 2010, hitting .256 with 29 doubles, 8 homers, 38 RBI, 12 stolen bases, and just a .293 OBP in 139 games. He had a .315 BAbip, so it's not like he was unlucky, but he had just a 13% LD%. He walked just 4.6% of his plate appearances, compared to the league average of 8.5%. Cedeno is essentially a singles hitter who doesn't walk. Defensively, he was slightly below-average with a .969 Fld%, but he showed above-average range. He's a decent player at best. He'll be backed up by Rodriguez. Cedeno is nothing more than a halfway decent player for the Pirates.
Left field:
Tabata was another solid rookie for the Pirates. The 22 year old hit .299 with 21 doubles, 4 homers, 35 RBI, 19 stolen bases, and a .346 OBP in 102 games. He did have a .339 BAbip and a 17% LD%, but he had a great 78% IP% and a 3.3 HR/FB. When everything evens out, he'll still prove to be a good hitter. He was outstanding defensively in left field posting a .995 Fld% with great range and 5 outfield assists. He finished 8th in the Rookie of the Year voting. Tabata is a good player. He'll be backed up by Matt Diaz , John Bowker, and Rodriguez. Matt Diaz hit .250 for the Braves in '10 with 17 doubles, 7 homers, 31 RBI, and a .302 OBP in 84 games. He isn't very good defensively, considering he posted a below-average .979 Fld% and below-average range in left field in '10 (he has a .981 career Fld% in right field and 1.000 in 2 games in centerfield). He's a decent backup. Bowker hit .219 in '10 with 8 doubles, 5 homers, 21 RBI, and a .281 OBP in 67 games between the Giants and Pirates. He posted a .985 Fld% in the outfield. He's good enough to be a 5th outfielder. Jose Tabata is another budding young star for the Pirates.
Centerfield:
24 year old star Andrew McCutchen had a great season for the Pirates, hitting .286 with 35 doubles, 16 homers, 56 RBI, 94 runs, 33 stolen bases, and a .365 OBP in 154 games. He had a .311 BAbip, so he wasn't overly lucky. He's for real. He had a league-average .987 Fld%, but he showed great range. He'll be backed up by Diaz Bowker, and Rodriguez, McCutchen is a really great player and the only real established star on the Pirates.
Right field:
29 year old Garrett Jones proved to be a good RBI guy for the Pirates in '10, hitting .247 with 34 doubles, 21 homers, 86 RBI, 7 stolen bases, and a .306 OBP in 158 games. He did this all despite a .274 BAbip, and he still had a decent 8.1 BB% despite his .306 OBP, so as his BAbip rebounds, his OBP will in addition to his BA. He's a solid player. He posted a bad .971 Fld% in right field, but he showed great range, so maybe that will improve in 2011. Garrett Jones is a good player for the Pirates.
Starting rotation:
26 year old James McDonald was solid in 11 starts for the Pirates (he had been 0-1 with an 8.22 ERA in 4 appearances for the Dodgers), going 4-5 with a 3.52 ERA, and 61 K's compared to 24 walks in 64 IP. He allowed 59 hits, 8.3 per 9, and 3 homers, a great ratio of 0.4 per 9. McDonald was particularly great in September, going 2-2 with a 2.31 ERA in 6 starts. McDonald also did all this while allowing a .320 BAbip, although he did allow just a 2.9% HR/FB. When everything evens out, McDonald will probably do slightly better, but a few more of his earned runs will come from homers. McDonald is an awful hitter, considering he hit just .050 in '10 with no RBI and 1 sac bunt. McDonald is a pretty good pitcher, and he is considered to be the de facto ace of the Pirates.
Arbitration winner Ross Ohlendorf went through a bizarre season in 2010. The 28 year old right-hander went just 1-11, but with a 4.07 ERA, 79 K's, and 44 walks in 21 starts and 108.1 IP. He allowed 106 hits, an 8.8 H/9, and 12 homers, a 1.2 HR/9. He was a decent pitcher. Ohlendorf missed time with a shoulder injury that ended his season. It's not like he was lucky or unlucky- he had a .289 BAbip, a 6.3% HR/FB, and a 19% LD%. He's not a good pitcher, but he might be good enough to place second among Pirates starting pitchers in ERA for years to come. Ohlendorf certainly wasn't decent with the bat, hitting .077 with no RBI and 2 sac bunts. Ohlendorf is just a decent pitcher for the Pirates.
Lefty Paul Maholm, who will turn 29 in June, has been a Pirate his whole career. He's had his good moments (10 wins in 2007, 9-9 record, 3.71 ERA, 206.1 IP in '08), and his bad moments, such as his 2010 season. He went 9-15 with a 5.10 ERA, and 102 K's compared to 62 walks in 32 starts and 185.1 IP. His main problem was hits allowed. He allowed 15 homers, a fine ratio of 0.7 per 9, but 228 hits, which amounts to an 11.1 H/9. But, that was because of a .332 BAbip despite an above-average ground ball rate (1.04 GB/FB, 1.56 GO/AO) and a league-average 19% LD%. It was the same story for Maholm in 2009, when he posted a 4.44 ERA. In his outstanding 2008, Maholm had a .294 BAbip. He even had an 8.0% HR/FB that season (compared to 5.2% in '09 and 5.1% in '10), although his 17% LD% was better than his 19% LD% in both '09 and '10. Could Maholm possibly return to his 3.71 ERA that year? I would seriously doubt it, considering Walker and Alvarez aren't good defensively at key defensive positions, but hey, you never know. Maholm's ERA will certainly rebound back into the mid-4.00's in 2011 if not better. Accordingly, Bill James projects a 4.52 ERA for him. He's certainly a decent pitcher. With the bat, Maholm is pretty bad, 'boasting' a .089 BA, no RBI, and 7 sac bunts. Maholm is a decent pitcher for the Pirates.
Hoping to shore up their pitching staff, the Pirates signed a pitcher from the Padres to a two-year, 6 million dollar contract. Unfortunately, they signed Kevin Correia. You may be surprised at Correia's stats while pitching half of his games at Petco Park. He went 10-10 with a terrible 5.40 ERA that was worse than AJ Burnett, 115 K's, and 64 walks in 26 starts, 2 RA's, and 145 IP. He allowed 152 hits, a 9.4 H/9, and 20 homers, a 1.2 HR/9. He was downright awful. Neutralized, he managed a 6.53 ERA. Oh my gosh. Were the Pirates paying any attention? In 2010, he had a .306 BAbip, compared to .298 in 2009, when he had a 3.91 ERA (4.62 neutralized). His LD% remained exactly the same at 21%. The only major difference was in HR/FB, 5.6% in '09 compared to 9.5% in '10. Still, that shouldn't raise his ERA by 1.49! There's absolutely no reason to believe Correia will rebound in 2011. At least he's a decent hitting pitcher, considering he hit .136 in '10 with 5 RBI and 6 sac bunts. Correia was a terrible signing for the Pirates, and they'll be lucky if he posts a 5.00 ERA in '11.
There are two candidates for the final spot in the Pirates' rotation: Charlie Morton and Scott Olsen.
Morton, a 27 year old right-hander, seems to be exactly what you'd expect from a Pirates pitcher. Brace yourself for his 2010 stats: 2-12 record, 7.57 ERA, 59 K's, 26 walks, 112 hits allowed (12.7 H/9), and 15 homers allowed (1.7 HR/9) in 17 starts and 79.2 IP (he pitched to a 3.82 ERA in 14 Triple-A starts and 80 IP). Oh my gosh. He managed a -2.4 WAR for the Pirates. That takes some skill (or lack thereof). He even had a total -2.7 WAR after a -0.3 offensive WAR (.038 BA, 0 RBI, 1 sac bunt). But, you know what's funny? Morton had a decent 4.55 ERA in 18 starts in 2009. What the heck happened? Actually, exactly what you'd expect: an increase in BAbip, HR/FB, and LD%. In 2009, Morton had a .316 BAbip against him. After looking at that, you would think that maybe his BAbip would return to neutral and he'd post maybe a 4.35 ERA in '10 with average luck. Of course, that didn't happen. Instead, his BAbip hit rock-bottom, ballooning to .361. That explains his 12.7 H/9 in '10 compared to 9.5 in '09. And why did that happen? Because of an increase in LD%. Morton had a good 17% LD% in 2009, but a terrible 22% LD% in '10. You have to hope that Morton will be able to fix that in 2011 (presumably by keeping the ball away from the middle of the plate). Of course though, that wasn't his only problem. He allowed a 10.7 HR/FB (further enhancing my hypothesis that he allowed too many hittable pitches). There's a good amount of luck involved with HR/FB (there's a 1 inch [or less] difference on the bat between a homer and a fly ball to the track), but I feel like the increase in LD% coupled with his increase in HR/FB has to be because of too many hittable pitches allowed. Looking at the Pitch F/X data at http://brooksbaseball.net, it's no hypothesis, I'm right (I did only look at a sample of games). He did improve in September, leading to a 4.09 ERA, 0.5 HR/9, and a 21% LD% compared to a 10.03 ERA, a 2.5 HR/9, and a 23 LD% the rest of the season (his BAbip decreased to .337 from .376 ). Morton was straightened out after coming back to the minors (although his first start back in late August was a complete disaster, considering he allowed 7 ER in 3.1 IP). Maybe Morton won't post a low-4.00's ERA in 2011, but you have to be encouraged by his September stats. If the Pirates have the guts to look past his 7.57 ERA in '10, Morton should certainly be considered for the 5th starter job.
It's not as though Olsen's 2010 stats blew Morton out of the water. Olsen was certainly better, but better is a comparative word, and it's certainly not hard to be better than a 7.57 ERA. Even a pitcher with a 7.56 ERA would be better than Morton. Anyway, Olsen, a lefty, had a pretty bad year for the Nats in '10, going 4-8 with a 5.56 ERA, 53 K's, and 27 walks in 15 starts, 2 RA's, and 81 IP. He allowed 93 hits, a 10.3 H/9, and 10 homers, a 1.1 HR/9. Olsen's last decent season was 2008, when he went 8-11 with 4.20 ERA in 33 starts for the Marlins. He went 2-4 with a 6.03 ERA in 11 starts for the Nats in 2009. How good is Olsen, really? Olsen had a .317 BAbip is '10, compared to a .348 in 2009 and .261 in 2008. His LD% over that time frame were 20% in 2010, 23% in 2009 and 19% in 2008. What those stats tell us is that Olsen didn't allow a 10.4 H/9 because of a bad line drive rate, so he was a bit unlucky, but even with a 9.0 H/9, how much better would his ERA have been? 5.00? He also had a below-average 7.1 HR/FB in '10, so that's not what made him so bad in 2010! Olsen isn't a good pitcher. He needed a .261 BAbip to post a 4.20 ERA in '10, and add .40 to any pitcher's BAbip, and his ERA will certainly go up at least half a run. If his BAbip and HR/FB are neutral in 2010, I would expect something like a 4.70 ERA if he wins the 5th starter job. Olsen doesn't impress with the bat either, considering he hit just .083 in '10 with no RBI and 4 sac bunts. At least he's only signed for one year, and for just $550,000 (there's a 4 million dollar team option in 2012). Olsen might be able to be a decent 5th starter for the Pirates if given the chance.
We'll have to see how they perform in Spring Training, but I feel like Morton has the edge. He has the potential to be an effective starter with average luck while Olsen, with average luck, would be worse than him. But, Morton still has options left, and Olsen is signed to a major league contract. Morton will need an exceptional spring training to take the job from Olsen to begin the year. Olsen has made just 6 professional relief appearances, so it's unclear whether he could adapt to being a long reliever. I feel like somehow, some way, Charlie Morton will end up as the Pirates' 5th starter, if not out of spring training then at some point during the year. He's just a better pitcher. It's unfortunate that due to bad luck he's never gotten to prove that.
Bullpen:
I usually make the position of closer its own category, but although Joel Hanrahan has been named the closer over Evan Meek to begin the year, it's unclear whether he will retain that role. There's certainly more uncertainty for the Pirates at closer than for your average team.
Withholding his ERA for a second, Hanrahan, a 29 year old right-hander, seemed to have a great year based on several numbers. He went 4-1 with 100 K's, an impressive out of the bullpen and which amounted to a 12.9 K/9, 26 walks, which came out to a 3.4 BB/9, a 3.85 K/BB (strikeout to walk) ratio, 58 hits allowed, a 7.5 H/9, and 6 homers, a decent 0.8 HR/9, 18 holds, and 6 saves in 72 RA's and 69.2 IP. He sounds like an awfully good pitcher. What would you think his ERA was? At least under 3.00, right? In reality, Hanrahan had a 3.62 ERA. I guess you have to point to his homer rate as the reason he posted his 3.62 ERA, but otherwise, he was downright incredible. He allowed a 7.5 H/9 despite a .329 BAbip. The .329 BAbip was just Hanrahan being unlucky because he had an 18% LD%. Hanrahan allowed just a 59% IP%, 10% lower than the MLB average of 69%, which is what you would think made him so good. He allowed his 0.8 HR/9 because of a 7.5% HR/FB that was right around the league average of 7.7%. He still sounds like a pitcher who should have posted an ERA under 3.00 to me. Maybe if his BAbip goes down to .300, that would be enough to get him to a high 2.00's ERA. Hanrahan maybe gives up a few too many homers to be a top-flight closer, but he seems like he would do a decent job in the role, at least getting 20 saves.
Meek, who will turn 28 in May, would seem like a great closer candidate if I withhold a different stat for a moment. Meek went 5-4 with a 2.14 ERA, 31 walks, a 3.5 BB/9, 53 hits allowed, which comes out to a great 6.0 H/9, 5 homers, which is good for a 0.6 HR/9, 15 holds, and 4 saves in 70 RA's and 80 IP. Of course, I omitted strikeouts. Meek's 70 K's amounted to a 7.9 K/9, which is fine, but not great at all. How was he so effective without striking so many guys out? The reason was that he had just a .226 BAbip against him in '10. But, it certainly wasn't purely out of luck. Meek allowed just a 15% LD%, and he allowed quite a few ground balls, posting a 1.29 GB/FB ratio and a 1.93 GO/AO ratio. Meek just doesn't allow many hard-hit balls. Going along with that, Meek allowed a slightly-below average 6.5% HR/FB, close enough to neutral to make me think that Meek just didn't allow many hard-hit balls to the outfield, either. Meek gets around the relatively low strikeout rate by not allowing solid contact. He's certainly a good pitcher.
Hanrahan is more of a strikeout pitcher than Meek, but Meek allows very few hard-hit balls, similar to most closers. Hanrahan seems like he could be a decent closer, but Meek could be a very good closer, albeit unorthodox because of his somewhat low strikeout rate. Both of them could be effective closers, but considering that Meek allows quite a less homers than Hanrahan and is a year younger than him, he'll be the better closer long term. I would expect Hanrahan to have a decent start as the Pirates' closer in '11, but after several blown saves because of long home runs, Meek takes over and pitches pretty well in the role. The loser for the job should be an effective setup man.
28 year old right-hander Chris Resop's 2010 stats weren't anything special. He went 0-0 with a 3.86 ERA, 26 K's, 13 walks, and 5 holds in 23 RA's and 21 IP between the Braves and Pirates. But, he allowed 15 hits for a great 6.0 H/9, and just 1 homer for a 0.4 HR/9. He had no noticable flaw! It's not like Hanrahan where he had somewhat of a problem in terms of homers. What's going on here? Well, notice I said that he spent 2010 between the Braves and Pirates. He appeared in 1 RA for the Braves and 22 for the Pirates. He had a great 1.89 ERA for the Pirates. Clearly he had a great year for the Pirates, but how did he manage an overall ERA nearly 2.00 higher than his ERA with the Pirates if he made just one relief appearance for the Braves? Get ready for Resop's stats on the Braves: in 1 two-inning relief appearance, he allowed 5 hits, 5 runs, 5 earned runs, and 3 walks while striking out 2 batters. That comes out to a scary 22.50 ERA. Again, take out that one appearance and he has a 1.89 ERA. Just looking at these stats, you have to say that Resop is a very good reliever who just had the worst night of his life in a relief appearance for the Braves. Is that really the case? During that one appearance for the Braves, Resop was the most unlucky pitcher in baseball, allowing an unbelievable .556 BAbip, not too far off from being double the MLB average of .300. Wow. But, after that, he allowed just a .220 BAbip. His luck completely flipped. There's a good stat and a bad stat for Resop's time on the Pirates: he allowed just a 53% IP%, which is outstanding, but he allowed a 21% LD%. In terms of BAbip, Resop was certainly very lucky to allow a .220 BAbip on the Pirates despite a 21% LD%. Resop's BAbip should come back to earth in 2011, but if he keeps up that 53% IP% he should be fine. I doubt Resop will put up a sub-2.00 ERA for the Pirates in 2011, but he has a could chance of putting up a sub-3.00 ERA.
So far, I've mentioned three relievers for the Pirates, and all of them are pretty good. Will Chris Leroux continue the trend? Well, Leroux, who will turn 27 in April, didn't exactly put up the kind of numbers you want to see- in 23 RA's and 22.2 IP, he went 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA, 22 K's, 14 walks, 28 hits allowed (11.1 H/9), 1 homer allowed (0.4 HR/9), and 3 holds. He certainly didn't put up good stats. But, stats can certainly be deceiving (see Charlie Morton). Leroux allowed a crazy .397 BAbip. That's just unlucky for him, right? He'll be a decent pitcher when his BAbip returns to neutral in 2011, right? Leroux was certainly unlucky, but he did allow a 23% LD%. You can't like that. Compounding the problem is that Leroux allowed just a 3.3 HR/FB. At least he allowed a pretty good 65 IP%, but you still can't like Leroux very much. Unless he really improves his LD%, you have to expect at least a 4.50 ERA from Leroux (unless of course, he gets really lucky). Leroux isn't a good reliever, and it's not a good thing for the Pirates that he's going to be an important part of their bullpen, considering who I'm going to mention next.
Before I mentioned Leroux, maybe you could have argued that the Pirates are not that bad of a team. That have a decent offense, a defense that has shown great range and could improve mightily in 2011, a decent rotation, and a couple of pretty good relievers at the back end of the bullpen. But then, there was Leroux, and also there's Daniel McCutchen, Jeff Karstens, and Jose Ascanio, two of which will make the Pirates out of spring training. Even if you say that middle relievers are replaceable, that doesn't matter unless you can replace them, which the Pirates can't do right now.
McCutchen, a 28 year old right-hander, is exactly what you'd expect from a Pirates reliever. In 2010, he appeared in 28 games, 9 of which were starts, going 2-5 with a 6.12 ERA, 38 K's (just a 5.1 K/9), 28 walks (3.7 BB/9), 83 hits allowed (11.0 H/9), and 13 homers allowed (1.7 HR/9) in 67.2 IP. (He didn't record any holds. He had a 6.49 ERA as a starter and a 5.47 ERA as a reliever. He was just plain awful. You have to wonder how the heck he managed an 11.0 H/9 with a .303 BAbip and a 15% LD%. At least his 1.7 HR/9 was because of a 10.0 HR/FB. Still, come on! McCutchen is not a good pitcher at all. I'll be shocked if he posts a sub-5.00 ERA in '11.
I can't say Karstens was that bad in 2010. THe 28 year old righty went 3-10 with a 4.92 ERA, 72 K's, 27 walks, 146 hits allowed (10.7 H/9), and 21 homers allowed (1.5 HR/9) in 26 starts, 7 RA's and 122.2 IP. He actually was halfway decent as a starter, posting a 4.78 ERA, but allowing a 5.87 ERA as a reliever. Karsten is a 5th starter-type pitcher, but he has no place in the Pirates' rotation right now. Karstens 2011 stats as a starter are pretty much what he is with neutral luck. He allowed a .309 BAbip, so he was a little bit unlucky, but not too much at all. He allowed a good 17% LD%, but a 77% IP%. He did allow a 10.1 HR/FB, so at neutral he would probably post closer to a 1.0 HR/9. With a .300 BAbip and a 7.7 HR/9, maybe Karstens posts a 4.50 ERA. That's the best he could do. But, that would be as a starter. In his career, he has a 4.92 ERA as a starter, but a 5.63 ERA in relief. Karstens hasn't gotten comfortable pitching out of the bullpen, even after 39 career RA's. Unless he finally adjusts to the bullpen, expect Karstens to post an ERA in the 5.00's in '11, unless he's given a chance to start.
Ascanio, who will turn 26 in May, missed all of '10 with a torn labrum. He appeared in just 2 minor league relief appearances, posting a 0.00 ERA and 7 K's in 2 RA's and 3 IP. Ascanio last appeared in the majors in 2009, going 0-2 with a 4.00 ERA, 20 K's, 9 walks, and 1 hold in 16 RA's and 18 IP between the Cubs and Pirates. He allowed 22 hits, an 11.0 H/9, and 1 homer, a 0.5 HR/9. Those are pretty good stats. But, when you consider he had a crazy .412 BAbip, you better be amazed. He even had a great 15% LD% and he still had that .412 BAbip. Despite that, he still put up a 4.00 ERA. You have to impressed. He did allow a 3.8% HR/FB, so he was lucky in that regard, but he also allowed a good 59% IP%. If those were his 2010 numbers, I would expect big things from him in 2011. But, he was a pretty good reliever then, not necessarily now. Could he be a good reliever for the Pirates in 2011? We'll have to see if he's healthy in spring training. If healthy, Ascanio could be an effective reliever for the Pirates in 2011.
Overview:
Simply put, the Pirates are not a good team. But, they're not as bad as they were in 2010. Their young players are developing, and maybe in a couple years, when their top pitching prospects such as Jameson Taillon arrive in the majors, they will contend. Not in 2010, though. They're not that bad of an offensive team, but they're below-average defensively, their rotation is decent at best, their bullpen is filled with holes after Meek, Hanrahan, and Resop, and even among those three, they don't have a proven closer. They'll improve in 2011, but it's hard not to improve on their 105-loss 2010.
2010 record: 57-105
Prediction: 63-99, 6th in NL Central
The Pirates will contend if... most of the following things happen: either Snyder or Doumit steps up at catcher, Overbay puts up decent numbers, Walker, Alvarez, and Tabata continue to improve, Cedeno survives offensively, Jones drives in 100 runs, McCutchen goes 20-30 (20 homers, 30 stolen bases), McDonald puts up a 3.50 ERA over a full season, Maholm and Ohlendorf put up low-4.00's ERA, Correia posts a mid-4.00's ERA, the 5th starter (Morton or Olsen) puts up a sub-5.00 ERA, Hanrahan or Meek steps up as the closer, and the bullpen as a whole posts a sub-4.00 ERA.
Catcher:
Chris Snyder or Ryan Doumit? Take your pick. Neither? The Pirates sure wish that was a choice. Snyder recently turned 30 and owns a .229 career BA. Doumit turns 30 on April 3rd and owns a .268 BA. In 2010, Snyder hit .207 with 9 doubles, 15 homers, 48 RBI, and a .320 OBP in 105 games between the D-backs and Pirates. Doumit hit 251 with 22 doubles, 13 homers, 45 RBI, and a .331 OBP in 124 games or the Pirates. Snyder posted a .995 Fld% at catcher with a 23% CS% and 6 passed balls. Doumit posted a .990 Fld% at catcher with just a 12% CS%, and 9 passed balls and just a .929 Fld% in right field. Doumit is a better hitter, while Snyder is a much better defender. Could they platoon? Snyder is a righty hitter while Doumit is a switch hitter. Snyder has hit .220 versus righties compared to .248 versus lefties in his career. Doumit has hit .272 versus righties compared to .256 versus lefties. I guess Snyder could start against lefties and Doumit against righites. Either way, they're not that great. It's not like the Jeff Mathis-Mike Napoli platoon where Mathis was a great defender and Napoli was a great hitter. Snyder might be a great defender, but Doumit is just a decent hitter himself. The Pirates certainly have a bad situation at catcher.
First base:
34 year old Lyle Overbay, signed this offseason to a one-year, 5 million dollar contract, is lined up to be the Pirates' first baseman in 2011. Overbay had a decent year for the Blue Jays in 2010, hitting .243 with 37 doubles, 20 homers, 67 RBI, and a .329 OBP in 154 games. He posted an above-average .996 Fld% at first base. He had a .285 BAbip in '10, so he pretty much is what he is at this point of his career. Overbay will be backed up by Steven Pearce. Pearce, who will turn 28 in April, hit .276 in the majors in '10 with 2 doubles, 0 homers, 5 RBI, and a .395 OBP in 15 major league games. He made one error at first base in 86 chances, which amounted to a below-average .988 Fld%, not that it makes a huge difference. In the minors, between High-A (2 games) and Triple-A (35 games), Pearce hit .331 with 16 doubles, 3 homers, 17 RBI, 7 stolen bases, and a .428 OBP. He missed time with several injuries, including a knee injury that required surgery that ended his season in August. The Pirates have two players who can play first base besides Overbay who will definitely be on the roster, Garrett Jones and Matt Diaz, but Jones will start in right field and Diaz in the primary backup in the outfield. So, based on that, Pearce has a chance to make the roster with a good spring training. We'll have to see what happens. Overbay will be a pretty good first baseman in 2011 for the Pirates.
Second base:
25 year old Neil Walker had a great rookie season, hitting .296 with 29 doubles, 12 homers, 66 RBI, and a .349 OBP in 110 games. Walker had a .340 BAbip, which would normally be very worrying, but he had a 23% LD% (league-average 19%), and a 71% IP% (league average 69%), so he should be pretty much fine. He posted a .985 Fld% defensively at second base (league average .984), albeit with below-average range. Walker was good enough to finish 5th in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. Walker's backup will be 26 year old Josh Rodriguez. Rodriguez, the first overall pick in the 2010 Rule 5 draft, spent all of 2010 in the minors, hitting .297 between Double-A (21 games) and Triple-A (86 games) with 30 doubles, 13 homers, 57 RBI, 6 stolen bases, and a .378 OBP. Defensively, he played second base, third base, shortstop, centerfield, right field, and left field, so he'll play all over the place as a utility player for the Pirates. He's a below-average fielder across the board, but he's best at second base (.976 career Fld%). He's a pretty good hitter, so as long as he survives defensively, he'll be a good backup. Walker is a good second baseman for the Pirates.
Third base:
Pedro Alvarez, 24, also had a good rookie season for the Pirates, hitting .256 with 21 doubles, 16 homers, 64 RBI, and a .326 OBPin 95 games. Between the minors and majors he hit 29 homers and drove in 117 runs. It all sounds good, right? Well, there are a couple of worrying factors. Alvarez needed a .341 BAbip to his .256. He had a crazy 14.8 HR/FB. And, he posted just a 55 IP% and a 14% LD% while striking out 30.8% of the time (league average 18.5%). Alvarez can obviously improve as a hitter, but if his BAbip and HR/FB return to neutral while his IP% and LD% remain the same, Alvarez could conceivably hit .200 with just 15 homers for a full season. But, considering that Alvarez hit 40 homers in 192 minor league games, you have to think that either a) he just hits the ball in a way that more of his fly balls go for home runs and/or b) he's a good enough hitter to adjust. He posted just a .938 Fld% defensively, but he showed outstanding range. He has tremendous talent. He'll be backed up by Rodriguez. Alvarez is a good talent, and hopefully he'll make strides in 2011.
Shortstop:
Ronny Cedeno, who recently turned 28, had a pretty terrible year in 2010, hitting .256 with 29 doubles, 8 homers, 38 RBI, 12 stolen bases, and just a .293 OBP in 139 games. He had a .315 BAbip, so it's not like he was unlucky, but he had just a 13% LD%. He walked just 4.6% of his plate appearances, compared to the league average of 8.5%. Cedeno is essentially a singles hitter who doesn't walk. Defensively, he was slightly below-average with a .969 Fld%, but he showed above-average range. He's a decent player at best. He'll be backed up by Rodriguez. Cedeno is nothing more than a halfway decent player for the Pirates.
Left field:
Tabata was another solid rookie for the Pirates. The 22 year old hit .299 with 21 doubles, 4 homers, 35 RBI, 19 stolen bases, and a .346 OBP in 102 games. He did have a .339 BAbip and a 17% LD%, but he had a great 78% IP% and a 3.3 HR/FB. When everything evens out, he'll still prove to be a good hitter. He was outstanding defensively in left field posting a .995 Fld% with great range and 5 outfield assists. He finished 8th in the Rookie of the Year voting. Tabata is a good player. He'll be backed up by Matt Diaz , John Bowker, and Rodriguez. Matt Diaz hit .250 for the Braves in '10 with 17 doubles, 7 homers, 31 RBI, and a .302 OBP in 84 games. He isn't very good defensively, considering he posted a below-average .979 Fld% and below-average range in left field in '10 (he has a .981 career Fld% in right field and 1.000 in 2 games in centerfield). He's a decent backup. Bowker hit .219 in '10 with 8 doubles, 5 homers, 21 RBI, and a .281 OBP in 67 games between the Giants and Pirates. He posted a .985 Fld% in the outfield. He's good enough to be a 5th outfielder. Jose Tabata is another budding young star for the Pirates.
Centerfield:
24 year old star Andrew McCutchen had a great season for the Pirates, hitting .286 with 35 doubles, 16 homers, 56 RBI, 94 runs, 33 stolen bases, and a .365 OBP in 154 games. He had a .311 BAbip, so he wasn't overly lucky. He's for real. He had a league-average .987 Fld%, but he showed great range. He'll be backed up by Diaz Bowker, and Rodriguez, McCutchen is a really great player and the only real established star on the Pirates.
Right field:
29 year old Garrett Jones proved to be a good RBI guy for the Pirates in '10, hitting .247 with 34 doubles, 21 homers, 86 RBI, 7 stolen bases, and a .306 OBP in 158 games. He did this all despite a .274 BAbip, and he still had a decent 8.1 BB% despite his .306 OBP, so as his BAbip rebounds, his OBP will in addition to his BA. He's a solid player. He posted a bad .971 Fld% in right field, but he showed great range, so maybe that will improve in 2011. Garrett Jones is a good player for the Pirates.
Starting rotation:
26 year old James McDonald was solid in 11 starts for the Pirates (he had been 0-1 with an 8.22 ERA in 4 appearances for the Dodgers), going 4-5 with a 3.52 ERA, and 61 K's compared to 24 walks in 64 IP. He allowed 59 hits, 8.3 per 9, and 3 homers, a great ratio of 0.4 per 9. McDonald was particularly great in September, going 2-2 with a 2.31 ERA in 6 starts. McDonald also did all this while allowing a .320 BAbip, although he did allow just a 2.9% HR/FB. When everything evens out, McDonald will probably do slightly better, but a few more of his earned runs will come from homers. McDonald is an awful hitter, considering he hit just .050 in '10 with no RBI and 1 sac bunt. McDonald is a pretty good pitcher, and he is considered to be the de facto ace of the Pirates.
Arbitration winner Ross Ohlendorf went through a bizarre season in 2010. The 28 year old right-hander went just 1-11, but with a 4.07 ERA, 79 K's, and 44 walks in 21 starts and 108.1 IP. He allowed 106 hits, an 8.8 H/9, and 12 homers, a 1.2 HR/9. He was a decent pitcher. Ohlendorf missed time with a shoulder injury that ended his season. It's not like he was lucky or unlucky- he had a .289 BAbip, a 6.3% HR/FB, and a 19% LD%. He's not a good pitcher, but he might be good enough to place second among Pirates starting pitchers in ERA for years to come. Ohlendorf certainly wasn't decent with the bat, hitting .077 with no RBI and 2 sac bunts. Ohlendorf is just a decent pitcher for the Pirates.
Lefty Paul Maholm, who will turn 29 in June, has been a Pirate his whole career. He's had his good moments (10 wins in 2007, 9-9 record, 3.71 ERA, 206.1 IP in '08), and his bad moments, such as his 2010 season. He went 9-15 with a 5.10 ERA, and 102 K's compared to 62 walks in 32 starts and 185.1 IP. His main problem was hits allowed. He allowed 15 homers, a fine ratio of 0.7 per 9, but 228 hits, which amounts to an 11.1 H/9. But, that was because of a .332 BAbip despite an above-average ground ball rate (1.04 GB/FB, 1.56 GO/AO) and a league-average 19% LD%. It was the same story for Maholm in 2009, when he posted a 4.44 ERA. In his outstanding 2008, Maholm had a .294 BAbip. He even had an 8.0% HR/FB that season (compared to 5.2% in '09 and 5.1% in '10), although his 17% LD% was better than his 19% LD% in both '09 and '10. Could Maholm possibly return to his 3.71 ERA that year? I would seriously doubt it, considering Walker and Alvarez aren't good defensively at key defensive positions, but hey, you never know. Maholm's ERA will certainly rebound back into the mid-4.00's in 2011 if not better. Accordingly, Bill James projects a 4.52 ERA for him. He's certainly a decent pitcher. With the bat, Maholm is pretty bad, 'boasting' a .089 BA, no RBI, and 7 sac bunts. Maholm is a decent pitcher for the Pirates.
Hoping to shore up their pitching staff, the Pirates signed a pitcher from the Padres to a two-year, 6 million dollar contract. Unfortunately, they signed Kevin Correia. You may be surprised at Correia's stats while pitching half of his games at Petco Park. He went 10-10 with a terrible 5.40 ERA that was worse than AJ Burnett, 115 K's, and 64 walks in 26 starts, 2 RA's, and 145 IP. He allowed 152 hits, a 9.4 H/9, and 20 homers, a 1.2 HR/9. He was downright awful. Neutralized, he managed a 6.53 ERA. Oh my gosh. Were the Pirates paying any attention? In 2010, he had a .306 BAbip, compared to .298 in 2009, when he had a 3.91 ERA (4.62 neutralized). His LD% remained exactly the same at 21%. The only major difference was in HR/FB, 5.6% in '09 compared to 9.5% in '10. Still, that shouldn't raise his ERA by 1.49! There's absolutely no reason to believe Correia will rebound in 2011. At least he's a decent hitting pitcher, considering he hit .136 in '10 with 5 RBI and 6 sac bunts. Correia was a terrible signing for the Pirates, and they'll be lucky if he posts a 5.00 ERA in '11.
There are two candidates for the final spot in the Pirates' rotation: Charlie Morton and Scott Olsen.
Morton, a 27 year old right-hander, seems to be exactly what you'd expect from a Pirates pitcher. Brace yourself for his 2010 stats: 2-12 record, 7.57 ERA, 59 K's, 26 walks, 112 hits allowed (12.7 H/9), and 15 homers allowed (1.7 HR/9) in 17 starts and 79.2 IP (he pitched to a 3.82 ERA in 14 Triple-A starts and 80 IP). Oh my gosh. He managed a -2.4 WAR for the Pirates. That takes some skill (or lack thereof). He even had a total -2.7 WAR after a -0.3 offensive WAR (.038 BA, 0 RBI, 1 sac bunt). But, you know what's funny? Morton had a decent 4.55 ERA in 18 starts in 2009. What the heck happened? Actually, exactly what you'd expect: an increase in BAbip, HR/FB, and LD%. In 2009, Morton had a .316 BAbip against him. After looking at that, you would think that maybe his BAbip would return to neutral and he'd post maybe a 4.35 ERA in '10 with average luck. Of course, that didn't happen. Instead, his BAbip hit rock-bottom, ballooning to .361. That explains his 12.7 H/9 in '10 compared to 9.5 in '09. And why did that happen? Because of an increase in LD%. Morton had a good 17% LD% in 2009, but a terrible 22% LD% in '10. You have to hope that Morton will be able to fix that in 2011 (presumably by keeping the ball away from the middle of the plate). Of course though, that wasn't his only problem. He allowed a 10.7 HR/FB (further enhancing my hypothesis that he allowed too many hittable pitches). There's a good amount of luck involved with HR/FB (there's a 1 inch [or less] difference on the bat between a homer and a fly ball to the track), but I feel like the increase in LD% coupled with his increase in HR/FB has to be because of too many hittable pitches allowed. Looking at the Pitch F/X data at http://brooksbaseball.net, it's no hypothesis, I'm right (I did only look at a sample of games). He did improve in September, leading to a 4.09 ERA, 0.5 HR/9, and a 21% LD% compared to a 10.03 ERA, a 2.5 HR/9, and a 23 LD% the rest of the season (his BAbip decreased to .337 from .376 ). Morton was straightened out after coming back to the minors (although his first start back in late August was a complete disaster, considering he allowed 7 ER in 3.1 IP). Maybe Morton won't post a low-4.00's ERA in 2011, but you have to be encouraged by his September stats. If the Pirates have the guts to look past his 7.57 ERA in '10, Morton should certainly be considered for the 5th starter job.
It's not as though Olsen's 2010 stats blew Morton out of the water. Olsen was certainly better, but better is a comparative word, and it's certainly not hard to be better than a 7.57 ERA. Even a pitcher with a 7.56 ERA would be better than Morton. Anyway, Olsen, a lefty, had a pretty bad year for the Nats in '10, going 4-8 with a 5.56 ERA, 53 K's, and 27 walks in 15 starts, 2 RA's, and 81 IP. He allowed 93 hits, a 10.3 H/9, and 10 homers, a 1.1 HR/9. Olsen's last decent season was 2008, when he went 8-11 with 4.20 ERA in 33 starts for the Marlins. He went 2-4 with a 6.03 ERA in 11 starts for the Nats in 2009. How good is Olsen, really? Olsen had a .317 BAbip is '10, compared to a .348 in 2009 and .261 in 2008. His LD% over that time frame were 20% in 2010, 23% in 2009 and 19% in 2008. What those stats tell us is that Olsen didn't allow a 10.4 H/9 because of a bad line drive rate, so he was a bit unlucky, but even with a 9.0 H/9, how much better would his ERA have been? 5.00? He also had a below-average 7.1 HR/FB in '10, so that's not what made him so bad in 2010! Olsen isn't a good pitcher. He needed a .261 BAbip to post a 4.20 ERA in '10, and add .40 to any pitcher's BAbip, and his ERA will certainly go up at least half a run. If his BAbip and HR/FB are neutral in 2010, I would expect something like a 4.70 ERA if he wins the 5th starter job. Olsen doesn't impress with the bat either, considering he hit just .083 in '10 with no RBI and 4 sac bunts. At least he's only signed for one year, and for just $550,000 (there's a 4 million dollar team option in 2012). Olsen might be able to be a decent 5th starter for the Pirates if given the chance.
We'll have to see how they perform in Spring Training, but I feel like Morton has the edge. He has the potential to be an effective starter with average luck while Olsen, with average luck, would be worse than him. But, Morton still has options left, and Olsen is signed to a major league contract. Morton will need an exceptional spring training to take the job from Olsen to begin the year. Olsen has made just 6 professional relief appearances, so it's unclear whether he could adapt to being a long reliever. I feel like somehow, some way, Charlie Morton will end up as the Pirates' 5th starter, if not out of spring training then at some point during the year. He's just a better pitcher. It's unfortunate that due to bad luck he's never gotten to prove that.
Bullpen:
I usually make the position of closer its own category, but although Joel Hanrahan has been named the closer over Evan Meek to begin the year, it's unclear whether he will retain that role. There's certainly more uncertainty for the Pirates at closer than for your average team.
Withholding his ERA for a second, Hanrahan, a 29 year old right-hander, seemed to have a great year based on several numbers. He went 4-1 with 100 K's, an impressive out of the bullpen and which amounted to a 12.9 K/9, 26 walks, which came out to a 3.4 BB/9, a 3.85 K/BB (strikeout to walk) ratio, 58 hits allowed, a 7.5 H/9, and 6 homers, a decent 0.8 HR/9, 18 holds, and 6 saves in 72 RA's and 69.2 IP. He sounds like an awfully good pitcher. What would you think his ERA was? At least under 3.00, right? In reality, Hanrahan had a 3.62 ERA. I guess you have to point to his homer rate as the reason he posted his 3.62 ERA, but otherwise, he was downright incredible. He allowed a 7.5 H/9 despite a .329 BAbip. The .329 BAbip was just Hanrahan being unlucky because he had an 18% LD%. Hanrahan allowed just a 59% IP%, 10% lower than the MLB average of 69%, which is what you would think made him so good. He allowed his 0.8 HR/9 because of a 7.5% HR/FB that was right around the league average of 7.7%. He still sounds like a pitcher who should have posted an ERA under 3.00 to me. Maybe if his BAbip goes down to .300, that would be enough to get him to a high 2.00's ERA. Hanrahan maybe gives up a few too many homers to be a top-flight closer, but he seems like he would do a decent job in the role, at least getting 20 saves.
Meek, who will turn 28 in May, would seem like a great closer candidate if I withhold a different stat for a moment. Meek went 5-4 with a 2.14 ERA, 31 walks, a 3.5 BB/9, 53 hits allowed, which comes out to a great 6.0 H/9, 5 homers, which is good for a 0.6 HR/9, 15 holds, and 4 saves in 70 RA's and 80 IP. Of course, I omitted strikeouts. Meek's 70 K's amounted to a 7.9 K/9, which is fine, but not great at all. How was he so effective without striking so many guys out? The reason was that he had just a .226 BAbip against him in '10. But, it certainly wasn't purely out of luck. Meek allowed just a 15% LD%, and he allowed quite a few ground balls, posting a 1.29 GB/FB ratio and a 1.93 GO/AO ratio. Meek just doesn't allow many hard-hit balls. Going along with that, Meek allowed a slightly-below average 6.5% HR/FB, close enough to neutral to make me think that Meek just didn't allow many hard-hit balls to the outfield, either. Meek gets around the relatively low strikeout rate by not allowing solid contact. He's certainly a good pitcher.
Hanrahan is more of a strikeout pitcher than Meek, but Meek allows very few hard-hit balls, similar to most closers. Hanrahan seems like he could be a decent closer, but Meek could be a very good closer, albeit unorthodox because of his somewhat low strikeout rate. Both of them could be effective closers, but considering that Meek allows quite a less homers than Hanrahan and is a year younger than him, he'll be the better closer long term. I would expect Hanrahan to have a decent start as the Pirates' closer in '11, but after several blown saves because of long home runs, Meek takes over and pitches pretty well in the role. The loser for the job should be an effective setup man.
28 year old right-hander Chris Resop's 2010 stats weren't anything special. He went 0-0 with a 3.86 ERA, 26 K's, 13 walks, and 5 holds in 23 RA's and 21 IP between the Braves and Pirates. But, he allowed 15 hits for a great 6.0 H/9, and just 1 homer for a 0.4 HR/9. He had no noticable flaw! It's not like Hanrahan where he had somewhat of a problem in terms of homers. What's going on here? Well, notice I said that he spent 2010 between the Braves and Pirates. He appeared in 1 RA for the Braves and 22 for the Pirates. He had a great 1.89 ERA for the Pirates. Clearly he had a great year for the Pirates, but how did he manage an overall ERA nearly 2.00 higher than his ERA with the Pirates if he made just one relief appearance for the Braves? Get ready for Resop's stats on the Braves: in 1 two-inning relief appearance, he allowed 5 hits, 5 runs, 5 earned runs, and 3 walks while striking out 2 batters. That comes out to a scary 22.50 ERA. Again, take out that one appearance and he has a 1.89 ERA. Just looking at these stats, you have to say that Resop is a very good reliever who just had the worst night of his life in a relief appearance for the Braves. Is that really the case? During that one appearance for the Braves, Resop was the most unlucky pitcher in baseball, allowing an unbelievable .556 BAbip, not too far off from being double the MLB average of .300. Wow. But, after that, he allowed just a .220 BAbip. His luck completely flipped. There's a good stat and a bad stat for Resop's time on the Pirates: he allowed just a 53% IP%, which is outstanding, but he allowed a 21% LD%. In terms of BAbip, Resop was certainly very lucky to allow a .220 BAbip on the Pirates despite a 21% LD%. Resop's BAbip should come back to earth in 2011, but if he keeps up that 53% IP% he should be fine. I doubt Resop will put up a sub-2.00 ERA for the Pirates in 2011, but he has a could chance of putting up a sub-3.00 ERA.
So far, I've mentioned three relievers for the Pirates, and all of them are pretty good. Will Chris Leroux continue the trend? Well, Leroux, who will turn 27 in April, didn't exactly put up the kind of numbers you want to see- in 23 RA's and 22.2 IP, he went 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA, 22 K's, 14 walks, 28 hits allowed (11.1 H/9), 1 homer allowed (0.4 HR/9), and 3 holds. He certainly didn't put up good stats. But, stats can certainly be deceiving (see Charlie Morton). Leroux allowed a crazy .397 BAbip. That's just unlucky for him, right? He'll be a decent pitcher when his BAbip returns to neutral in 2011, right? Leroux was certainly unlucky, but he did allow a 23% LD%. You can't like that. Compounding the problem is that Leroux allowed just a 3.3 HR/FB. At least he allowed a pretty good 65 IP%, but you still can't like Leroux very much. Unless he really improves his LD%, you have to expect at least a 4.50 ERA from Leroux (unless of course, he gets really lucky). Leroux isn't a good reliever, and it's not a good thing for the Pirates that he's going to be an important part of their bullpen, considering who I'm going to mention next.
Before I mentioned Leroux, maybe you could have argued that the Pirates are not that bad of a team. That have a decent offense, a defense that has shown great range and could improve mightily in 2011, a decent rotation, and a couple of pretty good relievers at the back end of the bullpen. But then, there was Leroux, and also there's Daniel McCutchen, Jeff Karstens, and Jose Ascanio, two of which will make the Pirates out of spring training. Even if you say that middle relievers are replaceable, that doesn't matter unless you can replace them, which the Pirates can't do right now.
McCutchen, a 28 year old right-hander, is exactly what you'd expect from a Pirates reliever. In 2010, he appeared in 28 games, 9 of which were starts, going 2-5 with a 6.12 ERA, 38 K's (just a 5.1 K/9), 28 walks (3.7 BB/9), 83 hits allowed (11.0 H/9), and 13 homers allowed (1.7 HR/9) in 67.2 IP. (He didn't record any holds. He had a 6.49 ERA as a starter and a 5.47 ERA as a reliever. He was just plain awful. You have to wonder how the heck he managed an 11.0 H/9 with a .303 BAbip and a 15% LD%. At least his 1.7 HR/9 was because of a 10.0 HR/FB. Still, come on! McCutchen is not a good pitcher at all. I'll be shocked if he posts a sub-5.00 ERA in '11.
I can't say Karstens was that bad in 2010. THe 28 year old righty went 3-10 with a 4.92 ERA, 72 K's, 27 walks, 146 hits allowed (10.7 H/9), and 21 homers allowed (1.5 HR/9) in 26 starts, 7 RA's and 122.2 IP. He actually was halfway decent as a starter, posting a 4.78 ERA, but allowing a 5.87 ERA as a reliever. Karsten is a 5th starter-type pitcher, but he has no place in the Pirates' rotation right now. Karstens 2011 stats as a starter are pretty much what he is with neutral luck. He allowed a .309 BAbip, so he was a little bit unlucky, but not too much at all. He allowed a good 17% LD%, but a 77% IP%. He did allow a 10.1 HR/FB, so at neutral he would probably post closer to a 1.0 HR/9. With a .300 BAbip and a 7.7 HR/9, maybe Karstens posts a 4.50 ERA. That's the best he could do. But, that would be as a starter. In his career, he has a 4.92 ERA as a starter, but a 5.63 ERA in relief. Karstens hasn't gotten comfortable pitching out of the bullpen, even after 39 career RA's. Unless he finally adjusts to the bullpen, expect Karstens to post an ERA in the 5.00's in '11, unless he's given a chance to start.
Ascanio, who will turn 26 in May, missed all of '10 with a torn labrum. He appeared in just 2 minor league relief appearances, posting a 0.00 ERA and 7 K's in 2 RA's and 3 IP. Ascanio last appeared in the majors in 2009, going 0-2 with a 4.00 ERA, 20 K's, 9 walks, and 1 hold in 16 RA's and 18 IP between the Cubs and Pirates. He allowed 22 hits, an 11.0 H/9, and 1 homer, a 0.5 HR/9. Those are pretty good stats. But, when you consider he had a crazy .412 BAbip, you better be amazed. He even had a great 15% LD% and he still had that .412 BAbip. Despite that, he still put up a 4.00 ERA. You have to impressed. He did allow a 3.8% HR/FB, so he was lucky in that regard, but he also allowed a good 59% IP%. If those were his 2010 numbers, I would expect big things from him in 2011. But, he was a pretty good reliever then, not necessarily now. Could he be a good reliever for the Pirates in 2011? We'll have to see if he's healthy in spring training. If healthy, Ascanio could be an effective reliever for the Pirates in 2011.
Overview:
Simply put, the Pirates are not a good team. But, they're not as bad as they were in 2010. Their young players are developing, and maybe in a couple years, when their top pitching prospects such as Jameson Taillon arrive in the majors, they will contend. Not in 2010, though. They're not that bad of an offensive team, but they're below-average defensively, their rotation is decent at best, their bullpen is filled with holes after Meek, Hanrahan, and Resop, and even among those three, they don't have a proven closer. They'll improve in 2011, but it's hard not to improve on their 105-loss 2010.
2010 record: 57-105
Prediction: 63-99, 6th in NL Central
The Pirates will contend if... most of the following things happen: either Snyder or Doumit steps up at catcher, Overbay puts up decent numbers, Walker, Alvarez, and Tabata continue to improve, Cedeno survives offensively, Jones drives in 100 runs, McCutchen goes 20-30 (20 homers, 30 stolen bases), McDonald puts up a 3.50 ERA over a full season, Maholm and Ohlendorf put up low-4.00's ERA, Correia posts a mid-4.00's ERA, the 5th starter (Morton or Olsen) puts up a sub-5.00 ERA, Hanrahan or Meek steps up as the closer, and the bullpen as a whole posts a sub-4.00 ERA.
Friday, February 18, 2011
2011 MLB Preview: San Francisco Giants
The defending champion San Francisco Giants seemed primed to build a dynasty. After watching them dismantle the Texas Rangers, at least we all thought so. But, 2011 is a new season, with a reinvigorated division and an even stronger Phillies team standing in their way. Can they put everything together again or will they be one-and-done?
Catcher:
After winning the NL Rookie of the Year in 2010, the expectations will be high for Buster Posey. Posey is motivated to exceed those expectations. Nobody expected anybody to steal the NL Rookie of the Year award from Jason Heyward. Posey did just that. Posey had a great rookie season, hitting .305 with 23 doubles, 18 homers, 67 RBI, and a .357 OBP in just 108 games. He slugged .505, way above the league average of .415, and his .862 OPS makes the league average of .748 pale in comparison. And it's not like he was extremely lucky, considering he posted a .315 BAbip, which was above-average, but certainly reasonable and relatively common. Defensively, Posey posted a just below-average .991 Fld%, but he posted a 37% CS% which ranked 4th in the NL. He had an amazing year, and accordingly, he finished 11th in the NL MVP voting. At age 23, it's only uphill from here for Posey. He'll be backed up by Eli Whiteside. Whiteside isn't a completely helpless player at the bat, considering he hit .238 in '10 with 6 doubles, 4 homers, and 10 RBI, although he posted just a .299 OBP in 56 games and 140 PA. Defensively, he posted a .994 Fld% in '10 with a 29% CS%, so he's pretty good defensively as well. Posey is just an amazing player at catcher for the Giants.
First base:
After the 2009 season, Aubrey Huff was a forgotten player. He had hit a career-low .241 in '09 with just a .310 OBP. The Giants signed him from the scrap-heap for just 3 million dollars on a one-year deal. What a move by them. Huff hit .290 in '10 with 35 doubles, 26 homers, 86 RBI, 100 runs, 5 triples, 7 stolen bases (0 CS), and a career-high .385 OBP in 157 games. Obviously the career-high in OBP at age 33 was pretty amazing, but even crazier was his 7 for 7 in stolen base attempts one season after going 0 for 6. He also walked nearly as many times as he struck out, 83 to 91. He also did it with a .303 BAbip, essentially neutral. In his first career postseason appearance, Huff hit .268 with 1 homer and 8 RBI in 15 games. He also posted an above-average .995 Fld% defensively at first base. Huff had a really great year in '10 and was rewarded with a two-year, 20 million dollar contract with a 10 million dollar team option for the third year. But, will he be anywhere near as good over the next three years as he was in 2010? Everyone's gut feeling seems to be no. Bill James has him hitting .269 in '11 with 19 homers, 75 RBI, and just a .348 OBP in 548 plate appearances (he had 668 in '10). Huff might play pretty well in 2011, but the Giants definitely made a mistake by signing Huff to a two-year deal. There's absolutely no guarantee that he his production won't drop off in 2011 and never return to its previous levels. And, where will his signing leave top prospect Brandon Belt? Belt, a 2009 5th-round pick as a first baseman who will turn 23 in April, is considered by almost everyone to be the Giants' top prospect. He had a huge season in the minors in 2010, advancing from High-A all the way to Triple-A and hitting .352 overall with 43 doubles, 23 homers, 112 RBI, 10 triples, 99 runs, 22 stolen bases, and a .455 OBP in 136 games. He did hit just .229 in 13 Triple-A games, with 4 homers, 10 RBI, and a .393 OBP. Belt posted a .992 Fld% at first base in '10, and a perfect 1.000 Fld% in 11 games in RF and 3 games in LF. But, in addition to Huff at first base, the Giants have established players Mark DeRosa in left field, and playoff hero Cody Ross, the Giants have no position they can start Belt at, barring an injury. But, the good news for the Giants is that the contracts of both DeRosa and Ross run out after 2011, so they could let at least one of them walk, opening up a starting job for Belt in the outfield (I bet they let DeRosa walk). Belt probably needs a full season at Triple-A anyway. Huff's backup at the big league level will be Travis Ishikawa. Ishikawa hit .266 in '10 with 11 doubles, 3 homers, 22 RBI, and a .320 OBP in 116 games, but just 176 PA. He posted an 1.000 Fld% in 73 games at first base in '10, and has a .995 Fld% there for his career. He's a fine backup. Aubrey Huff appears to have at least one more decent year in him, but he could be a problem for the Giants in 2012.
Second base:
When healthy, Freddy Sanchez will be the Giants' second baseman in '10. But, the 33 year old ex-batting champ (2006) has played in just 111 games each of the past two seasons, so his backups have certainly gotten their share of AB's. In 2010, Sanchez missed until May 19th with shoulder injuries. But, in those 11 games when he was healthy, he did pretty well, hitting .292 with 22 doubles, 7 homers, 47 RBI, and a .342 OBP. He had a .330 BAbip, so you would think he was lucky, but it was actually because he had an above-average LD% and an above-average IP%. (Also, realize that he has a .324 career BAbip.) Defensively at second base, he posted a very good .991 Fld%, but he did show poor range. When healthy, Sanchez is a good presence at the top of the Giants' lineup. Sanchez will be backed up by Mike Fontenot and Emmanuel Burriss (if he makes the team). Fontenot, acquired in a trade with the Cubs (through waivers) in August, did make a few starts for the Cubs the past couple of years. Fontenot, who will turn 31 in June, hit .283 between the Cubs and Giants in '10 with 13 doubles, 1 homer, 25 RBI, 3 triples, and a .331 OBP in 103 games, but just 261 PA. He made just 55 starts, but he made 100 starts in 2009. In '09, he hit .236 with 22 doubles, 9 homers, 43 RBI, and a .301 OBP in 135 games. That amounted to an even 0.0 WAR. At least he's not negative (well, not until you factor in his defense that year). Fontenot is an average defender at second base and third base (in addition to being an awful shortstop), but he has shown bad range. He's certainly not a great backup. Burriss spent his age 25 season of 2010 primarily in the minors after spending most of '08 and '09 and the big league roster. In limited time at the majors in '10, he hit an even .400 (2 for 5), while hitting .279 with 11 doubles, 0 homers, 23 RBI, 12 stolen bases, and a .333 OBP in 72 minor league games. He missed quite a big of time when he re-injured a fracture of a bone in his foot that also cost him most of 2009. IN 2009 before the injury, Burriss hit .238 with 6 doubles, 0 homers, 13 RBI, 11 stolen bases, and just a .292 OBP in 61 games (220 PA). In '08, he hit .283 with 6 doubles, 1 homers, 18 RBI, 3 stolen bases, and a .357 OBP in 95 games. In 163 major league games, he had hit .264 with 12 doubles, 1 homer, 31 RBI, 24 stolen bases, and a .329 OBP. He's a below-average defender with below-average range at both second base and shortstop. If Sanchez does get hurt, I don't think either Fontenot or Burriss would be an adequate replacement. They are halfway decent as backups. Sanchez is a pretty good player, but he has to stay healthy in 2011.
Third base:
The enigma that is Pablo Sandoval is lined up to play third base for the Giants in '11. In 2009, "Kung Fu Panda", just 22 years old, burst onto the scene, hitting .330 with 44 doubles, 25 homers, 90 RBI, 79 runs, and a .387 OBP in 153 games. He even managed to post an above-average .960 Fld% at third base, albeit with below-average range. He even finished 7th in the NL MVP voting. He was already considered a star. Apparently those considerations were premature. Sandoval was nothing special in 2010, hitting .268 with 34 doubles, 13 homers, 63 RBI, and a .323 OBP in 152 games. (He did lead the league in a stat for the first time: double plays grounded into.) He posted a .961 Fld%, above-average again, and with slightly better, but still below-average range. I could probably talk about Sandoval's fielding, but it's pretty clear that Sandoval will always be a below-average defender. Let's talk about the more pressing issue, Sandoval's hitting. How did his BA decrease from .330 to .268? How did his homers free-fall from 25 to 13? What the heck happened? I hate to say it, but Sandoval didn't have an off-year in '10, he had the kind of season he should of had all along. Why did Sandoval hit .330 with 25 homers in '09? A .350 BAbip and a 10.4% HR/FB despite a league-average 19% LD%. In 2010, he had a .291 BAbip and a 5.5% HR/FB even though he had a 20% LD%. He just got lucky in 2009. I was shocked to see that Bill James had him hitting .308 with 18 homers, 78 RBI, and a .363 OBP. I respectfully disagree. Sandoval isn't as bad as he was in 2010, but I can't see him hitting anything above .300, maybe with 15 homers and 70 RBI. (Fine, those stats are pretty similar, but they certainly make a difference.) Sandoval is a decent player, but he's not a star. Sandoval will be backed up by Fontenot and Ryan Rohlinger (if he makes the team). Rohlinger, 27, has nothing left to prove in the minors. In his second season at Triple-A, Rohlinger hit .311 with 11 doubles, 8 homers, 48 RBI, and a .392 OBP in 77 games while posting an above-average .978 Fld% at SS and a ridiculous .984 Fld% at third. He has shown great range at third and decent range at short. Rohlinger's career high in games played in the majors was 21 in 2008, and although he has a .136 BA, he deserves an extended chance. He could be an effective backup. Pablo Sandoval is overrated, but he should bounce back a bit in 2011.
Shortstop:
This offseason, the Giants Miguel Tejada, who will turn 37 in May, to a 1 year, 6.5 million dollar contract, replacing World Series MVP Edgar Renteria. Tejada isn't the player he used to be. He hasn't hit 20 homers or driven in 100 runs since 2006. But, he's still a decent player. In 2010, he hit .269 between the Orioles and Padres with 26 doubles, 15 homers, 71 RBI, and a .312 OBP in 156 games. He had a .280 BAbip, just a bit unlucky (with a .318 BAbip in 2009, he hit .313). He posted a great .987 Fld% at shortstop, but of course with below-average range. (He posted just a .947 Fld% at third base, although he did show decent range). He's lost most of his power, but he's still a pretty good player offensively and he's decent defensively. He'll be backed up by Fontentot, Burriss, and Rohlinger (maybe more like Fontenot and Burriss or Rohlinger). Miguel Tejada is still a decent player, and he'll do OK for the Giants.
Left field/Right field:
The Giants could go with various outfield alignments, nearly all of which featuring Andres Torres in centerfield. But, there's some debate as to left field and right field. There are three players for two spots: Cody Ross, Mark DeRosa, and Pat Burrell. Ross, 30, hit .269 with 28 doubles, 14 homers, 65 RBI, 9 stolen bases, and a .322 OBP in 153 games between the Marlins and Giants. He hit .294 with 5 homers and 10 RBI, and a .390 OBP in the playoffs, winning the NLCS MVP. His decrease in the homers in the regular season was due to a decrease in HR/FB from 9.9% to 7.5% (his lowest since '05). His career HR/FB is 10.4%. Around 7.7% is neutral, but obviously that mixes in power hitters and the Jason Kendall's of the world who have hit 20 homers since '02. Ross averaged 18 homers per season from '06 to '09, so I would expect Ross to hit right around 20 homers in 2011 (Bill James says 18). He'll almost definitely start somewhere. He has a .976 career Fld% in both left field and right field (.994 in centerfield where he has played the most games), but he has more experience in right field, so he'll probably start in right field. DeRosa lasted until May 8th in '10 before going down with a wrist injury. He's questionable for the start of spring training. He hit .268 with a .348 OBP, averaging 26 doubles, 22 homers, and 82 RBI from '08 to '09. But, DeRosa is 36, so that just might have been his late prime, and now it's over. DeRosa plays better in right field than left field, but of course he plays everywhere, and he still has a .991 Fld% in left field (compared to .997 in right), so he would do fine defensively. But, is he any better than Burrell? If you make him the starter in left field, than he can't be the utility player he's been his whole career! He could theoretically get starts in left field, second base, shortstop, and third base as a utility player (in which case you could insert DeRosa into the backups list for each of those positions). But, before we decide whether to commit DeRosa to left field, let's look at Burrell's stats. Burrell, 34 now, hit .252 with 21 doubles, 20 homers, 64 RBI, and a .348 OBP in 120 games between the Rays and Giants. He posted a slightly below-average .984 Fld% in left field with just below-average range, so he's not a liability defensively. I think that you don't know what you're going to get from DeRosa offensively after wrist surgery, so the Giants should start Ross in right and Burrell in left. DeRosa, if healthy, would still get close to 400 PA as a utilityman. The Giants will have to decide their alignment, but that's what I think. The backup in right field will be Nate Schierholtz. Schierholtz, who turned 27 on February 15th, hit .242 in '10 with 13 doubles, 3 homers, 17 RBI, 3 triples, 4 stolen bases, and a .311 OBP in 137 games (252 PA). In 109 games, but just 41 starts in right field, Schierholtz posted a .992 Fld% with 7 outfield assists. He's very good defensively. The Giants' alignment in left field and right field is a bit complicated, but they have three capable players in Ross, DeRosa, and Burrell who would be fine starters.
Centerfield:
Andres Torres appeared out of nowhere in 2010 to have a very good season as the Giants' starting centerfielder, hitting .268 with 43 doubles, 16 homers, 63 RBI, 8 triples, 84 runs, 26 stolen bases, and a .343 OBP in 139 games. He posted a .995 Fld% in 84 games in centerfield, and he was perfect in 70 combined games in left field and right field. Not only did he post great fielding percentages, but also, he showed great range. And he did all of this in his first full season in the majors at age 32. Torres spent 12 seasons in the minors (1998-2009), playing in just 164 major league games over that time, but the Giants finally gave him his first real chance, and he did not disappoint. Torres did have a .331 BAbip, but you have to root for this guy that he'll be able to keep that up. He also did have a 21% LD% in '10, so it's not that far-fetched. I'm sure that he'll be a good player both offensively and of course defensively again in 2011. Torres will be backed up by Aaron Rowand. Rowand, now 33, is not the same player anymore and he has no versatility (he hasn't played any defensive position besides centerfield since 2004), but he's signed for two more years at 24 million dollars per year. Rowand hit just .230 in '10, with 12 doubles, 11 homers, 34 RBI, 5 stolen bases, and just a .281 OBP in 105 games. At least he's still good defensively (1.000 Fld% in centerfield in '10 with decent range). Interestingly, Torres' possible future replacement is going to Triple-A in , 2011 Darren Ford. Ford hit .251 at Double-A Richmond with 20 doubles, 5 homers, 40 RBI, 9 triples, 37 stolen bases, and a .315 OBP in 113 games. Ford stole an incredible 198 bases from '06 to '08 at the three A levels (SS-A, Low-A, High-A). He posted a decent .985 Fld% in centerfield with good range. He could become a younger Torres with more speed and less power. With Rowand on the team, Ford couldn't even make the Giants if he hit .800 in spring training. Andres Torres is a nice story for the Giants, and that great story should continue in 2011.
Starting Rotation:
In 2010, Giants ace Tim Lincecum had one of the best off-years you will ever see, going 16-10 with a 3.43 ERA, and 231 K's (most in the NL) compared to 76 walks in 33 starts and 212.1 IP. He allowed 194 hits, 8.2 per 9, and 18 homers, 0.8 per 9. He had a increase in hits, homers, and walks allowed, while having a decrease in strikeouts compared to his Cy Young years of '08 and '09. Those factors caused his ERA to jump by nearly a full run. His BAbip went up to a career-high .315, so he was a bit unlucky, and his HR/FB went up to career-high 6.8%. If those numbers return down to his career averages of .301 and 5.2% respectively, Lincecum's ERA will certainly be back in the 2.00's. Lincecum was pretty lucky during his Cy Young years, having a 3.9 HR/FB, but he's certainly a good enough pitcher to still post an ERA in the 2.00's without being lucky. He was certainly good enough to lead the Giants to the championship, going 4-1 with a 2.43 ERA in the playoffs. He's certainly a top-end pitcher, and you have to remember that he won't even turn 27 until June and he's won two Cy Youngs. He's not as good with the bat, hitting just .104, but he had 5 RBI and 13 sac bunts. Lincecum is a very good ace for the Giants.
Matt Cain wasn't too shabby either, going 13-11 with a 3.14 ERA in '10 with 177 K's compared to 61 walks in 33 starts and 223.1 IP. He allowed 181 hits, a 7.3 H/9, and 22 homers, a 0.9 HR/9. He arguably had a better season than Lincecum (but, he didn't lead the league in any categories). He was lucky, allowing just a .254 BAbip, but then again, he allowed just a 17% LD%. In the playoffs, Cain was unbelievable, going 2-0 with a perfect 0.00 ERA in 3 starts. Cain is a solid pitcher, and he's young too, just 26 years old and already in his 6th season in the majors. He hit .106 with 1 RBI and 10 sac bunts. Cain is a great number 2 starter for the Giants.
How many good young pitchers do the Giants have? 28 year old southpaw Jonathan Sanchez had his best season in 2010, going 13-9 with a 3.07 ERA, and 205 K's compared to 96 walks (most in the NL) in 33 starts, 1 RA, and 193.1 IP. He allowed just 142 hits, just 6.6 per 9, best in the NL, but 21 homers, a 1.0 HR/9. Why did Sanchez improve so much from his 4.24 ERA in 2009? Well, for starters he had a .255 BAbip, easily the best of his career, but he wasn't lucky. He had a 17% LD%, and just a 60% IP% (league average 69%). He was pretty much unhittable, except when he did get hit, he got hit pretty hard, allowing 21 homers despite an 8.6 HR/FB that wasn't that much above average. Still, he's a good pitcher. He didn't do all that well in the playoffs, going 0-2 with a 4.05 ERA. He hit .138 with 3 RBI and 7 sac bunts. Sanchez is a very good Jackson is a very good third starter for San Francisco.
The youngest of this group, 21 year old Madison Bumgarner, might end up being the best of them (that's a tall order with Lincecum and Cain among the group). He had a very good rookie season, going 7-6 with a 3.00 ERA, and 86 K's compared to 26 walks in 18 starts and 111 IP. He allowed 119 hits, over a hit per inning at 9.6 per 9, and 11 homers, 0.9 per 9. How was he so successful with the bad hit and homer rates? An 81.7% strand rate (runners left on base at the end of innings). Based on that, you would think that Bumgarner isn't that good. But, he had a .314 BAbip despite a 17% LD%. A few too many ground balls went through the hole, but when they did, Bumgarner buckled down and got through the inning. When everything evens out, Bumgarner could be posting a 3.00 or less ERA for years to come. He went 2-0 with a 2.18 ERA in 4 postseason games, 3 starts. Maybe that's what he could be. Bumgarner hit .179 with 3 RBI and 3 sac bunts. Expect Madison Bumgarner to take another step forward in 2011.
Barry Zito is a unique pitcher in the Giants' rotation. He's the only one over 30 (he'll turn 33 in May). He's the only one making over 10 million dollars (18.5 million). He's the only one the couldn't manage a winning record in '10 (9-14). And, he's the only one that posted an ERA over 4.00 (4.15). Not a good combination at all. He hasn't managed a winning record or an ERA under 4.00 while on the Giants. He hasn't isn't even pitched a 200-inning season! In 2010, he came 2/3 of an inning short, pitching 199.1 innings. Putting all the stats together, Zito went 9-14 with a 4.15 ERA, and 150 K's compared to 84 walks in 33 starts, 1 RA, and 199.1 IP. He allowed 184 hits, an 8.3 H/9, and 20 homers, a 0.9 HR/9. He put up those numbers with a .286 BAbip, a 6.5 HR/FB, and a 19% LD%. He's just a league-average pitcher at this point in his career. But, he's the Giants' 5th starter, and a very good 5th starter at that. How many 5th starters post a low-4.00's ERA? He is a very good bunter- he hit just .118 with 2 RBI, but with 14 sac bunts. Zito is ridiculously overpaid, but he's a good 5th starter for the Giants.
Bullpen:
Jeremy Affeldt was one of the best middle relievers in baseball in 2009, posting a 1.73 ERA in 74 RA's. Different story in 2010. He posted a 4.14 ERA in 53 appearances. What was the difference? Well, first of all, the ERA's aren't the full story. In 2009, he went 2-2 with that 1.73 ERA, 55 K's, 31 walks, and an incredible 33 holds in 74 RA's and 62.1 IP. He allowed 42 hits, a 6.1 H/9, and 3 homers, a 0.4 HR/9. In 2010, he went 4-3 with a 4.14 ERA, 44 K's, 24 walks, just 7 holds, and 4 saves in 53 RA's and 50 IP. He allowed 56 hits, a 10.1 H/9, and 4 homers, a 0.7 HR/9. The obvious difference is hits allowed. His H/9 jumped by 4.0! Was it BAbip? Heck yes. His BAbip jumped from .250 to .356, from very lucky, to very unlucky. Let's say he has a .300 BAbip. Average out his H/9's from '09 and '10, and he'll have an 8.1 H/9, which is fine. But, was there any reason his BAbip went up so sharply? Yes, his ground ball rate. Ground balls are more likely to be fielded (not necessarily cleanly) than line drives and fly balls. In 2009, he had a 1.91 GB/FB ratio, a 3.09 GO/AO (ground out divided by air out) ratio, and a 30% DP% (percentage of double plays out of double play opportunities). In 2010, those numbers went down to 1.40, 1.97, and just 8% respectively. Can Affleldt get to his previous ground ball rates. That remains to be seen. At least his ERA wasn't that bad in 2010.
Sergio Romo was the exact opposite of Affeldt, posting his best numbers in 2010. Romo, who will turn 28 on March 4th, went 5-3 in '10 with a 2.18 ERA, 70 K's, just 14 walks, and 22 holds in 68 RA's and 62 IP. He allowed 46 hits, 6.7 per 9, but 6 homers, 0.9 per 9. The homers were his only real problem. Romo had a .265 BAbip, so you would think that he was a bit lucky, but that was not the case. He had such a low BABip because he had such a low LD%, 12%. Romo's LD% was an average 19% when he had a 3.97 ERA in 45 games, but it was 12% also in 2008 when he posted a 2.12 ERA in 29 games. The Giants have to hope that it's not an every-other-year kind of pattern and more like a trend he'll continue for at least the next couple of years. If so, Romo will be a very good reliever, continuously posting ERA's in the 2.00's. If not, expect an Affeldt-esque decline in 2011.
30 year old right-hander Santiago Casilla also had a great year for the Giants in 2010, going 7-2 with a 1.95 ERA, 56 K's, 26 walks, 11 holds and 2 saves in 52 RA's and 55.1 IP. He allowed 40 hits and 2 homers, which amount to a 6.5 H/9 and a great 0.3 HR/9 respectively. But, how did he have such a great year after posting a 4.76 ERA from '07 to '09 with the Athletics? First of all, we have to look at would expect a huge increase in ERA in 2011. From '07 to '09, he had a .323 BAbip, and he had a .346 BAbip from '08 to '09. His luck improved in 2010, so he had a much better year. But, there's a couple of problems for Casilla going forward. In 2010, he was lucky enough to have a 3.3 HR/FB. He could allow double as many homers (0.6 HR/9) if his HR/FB returns to neutral. His 60% IP% was outstanding, but he had a bad 21% LD%. Casilla was pretty hard to hit, but when he got hit, he got hit hard. But, lucky for him, a bunch of those line drives and fly balls landed in the gloves of fielders. Don't expect him to be so lucky in 2011. I would expect a jump in ERA of at least 1.00 to 2.95 for Casilla in 2011.
33 year old lefty Javier Lopez was a complete disaster in 2009, posting a 9.26 ERA. But, he had posted a 2.43 ERA in 2008, and he rebounded in a big way in 2010, posting a 4-2 record, 2.34 ERA, 38 K's, 20 walks, and 5 holds in 77 RA's between the Pirates and Giants, and 57.2 IP. He allowed 50 hits, a 7.8 H/9, and 2 homers, a 0.3 HR/9. Well, he had a .279 BAbip, compared to a .413 BAbip in 2009, and right along with his .280 BAbip in 2008. His IP% was a bit high at 73%, but that was not because of a high line drive rate (15% in '10), but because of a high ground ball rate (1.62 GB/FB, 2.27 GO/AO). Lopez has posted an ERA of 2.70 or lower every season in which he has posted a 1.50 or better GB/FB. He was lucky in terms of HR/FB (3.3% including 0.0% on the Giants) and XBH% (28%, just 8% on the Giants; league average 34%), but with a good ground ball rate he'll be fine. If not, expect an ERA of at least 3.00 if not higher (hopefully not 9.00).
29 year old right-hander Ramon Ramirez posted his 3rd straight season with an ERA under 3.00 in '10 going 1-3 with a 2.99 ERA, 46 K's (a 6.0 K/9), 27 walks (a 3.5 BB/9) 7 holds, and 3 saves in 69 RA's between the Red Sox and Giants and 69.1 IP. He allowed 52 hits, 6.8 per 9, but 7 homers, 0.9 per 9. Considering his high walk and homer rates, and his low strikeout rate, he needed every bit of his .223 BAbip. He did allow a good 17% LD%, but he allowed a 71% IP%, so that's worrisome. His luck will end in 2011, and I'm sure his streak of three straight years with an ERA under 3.00 will end as well.
And finally there is lefty Dan Runzler, who will turn 26 on March 30th. He went 3-0 in '10 with a 3.03 ERA, 37 K's, 20 walks, and 4 holds in 41 RA's and 32.2 IP. He allowed 29 hits and 1 homer, an 8.0 H/9 and a 0.3 HR/9 respectively. He had a .346 BAbip, so you have to expect him to improve in 2011. Not the ball got into play that much- he allowed just a 56% IP% and a 17% LD%. Look for Runzler to improve in 2011 and possibly become the most effective lefty in the Giants' bullpen.
Closer:
Brian Wilson, who will turn 29 on March 16th, had an incredible season as the Giant's closer in 2010, going 3-3 with a 1.81 ERA, 93 K's, just 26 walks, and an impressive 48 saves, tops in the NL in 70 RA's and 74.2 IP. He allowed 62 hits, a 7.5 H/9, and just 3 homers, a 0.4 HR/9. He was just plain outstanding. He also posted a perfect 0.00 ERA in 10 postseason relief appearances. He even was unlucky during the regular season, allowing a .314 BAbip, but he overcame it with by posting just a 60% IP% and a 15% LD%. He did allow just a 3.8 HR/FB, so maybe he'll blow an extra save or two in 2011, but he's still a great closer. Wilson is one of the best closers in baseball today.
Overview: http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=3055834605645541006
The Giants have a pretty good lineup and an outstanding rotation. But, their bullpen is certainly a question mark, besides Wilson at the end. At least a couple of those guys in the bullpen will significantly worse ERA's, and can the Giants overcome that? For the most part, they should be able to. It's hard not to label the Giants as favorites in the NL West.
2010: 92-70, first in NL West, World Series Champions
Prediction: 91-71, 1st in NL West
Catcher:
After winning the NL Rookie of the Year in 2010, the expectations will be high for Buster Posey. Posey is motivated to exceed those expectations. Nobody expected anybody to steal the NL Rookie of the Year award from Jason Heyward. Posey did just that. Posey had a great rookie season, hitting .305 with 23 doubles, 18 homers, 67 RBI, and a .357 OBP in just 108 games. He slugged .505, way above the league average of .415, and his .862 OPS makes the league average of .748 pale in comparison. And it's not like he was extremely lucky, considering he posted a .315 BAbip, which was above-average, but certainly reasonable and relatively common. Defensively, Posey posted a just below-average .991 Fld%, but he posted a 37% CS% which ranked 4th in the NL. He had an amazing year, and accordingly, he finished 11th in the NL MVP voting. At age 23, it's only uphill from here for Posey. He'll be backed up by Eli Whiteside. Whiteside isn't a completely helpless player at the bat, considering he hit .238 in '10 with 6 doubles, 4 homers, and 10 RBI, although he posted just a .299 OBP in 56 games and 140 PA. Defensively, he posted a .994 Fld% in '10 with a 29% CS%, so he's pretty good defensively as well. Posey is just an amazing player at catcher for the Giants.
First base:
After the 2009 season, Aubrey Huff was a forgotten player. He had hit a career-low .241 in '09 with just a .310 OBP. The Giants signed him from the scrap-heap for just 3 million dollars on a one-year deal. What a move by them. Huff hit .290 in '10 with 35 doubles, 26 homers, 86 RBI, 100 runs, 5 triples, 7 stolen bases (0 CS), and a career-high .385 OBP in 157 games. Obviously the career-high in OBP at age 33 was pretty amazing, but even crazier was his 7 for 7 in stolen base attempts one season after going 0 for 6. He also walked nearly as many times as he struck out, 83 to 91. He also did it with a .303 BAbip, essentially neutral. In his first career postseason appearance, Huff hit .268 with 1 homer and 8 RBI in 15 games. He also posted an above-average .995 Fld% defensively at first base. Huff had a really great year in '10 and was rewarded with a two-year, 20 million dollar contract with a 10 million dollar team option for the third year. But, will he be anywhere near as good over the next three years as he was in 2010? Everyone's gut feeling seems to be no. Bill James has him hitting .269 in '11 with 19 homers, 75 RBI, and just a .348 OBP in 548 plate appearances (he had 668 in '10). Huff might play pretty well in 2011, but the Giants definitely made a mistake by signing Huff to a two-year deal. There's absolutely no guarantee that he his production won't drop off in 2011 and never return to its previous levels. And, where will his signing leave top prospect Brandon Belt? Belt, a 2009 5th-round pick as a first baseman who will turn 23 in April, is considered by almost everyone to be the Giants' top prospect. He had a huge season in the minors in 2010, advancing from High-A all the way to Triple-A and hitting .352 overall with 43 doubles, 23 homers, 112 RBI, 10 triples, 99 runs, 22 stolen bases, and a .455 OBP in 136 games. He did hit just .229 in 13 Triple-A games, with 4 homers, 10 RBI, and a .393 OBP. Belt posted a .992 Fld% at first base in '10, and a perfect 1.000 Fld% in 11 games in RF and 3 games in LF. But, in addition to Huff at first base, the Giants have established players Mark DeRosa in left field, and playoff hero Cody Ross, the Giants have no position they can start Belt at, barring an injury. But, the good news for the Giants is that the contracts of both DeRosa and Ross run out after 2011, so they could let at least one of them walk, opening up a starting job for Belt in the outfield (I bet they let DeRosa walk). Belt probably needs a full season at Triple-A anyway. Huff's backup at the big league level will be Travis Ishikawa. Ishikawa hit .266 in '10 with 11 doubles, 3 homers, 22 RBI, and a .320 OBP in 116 games, but just 176 PA. He posted an 1.000 Fld% in 73 games at first base in '10, and has a .995 Fld% there for his career. He's a fine backup. Aubrey Huff appears to have at least one more decent year in him, but he could be a problem for the Giants in 2012.
Second base:
When healthy, Freddy Sanchez will be the Giants' second baseman in '10. But, the 33 year old ex-batting champ (2006) has played in just 111 games each of the past two seasons, so his backups have certainly gotten their share of AB's. In 2010, Sanchez missed until May 19th with shoulder injuries. But, in those 11 games when he was healthy, he did pretty well, hitting .292 with 22 doubles, 7 homers, 47 RBI, and a .342 OBP. He had a .330 BAbip, so you would think he was lucky, but it was actually because he had an above-average LD% and an above-average IP%. (Also, realize that he has a .324 career BAbip.) Defensively at second base, he posted a very good .991 Fld%, but he did show poor range. When healthy, Sanchez is a good presence at the top of the Giants' lineup. Sanchez will be backed up by Mike Fontenot and Emmanuel Burriss (if he makes the team). Fontenot, acquired in a trade with the Cubs (through waivers) in August, did make a few starts for the Cubs the past couple of years. Fontenot, who will turn 31 in June, hit .283 between the Cubs and Giants in '10 with 13 doubles, 1 homer, 25 RBI, 3 triples, and a .331 OBP in 103 games, but just 261 PA. He made just 55 starts, but he made 100 starts in 2009. In '09, he hit .236 with 22 doubles, 9 homers, 43 RBI, and a .301 OBP in 135 games. That amounted to an even 0.0 WAR. At least he's not negative (well, not until you factor in his defense that year). Fontenot is an average defender at second base and third base (in addition to being an awful shortstop), but he has shown bad range. He's certainly not a great backup. Burriss spent his age 25 season of 2010 primarily in the minors after spending most of '08 and '09 and the big league roster. In limited time at the majors in '10, he hit an even .400 (2 for 5), while hitting .279 with 11 doubles, 0 homers, 23 RBI, 12 stolen bases, and a .333 OBP in 72 minor league games. He missed quite a big of time when he re-injured a fracture of a bone in his foot that also cost him most of 2009. IN 2009 before the injury, Burriss hit .238 with 6 doubles, 0 homers, 13 RBI, 11 stolen bases, and just a .292 OBP in 61 games (220 PA). In '08, he hit .283 with 6 doubles, 1 homers, 18 RBI, 3 stolen bases, and a .357 OBP in 95 games. In 163 major league games, he had hit .264 with 12 doubles, 1 homer, 31 RBI, 24 stolen bases, and a .329 OBP. He's a below-average defender with below-average range at both second base and shortstop. If Sanchez does get hurt, I don't think either Fontenot or Burriss would be an adequate replacement. They are halfway decent as backups. Sanchez is a pretty good player, but he has to stay healthy in 2011.
Third base:
The enigma that is Pablo Sandoval is lined up to play third base for the Giants in '11. In 2009, "Kung Fu Panda", just 22 years old, burst onto the scene, hitting .330 with 44 doubles, 25 homers, 90 RBI, 79 runs, and a .387 OBP in 153 games. He even managed to post an above-average .960 Fld% at third base, albeit with below-average range. He even finished 7th in the NL MVP voting. He was already considered a star. Apparently those considerations were premature. Sandoval was nothing special in 2010, hitting .268 with 34 doubles, 13 homers, 63 RBI, and a .323 OBP in 152 games. (He did lead the league in a stat for the first time: double plays grounded into.) He posted a .961 Fld%, above-average again, and with slightly better, but still below-average range. I could probably talk about Sandoval's fielding, but it's pretty clear that Sandoval will always be a below-average defender. Let's talk about the more pressing issue, Sandoval's hitting. How did his BA decrease from .330 to .268? How did his homers free-fall from 25 to 13? What the heck happened? I hate to say it, but Sandoval didn't have an off-year in '10, he had the kind of season he should of had all along. Why did Sandoval hit .330 with 25 homers in '09? A .350 BAbip and a 10.4% HR/FB despite a league-average 19% LD%. In 2010, he had a .291 BAbip and a 5.5% HR/FB even though he had a 20% LD%. He just got lucky in 2009. I was shocked to see that Bill James had him hitting .308 with 18 homers, 78 RBI, and a .363 OBP. I respectfully disagree. Sandoval isn't as bad as he was in 2010, but I can't see him hitting anything above .300, maybe with 15 homers and 70 RBI. (Fine, those stats are pretty similar, but they certainly make a difference.) Sandoval is a decent player, but he's not a star. Sandoval will be backed up by Fontenot and Ryan Rohlinger (if he makes the team). Rohlinger, 27, has nothing left to prove in the minors. In his second season at Triple-A, Rohlinger hit .311 with 11 doubles, 8 homers, 48 RBI, and a .392 OBP in 77 games while posting an above-average .978 Fld% at SS and a ridiculous .984 Fld% at third. He has shown great range at third and decent range at short. Rohlinger's career high in games played in the majors was 21 in 2008, and although he has a .136 BA, he deserves an extended chance. He could be an effective backup. Pablo Sandoval is overrated, but he should bounce back a bit in 2011.
Shortstop:
This offseason, the Giants Miguel Tejada, who will turn 37 in May, to a 1 year, 6.5 million dollar contract, replacing World Series MVP Edgar Renteria. Tejada isn't the player he used to be. He hasn't hit 20 homers or driven in 100 runs since 2006. But, he's still a decent player. In 2010, he hit .269 between the Orioles and Padres with 26 doubles, 15 homers, 71 RBI, and a .312 OBP in 156 games. He had a .280 BAbip, just a bit unlucky (with a .318 BAbip in 2009, he hit .313). He posted a great .987 Fld% at shortstop, but of course with below-average range. (He posted just a .947 Fld% at third base, although he did show decent range). He's lost most of his power, but he's still a pretty good player offensively and he's decent defensively. He'll be backed up by Fontentot, Burriss, and Rohlinger (maybe more like Fontenot and Burriss or Rohlinger). Miguel Tejada is still a decent player, and he'll do OK for the Giants.
Left field/Right field:
The Giants could go with various outfield alignments, nearly all of which featuring Andres Torres in centerfield. But, there's some debate as to left field and right field. There are three players for two spots: Cody Ross, Mark DeRosa, and Pat Burrell. Ross, 30, hit .269 with 28 doubles, 14 homers, 65 RBI, 9 stolen bases, and a .322 OBP in 153 games between the Marlins and Giants. He hit .294 with 5 homers and 10 RBI, and a .390 OBP in the playoffs, winning the NLCS MVP. His decrease in the homers in the regular season was due to a decrease in HR/FB from 9.9% to 7.5% (his lowest since '05). His career HR/FB is 10.4%. Around 7.7% is neutral, but obviously that mixes in power hitters and the Jason Kendall's of the world who have hit 20 homers since '02. Ross averaged 18 homers per season from '06 to '09, so I would expect Ross to hit right around 20 homers in 2011 (Bill James says 18). He'll almost definitely start somewhere. He has a .976 career Fld% in both left field and right field (.994 in centerfield where he has played the most games), but he has more experience in right field, so he'll probably start in right field. DeRosa lasted until May 8th in '10 before going down with a wrist injury. He's questionable for the start of spring training. He hit .268 with a .348 OBP, averaging 26 doubles, 22 homers, and 82 RBI from '08 to '09. But, DeRosa is 36, so that just might have been his late prime, and now it's over. DeRosa plays better in right field than left field, but of course he plays everywhere, and he still has a .991 Fld% in left field (compared to .997 in right), so he would do fine defensively. But, is he any better than Burrell? If you make him the starter in left field, than he can't be the utility player he's been his whole career! He could theoretically get starts in left field, second base, shortstop, and third base as a utility player (in which case you could insert DeRosa into the backups list for each of those positions). But, before we decide whether to commit DeRosa to left field, let's look at Burrell's stats. Burrell, 34 now, hit .252 with 21 doubles, 20 homers, 64 RBI, and a .348 OBP in 120 games between the Rays and Giants. He posted a slightly below-average .984 Fld% in left field with just below-average range, so he's not a liability defensively. I think that you don't know what you're going to get from DeRosa offensively after wrist surgery, so the Giants should start Ross in right and Burrell in left. DeRosa, if healthy, would still get close to 400 PA as a utilityman. The Giants will have to decide their alignment, but that's what I think. The backup in right field will be Nate Schierholtz. Schierholtz, who turned 27 on February 15th, hit .242 in '10 with 13 doubles, 3 homers, 17 RBI, 3 triples, 4 stolen bases, and a .311 OBP in 137 games (252 PA). In 109 games, but just 41 starts in right field, Schierholtz posted a .992 Fld% with 7 outfield assists. He's very good defensively. The Giants' alignment in left field and right field is a bit complicated, but they have three capable players in Ross, DeRosa, and Burrell who would be fine starters.
Centerfield:
Andres Torres appeared out of nowhere in 2010 to have a very good season as the Giants' starting centerfielder, hitting .268 with 43 doubles, 16 homers, 63 RBI, 8 triples, 84 runs, 26 stolen bases, and a .343 OBP in 139 games. He posted a .995 Fld% in 84 games in centerfield, and he was perfect in 70 combined games in left field and right field. Not only did he post great fielding percentages, but also, he showed great range. And he did all of this in his first full season in the majors at age 32. Torres spent 12 seasons in the minors (1998-2009), playing in just 164 major league games over that time, but the Giants finally gave him his first real chance, and he did not disappoint. Torres did have a .331 BAbip, but you have to root for this guy that he'll be able to keep that up. He also did have a 21% LD% in '10, so it's not that far-fetched. I'm sure that he'll be a good player both offensively and of course defensively again in 2011. Torres will be backed up by Aaron Rowand. Rowand, now 33, is not the same player anymore and he has no versatility (he hasn't played any defensive position besides centerfield since 2004), but he's signed for two more years at 24 million dollars per year. Rowand hit just .230 in '10, with 12 doubles, 11 homers, 34 RBI, 5 stolen bases, and just a .281 OBP in 105 games. At least he's still good defensively (1.000 Fld% in centerfield in '10 with decent range). Interestingly, Torres' possible future replacement is going to Triple-A in , 2011 Darren Ford. Ford hit .251 at Double-A Richmond with 20 doubles, 5 homers, 40 RBI, 9 triples, 37 stolen bases, and a .315 OBP in 113 games. Ford stole an incredible 198 bases from '06 to '08 at the three A levels (SS-A, Low-A, High-A). He posted a decent .985 Fld% in centerfield with good range. He could become a younger Torres with more speed and less power. With Rowand on the team, Ford couldn't even make the Giants if he hit .800 in spring training. Andres Torres is a nice story for the Giants, and that great story should continue in 2011.
Starting Rotation:
In 2010, Giants ace Tim Lincecum had one of the best off-years you will ever see, going 16-10 with a 3.43 ERA, and 231 K's (most in the NL) compared to 76 walks in 33 starts and 212.1 IP. He allowed 194 hits, 8.2 per 9, and 18 homers, 0.8 per 9. He had a increase in hits, homers, and walks allowed, while having a decrease in strikeouts compared to his Cy Young years of '08 and '09. Those factors caused his ERA to jump by nearly a full run. His BAbip went up to a career-high .315, so he was a bit unlucky, and his HR/FB went up to career-high 6.8%. If those numbers return down to his career averages of .301 and 5.2% respectively, Lincecum's ERA will certainly be back in the 2.00's. Lincecum was pretty lucky during his Cy Young years, having a 3.9 HR/FB, but he's certainly a good enough pitcher to still post an ERA in the 2.00's without being lucky. He was certainly good enough to lead the Giants to the championship, going 4-1 with a 2.43 ERA in the playoffs. He's certainly a top-end pitcher, and you have to remember that he won't even turn 27 until June and he's won two Cy Youngs. He's not as good with the bat, hitting just .104, but he had 5 RBI and 13 sac bunts. Lincecum is a very good ace for the Giants.
Matt Cain wasn't too shabby either, going 13-11 with a 3.14 ERA in '10 with 177 K's compared to 61 walks in 33 starts and 223.1 IP. He allowed 181 hits, a 7.3 H/9, and 22 homers, a 0.9 HR/9. He arguably had a better season than Lincecum (but, he didn't lead the league in any categories). He was lucky, allowing just a .254 BAbip, but then again, he allowed just a 17% LD%. In the playoffs, Cain was unbelievable, going 2-0 with a perfect 0.00 ERA in 3 starts. Cain is a solid pitcher, and he's young too, just 26 years old and already in his 6th season in the majors. He hit .106 with 1 RBI and 10 sac bunts. Cain is a great number 2 starter for the Giants.
How many good young pitchers do the Giants have? 28 year old southpaw Jonathan Sanchez had his best season in 2010, going 13-9 with a 3.07 ERA, and 205 K's compared to 96 walks (most in the NL) in 33 starts, 1 RA, and 193.1 IP. He allowed just 142 hits, just 6.6 per 9, best in the NL, but 21 homers, a 1.0 HR/9. Why did Sanchez improve so much from his 4.24 ERA in 2009? Well, for starters he had a .255 BAbip, easily the best of his career, but he wasn't lucky. He had a 17% LD%, and just a 60% IP% (league average 69%). He was pretty much unhittable, except when he did get hit, he got hit pretty hard, allowing 21 homers despite an 8.6 HR/FB that wasn't that much above average. Still, he's a good pitcher. He didn't do all that well in the playoffs, going 0-2 with a 4.05 ERA. He hit .138 with 3 RBI and 7 sac bunts. Sanchez is a very good Jackson is a very good third starter for San Francisco.
The youngest of this group, 21 year old Madison Bumgarner, might end up being the best of them (that's a tall order with Lincecum and Cain among the group). He had a very good rookie season, going 7-6 with a 3.00 ERA, and 86 K's compared to 26 walks in 18 starts and 111 IP. He allowed 119 hits, over a hit per inning at 9.6 per 9, and 11 homers, 0.9 per 9. How was he so successful with the bad hit and homer rates? An 81.7% strand rate (runners left on base at the end of innings). Based on that, you would think that Bumgarner isn't that good. But, he had a .314 BAbip despite a 17% LD%. A few too many ground balls went through the hole, but when they did, Bumgarner buckled down and got through the inning. When everything evens out, Bumgarner could be posting a 3.00 or less ERA for years to come. He went 2-0 with a 2.18 ERA in 4 postseason games, 3 starts. Maybe that's what he could be. Bumgarner hit .179 with 3 RBI and 3 sac bunts. Expect Madison Bumgarner to take another step forward in 2011.
Barry Zito is a unique pitcher in the Giants' rotation. He's the only one over 30 (he'll turn 33 in May). He's the only one making over 10 million dollars (18.5 million). He's the only one the couldn't manage a winning record in '10 (9-14). And, he's the only one that posted an ERA over 4.00 (4.15). Not a good combination at all. He hasn't managed a winning record or an ERA under 4.00 while on the Giants. He hasn't isn't even pitched a 200-inning season! In 2010, he came 2/3 of an inning short, pitching 199.1 innings. Putting all the stats together, Zito went 9-14 with a 4.15 ERA, and 150 K's compared to 84 walks in 33 starts, 1 RA, and 199.1 IP. He allowed 184 hits, an 8.3 H/9, and 20 homers, a 0.9 HR/9. He put up those numbers with a .286 BAbip, a 6.5 HR/FB, and a 19% LD%. He's just a league-average pitcher at this point in his career. But, he's the Giants' 5th starter, and a very good 5th starter at that. How many 5th starters post a low-4.00's ERA? He is a very good bunter- he hit just .118 with 2 RBI, but with 14 sac bunts. Zito is ridiculously overpaid, but he's a good 5th starter for the Giants.
Bullpen:
Jeremy Affeldt was one of the best middle relievers in baseball in 2009, posting a 1.73 ERA in 74 RA's. Different story in 2010. He posted a 4.14 ERA in 53 appearances. What was the difference? Well, first of all, the ERA's aren't the full story. In 2009, he went 2-2 with that 1.73 ERA, 55 K's, 31 walks, and an incredible 33 holds in 74 RA's and 62.1 IP. He allowed 42 hits, a 6.1 H/9, and 3 homers, a 0.4 HR/9. In 2010, he went 4-3 with a 4.14 ERA, 44 K's, 24 walks, just 7 holds, and 4 saves in 53 RA's and 50 IP. He allowed 56 hits, a 10.1 H/9, and 4 homers, a 0.7 HR/9. The obvious difference is hits allowed. His H/9 jumped by 4.0! Was it BAbip? Heck yes. His BAbip jumped from .250 to .356, from very lucky, to very unlucky. Let's say he has a .300 BAbip. Average out his H/9's from '09 and '10, and he'll have an 8.1 H/9, which is fine. But, was there any reason his BAbip went up so sharply? Yes, his ground ball rate. Ground balls are more likely to be fielded (not necessarily cleanly) than line drives and fly balls. In 2009, he had a 1.91 GB/FB ratio, a 3.09 GO/AO (ground out divided by air out) ratio, and a 30% DP% (percentage of double plays out of double play opportunities). In 2010, those numbers went down to 1.40, 1.97, and just 8% respectively. Can Affleldt get to his previous ground ball rates. That remains to be seen. At least his ERA wasn't that bad in 2010.
Sergio Romo was the exact opposite of Affeldt, posting his best numbers in 2010. Romo, who will turn 28 on March 4th, went 5-3 in '10 with a 2.18 ERA, 70 K's, just 14 walks, and 22 holds in 68 RA's and 62 IP. He allowed 46 hits, 6.7 per 9, but 6 homers, 0.9 per 9. The homers were his only real problem. Romo had a .265 BAbip, so you would think that he was a bit lucky, but that was not the case. He had such a low BABip because he had such a low LD%, 12%. Romo's LD% was an average 19% when he had a 3.97 ERA in 45 games, but it was 12% also in 2008 when he posted a 2.12 ERA in 29 games. The Giants have to hope that it's not an every-other-year kind of pattern and more like a trend he'll continue for at least the next couple of years. If so, Romo will be a very good reliever, continuously posting ERA's in the 2.00's. If not, expect an Affeldt-esque decline in 2011.
30 year old right-hander Santiago Casilla also had a great year for the Giants in 2010, going 7-2 with a 1.95 ERA, 56 K's, 26 walks, 11 holds and 2 saves in 52 RA's and 55.1 IP. He allowed 40 hits and 2 homers, which amount to a 6.5 H/9 and a great 0.3 HR/9 respectively. But, how did he have such a great year after posting a 4.76 ERA from '07 to '09 with the Athletics? First of all, we have to look at would expect a huge increase in ERA in 2011. From '07 to '09, he had a .323 BAbip, and he had a .346 BAbip from '08 to '09. His luck improved in 2010, so he had a much better year. But, there's a couple of problems for Casilla going forward. In 2010, he was lucky enough to have a 3.3 HR/FB. He could allow double as many homers (0.6 HR/9) if his HR/FB returns to neutral. His 60% IP% was outstanding, but he had a bad 21% LD%. Casilla was pretty hard to hit, but when he got hit, he got hit hard. But, lucky for him, a bunch of those line drives and fly balls landed in the gloves of fielders. Don't expect him to be so lucky in 2011. I would expect a jump in ERA of at least 1.00 to 2.95 for Casilla in 2011.
33 year old lefty Javier Lopez was a complete disaster in 2009, posting a 9.26 ERA. But, he had posted a 2.43 ERA in 2008, and he rebounded in a big way in 2010, posting a 4-2 record, 2.34 ERA, 38 K's, 20 walks, and 5 holds in 77 RA's between the Pirates and Giants, and 57.2 IP. He allowed 50 hits, a 7.8 H/9, and 2 homers, a 0.3 HR/9. Well, he had a .279 BAbip, compared to a .413 BAbip in 2009, and right along with his .280 BAbip in 2008. His IP% was a bit high at 73%, but that was not because of a high line drive rate (15% in '10), but because of a high ground ball rate (1.62 GB/FB, 2.27 GO/AO). Lopez has posted an ERA of 2.70 or lower every season in which he has posted a 1.50 or better GB/FB. He was lucky in terms of HR/FB (3.3% including 0.0% on the Giants) and XBH% (28%, just 8% on the Giants; league average 34%), but with a good ground ball rate he'll be fine. If not, expect an ERA of at least 3.00 if not higher (hopefully not 9.00).
29 year old right-hander Ramon Ramirez posted his 3rd straight season with an ERA under 3.00 in '10 going 1-3 with a 2.99 ERA, 46 K's (a 6.0 K/9), 27 walks (a 3.5 BB/9) 7 holds, and 3 saves in 69 RA's between the Red Sox and Giants and 69.1 IP. He allowed 52 hits, 6.8 per 9, but 7 homers, 0.9 per 9. Considering his high walk and homer rates, and his low strikeout rate, he needed every bit of his .223 BAbip. He did allow a good 17% LD%, but he allowed a 71% IP%, so that's worrisome. His luck will end in 2011, and I'm sure his streak of three straight years with an ERA under 3.00 will end as well.
And finally there is lefty Dan Runzler, who will turn 26 on March 30th. He went 3-0 in '10 with a 3.03 ERA, 37 K's, 20 walks, and 4 holds in 41 RA's and 32.2 IP. He allowed 29 hits and 1 homer, an 8.0 H/9 and a 0.3 HR/9 respectively. He had a .346 BAbip, so you have to expect him to improve in 2011. Not the ball got into play that much- he allowed just a 56% IP% and a 17% LD%. Look for Runzler to improve in 2011 and possibly become the most effective lefty in the Giants' bullpen.
Closer:
Brian Wilson, who will turn 29 on March 16th, had an incredible season as the Giant's closer in 2010, going 3-3 with a 1.81 ERA, 93 K's, just 26 walks, and an impressive 48 saves, tops in the NL in 70 RA's and 74.2 IP. He allowed 62 hits, a 7.5 H/9, and just 3 homers, a 0.4 HR/9. He was just plain outstanding. He also posted a perfect 0.00 ERA in 10 postseason relief appearances. He even was unlucky during the regular season, allowing a .314 BAbip, but he overcame it with by posting just a 60% IP% and a 15% LD%. He did allow just a 3.8 HR/FB, so maybe he'll blow an extra save or two in 2011, but he's still a great closer. Wilson is one of the best closers in baseball today.
Overview: http://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=3055834605645541006
The Giants have a pretty good lineup and an outstanding rotation. But, their bullpen is certainly a question mark, besides Wilson at the end. At least a couple of those guys in the bullpen will significantly worse ERA's, and can the Giants overcome that? For the most part, they should be able to. It's hard not to label the Giants as favorites in the NL West.
2010: 92-70, first in NL West, World Series Champions
Prediction: 91-71, 1st in NL West
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