The Rockies took a step back in '10, finishing 3rd in the NL West one year after winning the wild card and nearly stealing the division crown from the Dodgers in the final series of the year. Will they be back in the playoffs in 2011?
Catcher:
After Chris Iannetta hit just .228 in '09, the Rockies signed Miguel Olivo in the offseason. The Rockies let Olivo leave as a free agent (he was traded to the Blue Jays for a second before his 2011 option was declined, which I talked about here), giving Iannetta another chance. In a backup role in '10, Ianneta hit just .197 with 6 doubles, 9 homers, 27 RBI, and a .318 OBP in 61 games. He posted just a .985 Fld% and a 22% CS%. Besides the power, Iannetta was pretty terrible, even for a backup catcher. He was really unlucky, having just a .212 BAbip in '10. In '09, he had just a .245 BAbip. Iannetta's last good offensive season was 2008, when he hit .264 with 22 doubles, 18 homers, 65 RBI, and a .390 OBP in 107 games. He had a .311 BAbip that year. If his luck returns to normal, maybe Ianneta could get back to those numbers, at least the .264 BA, and probably the 18 homers as well. 2008 was also the only year where Iannetta got over 400 plate appearances, so maybe with extended time he would be able to sort himself out anyway. Iannetta had a .306 career BA in the minors including a .339 BA at Triple-A. I doubt he'll ever hit .300, but how does he own just a .234 BA in the majors? You have to think that Iannetta is better than he's played in the majors, and maybe in 2011, at age 28 (on April 8th), he finally proves that. His 2010 performance defensively was a bit of an aberration, considering he has a .994 career Fld% at catcher, although he does have a 22% career CS%. Maybe 2010 is when Iannetta finally brakes out.
1st base:
Longtime Rockie Todd Helton isn't the player he used to be. But, with 3 years left on his enormous contract, Helton is untradable and the Rockies will start him at first base for the 13th straight year. In 2010, despite playing his home games at Coors Field, Helton hit just .256 with 18 doubles, 8 homers, 37 RBI, but a .362 OBP in 118 games. Each of those numbers were career-lows for Helton for seasons in which he played in 85 or more games. He had a .307 BAbip, which is still slightly above-average, but the 2nd lowest of his career since 1998. Defensively, Helton posted a slightly below-average .992 Fld% at first base. At age 37, the end will come soon for Helton. If the Rockies could, they would no doubt acquire a first baseman, and Michael Young, who now wants out of Texas, might be that guy. But, for right now, the Rockies are stuck with the declining Helton at first base. Or are they? This offseason they signed Ty Wiggington to a 2-year deal (at age 33) with an option for a third year. Wiggington does play all over the field (he's played everyone except centerfield, pitcher, and catcher in the majors, and even caught a minor league game), but you have to think the Rockies will the 2010 All-Star a significant amount of at-bats (maybe around 400). Could some of those at-bats come at first base? Again, Helton isn't the same player and he's 37 years old, so he'll need quite a few days off. When they do give him days off, Wiggington should be the starter. Helton appeared in just 118 games in '10, and maybe he'll appear in even fewer in 2011. Wiggington will also get at-bats at 3rd base, and sparingly at the other positions. (Wiggington is below-average defensively across the board, but less so at 1st and 3rd.) Another utilityman that will play first base is Jose Lopez. With just 1 year left under team control, the Mariners decided to trade the 27 year old infielder and get a prospect for him, rather than keep him for 2011 and get a probably get a compensation draft pick. (The prospect the Mariners acquired, Chaz Roe, posted a 5.98 ERA at Triple-A in '10 and just one season on his minor league resume with an ERA under 4.00.) Lopez had a good season in '09, hitting .272 with 42 doubles, 25 homers, 97 RBI, but just a .303 OBP. Without even knowing the stats, I'm sure you can guess what I'm about to say. Lopez's low OBP finally caught up to his in 2010, when he did something few others have done: post a .270 OBP in 622 plate appearances (the league average was .319). He hit .239 with 29 doubles, 10 homers and 58 RBI. He was awful, posting a negative WAR. But, he did have just a .254 BAbip, so he isn't quite as bad as he seemed to be in '10. Also, considering his power, Lopez will be a great bench player for the Rockies. And that's just what his offensive contribution will be to the team. He has shown incredible range defensively at both 2nd and 3rd base, although his career Fld% is a bit below-average at 2nd. He's been average at first base and survived at shortstop. He'll be a really valuable bench player for the Rockies, considering his versatility and ability defensively, and his power. Tood Helton career is on a downward spiral from which it will never recover, but his backups at first base, Ty Wiggington and Jose Lopez, are good enough players that the Rockies will be able to keep Helton well rested while still receiving good production at first base.
Second base:
According to kffl.com, Eric Young was supposed to be traded to the Texas Rangers for Michael Young last week, but he failed his physical because of a stress fracture in his right tibia (in his leg) that he suffered in May and the Rangers pulled out of the deal. Let's discuss Eric Young. He's a speedster. Even if his doesn't miss any additional time, you still have to wonder- could his injury affect his speed? He stole 13 bases in 38 games after he came back from the injury. This is from a player who once stole 87 bases in the minors. Without speed, Young is nothing. The 25 year old owns just a .245 BA in his 81 game major league career, with a .318 OBP. He has just 1 homer. His only redeeming quality offensively is his speed: he has 21 stolen bases (10 CS). In the minors, he had 313 stolen bases in 7 seasons. He hit just 27 home runs. Great move by the Rangers not trading for Young. If he has lost a step, he'll be a nobody. Young is also a disaster defensively. He owns just a .963 Fld% at second base including just a .958 Fld% in '10 (league average: .985), and a .917 Fld% in left field (league average: .983) with bad range at both position despite his speed. (He has been perfect in 5 games in centerfield.) If Young lost a step, he won't even be a good bench player! Maybe Wiggington or Lopez will have to be pressed into duty as the starter at second base. The middle infield backup for the Rockies is 26 year old Jonathan Herrera. He hit .284 in '10, and he posted a .984 Fld% with unbelievable range, and he was perfect in less time at shortstop and 3rd base. He's a good backup. You have to be scared about the Rockies' situation at second base, although Wiggington or Lopez could certainly step in to be the starter.
Third base:
Ian Stewart, who will turn 26 on April 5th, is lined up to be the Rockies' starting 3rd baseman once again in '11. In 2010, Stewart hit .256 with 14 doubles, 18 homers, 61 RBI, and a .338 OBP in 121 games. Those are certainly decent stats, if not better. But, you have to remember that Stewart hit 25 homers in 2009. Why did he have the decrease of power in '10? Well, first of all he appeared in just 121 games in '10 compared to 147 in '09 (491 PA to 441), so he had less opportunities to hit home runs. Secondly, Stewart was incredibly lucky in '10. 16.3% of the fly balls he hit in '09 went for homers. In '10, his HR/FB went down to 11.9%. The HR/FB is certainly a big deal, but if he gets enough plate appearances and matures a bit as a hitter, I'm sure he'll hit 25 homers in '11. Stewart is also good defensively, and accordingly he posted a very good .964 Fld% at 3rd base with good range. He'll be backed up by Wiggington and Lopez and possibly 26 year old Chris Nelson, who hit .280 in '10, but still needs work defensively to be a utility infielder. Stewart is a decent player for the Rockies.
Shorstop:
The Rockies locked up Troy Tulowitzki at least until 2020 with an huge extension, 10 years, 163 million dollars (he had a previous extension until 2013, so the deal this offseason was for 2014-2020), and the Rockies even have an option for him in 2021. He's just 26 right now, and he's probably set for his entire career now. He better live up to expectations. Through the end of August in 2010, it didn't seem that Tulo was about to get a huge extension. He was hitting .319, but he had hit just 12 homers and driven in just 55 runs. Well, Tulowitzki changed that in September, hitting .303 with 15 homers and 40 RBI. On the season he hit .315 with 32 doubles, 27 homers, 95 RBI, 89 runs, 11 SB, and a .381 OBP in just 122 games because he missed from mid-June to late-July with a broken wrist. He was an All-Star, he finished 5th in the NL MVP voting, and he was a Silver Slugger, and a Gold Glover. Speaking of his defense, Tulowitzki posted a .984 Fld% at shortstop (league average: .971), with ridiculous range. He's an incredible player, both offensively and defensively, and will be worth every penny the Rockies pay him. He'll be backed up by Herrera, Wiggington, Lopez, and Nelson if he makes the team. The Rockies have one of the top two shortstops in baseball right now and will be set for many years to come.
Left Field:
After Matt Holliday was traded to the Oakland A's in November of '08, some player in the Rockies organization was going to have to step up to hold down the starting left field job. That player was Seth Smith. In 2007, Smith had a huge season, hitting .317 with 32 doubles, 17 homers, 82 RBI, 6 triples, 7 stolen bases, and a .381 OBP in 129 games at Triple-A, and hitting .625 with a triple in 8 major league at-bats. In '08, with Holliday still in the picture, Smith went back to Triple-A, and hit .323 with 16 doubles, 10 homers, 53 RBI, 11 stolen bases, and a .426 OBP in just 68 games. He forced his way onto the big league roster to stay by July, although he was also promoted for 19 games from late-May to mid-June. On the year in the majors, Smith hit .259 with 7 doubles, 4 homers, 15 RBI, and a .350 OBP in 67 games (123 PA). Those were decent numbers, but not good enough to force him into a starting job. But, in 2009, he was able to seize the starting job by mid July, and had a good season, hitting .293 with 20 doubles, 15 homers, 55 RBI, 4 triples, and a .378 OBP in 133 games (387 PA). In 2010, Smith was the Rockies' primary left fielder again, but he didn't do anywhere as well. He hit just .255 with 19 doubles, 17 homers, 52 RBI, 5 triples, and just a .314 OBP in 133 games again, but this time 398 PA. What was the reason for the difference in BA between '09 and '10 for Smith? Simple. The stat that should be your first guess if you've read all my previews so far, BAbip. In 2009, Smith was lucky enough to have a .324 BAbip. That was completely reversed in '10, when he was very unlucky, posting just a .256 BAbip. He was unlucky in '10 after being unlucky in '09. Let's look at some of his other stats to prove it. 21% of his balls in play were line drives in '09, 20% in '10. That's not enough to explain the .38 difference in BA of its own. His strikeout rate went down from 17.3% to 16.8%, so that's not why he posted a lower BA (his walk rate went down from 11.9% to 8.8%, explaining his lower OBP). He put more balls in play (70% to 66%), and more of his hits went for extra bases (10.3% to 10.1%), and home runs (4.3% to 3.9%) in '10 compared to '09. The big difference for Smith was his bad BAbip. He should be fine. With average luck he'll probably hit .280 in '11. The lower walk rate is much more of a problem. He has a 10.5 BB% in the majors for his career, but he had a 9.0% BB% in the minors (league average 8.7%). Could he be reverting back to his minor league ways? But, Smith had a 10.5 BB% in Triple-A. He just had a bad year, and starting pressing to raise his BA. A stat I neglected to mention before is that Smith swung at 44% of all pitches thrown against him in '10 compared to 40% in '09 (that's a big difference). That allowed him to put more balls in play (but he had a low BAbip which led to his low BA, but with the same BAbip as is '09 he would have raised his BA), but it lowered his walk rate by quite a bit. He changed his approach at the plate in a negative way. If the Rockies' coaches can get him back to his previous approach, he'll be fine. It won't hurt that he's entering his prime at age 28. Defensively, Smith has shown great range his entire career, but has just a league average .986 Fld% in the outfield (.988 in left field). His range is leading to a few errors. Maybe that will change in 2011 as well. Smith will be backed up by Ryan Spilborghs, and possibly Wigginton. (Carlos Gonzalez and Eric Young also play left field.) Spilborghs, 31, had a decent year offensively in '10, playing as a backup and starting in left field for a time, hitting .279 with 20 doubles, 10 homers, 39 RBI, and a .360 OBP in 134 games (388 PA). But, Spilborghs needed a .341 BAbip to hit .279, and he has another huge problem: in 2010, he struck, out 83 times, 21.4% of his plate appearances. By means of comparison, that's a higher percentage than Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira posted in '10, two players with a heck of a lot more power than Spilborghs. When his BAbip inevitably goes back down to neutral, Spilborghs will be weighed down by his strikeouts and post a low BA. In 2009, when he had a .288 BAbip, he hit just .241. Expect a BA closer to that from Spilborghs in '11. He isn't even good defensively, considering he owns a .979 career Fld% in the outfield with terrible range. He is actually is a really bad backup outfielder. He certainly won't start as many games as he did in '10 (78). Expect a bounce-back year from Rockies left fielder Seth Smith in '11.
Centerfield:
Speedster Derek Fowler is lined up to be the centerfielder for the Rockies again in '11. In 2010, the 24 year old hit .260 with 20 doubles, 6 homers, 36 RBI, 14 triples (tops in the NL), 13 stolen bases (8 CS), and a .347 OBP in 132 games. What's worrying is that he needed a .328 BAbip to hit .260. That's not good. Even though he was lucky, he was just an average player or worse across the board in 2010. He desperately needs to use his speed well, and while he used it to leg out 14 triples, he stole just 13 bases and was successful just 62% of the time. Why? He didn't go often enough to reverse the trend. On May 20th, Fowler had stolen 6 bases and been caught 4 times. From May 21st until the end of the month, Fowler didn't even attempt a stolen base, and compounding the problem, he was hitting just .216. He was then sent down to Triple-A, where he hit .340 in 27 games, but stole just one base (0 CS). After returning to the majors, Fowler hit .272, but he stole just 7 bases and was caught 4 times, although he did hit 11 of his 14 triples. Fowler didn't attempt to steal often enough. In 2010, he had 172 opportunities to steal a base (i.e. he was on 1st or 2nd base with an empty base in front of him), and he attempted to steal just 22 times, or 12.8%. In 2009, when he stole 27 bases and was caught 10 times, he went 18.9% of the time. Fowler has to be more aggressive on the bases. Defensively, Fowler posted a .996 Fld% in '10, which was 3rd in the NL, but despite his speed, he showed poor range. He'll be backed up by Spilborghs. The Rockies need a resurgence from Dexter Fowler on the basepaths.
Right field:
Carlos Gonzalez, another player who received a huge extension from the Rockies (7 years, 80 million dollars), went above and beyond all expectations in '10, finishing 3rd in the NL MVP voting and winning a Silver Slugger. Gonzalez, who turned 25 in October, hit .336 in '10, enough to win the batting title, with 34 doubles, 34 homers, 117 RBI, 9 triples, 111 runs, 197 hits (also tops in the NL), 26 stolen bases (8 CS), and a .376 OBP in 145 games. He also led the NL with 351 total bases. Was Gonzalez lucky in '10? Of course. He had a crazy .384 BAbip. Was he the luckiest man in the world? Actually, no. I'm sure some player had a higher BAbip in over 400 at-bats (and I'll probably cover him in one of the team previews), but what I mean is that Gonzalez earned his high BAbip. 27% of his balls in play were line drives, compared to the league average of 19%, and obviously liine drives are less likely to be fielded for an out. Neutralized, even in Coors Field, Gonzalez hit .318, so he was lucky, but not as lucky as it would seem from his .384 BAbip. Gonzalez also won a Gold Glove for his defensive work in '10. He posted a .996 Fld% in the outfield including a perfect 1.000 Fld% in 40 games in right field with 8 outfield assists, although he didn't show great range (but he did in '08 and '09, so maybe his poor range was just a fluke). Gonzalez is an outstanding five-tool player. He'll also be backed up by Spilborghs. The Rockies have another perennial MVP candidate in Carlos Gonzalez.
Starting rotation:
Headlining the Rockies' rotation is ace Ubaldo Jimenez. The 27 year old right-hander had the best first half of any pitcher in baseball in '10, going 15-1 with a 2.20 ERA, 113 K's, and just 46 walks in 18 starts and 127 IP. He pitched 3 complete games, including a no-hitter, and he allowed just 87 hits and 6 homers, a great 6.2 H/9 and a very good 0.4 HR/9. People were talking about whether Jimenez could become the first pitcher since Denny McLain in 1968 to win 30 games in a season. Jimenez was unable to even 20 games, going just 4-7 with a 3.80 ERA in the second half, although he did have 101 K's compared to 46 walks, and allowed 77 hits and 4 homers, a 7.3 H/9 and a 0.3 HR/9 in 15 starts and 104.2 IP. The difference for Jimenez was his control: he posted a 4.4 BB/9 in the second half compared ti a 3.3 BB/9 in the first half. Neither of those numbers are that great, but Jimenez was able to overcome it in the first half, but his walk rate reached a tipping point in the second half and he struggled. Another thing that led to Jimenez's decline in the second half was his BAbip: in the first half he was lucky enough to have a .252 BAbip, but when his BAbip went back to neutral at .303, he looked a lot more like a third starter than an ace. Still, you can't complain about his overall numbers. He went 19-8 with a 2.88 ERA, 214 K's compared to 94 walks, 4 complete games, and 2 shutouts (one no-hitter) in 31 starts and 221.2 IP. He allowed 64 hits, a 6.7 H/9, and 10 homers, a 0.4 HR/9. He led the NL in win-loss percentage (.704) in he finished 3rd in the NL Cy Young voting. I hate to say it, but Jimenez clearly isn't as a good as his 2010 numbers. Unless he drastically improves his control, I doubt he will ever post an ERA under 3.00 again without being extremely lucky again. In 2008, when he had a neutral .303 BAbip, Jimenez went 12-12 with a 3.99 ERA. Jimenez is better that- he has improved his walk rate and strikeout rate since then. In '09, when he had a .289 BAbip, Jimenez went 15-12 with a 3.57 ERA. Jimenez is better than that also- he has improved his walk rate and strikeout rate since then as well. So, what can we expect from Jimenez in '10? I would say something like a 3.15 ERA, which is still very good, but not great. Still, posting a 3.15 ERA is still really good. With the bat, Jimenez is terrible, considering he hit just .104 with 4 RBI and only 4 sac bunts (-0.6 WAR). Ubaldo Jimenez may never repeat his 2010 performance, but he's still a solid ace for the Rockies.
It may seem very strange to you that I'm placing 23 year old right-hander Jhoulys Chacin in the number two spot in the Rockies rotation ahead of several more experienced starters, but based an ERA, I really don't have a choice. Jhoulys (pronounced yo-LEES) Chacin had a very good rookie season, going 9-11 with a 3.28 ERA, and 138 K's compared to 61 walks in 21 starts, 7 RA's, and 137.1 IP. He allowed 114 hits, a 7.5 H/9, and 10 homers, a 0.7 HR/9. Maybe in another year, he would have gotten some Rookie of the Year situation, but the field was pretty stacked this year (scroll down to "NL Rookie of the Year Voting"). Chacin finished second in the Rockies' rotation in ERA behind Jimenez, so that's an accomplishment. Is he the real deal? Yes. Well, first of all, Chacin actually had a 2.98 ERA in 21 starts, so he was even better than he seemed (he had a 6.75 ERA in relief). Secondly, he allowed a .290 BAbip, which is more or less neutral. Chacin is the real deal. Maybe the Rockies have another player to extend. Different story with the bat for Chacin, considering he hit just .075 with 1 RBI and 4 sac bunts, but then again, he might have been messed up by 6 relief appearances in July. Chacin will pair with Jimenez at the top of the Rockies' rotation for years to come.
Despite just a 5.02 career ERA and a 4.31 ERA in '09 and '10, his best two years, the Rockies resigned 30 year old left-hander Jorge de la Rosa to a 2-year 19.5 million dollar contract with an 11 million dollar player option for 2013 (and if he accepts that, the Rockies own an 11 million dollar team option for him in 2014). De la Rosa also appeared in just 20 games in 2010 because of a torn left flexor band in his left middle finger on his pitching hand. When he was healthy, de la Rosa wasn't all that effective either, going 8-7 with a 4.22 ERA and 113 K's compared to 55 walks in 20 starts and 121.2 IP. He allowed 115 hits for a 7.8 H/9 ratio, but despite all the missed time, he allowed 15 home runs for a 1.1 HR/9. He did this all while having a .280 BAbip. That's not good. But, considering he pitches his home games in Coors, de la Rosa is a pretty good pitcher. He had a 3.78 neutralized ERA, so he can't be that bad. If de la Rosa suddenly has his first season with an ERA under 4.00 in '11, that would be great, but you have to realize that when de la Rosa posted a 4.38 ERA in '09, the Rockies went 20-12 in his starts (he was 16-9). Jorge de la Rosa is a decent pitcher for the Rockies, but only because you consider his environment. de la Rosa hit a career-high .171 in '10 with 4 RBI and 3 sac bunts. Jorge de la Rosa is just good enough to pitch to a winning record for the Rockies.
From 2002 to 2009, Aaron Cook, who recently turned 32, was a solid pitcher for the Rockies from 2002-2009, posting a 4.33 ERA (like I said for de la Rosa, that's not a great ERA, but it's good enough for Coors). In 2010, that changed. Cook went just 6-8 in '10 with a 5.08 ERA, 62K's, and 52 walks in 23 starts and 127.2 IP. He allowed 147 hits, more than a hit per inning at 10.4 per 9, although he did allow just 11 homers, a 0.7 HR/9. What's scary if you're not familiar with Cook is that he allowed a 10.4 H/9 despite just a .309 BAbip. But, you have to realize that he has a 10.3 career H/9 despite just a .307 BAbip. Almost every year, Cook's is able to get around all the hits he allows. Cook is successful because of how many ground balls he gives up. He owns a 1.37 ground ball to fly ball ratio for his career, and a 2.22 ground out to air out ratio. He was actually better in both of his categories in '10, allowing a 1.42 ground ball to fly ball ratio and a 2.29 ground out to air out ratio. The league averages for those stats are 0.79 and 1.07 respectively. So, Cook was pretty much pitching to contact the way he wants to pitch to contact, but the main problem for him was he walk rate. He owns just a 3.8 career K/9, which is minuscule, and his 4.4 K/9 in '10 actually tied his career-high. But, the problem for Cook in '10 was that he had a 3.7 BB/9, which isn't good in general, and which is obviously very bad for a pitcher was a low strikeout rate. His career BB/9 is 2.7, and that's where he needs to be. For his career, Cook has just a 1.37 K/BB ratio. The one season he had to 2 to 1 ratio was 2008, his lone All-Star appearance and his best season overall (16-9, 3.96). Even if he can't back to a 2 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio, Cook has to at least lower his walk rate. Cook had an interesting problem with 3-0 counts. Umpires are known to be most lenient with their strike zone on 3-0 counts, yet on 3-0 counts, Cook threw a strike just 51% of the time. For his career Cook has thrown a strike on 3-0 58% of the time, and 61% the past three seasons. Cook just has to challenge hitters a little bit more on 3-0 counts. Obviously, there are situations when you can't, but sometimes you might as well throw a decent pitch, and maybe the batter will miss-hit it. I'm sure Cook will be better on 3-0 counts in '11 and thus improve his walk rate. It's just a strange thing to suddenly decline in. If Cook can improve his walk rate, he'll get back to his 4.33 career ERA, and maybe a bit better. Cook will be a better pitcher in '11 for the Rockies.
There are three candidates for the final spot in the Rockies' rotation: the frontrunner, Jason Hammel, Felipe Paulino, and Esmil Rogers. Hammel came over to the Rockies in a trade in April of 2009, and the 28 year old right-hander had a good year for the Rockies, going 10-8 with a 4.33 ERA, 133 K's, and just 42 walks in 30 starts, 4 RA's, and 176.2 IP. His problems were that he allowed 203 hits, over a hit per inning at 10.3 per 9, and 17 homers, a 0.9 HR/9. In '10, allowing over a hit per inning again hurt him, and although he went 10-9, he posted a 4.81 ERA, striking out 141 and walking 47 in 30 starts and 177.2 IP. He allowed 201 hits, actually slightly less than '09 at 10.2 per 9, and 18 homers for the same 0.9 HR/9. Why did Hammel post an ERA nearly a half-run higher in '10 than in '09 considering he had such similar stats otherwise? It wasn't BAbip: no matter what I'm about to conclude, Hammel is due for a better year in '11 because he has allowed BAbip's of .332 and .335 the past 2 years. His line drive percentage remained exactly the same (22%), and so did his ground ball to fly ball ratio (0.87). His IP% (in-play percentage) actually went down from 73% to 71% and his XBH% (extra base hit percentage) went down from 8.4% to 7.1%. The only negative increases for Hammel were his walk rate (2.1 BB/9 to 2.4) and his HR/FB (percentage of fly balls allowed that went for homers), which increased from 6.2% to 6.6%. So, there goes all the other stats I've ever mentioned. His WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched) increased from 1.387 to 1.396, but that was because his walk rate increased. So, why was Hammel worse in '10 than '09? Quality start percentage (QS%). Hammel's QS% decreased from 50% to 47%. He just wasn't as consistent (if 50% counts as consistent at all). And why was that? The Rockies didn't give him as much run support (4.5 R/GS compared to 5.1 in '09). In 2009, Hammel allowed a .282 BA when the Rockies were ahead compared to .260 when the team was behind. He helped the Rockies get back into games. In '10, he allowed a .299 BA when ahead and .309 when behind, so it was harder for the Rockies to come back. And by the way, those declines from '09 to '10 are pure luck. Hammel's BAbip when ahead went up from .333 to .340 when ahead from '09 to '10, which isn't a huge increase, but his BAbip when behind shot up from .260 to .377, a ridiculous .117 increase (the difference between a .300 hitter and a .183 hitter). He should be fine in '10. He just got unlucky overall with his BAbip in both '09 and '10, and especially when he was behind in '10. You have to think that Hammel, if he has a league average .300 BAbip, will be able to at least get back to his 4.33 ERA, and I wouldn't be completely shocked if he snuck into the 3.00's at 3.99 or something. Hammel hit just .105 with 2 RBI, although he did have 5 sac bunts. You have to think Hammel will be the 5th starter for the Rockies once again in 2011, and he should definitely improve on his 2010 numbers.
Might as well go through Paulino and Rogers as well, even though they're undoubtedly underdogs for the 5th starter job. Paulino is a 27 year old right-hander, but even though he has a leg up on Hammel in terms of age, you can't like his 2010 numbers (or his 2009 numbers for that matter). In 2010, he went just 1-9 for the Astros, with a 5.11 ERA, 83 K's, and 46 walks in 15 starts, 4 RA's, and 91.2 IP. He allowed 95 hits, over a hit per inning, although he did allow just 4 home runs, 0.4 per 9. He doesn't seem like the kind of player you would trade your starting second baseman (Clint Barmes) for. But, the Rockies are looking past Paulino's 'regular' stats. He allowed a .340 BAbip in '10, so he was obviously very unlucky, and it also put him into more pressure situations. Maybe he could post an ERA in the 4.30 range like seemingly every other Rockies pitcher and get a few wins. Also, what was crazy in '10 was that Paulino allowed almost no hard contact. Just 14% of the balls in play against him were line drives (MLB average: 19%). Paulino will probably allow a few more homers in '10 considering he allowed just a 2.9% HR/FB (MLB average 7.5%), but if his BAbip returns to neutral, he'll still be a pretty decent pitcher. You have to think that even if Paulino doesn't win a starting job, the Rockies will use him on the major league roster in some capacity. Again, why else would they trade their starting second baseman? If he doesn't beat out Hammel for the 5th starter job, I'm sure he'll stick as a long reliever, although his if his brief relieving history (12.39 ERA in 13 appearances) is any indication, the Rockies have a problem. Paulino was actually a pretty good hitter in '10, hitting .292 with 3 sac bunts, although he did not drive in any runs. Paulino may not end up being the 5th starter for the Rockies, but you have to think he'll be on the major league roster.
If Paulino is an underdog for the 5th starter job, 25 year old Esmil Rogers is a 30-1 long-shot. After appearing in 1 game in 2009, Rogers spent extended time in the majors for the first time in his career, and it wasn't pretty. Rogers went 2-3 with a 6.13 ERA, 66 K's, 26 walks, and 2 holds in 8 starts, 20 RA's, and 72 IP. His main problem was that he allowed 94 hits, a really bad ratio of 11.8 per 9 inning, although he did allow just 5 homers, good for a 0.6 HR/9. Even though he had a 2.0 K/BB and he didn't allow too many homers, you just can't give up that many hits. But, why did he give up so many hits? He was about the unluckiest man in the world, giving up a .390 BAbip. But, part of the reason that Rogers had such a high BAbip was because 25% of the balls put into play against him were line drives, compared to the MLB average of 19%. Line drives are less likely to be caught, and since he allowed more line drives, he had more balls hit against him that were less likely to be caught, leading to his higher BAbip. Also, he had a 4.59 ERA and a 9.6 H/9 in the minors even though he had a .283 BAbip in the minors. (That's not including sac flies against him- I can't find that stat. To put this in perspective, if you took away sac flies from Rogers 2010 BAbip, he would have had an even worse .401 BAbip, so let's say he had a .293 BAbip in the minors. If someone knows where to find sac flies against a pitcher in the minors, please comment.) He also had a 5.75 ERA at Triple-A in '10. It seems pretty clear that Rogers needs more time in the minors. I doubt Rogers will make the Rockies out of spring training, although we may see him in the majors later in the year.
Bullpen:
Matt Belisle had a big year as a middle reliever for the Rockies in '11, going 7-5 with a 2.93 ERA, 91 K's, just 16 walks, 21 holds, and 1 save in 76 RA's and 92 IP. The 30 year old right-hander allowed 84 hits, an 8.2 H/9, and 7 homers, a 0.7 HR/9. The homers were his one problem; he allowed a .314 BAbip, so his H/9 will go down even more when his BAbip goes back down to neutral. He's a good reliever, although you have to worry a bit about the homers. Rafael Betancourt, who will turn 36 in April, went 5-1 for the Rockies in '10 with a 3.61 ERA, 89 K's, just 8 walks (good for an 11.13 K/BB that was better than Cliff Lee), 23 holds, and 1 save in 72 RA's in 62.1 IP. He allowed just 52 hits, 7.5 per 9, but 9 homers, which amounted to a terrible 1.3 HR/9. Betancourt was a bit unlucky in terms of HR/FB (9.9%), but he also allowed a 24% LD%, and some of those line drives were going to be home runs. If Betancourt can keep the homers down, he will be a good reliever (when he had a 0.4 HR/9 in 32 RA's for Colorado in '09, he had a great 1.73 ERA). Matt Lindstrom, a 31 year old reliever acquired from the Astros for a couple of prospects this offseason, had a decent year splitting the closer duties with Brandon Lyon, going 2-5 with a 4.39 ERA, 43 K's, 20 walks, 4 holds, and 23 saves (6 blown saves) in 58 RA's and 53.1 IP. He allowed 68 hits, a terrible ratio of 11.5 per 9, and 5 homers, a 0.8 HR/9. He actually had a 2.48 ERA on July 30th before collapsing to the tune of a 10.13 ERA the rest of the year, although he did allow a .385 ERA. Overall on the year, he had a crazy .362 BAbip, which was actually not so crazy when you consider he has a .340 career BAbip. But, maybe he will finally get lucky in '11 and allow a .300 BAbip and allow a 9.0 H/9 or better. He did manage an 8.9 H/9 from '07 to '08, so it's not that far-fetched. He also had a 3.11 ERA for '07 to '08, so maybe the Rockies could get that, especially because Lindstrom won't be closing. I would expect a significantly better ERA from Lindstrom in '11, maybe around 3.50. 26 year old left-hander Matt Reynolds had a nice big league debut in '10, going 1-0 with a 2.00 ERA, 17 K's, just 5 walks, and 2 holds in 21 RA's and 18 IP. He allowed just 10 hits, a 5.0 H/9, but 2 homers, 1.0 per 9. It was a very small sample size, and you also have to realize that Reynolds was ridiculously lucky, allowing just a .186 BAbip, although he did allow just a 61% IP% (MLB average 69%). Maybe Reynolds isn't really quite as good as he was in '10, but considering how low his IP% was, I would think he could still post an ERA in the 2.90 range. He also had a 2.62 ERA in 50 RA's at Triple-A in '10 despite a BAbip above .300 (I don't exactly what it is again because I don't know how many sac flies he allowed), so that might be his upside. Reynolds is a good lefty reliever for the Rockies. There are 4 other relievers competing for the final spot or the final two spots in the Rockies' bullpen: lefty Franklin Morales and righties Edgmer Escalona and Matt Daley. Morales is entering his third major league season at age 25. Through June 13th, Morales had a 3.21 ERA, but just like Lindstrom, he collapsed to end the year, posting a 9.20 ERA, although when he was sent down to the minors, he posted a 2.67 ERA in 24 RA's. On the year in the majors, Morales went 0-4 with a 6.28 ERA, 27 K's, 24 walks (certainly way too many), and 1 hold in 35 RA's and 28.2 IP. He allowed 28 hits, pretty much a hit per inning (8.8 H/9), but 5 homers, a really bad 1.6 HR/9 ratio. Even though Morales had a 6.28 ERA, you would think that at age 25, he deserves another chance, right? He just needs to work on his control! But, you could argue back that Reynolds has passed Morales and he'll be the lefty in the bullpen. I would compromise if Morales doesn't impress the Rockies in spring training: I would start Morales in the minors, let him straighten himself out, and then bring him up to the majors. I don't think Morales will start 2011 at the big league level. Escalona, 24, posted a 1.50 ERA in his 5-game big league debut in '10, but it was a different story for him in the minors. He went 3-5 with a 6.00 ERA, 74 K's, 32 walks, and 1 save (I can't find his minor league hold count) in 57 RA's and 69 IP. He allowed 66 hits, 8.6 per 9, but an unbelievable count of 17 home runs as a reliever, which amounted to a 2.2 HR/9 that was so terrible that even half of it(a 1.1 HR/9) would still be really bad for a reliever. It's 50-50 that Escalona even appears in 1 major league game in all of 2011 (well, as long as they don't just look at his major league stats). Daley appears to be the final member of the bullpen by default. Through June 10th, 2010, Daley had a 3.74 ERA. But, after that game, Daley went on the 60-day DL with a shoulder injury that sidelined him until September 10th. Overall in '10, Daley went 0-1 with a 4.24 ERA, 18 K's, 10 walks, and 7 holds in 28 RA's and 23.1 IP. He allowed 27 hits, over a hit per inning at 10.4 per 9, and 2 homers, 0.8 per 9. He had a .342 BAbip against him, so he was certainly unlucky, but he wasn't unlucky in any other regard. Maybe he could post an ERA in the 3.90 range or better with a .300 BAbip. But interestingly, when he had a .289 BAbip in 57 RA's in 2009, he had the same 4.24 ERA. But, the difference that year was that he had a 1.1 HR/9 that season. If he puts it all in '10, I am sure he could post an ERA in the 3.90 range. He's a decent reliever. The Rockies have a pretty good bullpen.
Bullpen:
Huston Street missed until late June in 2010 with a shoulder injury, but after that, the 2005 AL Rookie of the Year did pretty well, going 4-4 with a 3.61 ERA, 45 K's, just 11 walks, and 20 saves in 44 RA's and 47.1 IP. At age 27, Street now has a 3.00 career ERA, and 149 career saves, which are good numbers, but he has to manage to stay healthy. He has never saved 40 games, and he's only saved 35 games twice (2006 and 2009). Will 2011 finally be the season where Street saves 40 games? Street's response to his terrible August in 2010 is certainly encouraging. Through July 31st of 2010, Street had a 2.65 ERA, 6 saves, and just 1 blown save in 16 RA's. But then, he had an awful August. He posted just a 6.06 ERA, saving 7 games and blowing 3 in 16 games. But, he responded in a big way in September. He appeared in 12 games, posting a 1.93 ERA, saving 7 games and blowing just 1. Street overcame adversity, and was better because of it. Will he post a 1.93 ERA again in 2011 and save 40 games? After watching his September, maybe. (I would say a 2.70 ERA and exactly 40 saves). Street, when healthy, is a good closer for the Rockies. He better stay healthy and live up to his potential in 2011.
Overview:
The Rockies have a very good offense, headlined by perennial MVP candidates Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez. They're decent defensively. The rotation isn't great, but it's good enough to keep the offense in games, and more often than not, the offense will come through. The bullpen is good enough. The Rockies will contend, and even if they can't not off the defending champion Giants for the NL West crown, they will certainly contend for the wild card.
2010 record: 83-79
Prediction: 90-72, 2nd in NL West
After all my NL previews, I'll pick my wild card.
Monday, February 14, 2011
Monday, February 7, 2011
The Padres were the biggest surprise of the 2010 MLB season, losing the NL West division title to the Giants on the last day of the season. Will they be able to win the division in '11?
Catcher:
Each of the past three seasons, the Padres have given Nick Hundley a shot to win the starting catching job. He failed to unseat Josh Bard, Henry Blanco, and Yorvit Torrealba, and now, at 27 years old, it's make or brake for him. In order to become the starting catcher and keep the job, he's going to have to play much better offensively. His batting averages have improved every year in the majors, from .237 to .238 to .249, but come on! .249 is still a bad batting average. It can be overcome by a great on-base percentage or great power, but Hundley has done neither of those! In three seasons and 727 at-bats, he has 21 homers. That's not terrible power (it comes it 15 homers for a full season), but he has just a .302 career OBP. That's unacceptable. The problem for the Padres is that the last time Hundley had an OBP over .320 at any level for more than 5 games was 2007 at Double-A. That was his best minor league season. He hit .247 with 23 doubles, 20 homers, 72 RBI, and a .324 OBP in 101 games. He better get back to somewhere near that level, or the Padres will need to make a trade with Rob Johnson, who hit .191 for the Mariners in '10, serving as his primary backup. Hundley profiles as a backup catcher. He improved defensively every year in the minors and although he had a terrible 2009 defensively, he rebounded in '10 to post a .994 Fld% and a 29% CS%. (Johnson posted a .990 Fld% and led the AL with 9 passed balls, although he did post a 34% CS%.) The Padres desparately need Hundley to finally show his potential offensively.
First base:
Bye, bye A-Gon. After the big trade of Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox, the Padres now have Brad Hawpe lined up to start at first base. The Padres are replacing Gonzalez, who hit .298 with 31 homers, 101 RBI, and a .393 OBP with Hawpe, who hit .245 with 9 homers, 44 RBI, and a .338 OBP. Hawpe had an off-year in '10, but wow. From 2006 through 2009, Hawpe hit .288 with an average of 25 homers, 93 RBI, and a 384 OBP per season. But, that was at Coors. He's moving to the worst hitters park in baseball, Petco Park. Converted to Petco (using baseball-reference.com's neutralized batting tool), Hawpe would have hit just .265 and averaged 22 homers, 77 RBI, and a .358 OBP per season. In '10 for the 2010 Padres, Hawpe would have hit .237 with 8 homers, 37 RBI, and a .322 OBP. Hawpe, who will turn 32 in June, better get back to his converted numbers from his prime if he's going to be the full-time starter. But, what if the Padres platoon him with the recently acquired Jorge Cantu? Hawpe, a lefty, has hit .288 versus righties compared to .245 versus lefties in his career, although he actually hit better against lefties in '10. Cantu meanwhile, hits about the same against righties and lefties. Cantu had an off-year in '10, hitting just .256 with 11 homers, 56 RBI, and a .304 OBP, although off-years have been the story of his ca/reer. Starting from 2004, let's go through his RBI totals: 17, 117, 62, 13, 95, 100, 56. He'/s due for either another off year or a good season. If he's hitting well, I'm sure he could supplant Hawpe if Hawpe hits like he did in '10 again. Defensively, Hawpe has logged just 9 games at first, posting an 1.000 Fld%, while Cantu has logged 261 and posted a .995 Fld%. I doubt Kyle Blanks will get very much playing time at 1st whether there's a platoon or not. He hit just .157 in 33 games in '10, although he was bothered by an elbow injury. Offensively, the Padres have no idea what they're going to get from Hawpe and Cantu, so first base could be a position of strength for them once again, or it could be a complete train wreck.
Second base:
The Padres have quite a bit more certainty at second base, having signed four-time Gold Glover and two-time All-Star Orlando Hudson as a free agent. Hudson isn't much of a hitter, but his .268 BA and .338 OBP were both above the league average, so he's not that bad either. He has displayed 10 homer power ('04 to '07, although we certainly won't see him hit 10 homers at Petco) and 10 SB speed ('07, '10) in the past. Defensively, he has never posted a fielding percentage below league average his entire career, and not only does he make very few errors, but also he has displayed great range. He's the complete package defensively for a second baseman. He'll be backed up by Everth Cabrera and Eric Patterson. Cabrera managed to be way worse than Hudson offensively (.208 BA, .279 OBP, but 10 stolen bases), and he's a complete disaster defensively (.966 Fld%, and terrible range). Patterson hit just .214 in '10, although he did somehow hit 6 homers and 5 triples and steal 11 bases in '10, and he survived second base with just a slightly below-average .976 Fld% in 14 games, but he owns just a .958 career Fld% at second base. Good thing he also plays the outfield. Hudson was a great signing for the Padres and will be great fit for them, but the depth behind him isn't so great.
Third base:
I still remember when Padres third baseman Chase Headley made his 2008 debut (he played in 8 games in '07) versus the Yankees and hit his first major league home run off of Kyle Farnsworth in the second game of the three-game set. Headley hasn't quite become the star I thought he would after watching that game and looking at his crazy stats his previous two years in the minors (.321, 33 homers, 118 RBI, 131 runs, .417 OBP), but he's a good player. In '10, he hit .264 with 29 doubles, 11 homers, 58 RBI, 77 runs, 17 stolen bases (he had 6 TOTAL stolen bases in the minors), and a .327 OBP in 161 games. Headley's hitting prowess has been sapped by Petco Park. Neutralized, he hit .283 with 32 doubles, 12 homers, 65 RBI, 87 runs, 19 stolen bases, and a .348 OBP. That's a little better. I feel like Headley is poised for a breakout season this year at age 27 (he'll turn 27 in May). Defensively, Headley is outstanding. He posted a significantly above-average .966 Fld%, and baseball-reference.com gave him a 1.5 dWAR (defensive wins above replacement; his offensive WAR was 2.2). Headley will be backed up by Cantu. The Padres have a nice situation at third base with Chase Headley.
Shortstop:
Jason Bartlett, acquired this offseason in a trade with the Rays, had one of the biggest disparities from year to year I've ever seen from '09 to '10 without getting injured. Appearing in just 2 less games than in '09, Bartlett hit .66 lower than '09 in '10 (.254), with 10 less homers (4), 19 less RBI (47), 19 less runs (71), 41 less hits (119), 19 less stolen bases (11), and a .65 lower OBP (.324). Wow. And it was his age-30 season! Isn't that when you're supposed to break out? Well, breaking out at 29 isn't that uncommon, but flaming out at 30? What confuses me even more is Bartlett's '08 to '09 disparity, specifically the jump from 1 homer to 14 (he did appear in 9 less games). Fine, he broke out, but 14 times as many homers? 14 homers undoubtedly doesn't jump out you to tell you that a player used PED's, but 14 times as many homers? People thought Jose Bautista was using steroids when his amount of homers jumped 4.15 times from '09 to '10 (13 to 54). Less than a third of Bartlett's jump! Fine, 54 homers and 14 homers are a huge didfference, but come on! Bartlett went from 1 homer to 14 homers, back down to 4 homers. Something's up. Let's try to use stats to reconcile this. Well, first of all, Bartlett's BA went down .66 because his BAbip went down .65 from .364 to .299. OK, that makes sense. But, homers are pretty much unaffected by BAbip: 95% or more of homers are impossible to make a play on (i.e. rob). Well, Bartlett's ground ball to fly ball ratio (GB/FB) went up (that's a bad thing) from 0.53 to 0.78. He didn't hit as many fly balls (155 compared to 128 according to b-r), so not as many went out for home runs. That's my only possible explanation. I don't think the Padres were very smart to acquire Bartlett and it was a great move by the Rays to trade him because he won't hit .320, probably not .300 again unless he starts putting up .360 BAbip's again. From '09 to '10, Bartlett improved from a .962 Fld% to a .977 Fld% (both of which are above-average), although that was because he displayed worse range in '10. He's a slightly above-average fielder. He'll be backed up by Everth Cabrera. I really don't think Bartlett will a good player for the Padres in '11.
Left Field:
Ryan Ludwick will be starting for the Padres in left field in 2011. He put up decent overall numbers offensively in 2010, hitting .251 with 27 doubles, 17 homers, 69 RBI, and a .325 OBP in 136 games, but after being traded to the Padres at the trade deadline, he hit just .211 with 6 homers and 26 RBI in 59 games. That has to be somewhat worrisome. Even though his overall numbers were OK, remember that he hit .265 with 22 homers and 97 RBI in '10, and .299 with 37 homers and 119 RBI in '09. A stat that most illustrates his decline is his slugging percentage: he slugged .591 in '08, .447 in '09, and then .418 in '10. But then check out his OPS's in those years: .966 to .775 to .743. Interestingly, although Ludwick was very lucky in '08 to the tune of a .342 BAbip, his BAbip stayed around the same in '09 and '10, .296 and .297. The big difference between '09 and '10 for Ludwick was strikeouts: he struck out 121 times in '10 compared to 106 times in '09. Ludwick just had a little bit off an off-year in '10. The past four years, he has averaged a .272 BA with 22 homers and 83 RBI. I think he should be able to get closer to that in '11. Ludwick will turn 33 in July, but pending an injury, the worst we'd see from him would probably be a repeat of his 2010 stats. Ludwick has been mostly a right fielder defensively in his career, but he does have a .995 Fld% in 108 games in left field including 79 startss and he has displayed good range. Ludwick will be backed up by Chris Denorfia and Aaron Cunningham. Denorfia actually displayed quite a bit of pop as a backup outfielder, hitting .271 with 15 doubles, 9 homers, 36 RBI, 8 stolen bases, and a 335 OBP in 99 games. Considering how well Denorfia plays left field and right field (he has never made an error in 109 games), it sort of makes you wonder why Denorfia has never been a starting outfielder for any team, but you have to realize that Denorfia hasn't hit double-digit home runs at any level since 2005 between Double-A and Triple-A in the Reds organization. Unfortunately for him at age 30, he'll probably never get a shot. He's certainly a fine backup outfielder, though. Cunningham is a bit of a different story. First of all, he will turn 25 in April. Secondly, unlike Denorfia, he was considered a top prospect as soon as entering the 2009 season (he's ranked as the A's 3rd best prospect here). Cunnigham as been traded from the White Sox to the D-backs to the A's to the Padres, but he was solid pretty much the whole way through, averaging a .311 BA, 14 homers, 58 RBI, 18 stolen bases, and a .383 OBP per season. He then followed that up by hitting just .251 with 17 doubles, 7 homers, 45 RBI, just 2 stolen bases, and a .333 OBP in 80 games in '09 at Triple-A, although he did hit .288 with 12 doubles, a homer, 15 RBI, and a .331 OBP in the majors. You have to wonder if the Padres will pretty much end his development by keeping him in the majors as the 5th outfielder. Defensively, Cunningham is a mystery. In '08, Cunningham posted just a .933 Fld% in 18 games in left field. In '09, he posted just a .913 Fld% in 16 games in right field, although he did play errorless ball in 9 games in left field. Then in '10, he somehow played perfectly in 23 games in right field, 27 in left, and even 2 in center. He has just a .977 career Fld% in the minors in the outfield, so I guess he's not great defensively, but we'll have to see a bigger sample size in the majors. Overall for left field, the Padres have a nice situation with Ludwick being a pretty good player and with good depth behind him.
Centerfield:
Marlins castaway Cameron Maybin is lined up to be the Padres' centerfielder in '10. They're hoping he finally lives up to his potential. Maybin was a top-10 prospect by Baseball America entering the '07 to '09 seasons, but owns just a .246 BA in the majors with just a .313 OBP. Maybin has now played in 168 games, about 1 full season, and hit .246 with 24 doubles, 13 homers, 45 RBI, 5 triples, 135 hits, 93 runs, 19 stolen bases, and a .313 OBP. Those are decent numbers, but he hasn't been able to put it together for a whole season, with his career high in games being 82 in 2010. Turning 24 in April, Maybin is at a career crossroads: he has to prove that he will be an effective big league regular. One stat I omitted from Maybin's career total was his 172 strikeouts. That almost forces him into a comparison with Austin Jackson, the AL's leader with 170 strikeouts. In Jackson's rookie season in 2010, he hit .293 with 34 doubles, 4 homers, 41 RBI, 10 triples, 181 hits, 103 runs, 27 stolen bases, and a .345 OBP in 151 games. They're pretty far off, but I want to focus on the difference in BA: Maybin hit just .246 while Jackson hit .293 even though Maybin had just two more strikeouts. Maybe Maybin just isn't a great hitter for average, but there's something going on. Maybin has hit just .138 with 2 strikes in his career, and just .136 with the pitcher ahead. Jackson hit .193 with 2 strikes in '10, and .246 with the pitcher ahead. Jackson's averages, .193 and .246, certainly aren't great averages, but they're a heck of a lot better than .138 and .136. Even though Jackson struck out so many times as well, he wasn't completely helpless with 2 strikes, getting 66 of his 181 hits. Maybin was helpless, getting just 42 hits. Jackson struck out a lot of times, 25.2% of his plate appearances, but Maybin struck out even more, 28.2% of his plate appearances. If Jackson had struck out 28.2% of the time, his BA would have been quite a bit closer to Maybin. The Padres need Maybin to take a major step forward, and that has to begin with better performance with two strikes. Will Maybin even completely fix this problem? I would doubt it. He'll strikeout a lot if he remains a starter. But, if he can get that strikeout percentage down to Jackson's, that would really make him a much better player. I think we'll see some improvement from Maybin in '11. Defensively, Maybin has a .987 career Fld% in centerfield, which is a little bit below average, but he's shown incredible range and he should be fine defensively. He will be backed up by Denorfia and Patterson. 2011 will be a very important season for Maybin, and the Padres better hope he can step up.
Right field:
28 year old Princeton alum Will Venable is going to be the Padres' right fielder again in '11 after a nice performance in '10. He hit .245 with 11 doubles, 13 homers, 51 RBI, 7 triples, 29 stolen bases, and a .324 OBP in 131 games. He posted a .980 Fld% in right field with good range, and a .984 Fld% in the outfield overall. He's a solid player. Venable's big problem is hitting lefties as a lefty hitter. He hit just .154 against them with only 2 home runs. If Venable's struggles against lefties continue, maybe we could see Denorfia make some starts in right against lefties. Denorfia does have a .290 career BA against lefties. Hawpe and Cunningham will also back up Venable. Venable is a pretty good player in right field for the Padres, at least against righties.
The Padres' amazing pitching staff in 2010 nearly carried them to the playoffs. Are they still THAT good?
Starting Rotation:
Mat Latos, at just 22 years old, blossomed into the Padres' ace in 2010. He went 14-10 with a 2.92 ERA and 189 K's compared to just 50 walks in 31 starts and 184.2 IP. He was just plain incredible. His 9.2 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, and 150 hits allowed (7.6 H/9) are all amazing. He also allowed just 16 homers, 0.8 per 9 innings. But, was he really dominant, or was he just very lucky? Well, somewhat. He had a .275 BAbip, which was below the league average, but not by that much. Accordingly, his FIP (fielding independent pitching equivlent of ERA) was 3.00, which is still very good. Even if his ERA goes up to 3.00, that's only a 0.08 difference! He did suffer a freak injury while sneezing, but that shouldn't be a problem in the future. At the plate, Latos hit just .111 with no walks, but he did hit 2 doubles and a homer and drive in 3 runs. Mat Latos is a really good pitcher and he'll be the ace of the Padres for years to come.
Southpaw Clayton Richard had a good year for the Padres in '10, going 14-9 with a 3.75 ERA and 153 K's in 33 starts and 201.2 IP. But, he had 78 walks, 3.5 per 9 innings, a less than 2.0 K/BB ratio, and 206 hits allowed, more than a hit per inning. He did allow just 16 homers, 0.7 per 9. The homer rate was great, but considering how many walks and hits Richard allowed, was he lucky to have a 3.75 ERA? Somewhat at least. He had a .315 BAbip, so he was unlucky, but in high leverage situations (high pressure situations such as bases loaded with two outs), he allowed just a .244 BA and .285 BAbip. He was lucky when it mattered most. The good news for Richard is that when you put his BAbip and BAbip in high leverage situations back to neutral, he'll probably have around the same ERA. Hitting-wise, Richard hit .148 with 5 RBI, although he did have just a .220 BAbip. Richard is a good 2nd or 3rd starter.
There are five good candidates for the last 3 spots in the Padres' rotation: Wade LeBlanc, Tim Stauffer, Cory Luebke, ex-Red Aaron Harang, and ex-Yankee Dustin Moseley.
LeBlanc, a 26 year old lefty, was OK as the Padres' 5th starter in '10, going 8-12 with 4.25 ERA and 110 K's compared to 51 walks in 25 starts, a relief appearance, and 146.1 IP. His big problems though, were that he allowed 157 hits, over a hit per inning at 9.7 hits per 9 innings, and 24 homers, a bad ratio of 1.5 per 9. He was a little bit unlucky, allowing a .309 BAbip. LeBlanc was strangely bad against lefties, allowing a .308 BA (although lefties did have a .353 BAbip against him). Despite all the baserunners, LeBlanc was pretty good at limiting the damage, allowing a .237 BAA with RISP and just a .214 BA with 2 outs and RISP. LeBlanc was a pretty great hitting pitcher in '10, hitting .295 with an RBI. LeBlanc is a solid candidate for a starting job.
Tim Stauffer, a right-hander who will turn 29 in June, worked primarily as a reliever in '10 due to an over-abundance of starting pitchers, and he did well, going 6-5 with a 1.85 ERA, 61 K's, and 24 walks in 25 RA's (relief appearances), 7 starts, and 82.2 IP. (He somehow did not record a hold.) He posted a 1.83 ERA as a starter and a 1.87 ERA as a reliever. He gave up just 65 hits, 7.1 per 9, and 3 homers, good for an incredible 0.3 HR/9 ratio. But, he was considerably lucky, allowing a .266 BAbip. But, in 2009, Stauffer allowed a pretty much average .294 BAbip and posted a 3.58 ERA. The Padres would certainly take that. Stauffer hit .176 in '10 with 2 RBI. Stauffer had a great year in '10 due to great luck, but his success in 2009 showed that he's a fine pitcher even with average luck. Stauffer is almost a lock for a spot in the Padres' rotation.
Right-hander Cory Luebke, who will turn 26 in March, made his major league debut in '10, going 1-1 with a 4.08 ERA in 3 starts and a RA. He had a great year in 2010 in the minors between Double-A and Triple-A, going 10-1 with a 2.68 ERA, 88 K's, and 29 walks in 17 starts, 2 RA's, and 114 IP. He allowed just 83 hits, a great ratio of 6.6 per 9, and 8 homers, 0.6 per 9. But, he allowed just a .234 BAbip at Double-A and a .225 BAbip at Triple-A. Going through his minor league seasons, at three levels, Low-A in '08, High-A in '09, and Double-A in '09 he had BAbip's relatively close to .300. Leubke got away with the High BAbip's at Low-A in '08 and High-A in '09, still posting ERA's of 2.34 and 2.40, but he posted a 3.70 ERA at Double-A in '09. If Double-A could beat him when he got unlucky, obviously major league hitters could. Luebke wasn't so lucky when he hit, hitting just .171 with an RBI. I would be scared to have Luebke in my major league rotation right now.
This offseason , the Padres signed former Reds ace Aaron Harang to a one-year contract worth 3.5 million dollars. with an option for 2012. Seems like quite a risk. Harang's last season with an ERA under 4.00 was 2007, and he'll turn 33 in May. In '10, Harang went 6-7 with a 5.32 ERA, 82 K's, and 38 walks in 20 starts, 2 RA's, and 111.2 IP. He allowed 139 hits, a scary ratio of 11.2 per 9 innings, and 16 homers, 1.3 per 9. He would seem to be a pitcher worth staying away from. But, you have to notice his .342 BAbip in '10. That's unlucky. His FIP was 4.95, not great, but not that bad either. How bad can Harang be? He has a 4.33 ERA. The Padres have to hope that Harang will be able at least to get back to that in '11, especially because he'll pitch half his games at Petco Park. Harang hit .135 with 2 RBI in '10. The Padres are hoping that Harang's luck improves, and while he may never be an ace again, they're hoping he can at least be a decent pitcher. Pending a complete collapse, Harang will be in the Padres rotation.
Dustin Moseley made a halfway decent comeback from a variety of injuries in 2010 for the Yankees, going 4-4 with a 4.96 ERA, 33 K's, and 27 walks in 9 starts, 7 RA's, and 65.1 IP. He allowed just above a hit per inning, giving up 66 hits, and he allowed 13 homers, 1.8 per 9. He was pretty bad, and he way lucky enough to have a .261 BAbip. He doesn't seem like a good rotation candiadate to me. Maybe he could fit in the bullpen though. He has a 4.65 career ERA in the bullpen, including a 4.56 ERA and 4 holds in 38 relief appearances in '07, his only year spent primarily in relief. He signed a major league contract, so we should see him in the majors as a reliever. Unless he dominates in spring training, he will not be a starting pitcher for the Padres in '11.
It seems pretty clear to me that Stauffer, LeBlanc, and Harang should be 3-4-5 in the Padres rotation.
Bullpen:
Luke Gregerson, who will turn 27 in May, had a great year in '10 as a workhorse setup man, going 4-7 with a 3.22 ERA, 89 K's, just 18 walks, an astounding 40 holds, and 2 saves in 80 RA's and 78.1 IP. Look at these stats: amazing 10.2 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9, a decent 0.9 HR/9 ratio, and a ridiculous 5.4 H/9 ratio. Wow. He gave up just a few too many homers (8), but other than that he was great. One slight problem: he was the luckiest man alive with a .217 BAbip. Neutralized, he had a 3.84 ERA. Expect something along those lines in 2011. He'll still appear in a ton of games, though. Mike Adams, who will turn 33 in July, was even better than Gregerson, going 4-1 with a 1.76 ERA, 73 K's, just 23 walks, and 37 holds in 70 RA's and 66.2 IP. His ratios were a 9.9 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 0.3 HR/9, and a 6.5 H/9. THe homer ratios were the big difference in ERA between Gregerson and Adams. Was he lucky? Of course, but not as lucky as Gregerson, which is a good thing. He had .271 BAbip against him. Neutralized, he had a 1.94 ERA in '10. Who in the world wouldn't take that? He's a great reliever. And Joe Thatcher may have been better than Adams! Thatcher, a 29 year old lefty, went 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA, 45 K's, just 7 walks, and 12 holds in 65 RA's and 35 IP. He did pitch a lot less innings than Adams and Gregerson. He allowed just 23 hits, 5.9 per 9, and only 1 homer, good for 0.3 HR/9. He also had a .275 BAbip, which is less lucky than Adams. Lefties hit just .197 against him (righties .172). He's a great lefty specialist. Ernesto Frieri, who will turn 26 in July, is another great reliever. He went 1-1 with a 1.71 ERA, 41 K's, 17 walks, and 7 holds in 33 RA's and 31.2 IP. He allowed 18 hits, 5.1 per 9, and 2 homers, 0.6 per 9. He was very lucky, having just a .235 BAbip against him. Neutralized, he had a 2.10 ERA, but who can complain? The Padres' relievers were very lucky, and even if their luck evens out, they'll still have a shutdown bullpen. Might be the best bullpen I've ever seen.
Closer:
Slamming the door for the Padres is Heath Bell. In '10, he went 6-1 with a 1.93 ERA, 86 K's, 28 walks, and 47 saves, an impressive number, in 67 RA's and 70 IP. He allowed 56 hits, 7.2 per 9, and just 1 homer, good for an unbelievable 0.1 HR/9. And do you know the craziest part of any of his stats? He was unlucky in '10, allowing a .329 BAbip. Wow. He's just plain ridiculous.
Overview:
The Padres are a pretty bad hitting team, especially with Adrian Gonzalez gone, but they are very good defensively, and have great pitching. Their rotation may not be quite as great as it was in 2010, but their bullpen is incredible and should carry the team. The pitching will keep this team in contention, maybe even getting them to the postseason as the wild card or even NL West champs if the Giants and Rockies slip up. If this team can win those 2-1 games, they'll go far. But, the lack of quality hitting will cost them.
2010 Record: 90-72
Prediction: 88-74, 3rd in NL West
The Padres will contend if... they have some sort of offense, Stauffer and LeBlanc step up, Harang has a bounce-back year, and if the bullpen remains untouchable.
Catcher:
Each of the past three seasons, the Padres have given Nick Hundley a shot to win the starting catching job. He failed to unseat Josh Bard, Henry Blanco, and Yorvit Torrealba, and now, at 27 years old, it's make or brake for him. In order to become the starting catcher and keep the job, he's going to have to play much better offensively. His batting averages have improved every year in the majors, from .237 to .238 to .249, but come on! .249 is still a bad batting average. It can be overcome by a great on-base percentage or great power, but Hundley has done neither of those! In three seasons and 727 at-bats, he has 21 homers. That's not terrible power (it comes it 15 homers for a full season), but he has just a .302 career OBP. That's unacceptable. The problem for the Padres is that the last time Hundley had an OBP over .320 at any level for more than 5 games was 2007 at Double-A. That was his best minor league season. He hit .247 with 23 doubles, 20 homers, 72 RBI, and a .324 OBP in 101 games. He better get back to somewhere near that level, or the Padres will need to make a trade with Rob Johnson, who hit .191 for the Mariners in '10, serving as his primary backup. Hundley profiles as a backup catcher. He improved defensively every year in the minors and although he had a terrible 2009 defensively, he rebounded in '10 to post a .994 Fld% and a 29% CS%. (Johnson posted a .990 Fld% and led the AL with 9 passed balls, although he did post a 34% CS%.) The Padres desparately need Hundley to finally show his potential offensively.
First base:
Bye, bye A-Gon. After the big trade of Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox, the Padres now have Brad Hawpe lined up to start at first base. The Padres are replacing Gonzalez, who hit .298 with 31 homers, 101 RBI, and a .393 OBP with Hawpe, who hit .245 with 9 homers, 44 RBI, and a .338 OBP. Hawpe had an off-year in '10, but wow. From 2006 through 2009, Hawpe hit .288 with an average of 25 homers, 93 RBI, and a 384 OBP per season. But, that was at Coors. He's moving to the worst hitters park in baseball, Petco Park. Converted to Petco (using baseball-reference.com's neutralized batting tool), Hawpe would have hit just .265 and averaged 22 homers, 77 RBI, and a .358 OBP per season. In '10 for the 2010 Padres, Hawpe would have hit .237 with 8 homers, 37 RBI, and a .322 OBP. Hawpe, who will turn 32 in June, better get back to his converted numbers from his prime if he's going to be the full-time starter. But, what if the Padres platoon him with the recently acquired Jorge Cantu? Hawpe, a lefty, has hit .288 versus righties compared to .245 versus lefties in his career, although he actually hit better against lefties in '10. Cantu meanwhile, hits about the same against righties and lefties. Cantu had an off-year in '10, hitting just .256 with 11 homers, 56 RBI, and a .304 OBP, although off-years have been the story of his ca/reer. Starting from 2004, let's go through his RBI totals: 17, 117, 62, 13, 95, 100, 56. He'/s due for either another off year or a good season. If he's hitting well, I'm sure he could supplant Hawpe if Hawpe hits like he did in '10 again. Defensively, Hawpe has logged just 9 games at first, posting an 1.000 Fld%, while Cantu has logged 261 and posted a .995 Fld%. I doubt Kyle Blanks will get very much playing time at 1st whether there's a platoon or not. He hit just .157 in 33 games in '10, although he was bothered by an elbow injury. Offensively, the Padres have no idea what they're going to get from Hawpe and Cantu, so first base could be a position of strength for them once again, or it could be a complete train wreck.
Second base:
The Padres have quite a bit more certainty at second base, having signed four-time Gold Glover and two-time All-Star Orlando Hudson as a free agent. Hudson isn't much of a hitter, but his .268 BA and .338 OBP were both above the league average, so he's not that bad either. He has displayed 10 homer power ('04 to '07, although we certainly won't see him hit 10 homers at Petco) and 10 SB speed ('07, '10) in the past. Defensively, he has never posted a fielding percentage below league average his entire career, and not only does he make very few errors, but also he has displayed great range. He's the complete package defensively for a second baseman. He'll be backed up by Everth Cabrera and Eric Patterson. Cabrera managed to be way worse than Hudson offensively (.208 BA, .279 OBP, but 10 stolen bases), and he's a complete disaster defensively (.966 Fld%, and terrible range). Patterson hit just .214 in '10, although he did somehow hit 6 homers and 5 triples and steal 11 bases in '10, and he survived second base with just a slightly below-average .976 Fld% in 14 games, but he owns just a .958 career Fld% at second base. Good thing he also plays the outfield. Hudson was a great signing for the Padres and will be great fit for them, but the depth behind him isn't so great.
Third base:
I still remember when Padres third baseman Chase Headley made his 2008 debut (he played in 8 games in '07) versus the Yankees and hit his first major league home run off of Kyle Farnsworth in the second game of the three-game set. Headley hasn't quite become the star I thought he would after watching that game and looking at his crazy stats his previous two years in the minors (.321, 33 homers, 118 RBI, 131 runs, .417 OBP), but he's a good player. In '10, he hit .264 with 29 doubles, 11 homers, 58 RBI, 77 runs, 17 stolen bases (he had 6 TOTAL stolen bases in the minors), and a .327 OBP in 161 games. Headley's hitting prowess has been sapped by Petco Park. Neutralized, he hit .283 with 32 doubles, 12 homers, 65 RBI, 87 runs, 19 stolen bases, and a .348 OBP. That's a little better. I feel like Headley is poised for a breakout season this year at age 27 (he'll turn 27 in May). Defensively, Headley is outstanding. He posted a significantly above-average .966 Fld%, and baseball-reference.com gave him a 1.5 dWAR (defensive wins above replacement; his offensive WAR was 2.2). Headley will be backed up by Cantu. The Padres have a nice situation at third base with Chase Headley.
Shortstop:
Jason Bartlett, acquired this offseason in a trade with the Rays, had one of the biggest disparities from year to year I've ever seen from '09 to '10 without getting injured. Appearing in just 2 less games than in '09, Bartlett hit .66 lower than '09 in '10 (.254), with 10 less homers (4), 19 less RBI (47), 19 less runs (71), 41 less hits (119), 19 less stolen bases (11), and a .65 lower OBP (.324). Wow. And it was his age-30 season! Isn't that when you're supposed to break out? Well, breaking out at 29 isn't that uncommon, but flaming out at 30? What confuses me even more is Bartlett's '08 to '09 disparity, specifically the jump from 1 homer to 14 (he did appear in 9 less games). Fine, he broke out, but 14 times as many homers? 14 homers undoubtedly doesn't jump out you to tell you that a player used PED's, but 14 times as many homers? People thought Jose Bautista was using steroids when his amount of homers jumped 4.15 times from '09 to '10 (13 to 54). Less than a third of Bartlett's jump! Fine, 54 homers and 14 homers are a huge didfference, but come on! Bartlett went from 1 homer to 14 homers, back down to 4 homers. Something's up. Let's try to use stats to reconcile this. Well, first of all, Bartlett's BA went down .66 because his BAbip went down .65 from .364 to .299. OK, that makes sense. But, homers are pretty much unaffected by BAbip: 95% or more of homers are impossible to make a play on (i.e. rob). Well, Bartlett's ground ball to fly ball ratio (GB/FB) went up (that's a bad thing) from 0.53 to 0.78. He didn't hit as many fly balls (155 compared to 128 according to b-r), so not as many went out for home runs. That's my only possible explanation. I don't think the Padres were very smart to acquire Bartlett and it was a great move by the Rays to trade him because he won't hit .320, probably not .300 again unless he starts putting up .360 BAbip's again. From '09 to '10, Bartlett improved from a .962 Fld% to a .977 Fld% (both of which are above-average), although that was because he displayed worse range in '10. He's a slightly above-average fielder. He'll be backed up by Everth Cabrera. I really don't think Bartlett will a good player for the Padres in '11.
Left Field:
Ryan Ludwick will be starting for the Padres in left field in 2011. He put up decent overall numbers offensively in 2010, hitting .251 with 27 doubles, 17 homers, 69 RBI, and a .325 OBP in 136 games, but after being traded to the Padres at the trade deadline, he hit just .211 with 6 homers and 26 RBI in 59 games. That has to be somewhat worrisome. Even though his overall numbers were OK, remember that he hit .265 with 22 homers and 97 RBI in '10, and .299 with 37 homers and 119 RBI in '09. A stat that most illustrates his decline is his slugging percentage: he slugged .591 in '08, .447 in '09, and then .418 in '10. But then check out his OPS's in those years: .966 to .775 to .743. Interestingly, although Ludwick was very lucky in '08 to the tune of a .342 BAbip, his BAbip stayed around the same in '09 and '10, .296 and .297. The big difference between '09 and '10 for Ludwick was strikeouts: he struck out 121 times in '10 compared to 106 times in '09. Ludwick just had a little bit off an off-year in '10. The past four years, he has averaged a .272 BA with 22 homers and 83 RBI. I think he should be able to get closer to that in '11. Ludwick will turn 33 in July, but pending an injury, the worst we'd see from him would probably be a repeat of his 2010 stats. Ludwick has been mostly a right fielder defensively in his career, but he does have a .995 Fld% in 108 games in left field including 79 startss and he has displayed good range. Ludwick will be backed up by Chris Denorfia and Aaron Cunningham. Denorfia actually displayed quite a bit of pop as a backup outfielder, hitting .271 with 15 doubles, 9 homers, 36 RBI, 8 stolen bases, and a 335 OBP in 99 games. Considering how well Denorfia plays left field and right field (he has never made an error in 109 games), it sort of makes you wonder why Denorfia has never been a starting outfielder for any team, but you have to realize that Denorfia hasn't hit double-digit home runs at any level since 2005 between Double-A and Triple-A in the Reds organization. Unfortunately for him at age 30, he'll probably never get a shot. He's certainly a fine backup outfielder, though. Cunningham is a bit of a different story. First of all, he will turn 25 in April. Secondly, unlike Denorfia, he was considered a top prospect as soon as entering the 2009 season (he's ranked as the A's 3rd best prospect here). Cunnigham as been traded from the White Sox to the D-backs to the A's to the Padres, but he was solid pretty much the whole way through, averaging a .311 BA, 14 homers, 58 RBI, 18 stolen bases, and a .383 OBP per season. He then followed that up by hitting just .251 with 17 doubles, 7 homers, 45 RBI, just 2 stolen bases, and a .333 OBP in 80 games in '09 at Triple-A, although he did hit .288 with 12 doubles, a homer, 15 RBI, and a .331 OBP in the majors. You have to wonder if the Padres will pretty much end his development by keeping him in the majors as the 5th outfielder. Defensively, Cunningham is a mystery. In '08, Cunningham posted just a .933 Fld% in 18 games in left field. In '09, he posted just a .913 Fld% in 16 games in right field, although he did play errorless ball in 9 games in left field. Then in '10, he somehow played perfectly in 23 games in right field, 27 in left, and even 2 in center. He has just a .977 career Fld% in the minors in the outfield, so I guess he's not great defensively, but we'll have to see a bigger sample size in the majors. Overall for left field, the Padres have a nice situation with Ludwick being a pretty good player and with good depth behind him.
Centerfield:
Marlins castaway Cameron Maybin is lined up to be the Padres' centerfielder in '10. They're hoping he finally lives up to his potential. Maybin was a top-10 prospect by Baseball America entering the '07 to '09 seasons, but owns just a .246 BA in the majors with just a .313 OBP. Maybin has now played in 168 games, about 1 full season, and hit .246 with 24 doubles, 13 homers, 45 RBI, 5 triples, 135 hits, 93 runs, 19 stolen bases, and a .313 OBP. Those are decent numbers, but he hasn't been able to put it together for a whole season, with his career high in games being 82 in 2010. Turning 24 in April, Maybin is at a career crossroads: he has to prove that he will be an effective big league regular. One stat I omitted from Maybin's career total was his 172 strikeouts. That almost forces him into a comparison with Austin Jackson, the AL's leader with 170 strikeouts. In Jackson's rookie season in 2010, he hit .293 with 34 doubles, 4 homers, 41 RBI, 10 triples, 181 hits, 103 runs, 27 stolen bases, and a .345 OBP in 151 games. They're pretty far off, but I want to focus on the difference in BA: Maybin hit just .246 while Jackson hit .293 even though Maybin had just two more strikeouts. Maybe Maybin just isn't a great hitter for average, but there's something going on. Maybin has hit just .138 with 2 strikes in his career, and just .136 with the pitcher ahead. Jackson hit .193 with 2 strikes in '10, and .246 with the pitcher ahead. Jackson's averages, .193 and .246, certainly aren't great averages, but they're a heck of a lot better than .138 and .136. Even though Jackson struck out so many times as well, he wasn't completely helpless with 2 strikes, getting 66 of his 181 hits. Maybin was helpless, getting just 42 hits. Jackson struck out a lot of times, 25.2% of his plate appearances, but Maybin struck out even more, 28.2% of his plate appearances. If Jackson had struck out 28.2% of the time, his BA would have been quite a bit closer to Maybin. The Padres need Maybin to take a major step forward, and that has to begin with better performance with two strikes. Will Maybin even completely fix this problem? I would doubt it. He'll strikeout a lot if he remains a starter. But, if he can get that strikeout percentage down to Jackson's, that would really make him a much better player. I think we'll see some improvement from Maybin in '11. Defensively, Maybin has a .987 career Fld% in centerfield, which is a little bit below average, but he's shown incredible range and he should be fine defensively. He will be backed up by Denorfia and Patterson. 2011 will be a very important season for Maybin, and the Padres better hope he can step up.
Right field:
28 year old Princeton alum Will Venable is going to be the Padres' right fielder again in '11 after a nice performance in '10. He hit .245 with 11 doubles, 13 homers, 51 RBI, 7 triples, 29 stolen bases, and a .324 OBP in 131 games. He posted a .980 Fld% in right field with good range, and a .984 Fld% in the outfield overall. He's a solid player. Venable's big problem is hitting lefties as a lefty hitter. He hit just .154 against them with only 2 home runs. If Venable's struggles against lefties continue, maybe we could see Denorfia make some starts in right against lefties. Denorfia does have a .290 career BA against lefties. Hawpe and Cunningham will also back up Venable. Venable is a pretty good player in right field for the Padres, at least against righties.
The Padres' amazing pitching staff in 2010 nearly carried them to the playoffs. Are they still THAT good?
Starting Rotation:
Mat Latos, at just 22 years old, blossomed into the Padres' ace in 2010. He went 14-10 with a 2.92 ERA and 189 K's compared to just 50 walks in 31 starts and 184.2 IP. He was just plain incredible. His 9.2 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, and 150 hits allowed (7.6 H/9) are all amazing. He also allowed just 16 homers, 0.8 per 9 innings. But, was he really dominant, or was he just very lucky? Well, somewhat. He had a .275 BAbip, which was below the league average, but not by that much. Accordingly, his FIP (fielding independent pitching equivlent of ERA) was 3.00, which is still very good. Even if his ERA goes up to 3.00, that's only a 0.08 difference! He did suffer a freak injury while sneezing, but that shouldn't be a problem in the future. At the plate, Latos hit just .111 with no walks, but he did hit 2 doubles and a homer and drive in 3 runs. Mat Latos is a really good pitcher and he'll be the ace of the Padres for years to come.
Southpaw Clayton Richard had a good year for the Padres in '10, going 14-9 with a 3.75 ERA and 153 K's in 33 starts and 201.2 IP. But, he had 78 walks, 3.5 per 9 innings, a less than 2.0 K/BB ratio, and 206 hits allowed, more than a hit per inning. He did allow just 16 homers, 0.7 per 9. The homer rate was great, but considering how many walks and hits Richard allowed, was he lucky to have a 3.75 ERA? Somewhat at least. He had a .315 BAbip, so he was unlucky, but in high leverage situations (high pressure situations such as bases loaded with two outs), he allowed just a .244 BA and .285 BAbip. He was lucky when it mattered most. The good news for Richard is that when you put his BAbip and BAbip in high leverage situations back to neutral, he'll probably have around the same ERA. Hitting-wise, Richard hit .148 with 5 RBI, although he did have just a .220 BAbip. Richard is a good 2nd or 3rd starter.
There are five good candidates for the last 3 spots in the Padres' rotation: Wade LeBlanc, Tim Stauffer, Cory Luebke, ex-Red Aaron Harang, and ex-Yankee Dustin Moseley.
LeBlanc, a 26 year old lefty, was OK as the Padres' 5th starter in '10, going 8-12 with 4.25 ERA and 110 K's compared to 51 walks in 25 starts, a relief appearance, and 146.1 IP. His big problems though, were that he allowed 157 hits, over a hit per inning at 9.7 hits per 9 innings, and 24 homers, a bad ratio of 1.5 per 9. He was a little bit unlucky, allowing a .309 BAbip. LeBlanc was strangely bad against lefties, allowing a .308 BA (although lefties did have a .353 BAbip against him). Despite all the baserunners, LeBlanc was pretty good at limiting the damage, allowing a .237 BAA with RISP and just a .214 BA with 2 outs and RISP. LeBlanc was a pretty great hitting pitcher in '10, hitting .295 with an RBI. LeBlanc is a solid candidate for a starting job.
Tim Stauffer, a right-hander who will turn 29 in June, worked primarily as a reliever in '10 due to an over-abundance of starting pitchers, and he did well, going 6-5 with a 1.85 ERA, 61 K's, and 24 walks in 25 RA's (relief appearances), 7 starts, and 82.2 IP. (He somehow did not record a hold.) He posted a 1.83 ERA as a starter and a 1.87 ERA as a reliever. He gave up just 65 hits, 7.1 per 9, and 3 homers, good for an incredible 0.3 HR/9 ratio. But, he was considerably lucky, allowing a .266 BAbip. But, in 2009, Stauffer allowed a pretty much average .294 BAbip and posted a 3.58 ERA. The Padres would certainly take that. Stauffer hit .176 in '10 with 2 RBI. Stauffer had a great year in '10 due to great luck, but his success in 2009 showed that he's a fine pitcher even with average luck. Stauffer is almost a lock for a spot in the Padres' rotation.
Right-hander Cory Luebke, who will turn 26 in March, made his major league debut in '10, going 1-1 with a 4.08 ERA in 3 starts and a RA. He had a great year in 2010 in the minors between Double-A and Triple-A, going 10-1 with a 2.68 ERA, 88 K's, and 29 walks in 17 starts, 2 RA's, and 114 IP. He allowed just 83 hits, a great ratio of 6.6 per 9, and 8 homers, 0.6 per 9. But, he allowed just a .234 BAbip at Double-A and a .225 BAbip at Triple-A. Going through his minor league seasons, at three levels, Low-A in '08, High-A in '09, and Double-A in '09 he had BAbip's relatively close to .300. Leubke got away with the High BAbip's at Low-A in '08 and High-A in '09, still posting ERA's of 2.34 and 2.40, but he posted a 3.70 ERA at Double-A in '09. If Double-A could beat him when he got unlucky, obviously major league hitters could. Luebke wasn't so lucky when he hit, hitting just .171 with an RBI. I would be scared to have Luebke in my major league rotation right now.
This offseason , the Padres signed former Reds ace Aaron Harang to a one-year contract worth 3.5 million dollars. with an option for 2012. Seems like quite a risk. Harang's last season with an ERA under 4.00 was 2007, and he'll turn 33 in May. In '10, Harang went 6-7 with a 5.32 ERA, 82 K's, and 38 walks in 20 starts, 2 RA's, and 111.2 IP. He allowed 139 hits, a scary ratio of 11.2 per 9 innings, and 16 homers, 1.3 per 9. He would seem to be a pitcher worth staying away from. But, you have to notice his .342 BAbip in '10. That's unlucky. His FIP was 4.95, not great, but not that bad either. How bad can Harang be? He has a 4.33 ERA. The Padres have to hope that Harang will be able at least to get back to that in '11, especially because he'll pitch half his games at Petco Park. Harang hit .135 with 2 RBI in '10. The Padres are hoping that Harang's luck improves, and while he may never be an ace again, they're hoping he can at least be a decent pitcher. Pending a complete collapse, Harang will be in the Padres rotation.
Dustin Moseley made a halfway decent comeback from a variety of injuries in 2010 for the Yankees, going 4-4 with a 4.96 ERA, 33 K's, and 27 walks in 9 starts, 7 RA's, and 65.1 IP. He allowed just above a hit per inning, giving up 66 hits, and he allowed 13 homers, 1.8 per 9. He was pretty bad, and he way lucky enough to have a .261 BAbip. He doesn't seem like a good rotation candiadate to me. Maybe he could fit in the bullpen though. He has a 4.65 career ERA in the bullpen, including a 4.56 ERA and 4 holds in 38 relief appearances in '07, his only year spent primarily in relief. He signed a major league contract, so we should see him in the majors as a reliever. Unless he dominates in spring training, he will not be a starting pitcher for the Padres in '11.
It seems pretty clear to me that Stauffer, LeBlanc, and Harang should be 3-4-5 in the Padres rotation.
Bullpen:
Luke Gregerson, who will turn 27 in May, had a great year in '10 as a workhorse setup man, going 4-7 with a 3.22 ERA, 89 K's, just 18 walks, an astounding 40 holds, and 2 saves in 80 RA's and 78.1 IP. Look at these stats: amazing 10.2 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9, a decent 0.9 HR/9 ratio, and a ridiculous 5.4 H/9 ratio. Wow. He gave up just a few too many homers (8), but other than that he was great. One slight problem: he was the luckiest man alive with a .217 BAbip. Neutralized, he had a 3.84 ERA. Expect something along those lines in 2011. He'll still appear in a ton of games, though. Mike Adams, who will turn 33 in July, was even better than Gregerson, going 4-1 with a 1.76 ERA, 73 K's, just 23 walks, and 37 holds in 70 RA's and 66.2 IP. His ratios were a 9.9 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 0.3 HR/9, and a 6.5 H/9. THe homer ratios were the big difference in ERA between Gregerson and Adams. Was he lucky? Of course, but not as lucky as Gregerson, which is a good thing. He had .271 BAbip against him. Neutralized, he had a 1.94 ERA in '10. Who in the world wouldn't take that? He's a great reliever. And Joe Thatcher may have been better than Adams! Thatcher, a 29 year old lefty, went 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA, 45 K's, just 7 walks, and 12 holds in 65 RA's and 35 IP. He did pitch a lot less innings than Adams and Gregerson. He allowed just 23 hits, 5.9 per 9, and only 1 homer, good for 0.3 HR/9. He also had a .275 BAbip, which is less lucky than Adams. Lefties hit just .197 against him (righties .172). He's a great lefty specialist. Ernesto Frieri, who will turn 26 in July, is another great reliever. He went 1-1 with a 1.71 ERA, 41 K's, 17 walks, and 7 holds in 33 RA's and 31.2 IP. He allowed 18 hits, 5.1 per 9, and 2 homers, 0.6 per 9. He was very lucky, having just a .235 BAbip against him. Neutralized, he had a 2.10 ERA, but who can complain? The Padres' relievers were very lucky, and even if their luck evens out, they'll still have a shutdown bullpen. Might be the best bullpen I've ever seen.
Closer:
Slamming the door for the Padres is Heath Bell. In '10, he went 6-1 with a 1.93 ERA, 86 K's, 28 walks, and 47 saves, an impressive number, in 67 RA's and 70 IP. He allowed 56 hits, 7.2 per 9, and just 1 homer, good for an unbelievable 0.1 HR/9. And do you know the craziest part of any of his stats? He was unlucky in '10, allowing a .329 BAbip. Wow. He's just plain ridiculous.
Overview:
The Padres are a pretty bad hitting team, especially with Adrian Gonzalez gone, but they are very good defensively, and have great pitching. Their rotation may not be quite as great as it was in 2010, but their bullpen is incredible and should carry the team. The pitching will keep this team in contention, maybe even getting them to the postseason as the wild card or even NL West champs if the Giants and Rockies slip up. If this team can win those 2-1 games, they'll go far. But, the lack of quality hitting will cost them.
2010 Record: 90-72
Prediction: 88-74, 3rd in NL West
The Padres will contend if... they have some sort of offense, Stauffer and LeBlanc step up, Harang has a bounce-back year, and if the bullpen remains untouchable.
2011 MLB Preview: Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers were a huge disappointment in 2010, finishing under .500 and going through the Manny and McCourt fiascoes. Will they get back to contending in 2011?
Catcher: After non-tendering Russell Martin, the Dodgers resigned Rod Barajas to be their starting catcher (they acquired him off waivers in late August of 2010). In 2010 between the Mets and Dodgers, Barajas hit .240 with 14 doubles, 17 homers, 47 RBI, and a .284 OBP in 99 games, missing time with an oblique injury. The power numbers were OK, but his OBP was .043 lower than the league average. That's unacceptable. But, Barajas did have just a .236 BAbip, and accordingly, he hit .252 with a .299 OBP neutralized, which is a bit better. Defensively, Barajas posted a .996 Fld% with just 3 passed balls, but he posted just a 15% CS%. Although being a Yankee fan, I am biased, but Martin is definitely a better player than Barajas both offensively and defensively when healthy, particularly in OBP (.365 career OBP and .347 in '10) and CS% (31% for his career and 39% in '10). Martin will be backed up by Dioner Navarro, who hit just .194 in '10 and posted just a .986 Fld%, but he allowed no passed balls and posted a 39% CS%. If all else fails, the Dodgers could call up A.J. Ellis, who turns 30 in April. He has literally no power (career high in homers in the minors was 8 in '07), but he did hit .278 with 16 RBI and a .363 OBP in '10, and post a .996 Fld%, just 1 passed ball, and a 28% CS% in 44 games. I don't really trust Rod Barajas offensively or defensively for the Dodgers.
First base:
James Loney has never been a prototypical first baseman for the Dodgers. His career high in homers in the major leagues was 15 in 96 games in '07, especially strange because he's appeared in 158 or more games each of the past 3 seasons. Loney is much more of a gap-hitter. In '10, he hit .267 with 41 doubles (5th in the NL), just 10 homers, 88 RBI, 10 SB, and a .329 OBP in 161 games. Defensively, Loney is outstanding. He posted a .997 Fld% at first base in '10 with outstanding range. Loney will turn 27 in May. Overall, Loney is a pretty good first baseman, just not what you'd expect. He'll be backed up by John Lindsey, and Jay Gibbons, who we'll talk about as a right fielder. Lindsey is a career minor leaguer who finally made his big league debut in '10 at age 33 after 16 seasons in the minors, although he hit just .083. He was ridiculous in the minors in '10, hitting .353 at Triple-A with 41 doubles, 25 homers, 97 RBI, and a .400 OBP in 107 games. He's pretty much a disaster defensively, considering he posted just a .989 Fld% at first base in the minors in '10 (league average .993) and has just a .987 career Fld% at the position in the minors. The Dodgers don't get typical production out of their first baseman, Loney, but he's still a good player.
Second base:
The Dodgers were able to lure Juan Uribe away from the divison-rival and defending champion Giants by giving him a 3 year deal to him at age 30. Uribe is an enigma of a hitter. In '10, he hit 24 homers and drove in 85 runs. Sounds good, right? Well, he hit .248 with just a .310 OBP. For his career, he has hit .256 with 15 homers and 60 RBI per season, but just a .300 OBP. Accordingly, Uribe has never been an All-Star in 10 major league seasons. He's an OK player, but his OBP really holds him down. He managed a lower OBP than Mark Reynolds in 2010 (.320), and Reynolds hit just .198! He's a decent player, and he'll never be anything more. Defensively, he managed above-average fielding percentages at shortstop (.984), third base (.957), and second base (1.000), although he did have below average range at short. Uribe has a great .990 career Fld% at second for his career. Uribe will be backed up by the Dodgers' utility infielder, Jamey Carroll. Carroll, for a utilityman, is a surprisingly good hitter. He hit .291 in '10 with 15 doubles, 0 homers, 23 RBI, 12 stolen bases, and even a .379 OBP in 133 games. If he had any power, he'd be a great player. In 2006 for the Rockies, Carroll hit .300 with 23 doubles, 5 homers, 36 RBI, 5 triples, 84 runs, 10 SB, and a .377 OBP in 136 games. Carroll's real problem was that he couldn't make the majors until he was 28 years old, spending 7 full seasons in the minors. He'll be 37 on February 18th. Anyway, Carroll has a ridiculous .992 career Fld% at second base, including an NL leading .995 Fld% in that 2006 season. In 158 career games at shortstop, he has an unbelievable .989 career Fld% (Derek Jeter's .989 Fld% in '10 led the AL), although he is below average at third base (.945 Fld%) and left field (.971 Fld%). He's still a great utility player. Uribe is just a decent player because of his low OBP, so the Dodgers have just a decent situation at second base, although Carroll is a great backup.
Third Base:
There have been off-years, then there has been Casey Blake's 2010. It doesn't sound so bad- he hit .248 with 28 doubles, 17 homers, 64 RBI, 56 runs, and a .320 OBP in 146 games. He had a .407 slugging percentage. Baseball-Reference gave him a 1.6 offensive WAR. Compare to that to his '09 season. That year, he hit .280 with 25 doubles, 18 homers, 79 RBI, 84 runs, a .363 OBP, and a .468 slugging percentage in 139 games. Look at the difference in OPS: .727 in '10 versus .832 in '09. The .727 was below-average while the .832 was significantly above-average. Wow. Blake's BAbip did decrease from .327 to .305, but that wasn't the real reason that his numbers went down so much. In 2009, Blake struck out 116 times, 20.5% of his plate appearances. In 2010, he struck out 138 times, 24.2% of his plate appearances. That's a big difference. In addition, his walk rate decreased from 11.2% to 8.4%. The reason for the increase in strikeout rate and decrease in walk rate in '10 was that Blake hit just .194 whenever he was behind in the count, compared to .259 in '09. Will Blake rebound in '10? Well, first of all he's 37 years old. That's isn't a very common age for a bounce-back year. He wasn't unlucky, so it's not like his bound for a bounce-back year anyway. I doubt he'll ever get back to his '09 numbers. So, what should we expect from him? Well, Baseball-Reference has a list of 'Comparable Batters through 36' for Blake. Let's go through the players on the list. Melvin Mora has fallen off a cliff the past 2 seasons, hitting a combined 15 homers after mashing 23 in his age 36 season. He is still around, though. Hector Lopez was done after a bad age 36 season, hitting just .214. So were Aaron Boone, Charlie Hayes, Glenallen Hill, and Gary Ward. Bill Robinson had one more decent season. Kevin Millar lasted one more season. Jim Hickman was a backup in his final season at age 37. Jay Payton appeared in 20 games in '10 at age 37 (hitting .343) and he's currently a free agent. Blake is signed for at least one more year (there's an team option with a buyout for 2012), so I'm guessing he'll turn out like Mora has. He'll be a shadow of his former self. If he completely collapses, the Dodgers could slide Uribe to third and put in Carroll at second. But, what about the Dodgers' 3rd base prospects in the minors? With 2011 possibly being Blake's last year, it's hard not to mention some prospects that could step in for him in 2011 if necessary. The Dodgers have three 3rd base prospects who profile as at least decent players: Russ Mitchell, Pedro Baez, and Jorky Infante. Martin had a big league cup of coffee in '10, hitting .143 with a .140 OBP (he was thrown out trying to stretch, which raises your BA, but lowers your OBP). But, his first two major league hits were homers, and he drove in 4 runs. Defensively, he posted just a .895 Fld% at 3rd base (2 errors in 19 chances, and a .958 Fld% at 3 games first base, although he was perfect in left field in 3 games. You can throw out everything I just said because it's such a small sample size. Let's talk about Martin's stats at Triple-A in '10. He hit .315 with 38 doubles, 23 homers, 87 RBI, 97 runs, and a .363 OBP in 127 games. Defensively, he posted a .958 Fld% at third base, which would have been above-average in the 2010 NL. Those are obviously great stats, and Martin wasn't even on Baseball America's top 30 prospects list for the Dodgers in '10! He had a breakthrough season, and he could be a late bloomer at age 25 (26 on February 15th). Mitchell is a great feel-good story because he's a late bloomer and also because he won a sportsmanship award at the Arizona Fall League in '09. The end is near for Casey Blake, according to everything I said above. Unless Blake somehow bounces back in 2011, the Dodgers will need a new 3rd baseman, and sooner rather than later. If Blake collapses in mid-season, the Dodgers should call up Mitchell, as long as he's handling Triple-A again. Who knows? Maybe this kid will end up being something special. Maybe 2010 was the turning point for him. Why not try him out? (Gut feeling: Mitchell is the starting 3rd baseman for the Dodgers by mid-July and does pretty well.) Baez is a completely different story. Baez, who will turn 23 in March, was the only 3rd baseman ranked up the top 30 prospects for the Dodgers entering the 2010 season. And, while Mitchell's stock has shot up, his has been in free-fall. Through late July of '09, Baez was having a great season, hitting .286 with 17 doubles, 10 homers, 61 RBI, 5 stolen bases, and a .326 OBP in 79 games at High-A. He even represented the Dodgers in the Futures Game. But, then and there, he suffered at knee injury that caused him the miss the rest of the season. Still, the Dodgers had high hopes for Baez in '10. He didn't come through. The Dodgers sent Baez back to High-A, but he struggled, hitting just .259 with 10 doubles, 6 homers, 42 RBI, 4 stolen bases, and just a .306 OBP in 75 games. (He did hit .385 in a 7-game stint at Double-A.) Even worse, Baez's posted just a .903 Fld% at third base, which is bad enough, but his Fld% has gone down every year in the minors, from .931 in '07 to .913 to '08, to .910 in '09 to the aforementioned .903 in '10. Not what you'd expect from a top-15 prospect. Baez is in limbo, and he better get back on track in the minors in 2011 if he ever wants to make the Dodgers in any capacity. Infante is all the way down at rookie ball so we won't be seeing him any time soon. He hit .270 for the Dodgers' Dominican League team, with 2 doubles, 2 homers, 14 RBI, 13 SB, and a .369 OBP in 57 games. He even posted a .913 Fld% at 3rd. Infante may end up being the best of these three, but if so, it will be in at least 3 years. He'll turn 20 on February 24th. The Dodgers appear to have a problem with their starting 3rd baseman, Casey Blake, in his decline phase, but help may be on the way in the form of late-blooming prospect Russ Mitchell.
Shortstop:
Dodgers shortstop Rafael Furcal was held to under 100 games in '10 because of hamstring and back injuries. Considering that, he had a great year. He hit .300 with 23 doubles, 8 homers, 43 RBI, 7 triples, 66 runs, 22 stolen bases, and a .366 OBP in 97 games. His 22 stolen bases were more than he stole in '08 and '09 combined (20 in 186 games). He even earned an All-Star berth. Defensively though, he was complete disaster. He posted just a .955 Fld% at shortstop. The league average was .971. He has shown great range now and throughout his career, but he still has a career .965 Fld%, also below-average. Furcal, now 33, is signed through 2011 with a team option for 2012. He hasn't been able to stay healthy two of the past three years, so unless he stays healthy in '11 and has a great year, 2011 will be his last year for the Dodgers. Carroll is his backup at the big league level and Uribe could also play shortstop if necessary, but top prospect Dee Gordon is on the way. Gordon, who will turn 23 in April, spent 2010 at Double-A, hitting .277 with 17 doubles, 2 homers, 39 RBI, 20 triples, 86 runs, a .332 OBP, and best of all, 53 stolen bases. Those 53 stolen bases were great, but he was caught 20 times, so he only had a 73% success rate. He's THAT fast, but he has to work on reading pitchers and getting good jumps. He needs some work defensively, considering he posted just a .936 Fld% at shortstop in '10 with below average range. That seems puzzling that he has bad range considering how fast he is. I'm sure he had some sort of problem defensively that will get resolved in 2011. Depending on how well he plays at Triple-A in '10, Gordon could end up replacing Furcal in 2012. Maybe even if Furcal gets hurt in 2011. The Dodgers hope Furcall can manage to stay healthy in 2011 so they won't have to rush top prospect Dee Gordon to the majors to replace him.
Left field:
Left field is where it gets complicated for the Dodgers. There will be a division of playing time between Jay Gibbons, ex-Yankee Marcus Thames, and Tony Gwynn Jr. Gibbons, a 33 year old lefty hitter, hit .280 for the Dodgers in '10 with 2 doubles, 5 homers, and 17 RBI in 37 games. He hit .348 wtih runners in scoring position. Gibbons hit .333 in 15 plate appearances versus lefties and .267 in 65 plate appearances versus righties. He posted a way below-average .960 Fld% in left field, although he was perfect in 15 games at first base. Thames was pretty incredible as a backup outfielder for the Yankees, hitting .288 wtih 7 doubles, 12 homers, 33 RBI, and a .350 OBP in 82 games. He hit a walk-off homer off of Jonathan Papelbon and he also had a walk-off single. But defensively, he posted the same .960 Fld% in left field that Gibbons did. In the American League, the Yankees were able to use him as a DH, but obviously in the NL that's not possible. Thames hit .300 versus lefties compared to .268 versus righties. Gibbons and Thames are nearly identical players at this stage of their careers, with the main difference being that Gibbons bats lefty and Thames bats righty. They will both turn 34 in March (Gibbons on the 2nd, and Thames on the 6th). They couldn't really platoon, because of their similar trends versus righties and lefties. For his career, Gibbons has hit .259 versus righties compared to .265 versus lefties while Thames has hit .236 versus lefties compared to .264 versus righties. I guess they would have to play Gibbons versus righties and Thames verus lefties if they do decide to make a platoon. Gwynn Jr. is a very different player than Gibbons and Thames. In 2010 for the Padres, his age 28 season, Gwynn hit just .204 with 9 doubles, 3 homers, 20 RBI, 3 triples, 17 stolen bases (his only redeeming quality offensively), and a .304 OBP in 117 games. Defensively however, Gwynn was perfect in '10, posting an 1.000 Fld%. Gwynn will see a lot of playing time as a defensive replacement for Gibbons and Thames in addition to a few starts at all three outfield positions. The other backup outfielder-type player the Dodgers have is Xavier Paul, who will be 26 on February 25th. He hit .231 with the Dodgers in '10 with 8 doubles, 11 RBI, 3 SB, and a .277 OBP in 44 games. He posted a .970 Fld% in left field, which is still below-average, and a .952 Fld% in right field, which is obviously even worse. But, he spent the last three seasons at Triple-A, so this just be what kind of players Paul is. We'll have to see if he makes the team as the 5th outfielder. I bet he will. The Dodgers have a decent situation offensively in left field, but they won't have good defense as long as their starters, Gibbons and Thames, are in the game.
Centerfield:
Matt Kemp will be back in centerfield for the Dodgers again in 2011. There some trade rumors (I addressed a possible Kemp trade to the Yankees in this post), but the Dodgers did hold on to him. Kemp had a down-year in '10, hitting just .245 with 25 doubles, 28 homers, 89 RBI, 6 triples, 82 runs, 19 stolen bases (15 CS), and just a .310 OBP in all 162 games. This came one year after a breakout season in '09, when he hit .297 with 25 doubles, 26 homers, 101 RBI, 7 triples, 97 runs, 34 SB (8 CS), and a .352 OBP in just 159 games. His BA went down because his BAbip went down from .345 in '09 to .295 in '10. The crazy part of Kemp's 2009 BAbip was that he had a crazy .284 BAbip on ground balls compared to .176 in '10. Also, Kemp's strikeout rate jumped up from 20.8% to 20.5%, from 139 K's to 170 K's (although his walk rate did go up slightly from 7.8% to 7.9%). Kemp can work on decreasing his strikeout rate, but he was just too lucky from the beginning of his career in '06 to '09, having a crazy .361 BAbip. His luck just ran out. Kemp is still a good player, but maybe 2010 is just how good he really is. If he starts posting .350 BAbip's again, he'll probably hit .300 and make everyone thing he's a huge superstar, but with average luck, he'll always be one of those good players that can't hit for average or post a good OBP. Basically, Juan Uribe with better power and speed. That's unfortunate for Kemp, but that's basically what kind of player he is looking forward unless he gets lucky again. Defensively, Kemp posted a below-average .985 Fld% in centerfield in '10 with average range. He's a decent fielder. He'll be backed up by Gwynn Jr. and Paul. Matt Kemp's luck ran out in '10, and while he's still a good player, he's certainly not the great player he seemed to be.
Right field:
On May 14th, 2010, Andre Eithier had everything going for him. He was hitting .392 with 11 doubles, 11 homers, 38 RBI, 14 walks compared to 16 strikeouts, and a .457 OBP in 33 games. He seemed to be the front-runner for NL MVP, even if he cooled off a little bit. But, that day, Ethier broke his pinky, sidelining him until 31st, and affecting his swing the rest of the year. He hit just .260 after the injury with 12 homers and 44 RBI in 106 games. Overall in '10, Ethier hit .292 with 33 doubles, 23 homers, 82 RBI, and a .364 OBP in 139 games. With his pinky all healed up, what can the Dodgers expect from Ethier in '11? When Ethier was on a roll before he got hurt, it was at least partially because he had a crazy .388 BAbip. After the injury, his BAbip went down to neutral at .300. In 2009, Ethier's BAbip was .289, a bit below-average, but he still hit .272 with 42 doubles, 31 homers, 106 RBI, 92 runs, and a .361 OBP in 160 games. I would expect him to get back to that in 2011 and he better, considering he'll turn 29 in April. In right field, Ethier posted a great .996 Fld% with 6 outfield assists, although he did show poor range. He'll be backed up by Gwynn and Paul. Assuming he'll be at 100% in 2011, he'll be a very good player for the Dodgers.
Starting Rotation:
Just 22 years old, southpaw Clayton Kershaw has already proved himself as a legitimate ace. In '10, he went just 13-10, but with a 2.91 ERA and 212 K's compared to 81 walks in 32 starts and 204.1 IP. He allowed just 160 hits for a 7.1 H/9, and 13 homers for a 0.6 HR/9. He was a bit lucky, allowing a .279 BAbip. Neutralized, he had a 3.26 ERA, which is still good. A 3.26 ERA from a 23 year old Kershaw in '11 would be great. But, we could see something even better if Kershaw can mature more as a pitcher. With the bat, Kershaw hit just .055, but he led the NL with 18 sac bunts. Clayton Kershaw is a really good ace for the Dodgers.
Ted Lilly was a great midseason acquisition for the Dodgers. After going just 3-8, but with a 3.69 ERA for the Cubs, the veteran left-hander went 7-4 with a 3.52 ERA for the Dodgers. Overall in '10, he went 10-12 with a 3.62 ERA and 166 K's compared to just 44 walks in 30 starts and 193.2 IP. He allowed just 165 hits, which amounts to a very good 7.2 H/9, but 32 homers, good for a Javier Vazquez-esque (at least in 2010) 1.5 HR/9. Overall, he had a very good season. Lilly was incredible besides the homer rate, but two questions: 1) did he allow so few hits because of a low BAbip?; 2) was he unlucky with his homer rate? Well, before I answer Question 1, I have to acknowledge that Lilly's 7.2 H/9 was tied for his best H/9 of his 12-year career. As you may have guessed, he was incredibly lucky, allowing just a .254 BAbip. But, Lilly has been lucky for a long time: he has posted a BAbip .272 or lower each of the past 4 years and he hasn't posted a BAbip .300 or higher since 2001. Why has Lilly been so lucky? Well, he's an extreme fly ball pitcher (.42 ground ball to fly ball ratio [GB/FB] in '10), so he allows a lot of home runs (10.2 of the fly balls he allowed in '10 left the park [this stat is known as HR/FB]), and home runs are not considered to be in play, so they are not counted in Lilly's BAbip. So, Lilly wasn't really lucky, he just gave up so many home runs that he allowed so few other hits (just 6.2 non-homer hits per 9 innings) that his BAbip looked really good, even though he wasn't really lucky and it's been like that his whole career. Which brings up to Question 2. Even though Lilly is an extreme fly ball pitcher, 32 homers is a lot of homers. Has he always given that many homers? Well, he's only had a HR/9 ratio 1.5 or higher twice in the last 5 years, so no. Going back to that 10.2 HR/FB, he has just a 9.2 HR/FB since '03, so yes, he was a bit unlucky with his homer rate in '10. So, keeping these factors in mind, what does Lilly's '10 look like neutralized? Well, neutralized, his H/9 goes up to 8.0 while he HR/9 remains about the same, so he posts a 3.71 ERA. That's still good. Lilly better be good, considering the Dodgers signed him to a three year extension at age 35. With the bat, Lilly is a complete joke. He hit just .043 with no homers or RBI and just 2 sac bunts. Still, you have expect that from a pitcher who spent 8 years in the AL. Lilly is a solid pitcher for the Dodgers.
Hiroki Kuroda, who will turn 36 on February 10th, finally posted his first double-digit win season in the US in '10, going 11-13 with a 3.39 ERA and 159 K's compared to just 48 walks in 31 starts and 196.1 IP. He allowed 180 hits, an 8.3 H/9, and 15 homers, good for a 0.7 HR/9. He pitched very well. Kuroda was a bit lucky, but his .287 BAbip was the highest of his MLB career. He posted a reasonable 6.7 HR/FB. He's just a good pitcher. He also is a savvy batter, considering he hit just .036 with no homers or RBI, but laid down 11 sac bunts. Kuroda is such a good pitcher that I can't really say anything about him.
Chad Billingsley, like the preceding three pitchers, also seemed to have a good year '10. The 26 year old right-hander went 12-11 with a 3.57 ERA and 171 K's compared to 69 walks in 31 starts and 191.2 IP. He allowed just 176 hits, good for an 8.3 H/9, and just 8 homers, which amounts to a great 0.4 HR/9. But, now let's look at his '09 numbers: the same 12-11, but with a 4.03 ERA and 179 K's compared to 86 walks in 32 starts, a relief appearance, and 196.1 IP. That season he allowed 173 hits, good for a 7.9 H/9, but 17 homers, which comes out to a still OK 0.8 HR/9. Was he lucky in '10 or unlucky in '09, or did he just improve? Answer: he just improved. He had a .297 BAbip in '09 and a .304 BAbip in '10, his main reason for improvement was that he decreased his walk rate. Billingsley hasn't been lucky as a pitcher his entire career. Even in his great '08 season where he went 16-10 with a 3.14 ERA and 201 K's, he was somewhat unlucky, allowing a .318 BAbip. Another big reason for Billingsley's improvement in '10 was that he was able to get his GB/FB down to 1.00 (i.e. more or less the same amount of ground balls and fly balls). But, Billingsley got incredibly luck in another regard. Just 3.2% of the fly balls he allowed went for home runs. Even for Roy Halladay, 7.9% of the fly balls he allowed left the park! And don't give me that Dodger Stadium is a pitchers' park. 5.1% of Kershaw's fly balls went for home runs! In 2009, 6.8 of Billingsley's fly balls went for home runs, which isn't good unless you can dominate in every other aspect of pitching (like Halladay). Billingsley just got lucky with fly balls in '10. It was good that he allowed less fly balls, but he still got ridiculously lucky. He's still a pretty good pitcher, but expect his ERA to be a lot closer to 4.00 in 2011. Billingsley hit .145 with 3 RBI and 6 sac bunts. Chad Billingsley posted a 3.57 ERA in '09, but primarily because he got very lucky with fly balls staying in the park, so while he's still an OK pitcher, expect his ERA to go up a bit in 2011.
The Dodgers were able to sign 31 year old right-hander Jon Garland away from the rival Padres. His '10 stats look good, but you have to remember he pitched his home games at Petco Park. He went 14-12 with a career-best 3.47 ERA, but just 136 K's (still a career-high) compared to 87 walks in 33 starts and exactly 200 IP. He allowed 176 hits, good for a 7.9 H/9, and 20 homers, which amounts to a 0.9 HR/9. He just walks too many guys. Neutralized, he went 9-11 with a 4.21 ERA, although if you put him on the 2010 Dodgers, he would have gone 10-10 with a 4.09 ERA. The Dodgers might have been a bit over-zealous in signing Garland to a one year deal worth 5 million dollars, but with a vesting option worth 8 million dollars if he pitches 190 innings. He's just not that good of a pitcher. But, as the 5th starter on this team, he's fine. I still think they're paying him too much. Garland hit pretty well for the Padres, posting a .214 BA with 2 RBI and 6 sac bunts. Neutralized, his BA goes up to .241. Garland is probably being overpaid by the Dodgers, but he's great for a 5th starter.
I can't say I know where Vicente Padilla fits into all of this. He was signed to a one-year deal worth 2 million dollars with a ton of a incentives, one set of incentives for if he's a reliever, and another if he's a starter. In 2010 for the Dodgers, Padilla went 6-5 with a 4.07 ERA and 84 K's compared to just 24 walks in 16 starts and 95 IP. He allowed 79 hits, good for a 7.5 H/9, but 14 homers, which amounted to a 1.3 HR/9. He missed quite a bit of time with forearm and neck injuries. In 2011, the Dodgers are planning to use Padilla in a variety of roles, from spot starter to middle reliever, and possibly even as a closer if Broxton falters again. Padilla began his career as a middle reliever, going 7-9 with a 4.24 ERA, 80 K's, 43 walks, 17 holds, and 2 saves in 83 RA's from 1999 to 2001 with the Diamondbacks and Phillies before being converted to a starter in 2002. He allowed a 10.1 H/9 (although he did allow a .345 BAbip), but a very good 0.4 HR/9. He has made just 1 relief appearance since then. Will Vicente be successful as a middle reliever? I have absolutely no idea. Only time will tell.
Bullpen:
29 year old lefty Hong-Chih Kuo, a 2010 All-Star, had a career year in '10, going 3-2 with a minuscule 1.20 ERA, 73 K's, just 18 walks, 21 holds, and 12 saves in 56 RA's and 60 IP. He allowed just 29 hits, good for an unbelievable 4.4 H/9, and just 1 home run, which amounted to a great 0.2 HR/9. He was incredible. Was he lucky? Heck yes. He allowed just a .207 BAbip. It's hard to be much luckier than that. Just 14% of all balls put in play against him were line drives, so that's good, and it obviously lowered his BAbip, but come on! Neutralized, he allowed a 1.35 ERA (he allowed just a 4.5 H/9 neutralized, probably because of the line drive factor I just mentioned), and who in the world wouldn't take that? Kuo also did alllow a 6.6 H/9 in '08 and '09, so 4.4 isn't THAT far off. He's still a great reliever no matter you say. This offseason, the Dodgers signed 32 year old right-hander Matt Guerrier to a 3 year deal. Guerrier is not your average middle reliever. He has just a 5.9 career H/9. Still, he's been durable, averaging 76 appearances the past 4 season while posting a 3.23 ERA. In 2010, he went 5-7 with a 3.17 ERA, just 42 K's, 22 walks, 24 holds, and 1 save in 74 RA's and 71 IP. Guerrier allowed 56 hits for a 7.1 H/9, and 7 homers for a 0.9 HR/9 that is a little bit too high. Guerrier was lucky in allowing so few hits, allowing a .233 BAbip, the second lowest of his career to 2009, when he allowed a .214 BAbip on his way to a 2.36 ERA. Neutralized, he had a 3.49 ERA in '10, and while that's still pretty good, it doesn't sound like a reliever that you would sign to a three year deal. Guerrier is a good reliever, but not the kind of reliever you would want to sign to a 3-year deal. In 2010, the Dodgers drafted 24 year old right-hander Carlos Monasterios. Monasterios' overall numbers weren't that great (3-5, 4.38 ERA), but he was great in 19 RA's, going 1-0 with a 2.06 ERA, and 23 K's compared to 9 walks in 35 IP. (He did not record a save or hold.) He allowed 31 hits for an 8.0 H/9, and 3 homers for a 0.8 HR/9. Those numbers are certainly promising. We'll have to see how he does in more pressure situations. Another 2010 rookie, 23 year old righty Kenley Jansen, was incredible in '10, going 1-0 with just a 0.67 ERA, 41 K's, 15 walks, 4 holds, and 4 saves (0 blown saves) in 25 RA's and 27 IP. He allowed just 12 hits for a 4.0 H/9 that was even better than Kuo, and 0 homers (obviously good for a 0.0 HR/9). He was lucky to the tune of a .235 BAbip, and that none of the fly balls he allowed left the park, but how do you give a hoot about his 0.69 neutralized ERA? Why was his ERA still so low neutralized? Well, he had a 13.7 K/9, so not many batters were putting the ball in play against him. He was even perfect with the bat, getting a single and a walk in two plate appearances. Jansen could be a special reliever for the Dodgers. Ramon Troncoso, who will turn 28 on February 16th, had a great year in '09, going 5-4 with a 2.72 ERA, 55 K's, 34 walks, 14 holds, and 6 saves in 73 RA's and 82.2 IP. He allowed 83 hits, basically a hit per inning, but just 3 homers, good for a 0.3 HR/9. But, he didn't follow that up very well in '10, going 2-3 with a 4.33 ERA, 34 K's, 18 walks, and 8 holds in 52 RA's and 54 IP. What the difference between '09 and '10 for Troncoso? Well, it wasn't BAbip- Troncoso's .281 BAbip in 2010 was much .33 lower than hit .314 BAbip in '09. The difference was that 9.1% of the fly balls he gave up in '10 went for home runs, compared to just 2.9% in '09. The BAbip is worrying, but then again, a 4.33 ERA isn't that bad. He's a decent reliever and he'll probably make the team. 28 year old right-hander Ronald Belisario had a terrible year in '10, going 3-1 with a 5.04 ERA, 38 K's, 19 walks, 16 holds, and 2 saves in 59 RA's and 55.1 IP. He allowed 52 hits, 8.5 per 9, and 6 homers, which amounts to a bad (for a reliever) 1.0 HR/9. He did all this while have a .280 BAbip, although he did have a 10.2% HR/FB. Belisario did post a 2.04 ERA and 12 holds in '09, so he's not a complete loss cause at all. He could make the team with a good spring training. 27 year old Blake Hawksworth, acquired from the Cardinals this offseason for Ryan Theriot, did not pitch well for the Cardinals in '10, going 4-8 with a 4.98 ERA, 61 K's, 35 walks, and 4 holds in 35 RA's, 8 starts, and 90.1 IP. He allowed 113 hits, a terrible 11.3 H/9, 15 homers for a disastrous 1.5 HR/9. He had a 4.25 ERA, but 9 homers allowed as a reliever. He's a long-shot to make the team, especially with Padilla around. With all the rotation candidates around, John Ely, who was a starter for the Dodgers from late April to late June and posted a 3.62 ERA, before collapsing in two July starts, going back down to the minors, and coming back in September. Overall in '10, he went 4-10 with a 5.49 ERA and 76 K's compared to 40 walks in 18 starts and exactly 100 IP. He allowed 105 hits, over a hit per inning, and 12 homers, which came out to a 1.1 HR/9. He had a .314 BAbip against him, and an 8.0% HR/FB, so he was a bit unlucky. He was lucky enough to have a .276 BAbip until July, but he allowed a crazy .418 BAbip after. Neutralized Ely had a 6.46 ERA, so that's obviously a bad sign. He also had a 6.62 ERA at Triple-A in '10. The Dodgers will almost definitely send Ely back to Triple-A to begin '10. He needs to get back on track. If he does, he's just 24 years old, so he could have a nice career. Jon Link, who will turn 27 on March 23rd, went 3-2 with a 3.71 ERA, 55 K's, and 21 walks (I can't find his holds count) in 44 minor league RA's and 60.2 IP. He allowed over a hit per inning and 0.7 homers per 9, so he needs some work. We won't see him on the big league club to begin the year. The Dodgers should have a good bullpen in '11.
Closer:
The enigma that is Jonathan Broxton. In 2010, he was an All-Star, but was so bad late in the year that Kuo was promoted to the closer job. He ended up going 5-6 with a 4.04 ERA, 73 K's, 28 walks, 3 holds, and 22 saves in 64 RA's and 62.1 IP. He allowed 64 hits, more than a hit per inning, and 4 homers, 0.6 per 9. He had a 0.83 ERA before the Yankees tagged for 4 runs on June 27th, and he posted an unbelievably bad 7.58 ERA after that. In his defense, he did allow a .382 BAbip after June 27th, but a 7.58 ERA! All Dodgers fans should be trembling each time Broxton takes the mound. He has electric stuff, and he better use it better in '10, or we might be forced to see Vicente Padilla close.
Overview:
The Dodgers have a decent hitting team, but they need Kemp and Ethier to bounce back. They have a pretty good top 3 in their rotation, but the last 2 spots are questionable. They have a good, but mostly unproven bullpen, and of course Broxton can be a disaster. They'll be better, but I don't think they're that good of a team at all.
2010 Record: 80-82
Prediction: 84-78, 4th in NL West
The Dodgers will contend if... Kemp and Ethier have huge years, Billingsley and Garland have good years, the youngsters in the bullpen keep performing well, and Broxton saves 30 games.
Good luck, Mattingly.
Catcher: After non-tendering Russell Martin, the Dodgers resigned Rod Barajas to be their starting catcher (they acquired him off waivers in late August of 2010). In 2010 between the Mets and Dodgers, Barajas hit .240 with 14 doubles, 17 homers, 47 RBI, and a .284 OBP in 99 games, missing time with an oblique injury. The power numbers were OK, but his OBP was .043 lower than the league average. That's unacceptable. But, Barajas did have just a .236 BAbip, and accordingly, he hit .252 with a .299 OBP neutralized, which is a bit better. Defensively, Barajas posted a .996 Fld% with just 3 passed balls, but he posted just a 15% CS%. Although being a Yankee fan, I am biased, but Martin is definitely a better player than Barajas both offensively and defensively when healthy, particularly in OBP (.365 career OBP and .347 in '10) and CS% (31% for his career and 39% in '10). Martin will be backed up by Dioner Navarro, who hit just .194 in '10 and posted just a .986 Fld%, but he allowed no passed balls and posted a 39% CS%. If all else fails, the Dodgers could call up A.J. Ellis, who turns 30 in April. He has literally no power (career high in homers in the minors was 8 in '07), but he did hit .278 with 16 RBI and a .363 OBP in '10, and post a .996 Fld%, just 1 passed ball, and a 28% CS% in 44 games. I don't really trust Rod Barajas offensively or defensively for the Dodgers.
First base:
James Loney has never been a prototypical first baseman for the Dodgers. His career high in homers in the major leagues was 15 in 96 games in '07, especially strange because he's appeared in 158 or more games each of the past 3 seasons. Loney is much more of a gap-hitter. In '10, he hit .267 with 41 doubles (5th in the NL), just 10 homers, 88 RBI, 10 SB, and a .329 OBP in 161 games. Defensively, Loney is outstanding. He posted a .997 Fld% at first base in '10 with outstanding range. Loney will turn 27 in May. Overall, Loney is a pretty good first baseman, just not what you'd expect. He'll be backed up by John Lindsey, and Jay Gibbons, who we'll talk about as a right fielder. Lindsey is a career minor leaguer who finally made his big league debut in '10 at age 33 after 16 seasons in the minors, although he hit just .083. He was ridiculous in the minors in '10, hitting .353 at Triple-A with 41 doubles, 25 homers, 97 RBI, and a .400 OBP in 107 games. He's pretty much a disaster defensively, considering he posted just a .989 Fld% at first base in the minors in '10 (league average .993) and has just a .987 career Fld% at the position in the minors. The Dodgers don't get typical production out of their first baseman, Loney, but he's still a good player.
Second base:
The Dodgers were able to lure Juan Uribe away from the divison-rival and defending champion Giants by giving him a 3 year deal to him at age 30. Uribe is an enigma of a hitter. In '10, he hit 24 homers and drove in 85 runs. Sounds good, right? Well, he hit .248 with just a .310 OBP. For his career, he has hit .256 with 15 homers and 60 RBI per season, but just a .300 OBP. Accordingly, Uribe has never been an All-Star in 10 major league seasons. He's an OK player, but his OBP really holds him down. He managed a lower OBP than Mark Reynolds in 2010 (.320), and Reynolds hit just .198! He's a decent player, and he'll never be anything more. Defensively, he managed above-average fielding percentages at shortstop (.984), third base (.957), and second base (1.000), although he did have below average range at short. Uribe has a great .990 career Fld% at second for his career. Uribe will be backed up by the Dodgers' utility infielder, Jamey Carroll. Carroll, for a utilityman, is a surprisingly good hitter. He hit .291 in '10 with 15 doubles, 0 homers, 23 RBI, 12 stolen bases, and even a .379 OBP in 133 games. If he had any power, he'd be a great player. In 2006 for the Rockies, Carroll hit .300 with 23 doubles, 5 homers, 36 RBI, 5 triples, 84 runs, 10 SB, and a .377 OBP in 136 games. Carroll's real problem was that he couldn't make the majors until he was 28 years old, spending 7 full seasons in the minors. He'll be 37 on February 18th. Anyway, Carroll has a ridiculous .992 career Fld% at second base, including an NL leading .995 Fld% in that 2006 season. In 158 career games at shortstop, he has an unbelievable .989 career Fld% (Derek Jeter's .989 Fld% in '10 led the AL), although he is below average at third base (.945 Fld%) and left field (.971 Fld%). He's still a great utility player. Uribe is just a decent player because of his low OBP, so the Dodgers have just a decent situation at second base, although Carroll is a great backup.
Third Base:
There have been off-years, then there has been Casey Blake's 2010. It doesn't sound so bad- he hit .248 with 28 doubles, 17 homers, 64 RBI, 56 runs, and a .320 OBP in 146 games. He had a .407 slugging percentage. Baseball-Reference gave him a 1.6 offensive WAR. Compare to that to his '09 season. That year, he hit .280 with 25 doubles, 18 homers, 79 RBI, 84 runs, a .363 OBP, and a .468 slugging percentage in 139 games. Look at the difference in OPS: .727 in '10 versus .832 in '09. The .727 was below-average while the .832 was significantly above-average. Wow. Blake's BAbip did decrease from .327 to .305, but that wasn't the real reason that his numbers went down so much. In 2009, Blake struck out 116 times, 20.5% of his plate appearances. In 2010, he struck out 138 times, 24.2% of his plate appearances. That's a big difference. In addition, his walk rate decreased from 11.2% to 8.4%. The reason for the increase in strikeout rate and decrease in walk rate in '10 was that Blake hit just .194 whenever he was behind in the count, compared to .259 in '09. Will Blake rebound in '10? Well, first of all he's 37 years old. That's isn't a very common age for a bounce-back year. He wasn't unlucky, so it's not like his bound for a bounce-back year anyway. I doubt he'll ever get back to his '09 numbers. So, what should we expect from him? Well, Baseball-Reference has a list of 'Comparable Batters through 36' for Blake. Let's go through the players on the list. Melvin Mora has fallen off a cliff the past 2 seasons, hitting a combined 15 homers after mashing 23 in his age 36 season. He is still around, though. Hector Lopez was done after a bad age 36 season, hitting just .214. So were Aaron Boone, Charlie Hayes, Glenallen Hill, and Gary Ward. Bill Robinson had one more decent season. Kevin Millar lasted one more season. Jim Hickman was a backup in his final season at age 37. Jay Payton appeared in 20 games in '10 at age 37 (hitting .343) and he's currently a free agent. Blake is signed for at least one more year (there's an team option with a buyout for 2012), so I'm guessing he'll turn out like Mora has. He'll be a shadow of his former self. If he completely collapses, the Dodgers could slide Uribe to third and put in Carroll at second. But, what about the Dodgers' 3rd base prospects in the minors? With 2011 possibly being Blake's last year, it's hard not to mention some prospects that could step in for him in 2011 if necessary. The Dodgers have three 3rd base prospects who profile as at least decent players: Russ Mitchell, Pedro Baez, and Jorky Infante. Martin had a big league cup of coffee in '10, hitting .143 with a .140 OBP (he was thrown out trying to stretch, which raises your BA, but lowers your OBP). But, his first two major league hits were homers, and he drove in 4 runs. Defensively, he posted just a .895 Fld% at 3rd base (2 errors in 19 chances, and a .958 Fld% at 3 games first base, although he was perfect in left field in 3 games. You can throw out everything I just said because it's such a small sample size. Let's talk about Martin's stats at Triple-A in '10. He hit .315 with 38 doubles, 23 homers, 87 RBI, 97 runs, and a .363 OBP in 127 games. Defensively, he posted a .958 Fld% at third base, which would have been above-average in the 2010 NL. Those are obviously great stats, and Martin wasn't even on Baseball America's top 30 prospects list for the Dodgers in '10! He had a breakthrough season, and he could be a late bloomer at age 25 (26 on February 15th). Mitchell is a great feel-good story because he's a late bloomer and also because he won a sportsmanship award at the Arizona Fall League in '09. The end is near for Casey Blake, according to everything I said above. Unless Blake somehow bounces back in 2011, the Dodgers will need a new 3rd baseman, and sooner rather than later. If Blake collapses in mid-season, the Dodgers should call up Mitchell, as long as he's handling Triple-A again. Who knows? Maybe this kid will end up being something special. Maybe 2010 was the turning point for him. Why not try him out? (Gut feeling: Mitchell is the starting 3rd baseman for the Dodgers by mid-July and does pretty well.) Baez is a completely different story. Baez, who will turn 23 in March, was the only 3rd baseman ranked up the top 30 prospects for the Dodgers entering the 2010 season. And, while Mitchell's stock has shot up, his has been in free-fall. Through late July of '09, Baez was having a great season, hitting .286 with 17 doubles, 10 homers, 61 RBI, 5 stolen bases, and a .326 OBP in 79 games at High-A. He even represented the Dodgers in the Futures Game. But, then and there, he suffered at knee injury that caused him the miss the rest of the season. Still, the Dodgers had high hopes for Baez in '10. He didn't come through. The Dodgers sent Baez back to High-A, but he struggled, hitting just .259 with 10 doubles, 6 homers, 42 RBI, 4 stolen bases, and just a .306 OBP in 75 games. (He did hit .385 in a 7-game stint at Double-A.) Even worse, Baez's posted just a .903 Fld% at third base, which is bad enough, but his Fld% has gone down every year in the minors, from .931 in '07 to .913 to '08, to .910 in '09 to the aforementioned .903 in '10. Not what you'd expect from a top-15 prospect. Baez is in limbo, and he better get back on track in the minors in 2011 if he ever wants to make the Dodgers in any capacity. Infante is all the way down at rookie ball so we won't be seeing him any time soon. He hit .270 for the Dodgers' Dominican League team, with 2 doubles, 2 homers, 14 RBI, 13 SB, and a .369 OBP in 57 games. He even posted a .913 Fld% at 3rd. Infante may end up being the best of these three, but if so, it will be in at least 3 years. He'll turn 20 on February 24th. The Dodgers appear to have a problem with their starting 3rd baseman, Casey Blake, in his decline phase, but help may be on the way in the form of late-blooming prospect Russ Mitchell.
Shortstop:
Dodgers shortstop Rafael Furcal was held to under 100 games in '10 because of hamstring and back injuries. Considering that, he had a great year. He hit .300 with 23 doubles, 8 homers, 43 RBI, 7 triples, 66 runs, 22 stolen bases, and a .366 OBP in 97 games. His 22 stolen bases were more than he stole in '08 and '09 combined (20 in 186 games). He even earned an All-Star berth. Defensively though, he was complete disaster. He posted just a .955 Fld% at shortstop. The league average was .971. He has shown great range now and throughout his career, but he still has a career .965 Fld%, also below-average. Furcal, now 33, is signed through 2011 with a team option for 2012. He hasn't been able to stay healthy two of the past three years, so unless he stays healthy in '11 and has a great year, 2011 will be his last year for the Dodgers. Carroll is his backup at the big league level and Uribe could also play shortstop if necessary, but top prospect Dee Gordon is on the way. Gordon, who will turn 23 in April, spent 2010 at Double-A, hitting .277 with 17 doubles, 2 homers, 39 RBI, 20 triples, 86 runs, a .332 OBP, and best of all, 53 stolen bases. Those 53 stolen bases were great, but he was caught 20 times, so he only had a 73% success rate. He's THAT fast, but he has to work on reading pitchers and getting good jumps. He needs some work defensively, considering he posted just a .936 Fld% at shortstop in '10 with below average range. That seems puzzling that he has bad range considering how fast he is. I'm sure he had some sort of problem defensively that will get resolved in 2011. Depending on how well he plays at Triple-A in '10, Gordon could end up replacing Furcal in 2012. Maybe even if Furcal gets hurt in 2011. The Dodgers hope Furcall can manage to stay healthy in 2011 so they won't have to rush top prospect Dee Gordon to the majors to replace him.
Left field:
Left field is where it gets complicated for the Dodgers. There will be a division of playing time between Jay Gibbons, ex-Yankee Marcus Thames, and Tony Gwynn Jr. Gibbons, a 33 year old lefty hitter, hit .280 for the Dodgers in '10 with 2 doubles, 5 homers, and 17 RBI in 37 games. He hit .348 wtih runners in scoring position. Gibbons hit .333 in 15 plate appearances versus lefties and .267 in 65 plate appearances versus righties. He posted a way below-average .960 Fld% in left field, although he was perfect in 15 games at first base. Thames was pretty incredible as a backup outfielder for the Yankees, hitting .288 wtih 7 doubles, 12 homers, 33 RBI, and a .350 OBP in 82 games. He hit a walk-off homer off of Jonathan Papelbon and he also had a walk-off single. But defensively, he posted the same .960 Fld% in left field that Gibbons did. In the American League, the Yankees were able to use him as a DH, but obviously in the NL that's not possible. Thames hit .300 versus lefties compared to .268 versus righties. Gibbons and Thames are nearly identical players at this stage of their careers, with the main difference being that Gibbons bats lefty and Thames bats righty. They will both turn 34 in March (Gibbons on the 2nd, and Thames on the 6th). They couldn't really platoon, because of their similar trends versus righties and lefties. For his career, Gibbons has hit .259 versus righties compared to .265 versus lefties while Thames has hit .236 versus lefties compared to .264 versus righties. I guess they would have to play Gibbons versus righties and Thames verus lefties if they do decide to make a platoon. Gwynn Jr. is a very different player than Gibbons and Thames. In 2010 for the Padres, his age 28 season, Gwynn hit just .204 with 9 doubles, 3 homers, 20 RBI, 3 triples, 17 stolen bases (his only redeeming quality offensively), and a .304 OBP in 117 games. Defensively however, Gwynn was perfect in '10, posting an 1.000 Fld%. Gwynn will see a lot of playing time as a defensive replacement for Gibbons and Thames in addition to a few starts at all three outfield positions. The other backup outfielder-type player the Dodgers have is Xavier Paul, who will be 26 on February 25th. He hit .231 with the Dodgers in '10 with 8 doubles, 11 RBI, 3 SB, and a .277 OBP in 44 games. He posted a .970 Fld% in left field, which is still below-average, and a .952 Fld% in right field, which is obviously even worse. But, he spent the last three seasons at Triple-A, so this just be what kind of players Paul is. We'll have to see if he makes the team as the 5th outfielder. I bet he will. The Dodgers have a decent situation offensively in left field, but they won't have good defense as long as their starters, Gibbons and Thames, are in the game.
Centerfield:
Matt Kemp will be back in centerfield for the Dodgers again in 2011. There some trade rumors (I addressed a possible Kemp trade to the Yankees in this post), but the Dodgers did hold on to him. Kemp had a down-year in '10, hitting just .245 with 25 doubles, 28 homers, 89 RBI, 6 triples, 82 runs, 19 stolen bases (15 CS), and just a .310 OBP in all 162 games. This came one year after a breakout season in '09, when he hit .297 with 25 doubles, 26 homers, 101 RBI, 7 triples, 97 runs, 34 SB (8 CS), and a .352 OBP in just 159 games. His BA went down because his BAbip went down from .345 in '09 to .295 in '10. The crazy part of Kemp's 2009 BAbip was that he had a crazy .284 BAbip on ground balls compared to .176 in '10. Also, Kemp's strikeout rate jumped up from 20.8% to 20.5%, from 139 K's to 170 K's (although his walk rate did go up slightly from 7.8% to 7.9%). Kemp can work on decreasing his strikeout rate, but he was just too lucky from the beginning of his career in '06 to '09, having a crazy .361 BAbip. His luck just ran out. Kemp is still a good player, but maybe 2010 is just how good he really is. If he starts posting .350 BAbip's again, he'll probably hit .300 and make everyone thing he's a huge superstar, but with average luck, he'll always be one of those good players that can't hit for average or post a good OBP. Basically, Juan Uribe with better power and speed. That's unfortunate for Kemp, but that's basically what kind of player he is looking forward unless he gets lucky again. Defensively, Kemp posted a below-average .985 Fld% in centerfield in '10 with average range. He's a decent fielder. He'll be backed up by Gwynn Jr. and Paul. Matt Kemp's luck ran out in '10, and while he's still a good player, he's certainly not the great player he seemed to be.
Right field:
On May 14th, 2010, Andre Eithier had everything going for him. He was hitting .392 with 11 doubles, 11 homers, 38 RBI, 14 walks compared to 16 strikeouts, and a .457 OBP in 33 games. He seemed to be the front-runner for NL MVP, even if he cooled off a little bit. But, that day, Ethier broke his pinky, sidelining him until 31st, and affecting his swing the rest of the year. He hit just .260 after the injury with 12 homers and 44 RBI in 106 games. Overall in '10, Ethier hit .292 with 33 doubles, 23 homers, 82 RBI, and a .364 OBP in 139 games. With his pinky all healed up, what can the Dodgers expect from Ethier in '11? When Ethier was on a roll before he got hurt, it was at least partially because he had a crazy .388 BAbip. After the injury, his BAbip went down to neutral at .300. In 2009, Ethier's BAbip was .289, a bit below-average, but he still hit .272 with 42 doubles, 31 homers, 106 RBI, 92 runs, and a .361 OBP in 160 games. I would expect him to get back to that in 2011 and he better, considering he'll turn 29 in April. In right field, Ethier posted a great .996 Fld% with 6 outfield assists, although he did show poor range. He'll be backed up by Gwynn and Paul. Assuming he'll be at 100% in 2011, he'll be a very good player for the Dodgers.
Starting Rotation:
Just 22 years old, southpaw Clayton Kershaw has already proved himself as a legitimate ace. In '10, he went just 13-10, but with a 2.91 ERA and 212 K's compared to 81 walks in 32 starts and 204.1 IP. He allowed just 160 hits for a 7.1 H/9, and 13 homers for a 0.6 HR/9. He was a bit lucky, allowing a .279 BAbip. Neutralized, he had a 3.26 ERA, which is still good. A 3.26 ERA from a 23 year old Kershaw in '11 would be great. But, we could see something even better if Kershaw can mature more as a pitcher. With the bat, Kershaw hit just .055, but he led the NL with 18 sac bunts. Clayton Kershaw is a really good ace for the Dodgers.
Ted Lilly was a great midseason acquisition for the Dodgers. After going just 3-8, but with a 3.69 ERA for the Cubs, the veteran left-hander went 7-4 with a 3.52 ERA for the Dodgers. Overall in '10, he went 10-12 with a 3.62 ERA and 166 K's compared to just 44 walks in 30 starts and 193.2 IP. He allowed just 165 hits, which amounts to a very good 7.2 H/9, but 32 homers, good for a Javier Vazquez-esque (at least in 2010) 1.5 HR/9. Overall, he had a very good season. Lilly was incredible besides the homer rate, but two questions: 1) did he allow so few hits because of a low BAbip?; 2) was he unlucky with his homer rate? Well, before I answer Question 1, I have to acknowledge that Lilly's 7.2 H/9 was tied for his best H/9 of his 12-year career. As you may have guessed, he was incredibly lucky, allowing just a .254 BAbip. But, Lilly has been lucky for a long time: he has posted a BAbip .272 or lower each of the past 4 years and he hasn't posted a BAbip .300 or higher since 2001. Why has Lilly been so lucky? Well, he's an extreme fly ball pitcher (.42 ground ball to fly ball ratio [GB/FB] in '10), so he allows a lot of home runs (10.2 of the fly balls he allowed in '10 left the park [this stat is known as HR/FB]), and home runs are not considered to be in play, so they are not counted in Lilly's BAbip. So, Lilly wasn't really lucky, he just gave up so many home runs that he allowed so few other hits (just 6.2 non-homer hits per 9 innings) that his BAbip looked really good, even though he wasn't really lucky and it's been like that his whole career. Which brings up to Question 2. Even though Lilly is an extreme fly ball pitcher, 32 homers is a lot of homers. Has he always given that many homers? Well, he's only had a HR/9 ratio 1.5 or higher twice in the last 5 years, so no. Going back to that 10.2 HR/FB, he has just a 9.2 HR/FB since '03, so yes, he was a bit unlucky with his homer rate in '10. So, keeping these factors in mind, what does Lilly's '10 look like neutralized? Well, neutralized, his H/9 goes up to 8.0 while he HR/9 remains about the same, so he posts a 3.71 ERA. That's still good. Lilly better be good, considering the Dodgers signed him to a three year extension at age 35. With the bat, Lilly is a complete joke. He hit just .043 with no homers or RBI and just 2 sac bunts. Still, you have expect that from a pitcher who spent 8 years in the AL. Lilly is a solid pitcher for the Dodgers.
Hiroki Kuroda, who will turn 36 on February 10th, finally posted his first double-digit win season in the US in '10, going 11-13 with a 3.39 ERA and 159 K's compared to just 48 walks in 31 starts and 196.1 IP. He allowed 180 hits, an 8.3 H/9, and 15 homers, good for a 0.7 HR/9. He pitched very well. Kuroda was a bit lucky, but his .287 BAbip was the highest of his MLB career. He posted a reasonable 6.7 HR/FB. He's just a good pitcher. He also is a savvy batter, considering he hit just .036 with no homers or RBI, but laid down 11 sac bunts. Kuroda is such a good pitcher that I can't really say anything about him.
Chad Billingsley, like the preceding three pitchers, also seemed to have a good year '10. The 26 year old right-hander went 12-11 with a 3.57 ERA and 171 K's compared to 69 walks in 31 starts and 191.2 IP. He allowed just 176 hits, good for an 8.3 H/9, and just 8 homers, which amounts to a great 0.4 HR/9. But, now let's look at his '09 numbers: the same 12-11, but with a 4.03 ERA and 179 K's compared to 86 walks in 32 starts, a relief appearance, and 196.1 IP. That season he allowed 173 hits, good for a 7.9 H/9, but 17 homers, which comes out to a still OK 0.8 HR/9. Was he lucky in '10 or unlucky in '09, or did he just improve? Answer: he just improved. He had a .297 BAbip in '09 and a .304 BAbip in '10, his main reason for improvement was that he decreased his walk rate. Billingsley hasn't been lucky as a pitcher his entire career. Even in his great '08 season where he went 16-10 with a 3.14 ERA and 201 K's, he was somewhat unlucky, allowing a .318 BAbip. Another big reason for Billingsley's improvement in '10 was that he was able to get his GB/FB down to 1.00 (i.e. more or less the same amount of ground balls and fly balls). But, Billingsley got incredibly luck in another regard. Just 3.2% of the fly balls he allowed went for home runs. Even for Roy Halladay, 7.9% of the fly balls he allowed left the park! And don't give me that Dodger Stadium is a pitchers' park. 5.1% of Kershaw's fly balls went for home runs! In 2009, 6.8 of Billingsley's fly balls went for home runs, which isn't good unless you can dominate in every other aspect of pitching (like Halladay). Billingsley just got lucky with fly balls in '10. It was good that he allowed less fly balls, but he still got ridiculously lucky. He's still a pretty good pitcher, but expect his ERA to be a lot closer to 4.00 in 2011. Billingsley hit .145 with 3 RBI and 6 sac bunts. Chad Billingsley posted a 3.57 ERA in '09, but primarily because he got very lucky with fly balls staying in the park, so while he's still an OK pitcher, expect his ERA to go up a bit in 2011.
The Dodgers were able to sign 31 year old right-hander Jon Garland away from the rival Padres. His '10 stats look good, but you have to remember he pitched his home games at Petco Park. He went 14-12 with a career-best 3.47 ERA, but just 136 K's (still a career-high) compared to 87 walks in 33 starts and exactly 200 IP. He allowed 176 hits, good for a 7.9 H/9, and 20 homers, which amounts to a 0.9 HR/9. He just walks too many guys. Neutralized, he went 9-11 with a 4.21 ERA, although if you put him on the 2010 Dodgers, he would have gone 10-10 with a 4.09 ERA. The Dodgers might have been a bit over-zealous in signing Garland to a one year deal worth 5 million dollars, but with a vesting option worth 8 million dollars if he pitches 190 innings. He's just not that good of a pitcher. But, as the 5th starter on this team, he's fine. I still think they're paying him too much. Garland hit pretty well for the Padres, posting a .214 BA with 2 RBI and 6 sac bunts. Neutralized, his BA goes up to .241. Garland is probably being overpaid by the Dodgers, but he's great for a 5th starter.
I can't say I know where Vicente Padilla fits into all of this. He was signed to a one-year deal worth 2 million dollars with a ton of a incentives, one set of incentives for if he's a reliever, and another if he's a starter. In 2010 for the Dodgers, Padilla went 6-5 with a 4.07 ERA and 84 K's compared to just 24 walks in 16 starts and 95 IP. He allowed 79 hits, good for a 7.5 H/9, but 14 homers, which amounted to a 1.3 HR/9. He missed quite a bit of time with forearm and neck injuries. In 2011, the Dodgers are planning to use Padilla in a variety of roles, from spot starter to middle reliever, and possibly even as a closer if Broxton falters again. Padilla began his career as a middle reliever, going 7-9 with a 4.24 ERA, 80 K's, 43 walks, 17 holds, and 2 saves in 83 RA's from 1999 to 2001 with the Diamondbacks and Phillies before being converted to a starter in 2002. He allowed a 10.1 H/9 (although he did allow a .345 BAbip), but a very good 0.4 HR/9. He has made just 1 relief appearance since then. Will Vicente be successful as a middle reliever? I have absolutely no idea. Only time will tell.
Bullpen:
29 year old lefty Hong-Chih Kuo, a 2010 All-Star, had a career year in '10, going 3-2 with a minuscule 1.20 ERA, 73 K's, just 18 walks, 21 holds, and 12 saves in 56 RA's and 60 IP. He allowed just 29 hits, good for an unbelievable 4.4 H/9, and just 1 home run, which amounted to a great 0.2 HR/9. He was incredible. Was he lucky? Heck yes. He allowed just a .207 BAbip. It's hard to be much luckier than that. Just 14% of all balls put in play against him were line drives, so that's good, and it obviously lowered his BAbip, but come on! Neutralized, he allowed a 1.35 ERA (he allowed just a 4.5 H/9 neutralized, probably because of the line drive factor I just mentioned), and who in the world wouldn't take that? Kuo also did alllow a 6.6 H/9 in '08 and '09, so 4.4 isn't THAT far off. He's still a great reliever no matter you say. This offseason, the Dodgers signed 32 year old right-hander Matt Guerrier to a 3 year deal. Guerrier is not your average middle reliever. He has just a 5.9 career H/9. Still, he's been durable, averaging 76 appearances the past 4 season while posting a 3.23 ERA. In 2010, he went 5-7 with a 3.17 ERA, just 42 K's, 22 walks, 24 holds, and 1 save in 74 RA's and 71 IP. Guerrier allowed 56 hits for a 7.1 H/9, and 7 homers for a 0.9 HR/9 that is a little bit too high. Guerrier was lucky in allowing so few hits, allowing a .233 BAbip, the second lowest of his career to 2009, when he allowed a .214 BAbip on his way to a 2.36 ERA. Neutralized, he had a 3.49 ERA in '10, and while that's still pretty good, it doesn't sound like a reliever that you would sign to a three year deal. Guerrier is a good reliever, but not the kind of reliever you would want to sign to a 3-year deal. In 2010, the Dodgers drafted 24 year old right-hander Carlos Monasterios. Monasterios' overall numbers weren't that great (3-5, 4.38 ERA), but he was great in 19 RA's, going 1-0 with a 2.06 ERA, and 23 K's compared to 9 walks in 35 IP. (He did not record a save or hold.) He allowed 31 hits for an 8.0 H/9, and 3 homers for a 0.8 HR/9. Those numbers are certainly promising. We'll have to see how he does in more pressure situations. Another 2010 rookie, 23 year old righty Kenley Jansen, was incredible in '10, going 1-0 with just a 0.67 ERA, 41 K's, 15 walks, 4 holds, and 4 saves (0 blown saves) in 25 RA's and 27 IP. He allowed just 12 hits for a 4.0 H/9 that was even better than Kuo, and 0 homers (obviously good for a 0.0 HR/9). He was lucky to the tune of a .235 BAbip, and that none of the fly balls he allowed left the park, but how do you give a hoot about his 0.69 neutralized ERA? Why was his ERA still so low neutralized? Well, he had a 13.7 K/9, so not many batters were putting the ball in play against him. He was even perfect with the bat, getting a single and a walk in two plate appearances. Jansen could be a special reliever for the Dodgers. Ramon Troncoso, who will turn 28 on February 16th, had a great year in '09, going 5-4 with a 2.72 ERA, 55 K's, 34 walks, 14 holds, and 6 saves in 73 RA's and 82.2 IP. He allowed 83 hits, basically a hit per inning, but just 3 homers, good for a 0.3 HR/9. But, he didn't follow that up very well in '10, going 2-3 with a 4.33 ERA, 34 K's, 18 walks, and 8 holds in 52 RA's and 54 IP. What the difference between '09 and '10 for Troncoso? Well, it wasn't BAbip- Troncoso's .281 BAbip in 2010 was much .33 lower than hit .314 BAbip in '09. The difference was that 9.1% of the fly balls he gave up in '10 went for home runs, compared to just 2.9% in '09. The BAbip is worrying, but then again, a 4.33 ERA isn't that bad. He's a decent reliever and he'll probably make the team. 28 year old right-hander Ronald Belisario had a terrible year in '10, going 3-1 with a 5.04 ERA, 38 K's, 19 walks, 16 holds, and 2 saves in 59 RA's and 55.1 IP. He allowed 52 hits, 8.5 per 9, and 6 homers, which amounts to a bad (for a reliever) 1.0 HR/9. He did all this while have a .280 BAbip, although he did have a 10.2% HR/FB. Belisario did post a 2.04 ERA and 12 holds in '09, so he's not a complete loss cause at all. He could make the team with a good spring training. 27 year old Blake Hawksworth, acquired from the Cardinals this offseason for Ryan Theriot, did not pitch well for the Cardinals in '10, going 4-8 with a 4.98 ERA, 61 K's, 35 walks, and 4 holds in 35 RA's, 8 starts, and 90.1 IP. He allowed 113 hits, a terrible 11.3 H/9, 15 homers for a disastrous 1.5 HR/9. He had a 4.25 ERA, but 9 homers allowed as a reliever. He's a long-shot to make the team, especially with Padilla around. With all the rotation candidates around, John Ely, who was a starter for the Dodgers from late April to late June and posted a 3.62 ERA, before collapsing in two July starts, going back down to the minors, and coming back in September. Overall in '10, he went 4-10 with a 5.49 ERA and 76 K's compared to 40 walks in 18 starts and exactly 100 IP. He allowed 105 hits, over a hit per inning, and 12 homers, which came out to a 1.1 HR/9. He had a .314 BAbip against him, and an 8.0% HR/FB, so he was a bit unlucky. He was lucky enough to have a .276 BAbip until July, but he allowed a crazy .418 BAbip after. Neutralized Ely had a 6.46 ERA, so that's obviously a bad sign. He also had a 6.62 ERA at Triple-A in '10. The Dodgers will almost definitely send Ely back to Triple-A to begin '10. He needs to get back on track. If he does, he's just 24 years old, so he could have a nice career. Jon Link, who will turn 27 on March 23rd, went 3-2 with a 3.71 ERA, 55 K's, and 21 walks (I can't find his holds count) in 44 minor league RA's and 60.2 IP. He allowed over a hit per inning and 0.7 homers per 9, so he needs some work. We won't see him on the big league club to begin the year. The Dodgers should have a good bullpen in '11.
Closer:
The enigma that is Jonathan Broxton. In 2010, he was an All-Star, but was so bad late in the year that Kuo was promoted to the closer job. He ended up going 5-6 with a 4.04 ERA, 73 K's, 28 walks, 3 holds, and 22 saves in 64 RA's and 62.1 IP. He allowed 64 hits, more than a hit per inning, and 4 homers, 0.6 per 9. He had a 0.83 ERA before the Yankees tagged for 4 runs on June 27th, and he posted an unbelievably bad 7.58 ERA after that. In his defense, he did allow a .382 BAbip after June 27th, but a 7.58 ERA! All Dodgers fans should be trembling each time Broxton takes the mound. He has electric stuff, and he better use it better in '10, or we might be forced to see Vicente Padilla close.
Overview:
The Dodgers have a decent hitting team, but they need Kemp and Ethier to bounce back. They have a pretty good top 3 in their rotation, but the last 2 spots are questionable. They have a good, but mostly unproven bullpen, and of course Broxton can be a disaster. They'll be better, but I don't think they're that good of a team at all.
2010 Record: 80-82
Prediction: 84-78, 4th in NL West
The Dodgers will contend if... Kemp and Ethier have huge years, Billingsley and Garland have good years, the youngsters in the bullpen keep performing well, and Broxton saves 30 games.
Good luck, Mattingly.
Friday, January 28, 2011
2011 MLB Preview: Arizona Diamondbacks
Time for the annual MLB preview! Let's start in the NL West with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
If you're new to the drill, I'm going to look at each team position by position, going through the relevant stats, and then give an overview that team and state my prediction.
Catcher:
After a nice 2009 season, Diamondbacks catcher Miguel Montero was a disappointment offensively in '10, but mostly because he missed two months early in the season with a knee injury. He hit .266 with 20 doubles, 9 homers, 43 RBI, and .332 OBP in 85 games after hitting .294 with 30 doubles, 16 homers, 59 RBI, and a .355 OBP in 128 games in '09. But, defensively, Montero is outstanding. He posted a .996 Fld% and a 31% CS% with just 6 passed balls. If Montero can rebound offensively, that would be great for Arizona, but if he can just stay healthy, hit around .270, and hit 12 or 13 homers, he would still be a valuable commodity for them. Backup Henry Blanco has just a .227 career BA, but he posted a .997 Fld% and a 50% CS% in '10 for the Mets. He's a fine backup. The D-backs have a great situation defensively at catcher, and they'll be happy if Montero can just stay healthy and hit a few homers, even if he doesn't rebound to his '09 levels.
First base:
Rookie 1st baseman Brandon Allen is poised to take over the first base job for the D-backs. Allen had cups of coffee in the majors in 2009 and 2010, hitting .221 with 5 homers and 20 RBI in 54 combined games. He posted a .993 Fld% at first base and a 1.000 Fld% in left field. At Triple-A in '10, he hit just .261, but with 18 doubles, 25 homers, 86 RBI, 14 stolen bases, and a .405 OBP in 107 games. He posted a .990 Fld% in 73 games at first base and a .981 Fld% in 33 games in left field. Allen won't be a great defensive first baseman, but the D-backs obviously hope he can hit well at the major league level. He did hit .267 in the majors in '10 compared to .202 in '09, so that's a good sign. They're not expecting him to completely replace Adam LaRoche, but they do want Allen to hit around .260 with power, maybe 18 or 19 home runs, and survive defensively. His backup at first base and possible starter if he fails will be ex-Yankee Juan Miranda. Miranda had a .253 BA with 4 homers, 14 RBI, and a .330 OBP in 46 games with the Yankees over the past three seasons. He didn't make any errors at first base. Miranda was rock-solid the past three seasons stuck behind Jason Giambi and Mark Teixeira at Triple-A, hitting .287 with 15 homers and 59 RBI per season and posting a .374 OBP. Again, keep in mind that he missed some time over those seasons because he was in the majors because of an injury. He has a .991 career Fld% at first base in the minors. Miranda will be 28 in late April, so even if he wins the starting job, he'll be just a stop-gap. The D-backs are certainly hoping that Allen can play well enough in spring training to win the starting job and play well enough during the season to keep it, but if not, they have a capable backup in Miranda.
Second base:
After a terrible '09 season with Atlanta in which he hit just .224, Kelly Johnson proved to be a great signing for the D-backs following the season. He had a breakout season in '10, hitting .284 with 36 doubles, 26 homers, 71 RBI, 5 triples, 93 runs, 13 stolen bases, and a .370 OBP in 154 games. His BA, homers, RBI, runs, stolen bases, and games played numbers in '10 were all career highs. He also was great defensively, posting an above-average .988 Fld%. Johnson is a very good player. His backups at second base with be middle-infield backups Ryan Roberts and Tony Abreu. Roberts has a .992 career Fld% at second base, and he can hit a little bit too. He hit just .197 in '10, but he hit .279 with 7 homers and 25 RBI in '09. Abreu is basically the 25th-man on the roster. He has a .251 career BA, but just a .279 OBP. He plays second, third, and short, but he's a disaster defensively at all three positions. The D-backs have a nice situation at second, having a really good player in Johnson as the starter and nice defensive depth behind him in Roberts.
Third base:
The D-backs currently have Melvin Mora penciled in as their starting third baseman. He will turn 39 in a couple of weeks. Not good. In their defense, he did have a decent season with the Rockies in '10, hitting .285 with 12 doubles, 7 homers, 45 RBI, 5 triples, and a .358 OBP in 113 games. He even posted a slightly-above average .957 Fld% at third base, but with Derek Jeter-esque range acording to Bill James' range factor per 9 innings and range factor per game stats. I want to say that he's a stop-gap for some good prospect, but their only decent third base prospect who's anywhere near the majors, Ryan Wheeler, played just 19 games at Double-A in '10 after playing in 113 at High-A. He did do well offensively, (.280, 28 doubles, 12 homers, 67 RBI, .337 OBP) and survive defensively (.949 Fld%), but he's a ways away. For now, Mora will be backed up by Geoff Blum, who hit .267 with the Astros in '10 with a significantly above-average .976 Fld% at third base. But, he'll turn 38 in April. The D-backs are very old at third base, and with no help coming in the near future, they'll just have to hope that Mora and Blum hold up.
Shortstop:
The D-backs recently signed their arbitration-eligible shortstop Stephen Drew to a two year, 13.75 million dollar deal. Good for them; he's a good all-around player. Drew isn't quite a five-tool player, but he does a little bit of everything. He's a decent hitter for average (.278 in '10), decent hitter for power (33 doubles, 15 homers, 61 RBI), he has nice speed (10 stolen bases and 12 triples), he's a good fielder (a .984 Fld%, 3rd in the NL and 3rd in the NL in putouts by a SS), and he has a nice arm (2nd in the NL in assists by a SS). He also had 83 runs, which doesn't really fit under any category (if you want to say it's part of speed, keep in mind that Mark Teixeira led the AL in runs in '10). His backups will be Roberts and Abreu. Good luck with that. Roberts has never played shortstop in the majors and has just a .959 career Fld% there in the minors. Stephen Drew is a very good shortstop for the D-backs, but there isn't much depth behind him.
Left Field:
Newly signed outfielder Xavier Nady is currently lined up as the D-backs' starting left fielder, although he could wind up playing first base if both Allen and Miranda don't play well in spring training. In a backup role for the Cubs, Nady hit .256 with 13 doubles, 6 homers, 33 RBI, and just a .306 OBP in 119 games (347 AB's). Nady missed nearly all of '09 with an elbow injury one year after having a career year in '08, hitting .297 with 37 doubles, 25 homers, 97 RBI, and a .357 OBP in 148 games between the Pirates and Yankees. From '05 to '08, Nady hit .284 with an average of 26 doubles, 19 homers, 69 RBI, and a .339 OBP per season. The D-backs are hoping that with another starting role, Nady will be able to get back to somewhere near those numbers. Defensively, Nady posted just a .970 Fld% in the outfield in '10, and has just a .966 career Fld% in left field. He better Nady's backups will be Gerardo Parra and Cole Gillespie. Parra was Arizona's primary left fielder in '10 as well as '09, but his performance in '10 didn't warrant him being the starter again. Parra was decent in '09, hitting .290 with 21 doubles, 5 homers, 60 RBI, 8 triples, 5 stolen bases (7 CS), and a .324 OBP in 124 games. He posted a below-average .978 Fld% in LF. That was good enough. His .261 BA and .308 OBP in '10 were certainly not. He set career highs in just two stats: games played (133) and HBP's (2). He hit 19 doubles, 3 homers, 30 RBI, and 6 triples. He did slightly improve his Fld% in LF to .981. Good move by the D-backs to have the guts to replace a young player with a veteran even though Parra wasn't that bad. Gillespie hit .231 with 8 doubles, 2 homers, 12 RBI, and a .283 OBP in 45 games. He posted a perfect 1.000 Fld% in CF and RF, but just a .969 Fld% in LF, although he did make just 1 error. The D-backs need Xavier Nady to get back to his previous numbers when he was a starting outfielder for the Padres, Mets, Pirates, and Yankees, but they do have decent depth behind him.
Centerfield:
In centerfield, the D-backs have a very good four-tool player in Chris Young. Young hit just .257 in '10, but with 33 doubles, 27 homers, 91 RBI, 94 runs, 28 stolen bases, and a .341 OBP in 156 games. Defensively, he showcased his arm with 10 outfield assists including 6 double plays, although his great arm did lead to just a .984 Fld%. Young's low batting averages got him in trouble in '10, when he hit just .212 with 15 homers and just 42 RBI. Even though Young is a four-tool player, he better put up a decent batting average in order to take advantage of those tools (if you don't hit, you won't hit for power and you won't be able to steal bases, and you'll be benched so you won't be able to take advantage of your defensive tools). Parra will be his backup. If Young can hit for just a decent average, centerfield will be one of the strongest positions for Arizona.
Right field:
Amid all the trade rumors, I'm sure at least a few people forgot that D-backs RF Justin Upton had an off year. He hit .273 with 27 doubles, 17 homers, 69 RBI, 18 SB, and a .356 OBP in 133 games. He hit .300 with 26 homers, 86 RBI, 20 stolen bases, and a .366 OBP in '09. As opposed to his offensive regression from '09 to '10, Upton was much better defensively, posting a .985 Fld% in '10 compared to .961 although he had just 1 assist compared to 4. Bill James' defensive metrics showed that Upton displayed great range. He had an off-year, but he's still a very good player. He'll be backed up by Parra and Gillespie. Upton is a great five-tool talent and the D-backs hope he can get back to using all five of those tools in '10.
Starting Rotation:
The D-backs' de facto ace is 26 year old right-hander and ex-Yankee Ian Kennedy. In his first full year as a starter, Kennedy did pretty well, going just 9-10, but with a 3.80 ERA and 168 K's compared to just 70 walks in 32 starts and 194 IP. He allowed just 163 hits for a 7.6 H/9 ratio, good for 9th-best in the NL. Kennedy certainly had his problems, though. He allowed 26 home runs, 7th in the NL, he hit 10 batters, 3rd in the league, and he threw 16 wild pitches, good for most in the league. Still, Kennedy was pretty unhittable, although he was certainly helped by a .261 BA on balls in play (BAbip; league average is around .300). Kennedy also out-hit one of Arizona's top power hitters this past season (Mark Reynolds, who was traded to Baltimore), hitting .204 with 2 RBI and a .290 OBP. Baseball-Reference gave him a 0.4 WAR (wins above replacement) hitting, and add that onto his 2.7 WAR pitching WAR, and he had a nice 3.1 WAR season. Kennedy was a bit lucky in '10 and certainly has some things to work on, but the D-backs hope his return to 'average' luck in '10 will be canceled out by his maturity as a pitcher.
The D-backs have to hope that they'll get some better production out of Joe Saunders, acquired in the Dan Haren trade. Saunders, a right-hander who will turn 30 in June, went just 9-17 between the LA Angels (of Anaheim) and the D-backs with a 4.47 ERA, 114 K's, and 64 walks in 33 starts and amazingly, 203.1 IP, the first time he has ever gone over 200 innings in a season. He went 3-7 with a 4.25 ERA for the D-backs. Saunders' main problem in '10 was hits allowed: he allowed 10.3 hits per 9 innings. But, that goes right along with his 9.7 career H/9. Saunders is a two-time 16 game winner (17 in '08 and 16 in '09), although his career ERA is just 4.29 and he has that bad H/9. In terms of hitting, there's not much to talk about. He hit just .087 with an RBI for the D-backs, although he did somehow steal a base. The D-backs just hope that Saunders can somehow maintain that 4.25 ERA he had in his 13 starts for them after they acquired him.
The Diamondbacks found lighting in a bottle with 23 year old right-hander Daniel Hudson in '10 (he will turn 24 in March). Hudson went 1-1 with a 6.32 ERA in 3 starts for the White Sox, but after the D-backs acquired him in the Edwin Jackson trade, he went 7-1 with a 1.69 ERA, 70 K's and just 16 walks in 11 starts and 79.2 IP. He allowed just 51 hits, good for a staggering 5.8 H/9. If Kennedy was unhittable, this guy was unstoppable. But, there are two factors that discourage me from thinking that Hudson is a ridiculous pitcher who will be dominating hitters for years to come: 1) he managed a 3.47 ERA in 93.1 Triple-A innings, which is OK, not great (although he did strike out 108 batters); and 2) he allowed just a .243 BAbip. How lucky is Hudson? Well besides that .243 BAbip, he also had 6 RBI despite just 4 hits (.148 BA). There's almost no way Hudson will manage another BAbip under .250, so the D-backs should just be hoping for that 3.47 ERA he posted at Triple-A. If Hudson puts that up, he might be the ace or number two starter on this team, but I'm placing him 3rd behind Kennedy and Saunders because I'm just really scared of what could happen if he allows a league average .300 BAbip.
There are three pitchers in contention for the last two spots in the Arizona rotation: Barry Enright, Zach Duke, and the recently acquired Armanda Galarraga. Enright, who will turn 25 in March went 6-7 with a 3.91 ERA, 49 K's, and 29 BB in 17 starts and 99 IP for the D-backs in '10. But, you have to be very worried about his 4.5 K/9 and terrible 1.8 HR/9 ratios. He also allowed just a .254 BAbip. But, he did have a 7.3 K/9 in the minors including an 8.9 K/9 at Double-A in '10. Enright is far from a sure thing, but you would think he could manage a decent ERA, at least under 4.50, if he can get that strikeout rate up to somewhere near his minor league levels. Hitting-wise, Enright was pretty incredible, hitting .252 with 6 RBI. While Enright was lucky, ex-Pirate Zack Duke was the exact opposite. Duke, 28 in April, went just 8-15 with a horrendous 5.72 ERA, 96 K's, and 51 walks in 29 starts, but just 159 IP. He allowed 212 hits, 12 per 9 innings, and 25 homers, 1.4 per 9, which isn't so bad unless you consider that Duke had the 3rd-best HR/9 ratio in the NL a few years ago. But, Duke is not as bad as the stats say he is. He had a crazy .343 BAbip. If that went down .300, Duke would have had at least a decent year. Duke posted a 4.95 FIP (fielding-independent pitching), which isn't great, or even good, but it's a heck of a lot better than his 5.72 ERA. Duke is not that bad of a pitcher. Duke hit just .063 with no RBI in '10, although he did have 8 sac bunts. There's almost no way Duke would be a complete disaster with an ERA over 5.20 as the D-backs' 5th starter. Galarraga, who recently turned 30, is what he is. He had his one moment in the limelight when Jim Joyce ruined his perfect game, but he went just 4-9 with a 4.49 ERA, just 74 strikeouts, and 51 walks in 24 starts, an RA (relief appearance), and 144.1 IP. He allowed 21 homers, a 1.3 HR/9, and 143 hits, an 8.9 H/9 ratio. He's an OK pitcher. He doesn't strike enough batters out to allow over 3 walks per 9 innings and nearly a hit per inning. At his best, Galarraga went 13-7 with a 3.78 ERA, 126 K's, and 61 walks in 28 starts, 2 RA's (relief appearances), and 178.2 IP. At his worst in '09, he went 6-10 with a 5.64 ERA, 95 K's, and 67 walks in 25 starts, 4 RA's, and 143.2 IP. Factoring the switch to the NL, Galarraga will probably post something like a 4.30 ERA. That's OK, but if Enright gets straightened out or Duke returns to his '09 form (4.06 ERA in 213 IP), they would certainly be better. We'll see what happens in spring training, but I think Enright and Duke should be the 4th and 5th starters, at least to begin the year, with Galarraga, who does have some relief experience, serving as a long reliever.
Bullpen:
Righty Juan Gutierrez had a really bad season, going 0-6 with a 5.08 ERA, 47 K's, 23 walks, 8 holds, and 15 saves in 58 RA's and 56.2 IP. Good thing he won't have to close again... at least you would think so. He posted a 6.87 ERA before previous closer Chad Qualls was traded compared to a 1.45 ERA after. What? That has to be an encouraging sign for the D-backs. He adjusted and had great success in his new role. Hopefully he can use that new experience of success in a late inning role to help him spring forward to a great 2011. Aaron Heilman went 5-8 with a 4.50 ERA, 55 K's, 26 walks, 12 holds, and 6 saves in 70 RA's and 72 IP. There has to be at least some worry that Heilman will collapse at age 32 after 5 straight seasons with over 70 appearances. Sam Demel, 25, went 2-1 with a 5.35 ERA, 33 K's, 12 walks, 4 holds, and 2 saves (0 blown saves) in 37 RA's and 37 IP. His main problem was that he allowed more than a hit per inning, although he did have a .325 BAbip. He posted an 8.0 K/9 and a great 2.9 BB/9, although he did allow 5 homers, 1.2 per 9. He could be a decent reliever in '11 for the D-backs if he just has 'average' luck. 27 year old right-hander Esmerling Vazquez had a just plain terrible season in '10. He appeared in 57 games, going 1-6 with a 5.20 ERA, 55 K's, 38 BB, and 6 holds in 53.2 IP. He simply walked too many batters, 6.4 per 9. That's a bit of a problem. He did post a 4.42 ERA in 53 RA's in '09, so the D-backs have to be optimistic that Vazquez wasn't as bad as his 2010 stats say he is. In exchange for Mark Reynolds, the D-backs acquired right-handers David Hernandez and Kam Mickolio from the Orioles. Hernandez, who wil turn 26 in May, went 8-8 with a 4.31 ERA, 72 K's, 42 walks, 2 holds, and 2 saves in 33 RA, 8 starts, and 79.1 IP. Those are decent stats. But, as a reliever, he was pretty solid, going 7-3 with a 3.16 ERA, and 45 K's compared to just 13 walks. Hernandez did pitch in mostly low leverage situations (hence the 2 holds, and not more), but he still had a nice season as a reliever and he's moving from the AL East to the NL West, so he could be a very effective reliever for the Diamondbacks. Mickolio, who will turn 27 in May, is a different story. He posted a 7.36 ERA in 3 RA's in '10. He even posted a 6.37 ERA in 30 appearances at Triple-A in '10! That's not good. Mickolio did post a 3.50 ERA in 35 Triple-A appearances in '09 and a 1.80 ERA in 17 appearances there in '08. He also posted a 2.63 ERA with 2 holds in 11 RA's for the Orioles in '09. Mickolio can't be that bad of a reliever. His ML numbers in '10 were such a small sample size, and he had just had a terrible off-year at Triple-A. I would expect something like his 4.32 career ERA in the majors. You have to notice that every reliever besides Hernandez posted an ERA 4.50 or higher in '10. You have to be worried about that.
Closer:
J.J. Putz is lined up to close for the D-backs in '11. Putz had an outstanding season as the setup man for the White Sox, going 7-5 with a 2.83 ERA, 65 strikeouts, just 15 walks, 14 holds, and 3 saves in 60 RA's and 54 IP. His last full season as a closer was 2007, when he went 6-1 with a 1.38 ERA, 82 K's, just 13 walks, and 40 saves in 68 RA's and 71.2 IP. It's a bad sign that he hasn't been a full-time closer since '07, but I think he'll be OK because of his great '10, and because at least he does have experience in the role. Plus, he's moving to the NL West. He should be fine at closer for the D-backs, saving 35 or 40 games with an ERA 2.90 or less.
Overview:
The D-backs have a decent offense, but they'll need a big bounce-back year from Justin Upton and continued success from Chris Young. The D-backs are decent defensively, but they have potential problems at the corner infield spots. The rotation is slightly below-average at best, and the bullpen is terrible, even though Putz will probably be great. The D-backs need everything to go right to contend in '11.
2010 record: 65-97, 5th in the NL West
Prediction: 70- 92, 5th in the NL West
The D-backs will contend if... Upton and Young have breakout seasons, Brandon Allen is a contender for Rookie of the Year, Mora somehow holds down 3rd base, Ian Kennedy keeps improving, Daniel Hudson still posts an ERA under 3.00, the 4th and 5th starters are surprises in a good way, and the bullpen doesn't completely collapse like it did in 2010.
If you're new to the drill, I'm going to look at each team position by position, going through the relevant stats, and then give an overview that team and state my prediction.
Catcher:
After a nice 2009 season, Diamondbacks catcher Miguel Montero was a disappointment offensively in '10, but mostly because he missed two months early in the season with a knee injury. He hit .266 with 20 doubles, 9 homers, 43 RBI, and .332 OBP in 85 games after hitting .294 with 30 doubles, 16 homers, 59 RBI, and a .355 OBP in 128 games in '09. But, defensively, Montero is outstanding. He posted a .996 Fld% and a 31% CS% with just 6 passed balls. If Montero can rebound offensively, that would be great for Arizona, but if he can just stay healthy, hit around .270, and hit 12 or 13 homers, he would still be a valuable commodity for them. Backup Henry Blanco has just a .227 career BA, but he posted a .997 Fld% and a 50% CS% in '10 for the Mets. He's a fine backup. The D-backs have a great situation defensively at catcher, and they'll be happy if Montero can just stay healthy and hit a few homers, even if he doesn't rebound to his '09 levels.
First base:
Rookie 1st baseman Brandon Allen is poised to take over the first base job for the D-backs. Allen had cups of coffee in the majors in 2009 and 2010, hitting .221 with 5 homers and 20 RBI in 54 combined games. He posted a .993 Fld% at first base and a 1.000 Fld% in left field. At Triple-A in '10, he hit just .261, but with 18 doubles, 25 homers, 86 RBI, 14 stolen bases, and a .405 OBP in 107 games. He posted a .990 Fld% in 73 games at first base and a .981 Fld% in 33 games in left field. Allen won't be a great defensive first baseman, but the D-backs obviously hope he can hit well at the major league level. He did hit .267 in the majors in '10 compared to .202 in '09, so that's a good sign. They're not expecting him to completely replace Adam LaRoche, but they do want Allen to hit around .260 with power, maybe 18 or 19 home runs, and survive defensively. His backup at first base and possible starter if he fails will be ex-Yankee Juan Miranda. Miranda had a .253 BA with 4 homers, 14 RBI, and a .330 OBP in 46 games with the Yankees over the past three seasons. He didn't make any errors at first base. Miranda was rock-solid the past three seasons stuck behind Jason Giambi and Mark Teixeira at Triple-A, hitting .287 with 15 homers and 59 RBI per season and posting a .374 OBP. Again, keep in mind that he missed some time over those seasons because he was in the majors because of an injury. He has a .991 career Fld% at first base in the minors. Miranda will be 28 in late April, so even if he wins the starting job, he'll be just a stop-gap. The D-backs are certainly hoping that Allen can play well enough in spring training to win the starting job and play well enough during the season to keep it, but if not, they have a capable backup in Miranda.
Second base:
After a terrible '09 season with Atlanta in which he hit just .224, Kelly Johnson proved to be a great signing for the D-backs following the season. He had a breakout season in '10, hitting .284 with 36 doubles, 26 homers, 71 RBI, 5 triples, 93 runs, 13 stolen bases, and a .370 OBP in 154 games. His BA, homers, RBI, runs, stolen bases, and games played numbers in '10 were all career highs. He also was great defensively, posting an above-average .988 Fld%. Johnson is a very good player. His backups at second base with be middle-infield backups Ryan Roberts and Tony Abreu. Roberts has a .992 career Fld% at second base, and he can hit a little bit too. He hit just .197 in '10, but he hit .279 with 7 homers and 25 RBI in '09. Abreu is basically the 25th-man on the roster. He has a .251 career BA, but just a .279 OBP. He plays second, third, and short, but he's a disaster defensively at all three positions. The D-backs have a nice situation at second, having a really good player in Johnson as the starter and nice defensive depth behind him in Roberts.
Third base:
The D-backs currently have Melvin Mora penciled in as their starting third baseman. He will turn 39 in a couple of weeks. Not good. In their defense, he did have a decent season with the Rockies in '10, hitting .285 with 12 doubles, 7 homers, 45 RBI, 5 triples, and a .358 OBP in 113 games. He even posted a slightly-above average .957 Fld% at third base, but with Derek Jeter-esque range acording to Bill James' range factor per 9 innings and range factor per game stats. I want to say that he's a stop-gap for some good prospect, but their only decent third base prospect who's anywhere near the majors, Ryan Wheeler, played just 19 games at Double-A in '10 after playing in 113 at High-A. He did do well offensively, (.280, 28 doubles, 12 homers, 67 RBI, .337 OBP) and survive defensively (.949 Fld%), but he's a ways away. For now, Mora will be backed up by Geoff Blum, who hit .267 with the Astros in '10 with a significantly above-average .976 Fld% at third base. But, he'll turn 38 in April. The D-backs are very old at third base, and with no help coming in the near future, they'll just have to hope that Mora and Blum hold up.
Shortstop:
The D-backs recently signed their arbitration-eligible shortstop Stephen Drew to a two year, 13.75 million dollar deal. Good for them; he's a good all-around player. Drew isn't quite a five-tool player, but he does a little bit of everything. He's a decent hitter for average (.278 in '10), decent hitter for power (33 doubles, 15 homers, 61 RBI), he has nice speed (10 stolen bases and 12 triples), he's a good fielder (a .984 Fld%, 3rd in the NL and 3rd in the NL in putouts by a SS), and he has a nice arm (2nd in the NL in assists by a SS). He also had 83 runs, which doesn't really fit under any category (if you want to say it's part of speed, keep in mind that Mark Teixeira led the AL in runs in '10). His backups will be Roberts and Abreu. Good luck with that. Roberts has never played shortstop in the majors and has just a .959 career Fld% there in the minors. Stephen Drew is a very good shortstop for the D-backs, but there isn't much depth behind him.
Left Field:
Newly signed outfielder Xavier Nady is currently lined up as the D-backs' starting left fielder, although he could wind up playing first base if both Allen and Miranda don't play well in spring training. In a backup role for the Cubs, Nady hit .256 with 13 doubles, 6 homers, 33 RBI, and just a .306 OBP in 119 games (347 AB's). Nady missed nearly all of '09 with an elbow injury one year after having a career year in '08, hitting .297 with 37 doubles, 25 homers, 97 RBI, and a .357 OBP in 148 games between the Pirates and Yankees. From '05 to '08, Nady hit .284 with an average of 26 doubles, 19 homers, 69 RBI, and a .339 OBP per season. The D-backs are hoping that with another starting role, Nady will be able to get back to somewhere near those numbers. Defensively, Nady posted just a .970 Fld% in the outfield in '10, and has just a .966 career Fld% in left field. He better Nady's backups will be Gerardo Parra and Cole Gillespie. Parra was Arizona's primary left fielder in '10 as well as '09, but his performance in '10 didn't warrant him being the starter again. Parra was decent in '09, hitting .290 with 21 doubles, 5 homers, 60 RBI, 8 triples, 5 stolen bases (7 CS), and a .324 OBP in 124 games. He posted a below-average .978 Fld% in LF. That was good enough. His .261 BA and .308 OBP in '10 were certainly not. He set career highs in just two stats: games played (133) and HBP's (2). He hit 19 doubles, 3 homers, 30 RBI, and 6 triples. He did slightly improve his Fld% in LF to .981. Good move by the D-backs to have the guts to replace a young player with a veteran even though Parra wasn't that bad. Gillespie hit .231 with 8 doubles, 2 homers, 12 RBI, and a .283 OBP in 45 games. He posted a perfect 1.000 Fld% in CF and RF, but just a .969 Fld% in LF, although he did make just 1 error. The D-backs need Xavier Nady to get back to his previous numbers when he was a starting outfielder for the Padres, Mets, Pirates, and Yankees, but they do have decent depth behind him.
Centerfield:
In centerfield, the D-backs have a very good four-tool player in Chris Young. Young hit just .257 in '10, but with 33 doubles, 27 homers, 91 RBI, 94 runs, 28 stolen bases, and a .341 OBP in 156 games. Defensively, he showcased his arm with 10 outfield assists including 6 double plays, although his great arm did lead to just a .984 Fld%. Young's low batting averages got him in trouble in '10, when he hit just .212 with 15 homers and just 42 RBI. Even though Young is a four-tool player, he better put up a decent batting average in order to take advantage of those tools (if you don't hit, you won't hit for power and you won't be able to steal bases, and you'll be benched so you won't be able to take advantage of your defensive tools). Parra will be his backup. If Young can hit for just a decent average, centerfield will be one of the strongest positions for Arizona.
Right field:
Amid all the trade rumors, I'm sure at least a few people forgot that D-backs RF Justin Upton had an off year. He hit .273 with 27 doubles, 17 homers, 69 RBI, 18 SB, and a .356 OBP in 133 games. He hit .300 with 26 homers, 86 RBI, 20 stolen bases, and a .366 OBP in '09. As opposed to his offensive regression from '09 to '10, Upton was much better defensively, posting a .985 Fld% in '10 compared to .961 although he had just 1 assist compared to 4. Bill James' defensive metrics showed that Upton displayed great range. He had an off-year, but he's still a very good player. He'll be backed up by Parra and Gillespie. Upton is a great five-tool talent and the D-backs hope he can get back to using all five of those tools in '10.
Starting Rotation:
The D-backs' de facto ace is 26 year old right-hander and ex-Yankee Ian Kennedy. In his first full year as a starter, Kennedy did pretty well, going just 9-10, but with a 3.80 ERA and 168 K's compared to just 70 walks in 32 starts and 194 IP. He allowed just 163 hits for a 7.6 H/9 ratio, good for 9th-best in the NL. Kennedy certainly had his problems, though. He allowed 26 home runs, 7th in the NL, he hit 10 batters, 3rd in the league, and he threw 16 wild pitches, good for most in the league. Still, Kennedy was pretty unhittable, although he was certainly helped by a .261 BA on balls in play (BAbip; league average is around .300). Kennedy also out-hit one of Arizona's top power hitters this past season (Mark Reynolds, who was traded to Baltimore), hitting .204 with 2 RBI and a .290 OBP. Baseball-Reference gave him a 0.4 WAR (wins above replacement) hitting, and add that onto his 2.7 WAR pitching WAR, and he had a nice 3.1 WAR season. Kennedy was a bit lucky in '10 and certainly has some things to work on, but the D-backs hope his return to 'average' luck in '10 will be canceled out by his maturity as a pitcher.
The D-backs have to hope that they'll get some better production out of Joe Saunders, acquired in the Dan Haren trade. Saunders, a right-hander who will turn 30 in June, went just 9-17 between the LA Angels (of Anaheim) and the D-backs with a 4.47 ERA, 114 K's, and 64 walks in 33 starts and amazingly, 203.1 IP, the first time he has ever gone over 200 innings in a season. He went 3-7 with a 4.25 ERA for the D-backs. Saunders' main problem in '10 was hits allowed: he allowed 10.3 hits per 9 innings. But, that goes right along with his 9.7 career H/9. Saunders is a two-time 16 game winner (17 in '08 and 16 in '09), although his career ERA is just 4.29 and he has that bad H/9. In terms of hitting, there's not much to talk about. He hit just .087 with an RBI for the D-backs, although he did somehow steal a base. The D-backs just hope that Saunders can somehow maintain that 4.25 ERA he had in his 13 starts for them after they acquired him.
The Diamondbacks found lighting in a bottle with 23 year old right-hander Daniel Hudson in '10 (he will turn 24 in March). Hudson went 1-1 with a 6.32 ERA in 3 starts for the White Sox, but after the D-backs acquired him in the Edwin Jackson trade, he went 7-1 with a 1.69 ERA, 70 K's and just 16 walks in 11 starts and 79.2 IP. He allowed just 51 hits, good for a staggering 5.8 H/9. If Kennedy was unhittable, this guy was unstoppable. But, there are two factors that discourage me from thinking that Hudson is a ridiculous pitcher who will be dominating hitters for years to come: 1) he managed a 3.47 ERA in 93.1 Triple-A innings, which is OK, not great (although he did strike out 108 batters); and 2) he allowed just a .243 BAbip. How lucky is Hudson? Well besides that .243 BAbip, he also had 6 RBI despite just 4 hits (.148 BA). There's almost no way Hudson will manage another BAbip under .250, so the D-backs should just be hoping for that 3.47 ERA he posted at Triple-A. If Hudson puts that up, he might be the ace or number two starter on this team, but I'm placing him 3rd behind Kennedy and Saunders because I'm just really scared of what could happen if he allows a league average .300 BAbip.
There are three pitchers in contention for the last two spots in the Arizona rotation: Barry Enright, Zach Duke, and the recently acquired Armanda Galarraga. Enright, who will turn 25 in March went 6-7 with a 3.91 ERA, 49 K's, and 29 BB in 17 starts and 99 IP for the D-backs in '10. But, you have to be very worried about his 4.5 K/9 and terrible 1.8 HR/9 ratios. He also allowed just a .254 BAbip. But, he did have a 7.3 K/9 in the minors including an 8.9 K/9 at Double-A in '10. Enright is far from a sure thing, but you would think he could manage a decent ERA, at least under 4.50, if he can get that strikeout rate up to somewhere near his minor league levels. Hitting-wise, Enright was pretty incredible, hitting .252 with 6 RBI. While Enright was lucky, ex-Pirate Zack Duke was the exact opposite. Duke, 28 in April, went just 8-15 with a horrendous 5.72 ERA, 96 K's, and 51 walks in 29 starts, but just 159 IP. He allowed 212 hits, 12 per 9 innings, and 25 homers, 1.4 per 9, which isn't so bad unless you consider that Duke had the 3rd-best HR/9 ratio in the NL a few years ago. But, Duke is not as bad as the stats say he is. He had a crazy .343 BAbip. If that went down .300, Duke would have had at least a decent year. Duke posted a 4.95 FIP (fielding-independent pitching), which isn't great, or even good, but it's a heck of a lot better than his 5.72 ERA. Duke is not that bad of a pitcher. Duke hit just .063 with no RBI in '10, although he did have 8 sac bunts. There's almost no way Duke would be a complete disaster with an ERA over 5.20 as the D-backs' 5th starter. Galarraga, who recently turned 30, is what he is. He had his one moment in the limelight when Jim Joyce ruined his perfect game, but he went just 4-9 with a 4.49 ERA, just 74 strikeouts, and 51 walks in 24 starts, an RA (relief appearance), and 144.1 IP. He allowed 21 homers, a 1.3 HR/9, and 143 hits, an 8.9 H/9 ratio. He's an OK pitcher. He doesn't strike enough batters out to allow over 3 walks per 9 innings and nearly a hit per inning. At his best, Galarraga went 13-7 with a 3.78 ERA, 126 K's, and 61 walks in 28 starts, 2 RA's (relief appearances), and 178.2 IP. At his worst in '09, he went 6-10 with a 5.64 ERA, 95 K's, and 67 walks in 25 starts, 4 RA's, and 143.2 IP. Factoring the switch to the NL, Galarraga will probably post something like a 4.30 ERA. That's OK, but if Enright gets straightened out or Duke returns to his '09 form (4.06 ERA in 213 IP), they would certainly be better. We'll see what happens in spring training, but I think Enright and Duke should be the 4th and 5th starters, at least to begin the year, with Galarraga, who does have some relief experience, serving as a long reliever.
Bullpen:
Righty Juan Gutierrez had a really bad season, going 0-6 with a 5.08 ERA, 47 K's, 23 walks, 8 holds, and 15 saves in 58 RA's and 56.2 IP. Good thing he won't have to close again... at least you would think so. He posted a 6.87 ERA before previous closer Chad Qualls was traded compared to a 1.45 ERA after. What? That has to be an encouraging sign for the D-backs. He adjusted and had great success in his new role. Hopefully he can use that new experience of success in a late inning role to help him spring forward to a great 2011. Aaron Heilman went 5-8 with a 4.50 ERA, 55 K's, 26 walks, 12 holds, and 6 saves in 70 RA's and 72 IP. There has to be at least some worry that Heilman will collapse at age 32 after 5 straight seasons with over 70 appearances. Sam Demel, 25, went 2-1 with a 5.35 ERA, 33 K's, 12 walks, 4 holds, and 2 saves (0 blown saves) in 37 RA's and 37 IP. His main problem was that he allowed more than a hit per inning, although he did have a .325 BAbip. He posted an 8.0 K/9 and a great 2.9 BB/9, although he did allow 5 homers, 1.2 per 9. He could be a decent reliever in '11 for the D-backs if he just has 'average' luck. 27 year old right-hander Esmerling Vazquez had a just plain terrible season in '10. He appeared in 57 games, going 1-6 with a 5.20 ERA, 55 K's, 38 BB, and 6 holds in 53.2 IP. He simply walked too many batters, 6.4 per 9. That's a bit of a problem. He did post a 4.42 ERA in 53 RA's in '09, so the D-backs have to be optimistic that Vazquez wasn't as bad as his 2010 stats say he is. In exchange for Mark Reynolds, the D-backs acquired right-handers David Hernandez and Kam Mickolio from the Orioles. Hernandez, who wil turn 26 in May, went 8-8 with a 4.31 ERA, 72 K's, 42 walks, 2 holds, and 2 saves in 33 RA, 8 starts, and 79.1 IP. Those are decent stats. But, as a reliever, he was pretty solid, going 7-3 with a 3.16 ERA, and 45 K's compared to just 13 walks. Hernandez did pitch in mostly low leverage situations (hence the 2 holds, and not more), but he still had a nice season as a reliever and he's moving from the AL East to the NL West, so he could be a very effective reliever for the Diamondbacks. Mickolio, who will turn 27 in May, is a different story. He posted a 7.36 ERA in 3 RA's in '10. He even posted a 6.37 ERA in 30 appearances at Triple-A in '10! That's not good. Mickolio did post a 3.50 ERA in 35 Triple-A appearances in '09 and a 1.80 ERA in 17 appearances there in '08. He also posted a 2.63 ERA with 2 holds in 11 RA's for the Orioles in '09. Mickolio can't be that bad of a reliever. His ML numbers in '10 were such a small sample size, and he had just had a terrible off-year at Triple-A. I would expect something like his 4.32 career ERA in the majors. You have to notice that every reliever besides Hernandez posted an ERA 4.50 or higher in '10. You have to be worried about that.
Closer:
J.J. Putz is lined up to close for the D-backs in '11. Putz had an outstanding season as the setup man for the White Sox, going 7-5 with a 2.83 ERA, 65 strikeouts, just 15 walks, 14 holds, and 3 saves in 60 RA's and 54 IP. His last full season as a closer was 2007, when he went 6-1 with a 1.38 ERA, 82 K's, just 13 walks, and 40 saves in 68 RA's and 71.2 IP. It's a bad sign that he hasn't been a full-time closer since '07, but I think he'll be OK because of his great '10, and because at least he does have experience in the role. Plus, he's moving to the NL West. He should be fine at closer for the D-backs, saving 35 or 40 games with an ERA 2.90 or less.
Overview:
The D-backs have a decent offense, but they'll need a big bounce-back year from Justin Upton and continued success from Chris Young. The D-backs are decent defensively, but they have potential problems at the corner infield spots. The rotation is slightly below-average at best, and the bullpen is terrible, even though Putz will probably be great. The D-backs need everything to go right to contend in '11.
2010 record: 65-97, 5th in the NL West
Prediction: 70- 92, 5th in the NL West
The D-backs will contend if... Upton and Young have breakout seasons, Brandon Allen is a contender for Rookie of the Year, Mora somehow holds down 3rd base, Ian Kennedy keeps improving, Daniel Hudson still posts an ERA under 3.00, the 4th and 5th starters are surprises in a good way, and the bullpen doesn't completely collapse like it did in 2010.
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