What's wrong with Rivera?

Rivera's numbers this year have been pretty great, but something just isn't right. He has gone 3-3 with a 1.58 ERA and 32 saves in 58 games. He has allowed just 37 hits in 57 innings. He has allowed just 2 homers and 11 walks. But, you probably notice that I've left out a key stat: strikeouts. Rivera has struck out just 44 batters in 57 innings, a rate of 6.9 per 9 innings. Keep in mind that Rivera has a 9.8 K/9 the previous two seasons, in '08 and '09. Mo has been just disastrous in his last 5 games, going 0-1 with an 8.31 ERA. He has 3 saves and 2 blown saves during this stretch. In 4.1 IP, Rivera has given up 7 hits and 2 walks, and has just one strikeout. Has he just gotten old, or is something else wrong with him?

Obvously, if Rivera has finally begun to show his age, that's the reason for his problems. But, I think it may be for a different reason- he just isn't as comfortable in pressure situations anymore. For his career, Rivera has a 1.89 ERA in save situations. In '10, he has a 2.38 ERA, nearly half a run higher. So, now you may be wondering how the heck Rivera has a 1.58 ERA. Simple- he has a 0.39 ERA in 22 appearances in non-save situations. He has a 2.37 ERA in those situations over the course of his career. Rivera has been way better than his career average in situations with less pressure. Should he go into a Trevor Hoffman-like role next season and be demoted to a setup man? Also, one statistical oddity is that the platoon splits against Rivera have gone a bit against his career trends. In his career, Rivera has been better against lefties than righties, with lefties hitting .206 against him compared to .215 by righties. But in '10, it has been the opposite. Rivera has dominated righties, holding them to a .151 BA and no homers. But against lefties, Rivera has "struggled", allowing a .216 BA and 2 homers. It's pretty strange. So, besides the age factor, problems for Rivera have been pressure situations, a lower strikeout rate, and some struggles against lefties. Rivera just hasn't been the near-perfect pitcher that we all recognize. Hopefully that will change in the playoffs.

Will Grady Sizemore ever regain his pre-injury form?

Grady Sizemore used to be the best young outfielder in baseball. In 2005, his first full season for the Indians (he lost his rookie eligibility by hitting .246 in 43 games in 2004), he burst onto the scene. He hit .289 with 37 doubles, 22 homers, 81 RBI, 11 triples, 22 SB, 185 hits, 111 runs, and a .348 OBP in 158 games. It was an incredible all-around season, and a would be considered a great season, even for a veteran. In 2006, he only got better. He hit .290 with 53 doubles (tops in the league), 28 homers, 76 RBI, 11 triples, 22 SB, 190 hits, 134 runs (also tops in the league), and a .375 OBP in 162 games (obviously tied for most in the league). He was an All-Star and finished 11th in the MVP voting. He showed his ability as a great all-around player. If he had driven in more runs, he would have finished in the top 5 in the MVP voting. But, he was the leadoff hitter in 160 of his 162 games, and leadoff hitters generally don't drive in too many runs. In 2007, he also played in 162 games, hitting .277 with 34 doubles, 24 homers, 78 RBI, 5 triples, 33 SB, 174 hits, 118 runs, and a .390 OBP. He was an All-Star and a Gold Glover, and he finished 12th in the MVP voting. Then, he had another great year in '08, hitting .268 with 39 doubles, 33 homers, 90 RBI, 5 triples, 38 SB, 170 hits, 101 runs, and a .374 OBP in 157 games. Proving my earlier point, he finished 10th in the MVP voting, better than in '06 and '07, despite having worse overall numbers than those years because of his 90 RBI (if he had put up his '06 or '07 stats with 90 RBI, he would have finished top 5 in the MVP voting). He was also an All-Star, Gold Glover, and a Silver Slugger. That's pretty good for his 3rd-best year overall. Just 25, Sizemore was a budding superstar.

But, in '09, it all changed. Sizemore broke down. After playing in 162, 162, and 157 games respectively the three previous seasons, Sizemore played in 108 games due to an elbow injury, and did badly by his standards while he was out there, hitting just .248 with 20 doubles, 18 homers, 64 RBI, 6 triples, 13 SB, 108 hits, 73 runs, and a .343 OBP. When he came back in '10, he clearly wasn't back to full strength, as he hit just .211 with 6 doubles, 0 homers, 13 RBI, 2 triples, 4 SB, 27 hits, 15 runs, and just a .271 OBP before going down for the season after 33 games with a knee injury. Will Sizemore get back on track next season?

Let's search the baseball history books for cases where a great hitter missed significant time. Don Mattingly played in just 102 games in 1990 because of injuries and never had another 100 RBI season after having 100 RBI seasons 5 of the previous 6 years. Jason Giambi twice missed half a season due to injuries: in 2004, and 2007 (there was also a sickness involved). He recovered the first time by following it with a 32 homer, 87 RBI season and a 37 homer, 113 RBI season before getting injured again in '07. He did hit 32 homers and drive in 97 RBI in '08, but he then hit just .196 with 11 homers for Oakland in the first half of '09, and has been a bench player ever since. Rogers Hornsby averaged a .364 BA, 20 homers and 101 RBI from 1916 to 1929 before getting hurt in 1930. He never hit .340, slammed 20 homers, or drove in 100 runs again. Ken Griffey Jr. caught the injury bug in '01, and only had two 30-homer seasons after that, and no 100 RBI seasons (he had seven 30-homer seasons and eight 100 RBI seasons before '01). But, Griffey Jr. recovered after missing most of '95 to average 50 homers and 137 RBI the next five seasons before his '01 injury. Mickey Mantle averaged a .309 BA, 34 homers, and 96 RBI from 1951 to 1962, but after getting hurt in '63, he only had one more 30 homer and 90 RBI season, in '64. So, there have been several cases where great players got injured and never regained their previous form. But, these cases took place later in these players' careers.

But, then there's the flip-side. Babe Ruth recovered from a sickness in 1925 to average 47 homers and 145 RBI the next eight seasons. Joe Morgan played just 10 games in 1968, but averaged a .271 BA, 15 homers, 63 RBI, and 39 SB (great numbers for a 2nd baseman) in the next 16 years of his career. So, there's hope for Sizemore.

Morgan might be the most comparable case. Just like Morgan, Sizemore put together 3 great seasons before he got hurt. Also like Morgan, Sizemore has had a "bridge" year after his injury (Morgan hit just .236 in 1969). But 2011 will be the question. Morgan was an All-Star in 1970. Will Sizemore be an All-Star in 2011? We'll just have to wait and see. Whether it's for the Indians or another team (he was rumored to be traded to the Yankees earlier this year), Sizemore will certainly be given a chance in 2011. Can he show that 2009-2010 was just a blip on the radar?

The roller coaster that is Cliff Lee's career

We all know Cliff Lee as that dominant starter with great control, but he certainly wasn't always like that. A 4th round pick by the Expos, Lee had a terrible pro debut in 2000, going 1-4 with a 5.24 ERA in 11 starts for Short Season-A Cape Fear. He did strike out 63 batters in 44.2 IP, but he also allowed 52 hits and 36 walks. But, in 2001, Lee dominated for High-A Jupiter. He went 6-7, but he posted a 2.79 ERA and 132 K's in 20 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 109.2 IP. He allowed just 78 hits and 46 walks and posted a great 2.8 K/H. After going 7-2 with a 3.23 ERA and 105 K's in 15 starts for Double-A Harrisburg, he was traded in the blockbuster deal that sent Lee, Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips and Lee Stevens to the Indians in exchange for Bartolo Colon and Tim Drew. After struggling at Double-A Akron in 3 starts (5.40 ERA), he was promoted to Triple-A Buffalo and went 3-2 with a 3.77 ERA in 8 starts. He had a brief 'cup of coffee' in September for the Indians, going 0-1 with a 1.74 ERA in 2 starts. In '03, he went 7-1 with a 2.82 ERA in 14 starts at 3 different levels of the minors (including 6-1, 3.27 at Triple-A) before being promoted to the majors. He went 3-3 with a 3.61 ERA in 9 starts for Cleveland. In '04, his first full season in the big leagues, Lee certainly had his ups and downs. He went 14-8 with 161 K's in 33 starts and 179 innings, but he posted a 5.43 ERA and gave up 188 hits. He went 9-1 with a 3.77 ERA in the first half, but 5-7 with a 7.91 ERA in the second half. But, he closed the season well, winning his last 2 starts and posting a 2.03 ERA.

The great finish in '04 carried over into '05 for Lee. He had his first great season, going 18-5 with a 3.77 ERA and 143 K's in 33 starts and 202 IP. He allowed just 194 hits. He was much more consistent, going 9-4 with a 3.89 ERA in the first half and 9-1 with a 3.66 ERA in th, e second half. But, in '06, the consistency disappeared. He went 14-11 with a 4.40 ERA and 129 K's in 33 starts and 200.2 IP. He just allowed way too many hits (224). Lee went 8-6 with a 4.76 ERA in the first half before rebounding to go 6-5 with a 3.96 ERA in the 2nd half. In '07, Lee just plain collapsed. He went 5-8 with a 6.29 ERA and just 66 K's in 16 starts, 4 relief appearances and 97.1 IP. He allowed 112 hits, once again over a hit per inning. All 8 of his loses came on streaks of 4 straight loses in 4 consecutive starts. He was so bad that he was sent down for 10 starts in the minors and was left off Cleveland's postseason roster. Lee's strikeout total went down every year from '04 to '07. Although he proved he could be a good pitcher without striking too many batters out in '05, he allowed too many hits in '04, '06, and '07 to be successful without striking out batters at a higher rate.

Lee finally got the memo to give up less hits in '08. In doing so, he dominated, going 22-3 with a 2.54 ERA and 170 K's in 31 starts and 223.1 IP on his way to the AL Cy Young Award. He allowed just 214 hits and 34 walks. Lee seemingly carried the success into '09, going just 7-9, but with a 3.14 ERA and 105 K's in 22 starts for the Indians before being traded to the Phillies. But, Lee allowed 165 hits in 152 IP. He just pitched with runners on, not allowing many of them to score. For the Phillies, he actually did worse. He went 7-4, but with a 3.39 ERA and 74 K's in 12 starts and 79.2 IP. But, he was dominant in the postseason. In 5 postseason starts, he went 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA, including 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA against the Yankees in the World Series. He struck out 33 and walked only 6 in 40.1 IP. Still, after the season, he was traded to the Mariners shortly when the Phillies acquired Roy Halladay. In '09 for the Mariners, he regained his '08 form. After missing the first month of the season with an abdominal strain, he went 8-3 with a 2.34 ERA and 89 K's in 13 starts and 103.2 IP. But, the most amazing stat of all was that he walked just 6 batters. Six! His K/BB ratio was 14.83, which would be the best ever for a full season. (His current K/BB ratio of 13.42 between the Mariners and Rangers would still be the best ever by a wide margin.) He was then traded to the Rangers on July 9th, and he's been a complete disaster. He has gone just 2-5 with a 4.69 ERA and 72 K's in 11 starts and 80.2 IP. He has allowed 85 hits, over a hit per inning, but he has walked just 6 batters. But, the Rangers might have found the reason Lee has struggled: lower back inflamation. Lee got an injection and will try to get back on track against the Yankees tomorrow.

Lee has had good years and bad years, but at the end of the day he has a 100-60 career record with a 3.89 ERA. He has gone from demoted to the minor leagues to AL Cy Young and from a dominant pitcher for Seattle to a disaster for Texas. He has been good overall, but he has shown inconsistency. Would you want to commit to this guy for 5 years? The Yankees and the other bidders when Lee will be a free agent this offseason will have to make that decision.