Uggla to Atlanta

The Florida Marlins have traded star second baseman Dan Uggla to the Atlanda Braves in exchange for utility player Omar Infante and lefty reliever Mike Dunn.

Uggla and the Marlins could not agree on a contract extension, so the Marlins traded him. (I talked about why in this post: "Why are the Florida Marlins in a bad situation with Dan Uggla? The Arizona Diamondbacks".) The Marlins reportedly offered Uggla a 4-year, 48 million dollar extension, but Uggla and his agent wanted a 5-year, 71 million dollar deal. The Braves will most likely give Uggla what he wants. Uggla had a great year in '10, hitting .287 with 31 doubles, 33 homers, 105 RBI, and a .369 OBP in 159 games, and winning the NL Silver Slugger Award at second base. He posted a below-average .976 Fld% at second base with below average range, but I remember him making a few web gems. He's not a good defensive player, but his offense certainly makes up for it. But, as I said in my previous post, Uggla will be 31 in March. The Marlins didn't want to give him an extension that would take him to him 36th birthday, when he certainly would be beginning to decline. In contrast to the Marlins, who are rebuilding, the Braves are in win-now mode. They acquired Uggla in an attempt to make a World Series within a few years.

Infante is a very interesting player. He's a .300 hitter who plays everywhere. He has played over 340, 225, and 101 games respectively at second base, third base, and shortstop. He has also played 57 games in LF, 32 games in CF, and 15 games in RF. He has never played first base or catcher, and surprisingly, he has never pitched. Still, he's a very valuable player. In '10, he hit .321 with 15 doubles, 8 homers, 47 RBI, 7 steals, and a .359 OBP in 134 games. The .321 BA was third in the NL. He started 63 games at second, 18 at SS. 12 games at third, 8 games in LF, and 5 in RF. His great versatility even earned him an All-Star selection (he didn't play). For the Marlins, Infante could basically by a stop-gap at any position they need him to be until their top prospect at that position is ready. It's always nice to have a player like Infante. He can be the starter at third base now (with Chris Coghlan playing second base, his natural position), and then move into a utility role when top third base prospect Matt Dominguez makes it to the majors. Infante will help the team now as a starting infielder, while they're rebuilding, and could potentially help the team as a utility-man if they become a contender.

Dunn will be playing for his third team in 3 years. Either everyone wants him, or no one wants him. Dunn apparently has a promising future as a lefty specialist. In '10 for the Braves, he went 2-0 with a 1.89 ERA and 27 K's in 25 relief appearances and 19 IP. He shuts down lefties, holding them to a .211 BA. But, he holds righties to a .212 BA apparently showing that he could be a setup man shutting down both lefties and righties. Really, Dunn is much better against lefties. Although lefties were only .001 worse against him, his K/BB against them was 3.00: 18 K's versus 6 walks in 44 plate appearances. But, against the righties, his K/BB was just 0.82: 11 K's versus 12 walks. He's clearly much more comfortable against lefties. Even as just a lefty specialist, Dunn will be a valuable part of the Marlins' bullpen.

What's going on with 2009 NL ROY Chris Coghlan?

I just did a post on whether Marlins prospect Mike Stanton is ready for the majors, so it got me thinking about the Marlins outfield. Then I saw the stats on the Marlins left fielder, 2009 NL Rookie of the Year Chris Coghlan. He is really doing bad. What's going on?

Marlins LF Chris Coghlan was called to the majors on May 8th, 2009, going 2 for 4. But, after starting off with a bang, Coghlan really slowed down. He was hitting just .143 on May 23rd, and just .212 on May 31th. But then he hit .294 in June to improve his BA to .262. But then he hit .231 in July which sent his BA down to .252. The Marlins were waiting to see which Coghlan they would see- the May and July version who struggled, or the June version who did fine. Coghlan showed that he really would excel, as he hit .385 in August and .390 in September/October. He finished batting .321 with 31 doubles, 6 triples, 9 homers, 47 RBI, 8 SB, 84 runs, and a .390 OBP in 128 games. He did have some struggles defensively in left field, as he posted just .977 Fld% (league average: .982). Still, he was good enough to win the NL Rookie of the Year award over J.A. Happ, Tommy Hanson, and others. The Marlins had big expectations for him entering this year.

Right now in 2010, Coghlan is hitting just .237 with 6 doubles, 3 homers, 15 RBI, 6 stolen bases, and a .284 OBP in 49 games. His power numbers and stolen bases are on pace to be better than '09, but the .237 BA and .284 OBP are very low. Last year at this time, Coghlan was hitting just .213, but with a much better .356 OBP. Also, since Coghlan debuted on May 8th, his 49th game with July 1st. He was hitting .262 after 49 games with a .360 OBP. Coghlan has struggled before, but not like this. Let's look into the stats to find out what's going on.

Let's start with some very clear differences between Coghlan '09 season and his '10 season. In '09, he got very lucky- he hit .365 on balls in play, but in '10 his BA on balls in play is .294, a big difference. In '09, Coghlan, who bats lefty, hit .323 against righties and .316 against lefties. It didn't make that much of a difference whether he was facing a righty or a lefty- in both cases he did well. But in '10, Coghlan has hit just .250 against righties and .204 against lefties. He's bad overall so far in '10, but now also lefties neutralize him. That obviously is a big problem.

Now, let's look at Coghlan's clutch stats. In '09, Coghlan hit .352 with runners in scoring position. But in those situations in '10, Coghlan has hit just .174. In '09, Coghlan hit .342 with runners on base, compared to .250 so far in '10. Also, Coghlan hit .308 with 2 outs and runners and scoring position in '09, but he has hit just .176 in those situations in '10.

In 2009, there were 427 times where Coghlan hit a ball in play excluding sac bunts and sac flies (it could have been a foul ball caught by fielders). About 48.2% of those hits were grounders, about 27% of them were fly balls, about 23.4% were line drives, and 1.4% of his hits were bunts. So far in '10, Coghlan has hit 145 balls in play besides sac flies and sac bunts. About 59.3% of those hits have been grounders, 20% of those hits have been fly balls, about 19.3% have been line drives, and about 1.4% have been bunts. So, he's hitting grounders at a way higher rate in '10, and that has caused him to hit fewer fly balls and fewer line drives.

So, to sum up this post, the reason Coghlan is doing much worse in '10 than '09 is that unlike '09, lefties are neutralizing him, he is hitting much worse in the clutch, and he is hitting ground balls at a much higher rate. He'll just have to work with his hitting coach to fix those problems.

Here's the link to the Mike Stanton post: http://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/659425-is-marlins-prospect-mike-stanton-ready-for-the-majors.