Should the Yankees have traded for Lee?

The Rangers acquired Cliff Lee in exchange for Justin Smoak and 3 other prospects. The Mariners thought it was a good offer, even better than the Yankees' offer of Jesus Montero and 3 other prospects. They must have thought that Smoak will be a star. Were they wrong?

Smoak was the 11th overall pick in the loaded first round of the 2008 MLB draft. There obviously were busts (most notably #1 overall pick Tim Beckham), but the players that have panned out are Pedro Alvarez (#2 overall), Brian Matusz (#4), Buster Posey (#5), and Gordon Beckham (#8). Ike Davis (#18) was drafted after Smoak. I realize that it's not completely fair to compare Smoak to the players, but let's do it anyway.

It took Alvarez just 1.5 seasons to get to the majors. He hit .288 with 32 doubles, 27 homers, 95 RBI, and a .378 OBP in 126 games between Low-A Lynchburg and Double-A Altoona in '09. After hitting .277 with 15 doubles, 13 homers, 53 RBI, and a .363 OBP in 66 games for Triple-A Indianapolis, Alvarez was called up to the majors. Alvarez had a pretty good year after being called up on June 16th, hitting just .256, but with 21 doubles, 16 homers, and 64 RBI. His OBP was .326. He does need work defensively, as he posted just a .938 Fld% at 3rd base. He will be just 23 in '11, so he will have time to develop into a better player both offensively and defensively at the major league level. Alvarez is a nice young player who will be a cornerstone of the Pirates for years to come.

Brian Matusz made it to the majors in under 1 season. After a dominating minor league season in '09 between Low-A Frederick and Double-A, Matusz made it to the majors at age 22. Matusz went 11-2 with a 1.91 ERA and 121 K's in 19 starts and 113 innings in the minors, and 5-2 with a 4.63 ERA and 38 K's in 8 starts and and 44.2 IP in the majors. Matusz improved in '10, going 10-12 with a 4.30 ERA and 143 K's in 32 starts and 175.2 IP. Matusz was just 4-12 with a 5.28 ERA on August 13th, but went undefeated the rest of the year, going 6-0 with a 1.57 ERA in his last 8 starts. The Orioles won all 8 of those games. Matusz really has a promising future. Pretty soon he will be the Orioles' ace.

Buster Posey dominated the minors for parts of 3 seasons before making it to the majors at age 22. Unlike Alvarez and Matusz, Posey signed soon enough to play in '08. He played in 10 games between Rookie ball and SS-A Salem Keizer, hitting .351 with 5 doubles, 1 homer, 6 RBI, and a .467 OBP. It was a sign of things to come. Posey had another great season in '09, hitting .325 with 31 doubles, 18 homers, 80 RBI, 84 runs, and a .416 OBP in 115 games between High-A San Jose and Triple-A Fresno. But, Posey had 14 passed balls at catcher, so he began '10 at Fresno. He hit very well once again, hitting .349 with 13 doubles, 6 homers, 32 RBI, and a .442 OBP in 47 games while only allowing one passed ball. He was then promoted to the majors, and is a candidate to win NL Rookie of the Year. He hit .305 with 23 doubles, 18 homers, 67 RBI, and a .357 OBP in 108 games. He posted a .991 Fld% at catcher, throwing out 37% of attempted base stealers, and allowing just 1 passed ball. He is a very talented player who will be the catcher for the Giants for a long time.

Gordon Beckham took just 1 full season in the minors to make the majors at age 22. After signing early enough to play in '08, Beckham hit .310 with 2 doubles, 3 homers, and 8 RBI, and a .365 OBP in 14 games at Low-A Kannapolis. It was a stepping stone to a great season. He hit .326 with 23 doubles, 4 homers, 25 RBI, and a .378 OBP in 45 games between Double-A Birmingham and Triple-A Charlotte before being promoted to the majors. He did OK in the majors, hitting .270 with 28 doubles, 14 homers, 63 RBI, and a .347 OBP in 103 games. But, he posted a below-average .952 Fld% at 3rd base. He was the Sporting News AL Rookie of the Year and finished 5th in the real voting. He had a bit of a sophmore slump in '10, hitting .252 with 25 doubles, 9 homers, 49 RBI, and a .317 OBP in 131 games. Part of the problem was that he was moved to 2nd base, where he posted a below average .981 Fld%. But, he hit .320 from July 20th to the end of the year. Whatever his problem was, he fixed it. He should be a White Sox' infielder for a long time. Despite his sub-par year, I wouldn't be too surprised if the White Sox lock him up long term.

Davis needed 1.5 full seasons in the minors before making the majors at age 23. He signed the earliest among this group, and ended up playing 58 games for SS-A Brooklyn and was a disappointment. He hit just .256 with 15 doubles, 0 homers, 17 RBI, and a .326 OBP. But, that was the last time that Davis was a disappointment. He hit .298 in '09 between High-A St. Lucie and Double-A Binghamton with 31 doubles, 20 homers, 71 RBI, and a .381 OBP in 114 games. After just 10 games for Triple-A Buffalo in '10 in which he hit .364 with 3 doubles, 2 homers, 4 RBI, and a .500 OBP, Davis was promoted to the majors. He had a great rookie season, hitting .264 with 33 doubles, 19 homers, 71 RBI, and a .341 OBP in 147 games. He was right at the league average with a .993 Fld% at 1st base. I'll make a bold statement and say that he's the next David Wright. He'll be a fixture at 1st base for the Mets.

Well, I've gone through everybody else. So, how good is Smoak?

In his first taste of pro ball in '08, Smoak hit .304 with 3 doubles, 3 homers, and 6 RBI in 14 games at Low-A Clinton. He didn't make any errors in 10 games at 1st base. It was definitely a nice showing, albeit in such a short period of time.

In '09, Smoak worked his way all the way up to Triple-A. After hitting .667 with 2 homers and 5 RBI at Rookie ball, Smoak was promoted to Double-A Frisco where he hit .328 with 10 doubles, 6 homers, 29 RBI, and a .449 OBP in 50 games. It was a great showing, and he appeared to be on the fast track to the majors. He was so good at Frisco that he was brought up to Triple-A Oklahoma City, but there he struggled. In 54 games, Smoak hit just .244 with 11 doubles, 4 homers, and 23 RBI. But, Smoak did post a .363 OBP,which was great when considering his Low BA. But, he was just 23 years old, so he could adjust to Triple-A in '10.

Did Smoak make that adjustment? Well, after 15 games at Oklahoma City, Smoak hit .300 with 6 doubles, 2 homers and 5 RBI before being rushed to the majors. Smoak had his moments with the Rangers, but mostly he struggled. He hit just .209, but with 10 doubles, 8 homers, and 34 RBI. He posted a .318 OBP. Then of course, he was traded to the Mariners in the Lee trade. He remained with the Mariners from July 10th to July 29th and struggled mightily. He hit just .159 with 1 double, 2 homers, and 5 RBI in 16 games. To compound the problem, he posted just a .169 OBP, walking once and striking out 23 skill. After that terrible showing, Smoak was sent down to Triple-A Tacoma. He did just OK for Tacoma, hitting .271 with 7 doubles, 7 homers, and 25 RBI, although he did post a .377 OBP. But, somehow the work at Triple-A helped him, and he was a different player when he came back to the majors on September 18th. He hit .340 with 3 doubles, 3 homers, and 9 RBI in 14 games from September 18th to October 3rd. Overall in '10, Smoak hit .218 with 14 doubles, 13 homers, 48 RBI, and a .307 OBP in 100 games. It was a disappointment, but the Mariners hope his great finish to the year will carry over into '11. He will have 1 major league season under his belt (he will be 24), and the Mariners hope that experience will jump-start a great career.

Among the others, Smoak is certainly not the best right now. Posey is far and away the top player in this group, then Davis, Alvarez, and Beckham in that order before Smoak. But, does he have the ability to be a great player? Well, the Mariners must think so. If he really deserved the Teixeira comparisons he was getting while on the Rangers, then he will be a great player.

Will the Lee trade end up being a good trade for the Mariners? There are 3 other players that Seattle acquired, but the trade will end up being graded based on Smoak's performance. If he never becomes a star, it was a bad trade. As of now, if I were a Mariners fan, I would have wished for Lee to be traded to the Yankees for Montero.

Who's ahead in the race for the NL ROY?

The NL Rookie of the Year race has so many good candidates this year. You have Stephen Strasburg, Jason Heyward, Mike Leake, Jaime Garcia, and Ike Davis. Let's go through the stats for each player and see who's really ahead in the ROY race.

Stephen Strasburg has lived up to all the hype. He is 2-2 with a 2.27 ERA and 48 K's in 5 starts and 31.2 IP. His K/9 ratio is 13.6 and his BB/9 is 2.0, both incredible. His K/BB, is 6.86. In addition, he has given up just 7.1 hits and 0.7 homers per 9 innings. His record is only 2-2 because the Nationals haven't scored any runs for him twice, and they only scored 1 run for him once. On a better team, he could be 4-1 right now. Strasburg has really been incredible so far this year.

Jason Heyward of the Braves has proven to be a good hitter so far this year. He is hitting just .251, but with 13 doubles, 11 homers, 45 RBI, and a .366 OBP in 71 games. He hit just .181 with 1 homer and 7 RBI in June, so that's why his numbers don't stand out as much as they did earlier in the year. He has still been a very clutch player, despite the recent slump, as he has hit .306 with runners in scoring position and .298 with runners on base at all (he hits .209 with the bases empty). I did a post on Heyward earlier in the year (http://11ornothing.blogspot.com/2010/04/whats-going-on-with-jason-heyward.html), if you want to check that out. Despite the slump and injury, Heyward is certainly a competitor for the NL ROY.

Mike Leake of the Reds skipped the minors and has done well for the Reds so far in '10. He has gone 5-1 with a 3.30 ERA and 62 K's in 15 starts and 95.1 IP. He has posted a sub-par 5.9 K/9, but a decent 3.6 BB/9. Leake has had bad starts (5 or more earned runs) in 3 of his last 4 starts to almost pull himself out of this race. But, if he gets on a roll like he did at the beginning of the year, he will have a shot.

After faltering in an '08 callup, Jaime Garcia of the Cardinals has returned to the majors and excelled. He has gone 7-4 with a 2.27 ERA and 70 K's in 15 starts and 87.1 IP. He has posted a 7.2 K/9 and a 3.8 BB/9, for a 1.89 K/BB ratio. He has also been hard to hit, giving up just 7.5 hits and 0.4 homers per 9 innings. Garcia wasn't very well known before this year, but he really has a shot to win the NL ROY.

Mets 1st basman Ike Davis has been a pretty good hitter so far in '10. He has hit .261 with 14 doubles, 9 homers, 34 RBI, and a .335 OBP in 65 games. He has also been a great defensive 1B. After hitting .324 in April with a homer and 6 RBI (he debuted on April 19th), he hit just .235 in May with 4 homers and 9 RBI. He did rebound with a .264 BA, 4 homers, and 19 RBI in June, but he still is hitting just .261. He is hitting .284 with runners in scoring position. In addition, Davis has been a great defensive 1B. Davis has really cooled off from his hot start. He'll have to get back to that level in the 2nd half of the year to be in NL ROY contention.

At this point, it seems that Stephen Strasburg and Jaime Garcia are the leaders in the NL ROY race. But, all young starters have an innings limit, so that will certainly hurt them. If he can stay healthy, Jason Heyward could sneak up on them and win the award. Of course, it's also possible that one of the other rookies that I may or may not have listed here could get hot in the 2nd half and be the NL ROY. Like everything else in sports, we'll just have to see what happens.