2011 MLB Preview: St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals were a big disappointment in '10, finishing second in the NL Central, 5 games back of the Reds, despite great years for Albert Pujols (as usual), Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, and Matt Holliday. Now, Wainwright is hurt and the Cardinals' playoff hopes are already hanging by a thread. With Albert Pujols not signing a contract extension before spring training, all the pressure is on the Cardinals to make the playoffs in 2011. Are they good enough to do so without Wainwright?

Catcher:

Yadier Molina is entering his 7th full season as the Cardinals' starting catcher. Yadier, the youngest of the catching Molina brothers at age 28, had a decent year offensively, hitting .262 with 19 doubles, 6 homers, 62 RBI (a career-high), 8 stolen bases, and a .329 OBP in 136 games. Molina has been a fairly consistent offensive player over the course of his career, hitting between 15 and 26 doubles, between 6 and 8 homers, and driving in between 40 and 62 runs each full season of his career. But, his BA has not been anywhere near as consistent varying from .216 to .304. What's the reason for that? When he hit .254 in '05 and .216 in '06, Molina had BAbip's of .254 and .226 respectively. When he hit .292 from '07 to '09, he had a .306 BAbip. He had a .281 BAbip in '10. Like post players, Molina's BA has been greatly effected by his BAbip. The big difference in BAbip for Molina was because of an improved line drive rate. He had just a 14% LD% in '05, but he improved that to 19% in '06, and 21% the past 4 seasons, including a career high 22% LD% in 2010. Molina was pretty unlucky to hit .262 in '10. But, where he wasn't unlucky was his .329 OBP, his lowest since '06. For his career, Molina has walked 49% of the time when a plate appearance reached a 3-ball count, but he walked just 44% of the time in those plate appearances in 2010. He put the ball in play on a 3-ball count 41% of the time, actually lower than his 42% IP% on 3-ball counts for his career, but he struck out 13% of his plate appearances with a 3-ball count, compared to 9% for his career. These numbers with 3-ball counts might be a complete fluke, so we'll just have to see what happens in 2011. No matter what problems Molina has offensively, his defense will still make his a good player. Molina was amazing again defensively in '10, posting a .995 Fld% and a ridiculous 49% CS% (still only the third-best of his career). He did allow 7 passed balls, but even so, he had a 1.7 dWAR (compared to his 1.4 oWAR), 4th in the NL to three outfielders, Michael Bourn, Angel Pagan, and Justin Upton. Molina won his 3rd consecutive Gold Glove at catcher in 2010. Molina is due for a rebound offensively, and his defense is just so great that it's hard not to peg him for a "great" overall year in 2011. The Cardinals have a great situation overall at catcher with Yadier Molina's outstanding defense and pretty good offense.

The Cardinals signed veteran catcher Gerald Laird this offseason to back up Molina. Laird, actually just 31 years old, (I honestly thought he was several years older, but considering he has a 23 year old brother, Brandon Laird, in the Yankees organization, I probably should have known that he wasn't that much older), hit .207 as the Tigers' backup catcher in '10 with 11 doubles, 5 homers, 25 RBI, and a .263 OBP in 89 games. He had a .243 BAbip despite a 20% LD%, so maybe his BA could improve significantly in 2011 (not that it would make a huge difference). Laird wasn't as awesome defensively in '10 as he was in '09 (when he posted a .997 Fld% and a 42% CS%), but he still posted a .991 Fld% and a 34% CS%. The Cardinals won't lose too much defensively when Laird subs in for Molina. Laird is a fine backup to Molina.

First base:

No matter what anybody says, Albert Pujols is a ridiculous player. In 2010, Pujols posted his lower oWAR (7.2) since 2007, yet he still hit .312 with 39 doubles, 42 homers, 118 RBI, 115 runs, 183 hits, 14 stolen bases, and a .414 OBP in 159 games. The 115 runs, 42 homers, and 118 RBI all led the NL, and he also led the lead with 38 intentional walks. Add in that Pujols walked 103 times while striking out 76 times. Even when he wasn't being intentionally walked 40 times a year, Pujols still didn't strike out more times than he walked- over the course of his minor league career, Pujols struck out more than he walked just 1 time, his rookie season of 2001. He actually had 'just' a .297 BAbip in '10, compared to his .314 career BAbip. He posted his regular 21% LD% and a 15.6 HR/FB that was pretty much his career average of 15.7% as well. Pujols is just such a consistent player. There's no reason to think he won't continue his consistency in 2011.Defensively however, Pujols posted a -0.2 dWAR, second lowest of his career. I can't really understand why (he had a .998 Fld% and ridiculously above-average range, posting 10.53 RF/9 and a 10.29 RF/G compared to the league averages of 6.52 and 6.37 respectively), but he somehow posted just a 1.5 UZR (Pujols posted a 24.7 UZR in 2007, just as a means of comparison). Even if he was actually sub-par defensively, Pujols is obviously still a amazing player. There's just no comparison between him and any other player to him offensively. Albert Pujols is still an amazing player for the Cardinals.
Pujols has averaged 146 games per season in his career, so obviously, the Cardinals don't have a true first base backup. On those couple days this season in which Pujols needs a day off, or if and when he gets hurt (he has been dealing with elbow problems), he will be backed up by either Lance Berkman or Allen Craig if he makes the team. I'll address Berkman when I talk about right field. Craig, who has an opportunity to make the team as a backup at all four corner positions, is a 26 year old utility player who was primarily a third baseman and left fielder in the minors, but did play 93 games at first base, posting a .994 Fld%. Craig hit .320 in the minors in '10 with 24 doubles, 14 homers, 81 RBI, and a .389 OBP in just 83 minor league games. He posted a .986 Fld% in left field, a .990 Fld% at first base, and just an .800 Fld% in 6 games in left field. In the majors, Craig hit .246 (.282 BAbip) with 7 doubles, 4 homers, 18 RBI, and a .298 OBP in 44 games, posting a perfect 1.000 Fld% in 30 games in right field (with below-average range), 5 games in left field, and 5 games in right field, but he posted a .000 Fld% in 2 games in third base, making an error on his only fielding chance. (He also played one game at second base, but he didn't have a single ball hit to him.) Those stats mean almost nothing; we'll have to see how Craig does in a full season as a backup. Craig has hit .322 the last two seasons at Triple-A (although he did have a .351 BAbip), so you would think that either the Cardinals promote him to the majors now, or maybe give him one more year at Triple-A so he could possibly take over for Pujols at first base in 2012. Maybe the Cardinals should keep Craig in the minors for most of 2011, considering they have Nick Punto, when healthy, to back up David Freese at 3rd base, and Jon Jay to be the outfield backup. Craig will probably make the team anyway, if only because the Cardinals have no real 5th outfielder. The Cardinals have depth behind Pujols if they ever need to use it.

Second base:

31 year old Skip Schumaker is lined up to be the Cardinals' starting second baseman for the third year in a row. Schumaker actually had a pretty bad year in '10, hitting .265 with 18 doubles, 5 homers, 42 RBI, 5 stolen bases, and a .328 OBP in 137 games. Schumaker wasn't good in any of those stats. Schumaker even had a .294 BAbip! But, that .294 BAbip came along with a 22% LD%, so it should have been higher. Schumaker owns a 21% career LD%, and accordingly, he owns a .322 career BAbip. Maybe when that evens out, Schumaker will hit .300 again in 2011 (he hit .300 each season from '07 to '09). (Schumaker's 3.0% HR/FB was right around his career average of 3.2%.) Even if Schumaker hits .300 though, he still wouldn't be more than a decent player, considering he has no power and no speed. But, Schumaker is great defensively, right? Well, Schumaker was once a very good defensive outfielder, but since being converted to second base, he's been a below-average defender, posting a .978 Fld% (league average .984), although he has shown good range (4.96 RF/9 compared to league average of 4.82). In two seasons at second base, he owns a combined -22.8 UZR. Schumaker is a decent player overall at best and because of him, the Cardinals have a questionable situation at second base.

Tyler Greene and Daniel Descalso will likely make the Astros' big league roster to begin the year (with Punto hurt), and you have to wonder whether one of them could eventually wrestle the starting second base job from the unimpressive Schumaker. Before looking at any other stats, you would have to give Descalso a leg up because he has logged 343 professional games at second base compared to Greene's 22, all in the majors.

Greene, 27, appeared in 44 major league games in '10, hitting just .221 with 3 doubles, 2 homers, 10 RBI, 2 stolen bases, and a .328 OBP. It was a limited sample size, but he was bad. He had just a .266 BAbip despite a 20% LD%, but he had just a 65% IP%, so less hits had an opportunity to drop in. Defensively, he was even worse, posting a .934 Fld% at SS, albeit with good range, a .935 Fld% at second base with bad range, and a .929 Fld% at third base with good range. Even though he showed good range at short and third, his fielding percentages were so bad that it didn't even matter. At Triple-AMemphis in '10, Greene hit .284 with 21 doubles, 9 homers, 34 RBI, 12 stolen bases, and a .355 OBP in 82 games. But, he needed a .373 BAbip to hit .284. Defensively, Greene posted above-average range at short, but he again posted a below-average .963 Fld%. Green could be a decent backup for the Cards, but it doesn't seem like he could be a starter for any major league team right now.

Descalso, 24, appeared in 11 major league games in '10, hitting .265 with 2 doubles, 4 RBI, and a .324 OBP. He was perfect in 9 games at third base and 1 at shortstop. In the minors in '10, Descalso hit .282 at Triple-A Memphis with 32 doubles, 9 homers, 71 RBI, 86 runs, 8 stolen bases, and a .350 OBP in 116 games. Descalso struck out 48 times and walked 47 times, an impressive if not quite Pujols-esque ratio. He also had a .295 BAbip, so his .282 BA was no fluke. He posted a below-average .973 Fld% at second base, but with great range, and he also posted an 1.000 Fld% in 6 games at first base. Descalso seems like he could be a better player than Schumaker. He'll have an opportunity to prove himself at the big league level while Nick Punto is out, and if he can show some flashes of brilliance, maybe he'll have an opportunity to remain on the big league club and challenge Schumaker for the second base job. Daniel Descalso could be a good player for the Cardinals in the coming years. Between Greene and Descalso, the Cardinals have good depth behind Schumaker at second base, but again, Schumaker is a questionable starter.

Third base:

David Freese is healthy again, and he has another opportunity to seize the Cardinals' third base job. Up until June 27th, 2010, Freese, who will turn 28 in late April, was doing pretty well as the Cardinals' third baseman, hitting .296 with 12 doubles, 4 homers, 36 RBI, and a .361 OBP in 70 games. Freese had a crazy .376 BAbip, but that was actually because of an incredible 23% LD%. Also, Freese did have a .353 BAbip in the minors. He was unlucky though to have a 4.6% HR/FB. Defensively, Freese posted a .950 Fld% at third base (league average .951), but showed very good range. Everything was going well for Freese in his rookie season. But, on June 27th, Freese injured his right ankle. And while on a rehab assignment, he dropped a weight on his left foot, and later re-injured his right ankle. Those injuries kept him out the rest of the season. Freese seems like he's a good player, but he has to stay healthy. If you project Freese's 2010 stats over a full season (he played in 70 of the team's 75 games, so these projections are for 151 games), he would have hit .296 with 26 doubles, 9 homers, 78 RBI, and a .361 OBP, although obviously he could've had a hot month or an extended slump that could have changed his stats quite a bit. Those are certainly good stats. David Freese, if he can stay healthy, will be a good player for the Cardinals in 2011.

Freese will be backed up by Nick Punto when healthy, Allen Craig, and Daniel Descalso. Punto, 33, hit .238 for the Twins in '10, with 11 doubles, 1 homer, 20 RBI, 6 stolen bases, and a .313 OBP in 88 games. He was a starter most of the first half of the year before being replaced by Danny Valencia. Defensively, he showed above-average range at third base, shortstop, and second base, but while he posted a perfect 1.000 Fld% at third base, he posted a .962 Fld% at shortstop and just a .936 Fld% at second base. As I've referred to several times already, right at the beginning of spring training Punto suffered a sports hernia injury that required surgery. He'll be out until late April. While Punto's out, as I've mentioned, Tyler Greene and Daniel Descalso have an opportunity to prove themselves at the big league level, and since Punto isn't an incredible player himself, I wouldn't be all that surprised if Punto is traded not too long after he comes back if either Greene or Descalso shows an ability to be a utility player of Punto's level and more. The good news for the Cardinals as that even though Freese may be a fragile player, they have good depth behind him.

Shortstop:

31 year old middle infielder Ryan Theriot, acquired from the Dodgers this offseason for Blake Hawksworth, had a decent offensive season in 2010, hitting .270 with 15 doubles, 2 homers, 29 RBI, 20 stolen bases, and a .321 OBP in 150 games between the Cubs and Dodgers. Theriot is in the middle of a bad 3-year trend in which his BA has gone done each year (.307 in '08 to .284 in '09, to .270 in '10), and so have his hits (178 to 171 to 158), runs (85 to 81 to 72), stolen bases (22 to 21 to 20), and OBP (.387 to .343 to .321). What's been going on? Those were Theriot's age 28, 29, and 30 seasons, which were supposed to be his prime! Why did he begin to decline so early? Well, in turns out that Theriot's BAbip has been going down as well, going from down from .339 in '08 to .323 in '09 to .305 in '10. And why has that been happening? A decrease in LD% from 22% to 19% to 18%. In addition Theriot's IF/FB has gone up from 5% to 6% to 9%, which isn't that big of a deal, but it just make his BA and BAbip a bit worse. Is there any chance that Theriot rebounds in 2011? Well, one of Theriot's stats from the last three seasons would give you hope: IP%. Theriot's IP% went from 79% in 2008 to 75% in 2009, up to 80% in 2010. Theriot hit so many balls in play, but only an average amount found holes. Maybe if he could put up such a high IP% again, he'll get a bit more lucky and have a BAbip that's around .320 again. If he can put up a .320 BAbip again, he'll at least hit .280 again, which would be an improvement. Theriot isn't a great offensive player, but the Cardinals obviously want everything they can get from him offensively. Defensively in 2010, Theriot posted above average fielding percentages at second base and shortstop, .986 and .974 respectively. But, he showed below average range at both positions. That's also been Theriot's trend for his career- he owns above-average .987 and .976 fielding percentages at second base and shortstop respectively, but again he has shown below-average range. When you couple Theriot's fringy offense with his below-average defense, it becomes pretty clear that he's nothing more than a decent player. Maybe he's better than the other options the Cardinals had (Brenden Ryan, who has since been traded to the Mariners, and I guess Greene [Descalso doesn't really play shortstop]), but he's still not that great of a player. He'll be backed up by Greene and Punto when he comes back. Ryan Theriot will be a decent player overall for the Cardinals in '10, but nothing more.

Left Field:

Matt Holliday will be patroling left field for the Cardinals again in '11, just as he will until 2016. Holliday, now 31 years old, hit .312 in '10 with 45 doubles, 28 homers, 103 RBI, 95 runs, 186 hits, and a .390 OBP in 158 games. Holliday had a .331 BAbip, actually lower than his career BAbip of .348, despite his regular 21% LD%. He also had an 11.2% HR/FB compared to his career average of 11.6% (if it had been 11.6%, he would of had 29 homers). Holliday just had a great year as usual for him. Defensively, Holliday was slightly above-average, posting a .989 Fld% compared to the league average of .985 with average range (1.80 RF/9 compared to the league average of 1.82). He also had 8 outfield assists. Holliday's defense doesn't hold him back at all (well, most of the time- 2009 NLDS comes to mind). He's not quite Pujols, but he's certainly a great player in his own right and deserving of that 7 year, 120 million dollar contract that the Cardinals gave him.

Holliday will be backed up by Allen Craig and Jon Jay. Jay, who will turn 26 on March 15th, made his major league debut in '10, and played very well for a backup, hitting .300 with 19 doubles, 4 homers, 27 RBI, and a .359 OBP in 105 games. Jay had his struggles in right field, posting a .986 Fld% that was exactly the league average with poor range, but he was perfect in centerfield while showing great range, and he was also perfect in 9 games in left field. Jay was primarily a centerfielder in the minors (179 games), and he also played quite a bit of left field (117 games), but he only played 27 minor league games in right field before playing 61 major league games there in '10. Hopefully as he adjusts to the position, he'll be as great there as he is in centerfield in right field. Jay is a really good backup. Add Craig into the mix, and the Cardinals have nice depth behind Holliday.

Centerfield:

24 year old Cardinals centerfielder Colby Rasmus has been the subject of controversy regarding his relationship with Cardinals manager Tony La Russa. Is he a good enough player to be worth the controversy? Rasmus had a pretty good year in '10, hitting .276 with 28 doubles, 23 homers, 66 RBI, 85 runs, 12 stolen bases, and a .361 OBP in 144 games. Rasmus needed a .354 BAbip to hit .276 because he strikes out so darn much (148 K's, 27.7% of his plate appearances compared to the MLB average of 18.2%). Rasmus did have a 22% LD%, but he had an awful 56% IP%. Rasmus simply doesn't hit the ball on the ground. He had a crazy 47.8% fly ball percentage (according to fangraphs.com, but fangraphs and baseball-reference.com, which I've been using for stats otherwise in this post, differ in several stats, so maybe that percentage is somewhat off compared to baseball-reference's 22% LD% for Rasmus). Rasmus' crazy amount of fly balls paid off with an 11.7% HR/FB and a 42% X/H% (percentage of hits that went for extra bases) compared to the MLB average of 33%. Rasmus is the kind of player that could hit 25 homers a season for a long time, but the problem with him is that he'll never hit .300, especially when his BAbip returns to neutral (considering his 22% LD%, maybe that's around .320). Not to mention RBI's. Rasmus batted in the 5th hole for the Cardinals in half of his 144 games in '10, yet he drove in just 66 runs. Rasmus drove in 43 runs out of the 5th hole in 72 games, but just 23 runs in the 72 other games he played, despite playing 26 games in the 2-3-4 spots in the order (he drove in just 4 combined runs in those games). Of Rasmus' 23 homers, 10 of them were solo shots, including 8 to lead off innings.Intrestingly, not only did Rasmus hit 10 bases empty homers compared to 13 homers with runners on base, but also he hit .294 with the bases empty compared to .255 with runners on base and .254 with runners in scoring postion. Most players hit as many or more solo shots as homers with runners on base anyway, but you have to worry about the .255 average with men on base. They have to hope it's a fluke. If it was, you should expect 80 or more RBI's from Rasmus in 2010. It's a strange situation with Rasmus, but you have to think he'll start driving in more runs from here on out. Defensively, Rasmus was pretty bad, posting a below-average .981 Fld% in centerfield with awful range (2.13 RF/9 compared to league average of 2.59) and just 1 assist. Defense might be more of a worry for Rasmus than offense. But, if he can start driving in more runs, it would be easier to deal with his glove-work. He'll be backed up by Jay and Greene. Colby Rasmus is a pretty good player overall for the Cardinals.

Right field:

Lance Berkman, signed by the Cardinals this offseason to a 1 year, 8 million dollar contract, is lined up to do something he hasn't done since 2004: play the outfield full-time. Berkman, 35, hit .248 in '10 with 23 doubles, 14 homers, 58 RBI, and a .368 OBP in 122 games between the Astros and Yankees. Berkman had a .282 BAbip in '10, way down from his .317 career BAbip, but that was because of a 17% LD%. His 10.4 HR/FB also compared unfavorably to his 14.7 career HR/FB, and in fact, it was the lowest of his career. Berkman isn't the player he used to be, but the Cardinals hope he can at least be a decent offensive player. Defensively though, Berkman owns just a .970 Fld% with below-average range in 264 games, most of which coming when he was 28 and younger. What the heck are the Cardinals thinking? But, the problem from them is that Matt Holliday has never played right field as a pro (he did play third base in the minors, and he was completely awful posting just an .879 Fld%). Berkman is stuck playing right field, and I suspect we'll see a lot of Allen Craig and Jon Jay, Berkman's backups at the end of games. Berkman is just a decent player at this point of his career.

Starting rotation:

Entering 2011, the Cardinals had two aces compared to the Phillies' full slate of four. Now, they're down to 1. Chris Carpenter, who will turn 36 in late April, went 16-9 in '10 with a 3.22 ERA and 179 K's compared to 63 walks in 35 starts and 235 IP. He allowed 214 hits, 8.2 per 9, and 21 homers allowed, 0.8 per 9. It wasn't as good of a year for Carpenter as he had in '09, when he finished 2nd in the NL Cy Young voting after going 17-4 with a 2.24 ERA. What was the difference? Well, his BAbip went up from .274 to .282, but that's not a big difference at all. His LD% went up from 17% to 18%. The big differences from Carpenter was HR/FB, which doubled from 3.4% in '09 to 6.7% in '10, and LOB%, which decreased from 79.5% in '09 to 73.3% in '10. Carpenter was a little bit luckier in 2009 than in 2010, when things evened out for him. Still, a 3.22 ERA is pretty good. Carpenter was a decent hitting pitcher in '10, hitting .111 with a homer, 4 RBI, and 10 sac bunts. Carpenter might not be the true ace he used to be anymore, but he's still a very good pitcher for the Cardinals.

24 year old lefty Jaime Garcia is coming off an outstanding rookie season. Garcia finished third in the NL Rookie of the Year voting behind Buster Posey and Jason Heyward, going 13-8 with a 2.70 ERA and 132 K's compared to 64 walks in 28 starts and 163.1 IP. He allowed 151 hits, an 8.3 H/9, and 9 homers, a great ratio of 0.5 per 9. Is Garcia primed for an encore in 2011, or is he due for a sophomore slump? Well, after looking at his BAbip in 2010 (.293), you get the feeling that Garcia wasn't lucky in '10. He also allowed a 20% LD% and a 70% IP% that were right around the league average. Another big factor for Garcia was a 55.9% GB%. But, Garcia allowed just a 4.7% HR/FB, so he was certainly lucky in that regard. When everything evens out, it's unlikely that Garcia will post an ERA under 3.00 again in '10. But, if he can manage a low-3.00's ERA, that would be fine for the Cardinals. Garcia is no automatic out, considering he hit .185 in '10 with 2 RBI and 4 sac bunts. With Wainwright hurt, the Cardinals need some pitchers to step up. Jaime Garica needs to be one of those guys.

On July 31st of 2010, Jake Westbrook was a struggling pitcher for the Indians, having gone 6-7 in his first 21 starts of the season with a 4.65 ERA. But, that day he was traded to the Cardinals, where he went 4-4 with a 3.48 ERA in 12 starts the rest of the season. The Cardinals resigned the 33 year old sinker-baller this offseason, hoping he can continue his nice second half. Overall in 2010, Westbrook went 10-11 with a 4.22 ERA and 128 K's compared to 68 walks in 33 starts and 202.2 IP. He allowed 203 hits, almost exactly a hit per inning at 9.0 per 9, and 20 homers, 0.9 per 9. Westbrook allowed a .290 BAbip in '10, which might have actually been a bit unlucky considering Westbrook allowed just a 16% LD%. He did allow a 73% IP%, as expected from a sinker-baller. He had a 56.4% GB%. In terms of those stats, you would think that Westbrook was just unlucky in '10, but Westbrook allowed an 8.0% HR/FB that was right around the MLB average, yet he still allowed 20 homers. Westbrook wasn't unlucky in '10 to have a 4.22 ERA. He is what he is, just a pretty good pitcher, nothing better. Westbrook hit .111 with 1 RBI and 1 sac bunt in '10, showing that he's still an AL pitcher at heart. Jake Westbrook is a decent third starter for the Cardinals.

The four candidates for the last two spots in the Cardinals' rotation are Kyle Lohse, Kyle McClellan, Brandon Dickson, and Lance Lynn.

Kyle Lohse, 32, struggled through a forearm injury in '10, going 4-8 with a 6.55 ERA and 54 K's compared to 35 walks in 18 starts and 92 IP. He allowed an incredible 129 hits, a horrible 12.6 H/9, and 9 homers, a 0.9 HR/9. When you delve deeper into the stats, the first thing you notice is that Lohse allowed a crazy .369 BAbip. But, that had to be expected considering he allowed a 23% LD%. Lohse also allowed a 75% IP%. All those stats are bad enough, but in addition Lohse was actually helped out by a relatively low HR/FB (5.3%). Is there any hope for Lohse? Yes, for three reasons. First off, Lohse will be healthy in '10 and that will obviously help his performance. But also, there are two stats that seem to indicate that Lohse will rebound in 2011: FIP and LOB%. The past three seasons, Lohse has gone from 15-6 with a 3.78 ERA in 2008 to 6-10 with a 4.74 ERA to 4-8 with a 6.55 ERA in '10. Over that period of time, Lohse's LOB% (percentage of baserunners allowed that were stranded on base) fell from 73.6% to 67.1% to 59.6%. Of course, if you strand less runners, you have a worse ERA. LOB% is a lot of luck, so Lohse was just really unlucky in 2010. (For example, if a pitcher allows a leadoff single or a single with two outs, he still allowed a single, but the leadoff single is the start to a big inning while if the pitcher allows a 2-out single, he's one out away from getting out of the inning and stranding the runner.) The other stat to look at with Lohse was his FIP, the fielding independent equivalent of his ERA. When Lohse had a 3.78 ERA in '08, he had a 3.89 FIP. When his ERA jumped up to 4.74 in '09, he had a 4.55 FIP. But in '10, even though his ERA went all the way up to 6.55, Lohse actually had a 4.42 FIP. Lohse has been great so far in spring training, posting a 1.38 ERA, 9 K's, and no walks in 3 starts and 13 IP. The Cardinals hope everything evens out for Lohse in 2011, and he has a decent year for them.

After an outstanding year in the bullpen in '10, the Cardinals are considering making 26 year old right-hander Kyle McClellan into a starter. Is the move worth it and will will it work out? McClellan was pretty darn good in '10, going 1-4 with a 2.27 ERA, 60 K's (7.2 K/9), 23 walks (2.7 BB/9), 58 hits allowed (6.9 H/9), 9 homers allowed (1.1 HR/9), 19 holds, and 2 saves in 68 RA's and 75.1 IP. But, McClellan allowed just a .236 BAbip in 2010. Was he just really lucky? Actually no. McClellan allowed just a 15% LD%, a 68% IP%, and he managed a 50.7% GB%. McClellan was lucky to have a .236 BAbip in '10, but not by that much. However, McClellan was unlucky in terms of HR/FB, allowing a 9.1% HR/FB. When everything evens out, McClellan could still have an ERA under 2.50 in '11. But wait- that's what he would do as a reliever. McClellan could clearly be an effective middle reliever for the Cardinals in '10 if he doesn't pull on rotation spot, but how will he do if he does pull a C.J. Wilson and become a starter? First of all, does McClellan have any starting experience? Well, McClellan has appeared in 202 major league games, all in relief. In the minors though, 51 of McClellans' 103 appearances were starts. From 2002 through 2006, McClellan was primarily a starter, starting 50 games compared to 13 in relief between Low-A and Rookie ball. He managed just a 5.27 ERA, with just a 5.9 K/9, a 2.9 BB/9, a 10.1 h/9, and a 0.8 HR/9. He never even had a winning season, going just 8-25 overall. He also had a .238 BAbip, so that wasn't his problem. If that was the McClellan that the Cardinals got as a starter, that would be a disaster. But, McClellan is obviously a different pitcher now. We'll have to see what happens with McClellan. The good news for him is that he's matching Lohse start for start, posting a 1.29 ERA with 4 K's and 1 walk in 2 starts and 7 IP. Kyle McClellan is will definitely be on the Cardinals' big league roster in '10 in some capacity, either as a reliever or as a starter, and he the potential to succeed in either role.

Brandon Dickson is another 26 year old right-hander, but while Lohse was being a middle reliever for the Cardinals the past three seasons, Dickson was continuing his gradual progression through the minors, advancing from High-A in 2008 to Triple-A in 2010. Dickson is an organizational arm that unexpectedly never slowed down as he faced harder and harder competition. Dickson was signed by the Cardinals as an undrafted free agent out of Division II Tusculum College in 2006. The Cardinals sent the 21 year old Dickson to Rookie-level Johnson City in 2006, and he performed exactly the way you would think he would, posting a 6.35 ERA in 9 relief apperances. But since then, Dickson has been an effective pitcher, posting a 3.65 ERA and averaging 150.2 IP per season. That sounds like a good innings-eating 4th starter to me (how many minor pitchers in the past 50 years have thrown four 140 inning seasons in the minors?). What's pretty amazing is that Dickson managed an ERA under 4.00 while allowing a 9.7 H/9. Dickson also did that while striking out just 6.3 per 9, but he kept the walks and homers down to 2.9 per 9 and 0.6 per 9 respectively. In 2010 at Triple-A Memphis, Dickson had his best season in the minors, going 11-8 with a career-best 3.23 ERA, a career-high 137 K's (his 7.4 K/9 was his highest since his brief 2006), and 53 walks (2.9 BB/9) in a career-high 27 starts, 1 relief appearance, and a career-high 167 IP. He did allow 180 hits, 9.7 per 9, but just 11 homers, 0.6 per 9. Dickson was even awarded The Cardinal Nation/Scout.com Minor League Starting Pitcher of the Year Award for pitchers in the Cardinals organization. Why did Dickson all of a sudden have his best season in the minors at Triple-A? Well, the three stats to look at would be BAbip, LOB%, and FIP the first of two of which are based around luck. Dickson had a .331 BAbip in '10, quite a bit above his .318 career BAbip. His LOB% was 72.8%, a bit higher than his 70.3 career LOB%, but not enough of a difference to make his ERA in '10 .47 lower than his career ERA. But what about his FIP? FIP isn't luck, since it's independent of fielders. Dickson managed a 3.53 FIP in '10 compared to his 3.82 career FIP. The primary reason for Dickson's career-best FIP was his career-best 2.58 K/BB ratio. That's the real reason for Dickson's success. While he might have been mildly lucky in terms of LOB%, Dickson really improved because he improved his strikeout rate while keeping his walk rate low. If Dickson can continue that trend he could be an effective pitcher at the back end of the Cardinals rotation. However, that may not be quite yet- Dickson has a 7.20 ERA so far in spring training, alllowing 7 runs (5 ER) on 9 hits and 2 walks while striking out 3 in 6 IP. Dickson might not make the Cardinals out of spring training, but he's certain to make his big league debut sometime during the 2011 season. Brandon Dickson will be an interesting prospect for the Cardinals in the near future, but he probably won't win either of the two starting spots that the Cardinals have available right now.

Lance Lynn, a right-hander starter who will turn 24 in May, was a supplemental-first round draft pick by the Cardinals out of the University of Mississippi in 2008, quite different from Dickson, who went to a Division II school and was undrafted. In 2008, Lynn, then 21, debuted at Short Season-A Batavia, and dominated his competition, going 1-0 with a 0.96 ERA, 22 K's (10.6 K/9), and 4 walks (1.9 BB/9) in 4 starts, 2 RA's, and 18.2 IP. He allowed just 12 hits, 5.8 per 9, and no homers (obviously 0.0 per 9). He was so good that he even made 2 starts at Low-A Quad Cities, going 0-1 with a 2.25 ERA in 2 starts, striking out 2 and walking 7 in 8 IP. But, Lynn's best performances were yet to come. In 2009, Lynn started the season at High-A Palm Beach, but after posting a 2.30 ERA and 17 K's in 2 starts, 3 relief appearances, and 15.2 IP, the Cardinals promoted him straight to Double-A Springfield. With Springfield, Lynn continued his hot streak, going 11-4 with a 2.92 ERA, 98 K's (7.0 K/9), 51 walks (3.6 BB/9), 117 hits allowed (8.3 H/9), and just 5 homers allowed (0.4 HR/9) in 22 starts and 126.1 IP. Wait a second- you have to notice that Lynn's strikeout rate, walk rate, and hit rate were pedestrian at best. He wasn't really that great at all! Why did he do so well? He did have a .299 BAbip, right around the average, but he had a 73.3% LOB%. The clear indicator of that Lynn's ERA was an illusion though, was his 3.47 FIP. He was good, but certainly not great. Nevertheless, the Cardinals sent him up to Triple-A Memphis for a start, and he allowed 2 runs on 5 hits in 6.2 IP, striking out 9 and walking 3, to end his season. On the year, Lynn went 11-4 with a 2.85 ERA, 124 Ks (7.5 K/9), 57 walks (3.5 BB/9), 138 hits allowed (8.4 H/9), and 5 homers allowed (0.3 HR/9) in 25 starts, 3 relief appearances, and 148.2 IP. Lynn was so good that he was ranked the Cardinals' 3rd-best prospect entering 2010, and he was the Scout.com/The Cardinal Nation System Starting Pitcher of the Year for 2009 (again, among Cardinals prospects). Still, some of those Double-A numbers just had to worrying. Those worries came into fruition in 2010. Lynn spent all of 2010 at Memphis, and needless to say, he did not meet expectations. Lynn went 13-10 with a 4.77 ERA, 141 K's (7.7 K/9), 62 walks (3.4 BB/9), 164 hits allowed (9.0 H/9), and 21 homers allowed (a 1.2 HR/9 that was 4 times his '09 HR/9) in 29 starts and 164 IP. He was a decent innings eater, but he started allowing homers and a hit per inning. What happened? Well, while his BAbip stayed at .300, Lynn's LOB% went down to 67.5%, and most worrisome, his FIP ballooned to 4.43. Lynn just got unlucky with his LOB%, and his FIP going up was due to his luck running out in terms of homers allowed (I wish some website had HR/FB minor leaguers). Either way, Lynn will have a significant problem going forward if he can't get that homer rate down. Lynn has a 5.14 ERA in 3 spring training appearances spanning 7 IP, allowing 4 runs on 6 hits, striking out 5 and walking 4. Lance Lynn was a great prospect, but unless he fixes his homer problem, he may never spend significant time in the majors for the Cardinals. No chance Lynn appears in any major league games other than in September unless several more pitchers get hurt.

It's pretty clear that Lohse and McClellan should be the Cardinals' 4th and 5th starters in '10, although if the Cardinals feel that McClellan would be better suited in the bullpen, Dickson could theoretically sneak into the rotation.

Bullpen:

Jason Motte had an outstanding season as a middle reliever for the Cardinals in '10, going 4-2 with a 2.24 ERA, 54 K's (9.3 K/9), 18 walks (3.1 BB/9), 41 hits allowed (7.1 H/9), 5 homers allowed (0.9 HR/9), 12 holds, and 2 saves in 56 relief appearances (RA's) and 52.1 IP. Was he legitimately good, or was he one of the many middle relievers who have one great year because of a complete fluke and then collapse? Keep in mind that Motte had a 4.76 ERA in 69 major league relief appearances in '09. Motte was mildly lucky in '10 in terms of BAbip, allowing a .277 BAbip, but that BAbip wasn't too far off from what it should have been, considering Motte allowed a 16% LD% in '10. He allowed a good 63% IP%, and his HR/FB was right around the league average at 7.0%. From these stats, Motte wasn't really lucky at all! However, Motte had a crazy 88.5% LOB% compared to the league average of 72.0%. When Motte had a 73.5 LOB% in '09, he had the aforementioned 4.76 ERA. When everything evens out, Motte will be lucky to post an ERA under 3.00. (By the way, he had a 3.24 FIP in '10, so Motte posting an ERA right around there is certainly within the realm of possibility.) Jason Motte is a decent reliever for the Cardinals, but there's a very slim chance that his 2011 ERA is with half a run of his 2.25 ERA in '10.

37 year old left-hander Trever Miller had a halfway decent season as the Cardinals' lefty specialist in '10, going 0-1 with a 4.00 ERA, 22 K's (5.5 K/9), 16 walks (4.0 BB/9), 30 hits allowed (7.5 H/9), 2 homers allowed (0.5 HR/9), and 11 holds in 57 RA's and in typical left specialist fashion, just 36 IP. You sort of want to ask why Miller's ERA went up from 2.06 in '09 for the Cardinals to 4.00 in '10, but then again, all of Miller's season are such a limited sample size (he hasn't even pitched 55 innings in a season since 2002 in the minors), but Miller's BAbip did go up from .239 to .257 from '09 to '10, and his FIP went up from 3.37 to 4.08 because his K/9 went down from 9.5 to 5.5. The real reason though, was a decrease in LOB% from 89.2% to 68.6%. It would appear that Trever Miller probably won't will rebound in 2011, but it doesn't really matter because as long as his ERA is reasonable, he'll be a decent reliever for the Cardinals.

27 year old righty Mitchell Boggs had a decent in the Cardinals' bullpen in '10, going 2-3 with a 3.61 ERA, 52 K's (7.0 K/9), 27 walks (3.6 BB/9), 60 hits allowed (8.0 H/9), 5 homers allowed (0.7 HR/9), and 6 holds in 61 RA's and 67.1 IP. Boggs allowed a .285 BAbip despite a 15% LD%, a 52.8 GB%, and a 68% IP%. He had a 73.8% LOB%, so he wasn't lucky in that regard, and he also had a 6.2% HR/FB, so he wasn't too lucky there either (maybe add in 1 or 2 homers to his season total, which wouldn't have been an enormous deal). Boggs had a 3.81 FIP, primarily because he didn't have a 2 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio. If he can fix that, maybe he could be a bit better in 2011. Best case scenario, he posts a high-2.00's ERA for the Cardinals, but even if he did, it would be a fluke because he's just a decent reliever. Mitchell Boggs is a decent reliever for the Cardinals.

33 year old lefty Brian Tallet was awful for the Blue Jays in '10, going 26 with a 6.40 ERA,, 53 K's (6.2 K/9), 38 walks (4.4 BB/9), 84 hits allowed (9.8 H/9), 20 homers allowed (2.3 HR/9), and 1 hold in 29 RA's, 5 starts, and 77.1 IP. He put up those stats while allowing just a .267 BAbip (despite a 15% LD% and 67% IP%), but his real problem was a crazy 15.2% HR/FB. He also had just a 67.2% LOB%. When everything evens out, there's no way Tallet will be as bad as he was in '10 again in '11. While Tallet probably won't return to his '08 levels (2.88 ERA in 51 RA's), maybe he could return to his '07 levels. That year, he had a 3.47 ERA in 48 RA's. (Tallet spent 2009 mostly as a starter.) You never know with middle relievers, but Tallet should be a decent cog in the Cardinals' bullpen in 2011.

In the twilight of his career, 40 year old right-hander Miguel Batista has remade himself into a decent middle reliever. The one-time 16 game winner went 1-2 for the Nationals in '10 with a 3.70 ERA, 55 K's (6.0 K/9), 39 walks (4.2 BB/9), 71 hits allowed (7.7 H/9), 9 homers allowed (1.0 HR/9), 2 holds, and 2 saves in 57 RA's, 1 start, and 82.2 IP. But, Batista allowed just a .257 BAbip, even though he had a 17% LD% and a league-average 69% IP%. Batista did have a 54% GB%, but he also had a 77.2% LOB%. Batista also had an 8.2% HR/FB that was right around the league average. Because of his poor strikeout to walk ratios and homer rate, Batista had a bad 4.76 FIP. Also, he appeared in very few pressure situations, appearing in just 4 save situations, and posting a 0.66 aLI (average leverage index), his lowest since 1966. (Leverage is pressure, aLI is the average pressure a pitcher goes through during a game. 1.00 is average.) Batista got very lucky in '10, and there's almost no chance he posts an ERA under 4.00 in 2011. At best, Miguel Batista is a decent reliver for the Cardinals.

25 year old right-hander Fernando Salas had a decent year as a reliever for the Cardinals, going 0-0 with a 3.52 ERA, 29 K's (8.5 K/9),15 walks (4.4 BB/9), 28 hits allowed (8.2 H/9), and 4 homers allowed (1.2 HR/9), and 1 hold in 27 RA's and 30.2 IP. He managed a decent ERA, but you can't like his strikeout to walk ratio that was under 2 to 1, or his 1.2 HR/9. Because of all these factors, Salas had just a 4.35 FIP. At least he kept his hits allowed down with a 15% LD% and a 63% IP% (he had a .286 BAbip). But, at least in terms of homers allowed, Salas was somewhat unlucky, allowing a 9.5% HR/FB. Even so, when everything evens out in 2011, Salas will have a worse year. Maybe he could sneak his ERA under 4.00, but not much better than that. Salas is just another decent reliever for the Cardinals.

Closer:

38 year old right-handed reliever Ryan Franklin had a halfway decent year as the Cardinals' closer in '10, going 6-2 with a 3.46 ERA, 42 K's (5.8 K/9), 10 walks (1.4 BB/9), 57 hits allowed (7.9 H/9), 7 homers allowed (1.0 HR/9), and 27 saves (2 blown saves) in 59 RA's and 65 IP. That was a far cry from his great 2009 season, when he posted a 1.92 ERA and saves 30 games in 62 RA's. What happened? Interestingly, Franklin's BAbip actually went down from .263 to .250 from '09 to '10. Franklin's LD% went up down to 21% to 20%, but his IP% went up from 72% to 76%. His GB% went down from 45.6% to 44.7%. Franklin's most notable increase among 'common' stats from '09 to '10 was HR/9, from 0.3 to 1.0. That was because of an increase in HR/FB from 2.5% to 7.3%. But, Franklin's real problem was LOB%. His LOB% shot down from 85.7% to 75.2%. Add that in to his FIP in '10 (3.83, up from 3.31 in '09), and that's how Franklin managed a 3.46 ERA. Franklin didn't have that bad of a year, but considering he doesn't strike anybody out, he has to maintain a good strand rate to remain a good pitcher. But, considering he's only posted one season with an ERA under 2.00 (2009), and that was the only year he had an 85% LOB%, there's no reason to think Franklin will be able to post an ERA under 2.00 in '11 (or for that matter, an 85% LOB%). The Cardinals just have to hope that Franklin's homer rate goes down and that he can at least post an ERA under 3.00 in 2011. Unfortunately for them, Franklin's HR/FB was actually below neutral in 2010. Ryan Franklin is a halfway-decent closer for the Cardinals.

Overview:

The Cardinals' offense has Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday as a part of it, but other than those two, it's really pretty bad. The Cardinals have just a pretty good offense. After Yadier Molina, they have a bad defense as well. Their rotation without Wainwright is average at best, and they have a bad bullpen. That does not sound like a good team me. After the Cardinals' finish this year, Pujols won't have second thoughts about not giving the Cardinals a hometown discount.

2010 record: 86-76

Prediction: 79-83, 4th in NL Central

The Cardinals will make the playoffs if...Pujols and Holliday have monster years, Freese stays healthy, Carpenter stays healthy and hurls a Cy Young-worthy year, Jaime Garcia avoids any sort of sophomore slump, Kyle Lohse and Kyle McClellan have pretty good seasons as the Cardinals 4th and 5th starters, the bullpen doesn't completely collapse, and Ryan Franklin saves 40 games for the first time in his career.