The Cincinnati Reds were one of the surprises of the 2010 season, winning 91 games and taking the NL Central crown by 5 games over the Cardinals. Are the Reds going to defend their division title, or will 2010 prove to be a fluke?
Catcher:
Ramon Hernandez is way past his prime. But if Hernandez, who will turn 35 in May, can stay healthy and make one last push in his contract year with the Reds, he will be a catcher on some big league team next year. Is that motivation or what? Hernandez has to better than he did in 2010. Hernandez hit .297 with a .364 OBP and 18 doubles, but he hit just 7 homers and drove in just 48 runs in 97 games. He was bothered by lower back and knee soreness in the second half of the season. In his 352 plate appearances, Hernandez was apparently lucky, having a .332 BAbip (batting average on balls in play) compared to the 2010 average of .297, but he did have a 21% LD% (line drive percentage) compared to the 19% league average, and a 74% IP% compared to the 69% average. Hernandez was even lucky in terms of hitting homers, posting a 6.1% HR/FB (percentage of fly balls to the outfield that went for homers; MLB average 7.7%) compared to his 8.3% career average. When he was healthy, Hernandez played well, but he couldn't help the Reds when he was out due to injury. Hernandez was also as good as ever defensively, posting a .994 Fld% and a 34% CS% in 91 games at catcher. The 1-time AL passed ball leader also allowed just 2 passed balls. But again, those great stats didn't help anywhere near as much as it would have if Hernandez was healthy. If Hernandez can put up similar numbers both offensively and defensively in 2011 while staying healthy, I'm sure some team will sign him to be a starting catcher, maybe even to a multi-year contract. Will he? I would seriously doubt it, but again Hernandez is very motivated. Ramon Hernandez is playing for his baseball future in 2011, so you have to expect some great effort from him. But, he needs more than great effort for the Reds to be happy with his performance- he needs to stay healthy.
Hernandez will be backed up by Ryan Hanigan. Hanigan, 30, had a very good season as Hernandez's backup and injury replacement, hitting .300 with 11 doubles, 5 homers, 40 RBI, and a .405 OBP in 70 games. Hanigan did have a .313 BAbip, but he had a 22% LD% and a 74% IP%, so by no means was he lucky. He was good defensively as well, posting a .991 Fld% with a 34% CS% and just 2 passed balls (although those stats pale in comparison to his '09 stats, when he posted a .998 Fld%, tops among NL catchers, a 43% CS%, and 3 passed balls). But, you probably noticed that Hanigan played in just 70 games even though Hernandez played in just 97. He missed all of June with a thumb fracture. Hanigan, just like Hernandez and every other player, needs to stay healthy to be an effective player. If Ryan Hanigan can stay healthy, he'll be a very good backup for the Reds, and potentially a pretty good starter at catcher if Hernandez gets hurt again.
First base:
It's always nice to have the MVP of the league. Ever since reaching the big leagues as a 24 year old in 2008, there have been big expectations for Joey Votto. Votto finished 2nd in the NL Rookie of the Year in 2008 to Geovany Soto, hitting .297 with 32 doubles, 24 homers, 84 RBI, and a .368 OBP in 151 games. But in 2009, something was wrong with Votto. Votto by no means had a bad year, hitting .322 with 38 doubles, 25 homers, 84 RBI, 82 runs, and a .414 OBP in 131 games. Those are great stats, but Votto got very lucky in 2009, especially when compared to 2009. Votto had an abnormally-high .372 BAbip in 2009, compared to .328 in 2008. His LD% did go up to 25% in '09 after being at 24% in '08, but his IP% shot down from 68% to 62%, and his HR/FB went up from 10.6% to 11.8%. Those aren't encouraging numbers, but either way he was putting up great stats. But, Votto missed a lot of time in May and June of '09 with multiple problems: a respiratory disease, an ear infection, and then worst of all, a depression problem. Votto's future was in question. He clearly had the skills to be a superstar, but could he handle the mental aspect of the game? In 2010, he answered that question. Votto finally became the player that people thought he would become, hitting .324 with 36 doubles, 37 homers, 113 RBI, 106 runs, even 16 stolen bases (he had 11 combined in '08 and '09), and an NL-leading .424 in 150 games. He also led the NL in slugging percentage (.600), OPS (1.024), and OPS+ (on-base percentage plus slugging adjusted to ballpark; 174). It was an incredible season, and Votto won the NL MVP by a landslide over Albert Pujols, among others. Did Votto blossom into a superstar who will certainly experience continued success as long as he stays healthy, or was he just really lucky again in 2010? I don't want to say it, but Votto was awfully lucky in 2010. He had a .361 BAbip despite career-lows in LD% (23%) and IP% (60%), and he had by-far a career high in HR/FB, 16.3%. Entering 2010, he had a 10.9% HR/FB. He was extremely lucky. But where Votto wasn't lucky was in terms of walk rate. He walked in a career best 14.0% of his plate appearances, leading to his .424 OBP, but also decreasing his IP%. He was lucky in terms of homers, but even so, if he can maintain his walk rate and stay at his career 12.6% HR/FB, he could potentially hit 30 homers and post a .400 OBP for a long time. However, he's been lucky in terms of BAbip, so there's no reason to think he'll continue to hit .320, but he could still maintain maybe a .305 BA. Votto also had a nice defensive season in '10, posting a .996 Fld%. No matter how you slice it, Joey Votto is a great player for the Reds.
Votto will be backed up by Miguel Cairo. Cairo, who turns 37 in May, actually had a pretty good season as a backup in 2010, hitting .290 with 12 doubles, 4 homers, 28 RBI, and a .353 OBP in 91 games. He did have a .320 BA, but he had a 22% LD% and a 75% IP%. Cairo, who will play primarily 1st, 2nd, and 3rd base for the Rays in '10, but will also cameo at shortstop, left field, and right field, is above-average defensively at 2nd (.984 BA, 5.21 RF/9 [range factor per 9 innings]) and 1st (.992 BA, 9.59 RF/9) , but is below-average otherwise. He's still a good backup.
Second base:
After three 20-20 seasons in a row from '07 to '09, Brandon Phillips under-performed a bit in '10, hitting .275 with 33 doubles, 18 homers, just 59 RBI (he averaged 86 from '06 to '09), 100 runs, 16 stolen bases (career-high 12 CS), and a .332 OBP in 155 games. Phillips will turn 30 in June, and 2011 is the last guaranteed year on his contract (2012 is a team option). Will Phillips be able to rebound in 2011? Phillips was not unlucky in terms of BAbip in '10, posting a .293 BAbip that was actually his highest since '07. He had an 18% that's exactly his career average and a 77% IP% that was better than his 75% career average. But BA wasn't Phillips' problem. He hit .275 and he owns a .267 career BA. His problem was that his homers and stolen bases were down. For his homers, Phillips had a 7.4% HR/FB, his lowest for a full season since 2003, and quite a bit below his 8.6% career HR/FB. If he can post an 8.6% HR/FB in 2011, he should be able to hit 20 home runs. The lack of stolen bases wasn't Phillips being unlucky- it was him not receiving enough chances to steal more bases. Phillips was just 16 for 28 in stolen base attempts, his worst percentage for a full season since 2003. He was successful on 78% of his stolen base attempts from '06 to '09. He also averaged 33 stolen base attempts per season. Phillips only attempted 28 attempts in 2010, his fewest since '06. After he hit a cold streak, he didn't attempt enough stolen bases (or the Reds' coaches didn't let him attempt enough steals), and he never got a chance to turn his low success percentage around. After Phillips was 10 for 18 in the first half of the season, he attempted just 10 more stolen bases the rest of the season. Maybe if he attempted a few more, he could have at least managed 20 stolen bases. Look for Phillips to turn that bad stolen base percentage around and steal 20 bases in 2011. He's too talented of a player not to. Defensively, Phillips was a Gold Glover, and rightfully so, considering he posted a .996 Fld% with a very good 4.81 RF/9. He'll be backed up by Cairo. Brandon Phillips was a bit of a disappointment in 2010, but look for him to rebound and be a great player for the Reds again in 2011.
Third base:
Somehow, some way, Scott Rolen continues to be a very good major league player at he ages. Rolen who seems like he’s been around forever yet will turn 36 in April of 2011, was considered to be a huge injury risk after he played in just 56 games in 2005 because of shoulder surgery. But since then, while Rolen hasn’t been completely healthy each season, he has played in 112 or more games each of the five seasons since then. In 2010, Rolen hit .285 with 34 doubles, 20 homers, 83 RBI, and a .358 OBP in 133 games. His .497 slugging percentage and .854 OPS were his highest since 2006. He had an awfully good year. Defensively, Rolen, an 8-time Gold Glover, wasn’t the best defender at third base in the NL, but he was still up there, putting up another ridiculous year defensively, posting a .977 Fld% compared to the league average of .950 and a 4.87 RF/9 compared to the league average of 2.54. As long as he continues to stay healthy, Scott Rolen will continue to be a very good player for the Reds.
Rolen will be backed up by Cairo, Juan Francisco, and starting shortstop Paul Janish. Francisco, who may only be on the team while Fred Lewis is injured, hit .286 at Triple-A with '10 with 24 doubles, 18 homers, 59 RBI, and a .325 OBP in 77 games. Francisco, 23, certainly a good hitter, but if he's a good hitter, why don't they keep him at Triple-A for his first full season there rather than bring him up? Also, Francisco needs work defensively (he posted just a .927 Fld% in 62 games at third, .917 in 5 games in left field, and .967 in 3 games at first). I would have brought up Hermida while Lewis is injured, but I guess it should be a nice experience for Francisco. With Cairo being joined by Francisco, the Reds have good depth behind Rolen.
Shortstop:
Paul Janish has done everything for the Reds the past couple years, playing some shortstop, some third base, some second base, and even pitching in a couple games. But in 2011, Janish finally has the chance to start. Janish hit .260 in ’10 with 10 doubles, 5 homers, 25 RBI, and a .338 OBP in 82 games (229 plate appearances). Janish has a .226 career batting average after 210 major league games, so you would expect that he was unlucky in 2010 in .260. Of course though, since I’m bringing this up, he was. Janish had a 22% LD% in ’10 with a 73% IP%, yet he had a .283 BAbip. Janish also has a positive trend going for him in terms of hitting homers. Janish’s homer count quintupled from 1 to 5, but he wasn’t lucky to do so. His HR/FB began reverting to neutral, going from just 1.0% to 5.6%. Maybe with regular playing time, Janish could be a pretty good offensive player for the Reds. Defensively, Janish is an outstanding defensive shortstop. He owns a .985 career Fld% at the position compared to the league average of .973, and a 4.73 RF/9 compared to the league average of 4.36. In 2010, he wasn’t as ridiculous as he was in ’09 defensively (.991 Fld%, tops among NL shortstops, 4.89 RF/9), but he still had a great defensive year, posting a .981 Fld% and a 4.47 RF/9. He also has been perfect defensively in 13 games at third base and 7 at second base, although while he posted an extremely above-average 3.33 RF/9 at third, he posted a very below-average 3.71 RF/9 at second. There’s no question that Janish is a great defensive player. Paul Janish is a great defender and he also has the potential to be a pretty good offensive player, so he should be a good player for the Reds in 2011.
But if Janish fails, there’s always World Series MVP Edgar Renteria. Renteria, signed to a one-year, 2.1 million dollar contract this offseason, wasn’t very MVP-like during the regular season, hitting .276 with 11 doubles, 3 homers, 22 RBI, and a .332 OBP in just 72 games for the San Francisco Giants. Renteria struggled to stay on the field because of injuries, most notably a biceps strain, a hamstring strain, a groin strain, and elbow soreness. The first three of those injuries each put Renteria on the 15-day DL, while the elbow soreness kept him on the Day-to-Day DL for 13 days. He missed a total of 78 days due to injury over the course of the season. And until his dominant World Series performance (.412 BA, 2 homers, 6 RBI, 6 runs), Renteria wasn’t so great when he was on the field. He needed a .323 BAbip to hit .276, and he was very lucky to have such a high BAbip, considering he posted just a 16% LD%, by far the lowest of his career (he had never previously been under 20%), and his 74% IP% was still above-average, but it was tied for his career-low. Maybe it was a small sample size (267 plate appearances), but even so, it’s unlikely Renteria ever returns to his career averages of a .287 BA, 28 doubles, 9 homers, 59 RBI, and a .344 OBP per season, especially since he’ll turn 35 in August. Defensively, Renteria actually posted an above-average .983 Fld%, but it came with Jeter-esque range as he posted just a 3.73 RF/9. It’s surprising that the Reds gave Renteria 2.1 million dollars. Nevertheless, Renteria should be a good backup for the Reds, who have the luxury of having a decent player with great experience to back up Janish.
Left field:
Going into spring training, it seemed likely that the Reds would have an old-fashioned platoon in left field, with Jonny Gomes splitting time with either Fred Lewis or Jeremy Hermida. Gomes, now 30 years old, has always been a player with some pop, considering he had turned in three 20-homer seasons entering 2010, but in 2010, he finally became more of a complete player. Despite hitting 20 homers 3 times, Gomes’ career-high in RBI’s was just 59. He certainly changed that in 2010. Gomes hit .266 with 24 doubles, 18 homers, 86 RBI, 77 runs, and a .327 OBP in 148 games (571 plate appearances). Gomes did have a .311 BAbip compared to his career BAbip of .297, but his career BAbip is weighed down by a .244 BAbip season in 2006 and a .198 BAbip in 2008. He posted a .352 BAbip in 2005 and a .325 BAbip in 2007, so he certainly has been a lot luckier than he was in 2010. But in reality, Gomes wasn’t really lucky at all in 2010. He tied his career-high with a 23% LD% and easily set a career-high with a 66% IP% (his career IP% is just 58%). And, although Gomes hit just 18 homers in 2010, he might be bound to hit more if he receives regular at-bats in 2011. He had just a 7.9% HR/FB compared to his 12.0% HR/FB. Gomes is a good offensive player. Defensively, Gomes isn’t so great, considering he posted a .981 Fld% compared to the league average of .987 Fld% for left fielders with a 1.76 RF/9 compared to the league average of 1.82. Still, he’s a pretty good player overall. But, he did hit .285 against lefties in ’10 compared to .257 against righties, and for his career he’s a .276 hitter against lefties compared to .233 against righties, so he could be part of a platoon and succeed. But could Lewis or Hermida step up?
Lewis, another 30 year old who the Reds inked this offseason to a one-year, $900,000 contract, had a pretty good season for the Toronto Blue Jays in ’10, hitting.262 with 31 doubles, 8 homers, 36 RBI, 5 triples, 17 stolen bases (6 CS), and a .332 OBP in 110 games. But, you have to be worried about Lewis because he had a .325 BAbip in ’10 despite a 19% LD%, a 67% IP% and an almost unbelievable 17% IF/FB (percentage of fly balls that stayed on infield ground [i.e. popups]). But, maybe Lewis would be bound to have a much worse year if he was a full-time starter again, but maybe he could succeed as a platoon player. Lewis, a lefty batter, hit .266 versus righties in ’10 compared to .247 versus lefties, but he has a much wider split for his career, .280 versus righties compared to .244 versus lefties. Maybe playing against pretty much only righties could help him. Defensively in left field though, Lewis is pretty awful, considering he posted just a .978 Fld% with a 1.61 RF/9. In spring training, Lewis hit just .205 with 1 homer, 11 RBI, 3 stolen bases (3 CS), and just a .294 OBP.
Hermida is a bit younger than Gomes or Lewis at age 27, but he doesn’t have as good of a pedigree. Hermida was a 1st round pick by the Marlins in 2002, but was a big disappointment since getting to the majors. His best year was in 2007, when he hit .296 with 18 homers and 63 RBI, but he owns just a .259 career BA. In 2010, Hermida hit just .216 with 12 doubles, 6 homers, 29 RBI, and a .268 OBP in 73 games between the Red Sox and Athletics. He missed nearly all of June and July after colliding with Adrian Beltre. In reality, Hermida wasn’t as bad as he seemed when he was on the field in '10. Hermida had a .300 BAbip, slightly above the league average, but that was despite an incredible 27% LD%. With average luck, Hermida should have had at least a .320 BAbip. He also had a decent 67% IP% and an 8% IF/FB, so those weren’t his problems. He was just really unlucky that many of the line drives he hit were caught. Defensively in left field, Hermida is pretty awful, considering he owns just a .976 Fld% at the position, including .956 in 47 games there in ’10. Hermida, another lefty batter, has hit .267 versus righties compared to .232 against lefties, so he could be a pretty good platoon player. Hermida had an awesome spring, hitting .342 with 3 homers, 6 RBI, and a .458 OBP.
From these stats, it appears that Gomes should platoon with Hermida, although I'm sure that Gomes will get some starts against righties. But, Lewis could still make the team as a backup outfielder. His competition would be Chris Heisey. Heisey, 26, had a decent rookie year as a backup for the Reds in '10, hitting .254 with 10 doubles, 8 homers, 21 RBI, and a .324 OBP in 97 games. Heisey also put up those numbers while posting a .312 BAbip, but he was actually pretty lucky to put up such a BAbip, considering he had a 19% LD%. He also had just a 61% IP%, which isn't a good combination with his average line drive rate. For his 8 homers, Heisey was extremely lucky, posting a 10.7% HR/FB. (Keep in mind that Heisey hit double-digit homers only twice in the minors.) But, I could be wrong has hit 5 homers and driven in 13 runs in spring training (he's hitting .354 with a .404 OBP). Still, he might be bound for a bit of a worse season offensively in 2011. Defensively though, Heisey is amazing in both centerfield and left fielder, posting a perfect Fld% at both positions, and showing above-average range. He did post just a .957 Fld% (2 errors) in right field, although he showed above-average range there as well. Heisey is good backup. He might have been sent down to the minors at least to begin the year, but you have to think that he's a better backup than Lewis. The Reds would likely try to trade Lewis, and somebody will be a taker, and Heisey should have his backup spot back. Overall, the Reds would have a pretty good situation in left field, with Jonny Gomes and probably Jeremy Hermida playing only to their strengths and good depth behind them in either Fred Lewis or Chris Heisey.
But that's just what I would do. The Reds made a decision Sunday, sending down Hermida to minor league camp, at least to begin the year. Gomes will start in left field, with Lewis and Heisey serving as backups. Lewis is currently out with an oblique injury that will allow Juan Francisco to at least temporarily make the team. The Reds still have a pretty good situation in left field.
Centerfield:
26 year old Drew Stubbs, a first round pick by the Reds in 2006, spent his first full season in the majors in '10, and he was about as good as anybody could have expected, hitting just .255, but with 19 doubles, 22 homers, 77 RBI, 6 triples, 91 runs, 30 stolen bases (6 CS), and a .329 OBP in 150 games for the Reds. Is Stubbs going to be as good if not better in 2011? Stubbs had a .330 BAbip. It's bad enough that he needed a .330 BAbip to hit .255, but he also put up that number while posting just a 16% LD% and just a 57% IP%. Also, Stubbs had a very high 12.9% HR/FB. Was Stubbs just really lucky in 2011? No. Both of those questions on Stubbs have reasonable answers. Stubbs had just a 16% LD%, but he ranked among the league leaders with 27 infield hits. When he hit ground balls, he was able to beat more out for singles then the average major league player, and accordingly had a higher BAbip. In terms of the high HR/FB, first of all, Stubbs had a 12.3% HR/FB in 42 games in '09. Secondly, there is no available stat for fly balls hit by a player in the minor leagues, but other stats we can use are X/H% (percentage of hits for extra bases) and XBH% (percentage of hits for extra bases among plate appearances). Those stats also take into count that Stubbs has become more of a power hitter as he has advanced through pro ball. In 2010, Stubbs had a 36% X/H% (compared to the league average of 34%) and an 8.1% XBH% (compared to the league average of 7.7%). In 2009, Stubbs had just a 27% X/H% and a 6.4% XBH%, and he posted just a 29% X/H% and a 7.1% XBH%. So wouldn't those stats appear to show that Stubbs was very lucky in 2010? No. Those stats show that Stubbs was very unlucky in 2009. But for his minor league career, he had a 32% X/H% and a 7.5% XBH%! But those numbers were weighed down by his numbers in '10 and his numbers in '06 (30% X/H%, 6.3% XBH%). He put up numbers that were much closer to his 2010 numbers in '07 and '08. In '07, he had a 34% X/H% and an 8.0% XBH%, while in '08 he had a 35% X/H% and an 8.4% XBH%. In 2010, he put in all together and was able to replicate those numbers at the major league level. Stubbs could have an encore of his 2010 numbers in 2011, and even better if he can improve his walk rate. Maybe around 20-30 is the best he can do in terms of homers and stolen bases, but he could certainly improve his BA and OBP. Defensively, Stubbs posted a below-average .987 Fld%, but he posted an incredible 2.83 RF/9 compared to the league average of 2.17. He also had 7 outfield assists. Stubbs will be backed up by Lewis and Heisey. Drew Stubbs is a very good player for the Reds.
Right field:
Jay Bruce, who will turn 24 on April 3rd, is already entering his 4th season in the big leagues. 2010 was his finest effort. Bruce hit .281 with 23 doubles, 25 homers, 70 RBI, 5 triples, 80 runs, 5 stolen bases, and a .353 OBP in 148 games. Every single stat I mentioned was a career-high for Bruce. Is Bruce finally becoming the great player the Reds thought he would be when they drafted him with the 12th overall pick in 2005, or is he about to become a huge bust considering the huge extension (6 years, 51 million dollars) that the Reds just gave him? In 2010, Bruce had a .334 BAbip. That was because of a 21% LD%, although he did have a 62% IP%. Those seem fine. But, you have to realize that after posting a 22% LD% in 2008, he posted just a 14% LD% in 2009. How can the Reds be so sure that Bruce won't experience a similar decline in 2011? No, because LD% isn't the only factor. In 2008, he had that 22% LD%, and he also had a 44% GB% (ground ball percentage), and a 34% FB% (fly ball percentage). In 2009, his FB% shot up to 48%, but his LD% of course shot down to 14%. His GB% also decreased to 38%. After being more of a balanced hitter in 2008, Votto tried to become a pure power hitter in 2009, and although he hit 22 homers, his BA fell to just .223. So in 2010, Bruce reverted to being the hitter he was in 2008, becoming more balanced between ground balls, fly balls, and line drives, posting percentages of 36%, 43%, and 21% respectively. (Due to somewhat of a discrepancy between the stats on baseball-reference.com and fangraphs.com, all of the preceding percentages might be up to 1% off, but they're all that same amount off, so they can still be compared.) As long as Votto remains a balanced hitter, he should be OK. Defensively, Bruce is outstanding. He posted a .992 Fld% compared to the league average of .986, and he did show while showing a 2.44 RF/9 that was third-best among NL right fielders. He also had 7 outfield assists. Jay Bruce isn't even 24 yet and he's already a great player. As he progresses as a big league player, he should be worth those 51 million dollars the Reds are giving him, if not more.
Starting rotation:
It took Bronson Arroyo 11 seasons in the majors to finally post ERA's under 4.00 two seasons in a row and to win 17 games. Now that he's accomplished those 'feats', is he finally, at age 34, going to be a pretty good pitcher, he can give the Reds some quality innings season after season? The Reds thought so, giving him a 3-year, 35 million dollar extension. Will he be that guy? In '10, Arroyo went 17-10 with a 3.88 ERA and 121 K's compared to 59 walks in 33 starts and 215.2 IP. He allowed 188 hits, a good 7.8 H/9, and 29 homers, a bad 1.2 HR/9. It certainly wasn't a great season, but Arroyo certainly was a dependable season for the Reds considering he threw 200 innings with an ERA under 4.00. It was his 6th straight 200 inning season. Is there any reason that Arroyo won't be as good in 2011? Well, Arroyo actually had just a .241 BAbip, the lowest of his career for a full season. His career BAbip is .286. Is Arroyo bound for a bad season in 2011 as his BAbip returns to neutral? But, maybe his BAbip will never return .286. He had a good 18% LD% against him in 2011, and while he allowed quite a few balls in play (75% IP%), many of them were infield popups (15% IF/FB). He also had a pretty good 43.4% GB% against him. Arroyo was also apparently unlucky in terms of HR/FB (8.8%), but that was because he pitches in Great American Ballpark. He's had an 8.7% HR/FB on the Reds compared to 7.8% for his career. He's a pretty pitcher, and he should be able to be a pretty pitcher for at least the next couple of years. Arroyo was a halfway-decent hitting pitcher in '10, posting a .147 BA with a homer. 8 RBI, and 6 sac bunts. But Arroyo's 'hidden value' to the Reds might be his fielding. He won a Gold Glove in '10, posting a perfect 1.000 Fld%. Arroyo isn't a true ace for the Reds, but he's certainly a good innings-eater.
Edinson Volquez was an awesome pitcher for the Reds in 2008, going 17-6 with a 3.21 ERA and 206 K's, but he underwent Tommy John surgery in June of '09. After coming back in July of '10, Volquez made 12 starts, returning in July, two weeks after his 27th birthday, and he wasn't the same pitcher, posting a 4.31 ERA. Will he return to glory in 2011, or will he be just another great pitcher who got injured and was never the same? In an attempt to determine that, let's see if Volquez's 2008 season was a fluke and then let's compare that season to his numbers in 2010 and 2009 (when he posted a 4.35 ERA in 9 starts before getting hurt). Just to list his full '08 stats, he went 17-6 with a 3.21 ERA, 206 K's, 93 walks, 167 hits allowed (7.7 H/9), and 14 homers allowed (0.6 HR/9) in 32 starts, a relief appearance, and 196 IP. He allowed a .303 BAbip, and that was despite an 18% LD% and a 46.3% GB% against him. He also had a great 59% IP% against him, and a 14% IF/FB. There doesn't appear to be any flukes there. However, he did allow a 6.0 HR/FB, so maybe he was a bit lucky in that regard. Still, from those stats, you would think that as long as Volquez didn't get hurt (but of course he did), he would be a fine pitcher for the Reds in the coming years. But let's compare those stats to Volquez's starts in '09 and '10. Volquez went 8-5 from '09 to '10 with a 4.33 ERA, 114 K's, 67 walks, 93 hits allowed (7.5 H/9), and 14 homers allowed (1.0 HR/9) in 21 starts and 112.1 I P. He actually was much luckier than he was in '08, posting a .282 BAbip. That was despite a 19% LD%, but a 50% GB%. He also allowed a 58% IP%. So that leaves homers allowed. The reason why Volquez was much worse from '09 to '10 than he was in '08 was because he had a 9.1% HR/FB compared to 6.0% in '08. So what can we expect going forward? I think that it's pretty unlikely that Volquez will ever be as good as he was in 2008 again, but he's too talented of a pitcher to not manage an ERA in the 3.00's range. I would predict an ERA around 3.70 because of a BAbip around .290, a HR/FB around 8.0%, and close to a 48% GB%. Volquez actually hit a career-high .118 in '10, but he had no RBI's and just 3 sac bunts. He did not make any errors one year after posting just an .846 Fld%. Edinson Volquez may not be able to be the great pitcher people thought he would become after an outstanding '08, but he's still a pretty good pitcher for the Reds.
Reds starters Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey will miss the start of the season will shoulder injuries (inflammation and impingement respectively).
Cueto, a 25 year old right-hander, had a good season in 2010, going 12-7 with a 3.64 ERA and 138 K's compared to 56 walks in 31 starts and 185.2 IP. Cueto allowed 181 hits, an 8.8 H/9, and 19 homers, a 0.9 HR/9. When he gets healthy, will he be just as good? Well, it's a good sign that he pitched well despite a .295 BAbip. At least you would think so. But really, that was not the case- Cueto pitched well because of a .295 BAbip. Cueto actually allowed a bad 20% LD% and a 41.7% GB% that was decent at best. He also allowed a 70% IP%. He certainly should have had a BAbip over .300. But Cueto wasn't just lucky in terms of hits allowed. He allowed a 6.6% HR/FB, which you compare to the 9.8% HR/FB he allowed his first 2 major league seasons. Cueto was really lucky in 2010. So what can we expect from Cueto in 2011? Well, we can certainly expect a drop off. With a BAbip over .300, Cueto would certainly allow over a hit per inning, and with a HR/FB of at least 8, he would allow a HR/9 of at least 1.1. Those aren't enormous differences, so I would give him the benefit of the doubt and have him with an ERA just under 4.00. The projection system Marcel has him posting a 3.97 ERA, and I think that's about right. Even so, Cueto would be a pretty good pitcher for the Reds, but he it would certainly be a step back. You have to hope that Cueto will outperform his statistical trends and end up as the very pitcher he has the potential to be, but it doesn't seem that that's going to happen in 2011. Cueto hit just .111 in '10 with RBI, although he did have 8 sac bunts. Defensively, Cueto posted a .952 Fld% that was actually the highest of his career. He's a pretty bad fielding pitcher. Expect a step back from Johnny Cueto in 2011.
Bailey's shoulder injury might be a bit more worrisome. He missed from late-May until mid-August in 2010 with shoulder inflammation. When he was healthy, he was unimpressive, going 4-3 with a 4.46 ERA, 100 K's, and 40 walks in 19 starts and 109 IP. He allowed 109 hits, exactly a hit per inning, and 11 homers, a 0.9 HR/9.But, those full season stats don't tell the full story. Before his first shoulder injury, Bailey, who will turn 25 in May, was pretty awful, posting a 5.51 ERA in 9 starts, but if you take out a May 12th complete-game shutout of the Pittsburgh Pirates, he had a 6.70 ERA. But when he came back, he was certainly much better, posting a 3.55 ERA in his final 10 starts. The craziest part about Bailey's 2010 season was that he actually had a .309 BAbip against him before he got hurt compared to .325 after. Bailey's results in his final 10 starts are very encouraging, but you it's hard not to worry about his second shoulder injury in as many years. But even if he can remain healthy, can he be a consistent pitcher? Before the injury, Bailey had a 7.3 K/9, a 3.7 BB/9, and a 19% LD%, while after the injury he had a 9.1 K/9, a 2.9 BB/9, and a 21% LD%. There was a trade off. If Bailey puts in all together, striking out a batter per inning, walking one only every three, and allowing under a fifth of the balls in play against him to be line drives, he'll be a great pitcher. The Reds obviously hope he can do that when he comes back in 2011. Bailey is also a decent hitter, considering he hit .212 in '10 with 2 RBI and 4 sac bunts. He did post just a .955 Fld%. If Homer Bailey can stay healthy and pitch to the best of his ability, he'll be a great pitcher for the Reds in 2011.
For one magical night, Travis Wood was unhittable. On July 11th against the Phillies, in just his third major league start, Wood went 8 perfect innings, but gave up a double to Carlos Ruiz to lead off the 9th. Wood went 9 innings, allowing that 1 hit and striking out 8. The Phillies won 1-0 in 11 innings. Wood wasn't quite as good over the course of the season, but he showed that could be a good pitcher. The 25 year old southpaw went 5-4 with a 3.51 ERA, 86 K's, and just 26 walks in 17 starts and 102.2 IP. He allowed just 85 hits, a great 7.5 H/9, and 9 homers, a 0.8 HR/9. Can Wood be that good over the course of a full season in 2011? You would obviously hope so, but there are some clear red flags. First of all, Wood allowed just a .261 BAbip in 2010. He did that while allowing a 20% LD% and an awful 30.5% GB%. He's an extreme fly ball pitcher who allows too many line drives. That doesn't sound like a good combination. He also allowed a league average 69% IP%, so it's not like those percentages mean less because he didn't allow very many balls in play. In addition, Wood allowed just a 5.1% HR/FB in '10, so he was lucky in that regard as well. When everything evens out, it would seem that Wood will have a significantly worse season in 2011. But, Wood was actually unlucky in another regard: LOB%, also known as strand rate, which is the percentage of base runners allowed by a pitcher that are stranded on base. Wood had just a 68.4% LOB% in 2010, compared to the league average of around 72%. Wood had a 72.0% LOB% in the minors, including 73.0% at Triple-A in '10, 79.0% at Triple-A in '09, and 82.8% at Double-A in '08. If Wood can start putting up strand rates more like that at the big league level, he could probably maintain a mid-3.00's ERA. Wood isn't a great pitcher, but he certainly could be a good 3rd starter for the Reds for a while. Wood isn't an awful hitter, considering he hit .189 with a homer and 3 RBI while laying down 5 sac bunts. However, he's an awful fielder, considering he posted just a .769 Fld% in '10, and just .913 in the minors. Unless he worked very hard in PFP (pitchers' fielding practice), he'll still be a bad fielder, but I'm sure he'll be able to get his Fld% into the .900's in '11 and it won't be too much of a problem. Travis Wood should be a pretty good pitcher for the Reds in his first full season.
Mike Leake was the 8th overall pick in the 2009 draft, but the first to make the majors, becoming the first starting pitcher since Jim Abbott to skip the minor leagues entirely and beginning the 2010 season in the Reds' rotation. Things began very well for the 23 year old rookie right-hander. On June 5th, Leake was 5-0 with a 2.22 ERA in his first 11 starts and seemed like the front-runner for Rookie of the Year. But in his next 11 starts, Leake struggled mightily posting just a 5.60 ERA. After 2 awful relief appearances (8 ER allowed in 2.2 IP), Leake was shut down for the rest of the season because it was his first pro season and they didn't want to start him off with too much of a workload. On the year, Leake went 8-4 with a 4.23 ERA (3.78 as a starter), 91 K's, and 49 walks in 22 starts, 2 relief appearances, and 138.1 IP. He allowed 158 hits, way over a hit per inning at 10.3 per 9, and 19 homers, an also bad 1.2 HR/9. But, there is certainly hope for Leake to still be a great pitcher, not only because he's just 23 years old, but also because of several stats. Leake allowed a .320 BAbip in '10 (that was made into more of a problem because of a 72% IP% against him) despite allowing a good 19% LD% and a great 50.2% GB% against him. But also, Leake allowed a 9.3 HR/FB. When everything evens out, Leake could become that great player that he has the potential to be. But, there's a big problem for Leake right now- he's the 6th starter that I've listed here. Once Cueto and Bailey come back, Leake will either have to moved to the bullpen or sent down to the minor leagues for the first time in his career. That is, unless he shows flashes of being the pitcher he was at the beginning of 2010. Because of the injuries, Leake has an opportunity. He better take advantage. Leake, who hit .299 in 3 seasons as a part-time outfielder at Arizona State, actually was a good hitter in '10, hitting .333 with 3 RBI, 6 sac bunts, and even a .407 OBP. He did post just a .930 Fld%. Mike Leake has a very good chance of a rebound in 2011, but in order for that to happen, he needs to reestablish himself as a very good starter at the beginning of 2011.
Sam LeCure also has an opportunity because of the injuries. LeCure who will turn 27 in May, went 8-3 at Triple-A Louisville in '10 with a 3.67 ERA, 86 K's and just 26 walks in 15 starts and 98 IP. He allowed 98 hits, a hit per inning, and 8 homers, a 0.7 HR/9. He pitched pretty well despite allowing a .323 BAbip. He also made his major league debut, going 2-5 with a 4.50 ERA, 37 K's, and 25 walks in 6 starts, 9 relief appearances, and 48 IP. He allowed 50 hits, a 9.4 H/9, and 6 homers, a 1.1 HR/9. He wasn't great, but he was certainly decent. It was a very small sample size, so we'll have to see how he does in 2011. It would be awfully tough for him to remain in the rotation after Cueto and Bailey come back, but there's a possibility that he could remain on the roster as part of the bullpen. LeCure hit just .091 in '10 with 1 sac bunt, while he posted an 1.000 Fld%. LeCure is a decent pitcher for the Reds, and he could be a valuable player for the Reds in 2011 between being a starter and being a reliever.
Bullpen:
Aroldis Chapman excited the baseball world from the moment he came up, pitching 103 MPH fastballs at will and finishing with a 2-2 record, a 2.03 ERA, 19 K's, just 5 walks, and 4 holds in 15 relief appearances and 13.1 IP. He allowed just 9 hits, 6.1 per 9, and not a single homer. The 23 old lefty also did so while pitching in high-pressure situation, ending up with a 1.6 aLI (average leverage index- average amount of pressure is on per game in a season, 1.0 is average pressure). Chapman actually allowed a .333 BAbip, but that was completely negated by a 53% IP%. Chapman allowed very little hard contact, as opposing batters had just a 14% LD% against him and an unbelievable 73.1% GB%. Also of course, he had a 0.0 HR/FB against him, just a 2% XBH%, and just an 11% X/H%. He was just plain awesome. For a pitcher like Chapman, the league is either going to figure him out or not, and if they don't, he'll be dominant for a while unless he gets hurt. Chapman is nearly unhittable. Maybe he won't be quite as great in 2011, but people would be shocked if his ERA is above 2.50. It's almost a waste having Chapman in the bullpen, but not as the closer, rather than being a starter. Aroldis Chapman is just an amazing relief pitcher for the Reds.
Nick Masset, a 29 year old right-hander reliever, didn't quite turn in his best effort in 2010, but he was as durable as anyone in the majors, appearing in 82 relief appearances, going 4-4 with a 3.40 ERA, 85 K's, 33 walks, 20 holds, and 2 saves in 76.2 IP. It certainly wasn't as good of a season for Masset as 2009, when he posted a 2.37 ERA and 20 holds in 74 relief appearances. But, he had a higher aLI in 2010 than in '09, 1.3 compared to 1.1. Maybe the additional pressure was one of the reasons for Masset's worse performance in 2010. He allowed a .295 BAbip compared to .251. Your first inclination would be to say that that was just his BAbip returning to neutral, but it was more than that. Masset allowed a 65% IP% in '09, with a great 13% LD%, and a great 54.1% GB%, but in 2010, while he allowed a 60% IP%, he allowed a bad 21% LD%, and a 47.2% GB%. His strand rate also went down from 80.5% to 76.0%. Masset essentially traded more strikeouts (10.0 K/9 compared to 8.3) for more hard-hit balls. But, at least he still had a good year. If Masset can put everything together, that would be the best case scenario, but the Reds would hope that he can allow fewer line drives, even if it costs him a few strikeouts. Whichever happens, Masset will be a durable pitcher for the Reds.
Bill Bray was a decent reliever for the Reds in 2010 after coming back from Tommy John surgery, going 0-2 with a 4.13 ERA, 30 K's, just 10 walks, and 2 holds in 35 relief appearances and 28.1 IP. The 27 year old left-hander allowed 21 hits, just 6.7 per 9, but 4 homers, a bad 1.3 HR/9. Still, considering he was coming back from Tommy John, that was pretty impressive. Bray did allow just a .236 BAbip, but there was a very simple reason for that: his LD%. He allowed just a 6% LD%. In a baseball world where 12% is amazing, that's ridiculous. But how did he allow a 1.3 HR/9? He was unlucky in terms of HR/FB, 10.3%. If I left you with just those stats, I might have been able to lead you to believe that Bray is going to be the second-best lefty reliever in baseball behind Chapman in 2011. But, I didn't. In Bray's comeback from surgery, the Reds used him in so few pressure situation, and he had just a .72 aLI. In Bray's only season with above-average leverage, 2006, he has a 4.08 ERA for the Nationals. He did have a 2.87 ERA for the Res with a .92 aLI in 2008. Still, if Bray is going to be the Reds' lefty specialist (with Chapman being a primary setup man), he's going to have to be better under pressure. Lefty Bill Bray is somewhat of a question mark for the Reds.
26 year old Logan Ondrusek had a decent year for the Reds in 2011, going 5-0 with a 3.68 ERA, 39 K's, 20 walks, and 6 holds in 60 relief appearances and 58.2 IP. He allowed 49 hits, a good 7.5 H/9, but 7 homers, a 1.1 HR/9. But, Ondrusek allowed just a .243 BAbip. Without looking at any other stats, you would obviously think that he was very lucky in '10, but even so, he put up a 3.68 ERA. But, although Ondrusek allowed a 72% IP%, he allowed just a 15% LD%, a great 18% IF/FB and a 48.0 GB%. He was even lucky in terms of homers allowed, allowing a 9.3% HR/FB. But, Ondrusek pitched under situations with such little pressure, finishing the season with a .87 aLI. If Ondrusek is just a decent pitcher when he's in situations with little pressure, imagine how he'll do if the Reds put him into more pressure situations? Unless Ondrusek steps up when he's put into a bigger role in 2011, he seems bound to be that last reliever in the bullpen who's only used when the Reds are way behind or way ahead. Logan Ondrusek is a decent reliever at best for the Reds.
Because of all the injuries, Matt Maloney and Jared Burton managed to make the Reds' bullpen out of spring training.
Maloney, 27, went 10-7 at Louisville in '10 with a 3.34 ERA, 104 K's, and just 28 walks in 23 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 134.2 IP. But, he allowed 132 hits, an 8.8 H/9, although he did allow just 9 homers for a 0.6 HR/9. He allowed a .300 BAbip, but he did have just a 66.7% strand rate. Maloney also appeared in 7 major league games, 2 of which were starts, going 2-2 with a 3.05 ERA. He actually had a .92 aLI, so those numbers are pretty impressive. Maloney doesn't have too much upside anyway, so the Reds decided to bring him up to the big league bullpen, at least for the time being. If his 2010 numbers are any indication, he'll be a decent reliever for the Reds.
Burton, who will turn 30 in June, had a very good year as a reliever in Louisville in '10, going 3-2 with a 2.61 ERA, 34 K's, 16 walks, and 4 saves in 33 relief appearances and 38 IP. He allowed 29 hits, a 6.9 H/9, but 4 homers, a 0.9 HR/9. He also allowed just a .240 BAbip and had a 79.2 LOB%, so those are signs for concern. He missed quite a bit of time with a thyroid problem and an oblique strain. Burton was perfect in 4 major league appearances spanning 3.1 IP, but he had just a .5 aLI. Burton was actually a pretty good reliever for the Reds from '07 to '09, going 10-3 with a 3.47 ERA, 139 K's, 70 walks, and 29 holds in 154 relief appearances and 161 IP. He allowed 145, an 8.1 H/9, and 13 homers, a 0.7 HR/9. He allowed a .286 BAbip mostly due to a 17% LD%, and he also allowed a good 66% IP%. However, he was lucky to post that 0.7 HR/9, allowing just a 5.7% HR/FB. He was certainly a decent reliever, but he just could stay completely healthy, missing time due to hamstring, lower back, upper back, shoulder, and asthma problems. If he can stay healthy (and remain on the roster), there's no real reason that he can't post an ERA in the high-3.00's for the Reds out of the bullpen. Jared Burton is a decent reliever for the Reds, and if they elect to designate him for assignment after Cueto and Bailey come back, some team will certainly want him and put him in their bullpen.
Closer:
Francisco Cordero might be in the most precarious position of any closer in the big leagues right now. Cordero, who will turn 36 in May, not only has Aroldis Chapman breathing down his neck, but also, he posted his worst ERA since 2001 in 2010. Cordero went 6-5 with a 3.84 ERA, 59 K's, 36 walks, 1 hold, and 40 saves (8 BS) in 75 relief appearances and 72.2 IP. He allowed 68 hits, an 8.4 H/9, and 5 homers, a 0.6 H/9. Another than the 40 saves, his numbers were pedestrian at best. But, you have to understand the circumstances. Cordero was on a playoff team for the first time in his career. He had been on Brewers teams and Rangers teams that were at least playoff competitors, but nevertheless, he had never been on a playoff team. With the Texas Rangers in 2004, Cordero had a 2.28 aLI, and on the Brewers in 2007, he had a 2.01 aLI, but he hadn't over 2.00 any other time until 2010, when he posted a 2.09 aLI. Cordero also appeared in 75 relief appearances the second-highest total of his career, trailing just 2006. But here's the question: at this point of his career, will Cordero be able to adjust to being a closer for a playoff team, or will he continue to struggle? You can add onto the drama that 2011 is Cordero's last guaranteed year on his contract (2012 is a team option). Will he come through, or will Chapman take his place? Looking at the stats, I would say that Cordero will falter. It's not like he was unlucky in '10, having a .296 BAbip despite a 21% LD% and allowing a 67% IP% that was his highest since 2002. He also had a 5.0% HR/FB right around his career average of 4.8%. But what do these stats really mean? Nothing. If Cordero can adjust to life as a closer on playoff team, when the pressure is on every single game and one blown save could be the difference between making the playoffs and heading home, he will be successful. If he is unable to adjust and continues to have that lacadasical attitude that some closers on losing teams have (that they want to do well, but some blown saves aren't the end of the world because their team is going to miss the playoffs by a landslide anyway), then he can say goodbye to the Reds. Obviously, Cordero has been a proven closer for a long time, and some team would certainly trade for him if given the right opportunity. But if he wants to continue to keep his value at its highest and be able to show the baseball world that he can help any team in the late innings, he has to succeed in 2011, and if he is traded, it would only be because Chapman was just too impressive to stay as a setup man. 2011 will be a big season for Francisco Cordero. He better step up.
Overview:
The Reds are pretty much the same team they were last year, and that was enough to win the NL Central. Their offense and defense are awe-inspiring, but their pitching holds them back. Their rotation is a huge question mark, and their bullpen may be as well. The Reds will still be a good team in 2011, but I think that they'll bound to take a bit of a step back.
2010 record: 91-71
Prediction: 89-73, 2nd in NL Central (in fight for NL Wild Card)
The Reds may win the NL Wild Card anyway, but they'll certainly make the playoffs if... Hernandez stays healthy, Phillips rebounds, Bruce takes another step forward, the rotation ranks in the top half of the league in ERA, the bullpen, and more specifically Francisco Cordero step up to the plate (figuratively obviously, I would that they don't have to often) and pitch at least pretty well.
Thursday, March 31, 2011
Tuesday, March 22, 2011
2011 MLB Preview: Chicago Cubs
102 years. The Cubs have gone 102 years without a World Series championship. In 2010, the Cubs weren't even close to even making the playoffs, let alone make a run at the World Series, going just 75-87, 5th in the NL Central. The Cubs are a different team now after acquiring Matt Garza in a trade with the Rays and Carlos Pena as a free agent while re-signing Kerry Wood. Will it be enough to propel the Cubs back to the playoffs?
Catcher:
The 2008 NL Rookie of the Year, 28 year old catcher Geovany Soto, finally came back to have a good season after a sophomore slump. Soto hit .280 with 18 doubles, 17 homers, 53 RBI, and a .393 OBP in 105 games. He was on the 15-day DL two separate times with a right shoulder injury, so you have to hope he can stay healthier because obviously, he's a better option than any of the Cubs' backup catchers. But, why did Soto go from a .285 BA in 2008 to a .218 BA in 2009 back up to a .280 BA in '10? It's nice for Soto and the Cubs that it happened, but why did it happen? What happened was his BAbip (batting average on balls in play) went from .332 in '08 to .246 in '09, back up to a .324 BAbip in '10. (The league average is .300.) But, why did that happen? Basically, what happened was that Soto had such an awful season in 2009 that it couldn't be predicted by any regular means. His LD% (line drive percentage) was an above-average 21% in his rookie season, but fell to just 16% in 2009 (the league average is 19%). In 2010, Soto's LD% came back with a vengeance, spiking all the way up to 25%. When Soto got a pitch to hit in 2010, he didn't often miss. But, that spike in LD% coincided with a decrease in IP% (in-play percentage). Soto's IP% was 63% in 2008, and actually went up to 64% in 2009. Soto traded some hard hits for more contact in 2009, and needless to say it didn't work out. In 2010, Soto traded quite a bit of contact for his high LD%, posting just a 58% IP%. (Keep in mind that Soto was putting the ball in play at a below-average rate from the beginning. The league average for IP% is 69%.) But, since that 58% IP% came along with the highest walk rate of his career (16.0% of his plate appearances compared to 12.9% in '09 and 11.0% in '08), it was certainly OK. How much can you complain about a .280 BA and a .393 OBP? In terms of his 17 homers in '10 though, he was very lucky to hit that many, needing a 12.1% HR/FB (percentage of balls hit to the outfield that went for homers). When he hit 23 homers in 2008, he had a 10.6% HR/FB. His HR/FB returned to right around neutral in 2009, falling to just 7.9%. That decline in 2009 had much more to do with his lack of hard contact rather than anythign else. Maybe his HR/FB will fall back down to around 10% in 2011, but if Soto stays healthy, he'll be OK. But, there's one more thing that could possibly be an issue: aLI (average leverage index- the average amount of pressure a player is under per game; 1.0 is average). In 2008, Soto primarily batted 5th, 6th, and 7th (but also occasionally 8th), and he was under a lot of pressure on the playoff-bound Cubs, having a 1.05 aLI. In 2009, Soto, despite his poor performance, batted primarily 5th, 6th, and 7th (but only almost never 8th), and had a 1.10 aLI. But in 2010, Soto batted primarily 7th and 8th, and had easily the lowest aLI of his career, .96. Soto took advantage of pitchers thinking that he wasn't such a good hitter anymore since he was batting in the latter part of the lineup, and was able to get some nice hits. We'll have to see where in the lineup Soto bats in '10, and if he bats higher up, he'll have to live up to the pressure. Soto is a decent defender, considering he posted a .995 Fld% at catcher in '10, but he had just a 22% CS%. He did allow only 2 passed balls. Because of his low CS%, Soto is just a decent defensive catcher. Overall, Geovany Soto was a good player in '10. He'll be a good player again in '11 as long as he can stay healthy, keep his LD% up, and survive higher-leverage situations if he's moved up in the lineup.
Soto will be backed up by Koyie Hill, who has been his regular replacement at catcher the past 2 seasons when he has suffered from injury or poor performance. Luckily for Soto, Hill was never able to prove himself as even a decent player when he has received starts. Hill, a 32 year old that came up in the Dodgers organization, hit just .214 in '10 with 13 doubles, 1 homer, 17 RBI, and just a .254 OBP in 77 games. It's not like Hill was very unlucky or something along those lines in '10- he had a .292 BAbip. Hill did have a 21% LD% and a 67% IP%, but he had a terrible 50.4% GB% (ground ball percentage). You could compare that to Soto's 36.0% GB% in 2010. Hill is an awful hitter, but most backup catchers earn their money defensively anyway. In 2010 though, Hill was awful defensively, posting a league average .992 Fld% with just an 18% CS% and 4 passed balls. Hill did have a .995 Fld% with a 40% CS% and just 2 passed balls in 2009, but that doesn't take away from how awful Hill was defensively in '10. Hill better rebound defensively, because his offense certainly won't (he has a career .215 BA in 256 career major league games). Hill needs a rebound defensively just to be an average big league backup, considering how bad of a hitter he is. Koyie Hill can give Soto an off-day every week or two, but if Soto gets hurt and he's forced to step in as the starter, the Cubs are in deep trouble.
First base:
From 2007 to 2010 with the Tampa Bay Rays, Carlos Pena's BA went down from .282 in '07 all the way down to .196 in '10. Can he rebound offensively with the Cubs? Pena, who will turn 33 in May, hit just .196 in '10 with 18 doubles, 28 homers, 84 RBI, and a .325 OBP in 144 games. Why did he hit just .196? He had just a .222 BAbip. But why did he have just a .222 BAbip? Turns out that Pena had the same problem in '10 that Soto had in '10- trading some hard hits for more contact. From 2007 to 2009, Pena had a 22% LD% and just a 49% IP%. In 2010, he had just a 17% LD%, but a 52% IP%. It's sort of ironic that Pena had his best IP% in a full season since 2004 with the Tigers in the year in which he posted the worse BA of his career. Pena had a 44.9% GB% in 2010. He had just a 29.0% GB% in 2009. Will Pena be able to get his BA back to at least back to the .227 BA that he had in '09 this season? If he wants to be a good hitter again, Pena has to hit more line drives. When he's at the plate, he can't worry about contact- he has to wait for his pitch and hit it well when he gets it. Everybody hates strikeouts, but Cubs fans while have to deal with Pena striking out around 160 times in 2011. If Pena can just get back to his approach from '07 to '09, he'll go down as a great signing for the Cubs. (In case you were wondering, Pena's 18.1% HR/FB in '10 was a bit below his 20.0% HR/FB the past 3 seasons, but Pena will definitely rebound in that regard. Defensively, it's hard to complain about Pena. He posted an above average .995 Fld% in '10 with above-average range (8.58 range factor per game [RF/G] compared to the league average of 7.41), but somehow he had a -2.5 UZR (don't ask me to explain ultimate zone rating). No matter what UZR says, it's hard to consider Pena a below-average defender. But, as long as Pena rebounds offensively, it doesn't matter too much exactly how good he does defensively. Carlos Pena needs to get back to hitting the ball hard in 2010, even if it costs him some amount of contact, and if he does, he'll end up being a great signing for the Cubs.
Pena will be backed up by the Cubs' primary infield backup, Jeff Baker, who is a natural second baseman, but who has experience at all 4 corner positions (although he'll primarily play just second base, first base, and third base). Baker, who will turn 30 in June, hit .272 in '10 with 13 doubles, 4 homers, 21 RBI, and a .326 OBP in 79 games. He had a .340 BAbip, but his career BAbip is .334, so it really wasn't that high (he has a 20% career LD%). Defensively, Baker posted just a .903 Fld% at third base, but was perfect in 26 games at second base while showing outstanding range (5.47 RF/9 compared to the 4.78 league average at second base), and he was also perfect in 4 games at first base and 4 in the outfield. For his career, Baker has a great .989 Fld% at second base with great range, a .939 Fld% at third base with above-average range, a .990 Fld% at first base with good range, and a .979 Fld% in 37 games in the outfield between left field and right field, showing poor range. Baker is a decent hitter, and he's very good defensively at second while being serviceable at the 4 corner positions. Jeff Baker is a good backup for the Cubs.
Second base:
25 year old Blake DeWitt, acquired from the Dodgers at the trade deadline in the Ted Lilly deal, hit .261 between the Dodgers and Cubs in '10 with 24 doubles, 5 homers, 52 RBI, 5 triples, and a .336 OBP in 135 games. DeWitt had a .313 BAbip, so he wasn't very lucky, but still, he hit just .261 with no other significant talents. He did have a 21% LD% and a 71% IP%, but no matter how many positive stats I say, DeWitt still hit .261. The one piece of goods news for the Cubs was that DeWitt had just a 3.2% HR/FB in 2010. When he had a closer-to-average 6.4 HR/FB in 2008, he hit 9 homers. DeWitt is not a good player, but maybe he would have at least some amount of value if he could hit double-digit homers. Defensively, DeWitt posted a below-average .979 Fld% at second base, although he did show slightly above-average range (4.83 RF/9 compared to the league average of 4.78). DeWitt was once an outstanding third baseman for the Dodgers, posting a great .969 Fld% at third base in 2008 (compared to the league average of .955) with a 3.10 RF/9 that was tops among NL third basemen. But, with Aramis Ramirez entrenched at third, DeWitt is stuck at second. DeWitt will be backed up by Jeff Baker, who could possibly take away significant playing time from DeWitt if his struggles continue. Blake DeWitt is a decent player at best for the Cubs.
Third base:
Aramis Ramirez used to be when of the best players in baseball. In 2006, Ramirez had arguably the best season of his career, hitting .291 with 38 doubles, a career-high 38 homers, a career-high 119 RBI, 93 runs, and a .352 OBP in 157 games. After the season, the Cubs re-signed Ramirez to a 5 year, 72 million dollar contract with a 16 million option for the 6th year. The first couple of seasons in the contract went well, with Ramirez hitting .310 with 26 homers and 101 RBI in '07, and .289 with 27 homers and 111 RBI in '08. But in '09, everything went wrong for Ramirez. He missed 11 games early in the season with a couple of minor injuries, but on May 9th, he suffered a dislocated left shoulder that sidelined him until July 6th. Ramirez also missed 14 days the rest of the year with various other injuries. Ramirez appeared in just 82 games, hitting .317 with 15 homers and 65 RBI. At least when he was healthy, he did well. But in 2010, while Ramirez was mostly healthy, the level of performance was just not there. Ramirez hit .241 with 21 doubles, 25 homers, 83 RBI, and just a .294 OBP in 124 games. Injuries have made Ramirez into a shadow over his former self. Ramirez had just a .245 BAbip in '10, compared to his .287 career BAbip. His low BAbip was because of just a 16% LD%, the lowest of his career. And unlike Soto and Pena, it didn't come with an increase in IP%. He had a 70% IP%, the third-lowest of his career. His career IP% is 73% and he had a 75% IP%. In my opinion and in the opinion of many others, there's no way Ramirez ever gets back to being a star. If everything goes right in 2011, maybe Ramirez will stay healthy and hit .280 with 25 homers and drive in 100 runs. But, chances are he'll only play in around 100 games hit around .250, hit maybe 17 homers and drive in 70 runs. Maybe even that's optimistic. Defensively, Ramirez posted just a .939 Fld% at third base in '10 with just a 2.21 RF/G compared to the league average of 2.54. Ramirez has always been a below-average defender (.948 career Fld%, .251 RF/G), but in 2010, he took that to new levels. Ramirez will be backed up by Baker. 2011 is Ramirez's contract year. It's unfortunate that in all likelihood, Ramirez will be fighting through an injury-riddled season and be signing a minor league contract with someone next offseason even though he'll be just 33 years old.
Shortstop:
Young shortstop Starlin Castro had a very good rookie year in '10, hitting .300 with 31 doubles, 3 homers, 41 RBI, 5 triples, 10 stolen bases, and a .347 OBP in 125 games. Castro, who will turn 21 on March 24th, was the the youngest player in the NL but still ranked 10th in the league in BA. Castro had a .346 BAbip in '10, but that was because of a 20% LD% and a great 78% IP%. Wait a second- he had a 51.3% GB%. How did he manage to hit .300 with such a high ground ball rate? Was he just really lucky in '10? Well, although you may not have noticed it because of Castro's low amount of stolen bases, but he's very fast. He stole 28 bases in his only full minor league season. Castro was among the league leaders in the NL with 25 infield hits. As long as Castro can keep beating out those infield hits, he'll be fine. Defensively however, Castro needs work. He posted just a .950 Fld% at SS compared to the league average of .972, although he did post slightly above-average range (4.33 RF/G compared to the league average of 4.31). He made the second-most errors in the NL (behind Nats shortstop Ian Desmond). The Cubs have to hope that Castro's poor range in 2010 was just an aberration. After all, he did have a 4.74 RF/G at shortstop in the minors. Hopefully the Cubs coaching staff can fix Castro's defensive problems. Castro is a good player overall for the Cubs, but while he looks to improve offensively in 2011, his poor defense could hold him back.
Castro will be backed up by Darwin Barney. Barney, a 25 year old middle infielder, hit .241 in 30 games for the Cubs with 4 doubles, no homers, 2 RBI, and a .294 OBP. Barney posted a .976 Fld% between shortstop, second base, and third base, with both of his errors coming at second base. At Triple-A Iowa, Barney hit .299 with 24 doubles, 2 homers, 49 RBI, 4 triples, 72 runs, 11 stolen bases, and a .333 OBP in 114 games. He posted a .970 Fld% at shortstop in the minors (exactly the league average). Barney posted just a 4.14 RF/G compared to the 4.27 RF/G that was the NL's league average at shortstop. You have to hope that his poor range at second was somewhat of a fluke, especially considering he owns a 4.32 RF/G in the minors. Barney was perfect in 2 games at second base. Darwin Barney doesn't seem like a great backup, considering his not a great hitter and he's only decent defensively, but at least he's a better defensive shortstop than Baker, and he'll be good enough as a backup for the Cubs.
Left field:
Alfonso Soriano, now 35 years old, had a bounce-back year of sorts in '10, hitting .258 with 40 doubles (his most since 2007), 24 homers, 79 RBI, and a .322 OBP in 147 games (his most since 2006). Soriano was healthy in 2011, missing just 6 games due to injury, and it paid off. It's unfortunate for him that he's nothing compared to the player he used to be. Remember when Soriano used to be a player that had a chance to go 40-40 every single year? Soriano went 39-41 in 2002, 38-35 in 2003, 36-30 in 2005, and then finally 46-41 in 2006. He was just 24-5 in 2010. Soriano had a .295 BAbip with an 18%, so there's no reason to think his BA will ever climb back up to his .277 career average again. Soriano had a 10.4% HR/FB in '10, a bit short of his 11.7% career HR/FB, so maybe Soriano's best-case scenario in 2011 has him hitting 30 homers. Soriano is still a decent hitter, but he won't be anywhere near the player he's supposed to be based on his contract (which still has 4 years and 72 million dollars remaining). Defensively, Soriano was pretty awful, posting just a .968 Fld% compared to the league average of .985 for left fielders, with poor range (1.70 RF/9 ocmpared to the league average of 2.17). It's sad that Alfonso Soriano, who used to be one of the best players in baseball, is now a decent player at best.
Soriano will be backed up by Tyler Colvin and either Reed Johnson or Fernando Perez, who are competing for the Cubs 5th outfielder job. Colvin, OK now after the broken bat incident, had a nice rookie season, hitting .254 with 18 doubles, 20 homers, 56 RBI, 5 triples, 6 stolen bases, and a .316 OBP in 135 games. The 26 year old outfielder had a .296 BAbip in '10 despite a 17% LD% and a 61% IP%, so he may never hit too much better than he did in '10. He also had an astronomical 15.6% HR/FB, so he might have hit homers at a lesser rate in coming years (not that he won't ever hit 20 homers- he received just 394 plate appearances in 2010). It's clear that Colvin just isn't that good of a player. Defensively, Colvin is pretty awful, considering he posted a .967 Fld% between all 3 outfield positions in '10 with poor range in left field and center field. He posted just a .952 Fld% in right field. Colvin seems like he'll be best suited in a backup role unless he makes huge improvements both offensively and defensively. Johnson, back with the Cubs after playing for the LA Dodgers in 2010, hit .262 in '10 with 11 doubles, 2 homers, 15 RBI, and a .291 OBP in 102 games. He did miss most of August with back spasms. He was actually perfect defensively in the outfield in '10 and even showed above-average range in left field. He's a solid backup as long as he stays healthy. Perez, acquired in the Matt Garza trade, spent all of 2010 at the Rays' Triple-A Durham, hitting just .223 with 11 doubles, 4 homers, 32 RBI, 24 stolen bases, and a .280 OBP in 116 games. Perez, who will turn 28 in April, hit .288 with 43 stolen bases at Durham in 2008, but then missed almost all of '09 after undergoing surgery for a dislocated wrist, playing in just 17 games in the minors and 18 in the majors. Maybe he was still suffering after-effects in '10.That must be the reason, especially considering Perez had a .287 BAbip. Defensively, Perez owns a .978 career Fld% in the outfield overall with solid range, so he's a decent player. In 37 career major league games (coming '07 and '08), he has not made a single error, so that's a good sign. Nevertheless, it doesn't appear that Perez is better than Johnson at all, so he'll probably be stuck in the minors to begin the year. The Cubs have solid depth behind Soriano.
Centerfield:
After signing with the Cubs in '10 after a career-year with the Texas Rangers, there was certainly some amount of doubt that Marlon Byrd would keep up his solid production, especially because not only was he leaving Arlington, but also he was turning 32. While maybe he didn't have as good year overall in '10, he certainly lived up to the billing, hitting .293 with 39 doubles, 12 homers, 66 RBI, 84 runs, and a .346 OBP in 152 games. Byrd had a .335 BAbip to help bring his BA up to .293 from .283 in '10. His LD% remained the same at 19% from '09 to '10, but the reason his BAbip went up from .308 to .335 was because his IF/FB (percentage of fly balls in the infield [i.e. percentage of fly balls that were popups]) shot down from 13% to 5%. Byrd improved his IP% from 73% in '09 to 75% in '10. Basically what happened was that Byrd made more contact in '10 than in '09 and more solid contact because although his LD% didn't increase, his IF/FB went down quite a bit. But, that increase in contact caused Byrd's HR/FB to go down from 8.5% to 5.6% from '09 to '10. That's why he went from 20 homers in '09 to 12 homers in '10. Still, Byrd is definitely a solid offensive player. Byrd is more well known for his stellar defense, and 2010 was no difference as he posted an above-average .992 Fld% in centerfield with above average range (2.69 RF/9 compared to the league average of 2.59). He also had 6 outfield assists.Byrd is a very good player on both sides of the ball for the Cubs. Byrd will be backed up by Johnson or Perez. Marlon Byrd's stellar play has made the Cubs look good for signing him to a 3-year contract.
Right field:
2011 is the last year of Kosuke Fukudome's contract. He better produce offensively if he wants to stay in the US. Fukudome, who will turn 34 in April, hit .263 in '10 with 20 doubles, 13 homers, just 44 RBI, and a .371 OBP in 130 games. How he couldn't manage to drive in 50 runs is beyond me. He actually had his worst BAbip in the States, just .287, but still posted his best BA. His 17% LD% was also his lowest in the US, and his 11% IF/FB was the highest, so pretty much what happened was everything evened out for Fukudome and he proved to be a decent player. However, his 9.6% HR/FB was easily the highest of his career. Fukudome proved in '10 that he's at least an average major leaguer offensively. Defensively, Fukudome was rock-solid, posting a significantly above-average .995 Fld% with average range (2.14 RF/9 compared to the league average of 2.17). He's a good player. He'll be backed up by Colvin and Johnson or Perez. Fukudome needs one more solid season to prove that he belongs on a major league team (if he doesn't want to return to Japan). He should be able manage that in 2011.
Starting rotation:
Ryan Dempster, who will turn 34 in May, didn't do anything besides put up another solid season in 2010, going 15-12 with a 3.85 ERA and 208 K's compared to 86 walks allowed in 34 starts and 215.1 IP. He allowed 198 hits, 8.3 per 9 innings, and 25 homers, a 1.0 HR/9. Dempster was actually pretty unlucky in 2011, allowing a .298 BAbip despite just a 14% LD%. He also allowed a good 47.4% GB%. Dempster only real problem, homers allowed (which led to his 3.99 FIP [fielding independent equivalent of ERA]), was actually a fluke, considering he allowed a 9.2% HR/FB compared to his career HR/FB to 7.8%. Dempster is really a good pitcher. Dempster is even a solid hitting pitcher. He did hit just .136 with 2 RBI, but he had 16 sac bunts. Ryan Dempster is a solid ace and deserves to start Opening Day for the Cubs.
Lining up as the Cubs' second starter in the rotation is 27 year old right-hander Matt Garza, acquired this offseason in the big trade with the Rays. Garza went 15-10 in '10 with a 3.91 ERA and 150 K's compared to 63 walks in 32 starts, 1 relief appearances and 204.2 IP. Garza alllowed 193 hits, an 8.5 H/9, and 28 homers, a bad 1.2 HR/9. It certainly wasn't a great performance by Garza, but it was his second-best ERA for a full season behind his 3.70 ERA in 2008. However, Garza posted his worst GB% in a season since 2006 (35.8%), and his worse FIP since '06 as well (4.42). Garza allowed a .273, certainly below the league average, but exactly at his average for the past 3 seasons. Could it be that Garza was just really lucky with the Rays? Garza allowed that .273 BAbip despite allowing a 20% LD%, a 69% IP%, and a 39% GB%. But, he did have an above-average 16% IF/FB. He also allowed just a 7.9% HR/FB during that time period. Also, you have to factor in that Garza is going from Tropicana Park, a pitcher's ballpark to Wrigley Field, which we all know is a hitter's park. It would seem that in switching between the two ballparks and factoring how, his ERA is going to start looking a lot more like his FIP's have been to the past 3 years (4.32). But, that would be if his BAbip actually returns to neutral. Considering Garza has posted a BAbip in the .270's for three consecutive years, will he be putting up those type of BAbip's for the foreseeable future? He better, or he'll be a huge disappointment for the Cubs.
Carlos Zambrano had a bizarre season in '10. He started the season in the rotation as the Cubs' ace, but after 4 starts in which he posted a 7.45 ERA, he was relegated to the bullpen. Zambrano posted a 4.15 ERA and 4 holds in 13 relief appearances between late April and late May. Zambrano then posted a 5.01 ERA in 5 starts after he returned to the rotation in June, but after that sub-par performance, the Cubs sent him down to the minor leagues for 4 relief appearances. But after he came back, he finally was himself again, he posted a 4.91 ERA in 3 relief appearances (primarily because he allowed a .500 BAbip) before he returned to the Cubs rotation once again. In 11 starts between August and September, going 8-0 with just a 1.41 ERA. At the end of it all, Zambrano actually had a good year, going 11-6 with a 3.33 ERA (his lowest since 2005), 117 K's, 69 walks, and 4 holds in 20 starts and 16 relief appearances. He allowed 119 hits, an 8.3 H/9, and just 7 homers, a 0.5 HR/9. He had a .309 BAbip, primarily because he allowed a 21% LD%, but he did have a 64% IP% and a 43.6% GB%. As long as he can stay consistently good, Zambrano will rise up to be the Cubs' ace once again. Considering that he's turning 30 in June and he has a vesting option in his contract if he finishes 1st or 2nd in the Cy Young voting this year, it would certainly be in his best interests and obviously the Cubs' if he can get back to being that great albeit crazy pitcher we all know him as. Good thing Zambrano is no slouch with the bat. Zambrano had another great hitting year for a pitcher in '10, hitting .231 with 1 homer, 6 RBI, and 2 sac bunts. It was a far cry from his two consecutive Silver Slugger seasons in '08 and '09 (in which he hit 4 homers each year), but it was still a good season for Zambrano. Carlos Zambrano is primed for a resurgence in 2011.
28 year old righty Randy Wells had a bit of a sophomore slump in 2010, but he still had a decent year, going just 8-14, but with a 4.26 ERA and 144 K's compared to 63 walks in 32 starts and 194.1 IP. He allowed 209 hits, over a hit per inning at 9.7 per 9, and 19 homers, a decent ratio of 0.9 per 9. Again, those are decent stats, but Wells went 12-10 with a 3.05 ERA, 104 K's, 46 walks, 165 hits allowed (9.0 H/9), and 14 homers allowed (0.8 HR/9) in 27 starts and 165.1 IP in his rookie year of 2009. What happened? Well, Wells allowed a .315 BAbip compared to a .292 BAbip his rookie year. His LD% climbed from 17% to 19%, but that should have been mostly canceled out because Wells IP% against him fell from 75% to 72%. His GB% also remained around the same, falling slightly from 47.9% to 46.9%. So what happened? His IF/FB and DP% (percentage of double plays out of opportunities) fell from 13% and 16% respectively to 9% and 7%. In addition, his LOB% dropped. LOB%, strand rate of base runners allowed, fell from 76.0% to 72.0%. When combine all those with Wells increase in HR/FB from 5.9% to 6.5%, that's why his ERA went up significantly. When everything evens out, hopefully Wells can get his ERA at least under 4.00 again. With the bat, Wells is a halfway-decent hitting pitcher, considering he hit .173 in '10 with 3 RBI and 9 sac bunts. Randy Wells is a pretty good pitcher for the Cubs.
Carlos Silva and Andrew Cashner are competing for the 5th slot in the Cubs rotation.
Silva had a decent year in 2010 despite missing almost all of August with cardiac ablation surgery, going 10-6 for the Cubs with 80 K's (a career high 6.4 K/9), and just 24 walks in 21 starts and 113 IP. He allowed 120 hits, a 9.6 H/9, and 11 homers, a 0.9 HR/9. Silva, who will turn 31 in late April did allow a .309 BAbip despite an 18% LD% and a 48.2% GB%. However, Silva did allow a 74% IP%. One potential problem with Silva going forward is HR/FB- he's bound to allow a few more homers in 2011 considering he allowed a 6.5% HR/FB in '10. Still, Silva is a decent pitcher overall and a perfectly fine 5th starter. But, what's worrying the Cubs and their fans has been Silva's performance so far this spring. Silva has an awful 15.88 ERA in 11.1 spring training innings, allowing 4 home runs. That's what has given Andrew Cashner an opportunity.
Cashner, a 24 year old right-hander, began 2010 so well between Double-A Tennessee and Triple-A Iowa, going 6-1 with a 2.05 ERA in 9 starts and 2 relief appearances that he was quickly promoted to the major league club. With the Cubs, Cashner went 2-6 with a 4.80 ERA, 50 K's, 30 walks, and 16 holds in 53 relief appearances and 54.1 IP. Other than a stretch from July 27th to August 23rd in which Cashner was the unluckiest pitcher in baseball, allowing a .515 BAbip, Cashner did well, posting a 2.42 ERA with a .243 BAbip before that terrible stretch and a 1.53 ERA with a .279 BAbip after it. If he remains in the bullpen in 2011, Cashner should be able to piece it all together and have a very good season. But how would Cashner do in the rotation? In his minor league career, Cashner appeared in 43 games, 39 of which were starts, and he went 10-7 with a 2.79 ERA, 153 K's, 80 walks, 139 hits allowed (7.1 H/9), and 3 homers (a minuscule 0.2 HR/9) in 177.1 IP. He did have a .271 BAbip (there's no website that lists how many sac flies Cashner allowed in the minors, so that .271 number could be a few points off), so he was somewhat lucky. But at Double-A, where Cashner spent the most time, he had a 3.15 ERA, although he did have a .253 BAbip. Looking at that, Cashner maybe would have a high-3.00's ERA if he was starter in the majors (based on his BAbip evening out and the level switch). That would be better than Silva. Cashner is pitching to a High-3.00's ERA so far in spring training, posting a 3.97 ERA in 11.1 IP. Cashner will be given a long look for the 5th starter job, and if he does win the job, Silva will surely be traded. If Silva is given the nod, Cashner will have a spot in the bullpen.
Bullpen:
Kerry Wood always wanted to come back. The 33 year old right-hander turn down more lucrative offers from several teams to come back to the Cubs for the low price of just 1.5 million dollars on a 1-year contract. Sounds like a bit of a bargain for the Cubs. Wood began 2010 the Indians, but during camp, he suffered a shoulder strain and was out until May. From May until mid-July, Wood really struggled, appearing in 23 games saving 8 of 11 games, and posting a 6.30 ERA before he re-aggravated his shoulder strain and was put on the DL again. Wood didn't go off the DL until July 31st, when he was traded to the Yankees for two players to be named later. Once he arrived in New York, everything changed. Wood was healthy and was a dominant force in the Yankee bullpen, going 2-0 with 9 holds and just a 0.69 ERA in 24 relief appearances. Kerry Wood, the dominant pitcher, was back, albeit as a setup man. He'll play the same role in 2011, setting up Carlos Marmol. Overall in 2010, Wood went 3-4 with a 3.13 ERA, 49 K's, 29 walks, 35 hits allowed (6.8 H/9), 4 homers allowed (0.8 HR/.9), 10 holds, and 8 saves in 47 relief appearances and 46 IP. How will he do in 2011? Overall in 2010, batters had a .272 BAbip against Wood. He allowed a league average 19% LD% and a below-average 39% GB%, but the reason that Wood was so good was that he allowed just a 57% IP%. That 57% IP% goes right along with his 56% career IP%. That's one of the reasons why Wood has been a great pitcher in his career, at least for short stretches (with another reason being his 10.4 career K/9). Wood was somewhat lucky another regard in '10- HR/FB. He had a 6.3% HR/FB in '10 compared to his 8.6% career HR/FB. But the real potential problem for Wood in 2011 revolves around his LOB%. Wood allowed an extremely high 5.7 BB/9 in '10. How did he managed a low-3.00's ERA overall in '10 despite that high walk rate? An 81.4% LOB%. Wood's career LOB% is 76.3%. Despite all this, when everything evens out, Wood could have as good a year or better in 2011 when everything evens out. Wood was not anywhere near as bad as his stint in Cleveland in 2010 or as good as his stint with the Yankees. He obviously won't put up an ERA under 2.00 or anything, but he could certainly put up an ERA under 3.00. The worst-case scenario (unless he gets hurt) is Wood putting up his 3.45 career ERA as a reliever. While the Cubs would obviously want Wood to have a great year, whether he has an ERA under 3.00 or over 3.40, he'll be an effective setup man to help bridge the gap between the starters and Carlos Marmol. Kerry Wood certainly won't put up the 0.69 ERA that he had with the Yankees last season in 2011, but as long as he stays healthy, he'll be a good reliever for the Cubs.
28 year old lefty Sean Marshall had an outstanding year for the Cubs in 2010, going 7-5 with a 2.65 ERA, 90 K's, just 25 walks, 58 hits allowed (7.0 H/9), 3 homers allowed (0.4 HR/9), 22 holds, and 1 save in 80 relief appearances and 74.2 IP. Marshall did this all while allowing a .297 BAbip. Marshall actually allowed a 23% LD%, but he had a great 52.2% GB% and he allowed a good 60% IP%. He also allowed a 74.3% LOB% that wasn't too far off from Marshall's career average of 72.1%. But, Marshall was extremely lucky in terms of HR/FB. He allowed just a 3.6% HR/FB compared to his 8.6% career HR/FB. He also allowed just a 4.9% XBH% (extra base hit percentage among batters faced) compared to the league average of 7.9% and his career average of 7.5%. When everything evens out, Marshall will certainly have a higher ERA, probably over 3.00. Even so, he's a good reliever, but he won't be one of the best lefty relievers in the majors in '10. Sean Marshall is due for a bit of a let-down in 2011, but he'll still be a good reliever for the Cubs.
I was at Thomas Diamond's major league debut this past season, an August 3rd start at Wrigley Field against the Milwaukee Brewers. Diamond, who will turn 28 in April, had a decent debut, allowing 3 runs on 7 hits in 6 innings, striking out 10 and walking 3 in a 4-3 loss to the Brewers. But, in his next 2 starts, Diamond allowed 9 combined earned runs in 7 combined innings. Those were his final starts of the year. Diamond was then relegated to the bullpen, where he did do better, but better is a comparative word. He went 1-0 with a 5.63 ERA and no holds. Is there any hope for Diamond in 2011? Well, Diamond had a .378 BAbip in '10, but he did allow an awful 25% LD%. According to that, it would appear the Diamond is just destined to be an awful reliever. However, Diamond allowed just a 54% IP%, a 65.2% LOB%, and a 9.4% HR/FB. When those all even out, hopefully Diamond will at least be a decent reliever. The best-case scenario for Diamond in 2011 is probably his 2009 season in the minors at Double-A Frisco in the Texas Rangers organization. At Frisco in '09, Diamond went 1-3 with a 3.63 ERA, 50 K's, 37 walks, 43 hits allowed (8.7 H/9), 3 homers allowed (0.6 HR/9), and 1 save (I can't find how many holds he had) in 32 relief appearances and 44.2 IP. Hopefully his control would be better though if he did put up similar numbers to that in 2011- he had an awful 7.5 BB/9. In '08 at Frisco, Diamond had a 72.3% LOB% and a 4.52 FIP. You have to think Diamond will be much better in 2011, giving the Cubs some decent long-relief innings, putting up an ERA in the low-4.00's or high-3.00's. Thomas Diamond should be a decent long reliever for the Cubs in 2011.
There are 5 relievers competing for the final two spots on the Cubs' pitching staff: Marcos Mateo, Jim Russell, Scott Maine, Jeff Samardzija, and Casey Coleman.
Mateo, who will turn 27 in April, had a good season in the minors in '10, going 0-1 with a 3.15 ERA, 45 K's, just 7 walks, 35 hits allowed (9.2 H/9), 2 homers allowed (0.5 HR/9), and 4 saves in 25 relief appearances, 1 of which was at Rookie ball, 16 of which were at Double-A Tennessee, and 8 of which were at Triple-A Iowa, along with 1 start at Tennessee. Mateo was promoted to the majors in August, and it did not go well. He went 0-1 with a 5.82 ERA, 26 K's, 9 walks, 20 hits allowed (8.3 H/9), 6 homers allowed (2.5 HR/9) and 1 hold in 21 relief appearances and 21.2 IP. He actually allowed just a .275 BAbip despite a 21% LD%. But that was counteracted by a 55% IP%. Really, the reason Mateo struggled was homers allowed, but of course he was unlucky in allowing 2.5 homers per 9 innings. He allowed an unbelievable 17.6% HR/FB. Wow. He also allowed a 9.7% XBH%. When everything evens out, Mateo should be fine and be able to post a low-3.00's ERA at the major league level. In addition to what I'm saying, Mateo has a 1.80 ERA in 5 spring training relief appearances and 5 IP, so he has a very strong case for making the roster. Marcos Mateo has the potential to be a pretty good reliever for the Cubs if he makes the team.
Russell spent almost all of 2010 on the big league roster for the Cubs, and it did not go well. The 25 year old lefty went 1-1 in '10 with a 4.96 ERA, 42 K's, 11 walks, 55 hits allowed (10.1 H/9), 11 homers allowed (2.0 HR/9), and 6 holds in 57 relief appearances and 49 IP. Russell allowed a .297 BAbip, allowing a 19% LD% and a 68% IP%, but he was unlucky in terms of LOB% and HR/FB. Russell had just a 60.4% LOB% and a 11.8% HR/FB. When everything evens out, Russell should be much better in 2011. Unfortunately for Russell, he's getting killed so far in spring training, considering he has a 7.56 ERA in 3 relief appearances and 1 start. His hopes for the Cubs roster are hanging by a thread. He better start improving a lot in the latter part of spring training if he wants to make the team and have a chance to atone for his bad 2010. But even if he doesn't make the team out of spring training, we will see him in the majors at some point in 2011. Russell might be bound to rebound in 2011 when his luck evens out, but because of his awful performance so far this spring, he may not get the chance, at least to begin the year.
Another lefty, 26 year old Scott Maine, had a very nice season in the minors in 2011, going 4-2 with a 3.14 ERA, 62 K's, 25 K's, 45 hits allowed (7.1 H/9), 5 homers allowed (0.8 HR/9), and 10 saves in 45 relief appearances and 57.1 IP. He was then promoted to the majors, and he continued to pitch well, going 0-0 with a 2.08 ERA, 11 K's, 5 walks, 9 hits allowed (6.2 H/9), 1 homer allowed (0.7 HR/9), and 3 holds in 13 relief appearances and 13 IP. He didn't appear in too many pressure situations, having just a .5 aLI, but he actually allowed a .000 BA against him in the at-bats against him in high leverage and medium leverage situations. Overall in the majors in '10, Maine allowed just a .216 BAbip, even though he allowed an 18% LD% and a 69% IP%. But, Maine allowed a great 55.3% GB%. Maine was lucky in terms of BAbip, but not exceedingly lucky. Maine was also lucky in terms of LOB%, having a pretty high 79.4% LOB%. His HR/FB was around neutral at 6.7%. When everything evens out, Maine will certainly have a higher ERA in '10, but he should still post an ERA under 3.00 (consider that his ERA would have to go up .92 to get to 3.00). Maine has allowed a 6.00 ERA in 6 relief appearances and 6 IP, but he still has a good chance of making the Cubs' roster. Scott Maine has a chance to be a good reliever for the Cubs in 2011 if he can make the team.
Samardzija, the 26 year old right-hander and ex. Notre Dame wide receiver, had a very disappointing season in '10. At Triple-A Iowa, Samardzija was just decent, going 11-3 with a 4.37 ERA, 102 K's, 67 walks, 86 hits allowed (7.0 H/9), and 9 homers allowed (0.7 HR/9) in 20 starts, 15 relief appearances, and 111.1 IP. In 7 major league games, 3 of which were starts, Samardzija was terrible, posting an 8.38 ERA, and walking 20 while striking out just 9. Samardzija was a promising young reliever after posting a 2.28 ERA in 26 major league relief appearances in '08, but since then, Samardzija has a 7.83 ERA in 22 relief appearances and 5 starts in the majors. What happened? While his BAbip, LD%, and IP% have varied, his HR/FB, LOB%, and GB% have gone in the wrong directions. His HR/FB was actually 0.0 in '08, but has been 10.9% since then. His LOB% was 70% in '08, but went down to 63.2% in '09 and just 56.2% in '10. His GB% went down from 45.7% to 41.2% to just 30.7% in '10. These trends are certainly not encouraging. Will Samardzija ever be an effective big league reliever? The Cubs certainly hope so, but it's certainly no sure thing. Samardzija has a 6.43 ERA in 7 spring training relief appearances and 7 IP, so it's unlikely that he'll make the Cubs out of spring training. He better get back on track at Triple-A Iowa in '11. Jeff Samardzija is unlikely to help the Cubs out of the bullpen in 2011.
Coleman, a 23 year old righty, had a pretty good season as as starter at High-A Iowa in '10, going 10-7 with a 4.07 ERA, 59 K's, and 35 walks in 20 starts and 117.1 IP. He allowed 106 hits, an 8.1 H/9, and 10 homers, a 0.8 HR/9. Coleman's problem is that he doesn't strike anybody out. He had just a 4.5 K/9 in 2010 and owns just a 5.2 K/9 for his career. Coleman also appeared in 12 major league games, 8 of which were starting, going 4-2 with a 4.11 ERA, 27 K's, and 25 walks in 57 IP. He actually had a 3.33 ERA as a starter compared to an 8.64 ERA as a reliever, although is K/9 went up from 4.1 as a starter to 5.4 as a reliever. Coleman is a decent starter, but the Cubs don't have any room in their rotation for Coleman and he doesn't profile well in the bullpen. Coleman has a 6.43 ERA in 3 relief appearances and 7 IP so far in spring training. Casey Coleman is going to be a 5th starter for the Cubs or some other major league team some day, but that's probably not going to happen in 2011.
I would guess that Mateo and Main make the Cubs' bullpen out of spring training.
Closer:
28 year old hard-throwing right-hander Carlos Marmol had his first great season as a closer in '10, going 2-3 with a 2.55 ERA, 138 K's (an unbelievable 16.0 K/9), 52 walks (6.0 BB/9), 40 hits allowed (just a 4.6 H/9), just 1 homer allowed (0.1 HR/9), and 38 saves (5 blown saves) in 77 relief appearances and 77.2 IP. Is Marmol due for an encore in 2011? You would think that because Marmol allowed just a 4.6 H/9, he was extremely lucky in terms of BAbip. He was not at all, allowing a .293 BAbip, the highest of his career. Marmol did allow a league-average 19% LD%, but he allowed just a 40% IP% that easily canceled that out. Marmol was just plain incredible in terms of allowing so few hits. However, Marmol was lucky in allowing just 1 homer, having a 1.4% HR/FB. He also allowed just a 3.3% XBH%. But, Marmol wasn't necessarily that lucky. He had a 2.5% HR/FB and a 4.5% XBH% in 2009. Marmol just did not allow very much hard contact. Marmol might not be quite as good in 2011, but he should still have a great year and post an ERA under 2.90 once again, maybe even reaching 40 saves. Unless Marmol melts down and starts walking every single batter (like he did in 2009, allowing a 7.9 BB/9), Marmol will have another great year in 2011. Carlos Marmol is a great closer for the Cubs.
Overview:
The Cubs will be a good team in 2011. They have a good lineup, although their defense isn't great. The top three in their rotation are very good, and the back end is pretty good as well. Their bullpen is solid, with Marmol slamming the door. The Cubs are a good team, not a great team, but they still have a chance to win the NL Central or the NL Wild Card. Will they make the playoffs? Again, they have a chance, but it certainly won't be easy.
2010 Record: 75-87
Prediction: 87-75, 3rd in NL Central
The Cubs will make the playoffs if...Soriano and Ramirez show some flashes of their former glory and have greats years, Dempster has another very good year, Garza steps up for his new team, Zambrano is a dependable starter for the entire season, Wood has another very good year as a setup man, Marmol has an even better year as a closer.
Catcher:
The 2008 NL Rookie of the Year, 28 year old catcher Geovany Soto, finally came back to have a good season after a sophomore slump. Soto hit .280 with 18 doubles, 17 homers, 53 RBI, and a .393 OBP in 105 games. He was on the 15-day DL two separate times with a right shoulder injury, so you have to hope he can stay healthier because obviously, he's a better option than any of the Cubs' backup catchers. But, why did Soto go from a .285 BA in 2008 to a .218 BA in 2009 back up to a .280 BA in '10? It's nice for Soto and the Cubs that it happened, but why did it happen? What happened was his BAbip (batting average on balls in play) went from .332 in '08 to .246 in '09, back up to a .324 BAbip in '10. (The league average is .300.) But, why did that happen? Basically, what happened was that Soto had such an awful season in 2009 that it couldn't be predicted by any regular means. His LD% (line drive percentage) was an above-average 21% in his rookie season, but fell to just 16% in 2009 (the league average is 19%). In 2010, Soto's LD% came back with a vengeance, spiking all the way up to 25%. When Soto got a pitch to hit in 2010, he didn't often miss. But, that spike in LD% coincided with a decrease in IP% (in-play percentage). Soto's IP% was 63% in 2008, and actually went up to 64% in 2009. Soto traded some hard hits for more contact in 2009, and needless to say it didn't work out. In 2010, Soto traded quite a bit of contact for his high LD%, posting just a 58% IP%. (Keep in mind that Soto was putting the ball in play at a below-average rate from the beginning. The league average for IP% is 69%.) But, since that 58% IP% came along with the highest walk rate of his career (16.0% of his plate appearances compared to 12.9% in '09 and 11.0% in '08), it was certainly OK. How much can you complain about a .280 BA and a .393 OBP? In terms of his 17 homers in '10 though, he was very lucky to hit that many, needing a 12.1% HR/FB (percentage of balls hit to the outfield that went for homers). When he hit 23 homers in 2008, he had a 10.6% HR/FB. His HR/FB returned to right around neutral in 2009, falling to just 7.9%. That decline in 2009 had much more to do with his lack of hard contact rather than anythign else. Maybe his HR/FB will fall back down to around 10% in 2011, but if Soto stays healthy, he'll be OK. But, there's one more thing that could possibly be an issue: aLI (average leverage index- the average amount of pressure a player is under per game; 1.0 is average). In 2008, Soto primarily batted 5th, 6th, and 7th (but also occasionally 8th), and he was under a lot of pressure on the playoff-bound Cubs, having a 1.05 aLI. In 2009, Soto, despite his poor performance, batted primarily 5th, 6th, and 7th (but only almost never 8th), and had a 1.10 aLI. But in 2010, Soto batted primarily 7th and 8th, and had easily the lowest aLI of his career, .96. Soto took advantage of pitchers thinking that he wasn't such a good hitter anymore since he was batting in the latter part of the lineup, and was able to get some nice hits. We'll have to see where in the lineup Soto bats in '10, and if he bats higher up, he'll have to live up to the pressure. Soto is a decent defender, considering he posted a .995 Fld% at catcher in '10, but he had just a 22% CS%. He did allow only 2 passed balls. Because of his low CS%, Soto is just a decent defensive catcher. Overall, Geovany Soto was a good player in '10. He'll be a good player again in '11 as long as he can stay healthy, keep his LD% up, and survive higher-leverage situations if he's moved up in the lineup.
Soto will be backed up by Koyie Hill, who has been his regular replacement at catcher the past 2 seasons when he has suffered from injury or poor performance. Luckily for Soto, Hill was never able to prove himself as even a decent player when he has received starts. Hill, a 32 year old that came up in the Dodgers organization, hit just .214 in '10 with 13 doubles, 1 homer, 17 RBI, and just a .254 OBP in 77 games. It's not like Hill was very unlucky or something along those lines in '10- he had a .292 BAbip. Hill did have a 21% LD% and a 67% IP%, but he had a terrible 50.4% GB% (ground ball percentage). You could compare that to Soto's 36.0% GB% in 2010. Hill is an awful hitter, but most backup catchers earn their money defensively anyway. In 2010 though, Hill was awful defensively, posting a league average .992 Fld% with just an 18% CS% and 4 passed balls. Hill did have a .995 Fld% with a 40% CS% and just 2 passed balls in 2009, but that doesn't take away from how awful Hill was defensively in '10. Hill better rebound defensively, because his offense certainly won't (he has a career .215 BA in 256 career major league games). Hill needs a rebound defensively just to be an average big league backup, considering how bad of a hitter he is. Koyie Hill can give Soto an off-day every week or two, but if Soto gets hurt and he's forced to step in as the starter, the Cubs are in deep trouble.
First base:
From 2007 to 2010 with the Tampa Bay Rays, Carlos Pena's BA went down from .282 in '07 all the way down to .196 in '10. Can he rebound offensively with the Cubs? Pena, who will turn 33 in May, hit just .196 in '10 with 18 doubles, 28 homers, 84 RBI, and a .325 OBP in 144 games. Why did he hit just .196? He had just a .222 BAbip. But why did he have just a .222 BAbip? Turns out that Pena had the same problem in '10 that Soto had in '10- trading some hard hits for more contact. From 2007 to 2009, Pena had a 22% LD% and just a 49% IP%. In 2010, he had just a 17% LD%, but a 52% IP%. It's sort of ironic that Pena had his best IP% in a full season since 2004 with the Tigers in the year in which he posted the worse BA of his career. Pena had a 44.9% GB% in 2010. He had just a 29.0% GB% in 2009. Will Pena be able to get his BA back to at least back to the .227 BA that he had in '09 this season? If he wants to be a good hitter again, Pena has to hit more line drives. When he's at the plate, he can't worry about contact- he has to wait for his pitch and hit it well when he gets it. Everybody hates strikeouts, but Cubs fans while have to deal with Pena striking out around 160 times in 2011. If Pena can just get back to his approach from '07 to '09, he'll go down as a great signing for the Cubs. (In case you were wondering, Pena's 18.1% HR/FB in '10 was a bit below his 20.0% HR/FB the past 3 seasons, but Pena will definitely rebound in that regard. Defensively, it's hard to complain about Pena. He posted an above average .995 Fld% in '10 with above-average range (8.58 range factor per game [RF/G] compared to the league average of 7.41), but somehow he had a -2.5 UZR (don't ask me to explain ultimate zone rating). No matter what UZR says, it's hard to consider Pena a below-average defender. But, as long as Pena rebounds offensively, it doesn't matter too much exactly how good he does defensively. Carlos Pena needs to get back to hitting the ball hard in 2010, even if it costs him some amount of contact, and if he does, he'll end up being a great signing for the Cubs.
Pena will be backed up by the Cubs' primary infield backup, Jeff Baker, who is a natural second baseman, but who has experience at all 4 corner positions (although he'll primarily play just second base, first base, and third base). Baker, who will turn 30 in June, hit .272 in '10 with 13 doubles, 4 homers, 21 RBI, and a .326 OBP in 79 games. He had a .340 BAbip, but his career BAbip is .334, so it really wasn't that high (he has a 20% career LD%). Defensively, Baker posted just a .903 Fld% at third base, but was perfect in 26 games at second base while showing outstanding range (5.47 RF/9 compared to the 4.78 league average at second base), and he was also perfect in 4 games at first base and 4 in the outfield. For his career, Baker has a great .989 Fld% at second base with great range, a .939 Fld% at third base with above-average range, a .990 Fld% at first base with good range, and a .979 Fld% in 37 games in the outfield between left field and right field, showing poor range. Baker is a decent hitter, and he's very good defensively at second while being serviceable at the 4 corner positions. Jeff Baker is a good backup for the Cubs.
Second base:
25 year old Blake DeWitt, acquired from the Dodgers at the trade deadline in the Ted Lilly deal, hit .261 between the Dodgers and Cubs in '10 with 24 doubles, 5 homers, 52 RBI, 5 triples, and a .336 OBP in 135 games. DeWitt had a .313 BAbip, so he wasn't very lucky, but still, he hit just .261 with no other significant talents. He did have a 21% LD% and a 71% IP%, but no matter how many positive stats I say, DeWitt still hit .261. The one piece of goods news for the Cubs was that DeWitt had just a 3.2% HR/FB in 2010. When he had a closer-to-average 6.4 HR/FB in 2008, he hit 9 homers. DeWitt is not a good player, but maybe he would have at least some amount of value if he could hit double-digit homers. Defensively, DeWitt posted a below-average .979 Fld% at second base, although he did show slightly above-average range (4.83 RF/9 compared to the league average of 4.78). DeWitt was once an outstanding third baseman for the Dodgers, posting a great .969 Fld% at third base in 2008 (compared to the league average of .955) with a 3.10 RF/9 that was tops among NL third basemen. But, with Aramis Ramirez entrenched at third, DeWitt is stuck at second. DeWitt will be backed up by Jeff Baker, who could possibly take away significant playing time from DeWitt if his struggles continue. Blake DeWitt is a decent player at best for the Cubs.
Third base:
Aramis Ramirez used to be when of the best players in baseball. In 2006, Ramirez had arguably the best season of his career, hitting .291 with 38 doubles, a career-high 38 homers, a career-high 119 RBI, 93 runs, and a .352 OBP in 157 games. After the season, the Cubs re-signed Ramirez to a 5 year, 72 million dollar contract with a 16 million option for the 6th year. The first couple of seasons in the contract went well, with Ramirez hitting .310 with 26 homers and 101 RBI in '07, and .289 with 27 homers and 111 RBI in '08. But in '09, everything went wrong for Ramirez. He missed 11 games early in the season with a couple of minor injuries, but on May 9th, he suffered a dislocated left shoulder that sidelined him until July 6th. Ramirez also missed 14 days the rest of the year with various other injuries. Ramirez appeared in just 82 games, hitting .317 with 15 homers and 65 RBI. At least when he was healthy, he did well. But in 2010, while Ramirez was mostly healthy, the level of performance was just not there. Ramirez hit .241 with 21 doubles, 25 homers, 83 RBI, and just a .294 OBP in 124 games. Injuries have made Ramirez into a shadow over his former self. Ramirez had just a .245 BAbip in '10, compared to his .287 career BAbip. His low BAbip was because of just a 16% LD%, the lowest of his career. And unlike Soto and Pena, it didn't come with an increase in IP%. He had a 70% IP%, the third-lowest of his career. His career IP% is 73% and he had a 75% IP%. In my opinion and in the opinion of many others, there's no way Ramirez ever gets back to being a star. If everything goes right in 2011, maybe Ramirez will stay healthy and hit .280 with 25 homers and drive in 100 runs. But, chances are he'll only play in around 100 games hit around .250, hit maybe 17 homers and drive in 70 runs. Maybe even that's optimistic. Defensively, Ramirez posted just a .939 Fld% at third base in '10 with just a 2.21 RF/G compared to the league average of 2.54. Ramirez has always been a below-average defender (.948 career Fld%, .251 RF/G), but in 2010, he took that to new levels. Ramirez will be backed up by Baker. 2011 is Ramirez's contract year. It's unfortunate that in all likelihood, Ramirez will be fighting through an injury-riddled season and be signing a minor league contract with someone next offseason even though he'll be just 33 years old.
Shortstop:
Young shortstop Starlin Castro had a very good rookie year in '10, hitting .300 with 31 doubles, 3 homers, 41 RBI, 5 triples, 10 stolen bases, and a .347 OBP in 125 games. Castro, who will turn 21 on March 24th, was the the youngest player in the NL but still ranked 10th in the league in BA. Castro had a .346 BAbip in '10, but that was because of a 20% LD% and a great 78% IP%. Wait a second- he had a 51.3% GB%. How did he manage to hit .300 with such a high ground ball rate? Was he just really lucky in '10? Well, although you may not have noticed it because of Castro's low amount of stolen bases, but he's very fast. He stole 28 bases in his only full minor league season. Castro was among the league leaders in the NL with 25 infield hits. As long as Castro can keep beating out those infield hits, he'll be fine. Defensively however, Castro needs work. He posted just a .950 Fld% at SS compared to the league average of .972, although he did post slightly above-average range (4.33 RF/G compared to the league average of 4.31). He made the second-most errors in the NL (behind Nats shortstop Ian Desmond). The Cubs have to hope that Castro's poor range in 2010 was just an aberration. After all, he did have a 4.74 RF/G at shortstop in the minors. Hopefully the Cubs coaching staff can fix Castro's defensive problems. Castro is a good player overall for the Cubs, but while he looks to improve offensively in 2011, his poor defense could hold him back.
Castro will be backed up by Darwin Barney. Barney, a 25 year old middle infielder, hit .241 in 30 games for the Cubs with 4 doubles, no homers, 2 RBI, and a .294 OBP. Barney posted a .976 Fld% between shortstop, second base, and third base, with both of his errors coming at second base. At Triple-A Iowa, Barney hit .299 with 24 doubles, 2 homers, 49 RBI, 4 triples, 72 runs, 11 stolen bases, and a .333 OBP in 114 games. He posted a .970 Fld% at shortstop in the minors (exactly the league average). Barney posted just a 4.14 RF/G compared to the 4.27 RF/G that was the NL's league average at shortstop. You have to hope that his poor range at second was somewhat of a fluke, especially considering he owns a 4.32 RF/G in the minors. Barney was perfect in 2 games at second base. Darwin Barney doesn't seem like a great backup, considering his not a great hitter and he's only decent defensively, but at least he's a better defensive shortstop than Baker, and he'll be good enough as a backup for the Cubs.
Left field:
Alfonso Soriano, now 35 years old, had a bounce-back year of sorts in '10, hitting .258 with 40 doubles (his most since 2007), 24 homers, 79 RBI, and a .322 OBP in 147 games (his most since 2006). Soriano was healthy in 2011, missing just 6 games due to injury, and it paid off. It's unfortunate for him that he's nothing compared to the player he used to be. Remember when Soriano used to be a player that had a chance to go 40-40 every single year? Soriano went 39-41 in 2002, 38-35 in 2003, 36-30 in 2005, and then finally 46-41 in 2006. He was just 24-5 in 2010. Soriano had a .295 BAbip with an 18%, so there's no reason to think his BA will ever climb back up to his .277 career average again. Soriano had a 10.4% HR/FB in '10, a bit short of his 11.7% career HR/FB, so maybe Soriano's best-case scenario in 2011 has him hitting 30 homers. Soriano is still a decent hitter, but he won't be anywhere near the player he's supposed to be based on his contract (which still has 4 years and 72 million dollars remaining). Defensively, Soriano was pretty awful, posting just a .968 Fld% compared to the league average of .985 for left fielders, with poor range (1.70 RF/9 ocmpared to the league average of 2.17). It's sad that Alfonso Soriano, who used to be one of the best players in baseball, is now a decent player at best.
Soriano will be backed up by Tyler Colvin and either Reed Johnson or Fernando Perez, who are competing for the Cubs 5th outfielder job. Colvin, OK now after the broken bat incident, had a nice rookie season, hitting .254 with 18 doubles, 20 homers, 56 RBI, 5 triples, 6 stolen bases, and a .316 OBP in 135 games. The 26 year old outfielder had a .296 BAbip in '10 despite a 17% LD% and a 61% IP%, so he may never hit too much better than he did in '10. He also had an astronomical 15.6% HR/FB, so he might have hit homers at a lesser rate in coming years (not that he won't ever hit 20 homers- he received just 394 plate appearances in 2010). It's clear that Colvin just isn't that good of a player. Defensively, Colvin is pretty awful, considering he posted a .967 Fld% between all 3 outfield positions in '10 with poor range in left field and center field. He posted just a .952 Fld% in right field. Colvin seems like he'll be best suited in a backup role unless he makes huge improvements both offensively and defensively. Johnson, back with the Cubs after playing for the LA Dodgers in 2010, hit .262 in '10 with 11 doubles, 2 homers, 15 RBI, and a .291 OBP in 102 games. He did miss most of August with back spasms. He was actually perfect defensively in the outfield in '10 and even showed above-average range in left field. He's a solid backup as long as he stays healthy. Perez, acquired in the Matt Garza trade, spent all of 2010 at the Rays' Triple-A Durham, hitting just .223 with 11 doubles, 4 homers, 32 RBI, 24 stolen bases, and a .280 OBP in 116 games. Perez, who will turn 28 in April, hit .288 with 43 stolen bases at Durham in 2008, but then missed almost all of '09 after undergoing surgery for a dislocated wrist, playing in just 17 games in the minors and 18 in the majors. Maybe he was still suffering after-effects in '10.That must be the reason, especially considering Perez had a .287 BAbip. Defensively, Perez owns a .978 career Fld% in the outfield overall with solid range, so he's a decent player. In 37 career major league games (coming '07 and '08), he has not made a single error, so that's a good sign. Nevertheless, it doesn't appear that Perez is better than Johnson at all, so he'll probably be stuck in the minors to begin the year. The Cubs have solid depth behind Soriano.
Centerfield:
After signing with the Cubs in '10 after a career-year with the Texas Rangers, there was certainly some amount of doubt that Marlon Byrd would keep up his solid production, especially because not only was he leaving Arlington, but also he was turning 32. While maybe he didn't have as good year overall in '10, he certainly lived up to the billing, hitting .293 with 39 doubles, 12 homers, 66 RBI, 84 runs, and a .346 OBP in 152 games. Byrd had a .335 BAbip to help bring his BA up to .293 from .283 in '10. His LD% remained the same at 19% from '09 to '10, but the reason his BAbip went up from .308 to .335 was because his IF/FB (percentage of fly balls in the infield [i.e. percentage of fly balls that were popups]) shot down from 13% to 5%. Byrd improved his IP% from 73% in '09 to 75% in '10. Basically what happened was that Byrd made more contact in '10 than in '09 and more solid contact because although his LD% didn't increase, his IF/FB went down quite a bit. But, that increase in contact caused Byrd's HR/FB to go down from 8.5% to 5.6% from '09 to '10. That's why he went from 20 homers in '09 to 12 homers in '10. Still, Byrd is definitely a solid offensive player. Byrd is more well known for his stellar defense, and 2010 was no difference as he posted an above-average .992 Fld% in centerfield with above average range (2.69 RF/9 compared to the league average of 2.59). He also had 6 outfield assists.Byrd is a very good player on both sides of the ball for the Cubs. Byrd will be backed up by Johnson or Perez. Marlon Byrd's stellar play has made the Cubs look good for signing him to a 3-year contract.
Right field:
2011 is the last year of Kosuke Fukudome's contract. He better produce offensively if he wants to stay in the US. Fukudome, who will turn 34 in April, hit .263 in '10 with 20 doubles, 13 homers, just 44 RBI, and a .371 OBP in 130 games. How he couldn't manage to drive in 50 runs is beyond me. He actually had his worst BAbip in the States, just .287, but still posted his best BA. His 17% LD% was also his lowest in the US, and his 11% IF/FB was the highest, so pretty much what happened was everything evened out for Fukudome and he proved to be a decent player. However, his 9.6% HR/FB was easily the highest of his career. Fukudome proved in '10 that he's at least an average major leaguer offensively. Defensively, Fukudome was rock-solid, posting a significantly above-average .995 Fld% with average range (2.14 RF/9 compared to the league average of 2.17). He's a good player. He'll be backed up by Colvin and Johnson or Perez. Fukudome needs one more solid season to prove that he belongs on a major league team (if he doesn't want to return to Japan). He should be able manage that in 2011.
Starting rotation:
Ryan Dempster, who will turn 34 in May, didn't do anything besides put up another solid season in 2010, going 15-12 with a 3.85 ERA and 208 K's compared to 86 walks allowed in 34 starts and 215.1 IP. He allowed 198 hits, 8.3 per 9 innings, and 25 homers, a 1.0 HR/9. Dempster was actually pretty unlucky in 2011, allowing a .298 BAbip despite just a 14% LD%. He also allowed a good 47.4% GB%. Dempster only real problem, homers allowed (which led to his 3.99 FIP [fielding independent equivalent of ERA]), was actually a fluke, considering he allowed a 9.2% HR/FB compared to his career HR/FB to 7.8%. Dempster is really a good pitcher. Dempster is even a solid hitting pitcher. He did hit just .136 with 2 RBI, but he had 16 sac bunts. Ryan Dempster is a solid ace and deserves to start Opening Day for the Cubs.
Lining up as the Cubs' second starter in the rotation is 27 year old right-hander Matt Garza, acquired this offseason in the big trade with the Rays. Garza went 15-10 in '10 with a 3.91 ERA and 150 K's compared to 63 walks in 32 starts, 1 relief appearances and 204.2 IP. Garza alllowed 193 hits, an 8.5 H/9, and 28 homers, a bad 1.2 HR/9. It certainly wasn't a great performance by Garza, but it was his second-best ERA for a full season behind his 3.70 ERA in 2008. However, Garza posted his worst GB% in a season since 2006 (35.8%), and his worse FIP since '06 as well (4.42). Garza allowed a .273, certainly below the league average, but exactly at his average for the past 3 seasons. Could it be that Garza was just really lucky with the Rays? Garza allowed that .273 BAbip despite allowing a 20% LD%, a 69% IP%, and a 39% GB%. But, he did have an above-average 16% IF/FB. He also allowed just a 7.9% HR/FB during that time period. Also, you have to factor in that Garza is going from Tropicana Park, a pitcher's ballpark to Wrigley Field, which we all know is a hitter's park. It would seem that in switching between the two ballparks and factoring how, his ERA is going to start looking a lot more like his FIP's have been to the past 3 years (4.32). But, that would be if his BAbip actually returns to neutral. Considering Garza has posted a BAbip in the .270's for three consecutive years, will he be putting up those type of BAbip's for the foreseeable future? He better, or he'll be a huge disappointment for the Cubs.
Carlos Zambrano had a bizarre season in '10. He started the season in the rotation as the Cubs' ace, but after 4 starts in which he posted a 7.45 ERA, he was relegated to the bullpen. Zambrano posted a 4.15 ERA and 4 holds in 13 relief appearances between late April and late May. Zambrano then posted a 5.01 ERA in 5 starts after he returned to the rotation in June, but after that sub-par performance, the Cubs sent him down to the minor leagues for 4 relief appearances. But after he came back, he finally was himself again, he posted a 4.91 ERA in 3 relief appearances (primarily because he allowed a .500 BAbip) before he returned to the Cubs rotation once again. In 11 starts between August and September, going 8-0 with just a 1.41 ERA. At the end of it all, Zambrano actually had a good year, going 11-6 with a 3.33 ERA (his lowest since 2005), 117 K's, 69 walks, and 4 holds in 20 starts and 16 relief appearances. He allowed 119 hits, an 8.3 H/9, and just 7 homers, a 0.5 HR/9. He had a .309 BAbip, primarily because he allowed a 21% LD%, but he did have a 64% IP% and a 43.6% GB%. As long as he can stay consistently good, Zambrano will rise up to be the Cubs' ace once again. Considering that he's turning 30 in June and he has a vesting option in his contract if he finishes 1st or 2nd in the Cy Young voting this year, it would certainly be in his best interests and obviously the Cubs' if he can get back to being that great albeit crazy pitcher we all know him as. Good thing Zambrano is no slouch with the bat. Zambrano had another great hitting year for a pitcher in '10, hitting .231 with 1 homer, 6 RBI, and 2 sac bunts. It was a far cry from his two consecutive Silver Slugger seasons in '08 and '09 (in which he hit 4 homers each year), but it was still a good season for Zambrano. Carlos Zambrano is primed for a resurgence in 2011.
28 year old righty Randy Wells had a bit of a sophomore slump in 2010, but he still had a decent year, going just 8-14, but with a 4.26 ERA and 144 K's compared to 63 walks in 32 starts and 194.1 IP. He allowed 209 hits, over a hit per inning at 9.7 per 9, and 19 homers, a decent ratio of 0.9 per 9. Again, those are decent stats, but Wells went 12-10 with a 3.05 ERA, 104 K's, 46 walks, 165 hits allowed (9.0 H/9), and 14 homers allowed (0.8 HR/9) in 27 starts and 165.1 IP in his rookie year of 2009. What happened? Well, Wells allowed a .315 BAbip compared to a .292 BAbip his rookie year. His LD% climbed from 17% to 19%, but that should have been mostly canceled out because Wells IP% against him fell from 75% to 72%. His GB% also remained around the same, falling slightly from 47.9% to 46.9%. So what happened? His IF/FB and DP% (percentage of double plays out of opportunities) fell from 13% and 16% respectively to 9% and 7%. In addition, his LOB% dropped. LOB%, strand rate of base runners allowed, fell from 76.0% to 72.0%. When combine all those with Wells increase in HR/FB from 5.9% to 6.5%, that's why his ERA went up significantly. When everything evens out, hopefully Wells can get his ERA at least under 4.00 again. With the bat, Wells is a halfway-decent hitting pitcher, considering he hit .173 in '10 with 3 RBI and 9 sac bunts. Randy Wells is a pretty good pitcher for the Cubs.
Carlos Silva and Andrew Cashner are competing for the 5th slot in the Cubs rotation.
Silva had a decent year in 2010 despite missing almost all of August with cardiac ablation surgery, going 10-6 for the Cubs with 80 K's (a career high 6.4 K/9), and just 24 walks in 21 starts and 113 IP. He allowed 120 hits, a 9.6 H/9, and 11 homers, a 0.9 HR/9. Silva, who will turn 31 in late April did allow a .309 BAbip despite an 18% LD% and a 48.2% GB%. However, Silva did allow a 74% IP%. One potential problem with Silva going forward is HR/FB- he's bound to allow a few more homers in 2011 considering he allowed a 6.5% HR/FB in '10. Still, Silva is a decent pitcher overall and a perfectly fine 5th starter. But, what's worrying the Cubs and their fans has been Silva's performance so far this spring. Silva has an awful 15.88 ERA in 11.1 spring training innings, allowing 4 home runs. That's what has given Andrew Cashner an opportunity.
Cashner, a 24 year old right-hander, began 2010 so well between Double-A Tennessee and Triple-A Iowa, going 6-1 with a 2.05 ERA in 9 starts and 2 relief appearances that he was quickly promoted to the major league club. With the Cubs, Cashner went 2-6 with a 4.80 ERA, 50 K's, 30 walks, and 16 holds in 53 relief appearances and 54.1 IP. Other than a stretch from July 27th to August 23rd in which Cashner was the unluckiest pitcher in baseball, allowing a .515 BAbip, Cashner did well, posting a 2.42 ERA with a .243 BAbip before that terrible stretch and a 1.53 ERA with a .279 BAbip after it. If he remains in the bullpen in 2011, Cashner should be able to piece it all together and have a very good season. But how would Cashner do in the rotation? In his minor league career, Cashner appeared in 43 games, 39 of which were starts, and he went 10-7 with a 2.79 ERA, 153 K's, 80 walks, 139 hits allowed (7.1 H/9), and 3 homers (a minuscule 0.2 HR/9) in 177.1 IP. He did have a .271 BAbip (there's no website that lists how many sac flies Cashner allowed in the minors, so that .271 number could be a few points off), so he was somewhat lucky. But at Double-A, where Cashner spent the most time, he had a 3.15 ERA, although he did have a .253 BAbip. Looking at that, Cashner maybe would have a high-3.00's ERA if he was starter in the majors (based on his BAbip evening out and the level switch). That would be better than Silva. Cashner is pitching to a High-3.00's ERA so far in spring training, posting a 3.97 ERA in 11.1 IP. Cashner will be given a long look for the 5th starter job, and if he does win the job, Silva will surely be traded. If Silva is given the nod, Cashner will have a spot in the bullpen.
Bullpen:
Kerry Wood always wanted to come back. The 33 year old right-hander turn down more lucrative offers from several teams to come back to the Cubs for the low price of just 1.5 million dollars on a 1-year contract. Sounds like a bit of a bargain for the Cubs. Wood began 2010 the Indians, but during camp, he suffered a shoulder strain and was out until May. From May until mid-July, Wood really struggled, appearing in 23 games saving 8 of 11 games, and posting a 6.30 ERA before he re-aggravated his shoulder strain and was put on the DL again. Wood didn't go off the DL until July 31st, when he was traded to the Yankees for two players to be named later. Once he arrived in New York, everything changed. Wood was healthy and was a dominant force in the Yankee bullpen, going 2-0 with 9 holds and just a 0.69 ERA in 24 relief appearances. Kerry Wood, the dominant pitcher, was back, albeit as a setup man. He'll play the same role in 2011, setting up Carlos Marmol. Overall in 2010, Wood went 3-4 with a 3.13 ERA, 49 K's, 29 walks, 35 hits allowed (6.8 H/9), 4 homers allowed (0.8 HR/.9), 10 holds, and 8 saves in 47 relief appearances and 46 IP. How will he do in 2011? Overall in 2010, batters had a .272 BAbip against Wood. He allowed a league average 19% LD% and a below-average 39% GB%, but the reason that Wood was so good was that he allowed just a 57% IP%. That 57% IP% goes right along with his 56% career IP%. That's one of the reasons why Wood has been a great pitcher in his career, at least for short stretches (with another reason being his 10.4 career K/9). Wood was somewhat lucky another regard in '10- HR/FB. He had a 6.3% HR/FB in '10 compared to his 8.6% career HR/FB. But the real potential problem for Wood in 2011 revolves around his LOB%. Wood allowed an extremely high 5.7 BB/9 in '10. How did he managed a low-3.00's ERA overall in '10 despite that high walk rate? An 81.4% LOB%. Wood's career LOB% is 76.3%. Despite all this, when everything evens out, Wood could have as good a year or better in 2011 when everything evens out. Wood was not anywhere near as bad as his stint in Cleveland in 2010 or as good as his stint with the Yankees. He obviously won't put up an ERA under 2.00 or anything, but he could certainly put up an ERA under 3.00. The worst-case scenario (unless he gets hurt) is Wood putting up his 3.45 career ERA as a reliever. While the Cubs would obviously want Wood to have a great year, whether he has an ERA under 3.00 or over 3.40, he'll be an effective setup man to help bridge the gap between the starters and Carlos Marmol. Kerry Wood certainly won't put up the 0.69 ERA that he had with the Yankees last season in 2011, but as long as he stays healthy, he'll be a good reliever for the Cubs.
28 year old lefty Sean Marshall had an outstanding year for the Cubs in 2010, going 7-5 with a 2.65 ERA, 90 K's, just 25 walks, 58 hits allowed (7.0 H/9), 3 homers allowed (0.4 HR/9), 22 holds, and 1 save in 80 relief appearances and 74.2 IP. Marshall did this all while allowing a .297 BAbip. Marshall actually allowed a 23% LD%, but he had a great 52.2% GB% and he allowed a good 60% IP%. He also allowed a 74.3% LOB% that wasn't too far off from Marshall's career average of 72.1%. But, Marshall was extremely lucky in terms of HR/FB. He allowed just a 3.6% HR/FB compared to his 8.6% career HR/FB. He also allowed just a 4.9% XBH% (extra base hit percentage among batters faced) compared to the league average of 7.9% and his career average of 7.5%. When everything evens out, Marshall will certainly have a higher ERA, probably over 3.00. Even so, he's a good reliever, but he won't be one of the best lefty relievers in the majors in '10. Sean Marshall is due for a bit of a let-down in 2011, but he'll still be a good reliever for the Cubs.
I was at Thomas Diamond's major league debut this past season, an August 3rd start at Wrigley Field against the Milwaukee Brewers. Diamond, who will turn 28 in April, had a decent debut, allowing 3 runs on 7 hits in 6 innings, striking out 10 and walking 3 in a 4-3 loss to the Brewers. But, in his next 2 starts, Diamond allowed 9 combined earned runs in 7 combined innings. Those were his final starts of the year. Diamond was then relegated to the bullpen, where he did do better, but better is a comparative word. He went 1-0 with a 5.63 ERA and no holds. Is there any hope for Diamond in 2011? Well, Diamond had a .378 BAbip in '10, but he did allow an awful 25% LD%. According to that, it would appear the Diamond is just destined to be an awful reliever. However, Diamond allowed just a 54% IP%, a 65.2% LOB%, and a 9.4% HR/FB. When those all even out, hopefully Diamond will at least be a decent reliever. The best-case scenario for Diamond in 2011 is probably his 2009 season in the minors at Double-A Frisco in the Texas Rangers organization. At Frisco in '09, Diamond went 1-3 with a 3.63 ERA, 50 K's, 37 walks, 43 hits allowed (8.7 H/9), 3 homers allowed (0.6 HR/9), and 1 save (I can't find how many holds he had) in 32 relief appearances and 44.2 IP. Hopefully his control would be better though if he did put up similar numbers to that in 2011- he had an awful 7.5 BB/9. In '08 at Frisco, Diamond had a 72.3% LOB% and a 4.52 FIP. You have to think Diamond will be much better in 2011, giving the Cubs some decent long-relief innings, putting up an ERA in the low-4.00's or high-3.00's. Thomas Diamond should be a decent long reliever for the Cubs in 2011.
There are 5 relievers competing for the final two spots on the Cubs' pitching staff: Marcos Mateo, Jim Russell, Scott Maine, Jeff Samardzija, and Casey Coleman.
Mateo, who will turn 27 in April, had a good season in the minors in '10, going 0-1 with a 3.15 ERA, 45 K's, just 7 walks, 35 hits allowed (9.2 H/9), 2 homers allowed (0.5 HR/9), and 4 saves in 25 relief appearances, 1 of which was at Rookie ball, 16 of which were at Double-A Tennessee, and 8 of which were at Triple-A Iowa, along with 1 start at Tennessee. Mateo was promoted to the majors in August, and it did not go well. He went 0-1 with a 5.82 ERA, 26 K's, 9 walks, 20 hits allowed (8.3 H/9), 6 homers allowed (2.5 HR/9) and 1 hold in 21 relief appearances and 21.2 IP. He actually allowed just a .275 BAbip despite a 21% LD%. But that was counteracted by a 55% IP%. Really, the reason Mateo struggled was homers allowed, but of course he was unlucky in allowing 2.5 homers per 9 innings. He allowed an unbelievable 17.6% HR/FB. Wow. He also allowed a 9.7% XBH%. When everything evens out, Mateo should be fine and be able to post a low-3.00's ERA at the major league level. In addition to what I'm saying, Mateo has a 1.80 ERA in 5 spring training relief appearances and 5 IP, so he has a very strong case for making the roster. Marcos Mateo has the potential to be a pretty good reliever for the Cubs if he makes the team.
Russell spent almost all of 2010 on the big league roster for the Cubs, and it did not go well. The 25 year old lefty went 1-1 in '10 with a 4.96 ERA, 42 K's, 11 walks, 55 hits allowed (10.1 H/9), 11 homers allowed (2.0 HR/9), and 6 holds in 57 relief appearances and 49 IP. Russell allowed a .297 BAbip, allowing a 19% LD% and a 68% IP%, but he was unlucky in terms of LOB% and HR/FB. Russell had just a 60.4% LOB% and a 11.8% HR/FB. When everything evens out, Russell should be much better in 2011. Unfortunately for Russell, he's getting killed so far in spring training, considering he has a 7.56 ERA in 3 relief appearances and 1 start. His hopes for the Cubs roster are hanging by a thread. He better start improving a lot in the latter part of spring training if he wants to make the team and have a chance to atone for his bad 2010. But even if he doesn't make the team out of spring training, we will see him in the majors at some point in 2011. Russell might be bound to rebound in 2011 when his luck evens out, but because of his awful performance so far this spring, he may not get the chance, at least to begin the year.
Another lefty, 26 year old Scott Maine, had a very nice season in the minors in 2011, going 4-2 with a 3.14 ERA, 62 K's, 25 K's, 45 hits allowed (7.1 H/9), 5 homers allowed (0.8 HR/9), and 10 saves in 45 relief appearances and 57.1 IP. He was then promoted to the majors, and he continued to pitch well, going 0-0 with a 2.08 ERA, 11 K's, 5 walks, 9 hits allowed (6.2 H/9), 1 homer allowed (0.7 HR/9), and 3 holds in 13 relief appearances and 13 IP. He didn't appear in too many pressure situations, having just a .5 aLI, but he actually allowed a .000 BA against him in the at-bats against him in high leverage and medium leverage situations. Overall in the majors in '10, Maine allowed just a .216 BAbip, even though he allowed an 18% LD% and a 69% IP%. But, Maine allowed a great 55.3% GB%. Maine was lucky in terms of BAbip, but not exceedingly lucky. Maine was also lucky in terms of LOB%, having a pretty high 79.4% LOB%. His HR/FB was around neutral at 6.7%. When everything evens out, Maine will certainly have a higher ERA in '10, but he should still post an ERA under 3.00 (consider that his ERA would have to go up .92 to get to 3.00). Maine has allowed a 6.00 ERA in 6 relief appearances and 6 IP, but he still has a good chance of making the Cubs' roster. Scott Maine has a chance to be a good reliever for the Cubs in 2011 if he can make the team.
Samardzija, the 26 year old right-hander and ex. Notre Dame wide receiver, had a very disappointing season in '10. At Triple-A Iowa, Samardzija was just decent, going 11-3 with a 4.37 ERA, 102 K's, 67 walks, 86 hits allowed (7.0 H/9), and 9 homers allowed (0.7 HR/9) in 20 starts, 15 relief appearances, and 111.1 IP. In 7 major league games, 3 of which were starts, Samardzija was terrible, posting an 8.38 ERA, and walking 20 while striking out just 9. Samardzija was a promising young reliever after posting a 2.28 ERA in 26 major league relief appearances in '08, but since then, Samardzija has a 7.83 ERA in 22 relief appearances and 5 starts in the majors. What happened? While his BAbip, LD%, and IP% have varied, his HR/FB, LOB%, and GB% have gone in the wrong directions. His HR/FB was actually 0.0 in '08, but has been 10.9% since then. His LOB% was 70% in '08, but went down to 63.2% in '09 and just 56.2% in '10. His GB% went down from 45.7% to 41.2% to just 30.7% in '10. These trends are certainly not encouraging. Will Samardzija ever be an effective big league reliever? The Cubs certainly hope so, but it's certainly no sure thing. Samardzija has a 6.43 ERA in 7 spring training relief appearances and 7 IP, so it's unlikely that he'll make the Cubs out of spring training. He better get back on track at Triple-A Iowa in '11. Jeff Samardzija is unlikely to help the Cubs out of the bullpen in 2011.
Coleman, a 23 year old righty, had a pretty good season as as starter at High-A Iowa in '10, going 10-7 with a 4.07 ERA, 59 K's, and 35 walks in 20 starts and 117.1 IP. He allowed 106 hits, an 8.1 H/9, and 10 homers, a 0.8 HR/9. Coleman's problem is that he doesn't strike anybody out. He had just a 4.5 K/9 in 2010 and owns just a 5.2 K/9 for his career. Coleman also appeared in 12 major league games, 8 of which were starting, going 4-2 with a 4.11 ERA, 27 K's, and 25 walks in 57 IP. He actually had a 3.33 ERA as a starter compared to an 8.64 ERA as a reliever, although is K/9 went up from 4.1 as a starter to 5.4 as a reliever. Coleman is a decent starter, but the Cubs don't have any room in their rotation for Coleman and he doesn't profile well in the bullpen. Coleman has a 6.43 ERA in 3 relief appearances and 7 IP so far in spring training. Casey Coleman is going to be a 5th starter for the Cubs or some other major league team some day, but that's probably not going to happen in 2011.
I would guess that Mateo and Main make the Cubs' bullpen out of spring training.
Closer:
28 year old hard-throwing right-hander Carlos Marmol had his first great season as a closer in '10, going 2-3 with a 2.55 ERA, 138 K's (an unbelievable 16.0 K/9), 52 walks (6.0 BB/9), 40 hits allowed (just a 4.6 H/9), just 1 homer allowed (0.1 HR/9), and 38 saves (5 blown saves) in 77 relief appearances and 77.2 IP. Is Marmol due for an encore in 2011? You would think that because Marmol allowed just a 4.6 H/9, he was extremely lucky in terms of BAbip. He was not at all, allowing a .293 BAbip, the highest of his career. Marmol did allow a league-average 19% LD%, but he allowed just a 40% IP% that easily canceled that out. Marmol was just plain incredible in terms of allowing so few hits. However, Marmol was lucky in allowing just 1 homer, having a 1.4% HR/FB. He also allowed just a 3.3% XBH%. But, Marmol wasn't necessarily that lucky. He had a 2.5% HR/FB and a 4.5% XBH% in 2009. Marmol just did not allow very much hard contact. Marmol might not be quite as good in 2011, but he should still have a great year and post an ERA under 2.90 once again, maybe even reaching 40 saves. Unless Marmol melts down and starts walking every single batter (like he did in 2009, allowing a 7.9 BB/9), Marmol will have another great year in 2011. Carlos Marmol is a great closer for the Cubs.
Overview:
The Cubs will be a good team in 2011. They have a good lineup, although their defense isn't great. The top three in their rotation are very good, and the back end is pretty good as well. Their bullpen is solid, with Marmol slamming the door. The Cubs are a good team, not a great team, but they still have a chance to win the NL Central or the NL Wild Card. Will they make the playoffs? Again, they have a chance, but it certainly won't be easy.
2010 Record: 75-87
Prediction: 87-75, 3rd in NL Central
The Cubs will make the playoffs if...Soriano and Ramirez show some flashes of their former glory and have greats years, Dempster has another very good year, Garza steps up for his new team, Zambrano is a dependable starter for the entire season, Wood has another very good year as a setup man, Marmol has an even better year as a closer.
Thursday, March 17, 2011
2011 MLB Preview: St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals were a big disappointment in '10, finishing second in the NL Central, 5 games back of the Reds, despite great years for Albert Pujols (as usual), Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, and Matt Holliday. Now, Wainwright is hurt and the Cardinals' playoff hopes are already hanging by a thread. With Albert Pujols not signing a contract extension before spring training, all the pressure is on the Cardinals to make the playoffs in 2011. Are they good enough to do so without Wainwright?
Catcher:
Yadier Molina is entering his 7th full season as the Cardinals' starting catcher. Yadier, the youngest of the catching Molina brothers at age 28, had a decent year offensively, hitting .262 with 19 doubles, 6 homers, 62 RBI (a career-high), 8 stolen bases, and a .329 OBP in 136 games. Molina has been a fairly consistent offensive player over the course of his career, hitting between 15 and 26 doubles, between 6 and 8 homers, and driving in between 40 and 62 runs each full season of his career. But, his BA has not been anywhere near as consistent varying from .216 to .304. What's the reason for that? When he hit .254 in '05 and .216 in '06, Molina had BAbip's of .254 and .226 respectively. When he hit .292 from '07 to '09, he had a .306 BAbip. He had a .281 BAbip in '10. Like post players, Molina's BA has been greatly effected by his BAbip. The big difference in BAbip for Molina was because of an improved line drive rate. He had just a 14% LD% in '05, but he improved that to 19% in '06, and 21% the past 4 seasons, including a career high 22% LD% in 2010. Molina was pretty unlucky to hit .262 in '10. But, where he wasn't unlucky was his .329 OBP, his lowest since '06. For his career, Molina has walked 49% of the time when a plate appearance reached a 3-ball count, but he walked just 44% of the time in those plate appearances in 2010. He put the ball in play on a 3-ball count 41% of the time, actually lower than his 42% IP% on 3-ball counts for his career, but he struck out 13% of his plate appearances with a 3-ball count, compared to 9% for his career. These numbers with 3-ball counts might be a complete fluke, so we'll just have to see what happens in 2011. No matter what problems Molina has offensively, his defense will still make his a good player. Molina was amazing again defensively in '10, posting a .995 Fld% and a ridiculous 49% CS% (still only the third-best of his career). He did allow 7 passed balls, but even so, he had a 1.7 dWAR (compared to his 1.4 oWAR), 4th in the NL to three outfielders, Michael Bourn, Angel Pagan, and Justin Upton. Molina won his 3rd consecutive Gold Glove at catcher in 2010. Molina is due for a rebound offensively, and his defense is just so great that it's hard not to peg him for a "great" overall year in 2011. The Cardinals have a great situation overall at catcher with Yadier Molina's outstanding defense and pretty good offense.
The Cardinals signed veteran catcher Gerald Laird this offseason to back up Molina. Laird, actually just 31 years old, (I honestly thought he was several years older, but considering he has a 23 year old brother, Brandon Laird, in the Yankees organization, I probably should have known that he wasn't that much older), hit .207 as the Tigers' backup catcher in '10 with 11 doubles, 5 homers, 25 RBI, and a .263 OBP in 89 games. He had a .243 BAbip despite a 20% LD%, so maybe his BA could improve significantly in 2011 (not that it would make a huge difference). Laird wasn't as awesome defensively in '10 as he was in '09 (when he posted a .997 Fld% and a 42% CS%), but he still posted a .991 Fld% and a 34% CS%. The Cardinals won't lose too much defensively when Laird subs in for Molina. Laird is a fine backup to Molina.
First base:
No matter what anybody says, Albert Pujols is a ridiculous player. In 2010, Pujols posted his lower oWAR (7.2) since 2007, yet he still hit .312 with 39 doubles, 42 homers, 118 RBI, 115 runs, 183 hits, 14 stolen bases, and a .414 OBP in 159 games. The 115 runs, 42 homers, and 118 RBI all led the NL, and he also led the lead with 38 intentional walks. Add in that Pujols walked 103 times while striking out 76 times. Even when he wasn't being intentionally walked 40 times a year, Pujols still didn't strike out more times than he walked- over the course of his minor league career, Pujols struck out more than he walked just 1 time, his rookie season of 2001. He actually had 'just' a .297 BAbip in '10, compared to his .314 career BAbip. He posted his regular 21% LD% and a 15.6 HR/FB that was pretty much his career average of 15.7% as well. Pujols is just such a consistent player. There's no reason to think he won't continue his consistency in 2011.Defensively however, Pujols posted a -0.2 dWAR, second lowest of his career. I can't really understand why (he had a .998 Fld% and ridiculously above-average range, posting 10.53 RF/9 and a 10.29 RF/G compared to the league averages of 6.52 and 6.37 respectively), but he somehow posted just a 1.5 UZR (Pujols posted a 24.7 UZR in 2007, just as a means of comparison). Even if he was actually sub-par defensively, Pujols is obviously still a amazing player. There's just no comparison between him and any other player to him offensively. Albert Pujols is still an amazing player for the Cardinals.
Pujols has averaged 146 games per season in his career, so obviously, the Cardinals don't have a true first base backup. On those couple days this season in which Pujols needs a day off, or if and when he gets hurt (he has been dealing with elbow problems), he will be backed up by either Lance Berkman or Allen Craig if he makes the team. I'll address Berkman when I talk about right field. Craig, who has an opportunity to make the team as a backup at all four corner positions, is a 26 year old utility player who was primarily a third baseman and left fielder in the minors, but did play 93 games at first base, posting a .994 Fld%. Craig hit .320 in the minors in '10 with 24 doubles, 14 homers, 81 RBI, and a .389 OBP in just 83 minor league games. He posted a .986 Fld% in left field, a .990 Fld% at first base, and just an .800 Fld% in 6 games in left field. In the majors, Craig hit .246 (.282 BAbip) with 7 doubles, 4 homers, 18 RBI, and a .298 OBP in 44 games, posting a perfect 1.000 Fld% in 30 games in right field (with below-average range), 5 games in left field, and 5 games in right field, but he posted a .000 Fld% in 2 games in third base, making an error on his only fielding chance. (He also played one game at second base, but he didn't have a single ball hit to him.) Those stats mean almost nothing; we'll have to see how Craig does in a full season as a backup. Craig has hit .322 the last two seasons at Triple-A (although he did have a .351 BAbip), so you would think that either the Cardinals promote him to the majors now, or maybe give him one more year at Triple-A so he could possibly take over for Pujols at first base in 2012. Maybe the Cardinals should keep Craig in the minors for most of 2011, considering they have Nick Punto, when healthy, to back up David Freese at 3rd base, and Jon Jay to be the outfield backup. Craig will probably make the team anyway, if only because the Cardinals have no real 5th outfielder. The Cardinals have depth behind Pujols if they ever need to use it.
Second base:
31 year old Skip Schumaker is lined up to be the Cardinals' starting second baseman for the third year in a row. Schumaker actually had a pretty bad year in '10, hitting .265 with 18 doubles, 5 homers, 42 RBI, 5 stolen bases, and a .328 OBP in 137 games. Schumaker wasn't good in any of those stats. Schumaker even had a .294 BAbip! But, that .294 BAbip came along with a 22% LD%, so it should have been higher. Schumaker owns a 21% career LD%, and accordingly, he owns a .322 career BAbip. Maybe when that evens out, Schumaker will hit .300 again in 2011 (he hit .300 each season from '07 to '09). (Schumaker's 3.0% HR/FB was right around his career average of 3.2%.) Even if Schumaker hits .300 though, he still wouldn't be more than a decent player, considering he has no power and no speed. But, Schumaker is great defensively, right? Well, Schumaker was once a very good defensive outfielder, but since being converted to second base, he's been a below-average defender, posting a .978 Fld% (league average .984), although he has shown good range (4.96 RF/9 compared to league average of 4.82). In two seasons at second base, he owns a combined -22.8 UZR. Schumaker is a decent player overall at best and because of him, the Cardinals have a questionable situation at second base.
Tyler Greene and Daniel Descalso will likely make the Astros' big league roster to begin the year (with Punto hurt), and you have to wonder whether one of them could eventually wrestle the starting second base job from the unimpressive Schumaker. Before looking at any other stats, you would have to give Descalso a leg up because he has logged 343 professional games at second base compared to Greene's 22, all in the majors.
Greene, 27, appeared in 44 major league games in '10, hitting just .221 with 3 doubles, 2 homers, 10 RBI, 2 stolen bases, and a .328 OBP. It was a limited sample size, but he was bad. He had just a .266 BAbip despite a 20% LD%, but he had just a 65% IP%, so less hits had an opportunity to drop in. Defensively, he was even worse, posting a .934 Fld% at SS, albeit with good range, a .935 Fld% at second base with bad range, and a .929 Fld% at third base with good range. Even though he showed good range at short and third, his fielding percentages were so bad that it didn't even matter. At Triple-AMemphis in '10, Greene hit .284 with 21 doubles, 9 homers, 34 RBI, 12 stolen bases, and a .355 OBP in 82 games. But, he needed a .373 BAbip to hit .284. Defensively, Greene posted above-average range at short, but he again posted a below-average .963 Fld%. Green could be a decent backup for the Cards, but it doesn't seem like he could be a starter for any major league team right now.
Descalso, 24, appeared in 11 major league games in '10, hitting .265 with 2 doubles, 4 RBI, and a .324 OBP. He was perfect in 9 games at third base and 1 at shortstop. In the minors in '10, Descalso hit .282 at Triple-A Memphis with 32 doubles, 9 homers, 71 RBI, 86 runs, 8 stolen bases, and a .350 OBP in 116 games. Descalso struck out 48 times and walked 47 times, an impressive if not quite Pujols-esque ratio. He also had a .295 BAbip, so his .282 BA was no fluke. He posted a below-average .973 Fld% at second base, but with great range, and he also posted an 1.000 Fld% in 6 games at first base. Descalso seems like he could be a better player than Schumaker. He'll have an opportunity to prove himself at the big league level while Nick Punto is out, and if he can show some flashes of brilliance, maybe he'll have an opportunity to remain on the big league club and challenge Schumaker for the second base job. Daniel Descalso could be a good player for the Cardinals in the coming years. Between Greene and Descalso, the Cardinals have good depth behind Schumaker at second base, but again, Schumaker is a questionable starter.
Third base:
David Freese is healthy again, and he has another opportunity to seize the Cardinals' third base job. Up until June 27th, 2010, Freese, who will turn 28 in late April, was doing pretty well as the Cardinals' third baseman, hitting .296 with 12 doubles, 4 homers, 36 RBI, and a .361 OBP in 70 games. Freese had a crazy .376 BAbip, but that was actually because of an incredible 23% LD%. Also, Freese did have a .353 BAbip in the minors. He was unlucky though to have a 4.6% HR/FB. Defensively, Freese posted a .950 Fld% at third base (league average .951), but showed very good range. Everything was going well for Freese in his rookie season. But, on June 27th, Freese injured his right ankle. And while on a rehab assignment, he dropped a weight on his left foot, and later re-injured his right ankle. Those injuries kept him out the rest of the season. Freese seems like he's a good player, but he has to stay healthy. If you project Freese's 2010 stats over a full season (he played in 70 of the team's 75 games, so these projections are for 151 games), he would have hit .296 with 26 doubles, 9 homers, 78 RBI, and a .361 OBP, although obviously he could've had a hot month or an extended slump that could have changed his stats quite a bit. Those are certainly good stats. David Freese, if he can stay healthy, will be a good player for the Cardinals in 2011.
Freese will be backed up by Nick Punto when healthy, Allen Craig, and Daniel Descalso. Punto, 33, hit .238 for the Twins in '10, with 11 doubles, 1 homer, 20 RBI, 6 stolen bases, and a .313 OBP in 88 games. He was a starter most of the first half of the year before being replaced by Danny Valencia. Defensively, he showed above-average range at third base, shortstop, and second base, but while he posted a perfect 1.000 Fld% at third base, he posted a .962 Fld% at shortstop and just a .936 Fld% at second base. As I've referred to several times already, right at the beginning of spring training Punto suffered a sports hernia injury that required surgery. He'll be out until late April. While Punto's out, as I've mentioned, Tyler Greene and Daniel Descalso have an opportunity to prove themselves at the big league level, and since Punto isn't an incredible player himself, I wouldn't be all that surprised if Punto is traded not too long after he comes back if either Greene or Descalso shows an ability to be a utility player of Punto's level and more. The good news for the Cardinals as that even though Freese may be a fragile player, they have good depth behind him.
Shortstop:
31 year old middle infielder Ryan Theriot, acquired from the Dodgers this offseason for Blake Hawksworth, had a decent offensive season in 2010, hitting .270 with 15 doubles, 2 homers, 29 RBI, 20 stolen bases, and a .321 OBP in 150 games between the Cubs and Dodgers. Theriot is in the middle of a bad 3-year trend in which his BA has gone done each year (.307 in '08 to .284 in '09, to .270 in '10), and so have his hits (178 to 171 to 158), runs (85 to 81 to 72), stolen bases (22 to 21 to 20), and OBP (.387 to .343 to .321). What's been going on? Those were Theriot's age 28, 29, and 30 seasons, which were supposed to be his prime! Why did he begin to decline so early? Well, in turns out that Theriot's BAbip has been going down as well, going from down from .339 in '08 to .323 in '09 to .305 in '10. And why has that been happening? A decrease in LD% from 22% to 19% to 18%. In addition Theriot's IF/FB has gone up from 5% to 6% to 9%, which isn't that big of a deal, but it just make his BA and BAbip a bit worse. Is there any chance that Theriot rebounds in 2011? Well, one of Theriot's stats from the last three seasons would give you hope: IP%. Theriot's IP% went from 79% in 2008 to 75% in 2009, up to 80% in 2010. Theriot hit so many balls in play, but only an average amount found holes. Maybe if he could put up such a high IP% again, he'll get a bit more lucky and have a BAbip that's around .320 again. If he can put up a .320 BAbip again, he'll at least hit .280 again, which would be an improvement. Theriot isn't a great offensive player, but the Cardinals obviously want everything they can get from him offensively. Defensively in 2010, Theriot posted above average fielding percentages at second base and shortstop, .986 and .974 respectively. But, he showed below average range at both positions. That's also been Theriot's trend for his career- he owns above-average .987 and .976 fielding percentages at second base and shortstop respectively, but again he has shown below-average range. When you couple Theriot's fringy offense with his below-average defense, it becomes pretty clear that he's nothing more than a decent player. Maybe he's better than the other options the Cardinals had (Brenden Ryan, who has since been traded to the Mariners, and I guess Greene [Descalso doesn't really play shortstop]), but he's still not that great of a player. He'll be backed up by Greene and Punto when he comes back. Ryan Theriot will be a decent player overall for the Cardinals in '10, but nothing more.
Left Field:
Matt Holliday will be patroling left field for the Cardinals again in '11, just as he will until 2016. Holliday, now 31 years old, hit .312 in '10 with 45 doubles, 28 homers, 103 RBI, 95 runs, 186 hits, and a .390 OBP in 158 games. Holliday had a .331 BAbip, actually lower than his career BAbip of .348, despite his regular 21% LD%. He also had an 11.2% HR/FB compared to his career average of 11.6% (if it had been 11.6%, he would of had 29 homers). Holliday just had a great year as usual for him. Defensively, Holliday was slightly above-average, posting a .989 Fld% compared to the league average of .985 with average range (1.80 RF/9 compared to the league average of 1.82). He also had 8 outfield assists. Holliday's defense doesn't hold him back at all (well, most of the time- 2009 NLDS comes to mind). He's not quite Pujols, but he's certainly a great player in his own right and deserving of that 7 year, 120 million dollar contract that the Cardinals gave him.
Holliday will be backed up by Allen Craig and Jon Jay. Jay, who will turn 26 on March 15th, made his major league debut in '10, and played very well for a backup, hitting .300 with 19 doubles, 4 homers, 27 RBI, and a .359 OBP in 105 games. Jay had his struggles in right field, posting a .986 Fld% that was exactly the league average with poor range, but he was perfect in centerfield while showing great range, and he was also perfect in 9 games in left field. Jay was primarily a centerfielder in the minors (179 games), and he also played quite a bit of left field (117 games), but he only played 27 minor league games in right field before playing 61 major league games there in '10. Hopefully as he adjusts to the position, he'll be as great there as he is in centerfield in right field. Jay is a really good backup. Add Craig into the mix, and the Cardinals have nice depth behind Holliday.
Centerfield:
24 year old Cardinals centerfielder Colby Rasmus has been the subject of controversy regarding his relationship with Cardinals manager Tony La Russa. Is he a good enough player to be worth the controversy? Rasmus had a pretty good year in '10, hitting .276 with 28 doubles, 23 homers, 66 RBI, 85 runs, 12 stolen bases, and a .361 OBP in 144 games. Rasmus needed a .354 BAbip to hit .276 because he strikes out so darn much (148 K's, 27.7% of his plate appearances compared to the MLB average of 18.2%). Rasmus did have a 22% LD%, but he had an awful 56% IP%. Rasmus simply doesn't hit the ball on the ground. He had a crazy 47.8% fly ball percentage (according to fangraphs.com, but fangraphs and baseball-reference.com, which I've been using for stats otherwise in this post, differ in several stats, so maybe that percentage is somewhat off compared to baseball-reference's 22% LD% for Rasmus). Rasmus' crazy amount of fly balls paid off with an 11.7% HR/FB and a 42% X/H% (percentage of hits that went for extra bases) compared to the MLB average of 33%. Rasmus is the kind of player that could hit 25 homers a season for a long time, but the problem with him is that he'll never hit .300, especially when his BAbip returns to neutral (considering his 22% LD%, maybe that's around .320). Not to mention RBI's. Rasmus batted in the 5th hole for the Cardinals in half of his 144 games in '10, yet he drove in just 66 runs. Rasmus drove in 43 runs out of the 5th hole in 72 games, but just 23 runs in the 72 other games he played, despite playing 26 games in the 2-3-4 spots in the order (he drove in just 4 combined runs in those games). Of Rasmus' 23 homers, 10 of them were solo shots, including 8 to lead off innings.Intrestingly, not only did Rasmus hit 10 bases empty homers compared to 13 homers with runners on base, but also he hit .294 with the bases empty compared to .255 with runners on base and .254 with runners in scoring postion. Most players hit as many or more solo shots as homers with runners on base anyway, but you have to worry about the .255 average with men on base. They have to hope it's a fluke. If it was, you should expect 80 or more RBI's from Rasmus in 2010. It's a strange situation with Rasmus, but you have to think he'll start driving in more runs from here on out. Defensively, Rasmus was pretty bad, posting a below-average .981 Fld% in centerfield with awful range (2.13 RF/9 compared to league average of 2.59) and just 1 assist. Defense might be more of a worry for Rasmus than offense. But, if he can start driving in more runs, it would be easier to deal with his glove-work. He'll be backed up by Jay and Greene. Colby Rasmus is a pretty good player overall for the Cardinals.
Right field:
Lance Berkman, signed by the Cardinals this offseason to a 1 year, 8 million dollar contract, is lined up to do something he hasn't done since 2004: play the outfield full-time. Berkman, 35, hit .248 in '10 with 23 doubles, 14 homers, 58 RBI, and a .368 OBP in 122 games between the Astros and Yankees. Berkman had a .282 BAbip in '10, way down from his .317 career BAbip, but that was because of a 17% LD%. His 10.4 HR/FB also compared unfavorably to his 14.7 career HR/FB, and in fact, it was the lowest of his career. Berkman isn't the player he used to be, but the Cardinals hope he can at least be a decent offensive player. Defensively though, Berkman owns just a .970 Fld% with below-average range in 264 games, most of which coming when he was 28 and younger. What the heck are the Cardinals thinking? But, the problem from them is that Matt Holliday has never played right field as a pro (he did play third base in the minors, and he was completely awful posting just an .879 Fld%). Berkman is stuck playing right field, and I suspect we'll see a lot of Allen Craig and Jon Jay, Berkman's backups at the end of games. Berkman is just a decent player at this point of his career.
Starting rotation:
Entering 2011, the Cardinals had two aces compared to the Phillies' full slate of four. Now, they're down to 1. Chris Carpenter, who will turn 36 in late April, went 16-9 in '10 with a 3.22 ERA and 179 K's compared to 63 walks in 35 starts and 235 IP. He allowed 214 hits, 8.2 per 9, and 21 homers allowed, 0.8 per 9. It wasn't as good of a year for Carpenter as he had in '09, when he finished 2nd in the NL Cy Young voting after going 17-4 with a 2.24 ERA. What was the difference? Well, his BAbip went up from .274 to .282, but that's not a big difference at all. His LD% went up from 17% to 18%. The big differences from Carpenter was HR/FB, which doubled from 3.4% in '09 to 6.7% in '10, and LOB%, which decreased from 79.5% in '09 to 73.3% in '10. Carpenter was a little bit luckier in 2009 than in 2010, when things evened out for him. Still, a 3.22 ERA is pretty good. Carpenter was a decent hitting pitcher in '10, hitting .111 with a homer, 4 RBI, and 10 sac bunts. Carpenter might not be the true ace he used to be anymore, but he's still a very good pitcher for the Cardinals.
24 year old lefty Jaime Garcia is coming off an outstanding rookie season. Garcia finished third in the NL Rookie of the Year voting behind Buster Posey and Jason Heyward, going 13-8 with a 2.70 ERA and 132 K's compared to 64 walks in 28 starts and 163.1 IP. He allowed 151 hits, an 8.3 H/9, and 9 homers, a great ratio of 0.5 per 9. Is Garcia primed for an encore in 2011, or is he due for a sophomore slump? Well, after looking at his BAbip in 2010 (.293), you get the feeling that Garcia wasn't lucky in '10. He also allowed a 20% LD% and a 70% IP% that were right around the league average. Another big factor for Garcia was a 55.9% GB%. But, Garcia allowed just a 4.7% HR/FB, so he was certainly lucky in that regard. When everything evens out, it's unlikely that Garcia will post an ERA under 3.00 again in '10. But, if he can manage a low-3.00's ERA, that would be fine for the Cardinals. Garcia is no automatic out, considering he hit .185 in '10 with 2 RBI and 4 sac bunts. With Wainwright hurt, the Cardinals need some pitchers to step up. Jaime Garica needs to be one of those guys.
On July 31st of 2010, Jake Westbrook was a struggling pitcher for the Indians, having gone 6-7 in his first 21 starts of the season with a 4.65 ERA. But, that day he was traded to the Cardinals, where he went 4-4 with a 3.48 ERA in 12 starts the rest of the season. The Cardinals resigned the 33 year old sinker-baller this offseason, hoping he can continue his nice second half. Overall in 2010, Westbrook went 10-11 with a 4.22 ERA and 128 K's compared to 68 walks in 33 starts and 202.2 IP. He allowed 203 hits, almost exactly a hit per inning at 9.0 per 9, and 20 homers, 0.9 per 9. Westbrook allowed a .290 BAbip in '10, which might have actually been a bit unlucky considering Westbrook allowed just a 16% LD%. He did allow a 73% IP%, as expected from a sinker-baller. He had a 56.4% GB%. In terms of those stats, you would think that Westbrook was just unlucky in '10, but Westbrook allowed an 8.0% HR/FB that was right around the MLB average, yet he still allowed 20 homers. Westbrook wasn't unlucky in '10 to have a 4.22 ERA. He is what he is, just a pretty good pitcher, nothing better. Westbrook hit .111 with 1 RBI and 1 sac bunt in '10, showing that he's still an AL pitcher at heart. Jake Westbrook is a decent third starter for the Cardinals.
The four candidates for the last two spots in the Cardinals' rotation are Kyle Lohse, Kyle McClellan, Brandon Dickson, and Lance Lynn.
Kyle Lohse, 32, struggled through a forearm injury in '10, going 4-8 with a 6.55 ERA and 54 K's compared to 35 walks in 18 starts and 92 IP. He allowed an incredible 129 hits, a horrible 12.6 H/9, and 9 homers, a 0.9 HR/9. When you delve deeper into the stats, the first thing you notice is that Lohse allowed a crazy .369 BAbip. But, that had to be expected considering he allowed a 23% LD%. Lohse also allowed a 75% IP%. All those stats are bad enough, but in addition Lohse was actually helped out by a relatively low HR/FB (5.3%). Is there any hope for Lohse? Yes, for three reasons. First off, Lohse will be healthy in '10 and that will obviously help his performance. But also, there are two stats that seem to indicate that Lohse will rebound in 2011: FIP and LOB%. The past three seasons, Lohse has gone from 15-6 with a 3.78 ERA in 2008 to 6-10 with a 4.74 ERA to 4-8 with a 6.55 ERA in '10. Over that period of time, Lohse's LOB% (percentage of baserunners allowed that were stranded on base) fell from 73.6% to 67.1% to 59.6%. Of course, if you strand less runners, you have a worse ERA. LOB% is a lot of luck, so Lohse was just really unlucky in 2010. (For example, if a pitcher allows a leadoff single or a single with two outs, he still allowed a single, but the leadoff single is the start to a big inning while if the pitcher allows a 2-out single, he's one out away from getting out of the inning and stranding the runner.) The other stat to look at with Lohse was his FIP, the fielding independent equivalent of his ERA. When Lohse had a 3.78 ERA in '08, he had a 3.89 FIP. When his ERA jumped up to 4.74 in '09, he had a 4.55 FIP. But in '10, even though his ERA went all the way up to 6.55, Lohse actually had a 4.42 FIP. Lohse has been great so far in spring training, posting a 1.38 ERA, 9 K's, and no walks in 3 starts and 13 IP. The Cardinals hope everything evens out for Lohse in 2011, and he has a decent year for them.
After an outstanding year in the bullpen in '10, the Cardinals are considering making 26 year old right-hander Kyle McClellan into a starter. Is the move worth it and will will it work out? McClellan was pretty darn good in '10, going 1-4 with a 2.27 ERA, 60 K's (7.2 K/9), 23 walks (2.7 BB/9), 58 hits allowed (6.9 H/9), 9 homers allowed (1.1 HR/9), 19 holds, and 2 saves in 68 RA's and 75.1 IP. But, McClellan allowed just a .236 BAbip in 2010. Was he just really lucky? Actually no. McClellan allowed just a 15% LD%, a 68% IP%, and he managed a 50.7% GB%. McClellan was lucky to have a .236 BAbip in '10, but not by that much. However, McClellan was unlucky in terms of HR/FB, allowing a 9.1% HR/FB. When everything evens out, McClellan could still have an ERA under 2.50 in '11. But wait- that's what he would do as a reliever. McClellan could clearly be an effective middle reliever for the Cardinals in '10 if he doesn't pull on rotation spot, but how will he do if he does pull a C.J. Wilson and become a starter? First of all, does McClellan have any starting experience? Well, McClellan has appeared in 202 major league games, all in relief. In the minors though, 51 of McClellans' 103 appearances were starts. From 2002 through 2006, McClellan was primarily a starter, starting 50 games compared to 13 in relief between Low-A and Rookie ball. He managed just a 5.27 ERA, with just a 5.9 K/9, a 2.9 BB/9, a 10.1 h/9, and a 0.8 HR/9. He never even had a winning season, going just 8-25 overall. He also had a .238 BAbip, so that wasn't his problem. If that was the McClellan that the Cardinals got as a starter, that would be a disaster. But, McClellan is obviously a different pitcher now. We'll have to see what happens with McClellan. The good news for him is that he's matching Lohse start for start, posting a 1.29 ERA with 4 K's and 1 walk in 2 starts and 7 IP. Kyle McClellan is will definitely be on the Cardinals' big league roster in '10 in some capacity, either as a reliever or as a starter, and he the potential to succeed in either role.
Brandon Dickson is another 26 year old right-hander, but while Lohse was being a middle reliever for the Cardinals the past three seasons, Dickson was continuing his gradual progression through the minors, advancing from High-A in 2008 to Triple-A in 2010. Dickson is an organizational arm that unexpectedly never slowed down as he faced harder and harder competition. Dickson was signed by the Cardinals as an undrafted free agent out of Division II Tusculum College in 2006. The Cardinals sent the 21 year old Dickson to Rookie-level Johnson City in 2006, and he performed exactly the way you would think he would, posting a 6.35 ERA in 9 relief apperances. But since then, Dickson has been an effective pitcher, posting a 3.65 ERA and averaging 150.2 IP per season. That sounds like a good innings-eating 4th starter to me (how many minor pitchers in the past 50 years have thrown four 140 inning seasons in the minors?). What's pretty amazing is that Dickson managed an ERA under 4.00 while allowing a 9.7 H/9. Dickson also did that while striking out just 6.3 per 9, but he kept the walks and homers down to 2.9 per 9 and 0.6 per 9 respectively. In 2010 at Triple-A Memphis, Dickson had his best season in the minors, going 11-8 with a career-best 3.23 ERA, a career-high 137 K's (his 7.4 K/9 was his highest since his brief 2006), and 53 walks (2.9 BB/9) in a career-high 27 starts, 1 relief appearance, and a career-high 167 IP. He did allow 180 hits, 9.7 per 9, but just 11 homers, 0.6 per 9. Dickson was even awarded The Cardinal Nation/Scout.com Minor League Starting Pitcher of the Year Award for pitchers in the Cardinals organization. Why did Dickson all of a sudden have his best season in the minors at Triple-A? Well, the three stats to look at would be BAbip, LOB%, and FIP the first of two of which are based around luck. Dickson had a .331 BAbip in '10, quite a bit above his .318 career BAbip. His LOB% was 72.8%, a bit higher than his 70.3 career LOB%, but not enough of a difference to make his ERA in '10 .47 lower than his career ERA. But what about his FIP? FIP isn't luck, since it's independent of fielders. Dickson managed a 3.53 FIP in '10 compared to his 3.82 career FIP. The primary reason for Dickson's career-best FIP was his career-best 2.58 K/BB ratio. That's the real reason for Dickson's success. While he might have been mildly lucky in terms of LOB%, Dickson really improved because he improved his strikeout rate while keeping his walk rate low. If Dickson can continue that trend he could be an effective pitcher at the back end of the Cardinals rotation. However, that may not be quite yet- Dickson has a 7.20 ERA so far in spring training, alllowing 7 runs (5 ER) on 9 hits and 2 walks while striking out 3 in 6 IP. Dickson might not make the Cardinals out of spring training, but he's certain to make his big league debut sometime during the 2011 season. Brandon Dickson will be an interesting prospect for the Cardinals in the near future, but he probably won't win either of the two starting spots that the Cardinals have available right now.
Lance Lynn, a right-hander starter who will turn 24 in May, was a supplemental-first round draft pick by the Cardinals out of the University of Mississippi in 2008, quite different from Dickson, who went to a Division II school and was undrafted. In 2008, Lynn, then 21, debuted at Short Season-A Batavia, and dominated his competition, going 1-0 with a 0.96 ERA, 22 K's (10.6 K/9), and 4 walks (1.9 BB/9) in 4 starts, 2 RA's, and 18.2 IP. He allowed just 12 hits, 5.8 per 9, and no homers (obviously 0.0 per 9). He was so good that he even made 2 starts at Low-A Quad Cities, going 0-1 with a 2.25 ERA in 2 starts, striking out 2 and walking 7 in 8 IP. But, Lynn's best performances were yet to come. In 2009, Lynn started the season at High-A Palm Beach, but after posting a 2.30 ERA and 17 K's in 2 starts, 3 relief appearances, and 15.2 IP, the Cardinals promoted him straight to Double-A Springfield. With Springfield, Lynn continued his hot streak, going 11-4 with a 2.92 ERA, 98 K's (7.0 K/9), 51 walks (3.6 BB/9), 117 hits allowed (8.3 H/9), and just 5 homers allowed (0.4 HR/9) in 22 starts and 126.1 IP. Wait a second- you have to notice that Lynn's strikeout rate, walk rate, and hit rate were pedestrian at best. He wasn't really that great at all! Why did he do so well? He did have a .299 BAbip, right around the average, but he had a 73.3% LOB%. The clear indicator of that Lynn's ERA was an illusion though, was his 3.47 FIP. He was good, but certainly not great. Nevertheless, the Cardinals sent him up to Triple-A Memphis for a start, and he allowed 2 runs on 5 hits in 6.2 IP, striking out 9 and walking 3, to end his season. On the year, Lynn went 11-4 with a 2.85 ERA, 124 Ks (7.5 K/9), 57 walks (3.5 BB/9), 138 hits allowed (8.4 H/9), and 5 homers allowed (0.3 HR/9) in 25 starts, 3 relief appearances, and 148.2 IP. Lynn was so good that he was ranked the Cardinals' 3rd-best prospect entering 2010, and he was the Scout.com/The Cardinal Nation System Starting Pitcher of the Year for 2009 (again, among Cardinals prospects). Still, some of those Double-A numbers just had to worrying. Those worries came into fruition in 2010. Lynn spent all of 2010 at Memphis, and needless to say, he did not meet expectations. Lynn went 13-10 with a 4.77 ERA, 141 K's (7.7 K/9), 62 walks (3.4 BB/9), 164 hits allowed (9.0 H/9), and 21 homers allowed (a 1.2 HR/9 that was 4 times his '09 HR/9) in 29 starts and 164 IP. He was a decent innings eater, but he started allowing homers and a hit per inning. What happened? Well, while his BAbip stayed at .300, Lynn's LOB% went down to 67.5%, and most worrisome, his FIP ballooned to 4.43. Lynn just got unlucky with his LOB%, and his FIP going up was due to his luck running out in terms of homers allowed (I wish some website had HR/FB minor leaguers). Either way, Lynn will have a significant problem going forward if he can't get that homer rate down. Lynn has a 5.14 ERA in 3 spring training appearances spanning 7 IP, allowing 4 runs on 6 hits, striking out 5 and walking 4. Lance Lynn was a great prospect, but unless he fixes his homer problem, he may never spend significant time in the majors for the Cardinals. No chance Lynn appears in any major league games other than in September unless several more pitchers get hurt.
It's pretty clear that Lohse and McClellan should be the Cardinals' 4th and 5th starters in '10, although if the Cardinals feel that McClellan would be better suited in the bullpen, Dickson could theoretically sneak into the rotation.
Bullpen:
Jason Motte had an outstanding season as a middle reliever for the Cardinals in '10, going 4-2 with a 2.24 ERA, 54 K's (9.3 K/9), 18 walks (3.1 BB/9), 41 hits allowed (7.1 H/9), 5 homers allowed (0.9 HR/9), 12 holds, and 2 saves in 56 relief appearances (RA's) and 52.1 IP. Was he legitimately good, or was he one of the many middle relievers who have one great year because of a complete fluke and then collapse? Keep in mind that Motte had a 4.76 ERA in 69 major league relief appearances in '09. Motte was mildly lucky in '10 in terms of BAbip, allowing a .277 BAbip, but that BAbip wasn't too far off from what it should have been, considering Motte allowed a 16% LD% in '10. He allowed a good 63% IP%, and his HR/FB was right around the league average at 7.0%. From these stats, Motte wasn't really lucky at all! However, Motte had a crazy 88.5% LOB% compared to the league average of 72.0%. When Motte had a 73.5 LOB% in '09, he had the aforementioned 4.76 ERA. When everything evens out, Motte will be lucky to post an ERA under 3.00. (By the way, he had a 3.24 FIP in '10, so Motte posting an ERA right around there is certainly within the realm of possibility.) Jason Motte is a decent reliever for the Cardinals, but there's a very slim chance that his 2011 ERA is with half a run of his 2.25 ERA in '10.
37 year old left-hander Trever Miller had a halfway decent season as the Cardinals' lefty specialist in '10, going 0-1 with a 4.00 ERA, 22 K's (5.5 K/9), 16 walks (4.0 BB/9), 30 hits allowed (7.5 H/9), 2 homers allowed (0.5 HR/9), and 11 holds in 57 RA's and in typical left specialist fashion, just 36 IP. You sort of want to ask why Miller's ERA went up from 2.06 in '09 for the Cardinals to 4.00 in '10, but then again, all of Miller's season are such a limited sample size (he hasn't even pitched 55 innings in a season since 2002 in the minors), but Miller's BAbip did go up from .239 to .257 from '09 to '10, and his FIP went up from 3.37 to 4.08 because his K/9 went down from 9.5 to 5.5. The real reason though, was a decrease in LOB% from 89.2% to 68.6%. It would appear that Trever Miller probably won't will rebound in 2011, but it doesn't really matter because as long as his ERA is reasonable, he'll be a decent reliever for the Cardinals.
27 year old righty Mitchell Boggs had a decent in the Cardinals' bullpen in '10, going 2-3 with a 3.61 ERA, 52 K's (7.0 K/9), 27 walks (3.6 BB/9), 60 hits allowed (8.0 H/9), 5 homers allowed (0.7 HR/9), and 6 holds in 61 RA's and 67.1 IP. Boggs allowed a .285 BAbip despite a 15% LD%, a 52.8 GB%, and a 68% IP%. He had a 73.8% LOB%, so he wasn't lucky in that regard, and he also had a 6.2% HR/FB, so he wasn't too lucky there either (maybe add in 1 or 2 homers to his season total, which wouldn't have been an enormous deal). Boggs had a 3.81 FIP, primarily because he didn't have a 2 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio. If he can fix that, maybe he could be a bit better in 2011. Best case scenario, he posts a high-2.00's ERA for the Cardinals, but even if he did, it would be a fluke because he's just a decent reliever. Mitchell Boggs is a decent reliever for the Cardinals.
33 year old lefty Brian Tallet was awful for the Blue Jays in '10, going 26 with a 6.40 ERA,, 53 K's (6.2 K/9), 38 walks (4.4 BB/9), 84 hits allowed (9.8 H/9), 20 homers allowed (2.3 HR/9), and 1 hold in 29 RA's, 5 starts, and 77.1 IP. He put up those stats while allowing just a .267 BAbip (despite a 15% LD% and 67% IP%), but his real problem was a crazy 15.2% HR/FB. He also had just a 67.2% LOB%. When everything evens out, there's no way Tallet will be as bad as he was in '10 again in '11. While Tallet probably won't return to his '08 levels (2.88 ERA in 51 RA's), maybe he could return to his '07 levels. That year, he had a 3.47 ERA in 48 RA's. (Tallet spent 2009 mostly as a starter.) You never know with middle relievers, but Tallet should be a decent cog in the Cardinals' bullpen in 2011.
In the twilight of his career, 40 year old right-hander Miguel Batista has remade himself into a decent middle reliever. The one-time 16 game winner went 1-2 for the Nationals in '10 with a 3.70 ERA, 55 K's (6.0 K/9), 39 walks (4.2 BB/9), 71 hits allowed (7.7 H/9), 9 homers allowed (1.0 HR/9), 2 holds, and 2 saves in 57 RA's, 1 start, and 82.2 IP. But, Batista allowed just a .257 BAbip, even though he had a 17% LD% and a league-average 69% IP%. Batista did have a 54% GB%, but he also had a 77.2% LOB%. Batista also had an 8.2% HR/FB that was right around the league average. Because of his poor strikeout to walk ratios and homer rate, Batista had a bad 4.76 FIP. Also, he appeared in very few pressure situations, appearing in just 4 save situations, and posting a 0.66 aLI (average leverage index), his lowest since 1966. (Leverage is pressure, aLI is the average pressure a pitcher goes through during a game. 1.00 is average.) Batista got very lucky in '10, and there's almost no chance he posts an ERA under 4.00 in 2011. At best, Miguel Batista is a decent reliver for the Cardinals.
25 year old right-hander Fernando Salas had a decent year as a reliever for the Cardinals, going 0-0 with a 3.52 ERA, 29 K's (8.5 K/9),15 walks (4.4 BB/9), 28 hits allowed (8.2 H/9), and 4 homers allowed (1.2 HR/9), and 1 hold in 27 RA's and 30.2 IP. He managed a decent ERA, but you can't like his strikeout to walk ratio that was under 2 to 1, or his 1.2 HR/9. Because of all these factors, Salas had just a 4.35 FIP. At least he kept his hits allowed down with a 15% LD% and a 63% IP% (he had a .286 BAbip). But, at least in terms of homers allowed, Salas was somewhat unlucky, allowing a 9.5% HR/FB. Even so, when everything evens out in 2011, Salas will have a worse year. Maybe he could sneak his ERA under 4.00, but not much better than that. Salas is just another decent reliever for the Cardinals.
Closer:
38 year old right-handed reliever Ryan Franklin had a halfway decent year as the Cardinals' closer in '10, going 6-2 with a 3.46 ERA, 42 K's (5.8 K/9), 10 walks (1.4 BB/9), 57 hits allowed (7.9 H/9), 7 homers allowed (1.0 HR/9), and 27 saves (2 blown saves) in 59 RA's and 65 IP. That was a far cry from his great 2009 season, when he posted a 1.92 ERA and saves 30 games in 62 RA's. What happened? Interestingly, Franklin's BAbip actually went down from .263 to .250 from '09 to '10. Franklin's LD% went up down to 21% to 20%, but his IP% went up from 72% to 76%. His GB% went down from 45.6% to 44.7%. Franklin's most notable increase among 'common' stats from '09 to '10 was HR/9, from 0.3 to 1.0. That was because of an increase in HR/FB from 2.5% to 7.3%. But, Franklin's real problem was LOB%. His LOB% shot down from 85.7% to 75.2%. Add that in to his FIP in '10 (3.83, up from 3.31 in '09), and that's how Franklin managed a 3.46 ERA. Franklin didn't have that bad of a year, but considering he doesn't strike anybody out, he has to maintain a good strand rate to remain a good pitcher. But, considering he's only posted one season with an ERA under 2.00 (2009), and that was the only year he had an 85% LOB%, there's no reason to think Franklin will be able to post an ERA under 2.00 in '11 (or for that matter, an 85% LOB%). The Cardinals just have to hope that Franklin's homer rate goes down and that he can at least post an ERA under 3.00 in 2011. Unfortunately for them, Franklin's HR/FB was actually below neutral in 2010. Ryan Franklin is a halfway-decent closer for the Cardinals.
Overview:
The Cardinals' offense has Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday as a part of it, but other than those two, it's really pretty bad. The Cardinals have just a pretty good offense. After Yadier Molina, they have a bad defense as well. Their rotation without Wainwright is average at best, and they have a bad bullpen. That does not sound like a good team me. After the Cardinals' finish this year, Pujols won't have second thoughts about not giving the Cardinals a hometown discount.
2010 record: 86-76
Prediction: 79-83, 4th in NL Central
The Cardinals will make the playoffs if...Pujols and Holliday have monster years, Freese stays healthy, Carpenter stays healthy and hurls a Cy Young-worthy year, Jaime Garcia avoids any sort of sophomore slump, Kyle Lohse and Kyle McClellan have pretty good seasons as the Cardinals 4th and 5th starters, the bullpen doesn't completely collapse, and Ryan Franklin saves 40 games for the first time in his career.
Catcher:
Yadier Molina is entering his 7th full season as the Cardinals' starting catcher. Yadier, the youngest of the catching Molina brothers at age 28, had a decent year offensively, hitting .262 with 19 doubles, 6 homers, 62 RBI (a career-high), 8 stolen bases, and a .329 OBP in 136 games. Molina has been a fairly consistent offensive player over the course of his career, hitting between 15 and 26 doubles, between 6 and 8 homers, and driving in between 40 and 62 runs each full season of his career. But, his BA has not been anywhere near as consistent varying from .216 to .304. What's the reason for that? When he hit .254 in '05 and .216 in '06, Molina had BAbip's of .254 and .226 respectively. When he hit .292 from '07 to '09, he had a .306 BAbip. He had a .281 BAbip in '10. Like post players, Molina's BA has been greatly effected by his BAbip. The big difference in BAbip for Molina was because of an improved line drive rate. He had just a 14% LD% in '05, but he improved that to 19% in '06, and 21% the past 4 seasons, including a career high 22% LD% in 2010. Molina was pretty unlucky to hit .262 in '10. But, where he wasn't unlucky was his .329 OBP, his lowest since '06. For his career, Molina has walked 49% of the time when a plate appearance reached a 3-ball count, but he walked just 44% of the time in those plate appearances in 2010. He put the ball in play on a 3-ball count 41% of the time, actually lower than his 42% IP% on 3-ball counts for his career, but he struck out 13% of his plate appearances with a 3-ball count, compared to 9% for his career. These numbers with 3-ball counts might be a complete fluke, so we'll just have to see what happens in 2011. No matter what problems Molina has offensively, his defense will still make his a good player. Molina was amazing again defensively in '10, posting a .995 Fld% and a ridiculous 49% CS% (still only the third-best of his career). He did allow 7 passed balls, but even so, he had a 1.7 dWAR (compared to his 1.4 oWAR), 4th in the NL to three outfielders, Michael Bourn, Angel Pagan, and Justin Upton. Molina won his 3rd consecutive Gold Glove at catcher in 2010. Molina is due for a rebound offensively, and his defense is just so great that it's hard not to peg him for a "great" overall year in 2011. The Cardinals have a great situation overall at catcher with Yadier Molina's outstanding defense and pretty good offense.
The Cardinals signed veteran catcher Gerald Laird this offseason to back up Molina. Laird, actually just 31 years old, (I honestly thought he was several years older, but considering he has a 23 year old brother, Brandon Laird, in the Yankees organization, I probably should have known that he wasn't that much older), hit .207 as the Tigers' backup catcher in '10 with 11 doubles, 5 homers, 25 RBI, and a .263 OBP in 89 games. He had a .243 BAbip despite a 20% LD%, so maybe his BA could improve significantly in 2011 (not that it would make a huge difference). Laird wasn't as awesome defensively in '10 as he was in '09 (when he posted a .997 Fld% and a 42% CS%), but he still posted a .991 Fld% and a 34% CS%. The Cardinals won't lose too much defensively when Laird subs in for Molina. Laird is a fine backup to Molina.
First base:
No matter what anybody says, Albert Pujols is a ridiculous player. In 2010, Pujols posted his lower oWAR (7.2) since 2007, yet he still hit .312 with 39 doubles, 42 homers, 118 RBI, 115 runs, 183 hits, 14 stolen bases, and a .414 OBP in 159 games. The 115 runs, 42 homers, and 118 RBI all led the NL, and he also led the lead with 38 intentional walks. Add in that Pujols walked 103 times while striking out 76 times. Even when he wasn't being intentionally walked 40 times a year, Pujols still didn't strike out more times than he walked- over the course of his minor league career, Pujols struck out more than he walked just 1 time, his rookie season of 2001. He actually had 'just' a .297 BAbip in '10, compared to his .314 career BAbip. He posted his regular 21% LD% and a 15.6 HR/FB that was pretty much his career average of 15.7% as well. Pujols is just such a consistent player. There's no reason to think he won't continue his consistency in 2011.Defensively however, Pujols posted a -0.2 dWAR, second lowest of his career. I can't really understand why (he had a .998 Fld% and ridiculously above-average range, posting 10.53 RF/9 and a 10.29 RF/G compared to the league averages of 6.52 and 6.37 respectively), but he somehow posted just a 1.5 UZR (Pujols posted a 24.7 UZR in 2007, just as a means of comparison). Even if he was actually sub-par defensively, Pujols is obviously still a amazing player. There's just no comparison between him and any other player to him offensively. Albert Pujols is still an amazing player for the Cardinals.
Pujols has averaged 146 games per season in his career, so obviously, the Cardinals don't have a true first base backup. On those couple days this season in which Pujols needs a day off, or if and when he gets hurt (he has been dealing with elbow problems), he will be backed up by either Lance Berkman or Allen Craig if he makes the team. I'll address Berkman when I talk about right field. Craig, who has an opportunity to make the team as a backup at all four corner positions, is a 26 year old utility player who was primarily a third baseman and left fielder in the minors, but did play 93 games at first base, posting a .994 Fld%. Craig hit .320 in the minors in '10 with 24 doubles, 14 homers, 81 RBI, and a .389 OBP in just 83 minor league games. He posted a .986 Fld% in left field, a .990 Fld% at first base, and just an .800 Fld% in 6 games in left field. In the majors, Craig hit .246 (.282 BAbip) with 7 doubles, 4 homers, 18 RBI, and a .298 OBP in 44 games, posting a perfect 1.000 Fld% in 30 games in right field (with below-average range), 5 games in left field, and 5 games in right field, but he posted a .000 Fld% in 2 games in third base, making an error on his only fielding chance. (He also played one game at second base, but he didn't have a single ball hit to him.) Those stats mean almost nothing; we'll have to see how Craig does in a full season as a backup. Craig has hit .322 the last two seasons at Triple-A (although he did have a .351 BAbip), so you would think that either the Cardinals promote him to the majors now, or maybe give him one more year at Triple-A so he could possibly take over for Pujols at first base in 2012. Maybe the Cardinals should keep Craig in the minors for most of 2011, considering they have Nick Punto, when healthy, to back up David Freese at 3rd base, and Jon Jay to be the outfield backup. Craig will probably make the team anyway, if only because the Cardinals have no real 5th outfielder. The Cardinals have depth behind Pujols if they ever need to use it.
Second base:
31 year old Skip Schumaker is lined up to be the Cardinals' starting second baseman for the third year in a row. Schumaker actually had a pretty bad year in '10, hitting .265 with 18 doubles, 5 homers, 42 RBI, 5 stolen bases, and a .328 OBP in 137 games. Schumaker wasn't good in any of those stats. Schumaker even had a .294 BAbip! But, that .294 BAbip came along with a 22% LD%, so it should have been higher. Schumaker owns a 21% career LD%, and accordingly, he owns a .322 career BAbip. Maybe when that evens out, Schumaker will hit .300 again in 2011 (he hit .300 each season from '07 to '09). (Schumaker's 3.0% HR/FB was right around his career average of 3.2%.) Even if Schumaker hits .300 though, he still wouldn't be more than a decent player, considering he has no power and no speed. But, Schumaker is great defensively, right? Well, Schumaker was once a very good defensive outfielder, but since being converted to second base, he's been a below-average defender, posting a .978 Fld% (league average .984), although he has shown good range (4.96 RF/9 compared to league average of 4.82). In two seasons at second base, he owns a combined -22.8 UZR. Schumaker is a decent player overall at best and because of him, the Cardinals have a questionable situation at second base.
Tyler Greene and Daniel Descalso will likely make the Astros' big league roster to begin the year (with Punto hurt), and you have to wonder whether one of them could eventually wrestle the starting second base job from the unimpressive Schumaker. Before looking at any other stats, you would have to give Descalso a leg up because he has logged 343 professional games at second base compared to Greene's 22, all in the majors.
Greene, 27, appeared in 44 major league games in '10, hitting just .221 with 3 doubles, 2 homers, 10 RBI, 2 stolen bases, and a .328 OBP. It was a limited sample size, but he was bad. He had just a .266 BAbip despite a 20% LD%, but he had just a 65% IP%, so less hits had an opportunity to drop in. Defensively, he was even worse, posting a .934 Fld% at SS, albeit with good range, a .935 Fld% at second base with bad range, and a .929 Fld% at third base with good range. Even though he showed good range at short and third, his fielding percentages were so bad that it didn't even matter. At Triple-AMemphis in '10, Greene hit .284 with 21 doubles, 9 homers, 34 RBI, 12 stolen bases, and a .355 OBP in 82 games. But, he needed a .373 BAbip to hit .284. Defensively, Greene posted above-average range at short, but he again posted a below-average .963 Fld%. Green could be a decent backup for the Cards, but it doesn't seem like he could be a starter for any major league team right now.
Descalso, 24, appeared in 11 major league games in '10, hitting .265 with 2 doubles, 4 RBI, and a .324 OBP. He was perfect in 9 games at third base and 1 at shortstop. In the minors in '10, Descalso hit .282 at Triple-A Memphis with 32 doubles, 9 homers, 71 RBI, 86 runs, 8 stolen bases, and a .350 OBP in 116 games. Descalso struck out 48 times and walked 47 times, an impressive if not quite Pujols-esque ratio. He also had a .295 BAbip, so his .282 BA was no fluke. He posted a below-average .973 Fld% at second base, but with great range, and he also posted an 1.000 Fld% in 6 games at first base. Descalso seems like he could be a better player than Schumaker. He'll have an opportunity to prove himself at the big league level while Nick Punto is out, and if he can show some flashes of brilliance, maybe he'll have an opportunity to remain on the big league club and challenge Schumaker for the second base job. Daniel Descalso could be a good player for the Cardinals in the coming years. Between Greene and Descalso, the Cardinals have good depth behind Schumaker at second base, but again, Schumaker is a questionable starter.
Third base:
David Freese is healthy again, and he has another opportunity to seize the Cardinals' third base job. Up until June 27th, 2010, Freese, who will turn 28 in late April, was doing pretty well as the Cardinals' third baseman, hitting .296 with 12 doubles, 4 homers, 36 RBI, and a .361 OBP in 70 games. Freese had a crazy .376 BAbip, but that was actually because of an incredible 23% LD%. Also, Freese did have a .353 BAbip in the minors. He was unlucky though to have a 4.6% HR/FB. Defensively, Freese posted a .950 Fld% at third base (league average .951), but showed very good range. Everything was going well for Freese in his rookie season. But, on June 27th, Freese injured his right ankle. And while on a rehab assignment, he dropped a weight on his left foot, and later re-injured his right ankle. Those injuries kept him out the rest of the season. Freese seems like he's a good player, but he has to stay healthy. If you project Freese's 2010 stats over a full season (he played in 70 of the team's 75 games, so these projections are for 151 games), he would have hit .296 with 26 doubles, 9 homers, 78 RBI, and a .361 OBP, although obviously he could've had a hot month or an extended slump that could have changed his stats quite a bit. Those are certainly good stats. David Freese, if he can stay healthy, will be a good player for the Cardinals in 2011.
Freese will be backed up by Nick Punto when healthy, Allen Craig, and Daniel Descalso. Punto, 33, hit .238 for the Twins in '10, with 11 doubles, 1 homer, 20 RBI, 6 stolen bases, and a .313 OBP in 88 games. He was a starter most of the first half of the year before being replaced by Danny Valencia. Defensively, he showed above-average range at third base, shortstop, and second base, but while he posted a perfect 1.000 Fld% at third base, he posted a .962 Fld% at shortstop and just a .936 Fld% at second base. As I've referred to several times already, right at the beginning of spring training Punto suffered a sports hernia injury that required surgery. He'll be out until late April. While Punto's out, as I've mentioned, Tyler Greene and Daniel Descalso have an opportunity to prove themselves at the big league level, and since Punto isn't an incredible player himself, I wouldn't be all that surprised if Punto is traded not too long after he comes back if either Greene or Descalso shows an ability to be a utility player of Punto's level and more. The good news for the Cardinals as that even though Freese may be a fragile player, they have good depth behind him.
Shortstop:
31 year old middle infielder Ryan Theriot, acquired from the Dodgers this offseason for Blake Hawksworth, had a decent offensive season in 2010, hitting .270 with 15 doubles, 2 homers, 29 RBI, 20 stolen bases, and a .321 OBP in 150 games between the Cubs and Dodgers. Theriot is in the middle of a bad 3-year trend in which his BA has gone done each year (.307 in '08 to .284 in '09, to .270 in '10), and so have his hits (178 to 171 to 158), runs (85 to 81 to 72), stolen bases (22 to 21 to 20), and OBP (.387 to .343 to .321). What's been going on? Those were Theriot's age 28, 29, and 30 seasons, which were supposed to be his prime! Why did he begin to decline so early? Well, in turns out that Theriot's BAbip has been going down as well, going from down from .339 in '08 to .323 in '09 to .305 in '10. And why has that been happening? A decrease in LD% from 22% to 19% to 18%. In addition Theriot's IF/FB has gone up from 5% to 6% to 9%, which isn't that big of a deal, but it just make his BA and BAbip a bit worse. Is there any chance that Theriot rebounds in 2011? Well, one of Theriot's stats from the last three seasons would give you hope: IP%. Theriot's IP% went from 79% in 2008 to 75% in 2009, up to 80% in 2010. Theriot hit so many balls in play, but only an average amount found holes. Maybe if he could put up such a high IP% again, he'll get a bit more lucky and have a BAbip that's around .320 again. If he can put up a .320 BAbip again, he'll at least hit .280 again, which would be an improvement. Theriot isn't a great offensive player, but the Cardinals obviously want everything they can get from him offensively. Defensively in 2010, Theriot posted above average fielding percentages at second base and shortstop, .986 and .974 respectively. But, he showed below average range at both positions. That's also been Theriot's trend for his career- he owns above-average .987 and .976 fielding percentages at second base and shortstop respectively, but again he has shown below-average range. When you couple Theriot's fringy offense with his below-average defense, it becomes pretty clear that he's nothing more than a decent player. Maybe he's better than the other options the Cardinals had (Brenden Ryan, who has since been traded to the Mariners, and I guess Greene [Descalso doesn't really play shortstop]), but he's still not that great of a player. He'll be backed up by Greene and Punto when he comes back. Ryan Theriot will be a decent player overall for the Cardinals in '10, but nothing more.
Left Field:
Matt Holliday will be patroling left field for the Cardinals again in '11, just as he will until 2016. Holliday, now 31 years old, hit .312 in '10 with 45 doubles, 28 homers, 103 RBI, 95 runs, 186 hits, and a .390 OBP in 158 games. Holliday had a .331 BAbip, actually lower than his career BAbip of .348, despite his regular 21% LD%. He also had an 11.2% HR/FB compared to his career average of 11.6% (if it had been 11.6%, he would of had 29 homers). Holliday just had a great year as usual for him. Defensively, Holliday was slightly above-average, posting a .989 Fld% compared to the league average of .985 with average range (1.80 RF/9 compared to the league average of 1.82). He also had 8 outfield assists. Holliday's defense doesn't hold him back at all (well, most of the time- 2009 NLDS comes to mind). He's not quite Pujols, but he's certainly a great player in his own right and deserving of that 7 year, 120 million dollar contract that the Cardinals gave him.
Holliday will be backed up by Allen Craig and Jon Jay. Jay, who will turn 26 on March 15th, made his major league debut in '10, and played very well for a backup, hitting .300 with 19 doubles, 4 homers, 27 RBI, and a .359 OBP in 105 games. Jay had his struggles in right field, posting a .986 Fld% that was exactly the league average with poor range, but he was perfect in centerfield while showing great range, and he was also perfect in 9 games in left field. Jay was primarily a centerfielder in the minors (179 games), and he also played quite a bit of left field (117 games), but he only played 27 minor league games in right field before playing 61 major league games there in '10. Hopefully as he adjusts to the position, he'll be as great there as he is in centerfield in right field. Jay is a really good backup. Add Craig into the mix, and the Cardinals have nice depth behind Holliday.
Centerfield:
24 year old Cardinals centerfielder Colby Rasmus has been the subject of controversy regarding his relationship with Cardinals manager Tony La Russa. Is he a good enough player to be worth the controversy? Rasmus had a pretty good year in '10, hitting .276 with 28 doubles, 23 homers, 66 RBI, 85 runs, 12 stolen bases, and a .361 OBP in 144 games. Rasmus needed a .354 BAbip to hit .276 because he strikes out so darn much (148 K's, 27.7% of his plate appearances compared to the MLB average of 18.2%). Rasmus did have a 22% LD%, but he had an awful 56% IP%. Rasmus simply doesn't hit the ball on the ground. He had a crazy 47.8% fly ball percentage (according to fangraphs.com, but fangraphs and baseball-reference.com, which I've been using for stats otherwise in this post, differ in several stats, so maybe that percentage is somewhat off compared to baseball-reference's 22% LD% for Rasmus). Rasmus' crazy amount of fly balls paid off with an 11.7% HR/FB and a 42% X/H% (percentage of hits that went for extra bases) compared to the MLB average of 33%. Rasmus is the kind of player that could hit 25 homers a season for a long time, but the problem with him is that he'll never hit .300, especially when his BAbip returns to neutral (considering his 22% LD%, maybe that's around .320). Not to mention RBI's. Rasmus batted in the 5th hole for the Cardinals in half of his 144 games in '10, yet he drove in just 66 runs. Rasmus drove in 43 runs out of the 5th hole in 72 games, but just 23 runs in the 72 other games he played, despite playing 26 games in the 2-3-4 spots in the order (he drove in just 4 combined runs in those games). Of Rasmus' 23 homers, 10 of them were solo shots, including 8 to lead off innings.Intrestingly, not only did Rasmus hit 10 bases empty homers compared to 13 homers with runners on base, but also he hit .294 with the bases empty compared to .255 with runners on base and .254 with runners in scoring postion. Most players hit as many or more solo shots as homers with runners on base anyway, but you have to worry about the .255 average with men on base. They have to hope it's a fluke. If it was, you should expect 80 or more RBI's from Rasmus in 2010. It's a strange situation with Rasmus, but you have to think he'll start driving in more runs from here on out. Defensively, Rasmus was pretty bad, posting a below-average .981 Fld% in centerfield with awful range (2.13 RF/9 compared to league average of 2.59) and just 1 assist. Defense might be more of a worry for Rasmus than offense. But, if he can start driving in more runs, it would be easier to deal with his glove-work. He'll be backed up by Jay and Greene. Colby Rasmus is a pretty good player overall for the Cardinals.
Right field:
Lance Berkman, signed by the Cardinals this offseason to a 1 year, 8 million dollar contract, is lined up to do something he hasn't done since 2004: play the outfield full-time. Berkman, 35, hit .248 in '10 with 23 doubles, 14 homers, 58 RBI, and a .368 OBP in 122 games between the Astros and Yankees. Berkman had a .282 BAbip in '10, way down from his .317 career BAbip, but that was because of a 17% LD%. His 10.4 HR/FB also compared unfavorably to his 14.7 career HR/FB, and in fact, it was the lowest of his career. Berkman isn't the player he used to be, but the Cardinals hope he can at least be a decent offensive player. Defensively though, Berkman owns just a .970 Fld% with below-average range in 264 games, most of which coming when he was 28 and younger. What the heck are the Cardinals thinking? But, the problem from them is that Matt Holliday has never played right field as a pro (he did play third base in the minors, and he was completely awful posting just an .879 Fld%). Berkman is stuck playing right field, and I suspect we'll see a lot of Allen Craig and Jon Jay, Berkman's backups at the end of games. Berkman is just a decent player at this point of his career.
Starting rotation:
Entering 2011, the Cardinals had two aces compared to the Phillies' full slate of four. Now, they're down to 1. Chris Carpenter, who will turn 36 in late April, went 16-9 in '10 with a 3.22 ERA and 179 K's compared to 63 walks in 35 starts and 235 IP. He allowed 214 hits, 8.2 per 9, and 21 homers allowed, 0.8 per 9. It wasn't as good of a year for Carpenter as he had in '09, when he finished 2nd in the NL Cy Young voting after going 17-4 with a 2.24 ERA. What was the difference? Well, his BAbip went up from .274 to .282, but that's not a big difference at all. His LD% went up from 17% to 18%. The big differences from Carpenter was HR/FB, which doubled from 3.4% in '09 to 6.7% in '10, and LOB%, which decreased from 79.5% in '09 to 73.3% in '10. Carpenter was a little bit luckier in 2009 than in 2010, when things evened out for him. Still, a 3.22 ERA is pretty good. Carpenter was a decent hitting pitcher in '10, hitting .111 with a homer, 4 RBI, and 10 sac bunts. Carpenter might not be the true ace he used to be anymore, but he's still a very good pitcher for the Cardinals.
24 year old lefty Jaime Garcia is coming off an outstanding rookie season. Garcia finished third in the NL Rookie of the Year voting behind Buster Posey and Jason Heyward, going 13-8 with a 2.70 ERA and 132 K's compared to 64 walks in 28 starts and 163.1 IP. He allowed 151 hits, an 8.3 H/9, and 9 homers, a great ratio of 0.5 per 9. Is Garcia primed for an encore in 2011, or is he due for a sophomore slump? Well, after looking at his BAbip in 2010 (.293), you get the feeling that Garcia wasn't lucky in '10. He also allowed a 20% LD% and a 70% IP% that were right around the league average. Another big factor for Garcia was a 55.9% GB%. But, Garcia allowed just a 4.7% HR/FB, so he was certainly lucky in that regard. When everything evens out, it's unlikely that Garcia will post an ERA under 3.00 again in '10. But, if he can manage a low-3.00's ERA, that would be fine for the Cardinals. Garcia is no automatic out, considering he hit .185 in '10 with 2 RBI and 4 sac bunts. With Wainwright hurt, the Cardinals need some pitchers to step up. Jaime Garica needs to be one of those guys.
On July 31st of 2010, Jake Westbrook was a struggling pitcher for the Indians, having gone 6-7 in his first 21 starts of the season with a 4.65 ERA. But, that day he was traded to the Cardinals, where he went 4-4 with a 3.48 ERA in 12 starts the rest of the season. The Cardinals resigned the 33 year old sinker-baller this offseason, hoping he can continue his nice second half. Overall in 2010, Westbrook went 10-11 with a 4.22 ERA and 128 K's compared to 68 walks in 33 starts and 202.2 IP. He allowed 203 hits, almost exactly a hit per inning at 9.0 per 9, and 20 homers, 0.9 per 9. Westbrook allowed a .290 BAbip in '10, which might have actually been a bit unlucky considering Westbrook allowed just a 16% LD%. He did allow a 73% IP%, as expected from a sinker-baller. He had a 56.4% GB%. In terms of those stats, you would think that Westbrook was just unlucky in '10, but Westbrook allowed an 8.0% HR/FB that was right around the MLB average, yet he still allowed 20 homers. Westbrook wasn't unlucky in '10 to have a 4.22 ERA. He is what he is, just a pretty good pitcher, nothing better. Westbrook hit .111 with 1 RBI and 1 sac bunt in '10, showing that he's still an AL pitcher at heart. Jake Westbrook is a decent third starter for the Cardinals.
The four candidates for the last two spots in the Cardinals' rotation are Kyle Lohse, Kyle McClellan, Brandon Dickson, and Lance Lynn.
Kyle Lohse, 32, struggled through a forearm injury in '10, going 4-8 with a 6.55 ERA and 54 K's compared to 35 walks in 18 starts and 92 IP. He allowed an incredible 129 hits, a horrible 12.6 H/9, and 9 homers, a 0.9 HR/9. When you delve deeper into the stats, the first thing you notice is that Lohse allowed a crazy .369 BAbip. But, that had to be expected considering he allowed a 23% LD%. Lohse also allowed a 75% IP%. All those stats are bad enough, but in addition Lohse was actually helped out by a relatively low HR/FB (5.3%). Is there any hope for Lohse? Yes, for three reasons. First off, Lohse will be healthy in '10 and that will obviously help his performance. But also, there are two stats that seem to indicate that Lohse will rebound in 2011: FIP and LOB%. The past three seasons, Lohse has gone from 15-6 with a 3.78 ERA in 2008 to 6-10 with a 4.74 ERA to 4-8 with a 6.55 ERA in '10. Over that period of time, Lohse's LOB% (percentage of baserunners allowed that were stranded on base) fell from 73.6% to 67.1% to 59.6%. Of course, if you strand less runners, you have a worse ERA. LOB% is a lot of luck, so Lohse was just really unlucky in 2010. (For example, if a pitcher allows a leadoff single or a single with two outs, he still allowed a single, but the leadoff single is the start to a big inning while if the pitcher allows a 2-out single, he's one out away from getting out of the inning and stranding the runner.) The other stat to look at with Lohse was his FIP, the fielding independent equivalent of his ERA. When Lohse had a 3.78 ERA in '08, he had a 3.89 FIP. When his ERA jumped up to 4.74 in '09, he had a 4.55 FIP. But in '10, even though his ERA went all the way up to 6.55, Lohse actually had a 4.42 FIP. Lohse has been great so far in spring training, posting a 1.38 ERA, 9 K's, and no walks in 3 starts and 13 IP. The Cardinals hope everything evens out for Lohse in 2011, and he has a decent year for them.
After an outstanding year in the bullpen in '10, the Cardinals are considering making 26 year old right-hander Kyle McClellan into a starter. Is the move worth it and will will it work out? McClellan was pretty darn good in '10, going 1-4 with a 2.27 ERA, 60 K's (7.2 K/9), 23 walks (2.7 BB/9), 58 hits allowed (6.9 H/9), 9 homers allowed (1.1 HR/9), 19 holds, and 2 saves in 68 RA's and 75.1 IP. But, McClellan allowed just a .236 BAbip in 2010. Was he just really lucky? Actually no. McClellan allowed just a 15% LD%, a 68% IP%, and he managed a 50.7% GB%. McClellan was lucky to have a .236 BAbip in '10, but not by that much. However, McClellan was unlucky in terms of HR/FB, allowing a 9.1% HR/FB. When everything evens out, McClellan could still have an ERA under 2.50 in '11. But wait- that's what he would do as a reliever. McClellan could clearly be an effective middle reliever for the Cardinals in '10 if he doesn't pull on rotation spot, but how will he do if he does pull a C.J. Wilson and become a starter? First of all, does McClellan have any starting experience? Well, McClellan has appeared in 202 major league games, all in relief. In the minors though, 51 of McClellans' 103 appearances were starts. From 2002 through 2006, McClellan was primarily a starter, starting 50 games compared to 13 in relief between Low-A and Rookie ball. He managed just a 5.27 ERA, with just a 5.9 K/9, a 2.9 BB/9, a 10.1 h/9, and a 0.8 HR/9. He never even had a winning season, going just 8-25 overall. He also had a .238 BAbip, so that wasn't his problem. If that was the McClellan that the Cardinals got as a starter, that would be a disaster. But, McClellan is obviously a different pitcher now. We'll have to see what happens with McClellan. The good news for him is that he's matching Lohse start for start, posting a 1.29 ERA with 4 K's and 1 walk in 2 starts and 7 IP. Kyle McClellan is will definitely be on the Cardinals' big league roster in '10 in some capacity, either as a reliever or as a starter, and he the potential to succeed in either role.
Brandon Dickson is another 26 year old right-hander, but while Lohse was being a middle reliever for the Cardinals the past three seasons, Dickson was continuing his gradual progression through the minors, advancing from High-A in 2008 to Triple-A in 2010. Dickson is an organizational arm that unexpectedly never slowed down as he faced harder and harder competition. Dickson was signed by the Cardinals as an undrafted free agent out of Division II Tusculum College in 2006. The Cardinals sent the 21 year old Dickson to Rookie-level Johnson City in 2006, and he performed exactly the way you would think he would, posting a 6.35 ERA in 9 relief apperances. But since then, Dickson has been an effective pitcher, posting a 3.65 ERA and averaging 150.2 IP per season. That sounds like a good innings-eating 4th starter to me (how many minor pitchers in the past 50 years have thrown four 140 inning seasons in the minors?). What's pretty amazing is that Dickson managed an ERA under 4.00 while allowing a 9.7 H/9. Dickson also did that while striking out just 6.3 per 9, but he kept the walks and homers down to 2.9 per 9 and 0.6 per 9 respectively. In 2010 at Triple-A Memphis, Dickson had his best season in the minors, going 11-8 with a career-best 3.23 ERA, a career-high 137 K's (his 7.4 K/9 was his highest since his brief 2006), and 53 walks (2.9 BB/9) in a career-high 27 starts, 1 relief appearance, and a career-high 167 IP. He did allow 180 hits, 9.7 per 9, but just 11 homers, 0.6 per 9. Dickson was even awarded The Cardinal Nation/Scout.com Minor League Starting Pitcher of the Year Award for pitchers in the Cardinals organization. Why did Dickson all of a sudden have his best season in the minors at Triple-A? Well, the three stats to look at would be BAbip, LOB%, and FIP the first of two of which are based around luck. Dickson had a .331 BAbip in '10, quite a bit above his .318 career BAbip. His LOB% was 72.8%, a bit higher than his 70.3 career LOB%, but not enough of a difference to make his ERA in '10 .47 lower than his career ERA. But what about his FIP? FIP isn't luck, since it's independent of fielders. Dickson managed a 3.53 FIP in '10 compared to his 3.82 career FIP. The primary reason for Dickson's career-best FIP was his career-best 2.58 K/BB ratio. That's the real reason for Dickson's success. While he might have been mildly lucky in terms of LOB%, Dickson really improved because he improved his strikeout rate while keeping his walk rate low. If Dickson can continue that trend he could be an effective pitcher at the back end of the Cardinals rotation. However, that may not be quite yet- Dickson has a 7.20 ERA so far in spring training, alllowing 7 runs (5 ER) on 9 hits and 2 walks while striking out 3 in 6 IP. Dickson might not make the Cardinals out of spring training, but he's certain to make his big league debut sometime during the 2011 season. Brandon Dickson will be an interesting prospect for the Cardinals in the near future, but he probably won't win either of the two starting spots that the Cardinals have available right now.
Lance Lynn, a right-hander starter who will turn 24 in May, was a supplemental-first round draft pick by the Cardinals out of the University of Mississippi in 2008, quite different from Dickson, who went to a Division II school and was undrafted. In 2008, Lynn, then 21, debuted at Short Season-A Batavia, and dominated his competition, going 1-0 with a 0.96 ERA, 22 K's (10.6 K/9), and 4 walks (1.9 BB/9) in 4 starts, 2 RA's, and 18.2 IP. He allowed just 12 hits, 5.8 per 9, and no homers (obviously 0.0 per 9). He was so good that he even made 2 starts at Low-A Quad Cities, going 0-1 with a 2.25 ERA in 2 starts, striking out 2 and walking 7 in 8 IP. But, Lynn's best performances were yet to come. In 2009, Lynn started the season at High-A Palm Beach, but after posting a 2.30 ERA and 17 K's in 2 starts, 3 relief appearances, and 15.2 IP, the Cardinals promoted him straight to Double-A Springfield. With Springfield, Lynn continued his hot streak, going 11-4 with a 2.92 ERA, 98 K's (7.0 K/9), 51 walks (3.6 BB/9), 117 hits allowed (8.3 H/9), and just 5 homers allowed (0.4 HR/9) in 22 starts and 126.1 IP. Wait a second- you have to notice that Lynn's strikeout rate, walk rate, and hit rate were pedestrian at best. He wasn't really that great at all! Why did he do so well? He did have a .299 BAbip, right around the average, but he had a 73.3% LOB%. The clear indicator of that Lynn's ERA was an illusion though, was his 3.47 FIP. He was good, but certainly not great. Nevertheless, the Cardinals sent him up to Triple-A Memphis for a start, and he allowed 2 runs on 5 hits in 6.2 IP, striking out 9 and walking 3, to end his season. On the year, Lynn went 11-4 with a 2.85 ERA, 124 Ks (7.5 K/9), 57 walks (3.5 BB/9), 138 hits allowed (8.4 H/9), and 5 homers allowed (0.3 HR/9) in 25 starts, 3 relief appearances, and 148.2 IP. Lynn was so good that he was ranked the Cardinals' 3rd-best prospect entering 2010, and he was the Scout.com/The Cardinal Nation System Starting Pitcher of the Year for 2009 (again, among Cardinals prospects). Still, some of those Double-A numbers just had to worrying. Those worries came into fruition in 2010. Lynn spent all of 2010 at Memphis, and needless to say, he did not meet expectations. Lynn went 13-10 with a 4.77 ERA, 141 K's (7.7 K/9), 62 walks (3.4 BB/9), 164 hits allowed (9.0 H/9), and 21 homers allowed (a 1.2 HR/9 that was 4 times his '09 HR/9) in 29 starts and 164 IP. He was a decent innings eater, but he started allowing homers and a hit per inning. What happened? Well, while his BAbip stayed at .300, Lynn's LOB% went down to 67.5%, and most worrisome, his FIP ballooned to 4.43. Lynn just got unlucky with his LOB%, and his FIP going up was due to his luck running out in terms of homers allowed (I wish some website had HR/FB minor leaguers). Either way, Lynn will have a significant problem going forward if he can't get that homer rate down. Lynn has a 5.14 ERA in 3 spring training appearances spanning 7 IP, allowing 4 runs on 6 hits, striking out 5 and walking 4. Lance Lynn was a great prospect, but unless he fixes his homer problem, he may never spend significant time in the majors for the Cardinals. No chance Lynn appears in any major league games other than in September unless several more pitchers get hurt.
It's pretty clear that Lohse and McClellan should be the Cardinals' 4th and 5th starters in '10, although if the Cardinals feel that McClellan would be better suited in the bullpen, Dickson could theoretically sneak into the rotation.
Bullpen:
Jason Motte had an outstanding season as a middle reliever for the Cardinals in '10, going 4-2 with a 2.24 ERA, 54 K's (9.3 K/9), 18 walks (3.1 BB/9), 41 hits allowed (7.1 H/9), 5 homers allowed (0.9 HR/9), 12 holds, and 2 saves in 56 relief appearances (RA's) and 52.1 IP. Was he legitimately good, or was he one of the many middle relievers who have one great year because of a complete fluke and then collapse? Keep in mind that Motte had a 4.76 ERA in 69 major league relief appearances in '09. Motte was mildly lucky in '10 in terms of BAbip, allowing a .277 BAbip, but that BAbip wasn't too far off from what it should have been, considering Motte allowed a 16% LD% in '10. He allowed a good 63% IP%, and his HR/FB was right around the league average at 7.0%. From these stats, Motte wasn't really lucky at all! However, Motte had a crazy 88.5% LOB% compared to the league average of 72.0%. When Motte had a 73.5 LOB% in '09, he had the aforementioned 4.76 ERA. When everything evens out, Motte will be lucky to post an ERA under 3.00. (By the way, he had a 3.24 FIP in '10, so Motte posting an ERA right around there is certainly within the realm of possibility.) Jason Motte is a decent reliever for the Cardinals, but there's a very slim chance that his 2011 ERA is with half a run of his 2.25 ERA in '10.
37 year old left-hander Trever Miller had a halfway decent season as the Cardinals' lefty specialist in '10, going 0-1 with a 4.00 ERA, 22 K's (5.5 K/9), 16 walks (4.0 BB/9), 30 hits allowed (7.5 H/9), 2 homers allowed (0.5 HR/9), and 11 holds in 57 RA's and in typical left specialist fashion, just 36 IP. You sort of want to ask why Miller's ERA went up from 2.06 in '09 for the Cardinals to 4.00 in '10, but then again, all of Miller's season are such a limited sample size (he hasn't even pitched 55 innings in a season since 2002 in the minors), but Miller's BAbip did go up from .239 to .257 from '09 to '10, and his FIP went up from 3.37 to 4.08 because his K/9 went down from 9.5 to 5.5. The real reason though, was a decrease in LOB% from 89.2% to 68.6%. It would appear that Trever Miller probably won't will rebound in 2011, but it doesn't really matter because as long as his ERA is reasonable, he'll be a decent reliever for the Cardinals.
27 year old righty Mitchell Boggs had a decent in the Cardinals' bullpen in '10, going 2-3 with a 3.61 ERA, 52 K's (7.0 K/9), 27 walks (3.6 BB/9), 60 hits allowed (8.0 H/9), 5 homers allowed (0.7 HR/9), and 6 holds in 61 RA's and 67.1 IP. Boggs allowed a .285 BAbip despite a 15% LD%, a 52.8 GB%, and a 68% IP%. He had a 73.8% LOB%, so he wasn't lucky in that regard, and he also had a 6.2% HR/FB, so he wasn't too lucky there either (maybe add in 1 or 2 homers to his season total, which wouldn't have been an enormous deal). Boggs had a 3.81 FIP, primarily because he didn't have a 2 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio. If he can fix that, maybe he could be a bit better in 2011. Best case scenario, he posts a high-2.00's ERA for the Cardinals, but even if he did, it would be a fluke because he's just a decent reliever. Mitchell Boggs is a decent reliever for the Cardinals.
33 year old lefty Brian Tallet was awful for the Blue Jays in '10, going 26 with a 6.40 ERA,, 53 K's (6.2 K/9), 38 walks (4.4 BB/9), 84 hits allowed (9.8 H/9), 20 homers allowed (2.3 HR/9), and 1 hold in 29 RA's, 5 starts, and 77.1 IP. He put up those stats while allowing just a .267 BAbip (despite a 15% LD% and 67% IP%), but his real problem was a crazy 15.2% HR/FB. He also had just a 67.2% LOB%. When everything evens out, there's no way Tallet will be as bad as he was in '10 again in '11. While Tallet probably won't return to his '08 levels (2.88 ERA in 51 RA's), maybe he could return to his '07 levels. That year, he had a 3.47 ERA in 48 RA's. (Tallet spent 2009 mostly as a starter.) You never know with middle relievers, but Tallet should be a decent cog in the Cardinals' bullpen in 2011.
In the twilight of his career, 40 year old right-hander Miguel Batista has remade himself into a decent middle reliever. The one-time 16 game winner went 1-2 for the Nationals in '10 with a 3.70 ERA, 55 K's (6.0 K/9), 39 walks (4.2 BB/9), 71 hits allowed (7.7 H/9), 9 homers allowed (1.0 HR/9), 2 holds, and 2 saves in 57 RA's, 1 start, and 82.2 IP. But, Batista allowed just a .257 BAbip, even though he had a 17% LD% and a league-average 69% IP%. Batista did have a 54% GB%, but he also had a 77.2% LOB%. Batista also had an 8.2% HR/FB that was right around the league average. Because of his poor strikeout to walk ratios and homer rate, Batista had a bad 4.76 FIP. Also, he appeared in very few pressure situations, appearing in just 4 save situations, and posting a 0.66 aLI (average leverage index), his lowest since 1966. (Leverage is pressure, aLI is the average pressure a pitcher goes through during a game. 1.00 is average.) Batista got very lucky in '10, and there's almost no chance he posts an ERA under 4.00 in 2011. At best, Miguel Batista is a decent reliver for the Cardinals.
25 year old right-hander Fernando Salas had a decent year as a reliever for the Cardinals, going 0-0 with a 3.52 ERA, 29 K's (8.5 K/9),15 walks (4.4 BB/9), 28 hits allowed (8.2 H/9), and 4 homers allowed (1.2 HR/9), and 1 hold in 27 RA's and 30.2 IP. He managed a decent ERA, but you can't like his strikeout to walk ratio that was under 2 to 1, or his 1.2 HR/9. Because of all these factors, Salas had just a 4.35 FIP. At least he kept his hits allowed down with a 15% LD% and a 63% IP% (he had a .286 BAbip). But, at least in terms of homers allowed, Salas was somewhat unlucky, allowing a 9.5% HR/FB. Even so, when everything evens out in 2011, Salas will have a worse year. Maybe he could sneak his ERA under 4.00, but not much better than that. Salas is just another decent reliever for the Cardinals.
Closer:
38 year old right-handed reliever Ryan Franklin had a halfway decent year as the Cardinals' closer in '10, going 6-2 with a 3.46 ERA, 42 K's (5.8 K/9), 10 walks (1.4 BB/9), 57 hits allowed (7.9 H/9), 7 homers allowed (1.0 HR/9), and 27 saves (2 blown saves) in 59 RA's and 65 IP. That was a far cry from his great 2009 season, when he posted a 1.92 ERA and saves 30 games in 62 RA's. What happened? Interestingly, Franklin's BAbip actually went down from .263 to .250 from '09 to '10. Franklin's LD% went up down to 21% to 20%, but his IP% went up from 72% to 76%. His GB% went down from 45.6% to 44.7%. Franklin's most notable increase among 'common' stats from '09 to '10 was HR/9, from 0.3 to 1.0. That was because of an increase in HR/FB from 2.5% to 7.3%. But, Franklin's real problem was LOB%. His LOB% shot down from 85.7% to 75.2%. Add that in to his FIP in '10 (3.83, up from 3.31 in '09), and that's how Franklin managed a 3.46 ERA. Franklin didn't have that bad of a year, but considering he doesn't strike anybody out, he has to maintain a good strand rate to remain a good pitcher. But, considering he's only posted one season with an ERA under 2.00 (2009), and that was the only year he had an 85% LOB%, there's no reason to think Franklin will be able to post an ERA under 2.00 in '11 (or for that matter, an 85% LOB%). The Cardinals just have to hope that Franklin's homer rate goes down and that he can at least post an ERA under 3.00 in 2011. Unfortunately for them, Franklin's HR/FB was actually below neutral in 2010. Ryan Franklin is a halfway-decent closer for the Cardinals.
Overview:
The Cardinals' offense has Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday as a part of it, but other than those two, it's really pretty bad. The Cardinals have just a pretty good offense. After Yadier Molina, they have a bad defense as well. Their rotation without Wainwright is average at best, and they have a bad bullpen. That does not sound like a good team me. After the Cardinals' finish this year, Pujols won't have second thoughts about not giving the Cardinals a hometown discount.
2010 record: 86-76
Prediction: 79-83, 4th in NL Central
The Cardinals will make the playoffs if...Pujols and Holliday have monster years, Freese stays healthy, Carpenter stays healthy and hurls a Cy Young-worthy year, Jaime Garcia avoids any sort of sophomore slump, Kyle Lohse and Kyle McClellan have pretty good seasons as the Cardinals 4th and 5th starters, the bullpen doesn't completely collapse, and Ryan Franklin saves 40 games for the first time in his career.
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