The Dodgers were a huge disappointment in 2010, finishing under .500 and going through the Manny and McCourt fiascoes. Will they get back to contending in 2011?
Catcher: After non-tendering Russell Martin, the Dodgers resigned Rod Barajas to be their starting catcher (they acquired him off waivers in late August of 2010). In 2010 between the Mets and Dodgers, Barajas hit .240 with 14 doubles, 17 homers, 47 RBI, and a .284 OBP in 99 games, missing time with an oblique injury. The power numbers were OK, but his OBP was .043 lower than the league average. That's unacceptable. But, Barajas did have just a .236 BAbip, and accordingly, he hit .252 with a .299 OBP neutralized, which is a bit better. Defensively, Barajas posted a .996 Fld% with just 3 passed balls, but he posted just a 15% CS%. Although being a Yankee fan, I am biased, but Martin is definitely a better player than Barajas both offensively and defensively when healthy, particularly in OBP (.365 career OBP and .347 in '10) and CS% (31% for his career and 39% in '10). Martin will be backed up by Dioner Navarro, who hit just .194 in '10 and posted just a .986 Fld%, but he allowed no passed balls and posted a 39% CS%. If all else fails, the Dodgers could call up A.J. Ellis, who turns 30 in April. He has literally no power (career high in homers in the minors was 8 in '07), but he did hit .278 with 16 RBI and a .363 OBP in '10, and post a .996 Fld%, just 1 passed ball, and a 28% CS% in 44 games. I don't really trust Rod Barajas offensively or defensively for the Dodgers.
First base:
James Loney has never been a prototypical first baseman for the Dodgers. His career high in homers in the major leagues was 15 in 96 games in '07, especially strange because he's appeared in 158 or more games each of the past 3 seasons. Loney is much more of a gap-hitter. In '10, he hit .267 with 41 doubles (5th in the NL), just 10 homers, 88 RBI, 10 SB, and a .329 OBP in 161 games. Defensively, Loney is outstanding. He posted a .997 Fld% at first base in '10 with outstanding range. Loney will turn 27 in May. Overall, Loney is a pretty good first baseman, just not what you'd expect. He'll be backed up by John Lindsey, and Jay Gibbons, who we'll talk about as a right fielder. Lindsey is a career minor leaguer who finally made his big league debut in '10 at age 33 after 16 seasons in the minors, although he hit just .083. He was ridiculous in the minors in '10, hitting .353 at Triple-A with 41 doubles, 25 homers, 97 RBI, and a .400 OBP in 107 games. He's pretty much a disaster defensively, considering he posted just a .989 Fld% at first base in the minors in '10 (league average .993) and has just a .987 career Fld% at the position in the minors. The Dodgers don't get typical production out of their first baseman, Loney, but he's still a good player.
Second base:
The Dodgers were able to lure Juan Uribe away from the divison-rival and defending champion Giants by giving him a 3 year deal to him at age 30. Uribe is an enigma of a hitter. In '10, he hit 24 homers and drove in 85 runs. Sounds good, right? Well, he hit .248 with just a .310 OBP. For his career, he has hit .256 with 15 homers and 60 RBI per season, but just a .300 OBP. Accordingly, Uribe has never been an All-Star in 10 major league seasons. He's an OK player, but his OBP really holds him down. He managed a lower OBP than Mark Reynolds in 2010 (.320), and Reynolds hit just .198! He's a decent player, and he'll never be anything more. Defensively, he managed above-average fielding percentages at shortstop (.984), third base (.957), and second base (1.000), although he did have below average range at short. Uribe has a great .990 career Fld% at second for his career. Uribe will be backed up by the Dodgers' utility infielder, Jamey Carroll. Carroll, for a utilityman, is a surprisingly good hitter. He hit .291 in '10 with 15 doubles, 0 homers, 23 RBI, 12 stolen bases, and even a .379 OBP in 133 games. If he had any power, he'd be a great player. In 2006 for the Rockies, Carroll hit .300 with 23 doubles, 5 homers, 36 RBI, 5 triples, 84 runs, 10 SB, and a .377 OBP in 136 games. Carroll's real problem was that he couldn't make the majors until he was 28 years old, spending 7 full seasons in the minors. He'll be 37 on February 18th. Anyway, Carroll has a ridiculous .992 career Fld% at second base, including an NL leading .995 Fld% in that 2006 season. In 158 career games at shortstop, he has an unbelievable .989 career Fld% (Derek Jeter's .989 Fld% in '10 led the AL), although he is below average at third base (.945 Fld%) and left field (.971 Fld%). He's still a great utility player. Uribe is just a decent player because of his low OBP, so the Dodgers have just a decent situation at second base, although Carroll is a great backup.
Third Base:
There have been off-years, then there has been Casey Blake's 2010. It doesn't sound so bad- he hit .248 with 28 doubles, 17 homers, 64 RBI, 56 runs, and a .320 OBP in 146 games. He had a .407 slugging percentage. Baseball-Reference gave him a 1.6 offensive WAR. Compare to that to his '09 season. That year, he hit .280 with 25 doubles, 18 homers, 79 RBI, 84 runs, a .363 OBP, and a .468 slugging percentage in 139 games. Look at the difference in OPS: .727 in '10 versus .832 in '09. The .727 was below-average while the .832 was significantly above-average. Wow. Blake's BAbip did decrease from .327 to .305, but that wasn't the real reason that his numbers went down so much. In 2009, Blake struck out 116 times, 20.5% of his plate appearances. In 2010, he struck out 138 times, 24.2% of his plate appearances. That's a big difference. In addition, his walk rate decreased from 11.2% to 8.4%. The reason for the increase in strikeout rate and decrease in walk rate in '10 was that Blake hit just .194 whenever he was behind in the count, compared to .259 in '09. Will Blake rebound in '10? Well, first of all he's 37 years old. That's isn't a very common age for a bounce-back year. He wasn't unlucky, so it's not like his bound for a bounce-back year anyway. I doubt he'll ever get back to his '09 numbers. So, what should we expect from him? Well, Baseball-Reference has a list of 'Comparable Batters through 36' for Blake. Let's go through the players on the list. Melvin Mora has fallen off a cliff the past 2 seasons, hitting a combined 15 homers after mashing 23 in his age 36 season. He is still around, though. Hector Lopez was done after a bad age 36 season, hitting just .214. So were Aaron Boone, Charlie Hayes, Glenallen Hill, and Gary Ward. Bill Robinson had one more decent season. Kevin Millar lasted one more season. Jim Hickman was a backup in his final season at age 37. Jay Payton appeared in 20 games in '10 at age 37 (hitting .343) and he's currently a free agent. Blake is signed for at least one more year (there's an team option with a buyout for 2012), so I'm guessing he'll turn out like Mora has. He'll be a shadow of his former self. If he completely collapses, the Dodgers could slide Uribe to third and put in Carroll at second. But, what about the Dodgers' 3rd base prospects in the minors? With 2011 possibly being Blake's last year, it's hard not to mention some prospects that could step in for him in 2011 if necessary. The Dodgers have three 3rd base prospects who profile as at least decent players: Russ Mitchell, Pedro Baez, and Jorky Infante. Martin had a big league cup of coffee in '10, hitting .143 with a .140 OBP (he was thrown out trying to stretch, which raises your BA, but lowers your OBP). But, his first two major league hits were homers, and he drove in 4 runs. Defensively, he posted just a .895 Fld% at 3rd base (2 errors in 19 chances, and a .958 Fld% at 3 games first base, although he was perfect in left field in 3 games. You can throw out everything I just said because it's such a small sample size. Let's talk about Martin's stats at Triple-A in '10. He hit .315 with 38 doubles, 23 homers, 87 RBI, 97 runs, and a .363 OBP in 127 games. Defensively, he posted a .958 Fld% at third base, which would have been above-average in the 2010 NL. Those are obviously great stats, and Martin wasn't even on Baseball America's top 30 prospects list for the Dodgers in '10! He had a breakthrough season, and he could be a late bloomer at age 25 (26 on February 15th). Mitchell is a great feel-good story because he's a late bloomer and also because he won a sportsmanship award at the Arizona Fall League in '09. The end is near for Casey Blake, according to everything I said above. Unless Blake somehow bounces back in 2011, the Dodgers will need a new 3rd baseman, and sooner rather than later. If Blake collapses in mid-season, the Dodgers should call up Mitchell, as long as he's handling Triple-A again. Who knows? Maybe this kid will end up being something special. Maybe 2010 was the turning point for him. Why not try him out? (Gut feeling: Mitchell is the starting 3rd baseman for the Dodgers by mid-July and does pretty well.) Baez is a completely different story. Baez, who will turn 23 in March, was the only 3rd baseman ranked up the top 30 prospects for the Dodgers entering the 2010 season. And, while Mitchell's stock has shot up, his has been in free-fall. Through late July of '09, Baez was having a great season, hitting .286 with 17 doubles, 10 homers, 61 RBI, 5 stolen bases, and a .326 OBP in 79 games at High-A. He even represented the Dodgers in the Futures Game. But, then and there, he suffered at knee injury that caused him the miss the rest of the season. Still, the Dodgers had high hopes for Baez in '10. He didn't come through. The Dodgers sent Baez back to High-A, but he struggled, hitting just .259 with 10 doubles, 6 homers, 42 RBI, 4 stolen bases, and just a .306 OBP in 75 games. (He did hit .385 in a 7-game stint at Double-A.) Even worse, Baez's posted just a .903 Fld% at third base, which is bad enough, but his Fld% has gone down every year in the minors, from .931 in '07 to .913 to '08, to .910 in '09 to the aforementioned .903 in '10. Not what you'd expect from a top-15 prospect. Baez is in limbo, and he better get back on track in the minors in 2011 if he ever wants to make the Dodgers in any capacity. Infante is all the way down at rookie ball so we won't be seeing him any time soon. He hit .270 for the Dodgers' Dominican League team, with 2 doubles, 2 homers, 14 RBI, 13 SB, and a .369 OBP in 57 games. He even posted a .913 Fld% at 3rd. Infante may end up being the best of these three, but if so, it will be in at least 3 years. He'll turn 20 on February 24th. The Dodgers appear to have a problem with their starting 3rd baseman, Casey Blake, in his decline phase, but help may be on the way in the form of late-blooming prospect Russ Mitchell.
Shortstop:
Dodgers shortstop Rafael Furcal was held to under 100 games in '10 because of hamstring and back injuries. Considering that, he had a great year. He hit .300 with 23 doubles, 8 homers, 43 RBI, 7 triples, 66 runs, 22 stolen bases, and a .366 OBP in 97 games. His 22 stolen bases were more than he stole in '08 and '09 combined (20 in 186 games). He even earned an All-Star berth. Defensively though, he was complete disaster. He posted just a .955 Fld% at shortstop. The league average was .971. He has shown great range now and throughout his career, but he still has a career .965 Fld%, also below-average. Furcal, now 33, is signed through 2011 with a team option for 2012. He hasn't been able to stay healthy two of the past three years, so unless he stays healthy in '11 and has a great year, 2011 will be his last year for the Dodgers. Carroll is his backup at the big league level and Uribe could also play shortstop if necessary, but top prospect Dee Gordon is on the way. Gordon, who will turn 23 in April, spent 2010 at Double-A, hitting .277 with 17 doubles, 2 homers, 39 RBI, 20 triples, 86 runs, a .332 OBP, and best of all, 53 stolen bases. Those 53 stolen bases were great, but he was caught 20 times, so he only had a 73% success rate. He's THAT fast, but he has to work on reading pitchers and getting good jumps. He needs some work defensively, considering he posted just a .936 Fld% at shortstop in '10 with below average range. That seems puzzling that he has bad range considering how fast he is. I'm sure he had some sort of problem defensively that will get resolved in 2011. Depending on how well he plays at Triple-A in '10, Gordon could end up replacing Furcal in 2012. Maybe even if Furcal gets hurt in 2011. The Dodgers hope Furcall can manage to stay healthy in 2011 so they won't have to rush top prospect Dee Gordon to the majors to replace him.
Left field:
Left field is where it gets complicated for the Dodgers. There will be a division of playing time between Jay Gibbons, ex-Yankee Marcus Thames, and Tony Gwynn Jr. Gibbons, a 33 year old lefty hitter, hit .280 for the Dodgers in '10 with 2 doubles, 5 homers, and 17 RBI in 37 games. He hit .348 wtih runners in scoring position. Gibbons hit .333 in 15 plate appearances versus lefties and .267 in 65 plate appearances versus righties. He posted a way below-average .960 Fld% in left field, although he was perfect in 15 games at first base. Thames was pretty incredible as a backup outfielder for the Yankees, hitting .288 wtih 7 doubles, 12 homers, 33 RBI, and a .350 OBP in 82 games. He hit a walk-off homer off of Jonathan Papelbon and he also had a walk-off single. But defensively, he posted the same .960 Fld% in left field that Gibbons did. In the American League, the Yankees were able to use him as a DH, but obviously in the NL that's not possible. Thames hit .300 versus lefties compared to .268 versus righties. Gibbons and Thames are nearly identical players at this stage of their careers, with the main difference being that Gibbons bats lefty and Thames bats righty. They will both turn 34 in March (Gibbons on the 2nd, and Thames on the 6th). They couldn't really platoon, because of their similar trends versus righties and lefties. For his career, Gibbons has hit .259 versus righties compared to .265 versus lefties while Thames has hit .236 versus lefties compared to .264 versus righties. I guess they would have to play Gibbons versus righties and Thames verus lefties if they do decide to make a platoon. Gwynn Jr. is a very different player than Gibbons and Thames. In 2010 for the Padres, his age 28 season, Gwynn hit just .204 with 9 doubles, 3 homers, 20 RBI, 3 triples, 17 stolen bases (his only redeeming quality offensively), and a .304 OBP in 117 games. Defensively however, Gwynn was perfect in '10, posting an 1.000 Fld%. Gwynn will see a lot of playing time as a defensive replacement for Gibbons and Thames in addition to a few starts at all three outfield positions. The other backup outfielder-type player the Dodgers have is Xavier Paul, who will be 26 on February 25th. He hit .231 with the Dodgers in '10 with 8 doubles, 11 RBI, 3 SB, and a .277 OBP in 44 games. He posted a .970 Fld% in left field, which is still below-average, and a .952 Fld% in right field, which is obviously even worse. But, he spent the last three seasons at Triple-A, so this just be what kind of players Paul is. We'll have to see if he makes the team as the 5th outfielder. I bet he will. The Dodgers have a decent situation offensively in left field, but they won't have good defense as long as their starters, Gibbons and Thames, are in the game.
Centerfield:
Matt Kemp will be back in centerfield for the Dodgers again in 2011. There some trade rumors (I addressed a possible Kemp trade to the Yankees in this post), but the Dodgers did hold on to him. Kemp had a down-year in '10, hitting just .245 with 25 doubles, 28 homers, 89 RBI, 6 triples, 82 runs, 19 stolen bases (15 CS), and just a .310 OBP in all 162 games. This came one year after a breakout season in '09, when he hit .297 with 25 doubles, 26 homers, 101 RBI, 7 triples, 97 runs, 34 SB (8 CS), and a .352 OBP in just 159 games. His BA went down because his BAbip went down from .345 in '09 to .295 in '10. The crazy part of Kemp's 2009 BAbip was that he had a crazy .284 BAbip on ground balls compared to .176 in '10. Also, Kemp's strikeout rate jumped up from 20.8% to 20.5%, from 139 K's to 170 K's (although his walk rate did go up slightly from 7.8% to 7.9%). Kemp can work on decreasing his strikeout rate, but he was just too lucky from the beginning of his career in '06 to '09, having a crazy .361 BAbip. His luck just ran out. Kemp is still a good player, but maybe 2010 is just how good he really is. If he starts posting .350 BAbip's again, he'll probably hit .300 and make everyone thing he's a huge superstar, but with average luck, he'll always be one of those good players that can't hit for average or post a good OBP. Basically, Juan Uribe with better power and speed. That's unfortunate for Kemp, but that's basically what kind of player he is looking forward unless he gets lucky again. Defensively, Kemp posted a below-average .985 Fld% in centerfield in '10 with average range. He's a decent fielder. He'll be backed up by Gwynn Jr. and Paul. Matt Kemp's luck ran out in '10, and while he's still a good player, he's certainly not the great player he seemed to be.
Right field:
On May 14th, 2010, Andre Eithier had everything going for him. He was hitting .392 with 11 doubles, 11 homers, 38 RBI, 14 walks compared to 16 strikeouts, and a .457 OBP in 33 games. He seemed to be the front-runner for NL MVP, even if he cooled off a little bit. But, that day, Ethier broke his pinky, sidelining him until 31st, and affecting his swing the rest of the year. He hit just .260 after the injury with 12 homers and 44 RBI in 106 games. Overall in '10, Ethier hit .292 with 33 doubles, 23 homers, 82 RBI, and a .364 OBP in 139 games. With his pinky all healed up, what can the Dodgers expect from Ethier in '11? When Ethier was on a roll before he got hurt, it was at least partially because he had a crazy .388 BAbip. After the injury, his BAbip went down to neutral at .300. In 2009, Ethier's BAbip was .289, a bit below-average, but he still hit .272 with 42 doubles, 31 homers, 106 RBI, 92 runs, and a .361 OBP in 160 games. I would expect him to get back to that in 2011 and he better, considering he'll turn 29 in April. In right field, Ethier posted a great .996 Fld% with 6 outfield assists, although he did show poor range. He'll be backed up by Gwynn and Paul. Assuming he'll be at 100% in 2011, he'll be a very good player for the Dodgers.
Starting Rotation:
Just 22 years old, southpaw Clayton Kershaw has already proved himself as a legitimate ace. In '10, he went just 13-10, but with a 2.91 ERA and 212 K's compared to 81 walks in 32 starts and 204.1 IP. He allowed just 160 hits for a 7.1 H/9, and 13 homers for a 0.6 HR/9. He was a bit lucky, allowing a .279 BAbip. Neutralized, he had a 3.26 ERA, which is still good. A 3.26 ERA from a 23 year old Kershaw in '11 would be great. But, we could see something even better if Kershaw can mature more as a pitcher. With the bat, Kershaw hit just .055, but he led the NL with 18 sac bunts. Clayton Kershaw is a really good ace for the Dodgers.
Ted Lilly was a great midseason acquisition for the Dodgers. After going just 3-8, but with a 3.69 ERA for the Cubs, the veteran left-hander went 7-4 with a 3.52 ERA for the Dodgers. Overall in '10, he went 10-12 with a 3.62 ERA and 166 K's compared to just 44 walks in 30 starts and 193.2 IP. He allowed just 165 hits, which amounts to a very good 7.2 H/9, but 32 homers, good for a Javier Vazquez-esque (at least in 2010) 1.5 HR/9. Overall, he had a very good season. Lilly was incredible besides the homer rate, but two questions: 1) did he allow so few hits because of a low BAbip?; 2) was he unlucky with his homer rate? Well, before I answer Question 1, I have to acknowledge that Lilly's 7.2 H/9 was tied for his best H/9 of his 12-year career. As you may have guessed, he was incredibly lucky, allowing just a .254 BAbip. But, Lilly has been lucky for a long time: he has posted a BAbip .272 or lower each of the past 4 years and he hasn't posted a BAbip .300 or higher since 2001. Why has Lilly been so lucky? Well, he's an extreme fly ball pitcher (.42 ground ball to fly ball ratio [GB/FB] in '10), so he allows a lot of home runs (10.2 of the fly balls he allowed in '10 left the park [this stat is known as HR/FB]), and home runs are not considered to be in play, so they are not counted in Lilly's BAbip. So, Lilly wasn't really lucky, he just gave up so many home runs that he allowed so few other hits (just 6.2 non-homer hits per 9 innings) that his BAbip looked really good, even though he wasn't really lucky and it's been like that his whole career. Which brings up to Question 2. Even though Lilly is an extreme fly ball pitcher, 32 homers is a lot of homers. Has he always given that many homers? Well, he's only had a HR/9 ratio 1.5 or higher twice in the last 5 years, so no. Going back to that 10.2 HR/FB, he has just a 9.2 HR/FB since '03, so yes, he was a bit unlucky with his homer rate in '10. So, keeping these factors in mind, what does Lilly's '10 look like neutralized? Well, neutralized, his H/9 goes up to 8.0 while he HR/9 remains about the same, so he posts a 3.71 ERA. That's still good. Lilly better be good, considering the Dodgers signed him to a three year extension at age 35. With the bat, Lilly is a complete joke. He hit just .043 with no homers or RBI and just 2 sac bunts. Still, you have expect that from a pitcher who spent 8 years in the AL. Lilly is a solid pitcher for the Dodgers.
Hiroki Kuroda, who will turn 36 on February 10th, finally posted his first double-digit win season in the US in '10, going 11-13 with a 3.39 ERA and 159 K's compared to just 48 walks in 31 starts and 196.1 IP. He allowed 180 hits, an 8.3 H/9, and 15 homers, good for a 0.7 HR/9. He pitched very well. Kuroda was a bit lucky, but his .287 BAbip was the highest of his MLB career. He posted a reasonable 6.7 HR/FB. He's just a good pitcher. He also is a savvy batter, considering he hit just .036 with no homers or RBI, but laid down 11 sac bunts. Kuroda is such a good pitcher that I can't really say anything about him.
Chad Billingsley, like the preceding three pitchers, also seemed to have a good year '10. The 26 year old right-hander went 12-11 with a 3.57 ERA and 171 K's compared to 69 walks in 31 starts and 191.2 IP. He allowed just 176 hits, good for an 8.3 H/9, and just 8 homers, which amounts to a great 0.4 HR/9. But, now let's look at his '09 numbers: the same 12-11, but with a 4.03 ERA and 179 K's compared to 86 walks in 32 starts, a relief appearance, and 196.1 IP. That season he allowed 173 hits, good for a 7.9 H/9, but 17 homers, which comes out to a still OK 0.8 HR/9. Was he lucky in '10 or unlucky in '09, or did he just improve? Answer: he just improved. He had a .297 BAbip in '09 and a .304 BAbip in '10, his main reason for improvement was that he decreased his walk rate. Billingsley hasn't been lucky as a pitcher his entire career. Even in his great '08 season where he went 16-10 with a 3.14 ERA and 201 K's, he was somewhat unlucky, allowing a .318 BAbip. Another big reason for Billingsley's improvement in '10 was that he was able to get his GB/FB down to 1.00 (i.e. more or less the same amount of ground balls and fly balls). But, Billingsley got incredibly luck in another regard. Just 3.2% of the fly balls he allowed went for home runs. Even for Roy Halladay, 7.9% of the fly balls he allowed left the park! And don't give me that Dodger Stadium is a pitchers' park. 5.1% of Kershaw's fly balls went for home runs! In 2009, 6.8 of Billingsley's fly balls went for home runs, which isn't good unless you can dominate in every other aspect of pitching (like Halladay). Billingsley just got lucky with fly balls in '10. It was good that he allowed less fly balls, but he still got ridiculously lucky. He's still a pretty good pitcher, but expect his ERA to be a lot closer to 4.00 in 2011. Billingsley hit .145 with 3 RBI and 6 sac bunts. Chad Billingsley posted a 3.57 ERA in '09, but primarily because he got very lucky with fly balls staying in the park, so while he's still an OK pitcher, expect his ERA to go up a bit in 2011.
The Dodgers were able to sign 31 year old right-hander Jon Garland away from the rival Padres. His '10 stats look good, but you have to remember he pitched his home games at Petco Park. He went 14-12 with a career-best 3.47 ERA, but just 136 K's (still a career-high) compared to 87 walks in 33 starts and exactly 200 IP. He allowed 176 hits, good for a 7.9 H/9, and 20 homers, which amounts to a 0.9 HR/9. He just walks too many guys. Neutralized, he went 9-11 with a 4.21 ERA, although if you put him on the 2010 Dodgers, he would have gone 10-10 with a 4.09 ERA. The Dodgers might have been a bit over-zealous in signing Garland to a one year deal worth 5 million dollars, but with a vesting option worth 8 million dollars if he pitches 190 innings. He's just not that good of a pitcher. But, as the 5th starter on this team, he's fine. I still think they're paying him too much. Garland hit pretty well for the Padres, posting a .214 BA with 2 RBI and 6 sac bunts. Neutralized, his BA goes up to .241. Garland is probably being overpaid by the Dodgers, but he's great for a 5th starter.
I can't say I know where Vicente Padilla fits into all of this. He was signed to a one-year deal worth 2 million dollars with a ton of a incentives, one set of incentives for if he's a reliever, and another if he's a starter. In 2010 for the Dodgers, Padilla went 6-5 with a 4.07 ERA and 84 K's compared to just 24 walks in 16 starts and 95 IP. He allowed 79 hits, good for a 7.5 H/9, but 14 homers, which amounted to a 1.3 HR/9. He missed quite a bit of time with forearm and neck injuries. In 2011, the Dodgers are planning to use Padilla in a variety of roles, from spot starter to middle reliever, and possibly even as a closer if Broxton falters again. Padilla began his career as a middle reliever, going 7-9 with a 4.24 ERA, 80 K's, 43 walks, 17 holds, and 2 saves in 83 RA's from 1999 to 2001 with the Diamondbacks and Phillies before being converted to a starter in 2002. He allowed a 10.1 H/9 (although he did allow a .345 BAbip), but a very good 0.4 HR/9. He has made just 1 relief appearance since then. Will Vicente be successful as a middle reliever? I have absolutely no idea. Only time will tell.
Bullpen:
29 year old lefty Hong-Chih Kuo, a 2010 All-Star, had a career year in '10, going 3-2 with a minuscule 1.20 ERA, 73 K's, just 18 walks, 21 holds, and 12 saves in 56 RA's and 60 IP. He allowed just 29 hits, good for an unbelievable 4.4 H/9, and just 1 home run, which amounted to a great 0.2 HR/9. He was incredible. Was he lucky? Heck yes. He allowed just a .207 BAbip. It's hard to be much luckier than that. Just 14% of all balls put in play against him were line drives, so that's good, and it obviously lowered his BAbip, but come on! Neutralized, he allowed a 1.35 ERA (he allowed just a 4.5 H/9 neutralized, probably because of the line drive factor I just mentioned), and who in the world wouldn't take that? Kuo also did alllow a 6.6 H/9 in '08 and '09, so 4.4 isn't THAT far off. He's still a great reliever no matter you say. This offseason, the Dodgers signed 32 year old right-hander Matt Guerrier to a 3 year deal. Guerrier is not your average middle reliever. He has just a 5.9 career H/9. Still, he's been durable, averaging 76 appearances the past 4 season while posting a 3.23 ERA. In 2010, he went 5-7 with a 3.17 ERA, just 42 K's, 22 walks, 24 holds, and 1 save in 74 RA's and 71 IP. Guerrier allowed 56 hits for a 7.1 H/9, and 7 homers for a 0.9 HR/9 that is a little bit too high. Guerrier was lucky in allowing so few hits, allowing a .233 BAbip, the second lowest of his career to 2009, when he allowed a .214 BAbip on his way to a 2.36 ERA. Neutralized, he had a 3.49 ERA in '10, and while that's still pretty good, it doesn't sound like a reliever that you would sign to a three year deal. Guerrier is a good reliever, but not the kind of reliever you would want to sign to a 3-year deal. In 2010, the Dodgers drafted 24 year old right-hander Carlos Monasterios. Monasterios' overall numbers weren't that great (3-5, 4.38 ERA), but he was great in 19 RA's, going 1-0 with a 2.06 ERA, and 23 K's compared to 9 walks in 35 IP. (He did not record a save or hold.) He allowed 31 hits for an 8.0 H/9, and 3 homers for a 0.8 HR/9. Those numbers are certainly promising. We'll have to see how he does in more pressure situations. Another 2010 rookie, 23 year old righty Kenley Jansen, was incredible in '10, going 1-0 with just a 0.67 ERA, 41 K's, 15 walks, 4 holds, and 4 saves (0 blown saves) in 25 RA's and 27 IP. He allowed just 12 hits for a 4.0 H/9 that was even better than Kuo, and 0 homers (obviously good for a 0.0 HR/9). He was lucky to the tune of a .235 BAbip, and that none of the fly balls he allowed left the park, but how do you give a hoot about his 0.69 neutralized ERA? Why was his ERA still so low neutralized? Well, he had a 13.7 K/9, so not many batters were putting the ball in play against him. He was even perfect with the bat, getting a single and a walk in two plate appearances. Jansen could be a special reliever for the Dodgers. Ramon Troncoso, who will turn 28 on February 16th, had a great year in '09, going 5-4 with a 2.72 ERA, 55 K's, 34 walks, 14 holds, and 6 saves in 73 RA's and 82.2 IP. He allowed 83 hits, basically a hit per inning, but just 3 homers, good for a 0.3 HR/9. But, he didn't follow that up very well in '10, going 2-3 with a 4.33 ERA, 34 K's, 18 walks, and 8 holds in 52 RA's and 54 IP. What the difference between '09 and '10 for Troncoso? Well, it wasn't BAbip- Troncoso's .281 BAbip in 2010 was much .33 lower than hit .314 BAbip in '09. The difference was that 9.1% of the fly balls he gave up in '10 went for home runs, compared to just 2.9% in '09. The BAbip is worrying, but then again, a 4.33 ERA isn't that bad. He's a decent reliever and he'll probably make the team. 28 year old right-hander Ronald Belisario had a terrible year in '10, going 3-1 with a 5.04 ERA, 38 K's, 19 walks, 16 holds, and 2 saves in 59 RA's and 55.1 IP. He allowed 52 hits, 8.5 per 9, and 6 homers, which amounts to a bad (for a reliever) 1.0 HR/9. He did all this while have a .280 BAbip, although he did have a 10.2% HR/FB. Belisario did post a 2.04 ERA and 12 holds in '09, so he's not a complete loss cause at all. He could make the team with a good spring training. 27 year old Blake Hawksworth, acquired from the Cardinals this offseason for Ryan Theriot, did not pitch well for the Cardinals in '10, going 4-8 with a 4.98 ERA, 61 K's, 35 walks, and 4 holds in 35 RA's, 8 starts, and 90.1 IP. He allowed 113 hits, a terrible 11.3 H/9, 15 homers for a disastrous 1.5 HR/9. He had a 4.25 ERA, but 9 homers allowed as a reliever. He's a long-shot to make the team, especially with Padilla around. With all the rotation candidates around, John Ely, who was a starter for the Dodgers from late April to late June and posted a 3.62 ERA, before collapsing in two July starts, going back down to the minors, and coming back in September. Overall in '10, he went 4-10 with a 5.49 ERA and 76 K's compared to 40 walks in 18 starts and exactly 100 IP. He allowed 105 hits, over a hit per inning, and 12 homers, which came out to a 1.1 HR/9. He had a .314 BAbip against him, and an 8.0% HR/FB, so he was a bit unlucky. He was lucky enough to have a .276 BAbip until July, but he allowed a crazy .418 BAbip after. Neutralized Ely had a 6.46 ERA, so that's obviously a bad sign. He also had a 6.62 ERA at Triple-A in '10. The Dodgers will almost definitely send Ely back to Triple-A to begin '10. He needs to get back on track. If he does, he's just 24 years old, so he could have a nice career. Jon Link, who will turn 27 on March 23rd, went 3-2 with a 3.71 ERA, 55 K's, and 21 walks (I can't find his holds count) in 44 minor league RA's and 60.2 IP. He allowed over a hit per inning and 0.7 homers per 9, so he needs some work. We won't see him on the big league club to begin the year. The Dodgers should have a good bullpen in '11.
Closer:
The enigma that is Jonathan Broxton. In 2010, he was an All-Star, but was so bad late in the year that Kuo was promoted to the closer job. He ended up going 5-6 with a 4.04 ERA, 73 K's, 28 walks, 3 holds, and 22 saves in 64 RA's and 62.1 IP. He allowed 64 hits, more than a hit per inning, and 4 homers, 0.6 per 9. He had a 0.83 ERA before the Yankees tagged for 4 runs on June 27th, and he posted an unbelievably bad 7.58 ERA after that. In his defense, he did allow a .382 BAbip after June 27th, but a 7.58 ERA! All Dodgers fans should be trembling each time Broxton takes the mound. He has electric stuff, and he better use it better in '10, or we might be forced to see Vicente Padilla close.
Overview:
The Dodgers have a decent hitting team, but they need Kemp and Ethier to bounce back. They have a pretty good top 3 in their rotation, but the last 2 spots are questionable. They have a good, but mostly unproven bullpen, and of course Broxton can be a disaster. They'll be better, but I don't think they're that good of a team at all.
2010 Record: 80-82
Prediction: 84-78, 4th in NL West
The Dodgers will contend if... Kemp and Ethier have huge years, Billingsley and Garland have good years, the youngsters in the bullpen keep performing well, and Broxton saves 30 games.
Good luck, Mattingly.
Monday, February 7, 2011
Friday, January 28, 2011
2011 MLB Preview: Arizona Diamondbacks
Time for the annual MLB preview! Let's start in the NL West with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
If you're new to the drill, I'm going to look at each team position by position, going through the relevant stats, and then give an overview that team and state my prediction.
Catcher:
After a nice 2009 season, Diamondbacks catcher Miguel Montero was a disappointment offensively in '10, but mostly because he missed two months early in the season with a knee injury. He hit .266 with 20 doubles, 9 homers, 43 RBI, and .332 OBP in 85 games after hitting .294 with 30 doubles, 16 homers, 59 RBI, and a .355 OBP in 128 games in '09. But, defensively, Montero is outstanding. He posted a .996 Fld% and a 31% CS% with just 6 passed balls. If Montero can rebound offensively, that would be great for Arizona, but if he can just stay healthy, hit around .270, and hit 12 or 13 homers, he would still be a valuable commodity for them. Backup Henry Blanco has just a .227 career BA, but he posted a .997 Fld% and a 50% CS% in '10 for the Mets. He's a fine backup. The D-backs have a great situation defensively at catcher, and they'll be happy if Montero can just stay healthy and hit a few homers, even if he doesn't rebound to his '09 levels.
First base:
Rookie 1st baseman Brandon Allen is poised to take over the first base job for the D-backs. Allen had cups of coffee in the majors in 2009 and 2010, hitting .221 with 5 homers and 20 RBI in 54 combined games. He posted a .993 Fld% at first base and a 1.000 Fld% in left field. At Triple-A in '10, he hit just .261, but with 18 doubles, 25 homers, 86 RBI, 14 stolen bases, and a .405 OBP in 107 games. He posted a .990 Fld% in 73 games at first base and a .981 Fld% in 33 games in left field. Allen won't be a great defensive first baseman, but the D-backs obviously hope he can hit well at the major league level. He did hit .267 in the majors in '10 compared to .202 in '09, so that's a good sign. They're not expecting him to completely replace Adam LaRoche, but they do want Allen to hit around .260 with power, maybe 18 or 19 home runs, and survive defensively. His backup at first base and possible starter if he fails will be ex-Yankee Juan Miranda. Miranda had a .253 BA with 4 homers, 14 RBI, and a .330 OBP in 46 games with the Yankees over the past three seasons. He didn't make any errors at first base. Miranda was rock-solid the past three seasons stuck behind Jason Giambi and Mark Teixeira at Triple-A, hitting .287 with 15 homers and 59 RBI per season and posting a .374 OBP. Again, keep in mind that he missed some time over those seasons because he was in the majors because of an injury. He has a .991 career Fld% at first base in the minors. Miranda will be 28 in late April, so even if he wins the starting job, he'll be just a stop-gap. The D-backs are certainly hoping that Allen can play well enough in spring training to win the starting job and play well enough during the season to keep it, but if not, they have a capable backup in Miranda.
Second base:
After a terrible '09 season with Atlanta in which he hit just .224, Kelly Johnson proved to be a great signing for the D-backs following the season. He had a breakout season in '10, hitting .284 with 36 doubles, 26 homers, 71 RBI, 5 triples, 93 runs, 13 stolen bases, and a .370 OBP in 154 games. His BA, homers, RBI, runs, stolen bases, and games played numbers in '10 were all career highs. He also was great defensively, posting an above-average .988 Fld%. Johnson is a very good player. His backups at second base with be middle-infield backups Ryan Roberts and Tony Abreu. Roberts has a .992 career Fld% at second base, and he can hit a little bit too. He hit just .197 in '10, but he hit .279 with 7 homers and 25 RBI in '09. Abreu is basically the 25th-man on the roster. He has a .251 career BA, but just a .279 OBP. He plays second, third, and short, but he's a disaster defensively at all three positions. The D-backs have a nice situation at second, having a really good player in Johnson as the starter and nice defensive depth behind him in Roberts.
Third base:
The D-backs currently have Melvin Mora penciled in as their starting third baseman. He will turn 39 in a couple of weeks. Not good. In their defense, he did have a decent season with the Rockies in '10, hitting .285 with 12 doubles, 7 homers, 45 RBI, 5 triples, and a .358 OBP in 113 games. He even posted a slightly-above average .957 Fld% at third base, but with Derek Jeter-esque range acording to Bill James' range factor per 9 innings and range factor per game stats. I want to say that he's a stop-gap for some good prospect, but their only decent third base prospect who's anywhere near the majors, Ryan Wheeler, played just 19 games at Double-A in '10 after playing in 113 at High-A. He did do well offensively, (.280, 28 doubles, 12 homers, 67 RBI, .337 OBP) and survive defensively (.949 Fld%), but he's a ways away. For now, Mora will be backed up by Geoff Blum, who hit .267 with the Astros in '10 with a significantly above-average .976 Fld% at third base. But, he'll turn 38 in April. The D-backs are very old at third base, and with no help coming in the near future, they'll just have to hope that Mora and Blum hold up.
Shortstop:
The D-backs recently signed their arbitration-eligible shortstop Stephen Drew to a two year, 13.75 million dollar deal. Good for them; he's a good all-around player. Drew isn't quite a five-tool player, but he does a little bit of everything. He's a decent hitter for average (.278 in '10), decent hitter for power (33 doubles, 15 homers, 61 RBI), he has nice speed (10 stolen bases and 12 triples), he's a good fielder (a .984 Fld%, 3rd in the NL and 3rd in the NL in putouts by a SS), and he has a nice arm (2nd in the NL in assists by a SS). He also had 83 runs, which doesn't really fit under any category (if you want to say it's part of speed, keep in mind that Mark Teixeira led the AL in runs in '10). His backups will be Roberts and Abreu. Good luck with that. Roberts has never played shortstop in the majors and has just a .959 career Fld% there in the minors. Stephen Drew is a very good shortstop for the D-backs, but there isn't much depth behind him.
Left Field:
Newly signed outfielder Xavier Nady is currently lined up as the D-backs' starting left fielder, although he could wind up playing first base if both Allen and Miranda don't play well in spring training. In a backup role for the Cubs, Nady hit .256 with 13 doubles, 6 homers, 33 RBI, and just a .306 OBP in 119 games (347 AB's). Nady missed nearly all of '09 with an elbow injury one year after having a career year in '08, hitting .297 with 37 doubles, 25 homers, 97 RBI, and a .357 OBP in 148 games between the Pirates and Yankees. From '05 to '08, Nady hit .284 with an average of 26 doubles, 19 homers, 69 RBI, and a .339 OBP per season. The D-backs are hoping that with another starting role, Nady will be able to get back to somewhere near those numbers. Defensively, Nady posted just a .970 Fld% in the outfield in '10, and has just a .966 career Fld% in left field. He better Nady's backups will be Gerardo Parra and Cole Gillespie. Parra was Arizona's primary left fielder in '10 as well as '09, but his performance in '10 didn't warrant him being the starter again. Parra was decent in '09, hitting .290 with 21 doubles, 5 homers, 60 RBI, 8 triples, 5 stolen bases (7 CS), and a .324 OBP in 124 games. He posted a below-average .978 Fld% in LF. That was good enough. His .261 BA and .308 OBP in '10 were certainly not. He set career highs in just two stats: games played (133) and HBP's (2). He hit 19 doubles, 3 homers, 30 RBI, and 6 triples. He did slightly improve his Fld% in LF to .981. Good move by the D-backs to have the guts to replace a young player with a veteran even though Parra wasn't that bad. Gillespie hit .231 with 8 doubles, 2 homers, 12 RBI, and a .283 OBP in 45 games. He posted a perfect 1.000 Fld% in CF and RF, but just a .969 Fld% in LF, although he did make just 1 error. The D-backs need Xavier Nady to get back to his previous numbers when he was a starting outfielder for the Padres, Mets, Pirates, and Yankees, but they do have decent depth behind him.
Centerfield:
In centerfield, the D-backs have a very good four-tool player in Chris Young. Young hit just .257 in '10, but with 33 doubles, 27 homers, 91 RBI, 94 runs, 28 stolen bases, and a .341 OBP in 156 games. Defensively, he showcased his arm with 10 outfield assists including 6 double plays, although his great arm did lead to just a .984 Fld%. Young's low batting averages got him in trouble in '10, when he hit just .212 with 15 homers and just 42 RBI. Even though Young is a four-tool player, he better put up a decent batting average in order to take advantage of those tools (if you don't hit, you won't hit for power and you won't be able to steal bases, and you'll be benched so you won't be able to take advantage of your defensive tools). Parra will be his backup. If Young can hit for just a decent average, centerfield will be one of the strongest positions for Arizona.
Right field:
Amid all the trade rumors, I'm sure at least a few people forgot that D-backs RF Justin Upton had an off year. He hit .273 with 27 doubles, 17 homers, 69 RBI, 18 SB, and a .356 OBP in 133 games. He hit .300 with 26 homers, 86 RBI, 20 stolen bases, and a .366 OBP in '09. As opposed to his offensive regression from '09 to '10, Upton was much better defensively, posting a .985 Fld% in '10 compared to .961 although he had just 1 assist compared to 4. Bill James' defensive metrics showed that Upton displayed great range. He had an off-year, but he's still a very good player. He'll be backed up by Parra and Gillespie. Upton is a great five-tool talent and the D-backs hope he can get back to using all five of those tools in '10.
Starting Rotation:
The D-backs' de facto ace is 26 year old right-hander and ex-Yankee Ian Kennedy. In his first full year as a starter, Kennedy did pretty well, going just 9-10, but with a 3.80 ERA and 168 K's compared to just 70 walks in 32 starts and 194 IP. He allowed just 163 hits for a 7.6 H/9 ratio, good for 9th-best in the NL. Kennedy certainly had his problems, though. He allowed 26 home runs, 7th in the NL, he hit 10 batters, 3rd in the league, and he threw 16 wild pitches, good for most in the league. Still, Kennedy was pretty unhittable, although he was certainly helped by a .261 BA on balls in play (BAbip; league average is around .300). Kennedy also out-hit one of Arizona's top power hitters this past season (Mark Reynolds, who was traded to Baltimore), hitting .204 with 2 RBI and a .290 OBP. Baseball-Reference gave him a 0.4 WAR (wins above replacement) hitting, and add that onto his 2.7 WAR pitching WAR, and he had a nice 3.1 WAR season. Kennedy was a bit lucky in '10 and certainly has some things to work on, but the D-backs hope his return to 'average' luck in '10 will be canceled out by his maturity as a pitcher.
The D-backs have to hope that they'll get some better production out of Joe Saunders, acquired in the Dan Haren trade. Saunders, a right-hander who will turn 30 in June, went just 9-17 between the LA Angels (of Anaheim) and the D-backs with a 4.47 ERA, 114 K's, and 64 walks in 33 starts and amazingly, 203.1 IP, the first time he has ever gone over 200 innings in a season. He went 3-7 with a 4.25 ERA for the D-backs. Saunders' main problem in '10 was hits allowed: he allowed 10.3 hits per 9 innings. But, that goes right along with his 9.7 career H/9. Saunders is a two-time 16 game winner (17 in '08 and 16 in '09), although his career ERA is just 4.29 and he has that bad H/9. In terms of hitting, there's not much to talk about. He hit just .087 with an RBI for the D-backs, although he did somehow steal a base. The D-backs just hope that Saunders can somehow maintain that 4.25 ERA he had in his 13 starts for them after they acquired him.
The Diamondbacks found lighting in a bottle with 23 year old right-hander Daniel Hudson in '10 (he will turn 24 in March). Hudson went 1-1 with a 6.32 ERA in 3 starts for the White Sox, but after the D-backs acquired him in the Edwin Jackson trade, he went 7-1 with a 1.69 ERA, 70 K's and just 16 walks in 11 starts and 79.2 IP. He allowed just 51 hits, good for a staggering 5.8 H/9. If Kennedy was unhittable, this guy was unstoppable. But, there are two factors that discourage me from thinking that Hudson is a ridiculous pitcher who will be dominating hitters for years to come: 1) he managed a 3.47 ERA in 93.1 Triple-A innings, which is OK, not great (although he did strike out 108 batters); and 2) he allowed just a .243 BAbip. How lucky is Hudson? Well besides that .243 BAbip, he also had 6 RBI despite just 4 hits (.148 BA). There's almost no way Hudson will manage another BAbip under .250, so the D-backs should just be hoping for that 3.47 ERA he posted at Triple-A. If Hudson puts that up, he might be the ace or number two starter on this team, but I'm placing him 3rd behind Kennedy and Saunders because I'm just really scared of what could happen if he allows a league average .300 BAbip.
There are three pitchers in contention for the last two spots in the Arizona rotation: Barry Enright, Zach Duke, and the recently acquired Armanda Galarraga. Enright, who will turn 25 in March went 6-7 with a 3.91 ERA, 49 K's, and 29 BB in 17 starts and 99 IP for the D-backs in '10. But, you have to be very worried about his 4.5 K/9 and terrible 1.8 HR/9 ratios. He also allowed just a .254 BAbip. But, he did have a 7.3 K/9 in the minors including an 8.9 K/9 at Double-A in '10. Enright is far from a sure thing, but you would think he could manage a decent ERA, at least under 4.50, if he can get that strikeout rate up to somewhere near his minor league levels. Hitting-wise, Enright was pretty incredible, hitting .252 with 6 RBI. While Enright was lucky, ex-Pirate Zack Duke was the exact opposite. Duke, 28 in April, went just 8-15 with a horrendous 5.72 ERA, 96 K's, and 51 walks in 29 starts, but just 159 IP. He allowed 212 hits, 12 per 9 innings, and 25 homers, 1.4 per 9, which isn't so bad unless you consider that Duke had the 3rd-best HR/9 ratio in the NL a few years ago. But, Duke is not as bad as the stats say he is. He had a crazy .343 BAbip. If that went down .300, Duke would have had at least a decent year. Duke posted a 4.95 FIP (fielding-independent pitching), which isn't great, or even good, but it's a heck of a lot better than his 5.72 ERA. Duke is not that bad of a pitcher. Duke hit just .063 with no RBI in '10, although he did have 8 sac bunts. There's almost no way Duke would be a complete disaster with an ERA over 5.20 as the D-backs' 5th starter. Galarraga, who recently turned 30, is what he is. He had his one moment in the limelight when Jim Joyce ruined his perfect game, but he went just 4-9 with a 4.49 ERA, just 74 strikeouts, and 51 walks in 24 starts, an RA (relief appearance), and 144.1 IP. He allowed 21 homers, a 1.3 HR/9, and 143 hits, an 8.9 H/9 ratio. He's an OK pitcher. He doesn't strike enough batters out to allow over 3 walks per 9 innings and nearly a hit per inning. At his best, Galarraga went 13-7 with a 3.78 ERA, 126 K's, and 61 walks in 28 starts, 2 RA's (relief appearances), and 178.2 IP. At his worst in '09, he went 6-10 with a 5.64 ERA, 95 K's, and 67 walks in 25 starts, 4 RA's, and 143.2 IP. Factoring the switch to the NL, Galarraga will probably post something like a 4.30 ERA. That's OK, but if Enright gets straightened out or Duke returns to his '09 form (4.06 ERA in 213 IP), they would certainly be better. We'll see what happens in spring training, but I think Enright and Duke should be the 4th and 5th starters, at least to begin the year, with Galarraga, who does have some relief experience, serving as a long reliever.
Bullpen:
Righty Juan Gutierrez had a really bad season, going 0-6 with a 5.08 ERA, 47 K's, 23 walks, 8 holds, and 15 saves in 58 RA's and 56.2 IP. Good thing he won't have to close again... at least you would think so. He posted a 6.87 ERA before previous closer Chad Qualls was traded compared to a 1.45 ERA after. What? That has to be an encouraging sign for the D-backs. He adjusted and had great success in his new role. Hopefully he can use that new experience of success in a late inning role to help him spring forward to a great 2011. Aaron Heilman went 5-8 with a 4.50 ERA, 55 K's, 26 walks, 12 holds, and 6 saves in 70 RA's and 72 IP. There has to be at least some worry that Heilman will collapse at age 32 after 5 straight seasons with over 70 appearances. Sam Demel, 25, went 2-1 with a 5.35 ERA, 33 K's, 12 walks, 4 holds, and 2 saves (0 blown saves) in 37 RA's and 37 IP. His main problem was that he allowed more than a hit per inning, although he did have a .325 BAbip. He posted an 8.0 K/9 and a great 2.9 BB/9, although he did allow 5 homers, 1.2 per 9. He could be a decent reliever in '11 for the D-backs if he just has 'average' luck. 27 year old right-hander Esmerling Vazquez had a just plain terrible season in '10. He appeared in 57 games, going 1-6 with a 5.20 ERA, 55 K's, 38 BB, and 6 holds in 53.2 IP. He simply walked too many batters, 6.4 per 9. That's a bit of a problem. He did post a 4.42 ERA in 53 RA's in '09, so the D-backs have to be optimistic that Vazquez wasn't as bad as his 2010 stats say he is. In exchange for Mark Reynolds, the D-backs acquired right-handers David Hernandez and Kam Mickolio from the Orioles. Hernandez, who wil turn 26 in May, went 8-8 with a 4.31 ERA, 72 K's, 42 walks, 2 holds, and 2 saves in 33 RA, 8 starts, and 79.1 IP. Those are decent stats. But, as a reliever, he was pretty solid, going 7-3 with a 3.16 ERA, and 45 K's compared to just 13 walks. Hernandez did pitch in mostly low leverage situations (hence the 2 holds, and not more), but he still had a nice season as a reliever and he's moving from the AL East to the NL West, so he could be a very effective reliever for the Diamondbacks. Mickolio, who will turn 27 in May, is a different story. He posted a 7.36 ERA in 3 RA's in '10. He even posted a 6.37 ERA in 30 appearances at Triple-A in '10! That's not good. Mickolio did post a 3.50 ERA in 35 Triple-A appearances in '09 and a 1.80 ERA in 17 appearances there in '08. He also posted a 2.63 ERA with 2 holds in 11 RA's for the Orioles in '09. Mickolio can't be that bad of a reliever. His ML numbers in '10 were such a small sample size, and he had just had a terrible off-year at Triple-A. I would expect something like his 4.32 career ERA in the majors. You have to notice that every reliever besides Hernandez posted an ERA 4.50 or higher in '10. You have to be worried about that.
Closer:
J.J. Putz is lined up to close for the D-backs in '11. Putz had an outstanding season as the setup man for the White Sox, going 7-5 with a 2.83 ERA, 65 strikeouts, just 15 walks, 14 holds, and 3 saves in 60 RA's and 54 IP. His last full season as a closer was 2007, when he went 6-1 with a 1.38 ERA, 82 K's, just 13 walks, and 40 saves in 68 RA's and 71.2 IP. It's a bad sign that he hasn't been a full-time closer since '07, but I think he'll be OK because of his great '10, and because at least he does have experience in the role. Plus, he's moving to the NL West. He should be fine at closer for the D-backs, saving 35 or 40 games with an ERA 2.90 or less.
Overview:
The D-backs have a decent offense, but they'll need a big bounce-back year from Justin Upton and continued success from Chris Young. The D-backs are decent defensively, but they have potential problems at the corner infield spots. The rotation is slightly below-average at best, and the bullpen is terrible, even though Putz will probably be great. The D-backs need everything to go right to contend in '11.
2010 record: 65-97, 5th in the NL West
Prediction: 70- 92, 5th in the NL West
The D-backs will contend if... Upton and Young have breakout seasons, Brandon Allen is a contender for Rookie of the Year, Mora somehow holds down 3rd base, Ian Kennedy keeps improving, Daniel Hudson still posts an ERA under 3.00, the 4th and 5th starters are surprises in a good way, and the bullpen doesn't completely collapse like it did in 2010.
If you're new to the drill, I'm going to look at each team position by position, going through the relevant stats, and then give an overview that team and state my prediction.
Catcher:
After a nice 2009 season, Diamondbacks catcher Miguel Montero was a disappointment offensively in '10, but mostly because he missed two months early in the season with a knee injury. He hit .266 with 20 doubles, 9 homers, 43 RBI, and .332 OBP in 85 games after hitting .294 with 30 doubles, 16 homers, 59 RBI, and a .355 OBP in 128 games in '09. But, defensively, Montero is outstanding. He posted a .996 Fld% and a 31% CS% with just 6 passed balls. If Montero can rebound offensively, that would be great for Arizona, but if he can just stay healthy, hit around .270, and hit 12 or 13 homers, he would still be a valuable commodity for them. Backup Henry Blanco has just a .227 career BA, but he posted a .997 Fld% and a 50% CS% in '10 for the Mets. He's a fine backup. The D-backs have a great situation defensively at catcher, and they'll be happy if Montero can just stay healthy and hit a few homers, even if he doesn't rebound to his '09 levels.
First base:
Rookie 1st baseman Brandon Allen is poised to take over the first base job for the D-backs. Allen had cups of coffee in the majors in 2009 and 2010, hitting .221 with 5 homers and 20 RBI in 54 combined games. He posted a .993 Fld% at first base and a 1.000 Fld% in left field. At Triple-A in '10, he hit just .261, but with 18 doubles, 25 homers, 86 RBI, 14 stolen bases, and a .405 OBP in 107 games. He posted a .990 Fld% in 73 games at first base and a .981 Fld% in 33 games in left field. Allen won't be a great defensive first baseman, but the D-backs obviously hope he can hit well at the major league level. He did hit .267 in the majors in '10 compared to .202 in '09, so that's a good sign. They're not expecting him to completely replace Adam LaRoche, but they do want Allen to hit around .260 with power, maybe 18 or 19 home runs, and survive defensively. His backup at first base and possible starter if he fails will be ex-Yankee Juan Miranda. Miranda had a .253 BA with 4 homers, 14 RBI, and a .330 OBP in 46 games with the Yankees over the past three seasons. He didn't make any errors at first base. Miranda was rock-solid the past three seasons stuck behind Jason Giambi and Mark Teixeira at Triple-A, hitting .287 with 15 homers and 59 RBI per season and posting a .374 OBP. Again, keep in mind that he missed some time over those seasons because he was in the majors because of an injury. He has a .991 career Fld% at first base in the minors. Miranda will be 28 in late April, so even if he wins the starting job, he'll be just a stop-gap. The D-backs are certainly hoping that Allen can play well enough in spring training to win the starting job and play well enough during the season to keep it, but if not, they have a capable backup in Miranda.
Second base:
After a terrible '09 season with Atlanta in which he hit just .224, Kelly Johnson proved to be a great signing for the D-backs following the season. He had a breakout season in '10, hitting .284 with 36 doubles, 26 homers, 71 RBI, 5 triples, 93 runs, 13 stolen bases, and a .370 OBP in 154 games. His BA, homers, RBI, runs, stolen bases, and games played numbers in '10 were all career highs. He also was great defensively, posting an above-average .988 Fld%. Johnson is a very good player. His backups at second base with be middle-infield backups Ryan Roberts and Tony Abreu. Roberts has a .992 career Fld% at second base, and he can hit a little bit too. He hit just .197 in '10, but he hit .279 with 7 homers and 25 RBI in '09. Abreu is basically the 25th-man on the roster. He has a .251 career BA, but just a .279 OBP. He plays second, third, and short, but he's a disaster defensively at all three positions. The D-backs have a nice situation at second, having a really good player in Johnson as the starter and nice defensive depth behind him in Roberts.
Third base:
The D-backs currently have Melvin Mora penciled in as their starting third baseman. He will turn 39 in a couple of weeks. Not good. In their defense, he did have a decent season with the Rockies in '10, hitting .285 with 12 doubles, 7 homers, 45 RBI, 5 triples, and a .358 OBP in 113 games. He even posted a slightly-above average .957 Fld% at third base, but with Derek Jeter-esque range acording to Bill James' range factor per 9 innings and range factor per game stats. I want to say that he's a stop-gap for some good prospect, but their only decent third base prospect who's anywhere near the majors, Ryan Wheeler, played just 19 games at Double-A in '10 after playing in 113 at High-A. He did do well offensively, (.280, 28 doubles, 12 homers, 67 RBI, .337 OBP) and survive defensively (.949 Fld%), but he's a ways away. For now, Mora will be backed up by Geoff Blum, who hit .267 with the Astros in '10 with a significantly above-average .976 Fld% at third base. But, he'll turn 38 in April. The D-backs are very old at third base, and with no help coming in the near future, they'll just have to hope that Mora and Blum hold up.
Shortstop:
The D-backs recently signed their arbitration-eligible shortstop Stephen Drew to a two year, 13.75 million dollar deal. Good for them; he's a good all-around player. Drew isn't quite a five-tool player, but he does a little bit of everything. He's a decent hitter for average (.278 in '10), decent hitter for power (33 doubles, 15 homers, 61 RBI), he has nice speed (10 stolen bases and 12 triples), he's a good fielder (a .984 Fld%, 3rd in the NL and 3rd in the NL in putouts by a SS), and he has a nice arm (2nd in the NL in assists by a SS). He also had 83 runs, which doesn't really fit under any category (if you want to say it's part of speed, keep in mind that Mark Teixeira led the AL in runs in '10). His backups will be Roberts and Abreu. Good luck with that. Roberts has never played shortstop in the majors and has just a .959 career Fld% there in the minors. Stephen Drew is a very good shortstop for the D-backs, but there isn't much depth behind him.
Left Field:
Newly signed outfielder Xavier Nady is currently lined up as the D-backs' starting left fielder, although he could wind up playing first base if both Allen and Miranda don't play well in spring training. In a backup role for the Cubs, Nady hit .256 with 13 doubles, 6 homers, 33 RBI, and just a .306 OBP in 119 games (347 AB's). Nady missed nearly all of '09 with an elbow injury one year after having a career year in '08, hitting .297 with 37 doubles, 25 homers, 97 RBI, and a .357 OBP in 148 games between the Pirates and Yankees. From '05 to '08, Nady hit .284 with an average of 26 doubles, 19 homers, 69 RBI, and a .339 OBP per season. The D-backs are hoping that with another starting role, Nady will be able to get back to somewhere near those numbers. Defensively, Nady posted just a .970 Fld% in the outfield in '10, and has just a .966 career Fld% in left field. He better Nady's backups will be Gerardo Parra and Cole Gillespie. Parra was Arizona's primary left fielder in '10 as well as '09, but his performance in '10 didn't warrant him being the starter again. Parra was decent in '09, hitting .290 with 21 doubles, 5 homers, 60 RBI, 8 triples, 5 stolen bases (7 CS), and a .324 OBP in 124 games. He posted a below-average .978 Fld% in LF. That was good enough. His .261 BA and .308 OBP in '10 were certainly not. He set career highs in just two stats: games played (133) and HBP's (2). He hit 19 doubles, 3 homers, 30 RBI, and 6 triples. He did slightly improve his Fld% in LF to .981. Good move by the D-backs to have the guts to replace a young player with a veteran even though Parra wasn't that bad. Gillespie hit .231 with 8 doubles, 2 homers, 12 RBI, and a .283 OBP in 45 games. He posted a perfect 1.000 Fld% in CF and RF, but just a .969 Fld% in LF, although he did make just 1 error. The D-backs need Xavier Nady to get back to his previous numbers when he was a starting outfielder for the Padres, Mets, Pirates, and Yankees, but they do have decent depth behind him.
Centerfield:
In centerfield, the D-backs have a very good four-tool player in Chris Young. Young hit just .257 in '10, but with 33 doubles, 27 homers, 91 RBI, 94 runs, 28 stolen bases, and a .341 OBP in 156 games. Defensively, he showcased his arm with 10 outfield assists including 6 double plays, although his great arm did lead to just a .984 Fld%. Young's low batting averages got him in trouble in '10, when he hit just .212 with 15 homers and just 42 RBI. Even though Young is a four-tool player, he better put up a decent batting average in order to take advantage of those tools (if you don't hit, you won't hit for power and you won't be able to steal bases, and you'll be benched so you won't be able to take advantage of your defensive tools). Parra will be his backup. If Young can hit for just a decent average, centerfield will be one of the strongest positions for Arizona.
Right field:
Amid all the trade rumors, I'm sure at least a few people forgot that D-backs RF Justin Upton had an off year. He hit .273 with 27 doubles, 17 homers, 69 RBI, 18 SB, and a .356 OBP in 133 games. He hit .300 with 26 homers, 86 RBI, 20 stolen bases, and a .366 OBP in '09. As opposed to his offensive regression from '09 to '10, Upton was much better defensively, posting a .985 Fld% in '10 compared to .961 although he had just 1 assist compared to 4. Bill James' defensive metrics showed that Upton displayed great range. He had an off-year, but he's still a very good player. He'll be backed up by Parra and Gillespie. Upton is a great five-tool talent and the D-backs hope he can get back to using all five of those tools in '10.
Starting Rotation:
The D-backs' de facto ace is 26 year old right-hander and ex-Yankee Ian Kennedy. In his first full year as a starter, Kennedy did pretty well, going just 9-10, but with a 3.80 ERA and 168 K's compared to just 70 walks in 32 starts and 194 IP. He allowed just 163 hits for a 7.6 H/9 ratio, good for 9th-best in the NL. Kennedy certainly had his problems, though. He allowed 26 home runs, 7th in the NL, he hit 10 batters, 3rd in the league, and he threw 16 wild pitches, good for most in the league. Still, Kennedy was pretty unhittable, although he was certainly helped by a .261 BA on balls in play (BAbip; league average is around .300). Kennedy also out-hit one of Arizona's top power hitters this past season (Mark Reynolds, who was traded to Baltimore), hitting .204 with 2 RBI and a .290 OBP. Baseball-Reference gave him a 0.4 WAR (wins above replacement) hitting, and add that onto his 2.7 WAR pitching WAR, and he had a nice 3.1 WAR season. Kennedy was a bit lucky in '10 and certainly has some things to work on, but the D-backs hope his return to 'average' luck in '10 will be canceled out by his maturity as a pitcher.
The D-backs have to hope that they'll get some better production out of Joe Saunders, acquired in the Dan Haren trade. Saunders, a right-hander who will turn 30 in June, went just 9-17 between the LA Angels (of Anaheim) and the D-backs with a 4.47 ERA, 114 K's, and 64 walks in 33 starts and amazingly, 203.1 IP, the first time he has ever gone over 200 innings in a season. He went 3-7 with a 4.25 ERA for the D-backs. Saunders' main problem in '10 was hits allowed: he allowed 10.3 hits per 9 innings. But, that goes right along with his 9.7 career H/9. Saunders is a two-time 16 game winner (17 in '08 and 16 in '09), although his career ERA is just 4.29 and he has that bad H/9. In terms of hitting, there's not much to talk about. He hit just .087 with an RBI for the D-backs, although he did somehow steal a base. The D-backs just hope that Saunders can somehow maintain that 4.25 ERA he had in his 13 starts for them after they acquired him.
The Diamondbacks found lighting in a bottle with 23 year old right-hander Daniel Hudson in '10 (he will turn 24 in March). Hudson went 1-1 with a 6.32 ERA in 3 starts for the White Sox, but after the D-backs acquired him in the Edwin Jackson trade, he went 7-1 with a 1.69 ERA, 70 K's and just 16 walks in 11 starts and 79.2 IP. He allowed just 51 hits, good for a staggering 5.8 H/9. If Kennedy was unhittable, this guy was unstoppable. But, there are two factors that discourage me from thinking that Hudson is a ridiculous pitcher who will be dominating hitters for years to come: 1) he managed a 3.47 ERA in 93.1 Triple-A innings, which is OK, not great (although he did strike out 108 batters); and 2) he allowed just a .243 BAbip. How lucky is Hudson? Well besides that .243 BAbip, he also had 6 RBI despite just 4 hits (.148 BA). There's almost no way Hudson will manage another BAbip under .250, so the D-backs should just be hoping for that 3.47 ERA he posted at Triple-A. If Hudson puts that up, he might be the ace or number two starter on this team, but I'm placing him 3rd behind Kennedy and Saunders because I'm just really scared of what could happen if he allows a league average .300 BAbip.
There are three pitchers in contention for the last two spots in the Arizona rotation: Barry Enright, Zach Duke, and the recently acquired Armanda Galarraga. Enright, who will turn 25 in March went 6-7 with a 3.91 ERA, 49 K's, and 29 BB in 17 starts and 99 IP for the D-backs in '10. But, you have to be very worried about his 4.5 K/9 and terrible 1.8 HR/9 ratios. He also allowed just a .254 BAbip. But, he did have a 7.3 K/9 in the minors including an 8.9 K/9 at Double-A in '10. Enright is far from a sure thing, but you would think he could manage a decent ERA, at least under 4.50, if he can get that strikeout rate up to somewhere near his minor league levels. Hitting-wise, Enright was pretty incredible, hitting .252 with 6 RBI. While Enright was lucky, ex-Pirate Zack Duke was the exact opposite. Duke, 28 in April, went just 8-15 with a horrendous 5.72 ERA, 96 K's, and 51 walks in 29 starts, but just 159 IP. He allowed 212 hits, 12 per 9 innings, and 25 homers, 1.4 per 9, which isn't so bad unless you consider that Duke had the 3rd-best HR/9 ratio in the NL a few years ago. But, Duke is not as bad as the stats say he is. He had a crazy .343 BAbip. If that went down .300, Duke would have had at least a decent year. Duke posted a 4.95 FIP (fielding-independent pitching), which isn't great, or even good, but it's a heck of a lot better than his 5.72 ERA. Duke is not that bad of a pitcher. Duke hit just .063 with no RBI in '10, although he did have 8 sac bunts. There's almost no way Duke would be a complete disaster with an ERA over 5.20 as the D-backs' 5th starter. Galarraga, who recently turned 30, is what he is. He had his one moment in the limelight when Jim Joyce ruined his perfect game, but he went just 4-9 with a 4.49 ERA, just 74 strikeouts, and 51 walks in 24 starts, an RA (relief appearance), and 144.1 IP. He allowed 21 homers, a 1.3 HR/9, and 143 hits, an 8.9 H/9 ratio. He's an OK pitcher. He doesn't strike enough batters out to allow over 3 walks per 9 innings and nearly a hit per inning. At his best, Galarraga went 13-7 with a 3.78 ERA, 126 K's, and 61 walks in 28 starts, 2 RA's (relief appearances), and 178.2 IP. At his worst in '09, he went 6-10 with a 5.64 ERA, 95 K's, and 67 walks in 25 starts, 4 RA's, and 143.2 IP. Factoring the switch to the NL, Galarraga will probably post something like a 4.30 ERA. That's OK, but if Enright gets straightened out or Duke returns to his '09 form (4.06 ERA in 213 IP), they would certainly be better. We'll see what happens in spring training, but I think Enright and Duke should be the 4th and 5th starters, at least to begin the year, with Galarraga, who does have some relief experience, serving as a long reliever.
Bullpen:
Righty Juan Gutierrez had a really bad season, going 0-6 with a 5.08 ERA, 47 K's, 23 walks, 8 holds, and 15 saves in 58 RA's and 56.2 IP. Good thing he won't have to close again... at least you would think so. He posted a 6.87 ERA before previous closer Chad Qualls was traded compared to a 1.45 ERA after. What? That has to be an encouraging sign for the D-backs. He adjusted and had great success in his new role. Hopefully he can use that new experience of success in a late inning role to help him spring forward to a great 2011. Aaron Heilman went 5-8 with a 4.50 ERA, 55 K's, 26 walks, 12 holds, and 6 saves in 70 RA's and 72 IP. There has to be at least some worry that Heilman will collapse at age 32 after 5 straight seasons with over 70 appearances. Sam Demel, 25, went 2-1 with a 5.35 ERA, 33 K's, 12 walks, 4 holds, and 2 saves (0 blown saves) in 37 RA's and 37 IP. His main problem was that he allowed more than a hit per inning, although he did have a .325 BAbip. He posted an 8.0 K/9 and a great 2.9 BB/9, although he did allow 5 homers, 1.2 per 9. He could be a decent reliever in '11 for the D-backs if he just has 'average' luck. 27 year old right-hander Esmerling Vazquez had a just plain terrible season in '10. He appeared in 57 games, going 1-6 with a 5.20 ERA, 55 K's, 38 BB, and 6 holds in 53.2 IP. He simply walked too many batters, 6.4 per 9. That's a bit of a problem. He did post a 4.42 ERA in 53 RA's in '09, so the D-backs have to be optimistic that Vazquez wasn't as bad as his 2010 stats say he is. In exchange for Mark Reynolds, the D-backs acquired right-handers David Hernandez and Kam Mickolio from the Orioles. Hernandez, who wil turn 26 in May, went 8-8 with a 4.31 ERA, 72 K's, 42 walks, 2 holds, and 2 saves in 33 RA, 8 starts, and 79.1 IP. Those are decent stats. But, as a reliever, he was pretty solid, going 7-3 with a 3.16 ERA, and 45 K's compared to just 13 walks. Hernandez did pitch in mostly low leverage situations (hence the 2 holds, and not more), but he still had a nice season as a reliever and he's moving from the AL East to the NL West, so he could be a very effective reliever for the Diamondbacks. Mickolio, who will turn 27 in May, is a different story. He posted a 7.36 ERA in 3 RA's in '10. He even posted a 6.37 ERA in 30 appearances at Triple-A in '10! That's not good. Mickolio did post a 3.50 ERA in 35 Triple-A appearances in '09 and a 1.80 ERA in 17 appearances there in '08. He also posted a 2.63 ERA with 2 holds in 11 RA's for the Orioles in '09. Mickolio can't be that bad of a reliever. His ML numbers in '10 were such a small sample size, and he had just had a terrible off-year at Triple-A. I would expect something like his 4.32 career ERA in the majors. You have to notice that every reliever besides Hernandez posted an ERA 4.50 or higher in '10. You have to be worried about that.
Closer:
J.J. Putz is lined up to close for the D-backs in '11. Putz had an outstanding season as the setup man for the White Sox, going 7-5 with a 2.83 ERA, 65 strikeouts, just 15 walks, 14 holds, and 3 saves in 60 RA's and 54 IP. His last full season as a closer was 2007, when he went 6-1 with a 1.38 ERA, 82 K's, just 13 walks, and 40 saves in 68 RA's and 71.2 IP. It's a bad sign that he hasn't been a full-time closer since '07, but I think he'll be OK because of his great '10, and because at least he does have experience in the role. Plus, he's moving to the NL West. He should be fine at closer for the D-backs, saving 35 or 40 games with an ERA 2.90 or less.
Overview:
The D-backs have a decent offense, but they'll need a big bounce-back year from Justin Upton and continued success from Chris Young. The D-backs are decent defensively, but they have potential problems at the corner infield spots. The rotation is slightly below-average at best, and the bullpen is terrible, even though Putz will probably be great. The D-backs need everything to go right to contend in '11.
2010 record: 65-97, 5th in the NL West
Prediction: 70- 92, 5th in the NL West
The D-backs will contend if... Upton and Young have breakout seasons, Brandon Allen is a contender for Rookie of the Year, Mora somehow holds down 3rd base, Ian Kennedy keeps improving, Daniel Hudson still posts an ERA under 3.00, the 4th and 5th starters are surprises in a good way, and the bullpen doesn't completely collapse like it did in 2010.
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
Gil Meche's sudden retirement shows that pitch counts do matter
For those of you who think that pitch counts are a complete joke, you're wrong.
On June 16th, 2009, Gil Meche had one of the best starts of his career. Through 8 innings, he had allowed no runs, and just 4 hits while striking out 5 and walking just one. He had thrown 110 pitches. Instead of bringing in a reliever to pitch the 9th in a 5-0 game, Royals manager Trey Hillman kept Meche in their. Meche retired the side 1-2-3 to complete his complete-game shutout, but he used 22 pitches to do so, finishing with 132 pitches on the day.
Gil Meche has retired from baseball at the age of 32. He said that he retired because of a shoulder injury that would have required surgery. After that fateful day, June 16th, 2009, Meche went just 2-10 with a 6.86 ERA. He was never the same after throwing 132 pitches in that game.
All the young pitchers are protected. They have innings limits and pitch count limits. Maybe so should the veterans too, to some extent.
Not all pitchers are Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia, or Cliff Lee. A lot of pitchers are much more fragile. The Mariners and the Royals weren't careful at all with Meche.
Two years after making his major league debut with the Mariners in 1999, Meche didn't appear in any major league games in 2001 and 2002 after undergoing Tommy John Surgery. In 2003, he pitched 186.1 innings (going 15-3 with a 4.59 ERA), but he posted just a 6.19 ERA after June 20th. He had surpassed his career high for innings in the majors (he had thrown 175.2 innings between the majors and minors in 1999) in that June 20th start which lowered his ERA to 2.89. Fine, Meche only surpassed his career high for innings by just 9.2 IP, but remember that he was just coming off of Tommy John surgery. I'm not saying that the Mariners should have limited him so much after already missing two years to the surgery, but they shouldn't have let him surpass his career high for innings pitched.
In 2004, the Mariners seemingly made an adjustment for Meche, allowing him to throw just 127.2 major league innings, but don't be fooled- he pitched 57 innings at Triple-A as well. (He actually posted a higher ERA, 5.05, at Triple-A than in the majors, 5.01.) Finally in 2005, he was limited to just 143.1 IP, but he still posted a 5.09 ERA. Despite his second-straight year with an ERA over 5.00, the Mariners stuck with him in the last year under their control in '06, allowing him to throw a career high 186.2 innings, and he did pretty well, going 11-8 with a 4.48 ERA.
After the '06 season, the Royals made the stupid decision of signing Meche to a 5 year, 55 million dollar contract. But, after the first year of the contract, the Royals had appeared to make at least a decent deal. Meche had his best season, throwing a career-high 216 innings and going just 9-13 for the hapless Royals, but posting a 3.67 ERA, tying his career high for strikeouts (156), and walking just 62 batters for a great ratio of just 2.6 per 9 innings (he had a 4.0 career BB/9 ratio before '07). In '08, Meche did something few players can do: win 14 games on the Royals. He was the first one to win 14 games on the Royals since Paul Byrd in 2002. (Obviously Zach Greinke did it in his Cy Young season in '09 as well.) Meche went 14-11 with a 3.98 ERA and a career-high 183 K's in 34 starts and 210.1 IP.
Through June 17th, 2009, Meche seemed to be on pace for his best season. Through 14 starts he had a 3.31 ERA and 67 strikeouts compared to 31 walks in 84.1 IP. But, after his 132-pitch complete game shutout on June 16th, Meche went just 2-5 with an 8.46 ERA. A good pitcher never just collapses like that at age 30. It was the 132 pitches.
In 2010, Meche went just 0-5 with a 5.69 ERA and just 41 strikeouts versus 38 walks in 9 starts, 11 relief appearances, and 61.2 IP. He missed from May 25th to September 1st with his shoulder injury. His career was over at age 32 (his 32nd birthday was September 8th).
What's the message here? Two things: 1) you have to be somewhat careful with any pitcher who underwent Tommy John surgery, and 2) no pitcher should be kept in for over 130 pitches except when ABSOLUTELY necessary. I'm not saying that pitchers who have undergone Tommy John surgery shouldn't throw 200 innings, but you have to let him work back up to a regular big league workload. Meche's career was sidetracked because the Mariners let him throw 186.1 innings right after coming back from Tommy John surgery. Then, after the Royals acquired him, they let him throw 216 innings, a jump of 30 innings from '06 to '07 and 50 IP over his average the previous two years. He was still 28 when the Royals got him, and even though they signed him to a big contract to be their ace, the Royals had to limit him somewhat to make sure that he could hold up all 5 years and still be effective. They didn't limit him at all, and not only was he not durable the past two years, but he couldn't even last the entirety of his contract. If I was the Royals I would have limited him to 200 innings in '07 and then let him pitch much a few more that that in '08 and around the same the rest of his deal. Again, they didn't and it cost them.
Let's go back to the trio above: Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia, and Cliff Lee. We know all of them as innings eaters who often finish games. Halladay has thrown 130 or pitches in a game three times, one time each of the past three seasons. CC has throw over 130 pitches in a game just once in his career, during his wild card chase with the Brewers in '08. Cliff Lee has NEVER thrown 130 or more pitches in a game. Even for veterans, you can't throw pitch counts completely out the window. In non-must-win games, no pitcher should throw 130 or more pitches in a game, even if they're throwing a no-hitter (I'm talking to you, D-backs, about Edwin Jackson who you let throw a crazy 149 pitches in his 8-walk no-hitter).
We know that there are many young pitchers right now who could become the next Gil Meche by being overworked, especially after Tommy John surgery, and being forced to retire early. Teams, don't let that happen.
On June 16th, 2009, Gil Meche had one of the best starts of his career. Through 8 innings, he had allowed no runs, and just 4 hits while striking out 5 and walking just one. He had thrown 110 pitches. Instead of bringing in a reliever to pitch the 9th in a 5-0 game, Royals manager Trey Hillman kept Meche in their. Meche retired the side 1-2-3 to complete his complete-game shutout, but he used 22 pitches to do so, finishing with 132 pitches on the day.
Gil Meche has retired from baseball at the age of 32. He said that he retired because of a shoulder injury that would have required surgery. After that fateful day, June 16th, 2009, Meche went just 2-10 with a 6.86 ERA. He was never the same after throwing 132 pitches in that game.
All the young pitchers are protected. They have innings limits and pitch count limits. Maybe so should the veterans too, to some extent.
Not all pitchers are Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia, or Cliff Lee. A lot of pitchers are much more fragile. The Mariners and the Royals weren't careful at all with Meche.
Two years after making his major league debut with the Mariners in 1999, Meche didn't appear in any major league games in 2001 and 2002 after undergoing Tommy John Surgery. In 2003, he pitched 186.1 innings (going 15-3 with a 4.59 ERA), but he posted just a 6.19 ERA after June 20th. He had surpassed his career high for innings in the majors (he had thrown 175.2 innings between the majors and minors in 1999) in that June 20th start which lowered his ERA to 2.89. Fine, Meche only surpassed his career high for innings by just 9.2 IP, but remember that he was just coming off of Tommy John surgery. I'm not saying that the Mariners should have limited him so much after already missing two years to the surgery, but they shouldn't have let him surpass his career high for innings pitched.
In 2004, the Mariners seemingly made an adjustment for Meche, allowing him to throw just 127.2 major league innings, but don't be fooled- he pitched 57 innings at Triple-A as well. (He actually posted a higher ERA, 5.05, at Triple-A than in the majors, 5.01.) Finally in 2005, he was limited to just 143.1 IP, but he still posted a 5.09 ERA. Despite his second-straight year with an ERA over 5.00, the Mariners stuck with him in the last year under their control in '06, allowing him to throw a career high 186.2 innings, and he did pretty well, going 11-8 with a 4.48 ERA.
After the '06 season, the Royals made the stupid decision of signing Meche to a 5 year, 55 million dollar contract. But, after the first year of the contract, the Royals had appeared to make at least a decent deal. Meche had his best season, throwing a career-high 216 innings and going just 9-13 for the hapless Royals, but posting a 3.67 ERA, tying his career high for strikeouts (156), and walking just 62 batters for a great ratio of just 2.6 per 9 innings (he had a 4.0 career BB/9 ratio before '07). In '08, Meche did something few players can do: win 14 games on the Royals. He was the first one to win 14 games on the Royals since Paul Byrd in 2002. (Obviously Zach Greinke did it in his Cy Young season in '09 as well.) Meche went 14-11 with a 3.98 ERA and a career-high 183 K's in 34 starts and 210.1 IP.
Through June 17th, 2009, Meche seemed to be on pace for his best season. Through 14 starts he had a 3.31 ERA and 67 strikeouts compared to 31 walks in 84.1 IP. But, after his 132-pitch complete game shutout on June 16th, Meche went just 2-5 with an 8.46 ERA. A good pitcher never just collapses like that at age 30. It was the 132 pitches.
In 2010, Meche went just 0-5 with a 5.69 ERA and just 41 strikeouts versus 38 walks in 9 starts, 11 relief appearances, and 61.2 IP. He missed from May 25th to September 1st with his shoulder injury. His career was over at age 32 (his 32nd birthday was September 8th).
What's the message here? Two things: 1) you have to be somewhat careful with any pitcher who underwent Tommy John surgery, and 2) no pitcher should be kept in for over 130 pitches except when ABSOLUTELY necessary. I'm not saying that pitchers who have undergone Tommy John surgery shouldn't throw 200 innings, but you have to let him work back up to a regular big league workload. Meche's career was sidetracked because the Mariners let him throw 186.1 innings right after coming back from Tommy John surgery. Then, after the Royals acquired him, they let him throw 216 innings, a jump of 30 innings from '06 to '07 and 50 IP over his average the previous two years. He was still 28 when the Royals got him, and even though they signed him to a big contract to be their ace, the Royals had to limit him somewhat to make sure that he could hold up all 5 years and still be effective. They didn't limit him at all, and not only was he not durable the past two years, but he couldn't even last the entirety of his contract. If I was the Royals I would have limited him to 200 innings in '07 and then let him pitch much a few more that that in '08 and around the same the rest of his deal. Again, they didn't and it cost them.
Let's go back to the trio above: Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia, and Cliff Lee. We know all of them as innings eaters who often finish games. Halladay has thrown 130 or pitches in a game three times, one time each of the past three seasons. CC has throw over 130 pitches in a game just once in his career, during his wild card chase with the Brewers in '08. Cliff Lee has NEVER thrown 130 or more pitches in a game. Even for veterans, you can't throw pitch counts completely out the window. In non-must-win games, no pitcher should throw 130 or more pitches in a game, even if they're throwing a no-hitter (I'm talking to you, D-backs, about Edwin Jackson who you let throw a crazy 149 pitches in his 8-walk no-hitter).
We know that there are many young pitchers right now who could become the next Gil Meche by being overworked, especially after Tommy John surgery, and being forced to retire early. Teams, don't let that happen.
Monday, January 17, 2011
What does the Soriano signing mean for Joba?
As soon as the Yankees signed ex-Rays closer to a three year deal (with two out-clauses), everybody started asking about Joba Chamberlain. Should they trade him? Should they made him a starter again? Let's figure out what the Yankees should do with Joba (not that they necessarily will do what I say) by looking at his stats and the Yankee bullpen as a whole.
Contrary to popular belief, Joba didn't have terrible season in '10. He went 3-4 with a 4.40 ERA, and 77 K's in 73 relief appearances in 71.2 IP. He recorded 25 holds and 3 saves. Joba didn't do anything that typical bad relievers do. He allowed just 6 homers, 0.8 per 9 innings, and walked 22, 2.8 per 9. His strikeout to walk ratio was a staggering 3.50! But he allowed 71 hits, 8.9 per 9. You just can't allow that many hits as a reliever. Still, that's his only real problem. If he reverses that trend, he will be an effective reliever.
Let's look at the entire Yankee bullpen to see if Joba is still needed in the bullpen. Mariano Rivera (3-3, 1.80 ERA, 33 saves in '10) is as good as ever. Soriano is outstanding as well (3-2, 1.73, 45 saves, and 11-20, 2.73, 88 saves in his career). Robertson (4-5, 3.82, 14 holds) was outstanding from June on (4-3, 2.58, 8 holds). Logan (2-0, 2.93, 13 holds) was solid as a lefty specialist. So was Pedro Feliciano (3-6, 3.30, 23 holds) for the Mets. Sergio Mitre (0-3, 3.33, 1 hold) even had his share of success. Those are the guys who will for sure be in the Yankee bullpen. Then, you can add in Damaso Marte (0-0, 4.08, 9 holds) when he comes back from a shoulder injury. Also, the Yankees signed Mark Prior (hey, you never know) who will probably be a reliever, Neal Cotts (0-2, 4.29, 10 holds in '08 before struggling to a 7.36 ERA in '09 in 19 games and undergoing Tommy John surgery and suffering a hip injury, causing him to miss all of '10), and Brian Schlitter (0-1, 12.38 in 7 big league appearances, but 2-1, 3.15, 13 saves at Triple-A). All three are ex-Cubs (thank you Larry Rothschild). The Yankees have also acquired or called up (in no particular order) Ryan Pope (4-6, 4.20, 17 saves at Double-A), Andy Sisco (4-4, 4.32 at Double-A), Brian Anderson (a converted outfielder who went 0-0 2.08 in the minor in '10, including a 2.57 ERA at Triple-A), Buddy Carlyle (2-0, 3.59, somehow 0 holds in '08, but posted an 8.86 ERA in '09 and went to Japan for '10), Daniel Turpen (7-6, 4.30, 4 saves), and lefty Robert Fish (2-0, 1.12 at High-A, but then a scary 8.93 ERA at Double-A). The Yankees have a lot of bullpen candidates. Do they need Joba? Why couldn't a healthy Prior or Pope put up a 4.40 ERA for the Yankees?
So now it may be down to trading Joba are making him a starter (again). How has Joba done as a starter? He's 12-7 with a 4.18 ERA and 206 K's in 43 career starts and 221.2 IP. He went 9-6 with a 4.78 ERA and 133 K's in 31 starts in the Yankees' championship season of '09. That's certainly not great, but it could be an upgrade over the other 5th starter candidates (see this post: Are the Yankees doomed without Pettitte?).
So, what should the Yankees do with Joba? What I would do is stretch out Joba over spring training and give him a chance to win the 5th starter job. If he does win the job and is at least somewhat successful, then great. If not, some team will want to trade for him.
Contrary to popular belief, Joba didn't have terrible season in '10. He went 3-4 with a 4.40 ERA, and 77 K's in 73 relief appearances in 71.2 IP. He recorded 25 holds and 3 saves. Joba didn't do anything that typical bad relievers do. He allowed just 6 homers, 0.8 per 9 innings, and walked 22, 2.8 per 9. His strikeout to walk ratio was a staggering 3.50! But he allowed 71 hits, 8.9 per 9. You just can't allow that many hits as a reliever. Still, that's his only real problem. If he reverses that trend, he will be an effective reliever.
Let's look at the entire Yankee bullpen to see if Joba is still needed in the bullpen. Mariano Rivera (3-3, 1.80 ERA, 33 saves in '10) is as good as ever. Soriano is outstanding as well (3-2, 1.73, 45 saves, and 11-20, 2.73, 88 saves in his career). Robertson (4-5, 3.82, 14 holds) was outstanding from June on (4-3, 2.58, 8 holds). Logan (2-0, 2.93, 13 holds) was solid as a lefty specialist. So was Pedro Feliciano (3-6, 3.30, 23 holds) for the Mets. Sergio Mitre (0-3, 3.33, 1 hold) even had his share of success. Those are the guys who will for sure be in the Yankee bullpen. Then, you can add in Damaso Marte (0-0, 4.08, 9 holds) when he comes back from a shoulder injury. Also, the Yankees signed Mark Prior (hey, you never know) who will probably be a reliever, Neal Cotts (0-2, 4.29, 10 holds in '08 before struggling to a 7.36 ERA in '09 in 19 games and undergoing Tommy John surgery and suffering a hip injury, causing him to miss all of '10), and Brian Schlitter (0-1, 12.38 in 7 big league appearances, but 2-1, 3.15, 13 saves at Triple-A). All three are ex-Cubs (thank you Larry Rothschild). The Yankees have also acquired or called up (in no particular order) Ryan Pope (4-6, 4.20, 17 saves at Double-A), Andy Sisco (4-4, 4.32 at Double-A), Brian Anderson (a converted outfielder who went 0-0 2.08 in the minor in '10, including a 2.57 ERA at Triple-A), Buddy Carlyle (2-0, 3.59, somehow 0 holds in '08, but posted an 8.86 ERA in '09 and went to Japan for '10), Daniel Turpen (7-6, 4.30, 4 saves), and lefty Robert Fish (2-0, 1.12 at High-A, but then a scary 8.93 ERA at Double-A). The Yankees have a lot of bullpen candidates. Do they need Joba? Why couldn't a healthy Prior or Pope put up a 4.40 ERA for the Yankees?
So now it may be down to trading Joba are making him a starter (again). How has Joba done as a starter? He's 12-7 with a 4.18 ERA and 206 K's in 43 career starts and 221.2 IP. He went 9-6 with a 4.78 ERA and 133 K's in 31 starts in the Yankees' championship season of '09. That's certainly not great, but it could be an upgrade over the other 5th starter candidates (see this post: Are the Yankees doomed without Pettitte?).
So, what should the Yankees do with Joba? What I would do is stretch out Joba over spring training and give him a chance to win the 5th starter job. If he does win the job and is at least somewhat successful, then great. If not, some team will want to trade for him.
Monday, January 10, 2011
Phillies-Astros trade
The Philadelphia Phillies have traded left-hander Sergio Escalona to the Houston Astros for minor league infielder Albert Cartwright.
Escalona is a 26 year old lefty reliever who made his major league debut in 2009, but spent all of 2010 in the minors. He did OK with the Phillies in '09, going 1-0 with a 4.61 ERA in 14 relief appearances. He struck out 10 and walked 5 in 13.2 IP. Escalona even allowed 12 hits, less than one per inning, and he didn't allow a single home run. So why did he have a 4.61 ERA? He had 3 appearances with an ERA over 9 and didn't allow any other runs. Among those bad appearances was a real disaster in which he allowed 3 runs in a third of an inning for an 81.00 ERA. That appearance raised his ERA from 2.16 to 5.19. Based on that, you would think he could be a decent lefty in the Houston bullpen. But, based on his minor league perfomances, you wouldn't be so sure. After allowing a 1.77 ERA in 32 relief appearances at Double-A in '09, he posted a terrible 5.95 ERA in 14 relief appearances and a start that same season at Triple-A. In '10, he returned to Double-A, but posted just a 3.81 ERA. The Astros are banking a lot on his brief MLB service. But, based on his good strikeout rate in the minors (9.0, including 8.8 in '10), walk rate (4.0, but 3.6 in '10), hits allowed ratio (8.5 per 9, but 7.6 in '10), and homer rate (0.5 per 9, but 1.0 in '10) you would think he has a chance to be a good lefty reliever.
Cartwright is a very interesting prospect. He wasn't even in the Astros' organizational depth chart in the 2010 Baseball America Prospect Handbook. (Escalona was an unranked reliever in the Phillies' organizational depth chart.) But, he had a breakout season in '10, hitting .294 with 30 doubles, 10 homers, 55 RBI, 14 triples (wow!), 87 runs, 31 stolen bases, and a .355 OBP in 127 games between High-A and Double-A. But, he hit just .229 at Double-A. Defensively, he posted just a .953 Fld% at second base, making 29 errors. In 2011 at age 23, he'll have to return to Double-A. The Phillies are certainly taking a worthwhile risk in acquiring Cartwright. They hope that he can continue to put it all together offensively and improve defensively. If he can do that, he will prime trade bait, and/or insurance if Chase Utley gets hurt again.
This trade makes sense for both sides. The Astros are getting a reliever that can help them now, while the Phillies are getting an infielder that could help them in the future. Both teams are banking on a relatively small sample size from their acquired players. The Astros hope Escalona can at least match his '09 numbers in the majors, while the Phillies hope that Cartwright has another great season in 2011. This is an upside trade for the Phillies- they are trading a low upside reliever for a high-upside second baseman. Meanwhile, the Astros are getting a bullpen piece for now, rather than a minor leaguer who has only one good minor league season on his resume, and will likely not pan out.
Escalona is a 26 year old lefty reliever who made his major league debut in 2009, but spent all of 2010 in the minors. He did OK with the Phillies in '09, going 1-0 with a 4.61 ERA in 14 relief appearances. He struck out 10 and walked 5 in 13.2 IP. Escalona even allowed 12 hits, less than one per inning, and he didn't allow a single home run. So why did he have a 4.61 ERA? He had 3 appearances with an ERA over 9 and didn't allow any other runs. Among those bad appearances was a real disaster in which he allowed 3 runs in a third of an inning for an 81.00 ERA. That appearance raised his ERA from 2.16 to 5.19. Based on that, you would think he could be a decent lefty in the Houston bullpen. But, based on his minor league perfomances, you wouldn't be so sure. After allowing a 1.77 ERA in 32 relief appearances at Double-A in '09, he posted a terrible 5.95 ERA in 14 relief appearances and a start that same season at Triple-A. In '10, he returned to Double-A, but posted just a 3.81 ERA. The Astros are banking a lot on his brief MLB service. But, based on his good strikeout rate in the minors (9.0, including 8.8 in '10), walk rate (4.0, but 3.6 in '10), hits allowed ratio (8.5 per 9, but 7.6 in '10), and homer rate (0.5 per 9, but 1.0 in '10) you would think he has a chance to be a good lefty reliever.
Cartwright is a very interesting prospect. He wasn't even in the Astros' organizational depth chart in the 2010 Baseball America Prospect Handbook. (Escalona was an unranked reliever in the Phillies' organizational depth chart.) But, he had a breakout season in '10, hitting .294 with 30 doubles, 10 homers, 55 RBI, 14 triples (wow!), 87 runs, 31 stolen bases, and a .355 OBP in 127 games between High-A and Double-A. But, he hit just .229 at Double-A. Defensively, he posted just a .953 Fld% at second base, making 29 errors. In 2011 at age 23, he'll have to return to Double-A. The Phillies are certainly taking a worthwhile risk in acquiring Cartwright. They hope that he can continue to put it all together offensively and improve defensively. If he can do that, he will prime trade bait, and/or insurance if Chase Utley gets hurt again.
This trade makes sense for both sides. The Astros are getting a reliever that can help them now, while the Phillies are getting an infielder that could help them in the future. Both teams are banking on a relatively small sample size from their acquired players. The Astros hope Escalona can at least match his '09 numbers in the majors, while the Phillies hope that Cartwright has another great season in 2011. This is an upside trade for the Phillies- they are trading a low upside reliever for a high-upside second baseman. Meanwhile, the Astros are getting a bullpen piece for now, rather than a minor leaguer who has only one good minor league season on his resume, and will likely not pan out.
Sunday, January 9, 2011
Crazy Rangers-A's (-Pirates?) trade
Just Billy Beane doin' work. The Oakland A's have acquired right-handed reliever Guillermo Moscoso from the Texas Rangers in exchange for minor league right-handed reliever Ryan Kelly. Kelly was acquired from Pittsburgh in late December, so he never pitched a single game in the A's system. Kelly was acquired from Pittsburgh in exchange for minor league UTIL Corey Wimberly who was acquired from Colorado in February 2009 for Matt Murton. Murton was acquired from the Cubs in the Rich Harden trade. It's chaos. Rich Harden is well, Rich Harden and Murton just set the record for most hits in a season in Japan, so let's just look at the other players involved in the more recent trades.
Moscoso's big league performance in '10 wasn't anything to write home about. He pitched in 1 game, two thirds of an inning, giving up 2 runs for a 27.00 ERA. Even in the minors he posted a 7-7 record and a 5.18 ERA in 22 starts and a relief appearance at Triple-A Oklahoma City. But, it's not too hard to see what Beane sees in him. Moscoso posted a good 7.8 K/9 in the minors in '10 along with a 3.6 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9, and a terrible 10.4 H/9. For his minor league career, Moscoso has an 8.7 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9, and an 8.5 H/9. He just had an off-year. Even if you want to argue that he was overwhelmed by Triple-A, he did post a 2.31 ERA there in 11 starts and a relief apperance in '09. Also, in 10 big league relief appearances in '09, he posted a 3.18 ERA. Beane seemingly thinks that Moscoso will be at least a somewhat effective big league reliever for the A's in '11.
But, why then would Beane acquire him in exchange for Kelly, a minor league reliever? Kelly isn't great, but he did post a 4.20 ERA in '10. He gave up 9 home runs for a 1.1 HR/9 ratio, but he posted a 9.0 K/9 and a 1.7 BB/9 for an outstanding 5.36 strikeout to walk ratio. Oh yeah, one problem: Kelly repeated Low-A in '10 and turned 23 in October. Either Beane is an idiot for trading a player with potential because of his high strikeout and low walk rates, or he's a genius for getting a big league reliever for a pitcher who posted an ERA over 4.00 an Low-A.
Wimberly, who Beane gave up to get Kelly, seems to have more value than either Moscoso or Kelly. He turned 27 in October, but last year at Triple-A Sacramento he hit .284 with 14 doubles, 3 homers, 57 RBI, 7 triples, 97 runs, 56 stolen bases, and a .373 OBP. He even played a decent centerfield and posted fielding percentages at LF, SS, and 2B that a team could live with (while being a complete disaster at third base). Sounds like Jerry Hairston Jr. with speed to me. How could Beane possibly trade him for a relliever who posted a 4.20 ERA at Low-A, especially one that he used to trade for another player? It's not like speedy utility players grow on trees!
I am so confused. The A's, like all teams, do have some utility players (such as Adam Rosales), but why give him away for nothing? If Kelly wasn't nothing, why did he trade him for Moscoso? Conspiracy theory is that this was essentially a three team trade where the Rangers wanted Kelly, the A's wanted Moscoso, and the Pirates wanted Wimberly. But, why then would there be over 2 weeks between the Pirates-A's trade and the A's-Rangers trade? My guess would be that Beane was trying to get more for Kelly, which delayed the trade for a while. A typical two weeks in the life of Billy Beane.
Moscoso's big league performance in '10 wasn't anything to write home about. He pitched in 1 game, two thirds of an inning, giving up 2 runs for a 27.00 ERA. Even in the minors he posted a 7-7 record and a 5.18 ERA in 22 starts and a relief appearance at Triple-A Oklahoma City. But, it's not too hard to see what Beane sees in him. Moscoso posted a good 7.8 K/9 in the minors in '10 along with a 3.6 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9, and a terrible 10.4 H/9. For his minor league career, Moscoso has an 8.7 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9, and an 8.5 H/9. He just had an off-year. Even if you want to argue that he was overwhelmed by Triple-A, he did post a 2.31 ERA there in 11 starts and a relief apperance in '09. Also, in 10 big league relief appearances in '09, he posted a 3.18 ERA. Beane seemingly thinks that Moscoso will be at least a somewhat effective big league reliever for the A's in '11.
But, why then would Beane acquire him in exchange for Kelly, a minor league reliever? Kelly isn't great, but he did post a 4.20 ERA in '10. He gave up 9 home runs for a 1.1 HR/9 ratio, but he posted a 9.0 K/9 and a 1.7 BB/9 for an outstanding 5.36 strikeout to walk ratio. Oh yeah, one problem: Kelly repeated Low-A in '10 and turned 23 in October. Either Beane is an idiot for trading a player with potential because of his high strikeout and low walk rates, or he's a genius for getting a big league reliever for a pitcher who posted an ERA over 4.00 an Low-A.
Wimberly, who Beane gave up to get Kelly, seems to have more value than either Moscoso or Kelly. He turned 27 in October, but last year at Triple-A Sacramento he hit .284 with 14 doubles, 3 homers, 57 RBI, 7 triples, 97 runs, 56 stolen bases, and a .373 OBP. He even played a decent centerfield and posted fielding percentages at LF, SS, and 2B that a team could live with (while being a complete disaster at third base). Sounds like Jerry Hairston Jr. with speed to me. How could Beane possibly trade him for a relliever who posted a 4.20 ERA at Low-A, especially one that he used to trade for another player? It's not like speedy utility players grow on trees!
I am so confused. The A's, like all teams, do have some utility players (such as Adam Rosales), but why give him away for nothing? If Kelly wasn't nothing, why did he trade him for Moscoso? Conspiracy theory is that this was essentially a three team trade where the Rangers wanted Kelly, the A's wanted Moscoso, and the Pirates wanted Wimberly. But, why then would there be over 2 weeks between the Pirates-A's trade and the A's-Rangers trade? My guess would be that Beane was trying to get more for Kelly, which delayed the trade for a while. A typical two weeks in the life of Billy Beane.
Thursday, January 6, 2011
Will Jeremy Bonderman make an impact for any MLB team in 2011?
09:25 PM ET 01.06 |
Former Tigers right-hander Jeremy Bonderman is on the scrap heap of free agent starters right now after a 5.53 ERA in '10 and a 5.19 ERA the last four seasons. Is he even worth a look for the Yankees or any other team?
I'll just say it straight out: if Jeremy Bonderman signs a major league contract worth any amount of money with any MLB team (including the Yankees) I will rip that team. Here's why.
You have to notice that 5.19 ERA figure above. Bonderman hasn't had one bad season, he's had four. To compound the problem, he hasn't been healthy, missing time with injuries each of the last four season since tying for the AL lead with 34 starts in 2006. 2006 was Bonderman's one good year, as he went 14-8 with a 4.08 ERA and 202 K's in 34 starts in 214 innings. Bonderman had an outstanding 8.5 K/9 that year, but he has a career 7.1 K/9 and just one other year over 8.0. It's not like Bonderman might have great upside in '11 if healthy. Bonderman's downfall is interestingly hits allowed. He has allowed 3.1 walks per 9 innings, a decent ratio, and 1.1 homers per 9 innings, which is acceptable (but then again, he pitched his home games at Comerica Park), but he has allowed 9.5 hits per 9 innings in his career, very suprising for a strikeout pitcher. Even in his good (not superb) 2006 season, he allowed exactly a hit per inning (9.0 H/9). His only season in which he had under a hit per inning (8.2 H/9) was 2004, when he posted a 4.89 ERA. Was was interesting about that year is that in 7 starts he had an 11.92 ERA and he had a 2.97 ERA in his another 22 starts. He gave up 7 runs three times, 6 runs three times, and 5 runs once. That season shows Bonderman's problem throughout his career: he's a decent pitcher, but sometimes he just implodes. he has allowed 5 runs or more in a game at least 6 times every season of his career besides '08 and '09 when he appeared in a combined 20 games (12 starts). Roy Halladay has given up 5 or more runs in a start 6 or more times in a season just 1 time in the last 6 seasons. Felix Hernandez has just 1 such season on his entire career resume (2006).
Here's the bottom line with Bonderman: he's an inconsistent pitcher with little upside. If you're lucky, he'll give you a 4.00 ERA. He's a former 19 game loser and a 2-time 14 game winner, which says it all. He's been all the way down, but never really been an ace-type pitcher. Will somone offer him a minor league deal? Of course. Just don't expect too much.
Former Tigers right-hander Jeremy Bonderman is on the scrap heap of free agent starters right now after a 5.53 ERA in '10 and a 5.19 ERA the last four seasons. Is he even worth a look for the Yankees or any other team?
I'll just say it straight out: if Jeremy Bonderman signs a major league contract worth any amount of money with any MLB team (including the Yankees) I will rip that team. Here's why.
You have to notice that 5.19 ERA figure above. Bonderman hasn't had one bad season, he's had four. To compound the problem, he hasn't been healthy, missing time with injuries each of the last four season since tying for the AL lead with 34 starts in 2006. 2006 was Bonderman's one good year, as he went 14-8 with a 4.08 ERA and 202 K's in 34 starts in 214 innings. Bonderman had an outstanding 8.5 K/9 that year, but he has a career 7.1 K/9 and just one other year over 8.0. It's not like Bonderman might have great upside in '11 if healthy. Bonderman's downfall is interestingly hits allowed. He has allowed 3.1 walks per 9 innings, a decent ratio, and 1.1 homers per 9 innings, which is acceptable (but then again, he pitched his home games at Comerica Park), but he has allowed 9.5 hits per 9 innings in his career, very suprising for a strikeout pitcher. Even in his good (not superb) 2006 season, he allowed exactly a hit per inning (9.0 H/9). His only season in which he had under a hit per inning (8.2 H/9) was 2004, when he posted a 4.89 ERA. Was was interesting about that year is that in 7 starts he had an 11.92 ERA and he had a 2.97 ERA in his another 22 starts. He gave up 7 runs three times, 6 runs three times, and 5 runs once. That season shows Bonderman's problem throughout his career: he's a decent pitcher, but sometimes he just implodes. he has allowed 5 runs or more in a game at least 6 times every season of his career besides '08 and '09 when he appeared in a combined 20 games (12 starts). Roy Halladay has given up 5 or more runs in a start 6 or more times in a season just 1 time in the last 6 seasons. Felix Hernandez has just 1 such season on his entire career resume (2006).
Here's the bottom line with Bonderman: he's an inconsistent pitcher with little upside. If you're lucky, he'll give you a 4.00 ERA. He's a former 19 game loser and a 2-time 14 game winner, which says it all. He's been all the way down, but never really been an ace-type pitcher. Will somone offer him a minor league deal? Of course. Just don't expect too much.
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