What's going on with 2009 NL ROY Chris Coghlan?

I just did a post on whether Marlins prospect Mike Stanton is ready for the majors, so it got me thinking about the Marlins outfield. Then I saw the stats on the Marlins left fielder, 2009 NL Rookie of the Year Chris Coghlan. He is really doing bad. What's going on?

Marlins LF Chris Coghlan was called to the majors on May 8th, 2009, going 2 for 4. But, after starting off with a bang, Coghlan really slowed down. He was hitting just .143 on May 23rd, and just .212 on May 31th. But then he hit .294 in June to improve his BA to .262. But then he hit .231 in July which sent his BA down to .252. The Marlins were waiting to see which Coghlan they would see- the May and July version who struggled, or the June version who did fine. Coghlan showed that he really would excel, as he hit .385 in August and .390 in September/October. He finished batting .321 with 31 doubles, 6 triples, 9 homers, 47 RBI, 8 SB, 84 runs, and a .390 OBP in 128 games. He did have some struggles defensively in left field, as he posted just .977 Fld% (league average: .982). Still, he was good enough to win the NL Rookie of the Year award over J.A. Happ, Tommy Hanson, and others. The Marlins had big expectations for him entering this year.

Right now in 2010, Coghlan is hitting just .237 with 6 doubles, 3 homers, 15 RBI, 6 stolen bases, and a .284 OBP in 49 games. His power numbers and stolen bases are on pace to be better than '09, but the .237 BA and .284 OBP are very low. Last year at this time, Coghlan was hitting just .213, but with a much better .356 OBP. Also, since Coghlan debuted on May 8th, his 49th game with July 1st. He was hitting .262 after 49 games with a .360 OBP. Coghlan has struggled before, but not like this. Let's look into the stats to find out what's going on.

Let's start with some very clear differences between Coghlan '09 season and his '10 season. In '09, he got very lucky- he hit .365 on balls in play, but in '10 his BA on balls in play is .294, a big difference. In '09, Coghlan, who bats lefty, hit .323 against righties and .316 against lefties. It didn't make that much of a difference whether he was facing a righty or a lefty- in both cases he did well. But in '10, Coghlan has hit just .250 against righties and .204 against lefties. He's bad overall so far in '10, but now also lefties neutralize him. That obviously is a big problem.

Now, let's look at Coghlan's clutch stats. In '09, Coghlan hit .352 with runners in scoring position. But in those situations in '10, Coghlan has hit just .174. In '09, Coghlan hit .342 with runners on base, compared to .250 so far in '10. Also, Coghlan hit .308 with 2 outs and runners and scoring position in '09, but he has hit just .176 in those situations in '10.

In 2009, there were 427 times where Coghlan hit a ball in play excluding sac bunts and sac flies (it could have been a foul ball caught by fielders). About 48.2% of those hits were grounders, about 27% of them were fly balls, about 23.4% were line drives, and 1.4% of his hits were bunts. So far in '10, Coghlan has hit 145 balls in play besides sac flies and sac bunts. About 59.3% of those hits have been grounders, 20% of those hits have been fly balls, about 19.3% have been line drives, and about 1.4% have been bunts. So, he's hitting grounders at a way higher rate in '10, and that has caused him to hit fewer fly balls and fewer line drives.

So, to sum up this post, the reason Coghlan is doing much worse in '10 than '09 is that unlike '09, lefties are neutralizing him, he is hitting much worse in the clutch, and he is hitting ground balls at a much higher rate. He'll just have to work with his hitting coach to fix those problems.

Here's the link to the Mike Stanton post: http://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/659425-is-marlins-prospect-mike-stanton-ready-for-the-majors.