Why Promoting Cobb, and keeping Davis in the pen, makes sense for Rays

While Jeff Niemann’s numbers thus far this season (2-3, 3.38 ERA) might not look gaudy, they do not bare out the success he’s had, particularly in his most recent start in New York, where he went 7 solid innings giving up just 1 ER to a powerful Yankee lineup, but was on the hook for a loss until the Rays 9th inning rally en route to a 4-1 win got Niemann a no decision. His BAA and K to BB ratio were more solid, if not excellent (.221, 30 Strikeouts, 12 Walks) and in particular, his BAA to RHB was a gaudy .132. Nonetheless, while Niemann’s early season successes shouldn’t come as a shock, nor should his latest injury, albeit fluky and unrelated to past injuries, Jeff is the only Rays starter that consistently has been unable to remain healthy throughout an entire season. So why Alex Cobb? Why not just promote Wade Davis back to what he admittedly coveted in the spring and always has, a role in the starting rotation? There are several reasons. For one, Davis, despite being less than thrilled about not getting a starting job to begin with, has adapted to his role quite well, and the numbers bear that out. Wade not only possesses a 2.04 ERA, but he’s been asked to take over in several high leverage situations (most notably, inheriting two runners on with nobody out in Texas, striking out the always dangerous Mike Napoli, and being victimized by a Longoria error). Davis proceeded to hustle and cover home off of a wild pitch to erase Nelson Cruz and never backed down against the tough Elvis Andrus, finally retiring him on a fly ball to center after an 11 pitch at bat. To expect Alex Cobb to be able to perform that well under such circumstances (and that is just one example in which Davis has done such this season) would be asking a lot out of anyone, let alone the far less experienced Cobb. Although Alex has, by the numbers, not faired all that well in Durham (1-4 with a 4.14 ERA in 8 starts) the numbers are somewhat skewed by two bad outings, in which he gave up 6 and 7 ER, and went just 1.2 and 4 innings, respectively. Otherwise, Cobb has given up no more than 2 ER in his other 6 starts, and gone no less than 5 IP in any of them. His K to BB ratio is a strong 44-18. When you couple what he has done in Durham, coming off of his strong stint in the majors pre-injury (3-2 with a 3.42 ERA in 9 starts, including his initial poor outing in which the Rays determined he was tipping pitches), accentuated by the fact that he gave up no more than 3 ER in all but one of his ensuing starts after being re-called back from AAA to tweak his initial issues, and Cobb is undoubtedly deserving of his second opportunity to pitch at the Major League Level. While it is unfortunate that it will come due to Niemann’s injury it’s worth nothing that Cobb likely would have been called up at some point this season anyhow, but likely thrust into a relief role in which he is unaccustomed to, or just for an occasional spot start. Ergo, Niemann’s injury further illustrates the luxury the Rays have with a surplus of quality starting pitchers and why, perhaps, they have been leery about trading any arms away. Maybe in the future, after getting another extended look at Alex Cobb on the big league level, and more of Wade Davis in his unnatural, but successful stint as a reliever, they’ll maximize on their biggest asset to acquire another bat. Until then, the Rays are in good hands, and arms, with Cobb, Davis, and the rest of their starters.