Does everyone remember when Randy Johnson was traded to the Yankees? It was a critical time period for them, right after the sheer disappointment and failure of the 2004 postseason. So what did they do? They traded for Johnson. Who did they trade? Javier Vazquez, Dioner Navarro, and Brad Halsey. We all know why they traded Vazquez... does game 7 ring a bell? Navarro was a catching prospect who had already made a cameo in the majors at that time, but he hit just .263 in the minors in '04, and the Yankees already had Posada. Halsey, the one you probably haven't heard of, was a lefty starter coming off an outstanding season at Triple-A in which he went 11-4 with 2.62 ERA in 23 starts, 1 relief appearance, and 144 IP. He struck out just 108 (6.8 per 9), but walked just 37 (2.3 per 9). He also made 8 appearances in the majors, including 7 starts, but he posted a 6.47 ERA (3 good starts, 4 bad starts). The trade to get Johnson was certainly a reasonable one for the Yanks. Although he was already 41 years old, he was also coming off a great year himself, having gone 16-14 with a 2.60 ERA and 290 K's in 35 starts and 245.1 IP for a terrible D-backs team.
As you probably remember, Johnson's tenure in the Bronx had mix reviews. In '05, he had a good season anchoring the Yankee staff, but not a great season, going 17-8 with a 3.79 ERA and 'just' 211 K's in 34 starts and 225.2 IP. No only Yankee starter that threw 200 innings, won 15 games, and or 150 batters. He was the one stabilizing force in a season riddled by injuries to starting pitchers (this was the Aaron Small/Shawn Chacon year). In 2005 though, Johnson was not anywhere near as effective. He won 17 games again, going 17-11, but with a 5.00 ERA and just 172 K's in 33 starts and 205 IP. After the year, the Yankees traded Johnson back to Arizona in exchange for Luis Vizcaino, Ross Ohlendorf, Steven Jackson, and Alberto Gonzalez. Vizcaino had a nice year as a reliever in '05, posting a 4.30 ERA, but in 77 appearances. He left as a free agent following the year. (He recently re-signed with the Yankees.) Ohlendorf pitched very badly for the Yankees for parts of two seasons for the Yanks (6.02 ERA), but has been a good pitcher since being traded to Pittsburgh, posting a 12-24 record despite a 4.15 ERA. Jackson never pitched for the Yankees, but has posted a 4.31 ERA for the Pirates as a reliever. The Yankees traded Gonzalez to Washington after he hit just .152 for them. None of the acquired players made a difference for the Yankees long-term.
Johnson posted a 3.89 ERA for Arizona from '07 to '08. After getting his 300th win while playing for the Giants in 2010, he retired. He will certainly be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. That being said, his 2-year tenure with the Yankees showed that he was really taking advantage of pitching in the NL West. His ERA was much better in the NL (2.92) than in the NL (3.60) for his career. But, he was still a good enough pitcher to survive even in the tough AL East and win 34 games in two seasons.
Randy Johnson's two year tenure in the Bronx was not successful, but had the Yankees not acquired him, they would not have made the playoffs in '05. Even though he struggled in the AL East, he still found ways to win ballgames and help the team win. He should be credited for lasting his age 41 and age 42 seasons in the AL East, rather than have his 4.37 ERA during that time period held against him. Even in the twilight of his career, he was still able to get the job done with all the pressure in the world on him under the bright lights of New York.
Wednesday, December 22, 2010
Comparing the 1996 and 2009 Yankee championship teams
When I first thought of the idea for this post, I thought that the 2009 Yankees would be so different be so different from the 1996 Yankees. Really, when you look at the big picture, that's not the case. Let's compare them position by position to illustrate that point.
C: Joe Girardi vs. Jorge Posada
Before you say anything, let's compare the salaries: 2.325 million dollars vs. 13.1 million dollars. Sure, Girardi was signed as a free agent, but to be a role player. Also, the players themselves couldn't be more different. Girardi hit .294 with 22 doubles, 2 homers, 45 RBI, 13 SB, and a .346 OBP in 124 games. He also played well defensively, posting a .996 Fld% at catcher, and a 25% CS%. Posada in contrast, hit .285 with 25 doubles, 22 homers, 81 RBI, 1 SB (had to point that out), and a .363 OBP in 111 games. He posted just a .990 Fld%, although he did post a 28% CS%. Girardi was a scrappy player who got on base and played well defensively. Posada was a power hitter who had trouble just stopping errant pitches (Girardi had 10 passed balls compared to Posada's 31). Going by WAR, Posada had a much better season. But, was he worth almost 11 million dollars more? Either way, both players played important roles for their teams.
1B: Tino Martinez vs. Mark Teixeira
Let's look at the salaries again. 2.3 million dollars for Tino compared to 20.625 million dollars for Teix. Tino and Teix was much more similar than you would think based on their salaries. Tino hit .292 with 28 doubles, 25 homers, 117 RBI, 82 runs, and a .364 OBP in 155 games. Teix hit that same .292 with 43 doubles, 39 homers, 122 RBI, 103 runs, and a .383 OBP in 156 games. Tino posted a .996 Fld% at 1B compared to Teixeira's .997. First base might be the one position where both teams were very similar. Teixeira was a better player, but not by that much. Obviously, Teix isn't worth over 18 million dollars more than Tino. Both teams filled a very similar role for their respective teams- a power-hitting first baseman in the middle of the lineup who also plays well defensively.
2B: Mariano Duncan vs. Robinson Cano
The salary gap here isn't that far: 845,000 dollars for Duncan compared to 6 million dollars for Cano. They certainly had very different seasons. Duncan hit .340 with 34 doubles, 8 homers, 56 RBI, and just a .352 OBP (9 walks all year) in 109 games.Cano hit .320 with 48 doubles, 25 homers, 85 RBI, 103 runs, and a .352 OBP (30 walks) in 161 games. Defensively, Cano was far superior, posting a .984 Fld% at Duncan's .973. Duncan was an incredible hitter for average that had few other skills, while Cano was an amazing hitter who hit for average and power in addition to being a Gold Glover defensively. Cano was significantly better, but Duncan filled a nice niche for the 1996 team.
3B: Wade Boggs vs. Alex Rodriguez
2.05 million dollars versus 33 million. Oh my gosh. Boggs and A-rod are as different as night and day. Boggs hit .311 with 29 doubles, 2 homers, 41 RBI, 80 runs, 1 SB, and a .389 OBP in 132 games. A-rod hit .286 with 17 doubles, 30 homers, 100 RBI, 78 runs, 14 SB, and a .402 OBP in 124 games. Boggs posted a .974 Fld% at third base compared to .967 by A-rod. Boggs is a Hall of Famer because he was an amazing pure hitter. A-rod was once a good pure hitter (215 hits in 1996 and 213 in 1998), but is now known strictly as a power hitter. Boggs was a very good role player at that point in his career, while A-rod was still a superstar when he came back from injury. They contributed very different aspects to their teams; Boggs was a top-of-the-lineup kind of player who was a table-setter for the big hitters. A-rod, obviously, is a big hitter.
SS: Derek Jeter vs. Derek Jeter
The salary comparison isn't fair- Jeter was a rookie in '96 so of course he didn't a lot of money! He made just 160 thousand dollars compared to 21.6 million in 2009. Let's compare Jeter's seasons. He certainly had two Jeterian seasons. He hit .314 with 25 doubles, 10 homers, 78 RBI, 104 runs, 183 hits, 14 SB, and a .370 OBP in 157 games on his way to the AL Rookie of the Year. Like most rookie shortstops, he did struggle defensively, posting a .969 Fld% (although his range was must better than it is now). In '09, he also had a great season, hitting .334 with 27 doubles, 18 homers, 66 RBI, 107 runs, 212 hits, 30 SB, and a .406 OBP in 153 games. He posted a .986 Fld%. Jeter was a great player both back then and in '09 (maybe not really anymore).
LF: Gerald Williams/Tim Raines vs. Johnny Damon
Looking at the salaries, Damon easily made more than Williams and Raines combined. Raines made 2.1 million dollars and Williams made '200 thousand while Damon made 13 million. Williams had a below-average season, hitting .270 with 15 doubles, 5 homers, 37 RBI, 7 SB, and just a .319 OBP while posting just a .978 Fld% in LF, which was just slightly below league average, but you would expect more from a player who played most of his career in centerfield. To make things worse, he only had 1 assist. He was traded to the Brewers in August (through waivers). Raines meanwhile, was sidelined most of the year by a hamstring tear, but came back after Williams was traded. He did well, hitting .284 with 10 doubles, 9 homers, 33 RBI, 45 runs, and a .383 OBP in 59 games. He also posted an above average .988 Fld% in LF, with 3 assists. In 2009, Damon had a great season offensively, hitting .282 with 36 doubles, 24 homers, 82 RBI, 107 runs, 12 SB, and a .365 OBP in 143 games. But, he posted an astronomically below average .978 Fld% in LF (league average was .987). This guy was playing centerfield the year before! Anyway, Damon was certainly better than Gim Waines (Williams + Raines). But again, was he worth 10 million dollars more?
CF: Bernie Williams vs. Melky Cabrera
In terms of salaries, Bernie made 3 million dollars to Melky's 1.4 million. Bernie was certainly double as good as Melky. He hit .305 with 26 doubles, 29 homers, 102 RBI, 108 runs, 17 SB, and a .391 OBP in 143 games. He did post just a .986 Fld% in centerfield, which was below average, but he had 10 outfield assists, third in the league. He had an outstanding season. Not that Melky was bad at all. He hit .274 with 28 doubles, 13 homers, 68 RBI, 10 SB, and a .336 OBP in 154 games. He posted an above-average .990 Fld% in the outfield, including a perfect 1.000 Fld% in CF, but he posted just 3 assists. In a battle of arbitration-eligible players (Bernie won in a hearing), Bernie was certainly a far superior player, although Melky filled an important role for the 2009 Yankees.
RF: Paul O'Neill vs. Nick Swisher
O'Neill and Swisher happened to make nearly the same amount of money, with O'Neill earning 5.3 million dollars and Swish earning 5.4. Both players had good seasons. O'Neill hit .302 with 35 doubles, 19 homers, 91 RBI, 89 runs, and a .411 OBP in 150 games. Swish hit .249 with 35 doubles, 29 homers, 82 RBI, 84 runs, and a .371 OBP in 150 games. O'Neill was superb defensively, posting a perfect 1.000 Fld% at RF with 7 assists, while Swish was still OK at .983 with 7 assists as well. They gave similar contributions to their teams (O'Neill was better), so they certainly deserved similar salaries.
DH: Ruben Sierra/Darryl Strawberry/Cecil Fielder vs. Hideki Matsui
The three headed monster at DH made a total of 6.5 million dollars, while Matsui made double that, 13 million dollars. Ruben Sierra was the DH for the '96 Yankees until July. But, he performed so poorly (.258 BA, .327 OBP, 11 homers in 96 games), that the Yankees traded him for Cecil Fielder at the deadline, and acquired Darryl Strawbery. (Fielder was actually in the middle of his last monster season, as he would go on to hit 39 homers and drive in 119 runs.) Decil Fieldberry hit 24 homers in a combined 116 games, hitting .261. (Darryl played a bit in the outfield and Fielder played some first base). All 3 players combined hit .260 with 35 homers and 125 RBI in 212 games. Matsui himself hit .274 with 28 homers and 90 RBI in 142 games. Advantage 2009. Might as well pay double for some stability rather than RubenDecil Sierra-Fieldberry. (Thank you BenJarvus Green-Ellis.)
Rotation:
The 1996 Yankees had a rotation of Andy Pettitte (21-8, 3.87 ERA), Kenny Rodgers (12-8, 4.68), Dwight Gooden (11-7, 5.01), Jimmy Key (12-11, 4.68), David Cone, who missed much of the year with an aneurysm (7-2, 2.88), and Ramiro Mendoza, who replaced him (4-5, 6.79). They earned a total of 11.467 million dollars. The 2009 Yankee rotation consisted of CC Sabathia (19-8, 3.37), AJ Burnett (13-9, 4.04), Andy Pettitte (14-8, 4.16), Joba Chamberlain (9-6, 4.75), and Chien-Ming Wang/Sergio Mitre/Chad Gaudin (combined 6-9, 6.63, although Gaudin went 2-0, 3.43). They made 42 million, 718 thousand, 289 dollars. That's almost 4 times as much as '96. But their ERA was better, 4.40 compared to 4.56, but not THAT much better!
Closer: John Wetteland vs. Mariano Rivera
There's no comparison. Rivera earned so much more (15 million dollars to 4 million), but he pitched much better. He posted a 1.76 ERA and 44 saves compared to Wetteland's still great 2.83 ERA and 43 saves. Rivera isn't 11 million dollars better, but he certainly was (and is at least arguably) the best closer in baseball.
I couldn't compare everybody, but these are the cores of those teams. Salaries are certainly different now from then, so the salary comparison is not really fair. Still, the 2009 Yankees had five times the payroll of '96. But, they were both built off of free agents with some amount homegrown talent mixed in. That's the Yankee formula now, and it won't change anytime soon. The Yankees, even with their great talent in the minors right now, do not have a homegrown dynasty coming. No matter how great the prospects are, only the very best will make it, and the rest of the roster will be made up of players, superstars, and some role players, acquired via free agency and trades. Many of the second-best prospects might have great careers with other teams, but it just won't work out for them with the Yankees. Even after A-rod's, Teixeira's, and CC's contracts expire, we all know there will be new big contracts handed out. If they do their moves right, we'll see another dynasty coming soon.
C: Joe Girardi vs. Jorge Posada
Before you say anything, let's compare the salaries: 2.325 million dollars vs. 13.1 million dollars. Sure, Girardi was signed as a free agent, but to be a role player. Also, the players themselves couldn't be more different. Girardi hit .294 with 22 doubles, 2 homers, 45 RBI, 13 SB, and a .346 OBP in 124 games. He also played well defensively, posting a .996 Fld% at catcher, and a 25% CS%. Posada in contrast, hit .285 with 25 doubles, 22 homers, 81 RBI, 1 SB (had to point that out), and a .363 OBP in 111 games. He posted just a .990 Fld%, although he did post a 28% CS%. Girardi was a scrappy player who got on base and played well defensively. Posada was a power hitter who had trouble just stopping errant pitches (Girardi had 10 passed balls compared to Posada's 31). Going by WAR, Posada had a much better season. But, was he worth almost 11 million dollars more? Either way, both players played important roles for their teams.
1B: Tino Martinez vs. Mark Teixeira
Let's look at the salaries again. 2.3 million dollars for Tino compared to 20.625 million dollars for Teix. Tino and Teix was much more similar than you would think based on their salaries. Tino hit .292 with 28 doubles, 25 homers, 117 RBI, 82 runs, and a .364 OBP in 155 games. Teix hit that same .292 with 43 doubles, 39 homers, 122 RBI, 103 runs, and a .383 OBP in 156 games. Tino posted a .996 Fld% at 1B compared to Teixeira's .997. First base might be the one position where both teams were very similar. Teixeira was a better player, but not by that much. Obviously, Teix isn't worth over 18 million dollars more than Tino. Both teams filled a very similar role for their respective teams- a power-hitting first baseman in the middle of the lineup who also plays well defensively.
2B: Mariano Duncan vs. Robinson Cano
The salary gap here isn't that far: 845,000 dollars for Duncan compared to 6 million dollars for Cano. They certainly had very different seasons. Duncan hit .340 with 34 doubles, 8 homers, 56 RBI, and just a .352 OBP (9 walks all year) in 109 games.Cano hit .320 with 48 doubles, 25 homers, 85 RBI, 103 runs, and a .352 OBP (30 walks) in 161 games. Defensively, Cano was far superior, posting a .984 Fld% at Duncan's .973. Duncan was an incredible hitter for average that had few other skills, while Cano was an amazing hitter who hit for average and power in addition to being a Gold Glover defensively. Cano was significantly better, but Duncan filled a nice niche for the 1996 team.
3B: Wade Boggs vs. Alex Rodriguez
2.05 million dollars versus 33 million. Oh my gosh. Boggs and A-rod are as different as night and day. Boggs hit .311 with 29 doubles, 2 homers, 41 RBI, 80 runs, 1 SB, and a .389 OBP in 132 games. A-rod hit .286 with 17 doubles, 30 homers, 100 RBI, 78 runs, 14 SB, and a .402 OBP in 124 games. Boggs posted a .974 Fld% at third base compared to .967 by A-rod. Boggs is a Hall of Famer because he was an amazing pure hitter. A-rod was once a good pure hitter (215 hits in 1996 and 213 in 1998), but is now known strictly as a power hitter. Boggs was a very good role player at that point in his career, while A-rod was still a superstar when he came back from injury. They contributed very different aspects to their teams; Boggs was a top-of-the-lineup kind of player who was a table-setter for the big hitters. A-rod, obviously, is a big hitter.
SS: Derek Jeter vs. Derek Jeter
The salary comparison isn't fair- Jeter was a rookie in '96 so of course he didn't a lot of money! He made just 160 thousand dollars compared to 21.6 million in 2009. Let's compare Jeter's seasons. He certainly had two Jeterian seasons. He hit .314 with 25 doubles, 10 homers, 78 RBI, 104 runs, 183 hits, 14 SB, and a .370 OBP in 157 games on his way to the AL Rookie of the Year. Like most rookie shortstops, he did struggle defensively, posting a .969 Fld% (although his range was must better than it is now). In '09, he also had a great season, hitting .334 with 27 doubles, 18 homers, 66 RBI, 107 runs, 212 hits, 30 SB, and a .406 OBP in 153 games. He posted a .986 Fld%. Jeter was a great player both back then and in '09 (maybe not really anymore).
LF: Gerald Williams/Tim Raines vs. Johnny Damon
Looking at the salaries, Damon easily made more than Williams and Raines combined. Raines made 2.1 million dollars and Williams made '200 thousand while Damon made 13 million. Williams had a below-average season, hitting .270 with 15 doubles, 5 homers, 37 RBI, 7 SB, and just a .319 OBP while posting just a .978 Fld% in LF, which was just slightly below league average, but you would expect more from a player who played most of his career in centerfield. To make things worse, he only had 1 assist. He was traded to the Brewers in August (through waivers). Raines meanwhile, was sidelined most of the year by a hamstring tear, but came back after Williams was traded. He did well, hitting .284 with 10 doubles, 9 homers, 33 RBI, 45 runs, and a .383 OBP in 59 games. He also posted an above average .988 Fld% in LF, with 3 assists. In 2009, Damon had a great season offensively, hitting .282 with 36 doubles, 24 homers, 82 RBI, 107 runs, 12 SB, and a .365 OBP in 143 games. But, he posted an astronomically below average .978 Fld% in LF (league average was .987). This guy was playing centerfield the year before! Anyway, Damon was certainly better than Gim Waines (Williams + Raines). But again, was he worth 10 million dollars more?
CF: Bernie Williams vs. Melky Cabrera
In terms of salaries, Bernie made 3 million dollars to Melky's 1.4 million. Bernie was certainly double as good as Melky. He hit .305 with 26 doubles, 29 homers, 102 RBI, 108 runs, 17 SB, and a .391 OBP in 143 games. He did post just a .986 Fld% in centerfield, which was below average, but he had 10 outfield assists, third in the league. He had an outstanding season. Not that Melky was bad at all. He hit .274 with 28 doubles, 13 homers, 68 RBI, 10 SB, and a .336 OBP in 154 games. He posted an above-average .990 Fld% in the outfield, including a perfect 1.000 Fld% in CF, but he posted just 3 assists. In a battle of arbitration-eligible players (Bernie won in a hearing), Bernie was certainly a far superior player, although Melky filled an important role for the 2009 Yankees.
RF: Paul O'Neill vs. Nick Swisher
O'Neill and Swisher happened to make nearly the same amount of money, with O'Neill earning 5.3 million dollars and Swish earning 5.4. Both players had good seasons. O'Neill hit .302 with 35 doubles, 19 homers, 91 RBI, 89 runs, and a .411 OBP in 150 games. Swish hit .249 with 35 doubles, 29 homers, 82 RBI, 84 runs, and a .371 OBP in 150 games. O'Neill was superb defensively, posting a perfect 1.000 Fld% at RF with 7 assists, while Swish was still OK at .983 with 7 assists as well. They gave similar contributions to their teams (O'Neill was better), so they certainly deserved similar salaries.
DH: Ruben Sierra/Darryl Strawberry/Cecil Fielder vs. Hideki Matsui
The three headed monster at DH made a total of 6.5 million dollars, while Matsui made double that, 13 million dollars. Ruben Sierra was the DH for the '96 Yankees until July. But, he performed so poorly (.258 BA, .327 OBP, 11 homers in 96 games), that the Yankees traded him for Cecil Fielder at the deadline, and acquired Darryl Strawbery. (Fielder was actually in the middle of his last monster season, as he would go on to hit 39 homers and drive in 119 runs.) Decil Fieldberry hit 24 homers in a combined 116 games, hitting .261. (Darryl played a bit in the outfield and Fielder played some first base). All 3 players combined hit .260 with 35 homers and 125 RBI in 212 games. Matsui himself hit .274 with 28 homers and 90 RBI in 142 games. Advantage 2009. Might as well pay double for some stability rather than RubenDecil Sierra-Fieldberry. (Thank you BenJarvus Green-Ellis.)
Rotation:
The 1996 Yankees had a rotation of Andy Pettitte (21-8, 3.87 ERA), Kenny Rodgers (12-8, 4.68), Dwight Gooden (11-7, 5.01), Jimmy Key (12-11, 4.68), David Cone, who missed much of the year with an aneurysm (7-2, 2.88), and Ramiro Mendoza, who replaced him (4-5, 6.79). They earned a total of 11.467 million dollars. The 2009 Yankee rotation consisted of CC Sabathia (19-8, 3.37), AJ Burnett (13-9, 4.04), Andy Pettitte (14-8, 4.16), Joba Chamberlain (9-6, 4.75), and Chien-Ming Wang/Sergio Mitre/Chad Gaudin (combined 6-9, 6.63, although Gaudin went 2-0, 3.43). They made 42 million, 718 thousand, 289 dollars. That's almost 4 times as much as '96. But their ERA was better, 4.40 compared to 4.56, but not THAT much better!
Closer: John Wetteland vs. Mariano Rivera
There's no comparison. Rivera earned so much more (15 million dollars to 4 million), but he pitched much better. He posted a 1.76 ERA and 44 saves compared to Wetteland's still great 2.83 ERA and 43 saves. Rivera isn't 11 million dollars better, but he certainly was (and is at least arguably) the best closer in baseball.
I couldn't compare everybody, but these are the cores of those teams. Salaries are certainly different now from then, so the salary comparison is not really fair. Still, the 2009 Yankees had five times the payroll of '96. But, they were both built off of free agents with some amount homegrown talent mixed in. That's the Yankee formula now, and it won't change anytime soon. The Yankees, even with their great talent in the minors right now, do not have a homegrown dynasty coming. No matter how great the prospects are, only the very best will make it, and the rest of the roster will be made up of players, superstars, and some role players, acquired via free agency and trades. Many of the second-best prospects might have great careers with other teams, but it just won't work out for them with the Yankees. Even after A-rod's, Teixeira's, and CC's contracts expire, we all know there will be new big contracts handed out. If they do their moves right, we'll see another dynasty coming soon.
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
Looking back at the great career of Bernie Williams
Bernie Williams is not a Hall of Famer. But, he will always be remembered as a great Yankee and a winner. He appeared in 121 postseason games. When you go through his postseason stats, they're staggering. Just a .275 BA, but with 29 doubles, 22 homers, 80 RBI, and a .375 OBP in 121 games. Those would be darn good stats for a full season! In terms of postseason stats, he's second to Derek Jeter in games played, at-bats, plate appearances, runs scored, hits, total bases, singles, and doubles for the most all time. He's second in homers behind Manny Ramirez and still holds the all-time record for RBI. He's one of the best postseason performers of the wild card era.
He wasn't too shabby in the regular season either. He had a .297 career BA with 287 homers and a .381 OBP. He averaged 18 homers and 79 RBI per season in his career- not legendary stats, but he certainly was a huge part of every Yankee team he played for until the very end. He was a 5-time all star, a 4-time Gold Glover, and he won the American League batting title in 1998. For a time, from 1995 to 2002, Williams was one of the best players in baseball. He hit 194 of his homers, and averaged a .321 BA, 24 homers, 102 RBI, and a .406 OBP per season. After that point, like any regular player, he declined. But even as the clock was winding down on his career, Williams was still a productive player, hitting just a .263 BA from '03 to the end of his career in '06, but still averaged 15 homers, 65 RBI, and a .346 OBP. He played his last game shortly after his 38th birthday and later retired after a lengthy contract dispute. Speaking of the contract dispute after the '06 season, it perfectly exemplified Williams as a person. He was unhappy when the Yankees did not offer him a major league contract, but has since mended his relationship with the Yankees.
On the back of my dad's 1999 Yankees World Champions shirt, it has Bernie Williams' number 51. That's the way we'll remember him. He was a great player, a great person, and most of all, a winner.
He wasn't too shabby in the regular season either. He had a .297 career BA with 287 homers and a .381 OBP. He averaged 18 homers and 79 RBI per season in his career- not legendary stats, but he certainly was a huge part of every Yankee team he played for until the very end. He was a 5-time all star, a 4-time Gold Glover, and he won the American League batting title in 1998. For a time, from 1995 to 2002, Williams was one of the best players in baseball. He hit 194 of his homers, and averaged a .321 BA, 24 homers, 102 RBI, and a .406 OBP per season. After that point, like any regular player, he declined. But even as the clock was winding down on his career, Williams was still a productive player, hitting just a .263 BA from '03 to the end of his career in '06, but still averaged 15 homers, 65 RBI, and a .346 OBP. He played his last game shortly after his 38th birthday and later retired after a lengthy contract dispute. Speaking of the contract dispute after the '06 season, it perfectly exemplified Williams as a person. He was unhappy when the Yankees did not offer him a major league contract, but has since mended his relationship with the Yankees.
On the back of my dad's 1999 Yankees World Champions shirt, it has Bernie Williams' number 51. That's the way we'll remember him. He was a great player, a great person, and most of all, a winner.
Sunday, December 19, 2010
Greinke to Milwaukee
I am completely shocked. I didn't think the Yankees would get him, but when was the last time the Milwaukee Brewers made such a big trade? Anyway, let's review the trade. The trade is RHP Zack Greinke and SS Yuniesky Betancourt for SS Alcides Escobar, CF Lorenzo Cain, and RHP's Jeremy Jeffress and Jake Odorizzi.
Greinke, after his dazzling 2009, did not put up great numbers in '10, going 10-14 with a 4.17 ERA and 181 K's in 33 starts and 220 IP. But, a closer look at his stats certainly shows you something interesting. After posting a 2.56 ERA in April (somehow going 0-2), he posted a 4.37 ERA from May until the end of July (although his record was 7-8). Every pitcher has bad stretches, and a 4.37 ERA isn't even that bad. Greinke then proceeded to post a 3.16 ERA in August, improving his ERA to 3.81. But then, he posted a 5.92 ERA in September. Still, he posted a 2-3 record that month. How? Well, he won the 2 games he pitched against teams with winning records, and posted 3 losses and a no-decision in his other starts. He just got bored. Being on the Royals can do that to you. Milwaukee is getting an amazing pitcher who will tear up the National League. You might even be able to make an argument that Milwaukee's top 4 in their rotation (Greinke, Yovani Gollardo, Shaun Marcum, and Randy Wolf) if the second best top 4 in the NL behind you-know-who, the South Beach of starting pitching, Philadelphia. It would not surprise me or anyone if Greinke finishes at least a solid third in the Cy Young award voting in the NL behind if anyone, Halladay and Lee.
Everyone likes Yuniesky Betancourt, right? Of course not. Betancourt is one of those players who starts on bad teams. Good thing the Brewers have Craig Counsell, right? (They also have a SS prospect named Luis Cruz who did well at Triple-A last year.) They better not start Betancourt, who has played 9 games at 2nd base during his career. So, how bad is Betancourt? At first glance, not so bad. He hit .259 in '10 with 29 doubles, 16 homers, and 78 RBI. Isn't that pretty good? Well, not really when you post a .288 OBP. His career high in OBP is .310. His career OBP is under .300 (.296). You just can't have a below-.300 OBP and expect to be a regular on a good team. The thing is though, how did he manage to drive in 78 run if he's such a bad player. The answer: pure luck. He hit .257 with runners in scoring position on the Royals! He just got lucky and had 152 at-bats in those situations. He had just 39 hits, but drove in 61 runs. The Brewers will certainly not give him that many at-bats (he had 588 overall in '10). Betancourt's 78 RBI were certainly a fluke that he will not replicate in 2011, even if he were to be given enough at-bats. And that's just his hitting! He posted a .974 Fld% at SS in '10, committing 18 errors (3 times as many as Derek Jeter). The league average Fld% at SS was .973. Even though he did show somewhat better range than Jeter, that's just bad. Betancourt is a bad player. The Royals are lucky to get rid of him.
Alcides Escobar was supposed to be the Brewers' shortstop for a long time. Well, that certainly didn't happen. Escobar appeared to have such a promising future after hitting .306, .328, and a .298 in the minors '07, '08, and '09 while stealing 98 bases. He got his chance in the majors in '10, but he just wasn't good enough. He hit .325 with 14 doubles, 4 homers, 41 RBI, just 10 stolen bases, and, get this, the same OBP as Yuniesky Betancourt had in '10, .288. That's bad. I did withhold the fact that he did have 10 triples, third in the NL. Still, he certainly was a huge disappointment. And don't get me started on his defense. He posted a .967 Fld% at SS (the NL average was .971), with Derek Jeter-esque range (I mean that in a bad way). The Royals better hope and pray that Escobar develops into the player that his minor league stats 'said' he was going to be.
Cain had an exceptional year between the minors and majors in '10. He hit .317 in 84 minor league games with 11 doubles, 3 homers, 27 RBI, 9 triples, 27 SB, and a .402 OBP. He then hit .306 in the majors with 11 doubles, 1 homer, 13 RBI, 1 triple, 7 SB, and a .348 OBP in 43 major league games. He posted a .972 Fld% in CF in the minors, with 4 outfield assists, while posting a .980 Fld% with 2 assists in the majors. Cain's outfield assists count seems to be tied with his fielding percentage: in four minor league seasons, Cain posted a fielding percentage of .990 or better, but had no more than 3 outfield assists in any of those seasons. In the four minor league seasons besides '10 that Cain posted an ERA under .990 , Cain had no fewer than 8 outfield assists, including a ridiculous 15 outfield assists in 2006 (he did post just a .960 Fld% that season). Cain has a lot of potential and could be a fixture in the Royals outfield for a long time.
As if I haven't talking about enough misfits in this post, let me talk about Jeremy Jeffress. He has been suspended not once, but twice, for using marijuana. Simply put, that's not good. But, the righty reliever did well in both the minors and majors, posting a 2.23 ERA and 4 saves in 23 minor league appearances and a 2.70 ERA in 10 appearances for the Brewers. He could certainly be the next Royals closer after Joakim Soria leaves. They just need to keep him out of trouble.
Odorizzi is a righy starter that unlike the other players in this deal, has never played above Short Season-A ball. But, he did go 7-3 in '10 with a 3.43 ERA and 135 K's (10.1 K/9) in 20 starts, 3 relief appearances, and 120.2 IP at SS-A Wisconsin. He certainly has potential, and could be 'the next Greinke in a couple of years' (what the Royals stated they wanted) if he pans out.
This is an interesting trade for the Royals. Potentially, they could get four star players from this trade. But, there's a good chance that Escobar and Odorizzi don't pan out. It's a calculated gamble, and they better hope they're right. This is a great trade for the Brewers. For the prospects gave up, they all had reasons to trade them. Escobar was a disappointment, and they have Luis Cruz. For Cain, they have Carlos Gomez. Jeffress certainly has his problems, and you never know with Odorizzi, so it may have been worth it to trade him while his value was high. In return for these prospects, the Brewers got a star pitcher to cement their pitching staff in Greinke and will now be contenders in the NL Central and will certainly have an opportunity to win it.
Greinke, after his dazzling 2009, did not put up great numbers in '10, going 10-14 with a 4.17 ERA and 181 K's in 33 starts and 220 IP. But, a closer look at his stats certainly shows you something interesting. After posting a 2.56 ERA in April (somehow going 0-2), he posted a 4.37 ERA from May until the end of July (although his record was 7-8). Every pitcher has bad stretches, and a 4.37 ERA isn't even that bad. Greinke then proceeded to post a 3.16 ERA in August, improving his ERA to 3.81. But then, he posted a 5.92 ERA in September. Still, he posted a 2-3 record that month. How? Well, he won the 2 games he pitched against teams with winning records, and posted 3 losses and a no-decision in his other starts. He just got bored. Being on the Royals can do that to you. Milwaukee is getting an amazing pitcher who will tear up the National League. You might even be able to make an argument that Milwaukee's top 4 in their rotation (Greinke, Yovani Gollardo, Shaun Marcum, and Randy Wolf) if the second best top 4 in the NL behind you-know-who, the South Beach of starting pitching, Philadelphia. It would not surprise me or anyone if Greinke finishes at least a solid third in the Cy Young award voting in the NL behind if anyone, Halladay and Lee.
Everyone likes Yuniesky Betancourt, right? Of course not. Betancourt is one of those players who starts on bad teams. Good thing the Brewers have Craig Counsell, right? (They also have a SS prospect named Luis Cruz who did well at Triple-A last year.) They better not start Betancourt, who has played 9 games at 2nd base during his career. So, how bad is Betancourt? At first glance, not so bad. He hit .259 in '10 with 29 doubles, 16 homers, and 78 RBI. Isn't that pretty good? Well, not really when you post a .288 OBP. His career high in OBP is .310. His career OBP is under .300 (.296). You just can't have a below-.300 OBP and expect to be a regular on a good team. The thing is though, how did he manage to drive in 78 run if he's such a bad player. The answer: pure luck. He hit .257 with runners in scoring position on the Royals! He just got lucky and had 152 at-bats in those situations. He had just 39 hits, but drove in 61 runs. The Brewers will certainly not give him that many at-bats (he had 588 overall in '10). Betancourt's 78 RBI were certainly a fluke that he will not replicate in 2011, even if he were to be given enough at-bats. And that's just his hitting! He posted a .974 Fld% at SS in '10, committing 18 errors (3 times as many as Derek Jeter). The league average Fld% at SS was .973. Even though he did show somewhat better range than Jeter, that's just bad. Betancourt is a bad player. The Royals are lucky to get rid of him.
Alcides Escobar was supposed to be the Brewers' shortstop for a long time. Well, that certainly didn't happen. Escobar appeared to have such a promising future after hitting .306, .328, and a .298 in the minors '07, '08, and '09 while stealing 98 bases. He got his chance in the majors in '10, but he just wasn't good enough. He hit .325 with 14 doubles, 4 homers, 41 RBI, just 10 stolen bases, and, get this, the same OBP as Yuniesky Betancourt had in '10, .288. That's bad. I did withhold the fact that he did have 10 triples, third in the NL. Still, he certainly was a huge disappointment. And don't get me started on his defense. He posted a .967 Fld% at SS (the NL average was .971), with Derek Jeter-esque range (I mean that in a bad way). The Royals better hope and pray that Escobar develops into the player that his minor league stats 'said' he was going to be.
Cain had an exceptional year between the minors and majors in '10. He hit .317 in 84 minor league games with 11 doubles, 3 homers, 27 RBI, 9 triples, 27 SB, and a .402 OBP. He then hit .306 in the majors with 11 doubles, 1 homer, 13 RBI, 1 triple, 7 SB, and a .348 OBP in 43 major league games. He posted a .972 Fld% in CF in the minors, with 4 outfield assists, while posting a .980 Fld% with 2 assists in the majors. Cain's outfield assists count seems to be tied with his fielding percentage: in four minor league seasons, Cain posted a fielding percentage of .990 or better, but had no more than 3 outfield assists in any of those seasons. In the four minor league seasons besides '10 that Cain posted an ERA under .990 , Cain had no fewer than 8 outfield assists, including a ridiculous 15 outfield assists in 2006 (he did post just a .960 Fld% that season). Cain has a lot of potential and could be a fixture in the Royals outfield for a long time.
As if I haven't talking about enough misfits in this post, let me talk about Jeremy Jeffress. He has been suspended not once, but twice, for using marijuana. Simply put, that's not good. But, the righty reliever did well in both the minors and majors, posting a 2.23 ERA and 4 saves in 23 minor league appearances and a 2.70 ERA in 10 appearances for the Brewers. He could certainly be the next Royals closer after Joakim Soria leaves. They just need to keep him out of trouble.
Odorizzi is a righy starter that unlike the other players in this deal, has never played above Short Season-A ball. But, he did go 7-3 in '10 with a 3.43 ERA and 135 K's (10.1 K/9) in 20 starts, 3 relief appearances, and 120.2 IP at SS-A Wisconsin. He certainly has potential, and could be 'the next Greinke in a couple of years' (what the Royals stated they wanted) if he pans out.
This is an interesting trade for the Royals. Potentially, they could get four star players from this trade. But, there's a good chance that Escobar and Odorizzi don't pan out. It's a calculated gamble, and they better hope they're right. This is a great trade for the Brewers. For the prospects gave up, they all had reasons to trade them. Escobar was a disappointment, and they have Luis Cruz. For Cain, they have Carlos Gomez. Jeffress certainly has his problems, and you never know with Odorizzi, so it may have been worth it to trade him while his value was high. In return for these prospects, the Brewers got a star pitcher to cement their pitching staff in Greinke and will now be contenders in the NL Central and will certainly have an opportunity to win it.
Saturday, December 18, 2010
A brief thought on Cliff Lee going to the Phillies
Everybody is shocked. How the heck did Cliff Lee turn down both the Yankees' money and the Rangers' proximity to his home an his great experience there this past season? Well, after thinking about it, there is a simple reason that Cliff Lee signed with the Phillies. Lee's plan was to go to Philadelphia the whole time. The only question was whether the Phillies would make an offer that was anywhere near the offers of the Yankees and Phillies. They did, so he signed. But, what was Lee's reasoning behind the move? He never wanted to leave. Lee and his wife loved Philadelphia. Lee had spent just half a season there, but was already talking about a contract extension after the season. But, then the Phillies traded for Roy Halladay, and apparently because of budget issues (how ironic!), they were forced to trade Lee to Seattle. Lee was upset, but he appeared to move on after the season started. He then got traded to Texas, led them to a World Series, and started saying 'we' when referring to the team. Acting like that to the Mariners and Rangers was just a negotiation strategy. He even had his wife look for a house in New York with CC Sabathia's wife, possibly for an ulterior motive as well. Acting like such a 'darling' with the other teams made them think they had a chance at signing him (the Mariners tried to sign Lee to an extension) to up the Phillies' offer. It was a great a move by Lee and his agent, but as a Yankee fan I hate it, and so should all other Yankee fans and all Ranger fans. He used us all.
Thursday, December 9, 2010
Crawford to Boston
OF Carl Crawford has agreed to a 7 year, 142 million dollar contract with the Boston Red Sox. That gives the Red Sox four starting outfielders (Crawford, Mike Cameron, J.D. Drew, and Jacoby Ellsbury), so Ellsbury is about to be traded, probably to San Diego as the player to be named in the Adrian Gonzalez deal.
First, let's look at this deal from Boston's standpoint. They're getting one of the best outfielders in baseball. Crawford had a ridiculous season in '10, hitting .307 with 30 doubles, 19 homers, 90 RBI, 13 triples, 110 runs, 184 hits, 47 SB (10 CS), and a .356 in 154 games for the Rays. His 13 triples led the league, while his 47 stolen bases were third, and his .307 BA was 9th. To put his stats in perspective, he had the same BA as Ryan Zimmerman, 1 less homer than Victor Martinez, as many stolen bases as Brett Gardner (1 more CS than him), and 1 less run than Miguel Cabrera (and Derek Jeter). He also posted a .994 Fld% in LF with 7 outfield assists, good enough to win a Gold Glove. He's just an amazing player, and he will be worth every penny of the 142 million.
How about Ellsbury though? Is Crawford that much better than him? Well, first of all, Ellsbury couldn't stay healthy in '10. That's obviously a problem. Even ignoring the injuries, let's look at his 2009, his best season. He hit .301 with 27 doubles, 8 homers, 60 RBI, 10 triples, 94 runs, 188 hits, 70 SB (12 CS), and a .355 OBP in 153 games. But, the more advanced metrics say that Ellsbury played very badly defensively in centerfield that season. More notable to me is his -9.7 UZR (9.7 runs below average Ultimate Zone Rating). He had a 21.3 UZR in '08, the year before. Crawford by the way, had an 18.5 UZR in '10. (Gardner posted a 21.9 UZR to lead all AL left fielders in '10.) Ellsbury just wasn't that great of a player for Boston. But, is he so bad to warrant the Red Sox paying Crawford about 18 million dollars more than Ellsbury will make in '10? No. Good job by the Red Sox to sign Crawford, but from an economic standpoint at least, it wasn't worth it to sign Crawford to replace Ellsbury for so much more money. The way that the Red Sox could resolve that would be to trade Mike Cameron. Of course, no other would team pay an outfielder that will be 38 in a month and who was hurt in '10 and has a .250 career batting average eight million dollars (he was a TERRIBLE signing). So, the Red Sox are going to be forced to trade Ellsbury.
Now, let's look at it from a Yankee standpoint. My first reaction to the signing was "Oh no, the Red Sox signed Crawford!". My second reaction was a very different one. The Red Sox signing Crawford isn't a good thing for the Yankees, but it isn't so bad for two reasons: 1) the Yankees can focus all their energies on signing Cliff Lee, knowing that they don't have Crawford as a backup plan (they just offered Lee a 7 year deal); and 2) both Gardner and Nick Swisher will be back in 2011.
First, let's look at this deal from Boston's standpoint. They're getting one of the best outfielders in baseball. Crawford had a ridiculous season in '10, hitting .307 with 30 doubles, 19 homers, 90 RBI, 13 triples, 110 runs, 184 hits, 47 SB (10 CS), and a .356 in 154 games for the Rays. His 13 triples led the league, while his 47 stolen bases were third, and his .307 BA was 9th. To put his stats in perspective, he had the same BA as Ryan Zimmerman, 1 less homer than Victor Martinez, as many stolen bases as Brett Gardner (1 more CS than him), and 1 less run than Miguel Cabrera (and Derek Jeter). He also posted a .994 Fld% in LF with 7 outfield assists, good enough to win a Gold Glove. He's just an amazing player, and he will be worth every penny of the 142 million.
How about Ellsbury though? Is Crawford that much better than him? Well, first of all, Ellsbury couldn't stay healthy in '10. That's obviously a problem. Even ignoring the injuries, let's look at his 2009, his best season. He hit .301 with 27 doubles, 8 homers, 60 RBI, 10 triples, 94 runs, 188 hits, 70 SB (12 CS), and a .355 OBP in 153 games. But, the more advanced metrics say that Ellsbury played very badly defensively in centerfield that season. More notable to me is his -9.7 UZR (9.7 runs below average Ultimate Zone Rating). He had a 21.3 UZR in '08, the year before. Crawford by the way, had an 18.5 UZR in '10. (Gardner posted a 21.9 UZR to lead all AL left fielders in '10.) Ellsbury just wasn't that great of a player for Boston. But, is he so bad to warrant the Red Sox paying Crawford about 18 million dollars more than Ellsbury will make in '10? No. Good job by the Red Sox to sign Crawford, but from an economic standpoint at least, it wasn't worth it to sign Crawford to replace Ellsbury for so much more money. The way that the Red Sox could resolve that would be to trade Mike Cameron. Of course, no other would team pay an outfielder that will be 38 in a month and who was hurt in '10 and has a .250 career batting average eight million dollars (he was a TERRIBLE signing). So, the Red Sox are going to be forced to trade Ellsbury.
Now, let's look at it from a Yankee standpoint. My first reaction to the signing was "Oh no, the Red Sox signed Crawford!". My second reaction was a very different one. The Red Sox signing Crawford isn't a good thing for the Yankees, but it isn't so bad for two reasons: 1) the Yankees can focus all their energies on signing Cliff Lee, knowing that they don't have Crawford as a backup plan (they just offered Lee a 7 year deal); and 2) both Gardner and Nick Swisher will be back in 2011.
Wednesday, December 8, 2010
Last season, my friend who's a Mets fan was talking to be about how the Jerry Manuel was using Pedro Feliciano way too much. It got me thinking. What are the effects of overworking a reliever? Do they flame out within a few years? How many seasons can they last while appearing in so many games? Let's find out.
The easiest way to find overworked relievers is to look at the single-season records for most appearances by a pitcher in one season (I used baseball-reference here). Feliciano is unsurprisingly number 4 on that list. Numbers 1-3 are Mike Marshall, Kent Tekulve, and Salomon Torres. Almost shockingly, all 3 of them are righties.
Marshall was a righty closer primarily in the 70's for 10 different teams. He debuted as a closer for the Montreal Expos in 1971, appearing in 66 games with a 5-8 record, saving 23 and striking out 85 in 111.1 IP. He had appeared in just 28 games the year before (5 starts). You would think that he would have worn down as the season went on, but the exact opposite occurred. He went 1-5 with a 6.30 ERA in the first half, and 4-3 with a 2.64 ERA in the second half. In 1972, he appeared in 65 games, but he did much better, going 14-8 out of the bullpen with a 1.78 ERA, 95 K's, and 18 saves in 116 IP. He was so good that the Expos put him in for 92 games in 1973, and he did not disappoint, going 14-11 while posting a 2.66 ERA, 124 K's and 31 saves (tops in the league) in 170 IP. After the season, the Expos traded him Marshall to the Dodgers. They must have thought that he would flame out after appearing in 92 games. At least in the short-term, they were wrong. In 1974 for the Dodgers, he set the record by appearing in an incredible 106 games, going 15-12 with a 2.42 ERA, 143 K's, and 21 saves (surprisingly tops in the league) in 208.1 IP. Yeah, over 200 IP out of the bullpen. In the seasons following 1974, Marshall averaged just 44 appearances per season, although he did appear in 90 games in 1979 at age 36. From the beginning of his career in 1967 to 1974, Marshall posted a 3.01 ERA. From 1975 until the end of his career in 1981, Marshall posted a 3.34 ERA. But, you can divide that 3.34 ERA into a 3.81 ERA in the 4 seasons after 1974 and a 2.95 ERA after that. Marshall apparently shows that a reliever can't keep up the 90+ games per season rate for too long and without being less durable and less effective for at least a few years after.
Tekulve was a righty closer for the Pirates, Phillies, and Reds from the mid-70's to the late 80's. After posting a 2.65 ERA and an average of 57 appearances per season in his first 3 major league seasons, Tekulve appeared in 91 games for the Pirates in 1978, going 8-7 with a 2.33 ERA, 77 K's, and 31 saves in 135.1 IP. He then appeared in 94 games for Pittsburgh in 1979, going 10-8 with a 2.75 ERA, 75 K's, and 31 saves again in 134.1 IP. After 1979, in the 10 seasons left in his career, Tekulve posted a 2.97 ERA and averaged 69 appearances per season. He even appeared in 85 games in '82 and 90 games in '87. He posted a 2.65 ERA from the beginning of his career to 1978. Tekulve didn't really wear down or become ineffective after appearing in 90 games in consecutive seasons. But is he the exception that proves the rule?
Torres was a righty middle reliever for 5 teams in the 90's and 00's (the decade of 2001 to 2010). He only saved 57 games his entire career. He posted a 4.48 ERA and an average of 31 games per season from 1993 from 2005 (he didn't appear in any games in the majors from 1998 to 2001 because he retired). In 2006, Torres went 3-6 with a 3.28 ERA, 72 K's, and 12 K's in 94 relief appearances and 93.1 IP. He posted a 5.47 ERA in 56 games in '07, and a 3.49 ERA in 71 games in 2008, his final season. He definitely lacked durability and effectiveness in '07, but he had his finest season in '08, saving 28 games in 71 appearances. Torres is in a different category than Marshall and Tekulve because he averaged many less innings per appearance than them primarily because he played more recently. Still, Torres does correspond to the hypothesis that appearing in 90 games causes relievers to be less durable and less effective, albeit to a lesser extent.
Other notable pitchers up there on the list include Paul Quantrill, Jon Rauch, Matt Capps, Scott Proctor, Heath Bell, and Mike Gonzalez.
Quantrill , another righty, is tied for 10th with 89 appearances in 2003 in addition to being tied for 22nd (two separate seasons), 61st, 96th, and 191st from other seasons) collapsed in 2005 at age 36 after 3 straight seasons with 86 or more appearances and 4 straight with 80.
Rauch, a righty reliever, is tied for 15th after appearing in 85 games in 2006 and 88 games in 2007 for the Nationals. He has averaged 69 appearances in the three seasons since, so he's been fine. His ERA after the two straight seasons with 85+ games has actually been better than before (3.66 to 3.74).
Capps, a righty closer, has been great despite making 85 appearances in his first full season at age 22 in '06, posting a 9-1 record with a 3.76 ERA. He has averaged 64 appearances, so he's certainly durable. He did post a 5.80 ERA in '09, but he's posted ERA's under 3.03 in the other three seasons including a 2.47 ERA and 42 saves in '10.
Bell, another righty closer, appeared in 81 games in '07, posting a 2.02 ERA. But, he posted a 2.77 ERA and an average of 70 appearances per season since. He certainly has been fine.
Gonzalez, a lefty closer, posted a great 2.42 ERA in 80 games in '09 for the Braves, but showed effects of the overuse in '10, suffering a shoulder injury in April, and posted a 4.01 ERA in 29 games overall.
Proctor, you may remember, was a righty middle reliever who the Yankees who was used by Joe Torre for 83 games in '06, posting a 3.52 ERA. Proctor was traded to the Dodgers at the trade deadline in '07 and posted a 3.65 ERA in 83 games overall. He has never been effective since, posting 6.09 ERA in 47 appearances since '07, including a 6.35 ERA in 6 relief appearances for Atlanta in '10. He missed all of '09 after undergoing Tommy John Surgery.
Now, let's talk about Feliciano. He has gone where few others have, pitching in 86 or more games the last 3 seasons, including 92 appearances in '10. Feliciano certainly a different case than Marshall, Tekulve, Torres, and the other pitchers listed above. Feliciano pitches for one or two batters at a a time while Marshall and Tekulve pitched often pitched 3 innings in an appearance, and Torres and the other active or recently active players pitched an inning per appearance. It has been about 50-50 whether these relievers have been able to be durable and effective after pitching in so many games. The data apparently shows that signing pitchers who have appeared in 80 more games in a season can be a risky proposition. But, I'll say it again, Feliciano is a different case. He may appear in a lot of games, but there's not nearly the stress on his arm that there was on the arms of Marshall, Tekulve, Torres, and all the other guys because he pitches so many less innings. Feliciano is not a risk to sign as a free agent. He does not have so much stress on his arm that he will fall apart any season now. He'll collapse eventually of course (not too many pitchers didn't collapse at the end of their careers), but when he's old (pending a serious injury). The Yankees and several other teams have been talking to Feliciano. If any of the teams can agree to terms with him, then they should by all means sign him.
The easiest way to find overworked relievers is to look at the single-season records for most appearances by a pitcher in one season (I used baseball-reference here). Feliciano is unsurprisingly number 4 on that list. Numbers 1-3 are Mike Marshall, Kent Tekulve, and Salomon Torres. Almost shockingly, all 3 of them are righties.
Marshall was a righty closer primarily in the 70's for 10 different teams. He debuted as a closer for the Montreal Expos in 1971, appearing in 66 games with a 5-8 record, saving 23 and striking out 85 in 111.1 IP. He had appeared in just 28 games the year before (5 starts). You would think that he would have worn down as the season went on, but the exact opposite occurred. He went 1-5 with a 6.30 ERA in the first half, and 4-3 with a 2.64 ERA in the second half. In 1972, he appeared in 65 games, but he did much better, going 14-8 out of the bullpen with a 1.78 ERA, 95 K's, and 18 saves in 116 IP. He was so good that the Expos put him in for 92 games in 1973, and he did not disappoint, going 14-11 while posting a 2.66 ERA, 124 K's and 31 saves (tops in the league) in 170 IP. After the season, the Expos traded him Marshall to the Dodgers. They must have thought that he would flame out after appearing in 92 games. At least in the short-term, they were wrong. In 1974 for the Dodgers, he set the record by appearing in an incredible 106 games, going 15-12 with a 2.42 ERA, 143 K's, and 21 saves (surprisingly tops in the league) in 208.1 IP. Yeah, over 200 IP out of the bullpen. In the seasons following 1974, Marshall averaged just 44 appearances per season, although he did appear in 90 games in 1979 at age 36. From the beginning of his career in 1967 to 1974, Marshall posted a 3.01 ERA. From 1975 until the end of his career in 1981, Marshall posted a 3.34 ERA. But, you can divide that 3.34 ERA into a 3.81 ERA in the 4 seasons after 1974 and a 2.95 ERA after that. Marshall apparently shows that a reliever can't keep up the 90+ games per season rate for too long and without being less durable and less effective for at least a few years after.
Tekulve was a righty closer for the Pirates, Phillies, and Reds from the mid-70's to the late 80's. After posting a 2.65 ERA and an average of 57 appearances per season in his first 3 major league seasons, Tekulve appeared in 91 games for the Pirates in 1978, going 8-7 with a 2.33 ERA, 77 K's, and 31 saves in 135.1 IP. He then appeared in 94 games for Pittsburgh in 1979, going 10-8 with a 2.75 ERA, 75 K's, and 31 saves again in 134.1 IP. After 1979, in the 10 seasons left in his career, Tekulve posted a 2.97 ERA and averaged 69 appearances per season. He even appeared in 85 games in '82 and 90 games in '87. He posted a 2.65 ERA from the beginning of his career to 1978. Tekulve didn't really wear down or become ineffective after appearing in 90 games in consecutive seasons. But is he the exception that proves the rule?
Torres was a righty middle reliever for 5 teams in the 90's and 00's (the decade of 2001 to 2010). He only saved 57 games his entire career. He posted a 4.48 ERA and an average of 31 games per season from 1993 from 2005 (he didn't appear in any games in the majors from 1998 to 2001 because he retired). In 2006, Torres went 3-6 with a 3.28 ERA, 72 K's, and 12 K's in 94 relief appearances and 93.1 IP. He posted a 5.47 ERA in 56 games in '07, and a 3.49 ERA in 71 games in 2008, his final season. He definitely lacked durability and effectiveness in '07, but he had his finest season in '08, saving 28 games in 71 appearances. Torres is in a different category than Marshall and Tekulve because he averaged many less innings per appearance than them primarily because he played more recently. Still, Torres does correspond to the hypothesis that appearing in 90 games causes relievers to be less durable and less effective, albeit to a lesser extent.
Other notable pitchers up there on the list include Paul Quantrill, Jon Rauch, Matt Capps, Scott Proctor, Heath Bell, and Mike Gonzalez.
Quantrill , another righty, is tied for 10th with 89 appearances in 2003 in addition to being tied for 22nd (two separate seasons), 61st, 96th, and 191st from other seasons) collapsed in 2005 at age 36 after 3 straight seasons with 86 or more appearances and 4 straight with 80.
Rauch, a righty reliever, is tied for 15th after appearing in 85 games in 2006 and 88 games in 2007 for the Nationals. He has averaged 69 appearances in the three seasons since, so he's been fine. His ERA after the two straight seasons with 85+ games has actually been better than before (3.66 to 3.74).
Capps, a righty closer, has been great despite making 85 appearances in his first full season at age 22 in '06, posting a 9-1 record with a 3.76 ERA. He has averaged 64 appearances, so he's certainly durable. He did post a 5.80 ERA in '09, but he's posted ERA's under 3.03 in the other three seasons including a 2.47 ERA and 42 saves in '10.
Bell, another righty closer, appeared in 81 games in '07, posting a 2.02 ERA. But, he posted a 2.77 ERA and an average of 70 appearances per season since. He certainly has been fine.
Gonzalez, a lefty closer, posted a great 2.42 ERA in 80 games in '09 for the Braves, but showed effects of the overuse in '10, suffering a shoulder injury in April, and posted a 4.01 ERA in 29 games overall.
Proctor, you may remember, was a righty middle reliever who the Yankees who was used by Joe Torre for 83 games in '06, posting a 3.52 ERA. Proctor was traded to the Dodgers at the trade deadline in '07 and posted a 3.65 ERA in 83 games overall. He has never been effective since, posting 6.09 ERA in 47 appearances since '07, including a 6.35 ERA in 6 relief appearances for Atlanta in '10. He missed all of '09 after undergoing Tommy John Surgery.
Now, let's talk about Feliciano. He has gone where few others have, pitching in 86 or more games the last 3 seasons, including 92 appearances in '10. Feliciano certainly a different case than Marshall, Tekulve, Torres, and the other pitchers listed above. Feliciano pitches for one or two batters at a a time while Marshall and Tekulve pitched often pitched 3 innings in an appearance, and Torres and the other active or recently active players pitched an inning per appearance. It has been about 50-50 whether these relievers have been able to be durable and effective after pitching in so many games. The data apparently shows that signing pitchers who have appeared in 80 more games in a season can be a risky proposition. But, I'll say it again, Feliciano is a different case. He may appear in a lot of games, but there's not nearly the stress on his arm that there was on the arms of Marshall, Tekulve, Torres, and all the other guys because he pitches so many less innings. Feliciano is not a risk to sign as a free agent. He does not have so much stress on his arm that he will fall apart any season now. He'll collapse eventually of course (not too many pitchers didn't collapse at the end of their careers), but when he's old (pending a serious injury). The Yankees and several other teams have been talking to Feliciano. If any of the teams can agree to terms with him, then they should by all means sign him.
Friday, December 3, 2010
Dunn to White Sox
The Chicago White Sox have signed 1B Adam Dunn to a 4-year, 56 million dollar deal. Dunn is one of the premier power hitters in the majors right now, having averaged 40 homers and 101 RBI the last 7 seasons. He also posted a .381 OBP over that same stretch. He's certainly a great offensive player, but considering the fact that he's replacing Paul Konerko, will he improve the White Sox?
Let's compare the stats of Dunn and Konerko. Dunn hit .260 with 36 doubles, 38 homers, 103 RBI, 85 runs, and a .356 OBP (his career low) in 158 games for the Nats. He posted a below-average .990 fielding percentage (Fld%) in 153 games at first base. Konerko hit .312 with 30 doubles, 39 homers, 111 RBI, 89 runs, and a .393 OBP (his career high) in 149 games. Using OPS+, Konerko was much more valuable than Dunn, posting a 158 OPS+ to Dunn's 138. He posted a league-average .994 Fld% in 125 games at first base. The cold hard stats say that Konerko was better than Dunn in '10. It's hard to disagree.
So, will Dunn make the White Sox' offense better than it was in '10? No. But, the White Sox made the right move in signing Dunn over Konerko. Why? There are 2 factors: 1) Dunn is 4 years younger than Konerko; and 2) Konerko had a career year. When next season begins, Dunn will be 31 and Konerko will be 35. Common sense says that Dunn has more good years left in him than Konerko. Also, although Konerko had a better year than Dunn in '10, he may not do that again. His career averages per full season are a .288 BA with 28 homers and 90 RBI (I took out 1997 when he appeared in 6 games, but kept 1998, when he appeared in 75). Dunn has hit .250 with 35 homers and 88 RBI. If both players return to their career averages, Konerko will still be better because he has a better BA and more RBI per season, but you have to keep in mind that the White Sox are better than Dunn's previous teams, the Reds and Nationals (along with the D-backs for half a season) were much worse than the White Sox so Dunn will get more RBI's and he has averaged 101 RBI the last 7 seasons. His career average for RBI's is skewed because he averages 57 RBI per season from '01 to '03. Also, you have to expect Konerko to begin declining within a couple years, so the Dunn will definitely be better over the next 4 seasons.
In conclusion, although it may look like the White Sox are actually going to regress offensively by signing Dunn over Konerko, the move is definitely the right one because Dunn will definitely be better than Konerko over the life of his contract.
Let's compare the stats of Dunn and Konerko. Dunn hit .260 with 36 doubles, 38 homers, 103 RBI, 85 runs, and a .356 OBP (his career low) in 158 games for the Nats. He posted a below-average .990 fielding percentage (Fld%) in 153 games at first base. Konerko hit .312 with 30 doubles, 39 homers, 111 RBI, 89 runs, and a .393 OBP (his career high) in 149 games. Using OPS+, Konerko was much more valuable than Dunn, posting a 158 OPS+ to Dunn's 138. He posted a league-average .994 Fld% in 125 games at first base. The cold hard stats say that Konerko was better than Dunn in '10. It's hard to disagree.
So, will Dunn make the White Sox' offense better than it was in '10? No. But, the White Sox made the right move in signing Dunn over Konerko. Why? There are 2 factors: 1) Dunn is 4 years younger than Konerko; and 2) Konerko had a career year. When next season begins, Dunn will be 31 and Konerko will be 35. Common sense says that Dunn has more good years left in him than Konerko. Also, although Konerko had a better year than Dunn in '10, he may not do that again. His career averages per full season are a .288 BA with 28 homers and 90 RBI (I took out 1997 when he appeared in 6 games, but kept 1998, when he appeared in 75). Dunn has hit .250 with 35 homers and 88 RBI. If both players return to their career averages, Konerko will still be better because he has a better BA and more RBI per season, but you have to keep in mind that the White Sox are better than Dunn's previous teams, the Reds and Nationals (along with the D-backs for half a season) were much worse than the White Sox so Dunn will get more RBI's and he has averaged 101 RBI the last 7 seasons. His career average for RBI's is skewed because he averages 57 RBI per season from '01 to '03. Also, you have to expect Konerko to begin declining within a couple years, so the Dunn will definitely be better over the next 4 seasons.
In conclusion, although it may look like the White Sox are actually going to regress offensively by signing Dunn over Konerko, the move is definitely the right one because Dunn will definitely be better than Konerko over the life of his contract.
Wednesday, December 1, 2010
Who will be the next Yankee closer?
Mariano Rivera is closing in on a 1 or 2 year deal with the Yankees, but we all know that the contract that he's about to sign will probably be his last contract. It's certainly not too early now to think about the next Yankee closer. In this post I will talk about the major league options, and the minor league options for down the line.
After Joba Chamberlain was transitioned back to the bullpen entering this past season, you would have thought that he was being groomed to be the next Yankee closer. But, then he had a disappointing '10, posting a 4.40 ERA. Let's examine his stats. He went 3-4 with the aforementioned 4.40 ERA in 73 relief appearances and 71.2 IP. He struck out 77 and walked 22. He allowed 6 home runs. Based on those stats, excluding ERA, Joba should have had a good year. He posted a great 9.7 K/9 ratio and a good 2.8 BB/9, which comes out to a really good 3.50 K/BB ratio. His 6 homers allowed in 71.2 IP came out to a 0.8 HR/9 ratio, which is certainly acceptable, and he had 3 saves. But, you probably noticed what stat I omitted: hits allowed. He allowed 71 hits- basically a hit per inning. That's not ridiculously bad in general, but it certainly is bad for a reliever.To put that into perspective, Rivera allowed just a 5.9 H/9. Even Joba himself posted a 7.2 H/9 from '07 to '08, and if he gets back to that, he'll be a great reliever. Bottom line, Joba needs to get more swings and misses. He has a great fastball and he should be a strikeout pitcher, not a pitch-to-contact pitcher. So, to summarize, could Joba potentially put it all together? Yes, and if so, he would be a very good closer. But, right now, it's unclear whether that will happen.
If not Joba, the other pitcher currently in the Yankee bullpen that has a chance to be the next closer is David Robertson. The expectations were very high for Robertson in '10 after he posted a 3.30 ERA and a ridiculous 13.0 K/9 in '09. During the first half of '10, Robertson certainly disappointed many people. He posted a 5.46 ERA in 31 relief appearances. Why was his ERA so high? Partially because of too many hits allowed, just like Joba. He struck out 32 in 29.2 IP, but he allowed 36 hits, which amounts to a 11.1 H/9 that was much worse than Joba. But also Robertson had another problem: too many walks. He walked 17 batters, a ratio of around 5.2 batters per 9 innings. Despite his 9.7 K/9, Robertson walked so many guys that his K/BB ratio was just 1.88. But, in the second half, Robertson got himself together. He posted a great 2.27 ERA in 33 apperances. He walked 17 again, but struck out 39 for an improved 2.29 K/BB ratio. But, the biggest reason that Robertson turned around was that he allowed 6.5 hits per 9 innings, definitely a huge improvement. If Robertson pitches as well as he did in the second half of '10 in 2011 and going forward, he'll certainly be a great closer candidate. He walks a few too many batters, but his incredible strikeout rate (11.3 K/9 for his career) certainly makes up for it as long as he gives up less than a hit per inning. Right now, I think that Robertson is more likely to be the next Yankee closer than Joba.
It seems like a strong possibility that the Yankees will re-sign Kerry Wood if no team offers him a closer job. Could he potentially be the next Yankee closer? Picture this potential contract: 3 years, let's say 27 million dollars, with a vesting option in 2014 if he records 30 saves in 2013. But, do the Yankeees think that Wood will stay healthy. Wood went 2-0 with a 0.69 ERA and 31 K's in 24 relief apperances and 26 IP for the Yankees in '10. He did walk 18, which amounts to a very bad 6.2 BB/9, but he allowed just 14 hits for a ridiuclous 4.8 H/9 ratio. He also gave up just 1 home run. I don't think that the Yankees should sign Wood more than 2 years, but because of the 0.69 ERA in '10 for the Yankees, I had to bring him up.
Minor leaguers:
There's been talk that Andrew Brackman could be the next Yankee closer, but he has nixed that by succeeding as a starter in '10.
J.B. Cox, the former Texas Longhorns closer who at one point was projected to succeed Rivera, and gone through some problems on and off the field. He'll turn 26 in May, and he's at Double-A right now. He's not eliminated from the running, but I'd give him like a 1% chance of ever closing for the Yankees.
Ryan Pope functioned as Double-A Trenton's closer, going 4-6 with a 4.20 ERA, 17 saves, and 85 K's in 39 relief appearances along with 7 starts and 94.1 IP. He walked just 31, but his Achilles' heel was the home run- he gave up 10. He gave up 8.4 hits per 9 innings, but you just can't give up a homer every 9 innings (a 1.0 HR/9 ratio). The amount of homers he's given up doesn't bode well for him. Mariano Rivera gave up 10 home runs between August 12th, 2008 and September 19th, 2010. He'll turn 24 in May, so he has a little time to fix his homer problem. We'll see him in the big leagues within a couple of years, but probably never as a closer.
Always have to bring up Pat Venditte when I can. The switch-pitcher has 51 minor league saves including 6 at High-A Tampa in '10 along with a 1.73 ERA. Minor league hitters just can't seem to hit him, hence his 1.70 career ERA and 11.2 career K/9. He also has great control, as he has walked just 1.9 batters per 9 innings, and posted a ridiculous 6.06 K/BB ratio. He also doesn't allow any hits- just 6.5 per 9 innings, or hit anybody- just 2 hit batsmen in 3 minor league seasons. He's just been great. Will he be able to master major league hitters the same way? Well, first he has to master Double-A and Triple-A hitters. He's already 25 years old, so he better begin dominating them soon and get in the majors by 2012. When he does make the majors, I'll probably be one of 1.5 million bloggers doing posts on him. But, will he ever close for the Yankees? No chance. His upside is the best situational reliever ever, not a closer. He could potentially mow down major league hitters left and right (pun intended), but he just doesn't have the stuff to close games for the New York Yankees.
21 year old right-hander Chase Whitley worked as closer at Short Season-A (SS-A) Staten Island, posting a 1.45 ERA and 15 saves. He won't be the next Yankee closer, but he could potentially be the closer in 4 years (being part of the bullpen in 3 years) if both Joba and Robertson aren't good enough. He was drafted in 2010 and I did a short bio on him here: Analysis on all 50 Yankee draft picks
15. Chase Whitley, a 20 year old RHP from Troy was the Yankees' 15th round pick. He was Troy's closer. He had a decent fastball, 89-92 MPH, but he has 2 other pitches that are very good: a slider and a changeup. He averaged about a strikeout per inning in '10. He has a chance to be a pretty good reliever for the Yanks.
I'm not sure if he can function as a closer with a fastball that tops out at 92, but if his performance at Staten Island means anything, he has a chance.
Preston Claiborne debuted nicely at Staten Island in '10, going 1-2 with a 2.28 ERA, 2 saves, and 30 K's in 19 relief apperances and 23.2 IP. He walked 8 and allowed 20 hits. Possibly most impressive of all, he allowed no home runs. Claiborne also got a brief taste of High-A Tampa to finish the year, going 0-1 with a 3.68 ERA in 5 relief apperances. I wrote this about him in the above post:
7. In the 17th round, the Yankees drafted another RHP, Preston Claiborne from Tulane. He's been a reliever his whole college career. He showed good control at Tulane in '09 (29 K's, 12 walks), and pitched both as a long reliever and short reliever. With that Alrfredo Aceves-like versatility, we might see him in the Yankee bullpen at some point.
Whitley beat out Claiborne to be Staten Island's closer, but Claiborne definitely has some value. Maybe they'll both be in the bullpen in a few seasons. I doubt Claiborne will be the closer, though. Still, if Claiborne becomes Alfredo Aceves 2.0 (minor the injuries), the Yankees will definitely be happy.
Thomas Kahnle, another 2010 draftee, had a great pro debut for Staten Island, posting a 0.56 ERA in 11 relief apperances. He struck out 25 and walked just 5 in 16 innings. Those are all ridiculous stats. He was unhittable. And you thought that he was unhittable based on the stats above. No. He allowed 3 hits. 3 hits! That's a ratio of 1.7 hits per 9 innings. Wow.This guy might be something special. I wrote this about him in that post above about the Yankees' 2010 drafted players:
5. In the 5th round, the Yankees drafted 20 year old RHP Thomas Kahnle from Lynn University in Divison 2. Kahnle is going to be a reliever for the Yanks. He has a lot of potential, as evidenced by his playoff performance as a freshman. He was awarded the Most Outstanding Player award for the NCAA National Tournament and the South Region Tournament. (I haven't had this confirmed, but I'm sure the NCAA National Tournament is Division 2. Note that the Division 1 tournament is the College World Series.) The Yankees can never have enough good relievers, and hopefully Kahnle will be one of them.
The sky is the limit for this kid. He turned 21 in August. We'll see him in the majors within a couple of years, and I would not be surprised if one day, he's the Yankee closer.
Realistically, Joba or Robertson will be the next Yankee closer. But, theycould just be keeping the seat warm for one of these other guys. Although it was a very small sample size, I think that Kahnle really is that good. I think he'll end up being the Yankee closer in 2014 or 2015.
After Joba Chamberlain was transitioned back to the bullpen entering this past season, you would have thought that he was being groomed to be the next Yankee closer. But, then he had a disappointing '10, posting a 4.40 ERA. Let's examine his stats. He went 3-4 with the aforementioned 4.40 ERA in 73 relief appearances and 71.2 IP. He struck out 77 and walked 22. He allowed 6 home runs. Based on those stats, excluding ERA, Joba should have had a good year. He posted a great 9.7 K/9 ratio and a good 2.8 BB/9, which comes out to a really good 3.50 K/BB ratio. His 6 homers allowed in 71.2 IP came out to a 0.8 HR/9 ratio, which is certainly acceptable, and he had 3 saves. But, you probably noticed what stat I omitted: hits allowed. He allowed 71 hits- basically a hit per inning. That's not ridiculously bad in general, but it certainly is bad for a reliever.To put that into perspective, Rivera allowed just a 5.9 H/9. Even Joba himself posted a 7.2 H/9 from '07 to '08, and if he gets back to that, he'll be a great reliever. Bottom line, Joba needs to get more swings and misses. He has a great fastball and he should be a strikeout pitcher, not a pitch-to-contact pitcher. So, to summarize, could Joba potentially put it all together? Yes, and if so, he would be a very good closer. But, right now, it's unclear whether that will happen.
If not Joba, the other pitcher currently in the Yankee bullpen that has a chance to be the next closer is David Robertson. The expectations were very high for Robertson in '10 after he posted a 3.30 ERA and a ridiculous 13.0 K/9 in '09. During the first half of '10, Robertson certainly disappointed many people. He posted a 5.46 ERA in 31 relief appearances. Why was his ERA so high? Partially because of too many hits allowed, just like Joba. He struck out 32 in 29.2 IP, but he allowed 36 hits, which amounts to a 11.1 H/9 that was much worse than Joba. But also Robertson had another problem: too many walks. He walked 17 batters, a ratio of around 5.2 batters per 9 innings. Despite his 9.7 K/9, Robertson walked so many guys that his K/BB ratio was just 1.88. But, in the second half, Robertson got himself together. He posted a great 2.27 ERA in 33 apperances. He walked 17 again, but struck out 39 for an improved 2.29 K/BB ratio. But, the biggest reason that Robertson turned around was that he allowed 6.5 hits per 9 innings, definitely a huge improvement. If Robertson pitches as well as he did in the second half of '10 in 2011 and going forward, he'll certainly be a great closer candidate. He walks a few too many batters, but his incredible strikeout rate (11.3 K/9 for his career) certainly makes up for it as long as he gives up less than a hit per inning. Right now, I think that Robertson is more likely to be the next Yankee closer than Joba.
It seems like a strong possibility that the Yankees will re-sign Kerry Wood if no team offers him a closer job. Could he potentially be the next Yankee closer? Picture this potential contract: 3 years, let's say 27 million dollars, with a vesting option in 2014 if he records 30 saves in 2013. But, do the Yankeees think that Wood will stay healthy. Wood went 2-0 with a 0.69 ERA and 31 K's in 24 relief apperances and 26 IP for the Yankees in '10. He did walk 18, which amounts to a very bad 6.2 BB/9, but he allowed just 14 hits for a ridiuclous 4.8 H/9 ratio. He also gave up just 1 home run. I don't think that the Yankees should sign Wood more than 2 years, but because of the 0.69 ERA in '10 for the Yankees, I had to bring him up.
Minor leaguers:
There's been talk that Andrew Brackman could be the next Yankee closer, but he has nixed that by succeeding as a starter in '10.
J.B. Cox, the former Texas Longhorns closer who at one point was projected to succeed Rivera, and gone through some problems on and off the field. He'll turn 26 in May, and he's at Double-A right now. He's not eliminated from the running, but I'd give him like a 1% chance of ever closing for the Yankees.
Ryan Pope functioned as Double-A Trenton's closer, going 4-6 with a 4.20 ERA, 17 saves, and 85 K's in 39 relief appearances along with 7 starts and 94.1 IP. He walked just 31, but his Achilles' heel was the home run- he gave up 10. He gave up 8.4 hits per 9 innings, but you just can't give up a homer every 9 innings (a 1.0 HR/9 ratio). The amount of homers he's given up doesn't bode well for him. Mariano Rivera gave up 10 home runs between August 12th, 2008 and September 19th, 2010. He'll turn 24 in May, so he has a little time to fix his homer problem. We'll see him in the big leagues within a couple of years, but probably never as a closer.
Always have to bring up Pat Venditte when I can. The switch-pitcher has 51 minor league saves including 6 at High-A Tampa in '10 along with a 1.73 ERA. Minor league hitters just can't seem to hit him, hence his 1.70 career ERA and 11.2 career K/9. He also has great control, as he has walked just 1.9 batters per 9 innings, and posted a ridiculous 6.06 K/BB ratio. He also doesn't allow any hits- just 6.5 per 9 innings, or hit anybody- just 2 hit batsmen in 3 minor league seasons. He's just been great. Will he be able to master major league hitters the same way? Well, first he has to master Double-A and Triple-A hitters. He's already 25 years old, so he better begin dominating them soon and get in the majors by 2012. When he does make the majors, I'll probably be one of 1.5 million bloggers doing posts on him. But, will he ever close for the Yankees? No chance. His upside is the best situational reliever ever, not a closer. He could potentially mow down major league hitters left and right (pun intended), but he just doesn't have the stuff to close games for the New York Yankees.
21 year old right-hander Chase Whitley worked as closer at Short Season-A (SS-A) Staten Island, posting a 1.45 ERA and 15 saves. He won't be the next Yankee closer, but he could potentially be the closer in 4 years (being part of the bullpen in 3 years) if both Joba and Robertson aren't good enough. He was drafted in 2010 and I did a short bio on him here: Analysis on all 50 Yankee draft picks
15. Chase Whitley, a 20 year old RHP from Troy was the Yankees' 15th round pick. He was Troy's closer. He had a decent fastball, 89-92 MPH, but he has 2 other pitches that are very good: a slider and a changeup. He averaged about a strikeout per inning in '10. He has a chance to be a pretty good reliever for the Yanks.
I'm not sure if he can function as a closer with a fastball that tops out at 92, but if his performance at Staten Island means anything, he has a chance.
Preston Claiborne debuted nicely at Staten Island in '10, going 1-2 with a 2.28 ERA, 2 saves, and 30 K's in 19 relief apperances and 23.2 IP. He walked 8 and allowed 20 hits. Possibly most impressive of all, he allowed no home runs. Claiborne also got a brief taste of High-A Tampa to finish the year, going 0-1 with a 3.68 ERA in 5 relief apperances. I wrote this about him in the above post:
7. In the 17th round, the Yankees drafted another RHP, Preston Claiborne from Tulane. He's been a reliever his whole college career. He showed good control at Tulane in '09 (29 K's, 12 walks), and pitched both as a long reliever and short reliever. With that Alrfredo Aceves-like versatility, we might see him in the Yankee bullpen at some point.
Whitley beat out Claiborne to be Staten Island's closer, but Claiborne definitely has some value. Maybe they'll both be in the bullpen in a few seasons. I doubt Claiborne will be the closer, though. Still, if Claiborne becomes Alfredo Aceves 2.0 (minor the injuries), the Yankees will definitely be happy.
Thomas Kahnle, another 2010 draftee, had a great pro debut for Staten Island, posting a 0.56 ERA in 11 relief apperances. He struck out 25 and walked just 5 in 16 innings. Those are all ridiculous stats. He was unhittable. And you thought that he was unhittable based on the stats above. No. He allowed 3 hits. 3 hits! That's a ratio of 1.7 hits per 9 innings. Wow.This guy might be something special. I wrote this about him in that post above about the Yankees' 2010 drafted players:
5. In the 5th round, the Yankees drafted 20 year old RHP Thomas Kahnle from Lynn University in Divison 2. Kahnle is going to be a reliever for the Yanks. He has a lot of potential, as evidenced by his playoff performance as a freshman. He was awarded the Most Outstanding Player award for the NCAA National Tournament and the South Region Tournament. (I haven't had this confirmed, but I'm sure the NCAA National Tournament is Division 2. Note that the Division 1 tournament is the College World Series.) The Yankees can never have enough good relievers, and hopefully Kahnle will be one of them.
The sky is the limit for this kid. He turned 21 in August. We'll see him in the majors within a couple of years, and I would not be surprised if one day, he's the Yankee closer.
Realistically, Joba or Robertson will be the next Yankee closer. But, theycould just be keeping the seat warm for one of these other guys. Although it was a very small sample size, I think that Kahnle really is that good. I think he'll end up being the Yankee closer in 2014 or 2015.
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